My record against the spread:

Two weeks ago: 1-1.

Season: 133-133.

Indianapolis vs New Orleans (-5.5)

There are plenty of story lines, starting with the men under center. The Colts' Peyton Manning is trying to further establish himself as one of the greatest quarterbacks in league history with a second Super Bowl championship in the past four seasons. He's coming off a league-record fourth MVP award, and adding another Lombardi Trophy to his resume would undoubtedly nudge him up everyone's all-time list. Saints QB Drew Brees is attempting to reinforce his standing among the elite active QBs. Brees hasn't performed as well or as long as Manning, but no one has been more productive in recent seasons.  

Another Super Bowl win will serve as an appropriate ending to the decade for the Colts. They were the Aught winningest franchise with 115 victories but had only one Super Bowl title, compared to the New England Patriots' three.

Is there a better feel-good story than the Saints? Remember when they were the Ain'ts? The franchise is making its first Super Bowl appearance and carries the hopes of a rebuilding region on its shoulders.

Almost every week, the Saints take the field with the best quarterback and offense. That needs to be the case again in Super Bowl 44. Not only do Brees & Co. need to match points with Manning and the Colts, but they also need to put the pressure on Indianapolis with a quick start. New Orleans is much better when playing with a lead, which opens things up for its run game and opportunistic defense.

The Saints got their ticket to Miami by punching Minnesota quarterback Brett Favre in the mouth. Though Favre wasn't sacked, he was repeatedly hit hard after throws and knocked to the turf. That led to two penalties against the Saints, but it also led to two fourth-quarter interceptions by a hobbled Favre.

New Orleans also forced six fumbles in the game and recovered three. It continued a trend that carried them through the regular season, when they ranked second in the NFL with 39 takeaways. The Saints will have a much harder time, though, trying to rattle a Colts offense that annually ranks among the best ball-control units in the league. Manning makes quick, smart decisions and generally prevents his team from making costly mistakes. New Orleans probably won't blitz the intelligent Manning often, but defensive coordinator Gregg Williams will try to confuse him by disguising schemes and bringing timely pressure.

The Saints' defense has been gashed by the run for the past few months, but the Colts can't really run the ball. Or they choose not to. Either way, they ranked last in the NFL in the regular season with an average of 80.9 rushing yards per game. They have decent options in fourth-year pro Joseph Addai and rookie Donald Brown if they decide they can burn a Saints defense that will likely focus most of its effort on coverage. But it's hard to believe the Colts will take the ball out of Manning's hands too often in the biggest game of the season.

The Colts have an offense with zero balance -- No. 2 in passing, No. 32 in rushing -- still needs to complement Manning's dangerous arsenal with an occasional dash of Addai and Brown. The ground tandem doesn't need to generate 150 rushing yards, but it needs to be effective when it's called upon. The threat of the run will make Manning's play-action fakes more potent and open up the downfield passing game.

Anyone who questioned the depth of Manning's receiving corps was silenced after the AFC championship game. Pro Bowl receiver Reggie Wayne and Pro Bowl tight end Dallas Clark combined for just seven catches, 90 yards and one touchdown. Young receivers Pierre Garcon (11 catches, 151 yards, 1 TD) and Austin Collie (7, 123, 1TD) torched the Jets' No. 1 defense. The Saints are an opportunistic bunch led by cornerbacks Jabari Greer and Tracy Porter and safety Darren Sharper, but the Colts should be able to spread the field and allow Manning to find favorable matchups.

Brees isn't the least bit shy when it comes to taking shots down the field, but he's expert at foiling aggressive defenses with dump-offs to running backs Reggie Bush and Pierre Thomas. They combined for 86 receptions, 637 yards and 5 touchdowns during the regular season. The Colts utilize an aggressive defensive front led by defensive ends Dwight Freeney –how effective will he be remains to be seen- and Robert Mathis, and it can be neutralized with screens.

It rained the last time the Colts played -- and won -- a Super Bowl in Miami. There should be some lightning bolts in this game. Each team's defense has had its moments this season, and a critical stop or takeaway could determine the outcome. But this game is likely to be about big plays and big yardage. Brees is on the big stage for the first time, but he shouldn't be in awe. Manning is back for a second time in four seasons and definitely won't be. The Colts' experience and their all-world quarterback will prove to be the difference. Take Colts.

MY RECORD AGAINST THE SPREAD:

Last week: 1-3

Season: 132-132.

NY Jets at Indianapolis (-7.5)

Last week: Jets beat Chargers 17-14; Colts beat Ravens 20-3.

The winningest team of the past decade is in an ideal position: It will be playing in front of what promises to be a thunderous Lucas Oil Stadium sellout crowd, one win away from a second Super Bowl appearance in the past four seasons. It's time for Peyton Manning and his experienced teammates to deliver.

Even though 18 players on the active roster are in the midst of their first postseason run, the pressure of the moment shouldn't be too great. The core leadership -- Manning, center Jeff Saturday, wide receiver Reggie Wayne, tight end Dallas Clark, linebacker Gary Brackett and defensive ends Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis -- has been here before.

Can the Colts finish off the Jets, something they refused to do on Dec. 27? That day, coach Jim Caldwell enraged the fan base by pulling the starters in the third quarter of what disintegrated into a 29-15 loss. The decision cost the team a chance at perfection.

The Jets are the latest Cinderella team to challenge for a Super Bowl berth. They needed that comeback win over the Colts to even qualify for the playoffs. Once in, they've gone on the road and imposed their blue-collar will on the Bengals and Chargers.

Hey, the Jets have to stick with what works. After having a 2-1 edge in takeaways over San Diego last week, the Jets are 10-0 when they have fewer giveaways than their opponents. That includes wins in their last four games. But they didn't force any turnovers against Peyton Manning in the first meeting, and that must change for them to win the rematch. They must find a way to pressure Peyton.

Nobody is suggesting that the Jets should abandon the "ground and pound" philosophy that has gotten them this far, but keep in mind that 145 of their 202 rushing yards in the first meeting with Indianapolis came after Manning had been removed from the game, after all the emotion and momentum had shifted to the Jets. A well-timed long pass or two could work wonders, particularly if the Colts, as expected, stack the box.

True, the Jets are on a normal work week, but they lost time having to fly back from the West Coast. This will be their sixth road game in an eight-week span, so coach Rex Ryan made a concession to possible fatigue by giving his team two days off at the start of the week. Indianapolis had an extra day to prepare and hasn't left home in three weeks, so the Colts figure to be much fresher. The Jets must ignore that and run on pure emotion.

The Colt's defense stymied the Ravens' punishing ground game in a divisional round win, and it should be utilized against the Jets' 1-2 punch of running backs Thomas Jones and Shonn Greene. The plan consists of being stout at the point of attack with tackles Dan Muir and Antonio Johnson, and having linebackers Clint Session and Gary Brackett and safeties Melvin Bullitt and Antoine Bethea fill their gaps and swarm to the ball.

It's no secret. The Jets will try to control the game and the clock with Jones and Greene, and limit what they ask from rookie QB Mark Sanchez. Limiting New York's ground game should produce more favorable situations on third down, which should enable ends

Rex Ryan's defense is physical and aggressive. Its makeup leads to uneven play even for the most efficient offense. Things aren't likely to come easily for Manning, especially if the Jets are able to exert pressure. But in what promises to be a tight game against an opponent not built for high-scoring games, it's incumbent upon Manning to take care of the football and not give the Jets short-field opportunities or easy scores.

The Colts could have KO'd the Jets in December, but declined. Now they've got to close the deal with a trip to Super Bowl XLIV on the line. The Jets are a brass-knuckles bunch and the warm-and-fuzzy story among the NFL's Final Four. But they aren't likely to score enough to keep up with Manning. With so much on the line, Manning will show why he's the league's MVP, but the Jets keep it close. Take points and Jets.

Minnesota at New Orleans (-3.5)

Last week: Vikings beat Cowboys 34-3 ; Saints beat Cardinals 45-14.

The quarterbacks are as good as it gets. Minnesota's Brett Favre is remarkably having one of the best seasons of his Hall of Fame career, and he played one of his best games Sunday, throwing four touchdown passes in a 34-3 rout of the Dallas Cowboys.

But Favre didn't come out of retirement again to settle for the NFC Championship Game. It's Super Bowl or bust for the NFL's all-time leader in passing yards and passing touchdowns, who has not been back to the Super Bowl since losing to Denver 12 years ago.

New Orleans' Drew Brees, meanwhile, is trying to get to his first Super Bowl and, in the process, break into that elite stratosphere of quarterbacks. Brees, who turned 31 last week, set the NFL record for completion percentage in a season, and he became the second quarterback to throw for 4,000 yards in four consecutive seasons (joining Peyton Manning).

Last year, Brees was the second QB ever to throw for 5,000 in a season. But he knows that he'll ultimately be judged by how he performs in games like these.

As it should be, the NFC title will be decided by a showdown between the two best teams. The Saints (14-3) and Vikings (13-4) were dominant for much of the season before a couple of mini-slumps in December. And both of them reached their peak last week in the divisional round of the NFC playoffs, winning by the same margin -- 31 points.

This should be the toughest matchup to date for both teams. Each team can score points. The Saints offense, which led the league in points scored, is thrilling to watch and creates matchup nightmares for defenses because it is so deep and versatile. The Vikings offense is even more balanced, though, with Favre playing as well as ever while defenses continue to focus on stopping All-Pro tailback Adrian Peterson.

The Vikings have a fearsome defensive front, and the Saints have an aggressive, opportunistic defense. And both teams are built to take advantage of the other's biggest weakness (for the Saints, it's their porous run defense; for the Vikings, it's their shaky play at safety). There will be no free rides into the Super Bowl.

Saints safety Darren Sharper will provide a fascinating subplot for several reasons. For one, he's dying to make his former team pay for giving up on him last offseason, where he lingered in free agency before settling on a one-year bargain deal in New Orleans.

He also has a longtime personal relationship with Favre, who was his teammate in Green Bay for eight years before they became rivals when Sharper went to Minnesota. And like Favre, Sharper is trying to get back to the Super Bowl for the first time in 12 years as he heads toward the twilight of his career.

It would be shocking if Sharper didn't have a major impact on how this game plays out. He has been an incredible playmaker for the Saints this year, helping to lead their drastic culture change on defense. He intercepted nine passes with three touchdown returns and an NFL record 376 interception return yards this season, then added a fumble recovery last week against Arizona (plus an interception that was called back by a late hit).

Sharper does like to gamble, though, and Favre knows him as well as anybody, so they'll try to pick on each other.

The Vikings, meanwhile, could really use Sharper on their side in this game. Their safeties have not stepped up consistently in Sharper's absence, and now they're going against arguably the league's most dangerous passing offense.

The Saints' biggest weakness is their run defense, and the Vikings must exploit that with Adrian Peterson's strong cutbacks, a facet of opposing running backs that has given New Orleans problems. The Vikings are 6-0 when Peterson carries the ball at least 25 times, including the 34-3 victory over Dallas in the divisional round. Peterson had 26 carries for 63 yards.

When Peterson gets a high number of carries, it helps the offense control time of possession and the linemen have the chance to assert their will on defensive linemen eager to rush Favre.

Brees is one of the least sacked players in the NFL in recent years because of his mobility and quick release under pressure. The Vikings don't need to necessarily sack Brees often to win this game, but they must keep him from buying extra time getting outside of the pocket. If pass rushers can put pressure on Brees with the front four, as they did last week against Dallas, the secondary won't have to cover the Saints' dangerous receivers as long.

When healthy, the Saints' starting cornerback tandem of Tracy Porter and Jabari Greer are a force for opposing receivers. Porter and Greer allowed one passing touchdown in their season's first eight games. It's up to Vikings receivers to get open and give Favre openings to hit them. This is the biggest game in the young pro careers of Percy Harvin (questionable for the game) and Sidney Rice, and they need to respond to the tough matchup.

Tailback Reggie Bush looked healthier, faster and more dangerous than ever last week against the Cardinals. The receivers create matchup nightmares: Marques Colston (a big, tall target with great hands), Devery Henderson and Robert Meachem (speedy downfield threats) and Lance Moore (a shifty target with great hands in the mold of Wes Welker and Miles Austin). Tight end Jeremy Shockey is one of the best receivers at his position. And the Saints have been running the ball effectively.

Brees' ability to avoid sacks is in large part because he makes quick decisions, gets rid of the ball and finds holes in defenses. Defenses rarely have success when they blitz against him. But he's obviously more dangerous when he has time in the pocket to wait for plays to open up downfield.

And Minnesota's front four, led by end Jared Allen and tackle Kevin Williams, rarely give quarterbacks that time, especially on the fast track inside a dome. This will be a huge test for Saints left tackle Jermon Bushrod, who has been mostly solid in his first season as the Saints starter.

Bushrod had a forgettable performance against Dallas in Week 15, as did the entire Saints' pass protection. But he held his own against Julius Peppers, John Abraham and the Giants and Jets, among others. The Saints will surely offer him help with blocking help from tight ends and backs, but that takes a receiver out of the fold.

The Saints have been vulnerable to big plays in the run game, especially on the opening drive this year. And once again, they let Arizona's Tim Hightower break off a 70-yard touchdown run on the first play of scrimmage last week.

They settled down after that, allowing 31 rushing yards the rest of the game. But their run defense was inconsistent past three months. It has been especially porous against cutback runs, but the problems have stemmed from missed assignments to missed tackles in every level of the defense.

A painfully long drought will end for one of these tortured franchises. The Vikings went to four Super Bowls in the 1960s and 1970s and lost all four of them. They haven't been back in 33 years. But they have nothing on the Saints, who have never reached a Super Bowl in 43 years -- one of five teams left on that list. In fact, this will be the first time New Orleans has ever been host to an NFC championship game. Expect a frenzied Superdome crowd that will do all it can to will the Saints to victory. This game could be decided by a field goal. Take points and Vikings.

My record against the spread:

Last week: 3-1

Season: 131-129.

Arizona at New Orleans (-6.5)

Last week: Cardinals beat Packers 51-45; Saints lost to Panthers two weeks ago 23-10.

This has all the makings of another spectacular offensive display, with two of the game's most dynamic offenses and skilled quarterbacks going head-to-head. The Saints led the NFL in scoring at 31.9 points per game, and the Cardinals just won a 51-45 overtime shootout against Green Bay in the wild-card round.

Obviously, both teams plan on playing some defense Saturday afternoon, but there should be plenty of touchdowns. Saints QB Drew Brees finished second in the NFL's MVP voting, setting a league-record for completion percentage (70.62) while throwing for 4,388 yards, 34 touchdowns and a league-high passer rating of 109.6. Cardinals QB Kurt Warner was a little more Clark Kent in the regular season, but as usual he turned into Superman when the playoffs began, throwing more TD passes last week (five) than he did incomplete passes (four).

Everyone's curious to see how the Saints look after a lengthy hiatus, including the Saints. After a spectacular 13-0 start, New Orleans hasn't won a game in more than a month now. The Saints sustained their first loss against the now-scorching Cowboys at the Superdome in Week 15, then followed that up with a hangover loss at home against lowly Tampa Bay. And Saints coach Sean Payton mostly rested his starters in Week 17 at Carolina, favoring health and rest over momentum. We'll find out which is more important.

The Saints should, indeed, be  healthier and complete team than they've been since midseason. Most important, starting cornerbacks Jabari Greer and Tracy Porter will be back at full speed. The Saints' defense was much better with Greer and Porter in the lineup the first two months.

Once again, most NFL observers were sleeping on the Cardinals after a sluggish regular-season finish. And once again, they saved their best for the playoffs. Arizona was flawless on offense last week, even without injured receiver Anquan Boldin. Warner and Pro Bowl wide receiver Larry Fitzgerald are a deadly combination, and several players add help around them, including rookie running back Beanie Wells, who has given the Cardinals a decent rushing attack.

But the Cardinals' defense is obviously shaky. They don't apply enough pressure, and they aren't deep in the secondary behind their top three playmakers. They were opportunistic last week, forcing two early turnovers to set the tone against Green Bay and then winning the game on a sack/fumble that was returned for a touchdown in overtime.

The Packers scored 45 points last week, largely by making plays through the air. In almost every instance, a Cardinals defensive back missed a tackle. It wasn't just one person making mistakes. Everyone was at fault, but cornerback Bryant McFadden, particularly, was exposed. The Cardinals can't afford to be that sloppy again.

Opponents that have given the Cardinals trouble have been able to pressure Warner without blitzing too much. The problem for the Saints is the Cardinals have an effective short passing game and now can run the ball. If they can run effectively Saturday, Warner should be able to make some plays downfield.

Success early in the game gives the Cardinals confidence throughout. That's what happened against the Packers, when the Cardinals forced two turnovers on Green Bay's first three plays. That helped get the Cardinals in rhythm on offense, and it carried them to victory.

For most of the year, the Saints were threatening the 2007 Patriots' record for most points scored in a season. But their offense turned uncharacteristically sluggish in November and December, especially early in games. The Saints must score in this game, early and often, because it's what they do best and they're a much more effective team when playing with a lead. The Saints' running game becomes more efficient, and their opportunistic defense loves to pounce on desperate teams. Not that the Saints can't play catch-up, if needed. The Saints can score in bunches with Brees and his embarrassment of weapons.

The Saints' run defense was their biggest weakness the past three months and hit rock bottom when they let the one-dimensional Buccaneers run all over them in Week 16. Fortunately, the Cardinals aren't a power-running team and finished 28th in rushing yards. But Wells has been coming on strong and broke off some big runs last week, so the Saints must bottle him up. The Saints' biggest issue has been keeping containment on the back side, allowing some big cutback runs. But they've been getting gashed up the middle at times, too, and everyone has missed tackles. Having the cornerbacks healthy should be a bonus here, because it will allow the Saints to take more chances up front and to use strong safety Roman Harper more frequently in run support.

All teams strive in winning the turnover battle, especially the playoffs. But it will be especially important in a game where every offensive possession could result in points. The Saints must look no further than last week when the Packers were done in by two early turnovers that put them in a 17-0 hole against Arizona. Then after Green Bay clawed back, the Cardinals forced another game-winning turnover in overtime. The Saints are pretty good with ball security. Brees will take some chances, but they're usually calculated risks. And the Saints' defense is an aggressive bunch that's also willing to gamble, which led to 39 takeaways this year (second in the NFL). It will help if the Saints can get pressure on Warner, who isn't mobile and can get rattled.

Neither team can afford to start slow or be sloppy with the football in this game, because the other offense will pounce quickly. The Saints need to prove they can flip the switch back on after their December struggles, but they've been at their best in high-profile games, most recently their Monday night rout over New England in Week 12.

Arizona was obviously able to flip that switch on last week, just like they did on the way to the Super Bowl a year ago. But the Cardinals seem to have a slimmer margin for error now, with more question marks across the board, especially if Boldin is out or limited. Both teams are hoping it won't come down to the kickers, but it just might. Take points and Cardinals.

Baltimore at Indianapolis (-6.5)

Last week: Ravens beat Patriots 33-14; Colts lost to Bills two weeks ago 30-7.

Colts QB Peyton Manning earned a record fourth MVP award last week. The magnitude of that could lessen if he's unable to lead his teammates past the Ravens on Saturday night.

The Colts hardly are a one-man show, but Manning is the offensive catalyst who sets the tone. Despite his presence, the franchise has lost its first playoff game in six of its nine appearances since his arrival in 1998. Another one-and-done would be tough for the organization, and city, to stomach.

The organization eschewed perfection during the regular season to focus on being as healthy as possible for postseason. After directing the team to a 14-0 start, coach Jim Caldwell infuriated a large portion of the team's fan base by limiting the playing time of Manning and other front-line players in closing losses to the Jets and Bills. If the team comes out rusty or flat and fails to advance despite being rested and healthy, Colts fans will scream loud and long.

The chess match between Manning and Ravens inside linebacker Ray Lewis always is worth the price of admission. Manning is an expert at making pre-snap reads and adjustments. Lewis prides himself on matching wits with Manning. The game's outcome might come down to who is able to guess right the most.

The Ravens must run directly at the Colts. Indianapolis has too much speed to be beaten on the perimeter. Big offensive tackles Michael Oher and Jared Gaither should allow the team to run directly at the Colts' lightweight defensive line, especially Pro Bowl ends Robert Mathis and Dwight Freeney. If the Ravens run effectively early, that would force the Colts to put one or both safeties near the box and out of their comfortable cover-2 zone. That's when the passing game will succeed.

The Raven's blitzes should come up the middle, not off the perimeter. Manning and New England QB Tom Brady aren't bothered by outside pressure because they can adjust and sidestep those blitzes without difficulty. But both Manning and Brady have trouble with blitzes up the middle because opponents get in their face quickly. Last week against Brady, the Ravens had great success by blitzing outside linebackers up the middle. Expect more of the same Saturday night against Manning.

