Last week: Cincinnati tied with Philadelphia 13-13; Pittsburgh beat San Diego 11-10.

The Bengals have struggled with the Steelers at Paul Brown Stadium, losing the past eight meetings in Cincinnati. But, for some reason, they've had better luck at Heinz Field, winning two of the past three games.

The Bengals have had trouble scoring points, not managing more than 23 in any game this season. And it likely won't get any better against the Steelers, who have the league's top defense and allow fewer points than any other team but Tennessee.

One of the interesting subplots to the game, however, is what type of retaliation, if any, the Bengals will try against receiver Hynes Ward. It was Ward who delivered a vicious block on rookie linebacker Keith Rivers in the first meeting, breaking his jaw and ending his season. Ward's blocks are making defenders watch his every move, but he is also commanding attention for another reason: He has back-to-back 100-yard receiving games for the first time in six years. Ward is coming off an 11-catch performance against the Chargers.

The No. 1 key is protecting QB Ryan Fitzpatrick against the blitzing Steelers, who sacked him seven times in a 38-10 Bengals' Week 7 home loss on Oct. 19. Fitzpatrick needs to help the line by getting rid of the ball quickly. Fitzpatrick, who will make his sixth straight start, knows to attack the area vacated by the blitzer. He won't have much time to settle in the pocket and go through his progressions, so look for quick-out and quick-slant patterns to take advantage of the aggressive Steelers defense.

If anybody would be tired playing on a short week, it might be the Bengals, who had to play an entire extra period in their tie with the Eagles. The good news for the Steelers is that they came out of the Chargers game without any additional injuries, something that has not happened much this season. The Steelers let the Bengals hang around in the first meeting before putting them away with three fourth-quarter TDs.

However the weather could play a major factor in this caper as it did for the Steelers last Sunday against San Diego. With temperature hovering around 23 degrees and 50% chance of snow, I don't expect a high scoring affair. Take points and Bengals.

Carolina at Atlanta (-1.5)

Last week: Carolina beat Detroit 31-22; Atlanta lost to Denver 24-20.

Philadelphia at Baltimore (-1.5)

Last week: Philadelphia tied with Cincinnati 13-13; Baltimore lost to NY Giants 30-10.

New England at Miami (-1.5)

Last week: New England lost to NY Jets 34-31; Miami beat Oakland 17-15.

NY Jets at Tennessee (-4.5)

Last week: NY Jets beat New England 34-31; Tennessee beat Jacksonville 24-14.

Houston at Cleveland (-2.5)

Last week: Houston lost to Indianapolis 33-27; Cleveland beat Buffalo 29-27.

San Francisco at Dallas (-9.5)

Last week: San Francisco beat St-Louis 35-17; Dallas beat Washington 14-10.

Tampa Bay at Detroit (8.5)

Last week: Tampa Bay beat Minnesota 19-13; Detroit lost to Carolina 31-22.

Minnesota at Jacksonville (-1.5)

Last week: Minnesota lost to Tampa Bay 19-13; Jacksonville lost to Tennessee 24-14.

Buffalo at Kansas City (2.5)

Last week: Buffalo lost to Cleveland 29-27; Kansas City lost to New Orleans 30-20.

Chicago at St-Louis (8.5)

Last week: Chicago lost to Green Bay 37-3; St-Louis lost to San Francisco 35-16.

Oakland at Denver (-9.5

Last week: Oakland lost to Miami 17-15; Denver beat Atlanta 24-20.

NY Giants at Arizona (2.5)

Last week: NY Giants beat Baltimore 30-10; Arizona beat Seattle 26-20.

Washington at Seattle (3.5)

Last week: Washington lost to Dallas 14-10; Seattle lost to Arizona 26-20.

Indianapolis at San Diego (-2.5)

Last week: Indianapolis beat Houston 33-27; San Diego lost to Pittsburgh 11-10.

Green Bay at New Orleans (-2.5)

Last week: Green Bay beat Chicago 37-3; New Orleans beat Kansas City 30-20.

Last week: 9-5
Season: 69-75

NY Jets at New England (-3.5)

Last week: NY Jets beat St-Louis 47-3; New England beat Buffalo 20-10.

On one side is the aging gunslinger. On the other is the career backup suddenly coming into his own. The expectation is that Brett Favre is more capable of winning this game and Matt Cassel more likely to lose it, but Favre is the lifetime interceptions leader for a reason, and Cassel keeps managing games efficiently.

In last week's 47-3 victory over St. Louis, Favre had an interception-free game for the first time since opening day. He must keep that up against an opportunistic New England defense that is excellent at disguising its looks and coverages. In New England's 19-10 victory in September, the Jets sacked Cassel three times, but weren't really able to disrupt his rhythm. Now that they have much game film on Cassel to study, they need to use that to their advantage and keep him off-balance as much as possible.

Favre basically comes in two flavors nowadays -- playmaker and turnover machine. If the Pats can suppress the first and encourage the second, they should be in business. The key is holding their coverage downfield even after the play appears over, because that's when Favre is at his freelancing best. It will also be up to the coaching staff to confuse the 39-year-old into throwing into coverage. Favre did that in the teams' first meeting, resulting in the turnover that swung the game in New England's favor.

The Jets rank second in the NFL with 31 sacks and tied for third with four defensive touchdowns, and they're first with 14 forced fumbles. They make life particularly harrowing for opposing quarterbacks by bringing pressure from almost every angle. Cassel has greatly improved his ball protection skills, but he fumbled on Sunday against the Bills and can ill afford to turn the ball over against the Jets.

There's a reason the Patriots have won 11 of their last 12 against the Jets. They've consistently been more talented and better coached. However both gaps have shrunk considerably, especially since Mangini took over. This caper will come down to a field goal. Take Jets.

Denver at Atlanta (-5.5)

Last week: Denver beat Cleveland 34-30; Atlanta beat New Orleans 34-20.

This one pits two of the league's top young quarterbacks: Denver's Jay Cutler and Atlanta rookie Matt Ryan. With each start Cutler is proving that he was a better pick than Vince Young or Matt Leinart in the 2006 draft. Cutler is the only one of the three who remains a starter. Young was replaced by journeyman Kerry Collins in Tennessee. Leinart is watching Kurt Warner in Arizona.

Ryan, the first quarterback drafted in 2008, shows he can make all of the throws and has the Falcons are off to an improbable 6-3 start.

The Falcons are undefeated at home with victories over Detroit, Kansas City, Chicago and New Orleans. They are masters of jumping out to early leads. Last week against the Saints they scored on three of their first four possessions to go up 17-6 at halftime. They led 21-0 against Detroit, 14-0 against Kansas City and 6-0 against Chicago after the first quarter.

They have outscored the opposition 75-17 in the first quarter. Those 75 points make them tops in the NFL. That bodes well against Denver's defense which continues to be a mess. There's a long-shot chance cornerback Champ Bailey could return but the defense will be playing with three linebackers who started the season on the bench. Denver is wildly inconsistent against the run. Atlanta's RB Michael Turner victimized the Broncos as a backup in San Diego. While Ryan has been a revelation, you can bet the Falcons would be happy to pound away at a smallish defense that has yielded at least 4.6 yards per carry in all but two games and is vulnerable to the long run.

Atlanta's schedule is tough in the last seven with the only easy game being at home against St. Louis to end the season. Denver has had a bunch of injuries at RB, so many that they had to re-sign Tatum Bell. He's a former Bronco, so the adjustment should be smooth. The most interesting battle in this game for me is the passing game of Cutler versus the Atlanta secondary. The three interceptions off Drew Brees tell that the Falcons secondary is improving. This is a tough game to pick. One the one hand, you have the Broncos with extra time to prepare, but Atlanta is so good at home and at winning the time of possession battle with Turner and should prevail. Take Falcons.

Chicago at Green Bay (-3.5)

Last week: Chicago lost to Tennessee 21-14; Green Bay lost to Minnesota 28-27.

The Packers and Bears are in a dogfight with the Minnesota Vikings for the NFC North lead. The Packers are in the worst position of the three and absolutely need to win this game to stay in the race. It's unlikely that any of the three will be good enough to compete for a wild-card berth, so the division title is the sole path to the playoffs.

The Bears have had the Packers' number, winning three of the past four in Green Bay, including both games in which Mike McCarthy was coach. The Bears have confounded the Packers' offense and special teams in recent games.

The Packers are coming off two very difficult losses that easily could have been victories. How they respond to the latest loss, a heartbreaking 28-27 defeat to the Vikings, will be anybody's guess. They are not invincible at home, having lost to the Dallas Cowboys and Atlanta Falcons, and their struggles with the Bears will make this a difficult game to win.

The Bears may get quarterback Kyle Orton (ankle) back; that would be a huge lift. The Packers have relied heavily on their secondary to provide turnovers and points, but Orton is careful with the ball and won't take huge chances against cornerback Charles Woodson and safety Nick Collins, who together have five touchdowns.

The Bears' secondary was picked apart in recent weeks; the past four opposing quarterbacks have put up season-high numbers. Fixing the problem won't be easy. The line has been generating little pressure and the team has committed so much to stopping the run with eight-man fronts that the secondary has been exposed through the air. There have been grumblings in the locker room about the Tampa 2 scheme but coach Lovie Smith insists everyone is on board. Together or not, the Bears must get more pressure up front and the secondary must play better in press coverage on the outside.

This will be a typically hard-hitting game between two division rivals, but it won't be a defensive battle. There should be a lot of points because both defenses are playing poorly. The Bears can't stop the pass and the Packers can't stop the run. Look for both sides to exploit those weaknesses. This should be a bounce-back game for Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers who gets to play at home and on grass where opposing pass rushers shouldn't be as dominant. Take Packers.

San Diego at Pittsburgh (-3.5)

Last week: San Diego beat Kansas City 20-19; Pittsburgh lost to Indianapolis 24-20.

This is the fourth consecutive opponent against a 2007 playoff team for the Steelers, who are 1-2 in the previous three, and both losses (Giants, Colts) have come at home. The Steelers have blown fourth-quarter leads in each of those losses.

This is an important game for both teams, maybe even more so for the Chargers because they're 4-4 and cannot afford too many more losses if they want to return to the playoffs. They avoided a debilitating loss to the Chiefs in the final seconds, a game that displayed the problems they've been having this season. Like the Steelers, the Chargers are just a couple plays away from a different record, as five losses have come by a total of 25 points.