The Ravens can play with the Colts and should have beaten them Nov. 22. In the past, the Colts haven't played well following a bye in the playoffs. They Ravens must score early, and plant that seed of doubt again. Also, the Ravens are playing with a lot of confidence and an early touchdown would allow that to grow.

And that one dimension is throwing the ball. Baltimore ran over New England last week with 234 yards on 52 carries. Ray Rice and Willis McGahee combined for 221 yards on 42 carries. Colts defensive coordinator Larry Coyer's front seven must limit the damage by swarming to the ball. The return of linebacker Clint Session and safety Melvin Bullitt are huge plusses. Against Baltimore in Week 11, the Colts limited the Ravens to 98 yards on 31 rushes. Baltimore QB Joe Flacco is dealing with a hip injury and is immobile. Make him, not Rice or McGahee, win the game.

The Colts are virtually unbeatable when Manning runs an error-free offense. They've won 25 consecutive regular-season games when not turning the ball over. That streak includes four wins over the opportunistic Ravens. The Colts' offense, though, had three turnovers against Baltimore in November, including two Manning interceptions. That allowed the Ravens to hang around and necessitated a late-game stop by the defense to secure the win. Lewis, safety Ed Reed and the rest of the defense will force the issue. Manning must remain patient and capitalize when big-play opportunities are presented.

Arguably the best kicker in NFL history, Vinatieri still isn't 100 percent after October arthroscopic surgery on his right knee. The Colts will rely on Matt Stover, the Ravens' career scoring and field-goal leader. If the Ravens' defense stiffens or the Colts' offense falters, it will be imperative for Stover to finish drives with field goals. In November's 17-15 Colts win over the Ravens, he delivered the winning margin in the fourth quarter with a 25-yard field goal. Ravens kicker Billy Cundiff accounted for all of his team's scoring with five field goals in November but missed a 30-yarder. The importance of knocking down field goals was most evident when the Colts beat the Ravens in Baltimore in a 2006 playoffs. Vinatieri delivered all of their scoring in a 15-6 win.

The building will be rocking and the pressure will be on for Manning and the No. 1-seeded Colts. And there will be no excuses. Caldwell's decision to ease up in the final two regular-season games produced the desired results: his team is rested and healthy. Even if it takes the Colts a series or two to regain their rhythm on both sides of the ball after the bye, they'll find it and do more than enough, especially offensively, to dismiss the Ravens. Barring another 200-yard rushing performance by Rice and McGahee, the Colts move on but Ravens cover. Take points and Ravens.

Dallas at Minnesota (-2.5)

Last week: Cowboys beat Eagles 34-14; Vikings beat Giants two weeks ago 44-7.

A couple of weeks ago, the NFC playoffs appeared to be wide open as the Vikings and Saints stumbled through December. Now the hot team is Dallas, which has quickly gained momentum after back-to-back wins over Philadelphia, including a 34-14 trouncing in the wild-card round. The third-seeded Cowboys are favored by many to defeat the second-seeded Vikings on Sunday. The Cowboys are 2 ½  point underdogs on the road, but it's the Vikings who feel they're being overlooked.

It's an interesting matchup that features two quarterbacks who have toned down their gunslinging ways this season. Dallas' Tony Romo and Minnesota's Brett Favre both set career lows for interceptions this season. Sunday's outcome could come down to which quarterback makes fewer mistakes.

Wade Phillips, who coached the Cowboys to their first playoff win since 1996, is known for his acumen on defense. And how his 3-4 system performs against a Vikings team loaded with options in the West Coast offense could become the biggest factor in the game.

The Cowboys have no chance to win if Minnesota can run and pass whenever it chooses. It must slow RB Adrian Peterson enough to make the Vikings one-dimensional. Then Dallas can attack Favre with an array of blitzes and hope he makes mistakes. Peterson had a down year but still gained 1,383 yards, averaged 4.4 per carry and scored 18 touchdowns. He had only three 100-yard games but had four others with more than 90 yards. The Cowboys finished fourth in the NFL against the run (90.5) and did not allow a 100-yard rusher this season.

Minnesota's offense is a beast in the Metrodome, where the Vikings have not scored fewer than 27 points while going 8-0. Dallas has allowed more than 21 points twice this season and the Giants did it both times. The Cowboys' defense has been sensational the last month, yielding just 31 points combined and recording two shutouts. The emergence of outside linebacker Anthony Spencer and cornerback Mike Jenkins has given the Cowboys two more playmakers, All-Pro outside linebacker DeMarcus Ware and All-Pro nose tackle Jay Ratliff are the others, surrounded by a core of solid players. The Vikings' offense will be the ninth top-10 attack the Cowboys have faced this season, and only the Giants have surpassed their average in points and yards against Dallas.

The Cowboys finished the season No. 2 in the NFL in offensive penalties (65) and No. 1 in offensive penalty yardage (491). They backed up their poor standing with nine offensive penalties last week against Philadelphia, some of which resulted in the Cowboys failing to score after entering the red zone. Dallas can't afford to leave points on the field because of offensive penalties.

Vikings offensive tackles Bryant McKinnie and Phil Loadholt must contain Ware and Spencer, who combined for three of the four sacks on Philadelphia's Donovan McNabb last week. McKinnie and Loadholt do struggle at times with speed rushers. McKinnie was voted to the Pro Bowl this year, but he struggled late in the year against the speed and power of Carolina's Julius Peppers and was benched in the second half.

To neutralize the Dallas pass rush, the Vikings say they want to establish the run. That would help the offensive line set the tone as a physical group. Peterson will be needed in these playoffs. He must protect the ball after leading the league in lost fumbles (six). A good ground game would take the pressure off Favre. The Cowboys made the Philadelphia offense one-dimensional with just 13 rushing attempts last week. The Vikings can't let a similar situation unfold.

Romo's big-play receiver, Miles Austin, could be a big challenge for an up-and-down secondary. If cornerback Antoine Winfield (foot) doesn't play his usual position on the outside, the Vikings would be forced to rely on Benny Sapp and Cedric Griffin to handle the majority of the snaps against Austin. Winfield played in the nickel defense against the Giants two weeks ago because he wasn't 100 percent. Austin has good speed, and Winfield wasn't a burner even when healthy. This could prove to be quite the mismatch for Dallas.

Vikings coach Brad Childress is looking for his first playoff win after losing to Philadelphia in the wild-card round last season with Tarvaris Jackson at quarterback. The Vikings need to put the ball in Brett Favre's hands. This is why they signed him: to lead them in the playoffs. If he fails, so be it. The team has played its best football when Favre is the focal point of the offense, and they need to trust the same formula to work again.

If this game is close, the X-factor could be the fact that the Vikings have an excellent kicker (Ryan Longwell), while the Cowboys are relying on Shaun Suisham, who was released by Washington in December after missing a short field goal against the Saints. The Vikings are undefeated at home this season, but Dallas is on a roll. Take Cowboys.

NY Jets at San Diego (-7.5)

Last week: Jets beat Bengals 24-14; Chargers beat Redskins two weeks ago 23-20.

The Jets received a gift postseason berth, but they proved worthy of being in the playoffs with one of their finest all-around performances in last week's wild-card victory at Cincinnati. The Chargers, on the other hand, have won 11 in a row, with victories over the entire NFC East and Cincinnati along the way. Both teams are playing with confidence.

This will be a matchup of strength vs. strength. The Chargers averaged 28.4 points, fourth in the NFL. The Jets allowed 14.8 points, fewest in the league. The Chargers do most of their damage through the air, averaging 271.1 yards passing, fifth in the league. The Jets are the NFL's stingiest pass defense, allowing just 153.7 yards per game. The key matchups in the secondary will be worth the price of admission, with All-Pro cornerback Darrelle Revis most likely to shadow Pro Bowl receiver Vincent Jackson and the Jets' safeties getting physical with Pro Bowl tight end Antonio Gates.

Chargers Pro Bowl QB Philip Rivers loves the game and lets his emotions show. That the Jets' defense does its own talking could only add to the entertainment value. This is also where the game could be won and lost. Rivers won't be stupid going after Revis, but he has yet to shy away from opponents' top cornerback. With the Chargers' slew of tall receivers and Rivers' knack for putting the ball where only they can catch it, the results are sometimes spectacular. Of course, Revis has seven interceptions in 17 games and likely will provide Jackson his stiffest challenge.

Yes, it's repetitious but true. In games in which they have more takeaways than their opponents, the Jets are 9-0, including wins in their last three games. The latest was the playoff victory over Cincinnati in which Revis had an interception and defensive end Shaun Ellis recovered a fumble. The Jets committed no turnovers last week. They are 0-5 in games in which they have more giveaways. San Diego's 17 turnovers were the second-fewest in the NFL this season.

San Diego hasn't scored fewer than 20 points in a game this season, so it might not be realistic for even the Jets' No. 1-ranked defense to hold down San Diego for too long. But the Jets can't give up too many big plays to Rivers, Jackson, Gates, etc., or they will find themselves playing catch-up with an offense more suited to play from ahead.

True, the Jets had an extra day to prepare because they played last Saturday, but this will be their fifth road game in a seven-week span and will be flying cross-country to San Diego. The emotional Jets must not expend too much energy early in the game or else might have little in the tank for the second half.

Rookie quarterback Mark Sanchez was as efficient as the Bengals allowed him to be last week. He completed 12-of-15 passes, which is impressive. Even more impressive was that he could get away with attempting that few, as the Jets moved the ball on the ground. The Chargers, who were 20th against the run in the regular season, must stop the Jets' top-ranked rushing attack early and make Sanchez convert on second-and-long and third-and-long. Pressure and coverage are the strengths of the Chargers' defense.

The Chargers have outscored opponents 83-16 in the first quarter during their 11-game winning streak. It's imperative that they establish early that they will dictate the course of the game; the Jets win with defense and running and presumably would like to play this game at a leisurely pace. Making Sanchez play from behind and making the Jets' defense less aggressive is an almost sure recipe for success.

The Chargers might have too many weapons on offense, and their run defense improved greatly over the final month of the season. There is little reason to believe their run won't continue. If they can put Sanchez in uncomfortable positions, they should have success.

 The Jets have confidence, sure, but being on the road against a good team and down early with a rookie QB could put them in a situation they can't overcome. And the Chargers are playing with a rare assuredness; they've won big games all through November and December, and they've been in the playoffs four seasons in a row. Chargers win but Jets cover. Take points and Jets.

My record against the spread:

Last week: 7-9

Season: 128-128.

NY Jets at Cincinnati (-2.5)

Last week: Jets beat Bengals 37-0.

The Bengals crash the postseason party for the first time since the 2005 season and for only the second time in 19 years. It's a rarity, and the only way to make it memorable is to rebound from that embarrassing 37-0 loss to the Jets in the regular-season finale on national TV and win the wild card rematch at Cincinnati's Paul Brown Stadium. If the Bengals follow up their first-round playoff defeat in '05 with another quick exit, disappointment as well as disgust will reign in the Queen City.

The Jets boast the NFL's No. 1 defense (252.3 yards) and the league's No. 1 rushing attack (172.2), but they're second to last in passing and 20th overall on offense. The numbers are clear signs that rookie QB Mark Sanchez is well-protected by a stellar defense and strong running game. Jets head coach Rex Ryan is simply asking Sanchez to manage games, not win them all by himself. The same goes for Bengals QB Carson Palmer, who is surrounded by the league's No. 9 rushing attack (128.5) and No. 4 defense (301.4).

The game marks the first time the Bengals will play the same opponent in consecutive weeks. The closest previous instance was in 1990 when they clawed the Houston Oilers, 41-14, in the wild card playoff round two weeks after beating them, 40-20, in Week 15. The last team to beat the Bengals in a playoff game in Cincinnati? The Jets, 44-17, on Jan. 9, 1983. Saturday will be the 27th anniversary of the Jet's rout; will history repeat? Stay tuned.

In games in which they have more takeaways than their opponents, the Jets are 8-0, including wins in their last two regular-season games. And they are 0-5 in games in which they have more giveaways. The Jets must run the ball effectively, as they did Sunday against the Bengals, and keep the game from being decided by Sanchez.

QB Carson Palmer started and played into the third quarter last week but the Bengals showed little on offense keeping the game plan as vanilla as possible. While the Jets certainly didn't show everything in their defensive arsenal last week, they showed more than Cincinnati because it was a must-win game for New York. The Jets must prepare for many more wrinkles from Palmer & Co. on Saturday.

Wide receiver/Wildcat QB/return man Brad Smith has been a key cog in the Jets' past two victories, but the Bengals surely will be more prepared for him this time around. If Cincinnati forces him to pitch out when he runs the option, it will be up to trailing back Shonn Greene to make something happen. Or perhaps Sanchez will need to turn it loose once or twice and look for Braylon Edwards downfield.

The Jets have formidable runners in Thomas Jones (1,402 yards), Greene (540) and Smith (207). Jones is fast, quick and elusive, Greene is a hammer and Smith is a valuable weapon out of the Wildcat formation. If the Bengals can't contain them to create third-and-long situations, they'll be at the mercy of the clock-eating Jets.

To prevail, the Bengals must win the turnover battle. They're 37-6-1 under Coach Marvin Lewis when they generate a positive turnover differential. On the flip side, they're 7-35 under Lewis when they lose the turnover battle. The Bengals, who have been limited to three second-half touchdowns in the past nine games, must create opportunities and take advantage of them.

Bengal RB Cedric Benson and the offensive line hold the keys to victory. The line is built to run the ball, and Benson has the speed, power, quickness and agility to move the chains and cross the goal line. The Bengals' goal is to keep the game close, then win it in the fourth quarter in true "Cardiac Cats" style like they did so many times this season.

Cincinnati has scored only 49 points in the third quarter this season, a sign they struggle with halftime adjustments. The offense also is famous for false-start penalties and alignment and assignment errors. If they don't clean up the mistakes, they can't win.

The Bengals made their intentions clear in the final game of the regular season. They preferred to take their chances in a playoff rematch against Sanchez rather than face Texans gunslinger Matt Schaub.

The Bengals, who get two injured starters -- defensive tackle Domata Peko and free safety Chris Crocker -- back for the playoffs, believe they can contain New York's vaunted running attack and cause Sanchez to make mistakes by throwing the ball sooner than he wants.

Like the Jets on Sunday night, the Bengals will have a stadium full of passionate fans behind them. But that won't bother the confident Jets, who have exactly what you need come playoff time --- a great defense, a great rushing attack and momentum. Take Jets.

Philadelphia at Dallas (-3.5)

Last week: Eagles lost to Cowboys 24-0.

The Cowboys have a wretched streak of 12 consecutive seasons without a playoff win. The only way to end this streak is to beat their nemesis Philadelphia. The Cowboys already have beaten Philadelphia twice this season, but it won't be easy to beat the Eagles a third time.

The matchup remains the same: The Cowboys have the better defense, and the Eagles have the better offense. The difference: The Cowboys' defense has a bigger edge on the Eagles' offense than the Eagles' defense has on the Cowboys' offense. Dallas has scored at least 20 points in each game this season, and the Eagles have managed just one touchdown in eight quarters against the Dallas D.

If the Eagles can't get their big-play offense untracked this week, then they have no chance to beat the Cowboys. DeSean Jackson has just 76 yards receiving and no touchdowns in two games against Dallas. Donovan McNabb has one touchdown and two interceptions against Dallas, and running backs LeSean McCoy and Brian Westbrook essentially have been non-factors.

The Cowboys are playing with a confidence they have rarely displayed in the last decade. They're starting fast and letting their defense dictate the game. It's up to Philadelphia to match their intensity.

Perhaps overanxious to make plays with a division title at stake last week, Eagles receivers dropped at least five passes and McNabb lost a fumble when he couldn't handle a low snap. The receivers must make routine catches Saturday night, especially on third downs, to move the chains and keep Dallas' defense on its heels.

Jackson, among the best big-play receivers in the game, has five 100-yard games and nine touchdowns, but he has been a non-factor in two games against Dallas. Eagles coach Andy Reid must design more plays that give Jackson an opportunity to make plays, and McNabb can't miss them. The Cowboys have slowed Jackson by mixing coverages man and zone as well as occasionally giving their cornerbacks deep help and also using some bump-and-run.

Westbrook's return has thrown off the running game. Leonard Weaver and McCoy, who carried the load while Westbrook missed seven games from concussions, only carried the ball twice last week for 6 yards combined. They must be more involved Saturday night, and the coaches must keep the offense balanced.

In two games against Dallas, McNabb has completed fewer than 60 percent of his passes with virtually no impact. Part of the reason is the Cowboys have kept him in the pocket, sacking him seven times and keeping him from extending drives and making big plays out of chaos with his legs. The Cowboys can keep him contained because nose tackle Jay Ratliff does a good job of penetrating up the middle, stopping McNabb from stepping up into the pocket. Pressure from outside linebackers Anthony Spencer and DeMarcus Ware keep him hemmed in.

QB Tony Romo threw 34 passes last week against Philadelphia and rarely was touched. That's among the reasons he finished with 311 yards passing and two touchdowns and a bevy of completions of 20-plus yards. No way will the Eagles let him sit in the pocket and take his time Saturday. Philadelphia will unleash every blitz it has in hopes of making Romo make bad decisions under duress. They sacked him four times in the Nov. 8 game, which Dallas needed a fourth-quarter TD pass from Romo to Miles Austin to win.

The Eagles' defense is small up front, especially when using nickel personnel and bringing in defensive ends to play tackle. The Cowboys used that to their advantage last week as Marion Barber and Felix Jones steamrolled the Eagles for 182 yards rushing and took advantage of a massive offensive line that plowed its way downfield. Eagles defenders must shed blocks faster and swarm to the ball.

Beating a team three times in one season is difficult, but it's not nearly the super human feat we're led to believe. Dallas has yielded one touchdown to Philadelphia and its high-scoring offense in eight quarters. There's no reason to think that will change in Game 3. With a beat up offensive line, Philadelphia will find it difficult to keep the pass rush at bay. Wins over New Orleans and convincing victory over Philadelphia last week to win the NFC East have the Cowboys feeling confident. Take Cowboys.

Baltimore at New England (-3.5)

Last week: Ravens beat Raiders 21-13; Patriots lost to Texans 34-27.

Can the Patriots overcome the loss of Wes Welker, the NFL's leading receiver? The sight of Welker crying into his towel on the sidelines last Sunday, his knee torn to bits, is something that will stick with Patriots fans. Can one of the most prolific offenses still function? Tom Brady & Co. will move on and click again, but it won't be easy.

Can the Ravens upset the handicappers? Few experts are picking the Ravens. Baltimore, the No. 6 seed in the AFC, has the near-impossible task of trying to be the first team to hand Brady a home playoff loss; he's 8-0 in home playoff games. Sound impossible? Perhaps you didn't hear Ravens cornerback Domonique Foxworth officially declare the Patriots "beatable." Baltimore did turn in two upset playoff wins last year.

The Patriots' season has been imperfect in many ways. Fourth-quarter leads have evaporated, the invincible Brady has been inconsistent as he battles injuries to his ribs and ring finger, and the secondary has a propensity for allowing big plays. Yet still, it's the Patriots. Three rings. Belichick and Brady. Mystique. They might not be the machine of years past, but you might not want to stop watching.

Raven QB Joe Flacco struggled in the second half of the season, especially in the last two games. New England cornerbacks Darius Butler and Leigh Bodden are suspect, so the Ravens will have opportunities to throw downfield. If Flacco is on, the Ravens have a chance to pull the upset. If he is hot, the Ravens could win big.

In big games this season, the Ravens have self-destructed with penalties. The Ravens, especially on the defensive side of the ball, are infamous for late hits and unsportsmanlike conduct penalties that keep opponents' drives alive. The Ravens were the third-most penalized team in the league. To beat New England, the Ravens must be on their best behavior, especially in Foxborough, where Belichick gets a lot of home cooking.

The Steelers and Raiders blitzed the Ravens often in the last two games, so the Patriots will employ the same game plan and blitz a lot off the perimeter. The Ravens must do a better job in recognition, especially Flacco, because he must make the hot reads. The Ravens' offensive linemen also have been slow to make decisions on which players needed to chip block (tight ends or running backs) or if the guards needed to pull.

The Patriots thrived in the Week 4 game against Baltimore, in part, because Brady kept the ball away from the dynamic Ed Reed. Reed has battled injury issues and won't be 100 percent Sunday. He'll still be strong enough to play mind games with Brady, and it'll be easier without Welker. Brady must locate Reed on every play and steer clear.

As if it's not enough pressure to be the receiver handed Welker's job, his replacement Julian Edelman is just a rookie who played quarterback in college. And it's the playoffs. To ease Edelman into the biggest day of his life, Patriots coaches must hold his hand. To start, simple is the way to go. Make it easy. If Edelman does half of what Welker did, the offense will have a big day.

For all the Patriots' flaws, most seem to evaporate at home. They haven't allowed any late comebacks, and their running game looks to be able to hang with the best -- in Gillette Stadium. All that will be important. Just as evident is how much they will need to pressure quarterback Joe Flacco, who is looking beaten down and weary during the second half of the season.