The game is also a matchup of quarterbacks from the same draft class – Ben Roethlisberger and Philip Rivers, each of whom has struggled this season. Roethlisberger has thrown just one touchdown and eight interceptions in the past three games, raising questions about the health of his throwing arm because of a nagging shoulder sprain. The Chargers, meanwhile, have had little success in Pittsburgh, at least during the regular season. They are 0-12 there in the regular season, but 2-0 in playoff games.

As bad and banged up as the back end of the Chargers defense is, this game will be decided up front. They need to get pressure and contain Roethlisberger, though he will likely employ the quick-pass strategy he did against the Colts last week. But as the defense evolves under Ron Rivera, it needs to involve more players committed to getting the quarterback. Close is not good enough.

if the Chargers can make the Steelers one-dimensional they have a chance. Yes, the Chargers' pass defense ranks last in the league, and they're hurting at cornerback. But Roethlisberger is hurting, and the Steelers will be hard-pressed to win one-dimensionally.

The Chargers have struggled in too many areas this season, particularly on defense, and have looked nothing like the team that lost only seven games the past two seasons combined. The Steelers' biggest problems this season have been on offense, and a lot can be traced to injuries to Roethlisberger, running back Willie Parker and left tackle Marvel Smith as well as season-ending injuries to RB Rashard Mendenhall and right guard Kendall Simmons. Their defense has been very good, but they've lacked the splash plays when they've needed them in the fourth quarter. Take Chargers.

Tennessee at Jacksonville (2.5)

Last week: Tennessee beat Chicago 21-14; Jacksonville beat Detroit 38-14.

The league's last unbeaten team, Tennessee hits the road to play struggling Jacksonville, which lost games to lowly Cleveland and Cincinnati before recovering last week in Detroit. Despite the disparity in records, meetings between the Titans and Jaguars always shape up to be hotly-contested affairs. This won't be any different.

After winning its first game in three, Jacksonville clings to fading hopes of a second-consecutive trip to the postseason. The Titans, meanwhile, are on a franchise-record 12-game tear in the regular season with the opportunity to eliminate the Jags from the division race.

Compounding Jacksonville's slim prospects for an upset seems to be turmoil within the team. Middle linebacker Mike Peterson appears to have lost his starting position and leading receiver Matt Jones awaits the league's decision concerning his appeal of a three-game drug suspension. Jags coach Jack Del Rio recently tightened team rules -- which many have said had become too lax -- in an effort to sharpen his team's focus and preparation for the second half of the season.

The Titans, the league's sixth-best rushing team, are coming off a 20-yard performance against the Bears, yet face a Jags team that has struggled this season against the run.

The Jaguars are 16-4 under Del Rio when they rush for 150 yards or more. So the club needs to establish the run at all costs against Tennessee's swarming defense. For the first time all season, the Jaguars appear to be gaining a little continuity along the offensive line, which should help the club's efforts to run the ball.

The Titans QB has proved to be effective at diagnosing the blitz and getting the ball in the hands of the correct receiver. Jacksonville needs to recognize this and act accordingly. Collins stung the Jags in the first meeting every time they brought an all-out blitz. Jacksonville would be wise to mix up the coverages against the Titans and rely mostly on Cover 2.

As crazy as it sounds, the Jaguars appear to have a legitimate shot at unseating the Titans, mainly because of their improvement along the offensive line. In the first meeting, Tennessee sacked David Garrard seven times. That likely won't happen in this meeting. Then again, an upset likely won't happen either. The Jaguars just don't possess enough offensive firepower to put Tennessee's defense on its heels. With Matt Jones as the leading receiver, it's highly unlikely he'll command a Titans double team that would take run defenders out of the tackle box. So the Titans should snuff out Jacksonville's rushing attack with no problems. And when the Jags can't run, they've proven they can't win. Take Titans.

Dallas at Washington (1.5)

Last week: Dallas lost to NY Giants 35-14 two weeks ago; Washington lost to Pittsburgh 23-6 two weeks ago.

Dallas is desperate, and the Redskins have not played well of late. The Redskins were physically handled by Pittsburgh and looked sloppy in wins over Cleveland and Detroit -- after losing to St. Louis. However, they match up well against Dallas because they can run the ball on the Cowboys and because they have the secondary to match their receivers. As long as Campbell avoids mistakes, the Redskins will be able to move the ball on this defense.

However, having Tony Romo back at quarterback means everything for Dallas. Neither Brad Johnson or Brookes Bollinger got the job done, but with Romo back against a Redskins secondary that will give up passing yards, one play can make a difference. Take Cowboys.

Detroit at Carolina (-13.5)

Last week: Detroit lost to Jacksonville 38-14; Carolina beat Oakland 17-6.

Looking for a way the Lions could pull off the upset for their first win is tough. There's not a lot to point to in their favor this week, other than the possible element of surprise that comes with facing a still-new passer. Otherwise, expect the Panthers to be fired up. Their defense played at a high level last week, but the offense has a lot to answer for.

As the Panthers enter the most difficult portion of their schedule, with four of their final six games on the road, this is one they can't let slip through their fingers. Indeed, the spread is lofty but carefully… Take Panthers.

Houston at Indianapolis (-8.5)

Last week: Houston lost to Baltimore 41-13; Indianapolis beat Pittsburgh 24-20.

Serious playoff contenders win matchups against noncontenders. Indy is gaining momentum after handling a pair of division leaders -- New England and Baltimore -- and that has to continue to build against the Texans. Houston has been forced to turn to backup QB Sage Rosenfels, who's been prone to turning the ball over. He had three turnovers in the first meeting with Indy and had four interceptions in Houston's loss to Baltimore on Sunday. As of late, the Colts have made a habit of winning late in the fourth quarter and the high spread seems precarious, nevertheless… Take Colts

Philadelphia at Cincinnati (8.5)

Last week: Philadelphia lost to NY Giants 36-31; Cincinnati beat Jacksonville 21-19 two weeks ago.

For several weeks now, the Bengals have claimed that all they've needed was one breakthrough victory, and more would come with machine-gun rapidity. Here's their chance to prove it. It took eight games, but the Bengals are finally beginning to mesh on both sides of the ball. The skill position players are in better tune with QB Ryan Fitzpatrick; the defense is playing a more fundamentally-sound brand of ball; and the kicking and coverage units are more consistent. Be aware: The Bengals are 3-0 all-time at home against Philadelphia and they lead the overall series, 7-3. Against Philly, the Bengals have their highest winning percentage (.700) against any foe. In a close one. Take points and Bengals.

New Orleans at Kansas City (4.5)

Last week: New Orleans lost to Atlanta 34-20; Kansas City lost to San Diego 20-19.

The most exciting thing about Chiefs football is that they just may have found a quarterback to build on in Tyler Thigpen. Statistically, he's not very impressive, but he is improving with every start. The last seven games for him have meant a lot for his development. The Saints biggest problem has been inconsistency. Win one, lose two, win one, lose one, win another, and lose another. Let's stick to the pattern and take Saints to win by a touchdown. Take Saints.

Baltimore at NY Giants (-6.5)

Last week: Baltimore beat Houston 41-13; NY Giants beat Philadelphia 36-31.

The Giants are a perfect 5-0 at home after struggling at Giants Stadium (6-10) the past two seasons. Keeping that unblemished record intact against a powerful opponent won't be easy but the Ravens in some ways are tailor-made for the Giants. The Ravens want to run the ball and allow Flacco to manage the game, avoid mistakes and take deep shots downfield only when they are there. Running the ball on the Giants is no picnic, as evidenced by the way they stuffed Brian Westbrook (13-26) last weekend at Lincoln Financial Field. Flacco has been impressive leading an attack that has scored at least 27 points in every game of the current four-game winning streak but the Ravens do not want to put too much of a burden on the first-year players, something the Giants want to see happen. Manning should be able to find openings in the Baltimore secondary, but will he find enough to cover the spread? Giants will win but the Ravens keep it close. Take points and Ravens,

Oakland at Miami (-10.5)

Last week: Oakland lost to Carolina 17-6; Miami beat Seattle 21-19.

If the Raiders can't get Russell, McFadden or Burgess back on the field after injuries have kept them off, Oakland isn't going to fare well in this game. The Dolphins are too efficient when it comes to penalties and turnovers to allow the Raiders enough opportunities to scrape together points. Now, if McFadden's turf toe heals enough for him to get back to work on a solid rookie season, it could change the dynamic of this game. In that scenario, this game will be won and lost up front. And with linebacker Joey Porter leading the Dolphins' defense, the Dolphins will still be in a good situation to win this game, but by how much? Carefully take Dolphins.

Minnesota at Tampa Bay (-3.5)

Last week: Minnesota beat Green bay 28-27; Tampa Bay beat Kansas City 30-27 two weeks ago.

The Bucs haven't lost a game at home all season and it's unlikely they'll lose this one. Peterson might have a big day but a Tampa Bay defense fresh off a bye week should make enough plays to limit the Vikings' offensive explosiveness and keep the score close. If the defense does its part and the offense solves its red-zone problems the Bucs should eke out a victory that will keep them alive in the NFC playoff race. Take Buccaneers.

St-Louis at San Francisco (-5.5)

Last week: St-Louis lost to NY Jets 47-3; San Francisco lost to Arizona 29-24.

The Niners appear to be on the way up, while the Rams have sort of regressed losing the last three. Mike Singletary is making a difference. Sure, they lost to Arizona on Monday, but have played with more energy and desire than I've seen in recent history. The Niners will need a running game without Frank Gore. Marc Bulger was replaced by Trent Green. The 49ers are healthier than the Rams and are playing at home. Whether they can bounce back on a short week from an emotionally draining loss in Arizona will largely determine the outcome. Take 49ers.

Arizona at Seattle (2.5)

Last week: Arizona beat San Francisco 29-24; Seattle lost to Miami 21-19.