This is the time to attack him. And thanks to a newly improved pass rush led by Tully Banta-Cain and Derrick Burgess, they can. But most importantly, during a season that includes Tom Brady's return from a knee injury, there is no way it'll end in a whimper at home. Patriots by a field goal. Take Ravens.

Green Bay at Arizona (-2.5)

Last week: Packers beat Cardinals 33-7.

The Packers pounded the Cardinals in two meaningless games; one in preseason and again in the season finale. Last week, Cardinals coach Ken Whisenhunt pulled most of his starters after the first quarter while the Packers' starters played through three quarters. The result was a 33-7 victory by Green Bay. The Cardinals aren't attaching any significance to it, since they didn't game plan for the contest or use front-line players. At full strength, can the Cardinals change the result this week?

Can Cardinals protect the quarterback? The key to stopping the Cardinals is pressuring Kurt Warner with a minimal blitzing. Last week, Packers outside linebacker Clay Matthews beat right tackle Levi Brown in the first quarter. If the Packers can bring pressure from the edge, the Cardinals are in trouble. Packers cornerback Charles Woodson is smart and athletic and can make plays on passes thrown under duress.

How will the Cardinals pass defense hold up? The Packers have a lot of weapons in quarterback Aaron Rodgers, a solid corps of receivers and running back Ryan Grant. The Cardinals must pressure Rodgers with a variety of blitzes. In last week's game, Packers receivers dominated Arizona's cornerbacks. It's hard to say if that means anything since the Cardinals played backups most of the day.

It's not a given that you can beat Warner with the blitz. He's quick to read defenses and quick to throw. He can anticipate where the open man is, and his throws are deadly accurate. The key to pressuring him is inside blitzes, make him aware that it's coming at him. Because Warner doesn't have much mobility, he can't buy much extra time. The Packers have to get a lot of hits on him and disrupt his timing with receivers.

Charles Woodson's strength has been roaming the middle of the field in nickel situations and offering run support or blitz help. He's a big reason the run defense is as good as it has been. On Sunday, however, he must devote his time to covering Arizona wide receiver Larry Fitzgerald. The best candidate to replace Woodson as the rover is linebacker Brandon Chillar. He can cover tight ends and backs, is a good blitzer and is big enough to have some impact in the running game.

The Packers like to play bump-and-run coverage with Woodson, and Larry Fitzgerald has improved at escaping jams in recent years. The Cardinals need to get Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin, if able to play through a high ankle sprain and a sprained knee, matched up with the Packers' nickel and dime backs. If that happens, the Cardinals will make some big plays.

The Cardinals must keep the Packers' outside rushers honest and make them play the run. The Cardinals' running game improved greatly over the last half of the season, and Beanie Wells gives them a big-play threat they've lacked for years.

When they've struggled this season, the Cardinals have committed turnovers in the first half against Indianapolis, Carolina and San Francisco. The running backs, Tim Hightower and Wells, have ended promising drives with fumbles early in games. The Cardinals must be productive on offense early, because the Packers are going to score some points.

The Packers won seven of their last eight games, and a case could be made that they are playing as well as any team in the NFC. The Cardinals enter the playoffs this year with much more confidence than last season, when they caught fire in the postseason. The club seems quietly confident it can have success against Green Bay, although they failed to prove that in two games this year, the preseason and the season finale. Take Packers.

My record against the spread:

Last week: 9-7.

Season: 121-119.

Philadelphia at Dallas (-2.5)

Last week: Eagles beat Broncos 30-27; Cowboys beat Redskins 17-0.

Does it really get any better than this? Philadelphia on the road in Dallas with the NFC East title at stake.

Last year, with Dallas needing a victory in the final game to get into the playoffs, the Eagles embarrassed the Cowboys 44-6. Now, the Cowboys have an opportunity to exact revenge.

One could make the case that this game involves two of the NFC's three hottest teams, with Green Bay being the third. Philadelphia, which typically peaks this time of the year, has won six consecutive games since losing to Dallas in November. The Cowboys gave New Orleans its first loss and shut out Washington last week.

The Eagles' quick-strike offense gives them the ability to score from anywhere on the field. Andy Reid is a master at creating mismatches and confusion whether with misdirection or bunch formations. He's a daring play-caller -- sometimes he takes too many risks -- and it's Donovan McNabb's ability to take advantage of one or two of the opportunities created by Reid that are often the difference.

But the Cowboys are playing terrific team defense. The Giants are the only team to score more than 21 points against Dallas this season, and when Dallas faced Philadelphia earlier this season, the Cowboys held Philadelphia below its season averages in points and yards.

The Cowboys' blitz has come alive in the past two weeks, with Dallas totaling three sacks in each of its past three games. Outside LBs Anthony Spencer and DeMarcus Ware have combined for five sacks in the past four games. Spencer and Ware are fast off the edges and threaten to disrupt McNabb's timing, especially on five-step drops, if they're not picked up.

Thanks to their explosive offense, the Eagles have outscored opponents 99-50 in the first half during their six-game win streak. If they can jump on Dallas early and set the pace in a game that will decide the NFC East champion, it'll quiet the home crowd and put all the pressure on the Cowboys. Pressure usually leads to pressing, which often results in mistakes.

In the biggest game of the season, the Eagles need to get the ball to their best playmaker. WR DeSean Jackson has receiving touchdowns in five straight games, one shy of tying a club record. He only had two receptions for 29 yards against Dallas in the first matchup -- his third-fewest receiving yards of the season. The Eagles can't let the Cowboys take Jackson out of the game and expect to win.

Indeed, with all due respect to Cowboy WR Miles Austin, Jackson is the best big-play threat in the league. He's averaging 18.9 yards per catch and has scored nine touchdowns. He has 17 receptions of 20 yards or more and 10 of more than 40. The Eagles do a good job of creating mismatches with him, and he has so much speed that he just once he has a step on his opponent, he's gone. He caught only two passes for 29 yards in the first meeting between these teams, which is one reason the Eagles scored just 16 points. The Cowboys won't be afraid to double him because they trust CBs Mike Jenkins and Terrence Newman in one-on-one situations.

C Jamaal Jackson, who had started 71 consecutive games at center for the Eagles, is out for the season. That means Nick Cole, who had been the left guard, will move to center. This could be disastrous, because he'll make his debut against Jay Ratliff, one of the league's best nose guards. Cole must handle Ratliff's quickness to keep him from being a disruptive force up the middle and send McNabb scrambling into the arms of Ware or Spencer. Cole will also be responsible for make the protection calls and other adjustments critical to the offense functioning effectively.

Earlier this season, the Cowboys' owned short-yardage situations, especially with Marion Barber carrying the ball. They converted 10 of 11. But they've struggled lately in those situations. Two weeks ago, Barber was stopped three times from the one by San Diego. Last week against the Redskins, the Cowboys failed to convert twice on third-and-1 and once on fourth-and-1. The blame has been equally dispersed between Barber, the offensive line and offensive coordinator Jason Garrett.

The Cowboys are feeling better about themselves than at any other point of the season. Also, the pressure of making the playoffs is off. They're home and playing a team that humiliated them last season. They have every reason to make a statement. For once, the wine-and-cheese crowd at Cowboys Stadium will be hyped from the opening kickoff. This will have a playoff feel to it. Take Cowboys.

Kansas City at Denver (-12.5)

Last week: Chiefs lost to Bengals 17-10; Broncos lost to Eagles 30-27.

The Broncos still have playoff hopes, even after they gave away control of their own destiny with three straight losses. Although there are scenarios in which the Broncos get in with a loss, the most realistic chance they have is to win and get some help. Missing the playoffs after starting 6-0, with a 3 1/2-game lead in the AFC West, would make for a very long offseason.

The Broncos also need a win to feel good about making progress this season. Last year, an 8-8 record with a historic collapse cost Mike Shanahan his job. The Broncos are 2-7 since their great start, and an 8-8 finish would be very unsatisfying to a new regime. A 9-7 season without a playoff berth wouldn't be ideal, but it would be better than finishing on a four-game losing streak.

The Chiefs have nothing tangible to play for, but going into the offseason with a win and crushing their division rival's playoff hopes would be a nice way to send off a poor season. Kansas City did not win in December. One of the Chiefs' losses in that stretch was an uncompetitive 44-13 loss to the Broncos. Getting some payback for that loss has to be on their minds.

The Broncos committed three turnovers at Kansas City in Week 13. The Chiefs converted those turnovers into 10 of their 13 points. Kansas City won't be able to move the ball consistently against Denver's strong defense Sunday, so they'll have to again take advantage if they can force the Broncos into multiple turnovers.

Denver's 245 yards rushing were a key in their blowout win at Arrowhead Stadium. Though the Bengals ran for 144 against the Chiefs last week, Kansas City limited the big plays and made them earn every yard. The Chiefs again might have to commit to stopping the run foremost and thus leave cornerback Brandon Flowers man-to-man against Denver wide receiver Brandon Marshall, but the fiery wide-out is out of Sunday's caper hence alleviating the pressure on the front line.

The Broncos forced Chiefs QB Matt Cassel into his worst game of the season (10-of-29 passing, 84 yards, two interceptions) last time these teams met. The Chiefs can take pressure off Cassel by giving the ball frequently to Jamaal Charles, their best offensive player. While the Broncos have played consistently well against the pass, they have shown weakness at times against a determined running attack.

There are plenty of reasons for the Broncos to come out flat Sunday. There's a good chance even a win won't save their playoff hopes. For the first time all year, the Broncos don't control their own destiny and it will be Coach Josh McDaniels' job to make sure Denver focuses on what it can control, which is winning.

In each of the last three games, the Broncos had a chance to pull out a late win but let the game slip away. The team had a physical training camp, and while nobody has said that is a reason for the late-season slide, it could be a factor. No matter the reason, the Broncos have to make a game-winning play in the fourth quarter if the situation arises.

After Denver blew a game at home against the Raiders two weeks ago, it's tough to completely discount the chance that the Chiefs will play a spoiler role. Still, the Broncos should be hungry and are clearly better than Kansas City. They showed that during a blowout win at Arrowhead Stadium less than a month ago, when they ran the ball at will and completely stifled the Chiefs' offense. If Denver can stay focused and not let the Chiefs stick around early, the Broncos should get a much-needed victory but without Marshall, the Chiefs keep it close. Take points and Chiefs.

Pittsburgh at Miami (PK)

Last week: Steelers beat Ravens 23-20; Dolphins lost to Texans 27-20.

The Dolphins and the Steelers will both need plenty of help to return to the postseason -- but neither team has been mathematically eliminated just yet. In order to pick up an AFC Wildcard berth, the first part of the equation for each team is simple: They need to win this game. From there, the Dolphins need losses from the Jets, the Ravens, the Texans and the Jaguars. And the Steelers will be rooting for a combination of losses from the Texans and the Jets, the Texans and the Ravens or the Ravens, the Jets and the Broncos. But for the sake of limiting confusion, it's still much simpler: The only way either team will have a chance begins with a win Sunday.

Safety Troy Polamalu has already been forced to miss 10 games in an injury-riddled season. It remains to be seen whether he'll also miss his 11th. Last week, it appeared Polamalu's knee was nearly to the point when he could play against the Ravens, but the team decided to keep him sidelined yet again. Whether the team decides to play him against the Dolphins remains to be seen. If they do, it will be interesting to see whether Polamalu can shake the rust of his time away quickly enough to make an impact. The Dolphins surely hope not, since their passing game isn't exactly on fire right now to begin with.

The Dolphins are still trying to maintain motivation based on the possibility that they could still make the playoffs. But with four other teams needing to lose Sunday, it's not exactly a prospect that's providing a great deal of inspiration. The Dolphins should still have plenty of reason to be motivated, if not only because of the future of the organization. There are many young players -- guys who are expected to be impact players on this team for years to come -- who need as much valuable game experience as they can get. So Sunday will be an important day for quarterback Chad Henne, rookie cornerbacks Vontae Davis and Sean Smith, nose tackle Paul Soliai, defensive end Randy Starks and a number of other players who want to show they belong on the field this year as well as next year.

Even without Ronnie Brown, the Dolphins have continued to feature one of the best rush offenses in the league behind Ricky Williams. That will be a problem for the Steelers, whose rush defense has faltered. They have allowed 171 and 175 yards rushing in two of the past three games, the highest totals they have yielded this season.

The Steelers have put even more emphasis on throwing the past couple of weeks, which is a byproduct of having a suspect defense that has trouble protecting leads. The Dolphins have allowed 16 pass plays of 40 yards or longer (tied for the league high) and 54 plays of 20 yards or more (tied for third most in the league). Expect the pass-happy trend to continue.

Only a month ago, the Dolphins were having significant issues closing out games, as evidenced by the fact they'd already allowed more points in the fourth quarter than any team in franchise history. Now, over the past two weeks at least, they're having trouble getting started. A week ago, the Dolphins got behind 27-0 against Houston before staging a comeback the fell short. If Miami wants to have a chance against the Steelers, it will have to come out of the gate with intensity and purpose.

For those who doubt inside linebacker Channing Crowder's impact, consider what happened Sunday when he suffered a foot injury during the first defensive series. Miami's run defense crumbled and the communication within the unit was poor. Crowder is a field general for the defense, and considering he won't be able to play Sunday against the Steelers, it's time for somebody else to take on the role. Reggie Torbor will take Crowder's place at inside linebacker, but Akin Ayodele likely will be the voice of the defense. This shapes up as another tough day for Miami's run defense.

The Dolphins started fast early in the season. Now, they're coming out completely flat. Whatever the problem is, Miami is scrambling to find its identity as the final game approaches. Even with a win Sunday, the Dolphins won't likely make the playoffs because of all the help they need. It would still be nice for the sake of something to build on to put together a complete game. If the Dolphins can do that, it would at least prove they are capable of the feat, something that hasn't been the case often this season. .

It's hard to imagine either of these teams making the playoffs, considering how much help both squads will need even if they win. But the Dolphins and the Steelers are two gritty teams that surely won't quit, which should still make this a fun battle to watch regardless of its implications. However, with linebacker Channing Crowder out of this game with a foot injury, the Dolphins' defense will be in a situation that's going to cause some severe difficulties slowing down the Steelers' offense. At full strength, this game could easily go either way. Without Crowder, the Steelers get the edge. Take Steelers.

NY Giants at Minnesota (-8.5)

Last week: Giants lost to Panthers 41-9; Vikings lost to Bears 36-30.

The Vikings, losers of three of their past four games, are playing their worst football of the season. They have one last chance during the regular season to regain some momentum.

They're coming off back-to-back losses to teams with losing records, and after the 36-30 overtime setback at Chicago, the only good news for them is that their next game is at home. The Vikings are 7-0 at home this season and are matched up with a New York Giants team that was eliminated from the playoffs last week.

The Giants might not have much motivation for this game, and that could compound their problems on the field. New York is allowing an average of 25.5 points a game, which ranks 28th in the NFL. That includes an embarrassing 41-9 loss at home last week to Carolina.

Playing the Giants next might be just what the Vikings need to get back on track before the playoffs start.

Carolina's Jonathan Stewart was able to run for 206 yards against the Giants, and that could be a sign of things to come for Vikings running back Adrian Peterson. He's gone six consecutive games without topping 100 yards, the longest streak of his career. It's important to get Peterson's confidence re-established after he fumbled in overtime against Chicago and the Bears scored on the next play to send Minnesota home with a loss.

The Giants were so embarrassed following their 41-9 loss to the Panthers in their final game at Giants Stadium that Tom Coughlin and Eli Manning made public apologies to the fans. The Giants haven't closed out a season playing a game out of playoff contention since the end of the 2004 season and it remains to be seen how much fight and passion they will have as they near the end of a highly-disappointing year with a road game against a motivated, playoff-bound opponent.

Consistent pressure on the quarterback has been an ongoing problem for the Giants, who have only 32 sacks this season. After griping about his playing time vs. the Panthers, figure DE Osi Umenyiora gets some extra time on the field and if he does he will try to use his speed rush to get around LT Bryant McKinnie, who is coming off rough outings against Julius Peppers and also against the Bears. Umenyiora leads the Giants with seven sacks and desperately wants a strong finish to a very frustrating season.

The Giants' injury-ridden and talent-starved secondary has been ravaged for big plays all season and the Vikings can definitely add to those woes with Sidney Rice and rookie Percy Harvin. It looks as if CBs Corey Webster (knee) and Aaron Ross (hamstring) will again be sidelined, giving the Vikings a huge advantage against undersized reserve corners Kevin Dockery and Bruce Johnson. For the Giants to have a chance, second-year CB Terrell Thomas — one of the more consistent players for the Giants but coming off a poor game vs. Carolina — is going to have to play at an exceptionally high level.

The Vikings have tried to force feed Adrian Peterson the ball lately, and it hasn't worked. He's been stuffed by opposing defenses who are focused on stopping him. That trend continued against Chicago in the first half. But the Vikings' offense came to life when Brett Favre got the passing game going, which opened room for Peterson on the ground. They need to continue throwing the ball to loosen up defenses and find room for Peterson to run.

Struggling CB Antoine Winfield isn't 100 percent healthy, and that's a major problem moving forward with the playoffs around the corner. The Vikings might have to consider resting him against the Giants. That could potentially give him two weeks to rest if the Vikings secure a first-round playoff bye. Then he could come back and perform at the level before he missed six games with a fractured right foot. Right now, Winfield is a liability, as he's showed the past two weeks, getting torched by Carolina's Steve Smith and then giving up the game-winning TD to Chicago's Devin Aromashodu.

When the Vikings were at their best en route to a 10-1 start this season, they won the battles up front on the offensive and defensive lines. That's not happening any more. Teams are sending extra help against DE Jared Allen, minimizing his pressure on quarterbacks. And the offensive line isn't performing well, giving up seven sacks in the past two games, while not providing many holes for Peterson. That has to change.

The Vikings have one game left in the regular season to try to fix their problems that have been exposed in recent weeks. And if they can't figure out how to avoid slow starts on offense early in games, cut down on the big plays allowed by the defense, and be more physical along the offensive line, their postseason run could be limited to one game.

The Giants have a chance to play the spoiler role, but with their playoff hopes dead, there's reason to question whether they're up to the task. Look for the Vikings to bounce back at home in the Metrodome, where their defense plays so much better. They win but Giants cover. Take points and Giants.

Cincinnati at NY Jets (-9.5)

Last week: Bengals beat Chiefs 17-10; Jets beat Colts 29-15.

Can the Jets get into the playoffs? All they need is a victory, and for the second straight week, they are facing a team that is expected to pull its starters before the game is over. If the Jets can beat the Bengals, they will make the playoffs for the fifth time in the last nine seasons, and this is the seventh time this decade in which they have had a playoff spot on the line on the regular season's final Sunday.
 
How will the Bengals play it? A la Indianapolis coach Jim Caldwell last week, Cincinnati coach Marvin Lewis played it coy Monday about who will play and for how long, admitting that results earlier in the day could affect his mindset. The AFC North champion Bengals are guaranteed a home playoff game no matter what happens, but QB Carson Palmer indicated Monday he thinks the offense needs to be sharper and he wants to play to get ready for the playoffs.
 
It's the final game at Giants Stadium. No, it's never been as storied as, say, Soldier Field or Lambeau Field, but it did serve as home to the Giants for 34 seasons and to the Jets for 26. The Giants didn't exactly finish their tenure well with an embarrassing loss to Carolina, so it's up to the Jets to give their home fans something to celebrate in the final game there.

This game has a different feel because the Bengals have already been crowned AFC North champs and the Jets need a win to get in the playoffs. The Bengals are a physically, mentally and emotionally drained squad forced to fight through the Dec. 17 death of wide receiver Chris Henry. The offense won't reveal anything exotic because the Bengals could wind up hosting the Jets on Wild Card Weekend. Don't be surprised if Lewis pulls some of his key starters in the third quarter. As much as the Bengals would like to have momentum going into the playoffs, they need a break and need to get fresh for the postseason.

The Bengals are a running team that relies on defense, but there are signs the passing game is slowly coming to life. Palmer continues to work to get wide receivers Laveranues Coles, Andre Caldwell and Quan Cosby more involved to take the heat off Chad Ochocinco. Backup running back Larry Johnson should get more carries because it's critical for starter Cedric Benson to be at the top of his game once the playoffs begin.

If the Bengals truly want to win the game, they need to match the physicality of the Jets, who will throw every kind of stunt and blitz scheme at them. The Bengals have been good at fighting through adversity and staying calm. That kind of maturity has served them well through a turbulent, roller-coaster season.

The numbers don't lie. In games in which they have more takeaways than their opponents, the Jets are 7-0, including their win over the tanking Indianapolis Colts on Sunday. And they are 0-5 in games in which they have more giveaways. QB Mark Sanchez must play under control, as he did against Indy, when he erred on the side of caution instead of throwing some passes where they could've been picked off.
 