This is a 6-3 team against a 2-7 team, but the Cardinals are only favored by 2 ˝. Perhaps it is because Matt Hasselbeck will be back at QB for Seattle. Yes, it will make a difference because he can be an exceptional quarterback when healthy. The question is how long it will take him to get back up to game speed. He has missed a lot of work, over a month, and just with like Payton Manning earlier this year, an absence of reps can affect you even when you get back to game speed. Arizona can score points. They have averaged 29 per game over the first nine, with a high of 41 against the Bills. Arizona is coming off a tough Monday night game and had to travel to Seattle this week, but in terms of talent, the Cardinals are much better. Take Cardinals.

Cleveland at Buffalo (-4.5)

Last week: Cleveland lost to Denver 34-30; Buffalo lost to New England 20-10.

A Monday night home game might be just what the Bills need. Buffalo has been a much different -- make that better -- team at home than on the road. The Bills likely must go 5-2 the rest of the way to ensure a playoff spot, but that record is not guaranteed the way they have been playing. They have done their best work against mediocre teams, which is what the Browns are right now. Brady Quinn will be making his second career start, but his first on the road. He's surrounded by a lot of talent on offense, which should help. Moreover, the Browns have played better on the road (2-2) than at home (1-4). In a tight one. Take Browns.

Last week: NY Jets beat St-Louis 47-3; New England beat Buffalo 20-10.

On one side is the aging gunslinger. On the other is the career backup suddenly coming into his own. The expectation is that Brett Favre is more capable of winning this game and Matt Cassel more likely to lose it, but Favre is the lifetime interceptions leader for a reason, and Cassel keeps managing games efficiently.

In last week's 47-3 victory over St. Louis, Favre had an interception-free game for the first time since opening day. He must keep that up against an opportunistic New England defense that is excellent at disguising its looks and coverages. In New England's 19-10 victory in September, the Jets sacked Cassel three times, but weren't really able to disrupt his rhythm. Now that they have much game film on Cassel to study, they need to use that to their advantage and keep him off-balance as much as possible.

Favre basically comes in two flavors nowadays -- playmaker and turnover machine. If the Pats can suppress the first and encourage the second, they should be in business. The key is holding their coverage downfield even after the play appears over, because that's when Favre is at his freelancing best. It will also be up to the coaching staff to confuse the 39-year-old into throwing into coverage. Favre did that in the teams' first meeting, resulting in the turnover that swung the game in New England's favor.

The Jets rank second in the NFL with 31 sacks and tied for third with four defensive touchdowns, and they're first with 14 forced fumbles. They make life particularly harrowing for opposing quarterbacks by bringing pressure from almost every angle. Cassel has greatly improved his ball protection skills, but he fumbled on Sunday against the Bills and can ill afford to turn the ball over against the Jets.

There's a reason the Patriots have won 11 of their last 12 against the Jets. They've consistently been more talented and better coached. However both gaps have shrunk considerably, especially since Mangini took over. This caper will come down to a field goal. Take Jets.

Denver at Atlanta (-5.5)

Last week: Denver beat Cleveland 34-30; Atlanta beat New Orleans 34-20.

Chicago at Green Bay (-3.5)

Last week: Chicago lost to Tennessee 21-14; Green Bay lost to Minnesota 28-27.

San Diego at Pittsburgh (-4.5)

Last week: San Diego beat Kansas City 20-19; Pittsburgh lost to Indianapolis 24-20.

Tennessee at Jacksonville (2.5)

Last week: Tennessee beat Chicago 21-14; Jacksonville beat Detroit 38-14.

Dallas at Washington (1.5)

Last week: Dallas lost to NY Giants 35-14 two weeks ago; Washington lost to Pittsburgh 23-6 two weeks ago.

Detroit at Carolina (-13.5)

Last week: Detroit lost to Jacksonville 38-14; Carolina beat Oakland 17-6.

Houston at Indianapolis (-8.5)

Last week: Houston lost to Baltimore 41-13; Indianapolis beat Pittsburgh 24-20.

Philadelphia at Cincinnati (8.5)

Last week: Philadelphia lost to NY Giants 36-31; Cincinnati beat Jacksonville 21-19 two weeks ago.

New Orleans at Kansas City (4.5)

Last week: New Orleans lost to Atlanta 34-20; Kansas City lost to San Diego 20-19.

Baltimore at NY Giants (-6.5)

Last week: Baltimore beat Houston 41-13; NY Giants beat Philadelphia 36-31.

Oakland at Miami (-10.5)

Last week: Oakland lost to Carolina 17-6; Miami beat Seattle 21-19.

Minnesota at Tampa Bay (-3.5)

Last week: Minnesota beat Green bay 28-27; Tampa Bay beat Kansas City 30-27 two weeks ago.

St-Louis at San Francisco (-5.5)

Last week: St-Louis lost to NY Jets 47-3; San Francisco lost to Arizona 29-24.

Arizona at Seattle (2.5)

Last week: Arizona beat San Francisco 29-24; Seattle lost to Miami 21-19.

Cleveland at Buffalo (-4.5)

Last week: Cleveland lost to Denver 34-30; Buffalo lost to New England 20-10.

Last week: 6-8
Season: 60-70

Tennessee at Chicago (2.5)

Last week: Tennessee beat Green Bay 19-16; Chicago beat Detroit 27-23.

Tennessee discovered it did not need its best effort to defeat an NFC foe at home Sunday, but the league's only remaining unbeaten at 8-0 will not be able to continue its streak with substandard performances, not entering a stretch Sunday at Soldier Field where three of the next four games are away from LP Field. Tennessee has taken advantage of a soft schedule -- only one of the Titans' first eight opponents is above .500 and they have a composite record of 25-41 (.379). Chicago does not qualify as a powerhouse, not with the status of QB Kyle Orton (right ankle) uncertain, but with the Bears playing solid run defense it will be a test for the Titans, who are two games up in the AFC for the top playoff seed.

If former starter Rex Grossman is pressed into action to make his first start of the season, will he be able to recapture some of the magic he had two seasons ago? Grossman's strong first half in 2006 put the Bears on course for a trip to Super Bowl 41, but his star has faded ever since to the point that now he's likely looking forward to the season ending and finding a fresh start elsewhere. Grossman is a short (6-1) quarterback who lacks great pocket mobility and therefore can struggle. That will be a real issue against the big Titans front, but if Orton is going to be sidelined for any period of time, the Bears need Grossman to deliver a steady effort because the defense isn't the same as it was. The Bears cannot count on an even effort from that side of the ball week in and week out.

As a team, the Bears just don't seem impressive. Last week, they had to come from behind to beat a winless Lions team. You go back two games from that, and see that Minnesota put up 41 points on the Bears. Before that, Chicago lost to the Falcons. Even though the bears are 5-3, it is not a strong 5-3. The bottom line here is that it is more likely that the Titans will do a better job protecting the football than Chicago will. Kerry Collins only has three interceptions this season. Take Titans.

Buffalo at New England (-3.5)

Last week: Buffalo lost to NY Jets 26-17; New England lost to Indianapolis 18-15.

The Bills have not had a good time with the Patriots since crushing them in the 2003 season opener. The Pats have won nine straight against them since, culminating in last year's 56-10 demolition that saw Randy Moss catch four touchdowns passes in the first half. The Pats are wounded without Brady, but playing much better recently. This one still represents the Bills' best chance to overtake their tormentors and they need to stop the bleeding after consecutive losses to the Dolphins and Jets.

Patriots quarterback Matt Cassel s improving at an almost exponential rate, with his three best games of the year coming in the last three weeks. If he keeps it up against the Bills, it could be a long day for Buffalo, not to mention a shot across the bow of the rest of the division.

These are two teams headed in completely opposite directions. The Bills thought they were going to be fighting for a bye and Super Bowl berth after starting 4-0. The Patriots were just trying to keep their heads above water after losing Brady. Now the Bills have lost two straight division games, while the Pats have won two of three and played well enough to beat the Colts. The Bills are a bit of a mess, with injuries taking their toll on the defense and the offensive line. They can't run the ball, they can't finish sustained drives, and they're ripe for the picking for a team like the Patriots, which generally starts playing its best ball in November. Take Patriots.

Indianapolis at Pittsburgh (-2.5)

Last week: Indianapolis beat New England 18-15; Pittsburgh beat Washington 23-6.

These two have not met since the Steelers ambushed Manning and the Colts in the RCA Dome in the 2005 AFC playoffs, using that game as the springboard to their Super Bowl victory. Just like last time, Manning will face a defense that is ranked No. 1 overall, No. 1 against the pass in the NFL and has allowed just 116 points in eight games (14.5 avg).

The Colts are coming off an 18-15 victory against another nemesis, New England that ended a two-game losing streak. And the Steelers, coming off a dominating 23-6 victory in Washington, are unbeaten against the AFC this season (5-0). Indianapolis has lost the past 12 games in Pittsburgh and 10 of the past 11 meetings overall, including playoffs.

Both teams have struggled offensively, showing flashes of production but too often looking inconsistent and erratic. Big plays, for the most part, have been lacking. One thing that hasn't been lacking, though, is the dominance of the Steelers' defense, whether against the run or the pass. The longest play against them is 35 yards and they have consistently shut down all the top running backs in the league, including Clinton Portis. In addition, they lead the league with 35 sacks and have done a wonderful job disguising their pressure. The defense is the reason the Steelers are 6-2 and headed for 7-2. Take Steelers.

NY Giants at Philadelphia (-2.5)

Last week: NY Giants beat Dallas 35-14; Philadelphia beat Seattle 26-7.

This game is what a diehard NFC East fan salivates over. The defending Super Bowl champion Giants are 7-1 and inarguably the favorite to earn the No. 1 seed in the NFC playoffs. After a slow start, the 5-3 Eagles have won three straight to climb out of the division cellar. An Eagles win would pull them within one game of New York and threaten the Giants' division supremacy.

This should be a prototype, smashmouth, grind-it-out game featuring two teams that know each other well. The Giants' defense -- ranked third overall -- is coached by Steve Spagnuolo, once a pupil of Eagles defensive coordinator Jim Johnson. Both are infatuated by the blitz and both rotate linemen at different positions to create mismatches and pressure the quarterback.

It should be a true chess match between two head coaches with over 100 career wins each. The Giants are playing disciplined, hard-nosed football under Tom Coughlin, and they bring a power rushing attack that's been almost impossible to stop. Andy Reid's offense is starting to click. They've scored 93 points in the past three games, with QB Donovan McNabb heating up.