Say this about the Jets in their tainted win over the Colts--they continued to play hard, if not harder, when Indianapolis rested its offensive starters in the third quarter. Perhaps they did that because they knew they had the advantage at that point. Whatever the case, they need to bring it for four quarters even if the Bengals do not.

Coach Rex Ryan has pushed the right motivational buttons with this team lately, and must do so again Sunday. Most pundits are expecting potentially motivation-less Cincinnati to be a no-show, much as Indianapolis was in the last 20 minutes against the Jets, and are thus conceding the Jets a playoff spot before the opening coin toss.

The Jets cannot fall into that mindset, because Cincy backup QB J.T. O'Sullivan (nine NFL TD passes, 13 picks) at least has some experience, unlike Indy's deer-in-the-headlights rookie Curtis Painter. A healthy dose of Thomas Jones runs and mistake-free play by Sanchez gives the Jets the win, but barely. Take points and Bengals.

Indianapolis at Buffalo (-8.5)

Last week: Colts lost to Jets 29-15; Bills lost to Falcons 31-3.

Colts Coach Jim Caldwell took a lot of heat from fans and media for pulling his starters so early last week and costing the team a chance at a perfect season. It's doubtful he will be swayed by public opinion on Sunday, especially with nothing to play for and the fear of losing important players to injury.

If the Colts try just a little bit, they could still win this game because the Bills are ready for the season to be over. But it's doubtful the Colts will care about the outcome. Beating the Colts at full strength would be a whole lot more meaningful than beating a bunch of backups, but the Bills will take a win any way they can get it. Take points and Colts.

New Orleans at Carolina (-8.5)

Last week: Saints lost to Buccaneers 20-17; Panthers beat Giants 41-9.

This game may come down to how much the Saints want to win. They've played some sloppy games in losing to Dallas and Tampa Bay, and need to sharpen the blade before heading into an off week and then the divisional playoffs.

The Panthers present a playoff-caliber defense, so it makes sense to let Brees and Co. play some, if only to try to regain some of their previous polish. Defensively, the Saints might not see a rushing attack like this in the playoffs, and the Panthers haven't been taking many chances in the air. Take Panthers.

Jacksonville at Cleveland (-1.5)

Last week: Jaguars lost to Patriots 35-7; Browns beat Raiders 23-9.

The Jaguars and Browns aren't so far apart in the quality of their seasons. The Jaguars have won three more games, but they are slumping. The Browns have played a substantially stronger schedule, and they have won three straight games in December for the first time since 1987.

The Jaguars looked like a mess last week against the Patriots. The Browns ended a 12-game losing streak to their rival, Pittsburgh, and have been on a high ever since. The Jaguars still have an outside chance at the playoffs, but the Browns are at home, playing to keep the Mangini regime intact. The momentum is on Cleveland's side, big-time but the Jags have much more on the line. Take Jaguars.

Chicago at Detroit (+2.5)

Last week: Bears beat Vikings 36-30; Lions lost to 49ers 20-6.

Regardless of who plays quarterback, the Lions can't find a way to score with any consistency, and that's not going to change in the season's final week. The offensive line can't get it together, and the team doesn't have any weapons other than Johnson.

The Bears have to play this smart and not take risks trying to win the game; all they have to do is stay out of the Lions' way and allow them to find a way to lose it. It might take a while, but Detroit will eventually self-destruct. Take Bears.

New England at Houston (-7.5)

Last week: Patriots beat Jaguars 35-7; Texans beat Dolphins 27-20.

If Belichick rests players like Brady, Moss and Welker, the Texans should win handily. If not, it could be close. The Texans haven't lost by more than eight points since the opening game.

Their offense has been able to move the ball against everybody, and their defense has been outstanding against the run. This game means much more to the Texans than the Patriots. Take Texans.

San Francisco at St-Louis (+6.5)

Last week: 49ers beat Lions 20-6; Rams lost Cardinals 31-10.

The Rams have beaten one team all year, when they dropped the Detroit Lions in Week 8. They have not scored over 20 points since Week 10 and they have allowed 30 points or more six times this season.

With a win, the 49ers will reach the .500 mark but when you look at their past 15 games, they have really been blown out one time (45-10 against the Falcons). The first encounter between these two was a 35-6 thrashing by the Niners. Look for San Francisco to do the same. Take 49ers.

Atlanta at Tampa Bay (+1.5)

Last week: Falcons beat Bills 31-3; Buccaneers beat Saints 20-17.

The Bucs and Falcons have nothing but pride and jobs to play for now, but this game is still worth a look because it offers even casual fans the chance to watch two of the game's most promising young quarterbacks.

The Bucs are on a roll but they're not even sure themselves if they're just hot or if they've really turned the corner; how about neither. Take Falcons.

Green Bay at Arizona (-2.5)

Last week: Packers beat Seahawks 48-10; Cardinals beat Rams 31-10.

It's hard to predict this one because the clubs might face each other the following week. That changes personnel and game-planning decisions. But the Cardinals are at home and the Packers have less to play for. Coach Mike McCarthy likely will hold some things back. The Cardinals starters will play enough to stay in rhythm. Take Cardinals.

Baltimore at Oakland (+10.5)

Last week: Ravens lost to Steelers 23-20; Raiders lost to Browns 23-9.

The Ravens have far more to gain with a victory than the Raiders, a team to which they are superior offensively and defensively. The Raiders have shown that they can beat some of the league's top-tier teams -- they have victories over the Eagles, Bengals, Broncos and Steelers -- but upsetting a team on the verge of a playoff berth is too much to ask for a Raiders team fresh from a lopsided loss to the Cleveland Browns.

The Ravens will jump to early lead, milk the clock behind the running of Ray Rice and rely upon their defense to keep the Raiders from mounting a comeback. Take Ravens.

Washington at San Diego (-3.5)

Last week: Redskins lost to Cowboys 17-0; Chargers beat Titans 42-17.

The Chargers coaches and players on the field will be trying to win, but their main hope will be to get out of Sunday with everyone healthy and having gotten some good experience. Thing is, the Chargers have played so many people and those people have played so well, they are capable of handling the Redskins.

Washington has lost five of six, but it won at Oakland, took New Orleans to overtime and beat Denver in the final half of the season. Nevertheless, take Chargers.

Tennessee at Seattle (+4.5)

Last week: Titans lost to Chargers 42-17; Seahawks lost to Packers 48-10.

Tennessee is the only team in the league that has yet to play at Qwest Field, which is considered one of the loudest stadiums in the league. A lot of the noise will be directed at the Seahawks this week, though. Seattle has lost three in a row by a combined 106-24.

The Titans are 7-2 since making Young their starting QB. Only two teams have better records in that time: the Chargers (9-0) and the Colts (8-1). The Titans will continue their roll. Take Titans.

My upset of the week: Chargers (+2.5) at Titans.

My no-brainer of the week: Cowboys (-6.5) at Redskins.

My record against the spread:

Last week: 8-8.

Season: 112-112.

San Diego at Tennessee (-2.5)

Last week: Chargers beat Bengals 27-24; Titans beat Dolphins 27-24.

The Chargers clinched the AFC West title in Week 15, but are seeking the second seed in AFC and a first-round playoff bye. The Titans, meanwhile, are fighting for stay alive in the AFC wild-card race. At 7-7, they must win out, and even then they would need help. They would make history if they can do it -- no team has rallied from a 0-6 start to make the playoffs. The Titans have won seven-of-eight to give themselves a shot.

Everyone is been talking about the undefeated Colts in the AFC, but out West the Chargers have become one of the NFL's best teams without much notice. Are they for real? Can they be a formidable foe for the Colts in the playoffs? Their game against the Titans should at least provide answers. The Chargers have been a real nemesis for the Titans over the years -- they've won the past six games in the series -- and they've also been trouble for the Colts. If they can stay on a roll, they're a team everyone should worry about.

The Titans' biggest threat, RB Chris Johnson, is averaging 123.6 yards a game rushing and is also Tennessee's leading receiver with 44 receptions for 446 yards. The Chargers have trouble with fast, shifty receivers, and there is no one faster at the position than Johnson. The Chargers did a great job stymieing the Bengals' running game at times, but a team doesn't get away with breakdowns against Johnson.

Johnson is the NFL's most dangerous back, with an NFL record three 85-yard touchdown runs in 2009 alone. He's averaging 5.7 yards per carry, and been a threat every time he's touch the football. But teams have found a way to slow down Johnson in the second half at least -- he ran for 33 yards on 15 carries in the second half against Miami as the Dolphins nearly rallied to win. The Chargers will try and make things difficult for Johnson throughout.

Over the past seven games, opponents have made 27 trips inside the Chargers' 20-yard line. They have scored 12 touchdowns, kicked 10 field goals, fumbled three times and gone out on downs twice. The Chargers have won games by one, three, seven (twice) and eight points in that span. So red zone stops have played a big part in their success.

The Titans have allowed six 300-yard passers this season, and are 31st in the NFL in pass defense, allowing 265.1 yards per game. Plenty of good quarterbacks have lit them up. Well, Chargers quarterback Philip Rivers is one of the NFL's hottest, with 3,891 passing yards and a 25-to-9 touchdown-to-interception total. The Titans must be strong in the secondary, and that starts with cornerback Nick Harper, who has struggled on his side.

Vince Young is making good decisions and throwing the ball accurately. In eight starts he has thrown four interceptions and 10 touchdowns, and he's not forcing the ball into double coverage. It's a key example of how Young has improved, and he must keep it up against the Chargers, who have 12 interceptions. With the Chargers putting an emphasis on slowing Johnson, Young must make big throws and avoid mistakes.

The Titans have been on a roll in winning seven of their past eight games. Johnson has led the way, and his success has also taken pressure off Young. Even with starting linebackers Keith Bulluck and David Thornton out against the Chargers, the Titans will keep the game close. And a team that's found a way to win in the second half of the season will do so again, and stay alive for one more week. Take Chargers.

Houston at Miami (-2.5)

Last week: Texans beat Rams 16-13; Dolphins lost to Titans 27-24.

The Texans offense took the week off last week in St. Louis and they will get schooled if they bring the same performance this week in Miami. The Texans do have a very explosive passing game but their running game has disappeared. Whether it's Ryan Moats, Chris Brown or Arian Foster, the Texans don't have a running game to lean on, which will make it tough on the road.

For Miami, they continue to improve on a weekly basis. Last week, turnovers cost them dearly as they dug took deep of a hole against a Tennessee Titans. The Dolphins should have a big edge on the line of scrimmage as the Texans have no pass rush. The Dolphins should be able to run the ball well with Ricky Williams, which will help this offense move the ball and score points.

The Texans defense has been a microcosm of the team: some weeks they show up and other weeks they don't. They only have 25 sacks on the year and they have given up 14 rushes of 20 yards or longer, which is fourth-most in the NFL. They are going up against one of the best offenses in the NFL.

Meanwhile, the Dolphins defense is ranked in the middle of the pack and they will get tested by a good passing game this week. The good news is that they have 40 sacks this year, which is the second most in the league. They should be able to get to Matt Schaub this week and everyone knows that he's not only mistake-prone, but also injury-prone.

The Texans are a terrible rushing team, averaging just 88.7 yards per game on the ground and playing a second consecutive road game is not the cure. The Dolphins have a very good pass rush and they'll tee off on the pass-oriented Texans.

On offense, the Dolphins will dominate the line of scrimmage and do enough to control the ball and get the important win. Take Dolphins.

Denver at Philadelphia (-6.5)

Last week: Broncos lost to Raiders 20-19; Eagles beat 49ers 27-13.

The Broncos are at 8-6 and have a horde of teams behind them at 7-7, which means wins in the last two weeks are critical. If they win out, they are going to the playoffs but if they lose one, then we start opening the tome of tiebreakers.

For Philadelphia, they are going to the playoffs – it's just a matter of which seed they will be. If they keep on winning, they'll be the No. 3 seed and have home field advantage at least in the first round. If not, the Eagles could fall as far as sixth and have to travel on the road through the entire playoffs.

The Broncos offense completely disappeared last week at home to Oakland, which is an ominous sign now that they are on the road in Philadelphia. Last week against Oakland, eight of their 12 drives lasted five plays or less, the running game produced 3.3 yards per carry and quarterback Kyle Orton was just 19-of-34 passing. Clearly, Orton is not the answer and if it wasn't evident last week, it will be in a tough road game in Philadelphia.

Meanwhile, the Eagles offense is scolding hot right now. Philly has scored at least 23 points in six straight games and they have averaged 30 points per game in that stretch. Very quietly, the offense has led them to five straight wins and the Donovan McNabb to DeSean Jackson combo is about as hot as it gets right. Considering what the Raiders second, third and fourth string quarterbacks did to Denver last week, the Eagles should be salivating.

Denver fans have to be wondering what has happened to Ted Nolan's defense. The unit that barely gave up in second half points in their first six games has been picked apart in recent weeks. Last week, they allowed Charlie Frye/JaMarcus Russell/J.P. Losman – the Raiders used all three quarterbacks on the final drive – to march down the field and score a game-winning touchdown. The pass rush is non-existent, the run defense was carved up for 241 rushing yards and the secondary failed at the most critical time. The only thing going for them is that the Eagles don't run the ball so much so they may not expose the run defense as much as the Raiders did last week.

Philadelphia defense has been playing much better as of late and they should like their chances this week. They have the secondary to blanket Brandon Marshall and clearly for Denver, there are virtually no other threats in the passing game. Since their running game has also been off, the Eagles should have plenty of opportunity to tee off on Kyle Orton with their blitzes. He's very mistake-prone when he is pressured.

Common sense suggests that the Broncos play better this week than they did last week but they just aren't a very good team overall. The Broncos are very limited on offense when they can't run the ball, they don't have secondary options other than Brandon Marshall and the defense is starting to crack.

Combine that with a matchup against a hot Eagles squad and you should have a Philly win and cover. Take Eagles.

Baltimore at Pittsburgh (-2.5)

Last week: Ravens beat Bears 31-7; Steelers beat Packers 37-36.

There really is nothing better than a Steelers-Ravens game that really means something, and this one does for both teams. The rivalry is intense enough because both teams pride themselves on tough, aggressive defense, even though the Steelers have shown little of that in the second half of the season.

This time, there are playoff implications as well. A loss will all but eliminate the Steelers from wild-card contention. The Ravens, who won the first meeting in overtime, can stay in the hunt for the AFC North title with a win, even though the Bengals own the tiebreaker.

The Ravens' offense suddenly has come alive, scoring 79 points in the past two games. That could spell trouble for a Steelers defense that has not been as stout against the run and has really struggled against the pass. The corners are playing soft because they're afraid to make a mistake, the safeties can't stop deep pass plays down the middle, and the defense overall hasn't had an interception in the past six games.

The Ravens have lost their past three games in Heinz Field and, unlike the first meeting, will have to contend with Ben Roethlisberger. He did not play in the Nov. 29 game in Baltimore because of post-concussion symptoms.

The Ravens have to take chances downfield. Pittsburgh's cornerbacks have been awful this season, incapable of defending long passes. Look for them to play far off the ball, and look for the Ravens to take advantage of that. If second-year quarterback Joe Flacco is accurate, the Ravens could have a lot of passing yards.

Pittsburgh's defense has been susceptible at giving up big plays in the middle of the field, something they did not allow last season. They have given up nine passes of 40 yards or longer, seven more than last season, and the biggest culprits are safeties Ryan Clark and Tyrone Carter.

After throwing for a team-record 503 yards and three TDs against the Packers, Ben Roethlisberger might have to do more of the same against the Ravens. The Steelers defense has allowed 21 or more points in the fourth quarter three times this season, forcing the offense to strike quickly through the air.

The Steelers have fared better against teams with winning records than those with losing records. They have lost to the Bears, Chiefs, Raiders and Browns, but have victories over the Chargers, Vikings, Broncos and Packers. There is no question they play to their competition, which might bode well against the Ravens.

They lost the first meeting with Baltimore because Roethlisberger was out and Dennis Dixon was in at QB. If the Steelers play with passion and purpose Sunday, they'll have a chance. But their defense has let them down all year; if Roethlisberger can't bail them out again, they're done. Take Ravens.

NY Jets at Indianapolis (-5.5)

Last week: Jets lost to Falcons 10-7; Colts beat Jaguars 35-31.

The pursuit of perfection continues. But for the Colts to become just the second team in NFL history to open a season 15-0, it might require significant contributions from several backups.

 Coach Jim Caldwell has been vague regarding playing time for his starters, which could be an indication QB Peyton Manning, wide receiver Reggie Wayne, running back Joseph Addai, tight end Dallas Clark, defensive ends Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis and other selected front-line players might not play to the finish Sunday. The goal remains being healthy for a deep run into the postseason, not 16-0.  

A couple of players are nearing individual milestones, and don't be surprised if the coaches do whatever possible -- and within the flow of the game -- to make them happen. Clark needs 11 receptions to become just the second tight end in NFL history with at least 100 catches. Wayne needs eight catches for his second 100-catch season. Manning is a history buff and understands the importance of certain achievements. If possible, he'll aid Clark and Wayne.

The Jets sustained a crippling blow in last week's home loss to Atlanta, but they remain in contention for a wild-card playoff berth. But it hinges on a win over the Colts. Rookie QB Mark Sanchez has been erratic, but the Jets' defense is one of the league's best. The defense might have to carry the day and could feast on Colts rookie QB Curtis Painter if he plays extensively in place of Manning.

Once again, after throwing three picks against Atlanta, Sanchez told reporters he must be smarter with the ball. But he has said that numerous times this season and hasn't been able to marry those thoughts with his actions. Seventeen of the rookie's 20 interceptions have come in five multiple-interception games, all of which, naturally, the Jets have lost. He must stop forcing throws and locking in on receivers for the Jets a chance to succeed.

First-year head coach Rex Ryan has taking some unusual tacks this season and took another one this week when he told his team the specific results of other games (plus a Jets' victory over Indy) that need to happen to give the Jets a chance to control their own destiny heading into the regular season's final week. The Jets must stay focused, no matter if starters or backups are in the game for the Colts, and no matter what is happening on the out-of-town scoreboard.

Selected starters, including Manning, might be on a play count Sunday. Can they do enough in what might be limited playing time to build a lead? More important, if the starters get in front, can the backups hold the lead? Liberal substitution might be most detrimental on defense. If Freeney and Mathis are joined on the sideline by linebackers Gary Brackett and Clint Session and safety Antoine Bethea, Jets running back Thomas Jones might be too much to handle.

Sanchez has shown promise during his rookie season with 12 touchdown passes. But he's also given too many reminders that he's a rookie with 20 interceptions and assorted bad decisions. Even if Freeney and Mathis see limited playing time, defensive coordinator Larry Coyer must find ways to pressure Sanchez. Backup Eric Foster is coming off a two-sack game at Jacksonville and can be a force whether he lines up at end or tackle. It's more likely the defense will rely on occasional blitzes to confuse Sanchez and force him into bad plays. Second-year pro Philip Wheeler likely will play a lot and could be used in blitzing situations.

If Painter sees his first action of the season, the coaches must keep him out of difficult situations. The game figures to be a low-scoring affair, especially if Manning's playing time is limited, so turnovers and bad decisions will be magnified. Painter has a decent grasp of the offense, but he has yet to run it in a regular season. The Jets' defense is capable of disrupting a veteran QB with linebacker Bart Scott, defensive end Shaun Ellis and the rest. It can totally dominate an inexperienced QB.

Colts players want to play out the string and make a run at 16-0 on the way to a 19-0 season. The Indianapolis coaches are more focused on being as healthy as possible going into postseason. Look for the coaches to win the debate. Even so, the Colts are a resourceful bunch. If Manning and the starters can get off to a good start, the backups are solid enough to hang on, but barely. Take points and Jets.

Dallas at Washington (+6.5)

Last week: Cowboys beat Saints 24-17; Redskins lost to Giants 45-12.

The Redskins were terrible last week in a primetime game that was a deviation from their recent good form. Washington's offensive line is bad and getting worse, especially if right tackle Stephon Heyer can't play because of a knee injury. So the Redskins just aren't in a position to do much offensively against Dallas, and QB Jason Campbell could get pummeled.

The Cowboys don't have a terrific December record, and Washington's defense has enough pride to play much better after last week's disaster. But the Cowboys will control both lines and steadily wear down the Redskins. Take Cowboys.

Seattle at Green Bay (-13.5)

Last week: Seahawks lost to Buccaneers 24-7; Packers lost to Steelers 37-36.

There's no reason to think the Seahawks will come up with a winning performance Sunday, unless the Packers decide not to show up.

After losing to Pittsburgh last week, that's not likely. Expect Rodgers to have his way with the Seahawks' 29th-ranked pass defense and for TE Jermichael Finley to make more big plays. Take Packers.

Oakland at Cleveland (-3.5)

Last week: Raiders beat Broncos 20-19; Browns beat Chiefs 41-34.

Ghosts of Cleveland quarterbacks past will haunt the Dawg Pound, as one former Brown, either Frye or Gradkowski, will start for the Raiders, and with Brady Quinn lost for the final two games, it will put the home's team passing game back in the hands of Derek Anderson.