Both QBs, Eli Manning and Donovan McNabb, complete a high percentage of their passes and have excellent TD:INT ratios. Where this game may be decided is in the depth of the perimeter players. Where the Giants have three very good RBs in Jacobs, Ward and Bradshaw, the Eagles have a great one in Westbrook. If the Giants tackle well, it could negate the Eagles best player. Where the Giants have three proven players big play receivers in Burris, Toomer and Smith, Philadelphia has one - rookie DeSean Jackson. And where both teams love to bring pass rush pressure with all three levels of the defense coming at any moment, New York has the better set of one-on-one pass rushers if the choose to rush four and drop eight.

If the game matches the statistics, this should be a defensive battle between two fundamentally sound division rivals. The Eagles will be galvanized by a home-field crowd still revved up by the Phillies' World Series title, but the Giants have escaped Lincoln Financial Field with victories the past two seasons. This should be a field goal game, which is an advantage for Philly at home with a mobile QB in McNabb. But the Giants have won five of seven against Philly. Stick with history. Take NY Giants.

New Orleans at Atlanta (-1.5)

Last week: New Orleans beat San Diego 37-32 two weeks ago; Atlanta beat Oakland 24-0.

The Falcons advantage in this game is that they completely dominated Oakland, holding the Raiders to 10 passing yards. They are confident. For New Orleans, at 4-4, they have the advantage of coming off the bye following a win against San Diego in London. They also have Drew Brees, who might be the best quarterback in all of football. In completing 69.1 percent of his passes, he is having an MVP season - and he loves playing indoors. I like Atlanta's running game, though. Michael Turner is averaging 4.5 yards per carry, which means fewer third and long situations for rookie QB Matt Ryan. If Atlanta can win the time of possession battle, it will be a big advantage. Take Falcons.

Jacksonville at Detroit (6.5)

Last week: Jacksonville lost to Cincinnati 21-19; Detroit lost to Chicago 27-23.

The Lions have improved this season in stopping the run, but they still seem to give up too many big plays at the worst times. Offensively, Culpepper might give them a spark, but he'll be saddled with the same issues as the other quarterbacks -- no consistent running game to keep the pressure off. The Jaguars have struggled to make plays down the stretch, too, but they've got more playmakers than the Lions, and they'll pull this one out late, but barely. Take points and Lions.

Seattle at Miami (-8.5)

Last week: Seattle lost to Philadelphia 26-7; Miami beat Denver 26-17.

The Dolphins are blossoming with hope. They're talking about the playoffs and sack records, discipline and efficiency. Meanwhile, the Seahawks are in disarray. They're talking about injuries, bizarre blunders and next year's draft. Unless something strange happens, each team's momentum should provide a picture of what to expect. The only thing that can hurt the Dolphins is the Dolphins themselves. They struggle against lesser opponents. This will provide a perfect opportunity to change that. Carefully take Dolphins.

Green Bay at Minnesota (-2.5)

Last week: Green Bay lost to Tennessee 19-16; Minnesota beat Houston 28-21.

I think the Packers are the better team, but the Vikings may have improved enough in recent weeks to make this a game very interesting. Having won three of four, Minnesota is now tied with Green bay at 4-4, and both teams are one game behind the Bears in the division, and Chicago gets a tough Tennessee team this week. The difference in this game will be the packers run defense and QB Aaron Rodgers. He is coming off a tough game. He did throw for 314 yards against Tennessee last week, but he was only 22-of-41 and turned the football over twice. There is no guarantee that Minnesota will run the ball enough to keep Rodgers off the field. To me, this sets up that classic football struggle with Minnesota looking to win the time of possession battle, while Green Bay looks for big plays and quick scores. Take Packers.

St-Louis at NY Jets (-7.5)

Last week: St-Louis lost to Arizona 34-13; NY Jets beat Buffalo 26-17.

Until a lackluster effort against Arizona, the Rams had played inspired football under Haslett, with upsets of Washington and Dallas and a competitive loss at New England. They certainly are capable of making this a game, but the Jets have a lot more to play for now that they're tied for first in the AFC East. As long as Favre can avoid another interception for a score, the Jets should win easily. Carefully take NY Jets.

Baltimore at Houston (-1.5)

Last week: Baltimore beat Cleveland 37-27; Houston lost to Minnesota 28-21.

This is an interesting game because both teams are on the rise in different ways. For Houston, they have two good QBs in Sage Rosenfels and Matt Schaub, who is injured this week. But they have to start winning the close games. A four point loss to Indy, a three point loss in Jacksonville. The Texans could easily be 5-3 on the year. How about Joe Flacco for Baltimore? He's having a great rookie year, supported by a good team around him. The Ravens have a good opportunity to make Houston one-dimensional. If there are too many third and long situations for Rosenfels, he could implode. Also, Houston's three wins came over Cincinnati, Detroit and Miami. Two of those are the worst teams in the league. Take Ravens.

Carolina at Oakland (8.5)

Last week: Carolina beat Houston 27-23 two weeks ago; Oakland lost to Atlanta 24-0.

I like Carolina coming off a bye week. The Raiders, in fact, could face their second straight shut out of the year at home. That would be absolutely crushing for the organization. The Raiders offensive ineptitude was shocking last week against the Falcons. If Atlanta's defense is that good, Carolina's could be better. If John Abraham can dominate Oakland from the DE spot, then so can Julius Peppers. It's interesting to note that the Panthers will travel to Oakland on Friday instead of Saturday. When they tried that earlier this year, it translated into wins over Arizona and San Diego. Take Panthers.

Kansas City at San Diego (-14.5)

Last week: Kansas City lost to Tampa Bay 30-27; San Diego lost to New Orleans 37-32 two weeks ago.

The Chargers are 3-5 and, though the Chiefs are 1-7, it is still a divisional game. Also, the Chiefs have been competitive in their last two outings, with a 30-27 OT loss against Tampa Bay and a 28-24 loss to the Jets in New York. Also, Chiefs QB Tyler Thigpen has played well, completing 64 percent of his passes. San Diego should win. They are coming off a bye and they have superior talent. Will they make the playoffs? They have a great opportunity - they are only one game behind Denver for the division lead, that's it. One game. They do have four tough games left, at Pittsburgh, Indy, Atlanta and at TB, but they play Denver at home on December 28, the last regular season game of the year. It could be for first place. It starts with this game, which the Chargers should win, but it's just too many points. Take points and Chiefs.

San Francisco at Arizona (-9.5)

Last week: San Francisco lost to Seattle 34-13 two weeks ago; Arizona beat St-Louis 34-13.

The Cardinals are playing with a maturity and confidence, two attributes the franchise has long been missing. They are better than the 49ers and they are playing at home, where they are 9-2 under Whisenhunt. Over the past 16 games, the Cardinals are 10-6, so what they have done in the first half of this season is no fluke. The Cardinals beat SF in Week 1 by a 23-13 count. Arizona has improved greatly since then, while the Niners have not. San Francisco will play hard for Singletary, but the Cardinals are just more talented. Take Cardinals.

Bye: Cincinnati, Dallas, Tampa Bay and Washington.

The Bears are the biggest favorite this week, giving up 12 ˝ points at home to the Lions. Through the first eight weeks, the biggest favorites have posted a 2-7 record.

MY RECORD AGAINST THE SPREAD

Last week: 3-11.
Season: 54-62.

NY Jets at Buffalo (-5.5)

Last week: NY Jets beat Kansas City 28-24; Buffalo lost to Miami 25-16.

This is an important division game for both teams. Buffalo is tied with New England atop the AFC East at 5-2, and the teams will meet next week in Foxborough. The 4-3 Jets could leave Orchard Park with a share of the division lead if they win. The Bills came up short in their first AFC East test last week, losing at Miami, 25-16.

Buffalo has yet to knock off a team with a winning record, but the Jets aren't great. They struggled in wins over Cincinnati and Kansas City and lost in overtime at Oakland. No one has been more erratic than quarterback Brett Favre, who followed outstanding performances with mediocre ones. No matter how many mistakes he makes, Favre is feared when he has the ball in the final minutes.

The Jets' defense has been terrific most of the season. But their offense must show up on Sunday if they are going to beat the Bills. Favre lived up to his gunslinger reputation in the past three games, throwing three TD passes and seven interceptions. Still, he has guided the Jets to go-ahead or game-tying scores in the fourth quarter each of the past two weeks. If Favre can avoid mistakes, the Jets might not need late-game heroics from him.

The Bills have been a different team at home than on the road, winning three games at Ralph Wilson Stadium by an average score of 27-15. Playing in front of their fans, their offense operates with more crispness and their defense is far more aggressive. If Favre plays well and the defense makes some plays, the Jets can keep this game close. But with a trip to New England looming, the Bills can't afford to start 0-2 in the division. Take Bills.

Green Bay at Tennessee (-5.5)

Last week: Green Bay beat Indianapolis 34-14 two weeks ago; Tennessee beat Indianapolis 31-21.

After Monday's win over the Colts, the Titans are no longer an NFL secret. They are the league's last undefeated team, and their 7-0 record is becoming impossible to dismiss. The Titans have lived off the underdog status for years. Now, how can they handle being considered one of the NFL's elite teams? The Titans now have a four-game cushion in the AFC South over Indianapolis, Jacksonville and Houston and a two-game lead for home-field advantage in the AFC.

Are the Packers back? After three consecutive losses to start the season 2-3, they are on the upswing. They won convincingly against the Seahawks and Colts, and are getting healthy. Quarterback Aaron Rodgers gutted through three games with a sore shoulder but is healthy and ready to go. It should make Green Bay's offense the Titans' toughest tasks so far.

The game will feature the AFC's best team, and one of the NFC's best. And it's not often these teams meet. The last time the Titans and Packers played in the regular season was in 2004, a game won by the Titans. The last time the Packers visited Nashville was in 2001. The Titans won both those games and have fared well against NFC competition in recent years.

The Titans are on a roll, full of confidence and playing well on offense and defense. Even on a short week, they'll be prepared to play on Sunday at LP Field, where they're winning by an average of 12.2 points per game. Look for the Titans to line up and run right at the Packers. In doing so, they'll be able to control the clock and possession time. On defense, the Titans secondary is making plays and will force Rodgers into mistakes. It all adds up to the Titans' eighth consecutive victory, but Rodgers and the Packers will keep it close. Take points and Packers.