With that shaky QB situation on both sides, look for plenty more running, as the presidentially named Jerome Harrison and Michael Bush go for big-game encores against two more shoddy run defenses. Take Raiders.

Kansas City at Cincinnati (-13.5)

Last week: Chiefs lost to Browns 41-34; Bengals lost to Chargers 27-24.

Poor weather conditions are in the forecast, so Mother Nature could play the role of equalizer during Kansas City's visit to Paul Brown Stadium in Cincinnati. However, neither sleet nor snow nor freezing temperatures should be able to stop the Bengals from crashing the postseason party for only the second time (2005) since the 1990 season.

The Bengals swept the AFC North (6-0), but they are 0-3 against the AFC West, having lost all three games to the Broncos, Raiders and Chargers in the final minute. The time is now for redemption. Look for the Bengals to get a two-score lead, bleed the clock and tear the ribbons and wrapping paper off an AFC North championship. Take Bengals.

Buffalo at Atlanta (-8.5)

Last week: Bills lost to Patriots 17-10; Falcons beat Jets 10-7.

The Falcons want to reach a 6-2 mark in the Georgia Dome this season. They are 12-3 overall under second-year coach Mike Smith at home and have dropped the last two. They'll want to get the Georgia Dome rocking in the 2009 home finale. Take Falcons.

Carolina at NY Giants (-6.5)

Last week: Panthers beat Vikings 26-7; Giants beat Redskins 45-12.

The Giants' desperation helped fuel a 45-12 rout of the Redskins on Monday; can they exploit it again? Eli Manning is playing at a high level and no doubt Coach John Fox will do everything in his power to disrupt Manning and try to confuse him, no easy task.

Figure the Panthers' Steve Smith will be given extra attention to prevent the big plays that have hurt the Giants in past weeks, meaning there won't be an extra defender in the box to stop Carolina's lethal running game. Fox presumably is coaching for his job; his club likely won't go down without a fight. Take points and Panthers.

Tampa Bay at New Orleans (-14.5)

Last week: Buccaneers beat Seahawks 24-7; Saints lost to Cowboys 24-17.

The Saints will be looking to take out their frustrations on Tampa Bay, which isn't great news for the Buccaneers. New Orleans will be motivated to play its best ball, both to wash out the bad taste from last week and to regain some momentum heading into the playoffs.

The Saints have shown some cracks in the armor in recent weeks, but when they play well, they can pile up points in a hurry but, not by a couple of TD's. Take points and Buccaneers.

Jacksonville at New England (-7.5)

Last week: Jaguars lost to Colts 35-31; Patriots beat Bills 17-10.

This is the Patriots' final home game, a chance for them to finish perfect at Gillette Stadium. To do so, they'll have to avoid some of the mistakes they've made over the previous weeks. There can't be a collective letdown after halftime.

Coach Bill Belichick's team can't repeat the same offensive inconsistency. Brady must be sharper. The Jaguars have had three more days to prepare, and they may be ready with some tricks. But mostly, Jacksonville is just tough and physical. They hand the ball to Jones-Drew and dare opponents to stop it. If the Patriots can buckle their chinstraps, they should be able to handle it but the Jags keep it close. Take points and Jaguars.

St-Louis at Arizona (-13.5)

Last week: Rams lost to Texans 16-13; Cardinals beat Lions 31-24.

Bottom line: If the Cardinals take this game seriously, it should be over early. The Rams just don't match up well against them.

Rams cornerback Ron Bartell this week called Houston's Andre Johnson the best receiver in the league. Larry Fitzgerald might have something to say about that. The Cardinals should win this one by 20 or so, but they have a way of making most games interesting. Take points and Rams.

Detroit at San Francisco (-11.5)

Last week: Lions lost to Cardinals 31-24; 49ers lost to Eagles 27-13.

The 49ers have a rare opportunity as the season draws to a close. With winnable games against Detroit (2-12) and St, Louis (1-13), they have a chance to avoid a losing season for the first time since 2002.

The Lions, meanwhile, want to see progress from young players like Matthew Stafford and, more importantly, would like to build some momentum going into 2010. Look for a slow start from both teams, but for the 49ers to pull away in the second half. Take points and Lions.

Minnesota at Chicago (+6.5)

Last week: Vikings lost to Panthers 26-7; Bears lost to Ravens 31-7.

Expect the Bears to play much better than they did in their first game against the Vikings. One reason: They've already seen Minnesota, which helps. But they're also at their home field and not on artificial turf with the loudspeaker system pumping in extra noise, as many suspect occurs at the Metrodome.

 Chicago will be in the cold and looking to finish strong to help save coach Lovie Smith's job. The Bears have been better at home when it comes to avoiding lopsided games. Take Bears.

My upset of the week: Colts (-6.5) at Jaguars.

My no-brainer of the week: Texans (-9.5) at Rams.

My record against the spread:

Last week: 8-8.

Season: 104-104.

Indianapolis at Jacksonville (+6.5)

Last week: Colts beat Broncos 28-16; Jaguars lost to Dolphins 14-10.

Just when it appeared Jacksonville whiffed on a prime opportunity with its loss to Miami, it turns out the team's playoff hopes are still alive.

The Jags must win their three remaining games to secure a wild-card berth, and with the team announcing a sellout (the first by the franchise all season), and the undefeated division-rival Colts coming to town, the stage appears set for a hotly contested showdown on Thursday night.

The first time the teams met, a failed two-point conversion run by the Jags in the fourth quarter is all that separated the teams in Indianapolis' 14-12 victory in the season opener. It was one of closest games of the Colts' 13-0 run. There's been talk that Indianapolis -- having already clinched home-field advantage for the playoffs -- will sit key players against the Jags. But Colts coach Jim Caldwell dismissed that notion, saying that the health of several key players is the only factor that will limit playing time.

As of Tuesday, Indianapolis had listed 29 players on the injury report including: running back Joseph Addai, offensive tackles Ryan Diem and Tony Ugoh and defensive ends Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis. J

Jacksonville, meanwhile, plays its most important game of the season up to this point hampered by injuries, too. Starting fullback Greg Jones is likely out, while the status for starting cornerback Rashean Mathis, defensive tackle John Henderson and receiver Mike Sims-Walker remain question marks.

The Jaguars are in a must-win mode against a bitter unbeaten division rival. The Jags are 5-2 at Jacksonville Municipal Stadium, but that includes three-point wins over the Chiefs, Rams and Bills. Peyton Manning and the Colts can put Jacksonville's character to the test by jumping out to an early lead and making it fight to keep its wild-card playoff hopes alive.

Running back Maurice Jones-Drew can take over a game with his blend of power and speed. He has eclipsed the 1,000-yard mark for the first time, is averaging 4.5 yards per carry and has 14 rushing TDs. The keys to coordinator Larry Coyer's run defense are swarming to the ball and gang-tackling with linebackers Gary Brackett and Clint Session and safeties Melvin Bullitt and Antoine Bethea. Brackett and Session are undersized but tenacious.

 Jones-Drew is in a slump. The best way to get him out of it is to feed him the ball against the Colts' banged-up front seven. Given the Colts' injury situation, their coaches must decide whether winning one game is as important as remaining healthy for the postseason. If the Jags can pound away with a physical ground game, it will force Indy's coaches to make that decision quickly.

Because of Jacksonville's physical nature and Indianapolis' injury situation, it's likely the Colts at some point will sit key players to rest them for the playoffs. The Jags must take advantage.

The key for Jacksonville is to limit explosive gains in the passing game with mistake-free play in the secondary. In addition, the Jags must keep the game close by limiting Indianapolis' possessions.

The best way to do that is to establish the running game and maintain drives. But that could be tough because it appears that Jones-Drew is finally showing signs of wear.  Manning and the Colts instinctively will try to win the game with their best assets but a loss will without him won't make much of a difference in their mindset. However, it is desperation time for the Jags and they will cover. Take points and Jaguars.

Dallas at New Orleans (-6.5)

Last week: Cowboys lost to Chargers 20-17; Saints beat Falcons 26-23.

Despite recent scares, the Saints are 13-0 -- one of seven teams ever to reach that mark. They must decide soon if they want to go for 16-0 or rest their starters for the playoffs. But entering Saturday's game, they are full speed ahead as they try to clinch the No. 1 seed. They have a 1.5-game lead over the 11-2 Minnesota Vikings, who would win a tie-breaker if it came to that.

The Cowboys, meanwhile, are threatening to sabotage another season with a December collapse after losing their past two games to fall to 8-5. Dallas is now 3-7 after Dec. 1 under Coach Wade Philips, and 18-36 after Dec. 1 since 1996, including a 0-4 mark in the playoffs.

The Saints have struggled in narrow wins at Washington and Atlanta, but having pulled them out in the end only adds to their growing confidence. New Orleans played its best game of the season three weeks ago in a Monday night game in the Superdome against New England, with MVP candidate Drew Brees earning the highest possible passer rating of 158.3. There should be a similar atmosphere in the Dome this week for the Saturday night showdown against Dallas, which could help inspire another dominant performance from Brees and the Saints.

A national TV audience. The quest for an undefeated season. An explosive offensive attack. The Cowboys, more than any other game this season, must make sure they don't get blown out in the first quarter, where the Saints have been productive and the Cowboys have not.

New Orleans has scored 71 points in the first quarter, while allowing 85. Dallas has not scored a first possession touchdown since Thanksgiving Day last year and has totaled just 43 points this season. The Saints' offense revs up in the second and third quarters. If Dallas struggles to stop New Orleans in the first quarter, there's a good chance this game will be over by halftime.

In their most impressive victories, the Saints jumped to early leads, then run out the clock and forced opponents to become one-dimensional. But when needed, they have been able to make up deficits quickly, most notably erasing a 10-point deficit at Washington in the final six minutes two weeks ago.

DeMarcus Ware strained his neck in the fourth quarter against San Diego last week and probably won't play against the Saints. That makes the Cowboys' task of trying to sack Brees more difficult. Ware leads the team with nine sacks. No one else has more than four. And New Orleans has allowed 15 sacks in 433 pass attempts.

The Saints lead the NFL with 35.8 points per game and are within striking distance of the NFL record of 36.8, set by the New England Patriots in 2007. Brees is the NFL's top-rated passer, and he leads the league with 32 touchdown passes. He has an embarrassment of riches at his disposal, with third-year receiver Robert Meachem emerging as a consistent playmaker alongside receivers Marques Colston and Devery Henderson, tight end Jeremy Shockey and tailbacks Reggie Bush, Pierre Thomas and Mike Bell, among others.

The Cowboys have been inconsistent on offense, but when they're on, they can match points with New Orleans' high-powered offense. Dallas comes into this game as the more desperate team, having lost its past two games to threaten its playoff position.

But the Saints play up to the competition in their most high-profile games, especially in the Superdome, where they dominated the Patriots and New York Giants. The Cowboys must play their best game and hope the Saints play a third consecutive flat game to pull off the road upset. However, a customary garbage TD will keep the boys in play.  The Cowboys cover.

Green Bay at Pittsburgh (-1.5)

Last week: Packers beat Bears 21-14; Steelers lost to Browns 13-6.

The Packers are winners of five straight and have the upper hand in getting one of the two NFC wild-card spots. On the other hand, the Steelers have lost five in a row and must win their remaining three games to maintain even a slim chance they could get a wild-card spot at 9-7.

But after losses to the Chiefs, Raiders and Browns, there is some question whether they can win any of their remaining three games, let alone all of them. Beyond that, Sunday's game matches two of the most storied and successful franchises in the NFL. The Packers have never played a regular-season game in Heinz Field and will be making their first appearance in Pittsburgh since 1998.

Despite good numbers, QB Aaron Rodgers hasn't been able to lead the team past the middle of the pack in red-zone efficiency. Some of the blame might rest on coach Mike McCarthy's play-calling. He tends to go with empty backfields and flood the area. McCarthy could isolate TE Jermichael Finley more on the outside or give RB Ryan Grant a chance to finish the drive.

Although three of Pittsburgh's losses during their five-game losing streak came against bottom dwellers, they fared better against teams with a winning record, beating the Chargers, Vikings and Broncos during a five-game winning streak earlier in the season.

The Steelers haven't allowed a 100-yard rusher in 35 consecutive games, including postseason, but they allowed a season-high 171 yards to the Browns. Their streak might be in jeopardy against Ryan Grant, who had 137 yards on 20 carries and scored two touchdowns against the Bears.

The defense installed in Green Bay by defensive coordinator Dom Capers is essentially the same one he installed when he came to the Steelers as defensive coordinator under Bill Cowher in 1992. It will be up to QB Ben Roethlisberger, who was sacked eight times against the Browns, to recognize their blitz tendencies.

For the first time all season, the fight and desire appear to have left the Steelers. That was never more apparent than in their 13-6 loss to the anemic Browns, a game in which they didn't even turn the ball over. Their defense hasn't intercepted a pass in five consecutive games, and their ability to stop the run becomes more suspect each week.

Even one of the top playmakers, OLB James Harrison, the NFL's defensive player of the year in 2008, hasn't had a sack in three games and hasn't forced a fumble -- his specialty -- in eight games. Pittsburgh has lost all its confidence and is having a difficult time doing anything right. The Steelers are an ostentatious team however; pride has always been their utmost priority and they will deliver. Take Steelers.

Cincinnati at San Diego (-6.5)

Last week: Bengals lost to Vikings 30-10; Chargers beat Cowboys 20-17.

The winner will have the inside track on getting the AFC's No.2 seed and accompanying first-week bye and guaranteed home divisional game. The Chargers (10-3) are currently second in the conference, the Bengals (9-4) third. Neither team has clinched their division yet, though the Bengals can win the AFC North with a victory or a Baltimore Ravens loss. The Chargers can clinch the AFC West by winning or tying Cincinnati and having the Denver Broncos tie or by the Broncos losing.

The Chargers' 27.8 points per game is fourth in the NFL, while the Bengals are allowing just 16.7 points a game, tied for second-fewest. The Chargers have scored at least 31 points in five of their past eight games; the Bengals just allowed 30 (to Minnesota) this past Sunday.

Antonio Cromartie and Chad Ochocinco, two of the biggest talkers in the league, will face off at least part of the afternoon. While Ochocinco's production has tapered a bit, he remains a threat and is closing in on another 1,000-yard season. Cromartie is almost impenetrable and quarterbacks are staying away from him. The two attention hounds will likely spend a good portion of the day jawing and could even provide some actual highlights with their play.

In order to upset the Chargers, who have won an NFL-record 16 straight December games, the Bengals must inject some life into a dormant passing game. This is the ideal time to get creative with flea flickers and reverses because the Chargers won't be expecting anything unusual from an offense built around a strong running game. The Bengals responded with victories after their first three losses. If they don't rebound strong after last week's debacle in Minnesota, they'll wave goodbye to a first-round playoff bye.

The Bengals have one thing going for them. All three of their opponents in the AFC North (Baltimore, Cleveland and Pittsburgh) use the same 3-4 defense that the Chargers have installed. The familiarity will be a plus for the Bengals, who should be able to run effectively against San Diego's No. 21 run defense. Staying out of third-and-long situations will allow Cincinnati to move the chains and get in position to score.

The explosive Chargers are heavily armed with dangerous playmakers in QB Philip Rivers, TBs LaDainian Tomlinson and Darren Sproles, TE Antonio Gates and WR Vincent Jackson. Containing the run and applying pressure on Rivers are keys to a victory for the Bengals, who cannot allow the elusive Sproles to break loose for any big punt or kickoff returns.

Bengals cornerbacks Leon Hall and Johnathan Joseph are talented enough to shut down the deep passing game. It's over the middle against the safety-thin Bengals where the Chargers can do the most damage.

The Chargers have allowed their last four opponents to average 5.1 yards per carry. Most of those opponents, however, have not been rushing a lot after halftime because the Chargers are leading by enough to make the opponent one-dimensional. This means the offense needs to score and the defense must make crucial stops and not allow the big running play.

Cincinnati has 28 drives of 10 or more plays, third-most in the NFL. The Bengals rank second in the NFL in both average number of plays on their scoring drives (8.98) and average time of their scoring drives (4:19). The Chargers got Dallas off the field on seven-of-eight third downs last week but have struggled intermittently throughout the season stopping drives when given the opportunity with third-and-longs.

The Bengals' best chance is likely to keep the ball away from Philip Rivers. Thinned by injuries in the secondary and more vulnerable to the pass anyway, the Bengals just might not be able to match up with the Chargers' array of targets. The Chargers are on a roll; playing as well as they have in two years, and are at home. They appear also to have played better against quality opponents than the Bengals. Even if Cincinnati moves the ball, which it probably will, the Chargers are making big plays when necessary and keeping teams from the end zone. Take points and Bengals.

NY Giants at Washington (+2.5)

Last week: Giants lost to Eagles 45-38; Redskins beat Raiders 34-13.

If the fading New York Giants want to stay in playoff contention, they can't afford to slip up against the 4-9 Redskins. New York trails Dallas by one game for second place in the NFC East. More importantly, the Cowboys lead for the second and final wild card spot as well. Green Bay is the only other NFC team in contention for a wild card spot with a winning record, so it could be a two-team race between Dallas and New York for that spot.

Washington has only won two of its last five games, but the Redskins have been competitive in each game. Despite being five games under .500, they've only been outscored by 17 points.

Their last three losses have been by a combined seven points vs. Dallas, Philadelphia and New Orleans. One thing they haven't done yet is beat an NFC East opponent; they've won at least one division game per season since 1993.

An improved offense has made them more competitive.

Offensive Coordinator Sherman Lewis has taken over as a play-caller, but he's received lots of help in the booth and is only responsible for pass plays. It's been the game plans, which Lewis doesn't craft, and the execution by the players -- especially quarterback Jason Campbell -- that has made a difference. He's posted three 100-plus passer rating days in the past five games.

The Redskins are not known as a big-play offense but they have some capability, especially with Santana Moss. The Giants are known as a big play waiting to happen with their suspect defense, which continues to have baffling communication issues this late in the season. The basic concept of players knowing and carrying out their assignments will go a long way in containing a Jason Campbell led Redskins attack that certainly is not overwhelming in any way. The Giants may have to simplify some of their defensive calls in order to achieve this.

A combination of short kickoffs from Lawrence Tynes and short punts from Jeff Feagles too often leave the already-sagging Giants defense with bad field position. Teams regularly get the ball out near the 30-yard line on kickoffs and Feagles is sending the ball out of bounds barely 40 yards downfield. Tynes may have to go with more of his squib and mortar kicks at FedEx Field and hope for fortunate bounces.

The Redskins present problems in that they are solid in stopping the pass with CBs Fred Smoot and Carlos Rogers, although the Giants have had some success in the past targeting the Washington safeties. Still, the Redskins are more vulnerable on the ground and that's where the Giants need to attack, especially if they can take advantage of the aggressiveness of Washington's up-field pass rushers.

New York's OL is no longer considered one of the best. They have not opened running lanes as in the past. Also, the Redskins have applied more pressure thanks to Brian Orakpo and Andre Carter. Too often QB Eli Manning has been comfortable in the pocket vs. them. New York is starting a rookie RT; take advantage.

New York's DL has struggled, but it still has rushers who can hurt Washington's tackles. The Redskins have dropped three straight to New York because of big plays made by the Giants' ends. QB Jason Campbell has been more decisive and quick with his releases, which helps. If that continues, they'll make big plays vs. this secondary.

This will be a difficult game for New York. One reason the Giants have won three straight over Washington is because of their line play. But neither side of the ball is performing as expected. The Redskins' OL remains an issue, but game planning has helped overcome glaring holes.

 The big concern is not allowing big plays downfield. Or, rather, a lot of them. New York will make them considering Washington surrenders them in most games. The key will be the Redskins' ability to pressure Manning and force mistakes. They have been close against good teams. Right now, the Giants aren't a good team but will score enough to cover. Take Giants.

Miami at Tennessee (-2.5)

Last week: Dolphins beat Jaguars 14-10; Titans beat Rams 47-7.

Something has to give in this one. The Dolphins and Titans both enter the game on a roll, and with plenty of momentum. Chris Johnson gives the Titans the edge in this one, however. He'll allow the Titans to control the football, and you can pretty much put him down for 100.

No matter who quarterbacks the Titans, the plan will be too feed Johnson. On defense, the Titans will also make enough plays to hold on and keep their postseason dreams alive. Take Titans.

 New England at Buffalo (+6.5)

Last week: Patriots beat Panthers 20-10; Bills beat Chiefs 16-10.

Given the string of shaky road performances by the Patriots, extending their winning streak in this series is no sure thing. The Bills want to finish strong for interim head coach Perry Fewell, who needs to run the table to have a shot (albeit a long shot) to get the permanent job. They also would love to play the role of spoiler as the Patriots are fighting off challenges by the Miami Dolphins and New York Jets in the AFC East.

At some point, the Patriots have to show they're capable of playing somewhere other than the friendly confines of Gillette Stadium. They'll play with a greater sense of urgency and prove to be the superior team in this matchup again. Take Patriots.

Arizona at Detroit (+10.5)

Last week: Cardinals beat 49ers; Lions lost to Ravens 48-3.

This is a complete mismatch no matter how you slice it. The Lions aren't going to be able to score much against Arizona's physical defense and the Cardinals' offense could score on seven straight possessions. Hey, if the Ravens can do it (which they did last week), then it shouldn't be such a tall order for the high-flying Cardinals.

The Lions have serious deficiencies in their secondary because they bust coverages on deep passing routes and they don't tackle well in the ground game, allowing big runs. Take Cardinals.

San Francisco at Philadelphia (-8.5)

Last week: 49ers lost to Cardinals; Eagles beat Giants 45-38.

The playoffs are so close for the Eagles; they can almost reach out and grab it. Even after San Francisco's impressive win against the Cardinals gave the Niners some momentum, the Eagles aren't likely to turn the ball over seven times.

San Francisco won't have an answer for the deep-threat combination of Donovan McNabb and DeSean Jackson. But the 49ers cover. Take points and 49ers.

Atlanta at NY Jets (-5.5)

Last week: Falcons lost to Saints 26-23; Jets beat Buccaneers 26-3.

Although a 2-6 skid has dropped Atlanta to 6-7, the Falcons are the most dangerous team the Jets will have played since losing to the Patriots. The Jets can't expect to play the same way they have during their winning streak.

Even without QB Matt Ryan and RB Michael Turner, the Falcons' offense put up 23 points against New Orleans, so the Jets will have to make plays on offense, rather than focus on not turning the ball over, as they have done the past three games.

The playoff-hungry Jets do have more motivation than the fading Falcons, though, and that should make a difference, especially in the fourth quarter but the Jets have a tendency against tough teams…it will be close. Take Falcons.

Chicago at Baltimore (-9.5)

Last week: Bears lost to Packers 21-14; Ravens beat Lions 48-3.

It's getting late in the year, and the difference for a lot of teams is that some have something to play for, and the others don't.

The Ravens are at home, and in playoff contention. The Bears have played poorly over the last month, and have nothing to play for. Take Ravens.

Cleveland at Kansas City (-1.5)

Last week: Browns beat Steelers 13-6; Chiefs lost to Bills 16-10.

There appears little to choose from between two forlorn programs. Neither team is capable of getting much done on offense, and both teams show considerable weakness on defense. So the game should come down to big plays and turnovers.

The Chiefs are forcing turnovers on defense, and RB Jamaal Charles gives them an edge to their running game they previously lacked. Look for Kansas City to win a close game that certainly could go the other way. Take Chiefs.

Houston at St-Louis (+9.5)

Last week: Texans beat Seahawks 34-7; Rams lost to Titans 47-7.

QB Matt Schaub is overlooked in the AFC but is an emerging quarterback. If the Texans are on their game, they could light up the St. Louis defense. The Rams are coming off one of their worst drubbings in franchise history and the frustration is knee deep at Rams Park.

Adding to the woes was the decision to release RG Richie Incognito, who despite his knucklehead moments was a good run blocker and a physical presence. Have the Rams reached the breaking point, and just given in to what has been a disastrous year? Take Texans.

 Oakland at Denver (-12.5

Last week: Raiders lost to Redskins 34-13; Broncos lost to Colts 28-16.

The first meeting was no contest. The Broncos were the more physical team and dominated the Raiders on both sides of the ball. Oakland won't want a repeat of that blowout, but the Raiders also aren't good enough to beat a Broncos team that is motivated by a playoff race and does a good job not playing down to its competition.

Denver's running game should be able to move the chains all game, as it did the first time the teams played, and Oakland's uncertainty at quarterback will bog down the offense and ruin the Raiders' chances of keeping pace. Take Broncos.

Tampa Bay at Seattle (-6.5)

Last week: Buccaneers lost to Jets 26-3; Seahawks lost to Texans 34-7.

Seattle has had its share of problems, but beating up on the league's less fortunate teams hasn't been one of them. Three of its five victories have come against the Rams (two) and the Lions.

The Buccaneers have not scored a touchdown in their past nine quarters, and they have not had a rushing touchdown since Nov. 15. Seattle has shut out two of its six opponents at home this season, and Tampa Bay very well could be the third. Take Seahawks.

Minnesota at Carolina (+7.5)

Last week: Vikings beat Bengals 30-10; Panthers lost to Patriots 20-10.

Under ordinary circumstances, this would have been a fascinating game to watch, as an outdoor winter game would have been a good barometer of how Brett Favre might play in the postseason. But right now, the Panthers' run defense is a mess, meaning Adrian Peterson and Chester Taylor could end up having huge days.

That will take most of the pressure off Favre from having to make too many plays. Coupled with the Vikings' aggressive defense teeing off against a Panthers' offense that can barely make sweat at the moment, this one has the potential to get ugly in a hurry. Take Vikings.

My upset of the week: Chargers (+2.5) at Cowboys.

My no-brainer of the week: Packers (-2.5) at Bears.

My record against the spread:

Last week: 7-9.

Season: 96-96.

Pittsburgh at Cleveland (+9.5)

Last week: Steelers lost to Raiders 27-24; Browns lost to Chargers 30-23.

The Steelers are living on the edge. They have been there before, but seldom this close to falling so soon. At 6-6, with more daunting games against the Packers and Ravens up next, they can't even count on getting in if they win out. They can probably count on winning at Cleveland, but even that wasn't easy the last time they were there, winning 10-6 in 2008.

The Steelers are loaded with veterans known for clutch performances, and their persona always makes them a team that warms up to cold weather. Yet, their most important player on defense, Troy Polamalu, likely won't play.

Pittsburgh won four of its past five last year after a mid-season lull. In their other recent Super Bowl season, 2005, they won their last four games on the heels of a three-game losing streak.

The Browns are playing for the satisfaction of wrecking their arch-rival's postseason hopes. It would be quite a shock, since they have not stood in the way while the Steelers have reached the postseason in four of the past five years.

In October, Ben Roethlisberger  passed for 417 yards against Cleveland in a win that was way more one-sided that the 27-14 final score. But, Roethlisberger doesn't always have the last laugh against Cleveland. He was carted off the field with a concussion late in the first half of last year's regular-season finale. It was the scariest moment of his career. It didn't seem to bother him the next time he faced Cleveland and made a shaky secondary look miserable.

This could be one of the weirdest stadium scenes the NFL has witnessed. The Steelers always have plenty of their own fans at road games, but in this case, there is a great chance it will be a solid majority. Numerous Browns fans have long since dropped tickets onto the re-sale market, finding few interested buyers among their own.

Steeler fans have flocked to cheap tickets to a game at Cleveland. The Browns have lost 12 straight to the Steelers, and 18 of the past 19. The scene might resemble a Christmas Eve, 2005 game at Cleveland when about 30 percent of the crowd was in yellow and black at kickoff, changing to 99 percent by the end of a blowout.

Injuries have depleted the Browns at linebacker and in the secondary, and they don't seem to have anybody who can cover the middle of the field. Chargers TE Antonio Gates had a career-high 167 receiving yards against them on Sunday, so the Steelers need to get TE Heath Miller, who has just two catches the past two games, more involved.

After allowing four kick returns for touchdowns in five games, the Steelers have not allowed any in their past two. But the returner this time is Joshua Cribbs, who had a 98-yard scoring return against them in the first meeting. Teams have been kicking away from Cribbs, but he had a 42 and 31-yard return against the Chargers.

Brady Quinn is in his third year with the Browns, but this will be his first game against the team's rival. His poise will be tested against a defense that has rattled other Cleveland quarterbacks. Quinn will have to keep functioning after taking some hits, which everyone knows are coming; few hit harder than OLB James Harrison. Quinn's struggles this year are owed largely to waiting a bit too long to make a decision and then throwing too cautiously when he does. He must be tough, decisive and spontaneous to have any shot against the Steelers.

Cleveland Defensive Coordinator Rob Ryan tried to do too much to get pressure on Roethlisberger in the Oct. 18 game. The result left players who hadn't yet grasped his system — or lacked the tools to execute certain calls — out of position. Roethlisberger, Santonio Holmes, Hines Ward and Heath Miller ate the coverage alive. Now, Ryan and his players have a better grasp of each other, but injuries have forced assorted position moves, and big plays were a problem Sunday against the Chargers. Ryan is good at timing blitzes and disguising coverages in ways that can give even experienced QBs trouble. The trick is to do that on a consistent basis. Ryan has little choice but to err on the side of taking too many gambles rather than not enough. Given the Browns' diluted personnel, Roethlisberger would destroy a vanilla scheme.

Round 2 draft pick WR Brian Robiskie looked lost for two months and then wasn't even dressing on game days. He came out of the blue with a crisp four-catch game against San Diego. Tall, skinny tight end Evan Moore was a Packer castoff who was making his Browns' debut against San Diego. He made a few acrobatic hands catches that made everyone wonder where the heck he has been. He had six catches in all. Running back Jerome Harrison came out of the doghouse to look like a decent replacement for injured feature back Jamal Lewis. And Quinn followed up a bad game at Cincinnati with a fairly impressive one against San Diego. If they can build on that, the Browns have a shot.

It's the strangest thing. The Steelers have lapsed into panic mode, talking about line-up changes and injury woes amid a four-game losing streak. The Browns are a 1-11 team acting as if a 30-23 loss to San Diego was a sure sign they are on the verge of a breakthrough. If the Steelers are without Polamalu and follow through on talk about starting two rookie cornerbacks, Quinn has a chance. He has been shut down by teams with experienced cover men, but his confidence seems to go way up when he senses his receivers have a chance to be open.

The loss to Oakland was a bit of a mirage, in that the Steelers were in scoring range all day, uncharacteristically blowing chances at touchdowns. Steeler's coach Mike Tomlin's job isn't in trouble the way Eric Mangini's is, but Tomlin is acting as if he is under as much pressure as Mangini. Pittsburgh's iron-willed persona seems to have cracked in the process. Even at that, Cleveland's offensive arsenal doesn't compare to Pittsburgh's. Cleveland's defense has given up big plays all year and will get hit enough to make it hurt again. Take Steelers.

Denver at Indianapolis (-6.5)

Last week: Broncos beat Chiefs 44-13; Colts beat Titans 27-17.

Neither sideline will be lacking playoff motivation. With a win, the Colts clinch the No. 1 seed and home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. With an upset, the 8-4 Broncos keep the pressure on 9-3 San Diego in the race for the AFC West lead.  

Along with securing the top seed for the third time since 1999, the Colts can break New England's all-time league record for consecutive regular-season victories with a 22nd straight and surpass the San Francisco 49ers, who had 113 wins from 1990-99, as the league's winningest team in any decade.

The game might feature two of the more undersized and somewhat unheralded pass-rush threats. That would be the Colts' Robert Mathis, a 6-2, 245-pounder who ranks second on the team with 9.5 sacks, the Broncos' Elvis Dumervil, a 5-11, 260-pounder who leads the league with 15 sacks.

On the sideline, the Colts' Jim Caldwell (12-0) and the Broncos' Josh McDaniel (8-4) have combined for the most wins in league history by rookie coaches who have met during the regular season.

QB Kyle Orton is coming off an unusual game for him, in which he turned the ball over three times, including an ill-advised pass back to the middle of the field in the red zone. If the Broncos want to upset the Colts, Orton must be very careful with the ball, while picking his spots to throw downfield. Indianapolis has racked up 14 interceptions.

When the Colts get the lead, they can let ends Dwight Freeney and Mathis loose. If the Broncos do fall behind, their tackles need to be at their best. Ryan Clady hasn't been as dominant he was last year, and Tyler Polumbus is in line to make his fifth career start because of Ryan Harris' toe injury. If the Broncos need to help the tackles, they won't be able to use spread formations as effectively.

The Broncos have done an admirable job not allowing deep passes, but Peyton Manning can wear a defense out underneath. This isn't the week for the Broncos to sit back. Players like cornerback Champ Bailey and Andre Goodman have to be aggressive and make a big play or two that could swing the game in Denver's favor.

Orton has proven to be just what coach Josh McDaniel wanted when he acquired him in an offseason trade that sent Jay Cutler to the Bears. He's a good decision-maker and takes care of the football. The Colts' defense is at its best when Freeney and Mathis apply the pressure and the back seven come up with takeaways. If the Manning-led offense can establish an early lead, Orton might have to get away from a No. 9-ranked running game and do more than he's capable of in order to keep up.

Four-time Pro Bowl receiver Reggie Wayne remains one of the league's premier players at his position, but he's been relatively quiet of late. He has just seven receptions for 67 yards the past two games. Defenses are bracketing Wayne with a cornerback and safety, forcing Manning to look elsewhere. Look for offensive coordinator Tom Moore to counter that by moving Wayne around in the formation. The other receivers are picking up the slack for Wayne, but he needs to be a bigger contributor.

Manning continues to be the driving force behind the offense. He leads the league in yards (3,685) and completion percentage (70 percent) and has 25 touchdowns for a league-record 12th straight season. But the offense has shown balance recently behind RB Joseph Addai. That needs to continue. Addai hasn't put up gaudy numbers and he's averaging 63.8 yards over the past six games,  but he's gotten the tough yards and kept the chains moving. As long as Addai rushes for 65-70 yards per game and averages 4 yards per attempt, the offense is difficult to deal with.

So much is within reach for the Colts on Sunday. Clinching the No. 1 seed, a league-record 22nd regular-season win, a second 13-0 start in the past five seasons. Denver has a lot to play for, but Coach Jim Caldwell has done an outstanding job of keeping his team motivated and focused.

That won't change Sunday. Look for the Manning-led offense to make enough plays against the Broncos' No. 3-ranked scoring defense and the Freeney-led defense to put sufficient pressure on Orton. Take Colts.

Cincinnati at Minnesota (-6.5)

Last week: Bengals beat Lions 23-13; Vikings lost to Cardinals 30-17.

The Vikings and Bengals each have an opportunity to clinch a division championship Sunday. For the Vikings, winning the NFC North seemed like a formality for several weeks. But after being humbled by Arizona in a 30-17 loss Sunday that wasn't as close as the final score, Minnesota needs to get back on track.

The Vikings played their worst game of the season in all three phases. The special teams gave up a 64-yard punt return that set up a touchdown. The Vikings' vaunted defensive line couldn't pressure Kurt Warner, Brett Favre threw two interceptions and Adrian Peterson was stuffed.

The challenge for the 10-2 Vikings is to rebound against a physical Bengals team (9-3) that would clinch the AFC North with a win. The Vikings would clinch the NFC North with a win and a Green Bay loss.

The Bengals have a strong defense and have controlled games on the ground, but have been inconsistent recently. They lost 20-17 at Oakland three weeks ago and mustered just 16 points in a win over Cleveland. They're coming off a 23-13 win against Detroit, which isn't exactly something to celebrate.

The Bengals will play without their best run defender, defensive tackle Domata Peko, who on Monday had arthroscopic surgery on his right knee. Cincinnati ranks No. 2 against the run.

 To beat the Vikings, who are coming off a disappointing performance at Green Bay, and join the playoffs, they must be focused and play a complete game. Considering three different players (Bernard Scott, Larry Johnson and Cedric Benson) have rushed for more than 100 yards the past three weeks, the team has proved it can run the ball. The goal now is to elevate the passing game and get it on par with the rushing attack. After all, one-dimensional teams get exposed come playoff time.

With his strength, speed and incredible cutback ability, Adrian Peterson is a threat to score every time he touches the ball. It is critical for the front seven to provide gap control and get good spacing. The line must anchor at the point of attack, with the linebackers filling the gaps and patrolling the cutback lanes. The Bengals don't want Peterson to beat them. They'll take their chances with quarterback Brett Favre. Containing Peterson and pressuring Favre are critical ingredients for a Cincinnati win.

The Bengals rely on their ground game to control the clock and carry the offense, which has had trouble establishing the passing game. Running back Cedric Benson has had five games with at least 25 carries. The Vikings rank No. 3 against the run, essentially because teams have fallen behind and been forced to throw. This will be a true test for defensive tackles Pat Williams and Kevin Williams.

The loss of Viking middle linebacker E.J. Henderson to a broken leg won't be easy to overcome because he was a team leader and was playing his best football of the season in recent weeks. He was a key factor in the run defense, often chasing down running backs near the line of scrimmage. Rookie Jasper Brinkley replaces Henderson in the starting lineup. Brinkley is big (6-1, 252), hits hard and plays the run well.

The Vikings didn't make a commitment to running the ball against Arizona. They came out passing and never established Adrian Peterson, who finished with 13 carries for 19 yards. Even if he's getting stuffed, Peterson needs to carry the ball more than 13 times. The Vikings' line needs to match Cincinnati's physical play on defense and get Peterson going in this game.

Despite their impressive records, Cincinnati and Minnesota have something to prove. The Vikings, embarrassed on prime-time TV Sunday night at Arizona, have feasted on teams with poor records, with losses coming against Arizona and Pittsburgh.

If they play well and defeat Cincinnati, it would go a long way toward proving the Arizona game was merely a one-game setback and not a sign of bigger problems. The Bengals want to prove they are a legitimate Super Bowl threat and play power football against the Vikings, who led the NFL in run defense the past three years. Take points and Bengals.

San Diego at Dallas (-2.5)

Last week: Chargers beat Browns 30-23; Cowboys lost to Giants 31-24.

Chargers coach Norv Turner, who won a Super Bowl ring in the '90s as the Cowboys' offensive coordinator, is the guy Jerry Jones passed over to hire Wade Phillips. Now, Turner can put a significant dent in the Cowboys' playoff hopes, while inching his own team closer to a home playoff game and the No. 2 seed in the AFC. It doesn't really get any better than that.

Unless, of course, you consider Turner's team plays its best football in December when the games matter most, while the Cowboys have a history of faltering after Thanksgiving Day. Consider: Turner is 10-0 after Dec. 1 and has won at least one playoff game each of the past two seasons. He took San Diego to the AFC championship game in the 2007 campaign. Phillips' Cowboys, on the other hand, are 3-6 after Dec. 1 and lost their only playoff game. They became the first No. 1 seed in the NFC to lose in the divisional round since the current playoff format was established in 1996.

This is all relevant because the Cowboys, who lost to the Giants last week, need to beat the Chargers and end the discussion about their inability to win in December. Last year, the Cowboys entered the month 8-4, just like this year, but went 1-3 and missed the playoffs.

The problem is that San Diego has won seven consecutive games and is one of the hottest teams in the league. If not for the undefeated Saints and Colts, much of the national attention would be focused on the Chargers.

No team has ever hoped to fall behind or start slowly, but doing so in mammoth Cowboys Stadium will make for a difficult day against Dallas' strong pass rush. The Chargers have led at least 7-0 in all but one game during their winning streak; consequently, San Diego's offense has been balanced and its defense has been able to play aggressively.

Getting to Tony Romo will be a arduous task for the Chargers which have left a lot of sacks on the field the past few weeks; their aggressive pass rushers have struggled with angles and in bringing down mobile quarterbacks. San Diego needs to rough up Romo and force him to get rid of the ball early.

Cowboys backs Marion Barber, Felix Jones and Tashard Choice each average at least 4.4 yards a carry, and they advance the ball in different ways. The Chargers have been much better against the run during their winning streak, but their defensive line is banged up and outside linebacker Shawne Merriman (foot) may not play. Add in a young secondary, and it's possible San Diego may not be able to stop the Cowboys on the ground.

Marion Barber is the hammer and the guy who gives the Cowboys an emotional boost. Tashard Choice is the steady backup and the Wildcat quarterback. Felix Jones is the guy who gives the running game juice. He has the speed and moves to create a big play every time he touches the ball. But the Cowboys haven't been able to get him untracked since he missed several weeks with a sprained knee. He had a 46-yard touchdown run on Thanksgiving Day against Oakland, but that has been the exception. He has just one run of more than 19 yards in the past six games. He had one at least that long in each of his first three games.

The Cowboys gave up a 74-yard touchdown pass last week to lumbering 265-pound back Brandon Jacobs. Chargers running backs LaDainian Tomlinson and Darren Soles are considerably more dangerous. The Chargers love to use L.T. on circle routes in the middle of the field and get him matched up on linebackers. Sproles is averaging 11.5 yards on 39 catches and has three touchdowns. The Chargers just want him to get the ball in space whether it's on screens or in the flat.

Some players, such as Bradie James, Jason Witten and Terence Newman, dwell on the Cowboys' December failures. They talk about the importance of having a breakthrough game so they don't have to discuss the issue anymore. Coach Wade Phillips and Tony Romo prefer to act as if the Cowboys' struggles in December are no big deal. Dallas can't get swept up in a feeling of "here we go again" if it has a bad play, or a bad series, or a bad half against the Chargers.