Dallas at NY Giants (-7.5)

Last week: Dallas beat Tampa Bay 13-9; NY Giants beat Pittsburgh 21-14.

At the start of the season the Cowboys were widely considered to be the heavy favorite to repeat as NFC East champions, even though the Giants beat them at Texas Stadium in the playoffs and went on to win the Super Bowl. The Giants often like to remind everyone that they have very few Pro Bowl players, compared with the array of Pro Bowl participants for the Cowboys. Every game within this division is a fierce and long-time rivalry, but there's something about the Cowboys that always causes the Giants emotions to rise, starting in the front office and filtering down to the coaching staff and players.

After losing their first two games of the 2007 season, the Giants have been successful in limiting damage and staying away from any prolonged skids. They haven't lost back-to-back games in more than a year. The Giants, with their 4-0 start, built a surprising lead in the NFC East amid the struggles of the Cowboys and Eagles. A victory here would boost the Giants to 7-1 and drop the Cowboys to 5-4, opening up a huge cushion for New York. The Giants played only one division game in their first six, but this game with the Cowboys begins a stretch in which they play five of their next seven against NFC East opponents.

Although the Giants did knock the favored Cowboys out of last year's playoffs, the Giants remember how they were swept in the two-game regular-season series, allowing 76 points in the two games. Of course, the absence of Tony Romo greatly affects the Cowboys' firepower, but there are still plenty of weapons the Giants must deal with.

The Giants enter this game brimming with confidence following their 21-14 comeback victory in Pittsburgh and realize the Cowboys are not at full strength. Pressuring Brad Johnson is far easier than getting to Tony Romo and the Giants -- with 26 sacks -- lead the NFL in getting to the quarterback. Given the defensive ability of the Giants to shut down opposing running games, Johnson is going to be asked to do more than not hurt the Cowboys, and it remains to be seen if he can make enough plays. The Giants have not turned the ball over or allowed a sack of Eli Manning in their past two games, a winning formula if ever there was one. Take NY Giants.

New England at Indianapolis (-5.5)

Last week: New England beat St-Louis 23-16; Indianapolis lost to Tennessee 31-21.

The Colts are in danger of missing the playoffs for the first time since 2001, and whom better to extend their miseries than coach Bill Belichick and the New England Patriots.

The prime-time Sunday showdown lacks the hype of last season when each team was unbeaten, but it has "must-win" written all over it for Indianapolis. At 3-4, they're already off to their worst start since 1998. Falling into a 3-5 hole with what would be a third home loss in four games, would make reaching the postseason for a seventh consecutive season extremely difficult.

 The QB Peyton Manning-led offense continues to move in fits and starts, but could regain the bounce in its step against New England's injury-depleted defense. The Colts may be 3-4, but they're still capable of the home run on every play. They've also gone up against their share of great defenses and are battle-tested. If the Pats think they're going to see the struggling Indy passing game, there's a good chance they'll get burned.

Desperation time has arrived in Indy and coincides with the latest visit from the hated Patriots. Normally, the Colts would be considered heavy favorites since New England is without QB Tom Brady, RB Laurence Maroney and S Rodney Harrison. But these are not normal times. The Colts approach the season's midpoint with many more questions than answers. Still, they at least temporarily stop the bleeding. Take Colts.

Pittsburgh at Washington (-1.5)

Last week: Pittsburgh lost to NY Giants 21-14; Washington beat Detroit 25-17.

No running back is hotter than Washington's Clinton Portis. He reached the season's midpoint on pace for more than 1,800 yards. He's running as hard as ever and is exploding into the secondary. He has to be mentioned among discussions for offensive player of the year.

But Pittsburgh's defense has to be mentioned among the league's elite. Few defenses have been tougher to run against than the Steelers.

Portis has rushed for more than 120 yards in five-straight games; the Steelers have allowed just three runners in the past 73 games to crack 100 yards. Portis averages 5.0 yards per carry; opposing backs are rushing for 2.9 yards a carry vs. Pittsburgh.

However, the Steelers, playing their first game in Washington since 1988, haven't had success against the NFC East so far. They've already lost to Philadelphia and the Giants. In those games, they've turned the ball over a combined seven times and have yielded 14 sacks.

The Redskins are tired, banged up and about to enter their bye week. They must be careful about not looking ahead to the time off. Regardless, it's a rough time to play a physical team such as the Steelers. Pittsburgh will be able to stop the run and force Campbell into a position of having to win the game for Washington. The line has protected him well, but it will be more difficult if Redskins become one-dimensional, especially against this defense. Washington's defense will be helped by the return of defensive tackle Cornelius Griffin and should be able to pressure Pittsburgh inside. But it won't be enough. Take Steelers.

Jacksonville at Cincinnati (7.5)

Last week: Jacksonville lost Cleveland 23-17; Cincinnati lost to Houston 35-6.

The Jacksonville Jaguars are a hungry, angry team after last week's heartbreaking 23-17 home loss to Cleveland. The Bengals, meanwhile, are a beaten, downtrodden squad searching for answers, and a spark, on offense, defense and special teams. Cincinnati hasn't won a home game since Dec. 23, 2007, and there's absolutely no reason to believe it can triumph over the Jaguars, who are superior on both sides of the ball. The Bengals have shown no signs of being able to consistently run the ball, and that plays into the hands of the Jaguars' pass rush. Jacksonville still has designs on a wildcard berth, and will get back to .500 with a resounding victory. Take Jaguars.

Baltimore at Cleveland (-1.5)

Last week: Baltimore beat Oakland 29-10; Cleveland beat Jacksonville 23-17.

This one is tough to pick. First, Cleveland going into Jacksonville and winning a close game last week makes you optimistic that maybe, just maybe, the talent will live up to expectations. They have won three of four and are now only one game behind the second-place Ravens. But this week, they play a top three defense. One factor to consider is that Cleveland dominated time of possession in beating Baltimore 28-10 back in Week 3. This time around, there is no way it will be as one-sided as that game was, and someone will win this by a field goal. It's a tough call, but I'll go with the Browns. Take Browns.

Detroit at Chicago (-12.5)

Last week: Detroit lost to Washington 25-17; Chicago beat Minnesota 48-41 two weeks ago.

The pressure is building in Detroit to win at least one game and avoid the inevitable conversations about 0-16. The last time these two teams played, it was a really easy win for the Bears, 34-7. It was over by the beginning of the fourth quarter. When you look at the 4-3 Bears, they are very much alive in the division, and you have to admire quarterback Kyle Orton. Remember when it was a battle between him and Rex Grossman for the starting job? Not any more. It's Orton's offence to run and he has put quite a bit of distance between himself and the back-up. His statistics are not among the best in the NFL, but Orton just gives off a vibe of confidence when he is in there. Detroit is looking at Daunte Culpepper to play quarterback; not a bad move, but it's Week 9. Too late. Take Bears.

Tampa Bay at Kansas City (7.5)

Last week: Tampa Bay lost to Dallas 13-9; Kansas City lost to NY Jets 28-24.

I really like the Bucs to win this one, but I hate giving up 7.5 points. That's a lot. Everyone scores on Kansas City, though. The 28 scored by the Jets last week has been the smallest total in the last four weeks. And very few teams score on the Bucs. Only once this season has TB given up more than 20 points – Green Bay scored 21 in Week 4. Also, even though the Bucs lost to Dallas 13-9 last week, they allowed a staggeringly low amount of yards (172). And that was against a Dallas team with a powerful offensive line, Terrell Owens and Roy Williams at receiver and extra-effort RB Marion Barber. Football logic says that K.C. should only score about 10 points. KC's quarterback Tyler Thigpen is coming off his best game as a pro, but the Bucs are angry after a key road loss. Take Buccaneers.

Houston at Minnesota (-4.5)

Last week: Houston beat Cincinnati 35-6; Minnesota lost to Chicago 48-41 two weeks ago.

The Texans have quietly won three in a row. Now you have to take into consideration that two of the wins were against the winless Lions and the winless Bengals. Also, their last four games have been at home, so this will be the Texans' first road game since September. Houston is a team on the rise, no doubt, but this is a bit of a trap game with Minnesota coming off the bye week. And you would have to think that during the bye week, the Vikings addressed an area of concern – special teams. The Vikings have allowed three punt returns for touchdowns, and five returns in total. The Texans are the better team, but the Vikings have home field advantage. I'll take the Vikings to win but the Texans will make it a close one. Take points and Texans.

Arizona at St-Louis (2.5)

Last week: Arizona lost Carolina 27-23; St-Louis lost to New England 23-16.

Sometimes when you lose, you win, and I thought both Arizona and St. Louis played winning football last week but ran out of time. The Cardinals only lost by four to a good Carolina team on the road. Arizona seems to be closing the gap between losing by dominating scores on the road and losing by competitive scores. St. Louis has two impressive wins over Washington and Dallas, and lost by seven to the Patriots last week – but it was a game they could have won. Most of the time, an in-season coaching change does not produce big positive results, but it seems like Jim Haslett has made a difference in St. Louis. Both teams are on the rise, but… Take Rams.

Miami at Denver (-3.5)

Last week: Miami beat Buffalo 25-16; Denver lost to New England 41-7 two weeks ago.

As the weeks move on, I am becoming more and more of a Dolphin believer. Every game since Week 4 has been very competitive. Even two weeks ago in the 27-13 loss to Baltimore, the Terrell Suggs interception changed everything. That game could have been a Miami win if not for that one play. It probably will not happen, but Chad Pennington should get some consideration for comeback player of the year. He is completing almost 70 percent of his passes and has changed the perceptions that he was a quarterback on the downside of his career. Now it looks like Pennington could play for a long time. That said, the Dolphins' running back tandem –Ricky Williams and Ronnie Brown- and Pennington should be licking their chops facing a defense that's now missing both Champ Bailey and Boss Bailey. Even though the Broncos are decent at home, I give a slight edge to the Dolphins. Take Dolphins.

Atlanta at Oakland (2.5)

Last week: Atlanta lost to Philadelphia 24-17; Oakland lost to Baltimore 29-10.