The Cowboys do not want a two-game losing streak going into their road trip against New Orleans next week because a potential three-game losing streak would be devastating. They will play with as much desperation as they have displayed in any game this season. The problem is San Diego, one of the league's best teams, can run it and throw it. Take Chargers.

Philadelphia at NY Giants (-1.5)

Last week: Eagles beat Falcons 34-7; Giants beat Cowboys 31-24.

How about a battle for first place as a reason to watch?

These late-season Giants-Eagles games always seem to have high stakes and this one is no exception. The Eagles and Cowboys (both 8-4) have a one-game lead on the Giants (7-5) and the Eagles are looking for a two-game season series sweep and their fourth consecutive victory over the Giants. Included in a five-game losing streak by the Giants was a 40-17 loss in Philadelphia, a rare blowout in a rivalry that is usually hotly contested.

No team has been affected by the greater awareness and concern about concussions than the Eagles. RB Brian Westbrook has missed the past three games and WR DeSean Jackson missed last week's game, both because of concussions.

Neither has been ruled out of this game. The return of one or both would be an instant spark. Westbrook did not play in the first meeting with the Giants and the Eagles didn't miss him, rushing for 180 yards. Jackson was a factor though, hauling in a 54-yard touchdown pass.

Donovan McNabb is often at his best late in the season, as the Eagles are 12-3 in December since 2006. The cold and possibly harsh weather conditions do not seem to bother McNabb, who is usually able to strong-arm the ball through the breeze.

The same cannot be said about Eli Manning, who has endured his share of problems in bad weather late in the season. The winds at Giants Stadium are notorious and this is most likely the last time these rivals will play in that building, which is set to close following this season.

 McNabb, who passed for 240 yards and three touchdowns in the Eagles' earlier win against the Giants, should have another field day against New York's struggling secondary. The Giants have allowed an average of 298 passing yards per game in its past three games and opponents are converting just under 50 percent of third downs against them. With DeSean Jackson expected to return from a concussion, the Eagles must make the vertical game a priority.

The Giants sacked McNabb twice in the first game, but for the most part McNabb had plenty of time to make his progressions and hit targets in stride. He tossed touchdowns of 54 yards and 23 yards mainly because left tackle Jason Peters and right tackle Winston Justice kept the Giants' star-studded pass rushers off McNabb's back. The Giants got an effective rush against Dallas by standing up his pass rushers to confuse the Cowboys' offensive line. The Eagles need to be ready for whatever tricks come from Giants coordinator Bill Sheridan's bag this game.

To feel comfortable, the Eagles need K David Akers to get over his Giants Stadium hex. He's made just four of his last eight kicks there and had his two blocked last year there. The swirling winds around the Meadowlands seem to play mind tricks with Akers, who usually has the distance there but not the accuracy. Also, the Eagles need better kickoff coverage against Giants KR Domenik Hixon, the reigning NFC special teams player of the week. The Eagles have rolled out the red carpet for returners this year. They're allowing 24.4 yards per return.

Even though the Giants allowed a career-high 392 passing yards and three touchdown passes by Tony Romo, they were able to survive the onslaught because they made the Cowboys one-dimensional, limiting Dallas to a season-low 45 rushing yards. The Giants' run defense has become more athletic with the insertion of DE Mathias Kiwanuka and LB Jonathan Goff, helping the gang-tackling approach that is needed.

Dealing with opposing tight ends hasn't been easy for the Giants, who have difficulty with their coverage down the field whether they put a linebacker or a cornerback on a quality pass-catcher. The Giants are coming off a 31-24 victory over the Cowboys but their work against Jason Witten wasn't the reason why. Witten was really never stopped as he caught 14 passes for 156 yards, mostly against LB Michael Boley. The Eagles' Brent Celek leads his team in receptions and, while not as dynamic as Witten, is a sure-handed target who will be targeted by Donovan McNabb on third down.

Despite their victory, the Giants failed to truly establish a punishing ground game against the Cowboys, as the best moment for Brandon Jacobs came on a 74-yard catch-and-run. Historically the Giants have had some success running on the Eagles by timing up the blitz and running into the vacated areas. Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw — who ran well vs. Dallas even though he was coming off two sprained ankles — must get to the second line of the Philadelphia defense and then make sharp cuts to turn modest gains into larger ones.

Until proven otherwise, the Eagles own this rivalry for the time being, as they have been the tougher and more resilient team in winning the past three games. They certainly are not intimidated by the hostile surroundings and are getting healthier at the right time.

The Giants have tried and failed to build momentum from a victory and they remain susceptible in coverage even with their revamped defense. Eli Manning has not played especially well the past two games and his offensive line is not what it once was, and now RG Chris Snee is dealing with a knee issue. Take Eagles.

New Orleans at Atlanta (+9.5)

Last week: Saints beat Redskins 33-30; Falcons lost to Eagles 34-7.

With Matt Ryan's turf toe possibly holding him out for the rest of the season, the Falcons are close to throwing in the towel. A single loss would derail their postseason hopes. Saints coach Sean Payton made headlines Monday when he admitted that the Saints are going for the perfect season even if they clinch home-field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs.

After Coach Payton's declaration, it seems the Saints won't look past any opponent down the stretch. Their huge scare against Washington should jolt them awake and they now face a much weaker defense at a cozy indoor stadium. Expect the Saints to light up the Falcons and cover the spread. Take Saints.

Detroit at Baltimore (-12.5)

Last week: Lions lost to Bengals 23-13; Ravens lost to Packers 27-14.

The Ravens have had their share of problems this season, but nothing like Detroit, a perennially-losing bunch that also has a lot of injuries. The Lions might hit a couple of big plays, but the Ravens still have too many horses for Detroit.

This will be a decent game until midway through the third quarter, when the Ravens take control with a dominating running game. Take Ravens.

Green Bay at Chicago (+2.5)

Last week: Packers beat Ravens 27-14; Bears beat Rams 17-9.

The Packers have stepped up during the second half of the season while the Bears have slid on both sides of the ball. Chicago doesn't have a victory over a team with a winning record. It's the time of year when the better teams step up and the pretenders fade away.

Aaron Rodgers should have plenty of time to shred the Bears' secondary. In the fourth quarter, expect RB Ryan Grant to kill the clock by running stretch plays and weakside draws straight through the Bears' defense. Take Packers.

Seattle at Houston (-5.5)

Last week: Seahawks beat 49ers 20-17; Texans lost to Jaguars 23-18.

The Texans can't afford a fifth consecutive loss. They figure to play another close game, but they must come out on top. The running game won't figure into a victory because it's too inconsistent and nonproductive.

QB Matt Schaub and his receivers will have to stake the Texans to a win, and the defense will have to hold it. Take points and Seahawks.

Miami at Jacksonville (-2.5)

Last week: Dolphins beat Patriots 22-21; Jaguars beat Texans 23-18.

With resilient hard-nosed teams who are hungry for playoff berths clashing, you can expect a physical contest.

The Jaguars feature tons of diversity defensively, and keep opponents guessing with their ability to execute consistently out of both the 4-3 and 3-4 fronts. Miami, meanwhile, offers a plethora of offensive looks ranging from I-formation to its trademark wildcat look. Such conditions make for an interesting chess match between the teams.

At the end of the day, physicality and the field-position battle will win out. Because Miami running back Ricky Williams is banged up, look for the Jags to shut down the rushing attack, forcing the club to throw more than usual. If that's the case, the key for Jacksonville's up-and-down pass rush is to get to young QB Chad Henne to take pressure off its secondary.

One or two key plays on special teams will likely decide this contest. Look for the Jags to edge the Dolphins in a close contest, thus improving their home win streak to six in a row. Take Jaguars.

Buffalo at Kansas City (PK)

Last week: Bills lost to Jets 19-13; Chiefs lost to Broncos 44-13.

The Chiefs have been blown out in many games this season but almost always against playoff contenders. The 4-7 Bills don't qualify, so Sunday's game could be a competitive one. Each team is having problems offensively, so the game may not feature many big plays.

Turnovers will probably decide the matter. The Chiefs in recent games have been the team prone to turnovers while the Bills are among the league leaders in takeaways. So if the game follows that form, look for Buffalo to win a close one. Take Bills.

Carolina at New England (-13.5)

Last week: Panthers beat Buccaneers 16-6; Patriots lost to Dolphins 22-21.

Just like so many late-season games, this one is critical for both teams. The Panthers have their last opportunity to put together a run toward the playoffs. At 5-7, they need every one of them. And a victory over the Patriots -- reeling or not -- would be huge for confidence.

As for the Pats, they must not only perform a miraculous fix on an ailing defense, they must also get the offense and Tom Brady clicking again. Oh, and coach Bill Belichick's team has to hold onto its slim AFC East lead. And they will, though it may be more interesting than they want. Nevertheless, take Patriots to cover.

NY Jets at Tampa Bay (+3.5)

Last week: Jets beat Bills 19-13; Buccaneers lost to Panthers 16-6.

Expect nothing less than ugly football at Raymond James Stadium on Sunday. We'll see turnovers galore from Tampa and probably a massive performance from RB Thomas Jones.

 Don't expect a bounce-back effort from QB Josh Freeman, whose confidence is likely rattled. Pick the Jets and watch Darrelle Revis bolster his defensive MVP campaign with at least one interception. Take Jets.

St-Louis at Tennessee (-12.5)

Last week: Rams lost to Bears 17-9; Titans lost to Colts 27-17.

The Titans have flickering playoff hopes, while the Rams are playing out the string at this point. The Titans have more talent than the Rams, and RB Chris Johnson has a chance to record his second 200-yard game of the season in this one.

With Johnson and a stingy defense leading the way, the Titans take care of the Rams at LP Field and stay in contention for another week. The Rams might make it interesting early, but are knocked out in the second half. Take Titans.

Washington at Oakland (+1.5)

Last week: Redskins lost to Saints 33-30; Raiders beat Steelers 27-24.

The Raiders have yet to follow up an impressive win with another victory the past seven seasons, including twice this season. However, they are as confident as they have been all season and certain that they are ready to clear the next hurdle to turning around their fortunes.

 The Raiders will keep in extra blockers and roll out QB Bruce Gradkowski on most passing downs in an attempt to neutralize Albert Haynesworth. The Raiders won't have any difficulty clamping down on receivers Santana Moss and Antwaan Randle El with CB Nnamdi Asomugha and Chris Johnson.

This is a game the Raiders feel as if they can win, and they will because they know too much is riding upon it for them to have another letdown after a big victory. Take Raiders.

Arizona at San Francisco (+2.5)

Last week: Cardinals beat Vikings 30-17; 49ers lost to Seahawks 20-17.

Monday's game won't have the playoff implications ESPN was hoping for just one week ago, but prime time games between the 49ers and Cardinals recently have been close, exciting affairs. The 49ers nearly pulled an upset last year in Glendale only to fall short on the game's last play.

Although San Francisco has been all but eliminated from the postseason hunt, look for Mike Singletary to have his team fired up for national television.

The 49ers have tried to avoid shootouts with Kurt Warner and his cast of quality receivers in the past. This time, however, they have an offense that can at least keep pace. Look for the Cardinals to eke out another wild one. Take Cardinals.

My no-brainer of the week: Bears (+9.5) at Vikings.

My record against the spread:

Last week: 6-10.

Season: 82-78.

 
Green Bay at Detroit (-9.5)

Last week: Packers beat 49ers 30-24; Lions beat Browns 38-37.

This game will likely turn into a game of chicken -- can the Detroit blitz get to Packers QB Aaron Rodgers before Rodgers gets to Detroit's undermanned and overmatched secondary. The Lions have no choice but to blitz the Packers heavily because they can't get a push with just the front four. The Lions failed to get to Cleveland's Brady Quinn last week, and he threw four TD passes. If the Lions can't pressure Rodgers, he'll toy with a perfect passer rating.

Lions QB Daunte Culpepper, who is expected to start for the injured Matthew Stafford, is playing for his career. Culpepper still yearns to start in the league, and the soon-to-be free agent wants to show other teams that he still has what it takes. Culpepper still has the physical skills, including mobility and arm strength, but he has to convince personnel people that he can make good decisions with consistency.

The Lions will come out with a wave of energy to start the game, and the Packers will have to match or withstand it. The visiting team tends to wear out first in games played in a short week, and it will be vital not to trail early. One of the keys to doing that is establishing the run and keeping the crowd quiet. A couple of long drives to start out the game will calm down the Lions' fans.

While the Lions aren't a very good team, they have some impressive young talent, and TE Brandon Pettigrew is quickly establishing himself as a real weapon. A physical blocker, he's also becoming a force as a receiver who can muscle for yards after the catch and move the chains. When he gets more consistency in his overall game, he's going to be a matchup nightmare for defensive coordinators.

With Al Harris out and Charles Woodson playing a plethora of positions, Green Bay coaches will have to find a way to protect new starting corner Tramon Williams and new nickel back Jarrett Bush. That probably means playing a lot of cover 2 if they don't plan to move Woodson around in blitz situations. Playing cover 2 reduces the creativity in the Packers' blitz package, but it's better than giving up a bunch of big plays.

If the Lions are going to have a chance to win, they have to avoid Woodson, who feasts on Detroit quarterbacks. Woodson can't cover the long ball like he used to, but he's a hawk in the short zones and an expert at baiting quarterbacks who think they have a soft read. Woodson already has five picks this season, and he'll have a chance for more because the Lions will have to throw a great deal to keep pace.

Backup running back Brandon Jackson was effective last week on third down by showing a good knack for working the screen pass, something that has been missing all season. Opponents are coming hard after Aaron Rodgers because of all the sacks the team has allowed, so it is crucial to run successful screens. Jackson isn't a breakaway threat, but he runs hard and usually leans forward for a couple of extra yards. He's a good complement to starter Ryan Grant.

Lion RB Kevin Smith's rushing numbers aren't always impressive, but he continues to make valuable contributions as a receiver out of the backfield. He's comfortable running routes downfield, including up the seam. Though he doesn't have great speed, he's elusive in the open field and knows how to work his blockers.

The Packers dominated the Lions 26-0 in the first meeting, and the game wasn't even that close. Green Bay simply has too much offensive firepower, and Detroit is too banged up on offense to match them. The Lions are giving up 30 points per game and surrendered 37 points to the Browns, who had scored a total of 29 points in their previous five games combined. And the Lions are catching the Packers at a bad time -- after losing two straight games, Green Bay has won its last two and needs to keep rolling to keep their playoff hopes alive. Take Packers.

Oakland at Dallas (-13.5)

Last week: Raiders beat Bengals 20-17; Cowboys beat Redskins 7-6.

Remember when this used to be a battle between two of the league's best franchises? The Raiders with their Commitment to Excellence against the Cowboys, dubbed America's Team by NFL Films.

These days, the Raiders have been one of the league's worst teams since a Super Bowl appearance in 2002, while the Cowboys haven't won a playoff game since 1996.

That said, this game between storied NFL franchises is a much bigger contest for Dallas than Oakland.

A win and the Cowboys will be 8-3 and alone in first place in the NFC East entering December, which has been a month of horrors for them. More important, they will be positioned to make the playoffs and end their wretched 12-year streak without a postseason win after missing the playoffs in 2008.

The Raiders are already playing for pride this season, though quarterback Bruce Gradkowski makes them a much more difficult opponent. He led Oakland to a win last week in his first game as a starter, replacing ineffective JaMarcus Russell, the former No.1 pick overall.

The Cowboys have their own issues on offense, scoring only two touchdowns in the past two weeks. The Raiders won't score many points — no matter who's playing quarterback — but their defense is playing pretty well these days.

Cowboys' offensive coordinator Jason Garrett is still searching for his team's identity. This would be a good week to find it.

The Raiders rank 30th in the NFL against the run, yielding 157.7 yards per game. The Cowboys are the second-most efficient team running the ball at 5 yards a pop. The Raiders must free up at least one defender — most likely strong safety Tyvon Branch — to help against the run so the Cowboys don't dictate the tempo of the game from the outset.

 Russell lost his starting job because of his inability to get the ball to his wide receivers on a consistent basis.  Gradkowski did a nice job last week against the Bengals, and he must continue that success against a pair of cornerbacks — Mike Jenkins and Terence Newman — adept in tight man-to-man coverage.

This Raiders team isn't accustomed to playing on national TV with so much attention focused upon them. They must ignore the fact they are playing in a new stadium, on Thanksgiving Day and on national TV and just stick to their routine, as if they are playing a home game.

Just a few weeks ago, the Cowboys were using a overabundance of big plays from a variety of players to score points at a rapid pace. Now, they can hardly score at all. The Cowboys have entered the fourth quarter of each of the last two games with zero points and are fortunate to be 1-1 in those games. In the past two games, Dallas has just two touchdowns in 22 possessions with 12 punts. Part of the reason is they're not getting big plays. They had just four two plays of 20-plus yards against Washington and Green Bay the last two weeks. The Cowboys rank among the league leaders in offensive penalties and struggle to consistently drive the length of the field.

There are a few times in every game when the quarterback gets the right play against the right coverage. When it happens, the quarterback must connect. Tony Romo hasn't been doing that. He is completing only 60 percent of his passes, and his percentage has dropped each of the past four seasons. Of quarterbacks who have thrown at least 300 passes, only Atlanta's Matt Ryan (59.3) and Detroit's Matthew Stafford (55.2) have a lower completion percentage. Romo's 61 poor throws ranks second in the NFL. The Cowboys need him to be more accurate and hit receivers in stride, especially since their offense is struggling.

The Raiders are going to have a tough time winning Thursday if they convert just 27.9 percent of their third downs against the Cowboys. The Raiders rank 30th in the NFL in third-down conversions. Again, that's an area where they should improve with Gradkowski at quarterback instead of Russell. The Cowboys' defense has played well on third down much of this season but struggled against Washington last week in a 7-6 victory, allowing the Redskins to convert 7-of-15 third downs.

The Raiders are at a significant disadvantage, having to travel from the west coast to Dallas on a short week. Add to that an abject offense and it's hard to see how the Raiders win this game, considering Dallas' defense is playing at a high level. However, the Raiders will keep matters close. Take points and Raiders.

NY Giants at Denver (+6.5)

Last week: Giants beat Falcons 34-31; Broncos lost to Chargers 32-3.

The best Thanksgiving matchup is the finale, with a couple of teams in the playoff hunt trying to figure out how to return to the level they were at in September and early October.

The Giants at least got a win and a little bit of confidence last week. They beat Atlanta in overtime to snap a four-game losing streak, and another win could keep them heading in a positive direction. The NFC East is bunched up, with Dallas leading Philadelphia and the Giants by a game.

The AFC West is separated by a game as well, but the Broncos are fading fast. They have lost four in a row and are coming off a devastating 32-3 loss to San Diego, a team Denver handled on the road a month ago. Frustration is starting to become apparent. During the Chargers game, receiver Brandon Marshall and running back Knowshon Moreno had words on the sideline after a Moreno goal line fumble, and Moreno shoved Marshall. The Broncos could fall out of the AFC West race fast if they don't pick up a win soon.

Both teams might be flawed, but Thursday's result might go a long way in determining which one stays relevant through December.

In their last two games, the Giants' defense has allowed the opponent to march down the field for a touchdown in the final minute. The first collapse led to a loss and the second forced overtime. If the Giants don't find a way to cover downfield, they will find it difficult to be a serious playoff contender. Safeties Michael Johnson and Aaron Rouse have to locate the ball in the air, and there needs to be fewer communication breakdowns -- a problem that has cost the Giants in several games.

Pass-catching tight ends pose huge problems to the Giants, who often struggle in coverage. Michael Boley is the best coverage option among the linebackers, but he could not contain Tony Gonzalez last week. There is no safety on the roster who excels at covering tight ends, so the game plan may have to call for a cornerback such as Terrell Thomas to cover Tony Scheffler, who is a threat.

The best news for the Broncos on Sunday -- and perhaps the only bit of good news -- was that Kyle Orton didn't reaggravate his left ankle injury. He gave the Broncos a spark off the bench, and he obviously gives the team its best chance to win. Denver needs to protect Orton and construct a game plan that doesn't ask him to be too mobile.

The Broncos have had good success running to the outside lately, especially with Moreno. Moreno averaged eight yards a carry against San Diego. The problem was Denver fell behind, and Moreno had only 10 carries. Denver needs to keep the game close so it can keep feeding the ball to its rookie tailback. That also will help keep a beleaguered defense off the field.

A month ago, the Broncos were the top-ranked defense in the NFL and wouldn't have been concerned about facing a top running team like the Giants. A lot has changed since then. Denver isn't getting the same push up front, and teams are running the ball well against the Broncos. San Diego broke the 200-yard mark on the ground last week. The Giants will pound the ball the entire game if the Broncos don't match their physical style.

The biggest advantage the Broncos have in this matchup is not having to travel in the short week. New York gets little time to prepare and then has to fly over two time zones for a Thanksgiving game. Still, one has to wonder if the Broncos can take advantage. So many things that worked early in the season for Denver have become problems, and they are coming off an emotional loss to San Diego. The Broncos will be healthier at quarterback than last week, but the Giants are coming off a key win and are probably the better team at this point…barely. Take points and Broncos.