The Falcons have been more consistent than the Raiders so far this season. However, they are 1-3 on the road, and the Raiders play better at home. Whichever quarterback handles the pressure better figures to lead his team to victory. Falcon's QB Matt Ryan learned a valuable lesson against Philadelphia, as the Eagles blitzed time after time until they finally forced a turnover. Ryan will learn from that experience, and I'm not sure the Raiders have the personnel to duplicate what the Eagles did. Take Falcons.

Philadelphia at Seattle (6.5)

Last week: Philadelphia beat Atlanta 24-17; Seattle beat San Francisco 34-13.

The Seahawks' home-field advantage ain't wait it used to be. Sure, the 12th Man crowd still generates a din that prompts opposing offenses to commit false-start penalties. But the team isn't holding up its end, losing two of its first three home games and surrendering 33 and 27 points in doing it. Even with the Eagles making their second Coast-to-Coast trip in three weeks, the Seahawks offense will have a difficult time dealing with the Eagles' blitzes, and the banged-up defense will have trouble containing everything the Eagles can throw -- and run -- at it. Take Eaggles.

Bye: Carolina, New Orleans, San Diego and San Francisco.

There are two double-digit favorites this week, with the Jets favored by 12 ˝ at home against the Chiefs and the Texans a 9 ˝ point choice over the visiting Bengals.

MY RECORD AGAINST THE SPREAD

Last week: 6-8

Season: 51-51

 Arizona at Carolina (-4.5)

Last week: Arizona beat Dallas 30-24 two weeks ago; Carolina beat New Orleans 30-7.

It won't get as much attention because it features teams from non-glamour divisions, but this game pits two of the NFC's top teams. The Panthers are looking to run their home record (where they've never been particularly good) to 5-0, while the Cardinals are coming off a bye week hoping to maintain their momentum after a win against (sounds odd, but true) suddenly slumping Dallas. This game is a battle of teams' strengths against each other. The Cardinals are first in the league in scoring and third in passing yards per game, while the Panthers are third in scoring defense and second in passing yards per game allowed. On the other side, the Cardinals' defense has gotten consistent pass rush, with 18 sacks, while the Panthers have allowed one sack in their past four games of playing with patchwork lines. The Panthers aren't built to play a flashy game, but Jake Delhomme's not afraid of a shootout, either. Steve Smith is on a bit of a roll, and he's getting downfield well. With early good work by Mushin Muhammad, the Panthers' passing game has looked good in fits and starts. Even though they were effective against New Orleans, they haven't been consistently good with the ball in their hands. The Cardinals have been better in that respect, but it's always interesting to see how they do with the early wake-up call. They're 3-8 on the road under coach Ken Whisenhunt, and playing when they're used to having breakfast is always an issue. It's hard to tell if Carolina will play with the same intensity it brought to a division game last week, but its defense proved against the Saints it can shut down anyone. Carefully take Panthers.

Tampa Bay at Dallas (-3.5)

Last week: Tampa Bay beat Seattle 20-10; Dallas lost to St-Louis 34-14.

The Cowboys are a shell of the swaggering bunch that left training camp in Oxnard, Calif., a couple of months ago. This team has been beset by injuries – Tony Romo, Felix Jones, Kyle Kosier and Terence Newman all missed the last game- but this team still should be talented enough to win. Perhaps, every so-called NFL expert overrated this team. The Cowboys look lost on offense, defense and special teams. Right now, they have no identity. That's bad because they're entering the meaty part of their schedule with their next three games against Tampa Bay, the New York Giants and after a bye, Washington. For the first time since Jerry Jones hired Wade Phillips, he has had to answer questions about whether he still has confidence in Phillips and whether the loss to the Rams could be the harbinger for a coaching change. The Cowboys, who have already lost three conference games, have lost consecutive games for the first time since 2006. They really can't afford another loss to an NFC team, especially at home, considering they still have road games at the Giants, Redskins, Eagles and Steelers. In the NFL, watch out for the desperate team. The "desperate team" characterization seems to fit the Cowboys this week because their season may be slipping away, their coach is under significant scrutiny, their owner is mad and they've been embarrassed each of the past two weeks. If this doesn't bring out their best effort of the season, despite their litany of injuries, then they have nothing left to give. This game is not about X's and O's for Dallas -- it's about passion and urgency. Will they show it? I don't think so. Take Buccaneers.

Atlanta at Philadelphia (-8.5)

Last week: Atlanta beat Chicago 22-20 two weeks ago; Philadelphia beat San Francisco 40-26 two weeks ago.

The Eagles and Falcons might each be the biggest surprise in the NFC, for opposite reasons. The Eagles are, surprisingly, just 3-3, having been decimated by injuries to major offensive players, especially All-Pro running back Brian Westbrook. They've led in all but one game but invented new ways to lose. Still, they gained some momentum headed into the bye after stomping out the 49ers, 40-16. Two months ago, nobody could have predicted a 4-2 start for Atlanta and rookie quarterback Matt Ryan. The Falcons only won four games last season. But with a win against Philly they force a three-way tie for first place in the NFC South. Ryan should know all about the sack-happy Eagles defense, which has caused headaches for quarterbacks all season. The rookie was raised in Exton, Pa, a Philadelphia suburb - and quarterbacked the city's Penn Charter school before going to Boston College. In his homecoming, Ryan will have to deal with an intense Eagles pass rush that ranks second in the NFL with 17 sacks and hasn't allowed a wide receiver to go over the 100-yard receiving mark. Eagles coach Andy Reid is usually unflappable after the bye week. Since his first season in 1999, the Eagles are undefeated the week after the bye at 9-0. But the Falcons are finishing under first-year coach Mike Smith. They're coming off impressive wins against Green Bay and Chicago, coming alive in the fourth quarter to beat both. These Eagles are tough to figure out. One game, they're lighting up the scoreboard. The next game they're struggling to move the ball consistently and convert third downs. But they'll be close to full strength for the first time this season, and that should give them enough firepower to overcome upstart Atlanta. However, the spread is too high, the Falcons keeps it close. Take points and Falcons.

San Diego at New Orleans (2.5)

Last week: San Diego lost to Buffalo 23-14; New Orleans lost to Carolina 30-7.

This game, being played at London's Wembley Stadium, almost has the feel of a playoff elimination game, with the Saints and Chargers both underachieving at 3-4 and coming off of disappointing losses. In fact, these two teams are almost carbon copies of each other in every area. This is the first matchup between Drew Brees and the Chargers since they let him go in free agency in 2006. Some of the sting has worn off since then, since the move obviously worked out great for everybody involved. Brees believes New Orleans is where he was meant to be, and Rivers' success has confirmed the Chargers' faith in him. But Brees took the decision very personally in '06, and those feelings have not gone away. He would give his right arm to beat the Chargers this week — if it wasn't so valuable, that is. Theoretically, this isn't an absolute must-win game for either team since it's a non-conference showdown, and both teams could still make a run at their division title with a strong second half. But realistically, a loss on Sunday would be devastating. That is an extremely long flight home from London, followed by what could be a painfully-long bye week for both teams in Week 9. A loss would be particularly stinging for the Saints, who are using up one of their four remaining home games to serve as the host team in this game. The Saints spread their offense around more than most teams, but Reggie Bush is always at the center and he is out for a month with a knee injury. He was their primary rusher, their top pass catcher and the No. 1 focus of defenses. Without him, the Saints become more traditional and can't rely on misdirection and confusion as easily. Take Chargers.

NY Giants at Pittsburgh (-2.5)

Last week: NY Giants beat San Francisco 29-17; Pittsburgh beat Cincinnati 38-10.

This is one of the best early matchups of the season because it involves teams that have the NFL's second-best records, Super Bowl-winning quarterbacks from the same draft class, and similar philosophies. They are also teams that like to rely on physical running games to set up plays in the passing game. What's more, each team loves to pressure the quarterback, though they do it in different manners. The Giants create pressure with their defensive linemen, allowing them to drop extra players into coverage. The Steelers create pressure with their linebackers, particularly, James Harrison and LaMarr Woodley on the outside. They will try to disrupt quarterback Eli Manning and hurry him into bad throws. The Giants will try to pressure Ben Roethlisberger and keep him from getting outside the pocket and making plays. Another interesting twist: The Giants' best receiver, Plaxico Burress was a former No. 1 pick by the Steelers and played four seasons with them before leaving as a free agent. This is the first time he will face his former team. The Steelers' secondary, which hasn't allowed a pass play longer than 35 yards this season, will take extra caution to make sure Burress does not get behind them for big plays. The Giants had won 11 in a row on the road until their Monday night loss in Cleveland on Oct. 13; they appear to play more relaxed away from Giants Stadium. The 5-1 Steelers are beginning a seven-game stretch in which they play six playoff teams from 2007, including the Chargers, Colts and Cowboys. The good news is that five of those games are at home, including four of the next five. This is a battle of tough guys which says field goal game by either. Take Steelers at home.

Oakland at Baltimore (-6.5)

Last week: Oakland beat NY Jets 16-13; Baltimore beat Miami 27-13.

The Ravens beat Miami last week, and now have a good chance to win two more against the Raiders and, next week, the Browns. It's hard for visiting teams to win at M&T Bank Stadium. The Raiders are built like the Ravens, and they are very physical. The Ravens match up well with these kinds of teams and they'll beat Oakland because they will shut down the Raider's running game, and then put pressure on Jamarcus Russell. Russel hasn't developed to a point yet where he can carry a team. Although the spread high, I expect the Ravens to cover nevertheless. Take Ravens.

Washington at Detroit (7.5)

Last week: Washington beat Cleveland 14-11; Detroit lost to Houston 28-21.

Washington is still feeling the sting of losing (at home) to the then-winless St. Louis Rams and won't be taking the Lions lightly, regardless of what they see on film. The Lions have yet to score a single point in the first quarter (they've been outscored 54-0) so the Redskins are going to be playing with the lead -- and probably a pretty big one. The Lions' recent history is that they'll begin to make a second-half move when their opponent starts to ease off the gas pedal a little bit. Detroit will be a few plays to try to climb back into the game but, as usual, never pose a serious threat. Take Redskins.

Buffalo at Miami (1.5)

Last week: Buffalo beat San Diego 23-14; Miami lost to Baltimore 27-13.

The Dolphins face scary times. With victories against the Patriots and Chargers, they heightened expectations for an organization in transition. With consecutive losses to the Texans and Ravens, they are back to seeking an identity. They face the division-leading Bills in a game that could send their season spiralling -- or rejuvenate them. The Bills enter this game with momentum and the edge. Take Bills.

St-Louis at New England (-6.5)

Last week: Buffalo beat San Diego 23-14; New England beat Denver 41-7.

The Pats are dealing with injuries and a short week. The Rams have beaten far better competition the past two weeks. In this crazy up-and-down season for New England, this week is feeling like a loss. Maybe they suffer the same fate against the Colts next week. That will set up a matchup with Buffalo that sees everyone writing off the Patriots, only for them to beat the Bills. At which the Pats will be declared "back," before losing to Pittsburgh. And so it will go for the rest of this Brady-less season. Take points and Rams.

Kansas City at NY Jets (-12.5)

Last week: Kansas City lost to Tennessee 34-10; NY Jets lost to Oakland 16-13.

Kansas City has a decent defense, but it is overworked. The situation gets worse because the Chiefs must start Thigpen. A win is a win is a win, and that's obviously the goal, but a convincing win would prevent the Jets' shaky confidence from fading further and give them a springboard going into the Buffalo contest. Look for the Jets to be conservative, but solid. I hate to give up that many points but still… Carefully take Jets.

Cleveland at Jacksonville (-6.5)

Last week: Cleveland lost to Washington 14-11; Jacksonville beat Denver 24-17 two weeks ago.

The Jaguars are the only team in the league to have had all of their games decided by seven points or fewer. Despite Cleveland's record, this contest appears to have the makings of a nail-biter, too. Jacksonville has lost two of its last three games coming off a bye week, but the club's injury situation seems to be improving every day. Although injuries led to a slow start for the Jaguars, they never lost confidence. That confidence continues to grow as the club's injured player's return. Of Jacksonville's next three opponents, the Browns are the only team with a victory. So the Jags look at this game as a perfect opportunity to get on a roll and back in the hunt for the AFC South crown. Take Jaguars.

Cincinnati at Houston (-9.5)

Last week: Houston beat Detroit 28-21; Cincinnati lost to Pittsburgh 38-10.

The game won't likely be a pretty one. Both teams are inconsistent. The Bengals were in the game with the Steelers until the end when they fell apart. The Texans are coming off a victory where they played very well for the first quarter and a half. Then the team fell apart on offense and defense held on for the victory. Both teams hope a victory this week could help propel them to respectability this season. Neither team can afford another loss at this point. With the Texans coming off two wins and getting one more home game this month, they have a slight edge but the Bengals will make it interesting. Take points and Bengals.

Seattle at San Francisco (-4.5)

Last week: Seattle lost to Tampa Bay 20-10; San Francisco lost to NY Giants 29-17.

When the teams met in September, the Seahawks defense was determined to stop Frank Gore who rushed for just 61 yards. But they underestimated O'Sullivan, who threw for 321 yards and made several big plays on third downs. The 49ers will try to keep Seattle off balance by mixing between-the-tackle runs with downfield passes. The Seahawks, meanwhile, will borrow the formula that has worked against O'Sullivan and the 49ers the last four games: Rush four players and hope that O'Sullivan makes a critical blunder against a stacked secondary. In the end, the emotion of the coaching change ought to be enough to topple a reeling Seattle squad. Take 49ers.

Indianapolis at Tennessee (-3.5)

Last week: Indianapolis lost to Green Bay 34-14; Tennessee beat Kansas City 34-10.

The Titans are on a roll, clicking on both sides of the ball through the first six games of the season. The Colts, meanwhile, have sputtered. Even with some of their lesser teams, the Titans have played the Colts well, using a physical brand of football that has given them the edge. On defense, the Titans will slow the Colts down. On offense, the Titans running game will control the football and score enough points to keep them undefeated for another week. Take Titans.

Bye: Chicago, Denver, Green Bay and Minnesota.

The Redskins, favored by 13 ˝ last week over the visiting Rams, lost 19-17, while the Vikings, favored by 13 over the visiting Lions, won 12-10, failing to cover.

Picking winners is a 60-Minute test. Last week, the winning points in four games were scored in the final 10 seconds of regulation time, while another game went into overtime.

MY RECORD AGAINST THE SPREAD

Last week: 9-5
Season: 45-43

San Diego at Buffalo (1.0)

Last week: San Diego beat New England 30-10; Buffalo lost Arizona 41-17 two weeks ago.

Fresh off their bye week, the Bills face their biggest test of the season when the Chargers invade Ralph Wilson Stadium. Yes, the Bills have a better record than the Chargers. But San Diego is arguably the AFC's most talented team even without injured All-Pro linebacker Shawne Merriman, and was the stylish pick to represent the conference in Super Bowl XXXXIII. The Bills are looking to bounce back from an embarrassing 41-17 loss to Arizona. More important, beating the Chargers would send a message to the rest of the NFL that the Bills are for real. The week off proved beneficial to the Bills from a health standpoint. Quarterback Trent Edwards should return after being knocked out of the Arizona game with a concussion. Despite their record, the Bills have one quality win (at Jacksonville) and had to overcome fourth-quarter deficits to beat a one-win Oakland team and St. Louis, which was winless at the time. Slow starts have been a major problem for the Bills in their past four games, a trend that must end if they want to stay atop the AFC East. The Chargers are maddeningly inconsistent. Their offense, which sputters at times, looked unstoppable against New England. Their defense, which couldn't stop anyone, looked impenetrable against the Patriots. The Chargers may finally be coming together, so the Bills are catching them at the wrong time.Take Chargers.

New Orleans at Carolina (-2.5)

Last week: New Orleans beat Oakland 34-3; Carolina lost to Tampa Bay 27-3.

Even though the Panthers are tied for first in the NFC South and the Saints are bouncing back nicely, this one still has a desperation feel about it. If the Panthers lose, much of the good will they built up will be gone with two division losses in a row. For the Saints, it would underscore their inconsistency if they can't win. New Orleans has been exceptional throwing the ball, even without all quarterback Drew Brees' top targets. The Panthers had been quite good at stopping both the run and pass before being picked apart by Warrick Dunn and Jeff Garcia last week. Carolina can't be as bad as it looked in Tampa, but this is a tough opponent to bounce back against. The Panthers must be disciplined in the run game, which they had been, but New Orleans creates a different set of problems. With Brees playing as efficiently as he has, this one could well become a shootout. The Panthers have played better defense, but it's hard to imagine them keeping all the Saints' playmakers in check. That puts the pressure on QB Jake Delhomme, who seldom authors two stinkers in a row. There should be opportunities for Steve Smith to make plays against an injury-depleted secondary (the Saints are missing rookie CB Tracy Porter tremendously). The Panthers still want to run, but if they can't get Smith open for some big plays, it might be a long day. Take Saints.

Dallas at St-Louis (6.5)

Last week: Dallas lost to Arizona 36-30; St-Louis beat Washington 19-17.

After a 3-0 start, the Cowboys have lost two of three, looking nothing like the juggernaut that everyone expected in 2008. Now, they're down several key players because of injury and suspension, and following the Rams, they face the Bucs, Giants and Redskins. They cannot afford to stumble in the Edward Jones Dome. The Rams looked like a different team against Washington, with new head coach Jim Haslett taking over for the fired Scott Linehan. They still made a lot of mistakes had trouble moving the ball, but they didn't fold when something bad happened. Was it a fluke or a sign of things to come? There's no doubt that the Cowboys are vulnerable on several fronts due to injury. The Rams, meanwhile, could have a new lease on life under the leadership of Haslett. But the Cowboys still have a huge offensive line and an active defensive front. Jason Witten and Owens remain imposing weapons for a St. Louis secondary that is still shorthanded even with the re-signing of Fakhir Brown. So expecting back-to-back victories by the offensively-impaired Rams over the mighty NFC East is probably asking too much. Take Cowboys.

Indianapolis at Green Bay (1.0)

Last week: Indianapolis beat Baltimore 31-3; Green Bay beat Seattle 27-17.

The Colts are back and they could light up Lambeau Field in a way it hasn't been lit in many years. The Packers haven't been playing great defense, but their secondary is playing well and they'll try to harass the Colts receivers the way New England did during its defensive heyday. It will be a tall order for the Packers to compete with such a high-powered offense, especially with a defensive line battered by injury. The Manning express has a good chance to keep rolling. With its top two running backs out, the Colts could put it up a lot on Sunday. The Packers are trying to get to the bye week without any more injuries. If they can, they have a shot to have most of their starting lineup intact and several key reserves active again. The question is, can they raise their level of play for one game and give the Colts some trouble. The Packers broke a three-game losing streak with a victory over Seattle last Sunday, and they could use a victory going into their bye. After the buy, they face Tennessee and then four straight NFC contenders. The Colts probably have too much offense for the Packers to handle. If the Colts pass rush plays as fast as it did against Baltimore, Rodgers will have a hard time finding his receivers. The only way the Packers win is if they find their running game and control the ball all game long. Take Colts.

Cleveland at Washington (-6.5)

Last week: Cleveland beat NY Giants 35-14; Washington lost to St-Louis 19-17.

Going into their Week 6 matchup against the Rams, the Redskins were seen as a team to beat in the NFC. The problem was, the Redskins also saw themselves as a team to beat. Teams disavow letdowns and the idea that they overlooked an opponent, but that was the case in the loss to the lowly Rams. Now, the Redskins must reestablish themselves as a power team in a power division. They must ignore the Browns' record and play as if they are meeting a potential Super Bowl team. If they do, they Redskins will be OK. If they don't, they will be in serious trouble and in danger of falling into another up-and-down season. Jason Campbell has attempted 201 consecutive passes without an interception. This is a remarkable streak for a quarterback who gave the ball up with some regularity in his first two seasons as the starter. Campbell is making good decisions, and coach Jim Zorn is giving him some high percentage passes to throw. The Redskins are a good team when they feel as if the world doubts them. They let that feeling get away from them against the Rams, and they have a triple-whammy to show for it: a loss, a loss at home and a loss to an NFC opponent. The team needs to get back on track offensively. It was undone by giveaways and several fluke plays last week. Those things are not likely to happen this week. The Browns are playing on the road after a short week. The Redskins have had their reality check, and should be back down to earth now. An opportunistic defense and strong running game should make the game devoid of any late-game mystery. However, the Redskins should emerge as the victor but the Browns will keep it close.Take points and Browns.

Minnesota at Chicago (-2.5)

Last week: Minnesota beat Detroit 12-10; Chicago lost to Atlanta 22-20.

Every time there seems to be a reason to get excited about the Bears, they jerk momentum away. Every time there seems to be a reason to write off their season, they find a way to rekindle enthusiasm. Meanwhile, the Vikings have won consecutive games and are considered a dud after preseason expectations had them running away with the division. Don't look now, but the Bears' most consistent player might be Orton — and he'll find a way, somehow, to pump life back into the Bears' season. Take Bears.

Pittsburgh at Cincinnati (9.5)

Last week: Pittsburgh beat Jacksonville 26-21; Cincinnati lost to NY Jets 26-14.

The Steelers are among the NFL's most aggressive, physical and disciplined teams. They run the ball well, contain the run and play outstanding defense. In addition, Roethlisberger -- who embodies the Steelers image with his toughness -- does a great job of spreading the ball around to his weapons. The Bengals, meanwhile, are the exact opposite. They're sloppy, mistake-prone and don't know how to win. Take Steelers.

Tennessee at Kansas City (7.5)

Last week: Tennessee beat Baltimore 13-10 two weeks ago; Kansas City lost to Carolina 34-0 two weeks ago.

It's hard to picture the Chiefs putting up a bunch of points against the Titans when none of Tennessee's other opponents could do so. While the return of Brodie Croyle at quarterback could help, the Chiefs don't have enough firepower to score a healthy number of points. So Kansas City's chance depends on its defense to create some turnovers and favorable field position and then make Tennessee try to come from behind. Minus that, the Titans will exert their will on the Chiefs early. Take Titans.

Baltimore at Miami (-2.5)

Last week: Baltimore lost to Indianapolis 31-3; Miami lost to Houston 29-28.

Unlike the teams that have defeated Miami this season, Baltimore doesn't have the same type of big receivers that have so far exposed the Dolphins' secondary. Then again, Miami isn't stacked with any playmakers in the passing game, either. This is going to come down to running back Ronnie Brown's ability to attack a stout defensive front -- and the Dolphins' ability to add yet another element of trickery into the offensive game plan. The Wildcat remains Miami's prized weapon. If it is effective yet again, the Dolphins will have the upper hand. Take Dolphins.

San Francisco at NY Giants (-10.5)

Last week: San Francisco lost to Philadelphia 40-26; NY Giants lost to Cleveland 35-14.

This is the worst case scenario for the 49ers. A Super Bowl Champion team coming off a 21 point loss on the road, now back at home. The 49ers also have to make the tough West to East travel for this game, and haven't been good on defence this season, allowing 40 points to the Eagles, 31 to the Saints, 30 to the Patriots and 33 to the Seahawks in Week 2. I expect the Giants to do the same kind of damage this week. Take Giants.

Detroit at Houston (-8.5)

Last week: Detroit lost to Minnesota 12-10; Houston beat Miami 29-28.

Both teams are desperate for a victory. And both have lost more than one close game this season. Something has to give this week -- one of the teams has to come out on top. Neither team will be able to afford missed assignments or turnovers. The Texans should have the edge, however, since they are playing at home and coming off a big victory. The Lions are on the road again after a game they believe was lost by the officials. If the Texans can jump out to an early lead and carry the confidence from their last game into this one, they could pull out a victory but the spread is too high. Take points and Lions.

NY Jets at Oakland (2.5)

Last week: NY Jets beat Cincinnati 26-14; Oakland lost to New Orleans 34-3.

The Raiders allow too many points and the Jets every now and then can put up major points. Last week, Drew Brees pretty much had his way with the Raiders' defence, although I do not anticipate the same level of efficiency from Favre, he could have a big game as the Raiders like to employ a lot of man to man coverage. The Jets have quietly put two wins together over the last three weeks. Whenever you make a head coaching change in the middle of the season, 90% of the time the effects are minimal. Take Jets.

Seattle at Tampa Bay (-10.5)

Last week: Seattle lost to Green Bay 27-17; Tampa Bay beat Carolina 27-3.

The Bucs have a chance here to take advantage of a team that is down on its luck and really struggling to find itself, particularly on offense. They aren't likely to blow it. The Bucs are superior to Seattle right now in every phase of the game. Seattle will need something really strange to happen to upset the Bucs in their own house. Barring that, look for the Bucs to dominate early and to slowly put the Seahawks out of their misery. Carefully take Buccaneers.

Denver at New England (-2.5)

Last week: Denver lost to Jacksonville 24-17; New England lost to San Diego 30-10.

The league's good teams are going to continue to wreak vengeance against a Patriots squad that was considered arrogant in recent years. The Chargers did it last week, and now it's Denver's turn. The Pats' only hope is Belichick's track record of not following bad outings with more bad outings. That was when he had Brady, though. The Broncos simply have too much firepower with Cutler and top receivers Brandon Marshall and Eddie Royal. Once Matt Cassel has to play from behind, the Patriots will have virtually no shot of winning. If Pats fans thought last week was bad, this week could be even worse. Take Broncos.

Bye: Arizona, Atlanta, Jacksonville and Philadelphia.

There are two double-digit favorites this week: the Vikings are favored by 13 ˝ over the visiting Lions, while the Redskins are favored by 13 ˝ over the visiting Rams.

MY RECORD AGAINST THE SPREAD

Last week: 5-9

Season: 36-38

Chicago at Atlanta (2.5)

Last week: Chicago beat Detroit 34-7; Atlanta beat Green Bay 27-24.

The Chicago Bears and Atlanta Falcons were expected to be rebuilding this season. With strong play from the quarterback and running back positions, both teams have emerged as big surprises in the NFL.The NFC North-leading Bears look to win their third straight game, while the Falcons try to build off an impressive victory when they meet Sunday at the Georgia Dome. Rookie quarterback Matt Ryan has had mixed results against the two cover 2 teams he has face. He was successful against Detroit's version and had a tough time against Monte Kiffin's Tampa Bay unit. The Falcons' offensive line has improved its pass blocking, and that has afforded the rookie time to find his receivers. He'll face another test and perhaps better pressure from the Bears. The Bears do give up 223.4 yards passing a game, 23rd in the league. No one had the Falcons going into Lambeau Field and coming out with a victory last week. The Bears likely will be the favorite at the Georgia Dome and toss the Falcons around. But if the Falcons can get the running game going just enough and the wide receivers don't drop passes -- they dropped six against Carolinas and three against Green Bay -- this could be another upset special. Take Falcons.

Detroit at Minnesota (-13.5)

Last week: Detroit lost to Chicago 34-7; Minnesota beat New Orleans 30-27.

On Sunday, the woeful Lions will try to snap a 10-game slide at the Metrodome as they meet the Minnesota Vikings, who will try to build off their biggest win of 2008. Since 2001, Detroit was an NFL-worst 31-84 under general manager Matt Millen before finally firing him on Sept. 24. That change, though, failed to pay immediate dividends on the field. After a 34-7 loss to Chicago last week, the Lions (0-4) remain the only team without a point in the first quarter or a defensive interception at any point of a game. At 2-3, the Vikings are tied with Green Bay for second place in the division behind Chicago (3-2). The Vikings are coming off a win at New Orleans, a team that had Super Bowl aspirations to start the season. The Vikings didn't play well -- their offense struggled most of the night and Adrian Peterson rushed for just 32 yards -- but they took advantage of three key Saints turnovers. Minnesota must pass to establish the run. The tradition formula of running to set up the pass isn't working. The Lions haven't intercepted a pass this season, so Gus Frerotte must take advantage and be aggressive throwing the ball. Opposing quarterbacks have a 122.2 passer rating against the Lions, the NFL's highest figure. The Vikings have swept this series the last five years. Take Vikings.

Carolina at Tampa Bay (-1.5)

Last week: Carolina beat Kansas City 34-0; Tampa Bay lost to Denver 16-13.

The first game against Carolina ended in disaster for the Bucs each of the past two years. In 2006 Tampa Bay lost quarterback Chris Simms for the season to a spleen injury. Last season they lost starting left tackle Luke Petitgout and starting running back Cadillac Williams to knee injuries. None of the three is with the team today. What kind of disaster awaits the Bucs in this one? Well, they could come out of this game injury free and still be hurting, because a loss will drop them two games behind the Panthers in the NFC South title race. This then becomes something of a must win for the Bucs, whose only remaining division matchups are road games against Carolina and Atlanta and a home game against New Orleans. This game will feature a changing of the guard at quarterback for the Bucs, who finished last week on a good note when Jeff Garcia rallied them for a late touchdown after replacing an injured Brian Griese (elbow). Garcia is expected to start Sunday's game. Griese's play has slipped markedly since he took over as the starter a few weeks ago. The Panthers, meanwhile, come into the game riding a wave of success. They pounded away at the Chiefs last week and are 4-1 and off to their best start since reaching the Super Bowl after the 2003 season. They'll be looking to put the Bucs way behind in the race for the division crown. Take Panthers.

Jacksonville at Denver (-3.5)

Last week: Jacksonville lost to Pittsburgh 26-21; Denver beat Tampa Bay 16-13.

Denver regained some equilibrium after a stunning loss in Kansas City by beating a physical Tampa Bay team. It will be deja vu Sunday in terms of playing style from the smash-mouth Jaguars. The Broncos, led by their maligned defense, finally demonstrated that they could hold a team down when the offense isn't in shoot-out mode. The Broncos swarmed to the ball, limited big plays, created turnovers and, perhaps most important, put pressure on the quarterback.

The onus may be on Denver's defense again, with some injuries piling up on the offensive side of the ball that could keep playmakers Eddie Royal and Tony Scheffler out. The defensive challenge will be slightly different this week with Jacksonville QB David Garrard. The Broncos have yet to face someone who's as dangerous escaping the pocket as he is throwing from within it. Denver's defensive ends and linebackers will have to be conscious of their contain responsibilities. But overall, this may be a season-defining game for Jacksonville, coming off another disappointing