Pittsburgh at Baltimore (-2.5)

Last week: Steelers lost to Chiefs 27-24; Ravens lost to Colts 17-15.

The Ravens would like to break the Steelers' dominance in the series. Pittsburgh has an 18-10 advantage, including three wins last season, one of those in the AFC championship. In all three games, the Ravens had chances to win but couldn't make the big plays at the end. The Ravens like to say this is a rivalry, but it has been very one-sided in recent years.

The Ravens would never admit it, but their quarterback, Joe Flacco, is a facsimile of Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger. Both are big, strong QBs with limited mobility but elusiveness. Both came from small colleges, and both are fairly accurate. But in their three matchups last season, Flacco played his worst games of the year. In contrast, Roethlisberger made big plays in the fourth quarter of each game to lead the Steelers to victory. Also, Big Ben has a couple of Super Bowl rings, and Big Joe doesn't have any yet.

Unless Cincinnati chokes down the stretch, which is always a possibility, Baltimore and Pittsburgh are top contenders for a wild-card playoff berth. Pittsburgh has a one-game advantage over the Ravens, but they face each other twice in the remaining six games. Other wild-card contenders, such as Houston and Jacksonville, might fade, but both the Steelers and the Ravens are sound teams. Unfortunately, one might knock the other out of contention.

The Steelers already have allowed more pass plays of 40 yards or longer (four) than they did all of last season, including two in the final 16 minutes against the Chiefs. The Ravens are not a deep-strike team and lack a vertical passing attack. But Flacco has the arm strength to challenge their two-deep coverage.

One of Roethlisberger's top priorities will be knowing where All-Pro safety Ed Reed is at all times on the field. It is something he has been aware of over the years, and Reed did not have an interception against the Steelers last year, including the playoffs.

Roethlisberger has been a Ravens killer, especially with late-game heroics. He can make plays with his arm or his legs, and he is a master at improvising. Roethlisberger is hard to bring down, so the Ravens are emphasizing staying with their man in pass coverage until they hear a whistle. The Ravens also want to attack Roethlisberger's right arm when they tackle. Because of his strength, Roethlisberger can carry tacklers and still throw the ball.

Pittsburgh wide receiver Hines Ward always gets under the skin of the Ravens. Ward can make big plays, but he has also delivered some killer blocking shots to the Ravens. Some of them are borderline dirty, but Ward never gets penalized. He irritates the Ravens so much that he can get them out of their game, particularly members of the secondary. The Ravens have to keep a lid on Ward, both on the field and in the trash-talking department.

On special teams, long returns have become a disturbing trend for the Steelers, who have allowed a special teams or defensive touchdown in each of their past eight games. What is especially troublesome is their horrid kickoff-coverage unit, which has allowed a touchdown return in four of their past five games.

Teams that have gotten a strong pass rush from their front four and played two-deep coverage have had great success against Flacco. Why? When teams drop seven players into coverage, Flacco has to make more reads, and he hasn't adjusted well. Flacco plays better when the Ravens run a no-huddle because he has to make quick reads, and sometimes the other team can't get their personnel on the field. So the Steelers will try to get a strong pass rush with the front four. It worked well against the Ravens last season in the conference championship game, and you can bet Flacco will see it again Sunday.

In the past, the Ravens have been a tough, physical team, but they've had problems winning against teams with a similar style. The Steelers play with great intensity that Baltimore might not be able to match. Roethlisberger was bothered by a concussion last week in Kansas City, but he should be healthy against the Ravens. If Roethlisberger plays with no side effects, he'll lead Pittsburgh to another victory but the jury is still out that. Take Ravens.

New England at New Orleans (-2.5)

Last week: Patriots beat Jets 31-14; Saints beat Buccaneers 38-7.

The atmosphere in the Superdome should be incredible for one of the most anticipated games ever played in New Orleans. The Saints are a perfect 10-0, and a victory over New England would solidify their status as an elite team and a bona fide Super Bowl favorite. So far, the Saints' most impressive win of the year was against the New York Giants in the Superdome in Week 6, but the Giants have fallen back to the pack a bit since then.

The Patriots (7-3) aren't having their best season, but they remain an elite, proven team with a dynamic offense. And New England will also be trying to protect its status as the only 16-0 team in NFL history -- much like the Miami Dolphins, who protected their perfect reputation on Monday Night Football in 1985 by handing the '85 Chicago Bears their only loss.

The Patriots are still trying to spit out the bad taste from their Week 10 loss at Indianapolis, when they let the Colts come from behind for a last-minute victory (following Coach Bill Belichick's infamous fourth-and-2 decision). They came back with a commanding performance last week, routing the New York Jets, 31-14, and will try to keep rolling through New Orleans. The Patriots started the season slowly, with quarterback Tom Brady shaking off the rust from his 2008 knee injury. But they still loom as a bona fide contender themselves.

There should be plenty of offensive firepower from both teams, who have the top two offenses in the NFL. The Saints average 420.5 yards per game, the Patriots 416.1. New Orleans averages a league-high 36.9 points per game; New England is third at 29.0. And both teams' defenses have been a little more vulnerable than they'd like recently. The Saints' rebuilt secondary has been depleted by injuries, and they may be without their top three cornerbacks on Monday night, not great timing with Brady, Randy Moss and Wes Welker coming to town.

New Orleans' defense has shown it will give up yards -- it is ranked 17th in the league in yards allowed -- so it won't flat-out shut down the Patriots' offense. But if Brady throws it into the hands of safety Darren Sharper or his opportunistic teammates, it spells trouble for the Pats. The Saints have five defensive touchdowns. Brady has four picks in his last four games, which isn't terrible, but he must avoid throwing into traffic.

 Drew Brees has the Saints' offense clicking and will provide the Patriots with a challenge comparable to the one they faced at Indianapolis. Everyone is a weapon, and with a league-leading 40 receptions of 20 yards or more, the completions come in big chunks. Cornerbacks Leigh Bodden and Jonathan Wilhite and their colleagues must make the Saints earn every inch. They have to keep everything in front of them.

The Patriots have three losses because they had three second half letdowns. The Jets (in Week 2), the Broncos and the Colts all benefited from the Pats' mental lapses. There is no doubt the Saints' offense can score in a hurry, so if the Patriots jump out to a big lead, they must remain focused and stay the course. If they leave any opening, the Saints and their frenzied crowd will take advantage of it.

Against the dangerous Patriots, the Saints have to be sound in the secondary no matter who plays. Starting cornerback Tracy Porter (knee) is out, starting corner Jabari Greer (groin) will be questionable and No. 3 corner Randall Gay (hamstring) will be questionable. That leaves rookie Malcolm Jenkins, backup Usama Young and two veterans just plucked out of semi-retirement: Chris McAlister and Mike McKenzie. Look for defensive coordinator Gregg Williams to use a variety of formations and blitzes that protect the back end of his defense.

The Saints were sloppy over a four-game stretch from Weeks 7-10, as a combined 13 turnovers made their games too close for comfort. They cleaned things up last week, winning the turnover battle 4-0 in a rout at Tampa Bay. They need to be just as protective with the ball Monday night in a game where every possession will count and short fields will be capitalized on.

Drew Brees has been establishing himself as the third member of the elite QB class, just behind Peyton Manning and Tom Brady. But he needs to prove it in this matchup. Brees reads defenses brilliantly, he's accurate, and he has great rapport with his receivers. But he has had some sluggish stretches and threw seven picks between Weeks 7-10. He needs to be at his best against the Patriots, who have a decent but not dominant pass defense.

This matchup looks awfully difficult for the Saints, who have been flirting with their first loss for much of the last month and now have a depleted secondary. But in their recent past, the Saints have stepped up and played their best football in these types of showdowns -- when they feel like they have something to prove on a big stage.

 Their most impressive performance of the year came against the Giants in Week 6 when both teams were undefeated. Last year, they routed the Green Bay Packers on Monday Night Football, rolling up 51 points. In 2006, they dominated the Cowboys in a late-season game at Dallas to prove they were a serious contender. They'll be plenty motivated to shine in this game, and the atmosphere in the Dome will be electric. Although I prefer passion over experience, the Patriots will show that the latter still produces winners. Take Patriots.

Tampa Bay at Atlanta (-11.5)

Last week: Buccaneers lost to Saints 38-7; Falcons lost to Giants 34-31.

After forcing the Giants to overtime last week, the Falcons don't need any more moral victories. WR Roddy White summed it up when he stated the playoffs start now for the Falcons, who have kicked away their best start in five seasons.

The offense has to figure that it will be in shootouts until the problems in the secondary are corrected. If the Falcons can blend in a running attack with a Ryan-to-White-and-Gonzalez passing attack, they should be able to put up enough points to mask that leaky secondary for one week. Take Falcons.

Miami at Buffalo (+2.5)

Last week: Dolphins beat Panthers 24-17; Bills lost to Jaguars 18-15.

The Dolphins have the momentum and plenty of incentive to play well. This is not a super talented team, but they are well coached and win games by being more physical than their opponent. The Bills' 3-7 record is a reflection of how frustrating their season has been. But things could have been a whole lot different if they knew how to finish games.

In eight of the Bills' 10 games, they have gone into the fourth quarter either tied or with the lead. They lost five of those games, including the last three. The offense deserves most of the blame because it has scored 20 points just once in the past eight games. As tough as the Dolphins play, it's hard to pick the Bills until their offense proves it can do more than display the occasional flash. Take Dolphins.

Cleveland at Cincinnati (-13.5)

Last week: Browns lost to Lions 38-37; Bengals lost to Raiders 20-17.

The Bengals learned a brutal and painful lesson last week, walking into the Raiders' trap at Oakland and getting ambushed by an unfamiliar AFC West opponent. If you don't come prepared to play a full 60 minutes, you'll get bruised, battered, bloodied and beaten.

They received their wakeup call, and they'll play with a much greater sense of urgency at home against the struggling Browns, whose coach, Eric Mangini, is clinging to his job by a thread. The Bengals have a tendency of letting up after getting ahead. In this game, they must place their hands on Cleveland's throat and not forget to squeeze. Take Bengals.

Indianapolis at Houston (+3.5)

Last week: Colts beat Ravens 17-15; Texans lost to Titans 20-17.

Though undefeated, the Colts are coming off four games decided by four points or fewer, so they're due for a loss. But the Texans are coming off a devastating Monday night loss to Tennessee. Houston has lost three games at home, more than in each of the last two seasons.

And there's no way the Texans will shut down Manning. If they do pull off an upset, it should be a close game. That means K Chris Brown has to get over the yips, regain his confidence and resume making the kind of clutch field goals he's made over the last seven years but curing the yips takes time. Colts win and will finally cover. Take Colts.

Chicago at Minnesota (+9.5)

Last week: Bears lost to Eagles 24-20; Vikings beat Seahawks 35-9.

The Vikings are coming off their most complete game of the season, a 35-9 dismantling of Seattle at home. They will finish a three-game home stand against Chicago hoping to get another easy win before its Sunday night matchup at Arizona.

QB Jay Cutler might have to put together his best game of the season for the Bears to have a chance to win on the road against a Vikings team that's 5-0 at home this season. But that's asking too much, given Cutler's erratic performances. Take Vikings.

Carolina at NY Jets (-2.5)

Last week: Panthers lost to Dolphins 24-17; Jets lost to Patriots 31-14.

Desperate doesn't begin to describe the mindset of both teams in this game, and Carolina does have three extra days to plot and plan after losing to Miami on a Thursday night. But even though Jake Delhomme has been taking much better care of the ball recently, the Panthers' offense doesn't scare anyone, at least inside the 20-yard line.

Mark Sanchez bounced back from his five-interception meltdown against Buffalo with two consecutive turnover-free games, so there's no reason he can't correct some of his mistakes here. As has been their custom this season, Carolina makes some plays, but not enough of them when it matters but they're playing the Jets. Take Panthers.

Washington at Philadelphia (-8.5)

Last week: Redskins lost to Cowboys 7-6; Eagles beat Bears 24-20.

The Redskins have played a couple of good games recently. First was the win over the Broncos at home followed by a tough loss to the Cowboys, in a game they took deep into the fourth quarter. The thought lingers as to how much have the Redskins improved during that short span? Not enough to beat the Eagles at home.

The Eagles do have a tendency to implode now and then and if it was not for Jay Cutler's inaccuracy Sunday night, the Bears could have won that game.

Albeit, this caper is a divisional game and those are often won in the trenches and are typically close affairs. Take points and Redskins.

Seattle at St-Louis (+2.5)

Last week: Seahawks lost to Vikings 35-9; Rams lost to Cardinals 21-13.

Reminiscent of their play at the end of the 2008 season, the Rams are coming close but haven't been able to finish out games. They've lost four times by eight points or fewer, including three times in their past five outings. The Seawhawks represent the Rams' best remaining chance to get a victory, something they have done six times in the past 42 games.

A loss Sunday to Seattle and the Rams tie their franchise record for most consecutive home losses. It won't happen. Kyle Boller is a high-energy player who seems to get his teammates fired up. His mobility will help keep plays alive when the protection breaks down, and his arm strength will help the Rams connect on a couple of deep passes; add Steven Jackson to the mix and the Rams get their second win. Take Rams.

Arizona at Tennessee (-2.5)

Last week: Cardinals beat Rams 21-13; Titans beat Texans 20-17.

The Titans are suddenly finding ways to win, and they'll be especially jacked up coming off of their fourth straight win. Against the Cardinals, look for RB Chris Johnson to rip off at least one big run in another big game.

The Titans will surrender some yards to the Cardinals but those will come from probable starter Matt Leinart as Kurt Warner may sit this one out with a concussion he suffered last week.

While the Cardinals at 5-0 away from home may prove to be a stern test for the Titans, the sudden resurgence of QB Vince Young coupled with posse Johnson and emerging star receiver Kenny Britt will allow the birds to point a finger at a culprit for their eventual defeat. Take Titans.

Kansas City at San Diego (-13.5)

Last week: Chiefs beat Steelers 27-24; Chargers beat Broncos 32-3.

This game is the proverbial trap, despite the warning signs that the Chiefs should not be taken lightly. The Chargers have a lot to deal with this week, including cornerback Antonio Cromartie's implication in a Monday morning bar fight, a charity event on Tuesday and downtown celebration of the team's 50th anniversary on Friday.

The Chargers have in the past been prone to believing their own hype, but this seems to be a focused group intent on finally being the one that lives up to the billing. They are playing better seemingly every week but not enough to win by two TD's. Take points and Chiefs.

Jacksonville at San Francisco (-3.5)

Last week: Jaguars beat Bills 18-15; 49ers lost to Packers 30-24.

Sunday's matchup features two teams led by former NFL linebackers. As you would expect, each coach, Jack Del Rio and Mike Singletary, points to solid defense and physical offense as the formula for success.

Del Rio's Jaguars, however, have been closer to the mark in recent weeks. Singletary and the 49ers were let down by their defense Sunday and are still trying to pin down an offensive philosophy. Look for the Jaguars, who have the league's sixth-ranked rushing offense and a good shot at a wild-card spot, to win a close game. Take Jaguars.

My upset of the week: 49ers (+6.5) at Packers.

My no-brainer of the week: Steelers (-9.5) at Chiefs.

MY RECORD AGAINST THE SPREAD:

Last week: 8-7.

Season: 76-68.

Miami at Carolina (-2.5)

Last week: Dolphins beat Buccaneer 25-23; Panthers beat Falcons 28-19.

On the surface, a short-week matchup between two hurting 4-5 teams might not sound like much, but there's plenty of under-the-surface intrigue.

First off, the Dolphins offense might have a little extra motivation this week even without RB Ronnie Brown (ankle), since offensive coordinator Dan Henning was fired by Panthers coach John Fox after the 2006 season, despite a five-year run that included a trip to the Super Bowl and two NFC championship games. Since then, Henning's dipped into the bag of tricks to run the Dolphins Wildcat, and the Panthers rush defense has been leaky lately.

The big question is how effective the Wildcat will be without Brown. On one hand, the Dolphins will be without their most dynamic player. But that presents a challenge for the Panthers since it's uncertain how Miami will use Ricky Williams and/or Pat White in the backfield.

Henning's presence in Miami also could make it an interesting night for Panthers QB Jake Delhomme. Delhomme has played three clean games after throwing 13 interceptions in the first six, but Henning knows his game inside out, having groomed him from career backup to serviceable starter.

The Panthers are trying to continue a three-week stretch of solid play but hope to end the string of key losses to injury. LB Thomas Davis and LT Jordan Gross were each lost for the season the last two games, leaving the Panthers scrambling to fill holes. LB Landon Johnson played capably last week, but losing Gross causes Carolina to overturn its entire line, as LG Travelle Wharton kicks outside and they bring in young Mackenzy Bernadeau to play guard.

The resurgence of Ricky Williams has quietly been one of the NFL's most compelling stories this season. Partly because he's in a backup role to Ronnie Brown -- and partly because he avoids the media as much as possible -- Williams' 5.3 yards per carry this year have gone mostly unnoticed. That could change Thursday, when Williams will start over Brown, who injured his foot Sunday against the Bucs. But if Miami is going to win its second consecutive game, Williams will need to continue to have similarly high production with more carries. Through nine games, he's averaging 11.66 carries each week. This time around, he'll probably see a workload twice as heavy. How he handles it should dictate the Dolphins' success or failure.

On defense for the Dolphins linebacker Joey Porter was supposed to be missed. After coach Tony Sparano benched him for Sunday's game against the Bucs, it was supposed to put Miami in even deeper disarray as it pertained to the ability to put pressure on quarterback Josh Freeman. But in the absence of Porter, who has just 2.5 sacks this season, linebackers Cameron Wake, Charlie Anderson and Matt Roth provided a better pass rush by committee than the Dolphins have had in weeks. Porter is expected to return to action Thursday, but coach Tony Sparano says he expects a rotation of players at the position to continue. If the Dolphins want to rattle Delhomme, who has been sacked 16 times this year, they'll need to prove Sunday's game wasn't just the result of facing a rookie quarterback. And with Porter back in the lineup, it will be interesting to see if his presence helps or hurts what Miami has going.

If the Dolphins want to continue seeing development from second-year quarterback Chad Henne, they need more consistency from the players he's throwing to. Henne has looked decent during his first six games as a starter, but his ascension to the next level may be limited by drops by his receivers. Nobody -- not even wide receiver Davone Bess, who has the best hands on the team -- has been immune from the recent issues. Greg Camarillo, Ted Ginn Jr. and Brian Hartline are all guilty of an occasional miss. And with Brown not fueling the running game, wide receivers will have an even greater responsibility to do a better job with the passing attack.

The Panthers let Delhomme call his own plays in the no-huddle last week against the Falcons, and it's no coincidence that their passing game flourished for the first time this season. This came two weeks after the coaches agreed to back off the mechanical micro-managing of his game. He's at his best when he can get into a rhythm, and that's what no-huddle and two-minute situations allow him.

Defending the run is suddenly an issue for the Panthers. They allowed 176 yards on the ground last week to Atlanta, and it looks like teams are starting to single-block NT Hollis Thomas with impunity. DE Julius Peppers didn't start against the Falcons because of a broken hand, and that, along with Davis' absence, also hurts the run defense.

Because of the injury absences, the Panthers played a pretty bland defense against the Falcons. Dolphins QB Chad Henne is smart enough to find his spots, but they need to rattle him a bit with some blitzes. They'll mix up a few coverage looks, but they simply may not have the personnel to play aggressively without Davis on the field.

Both teams are dealing with issues at the moment, but the Panthers are closer to having anything resembling momentum. The Panthers are getting Delhomme back on track just in time, because the Dolphins can be passed on. The Panthers have struggled in the past with 3-4 looks, and a reconfigured line has to make sure the QB stays on his feet. If so, he should be able to find Steve Smith again. The running games might be a wash, because the Dolphins run D is solid, but the Panthers could limit what Miami does without Brown. In the end, the Panthers just appear to be playing better football, and seem better stocked to overcome the injury absences. Take Panthers.

Indianapolis at Baltimore (-.5)

Last week: Colts beat Patriots 35-34; Ravens beat Browns 16-0.

At 5-4, the Ravens still have playoff ambitions, but they have three tough games coming up. If the Ravens can beat Indianapolis, the road to the postseason becomes much easier. After the Colts, Steelers and Packers, the schedule becomes softer with opponents like Oakland, Chicago and Detroit remaining.

The Colts rallied from 17 points down to beat rival New England on Sunday night. It was a tough game both mentally and physically. The Ravens are even more physical than the Patriots. On Sunday, the Colts will be on the road against a team desperate for a win. Fans in Baltimore still haven't forgotten how the Colts snuck out of town in 1983. Indianapolis will have to bring its A-game -- if it has enough left.

The Colts have won the last six meetings between these two teams -- with Peyton Manning carving up the Baltimore defense in several of those matchups -- and the Ravens are tired of hearing about it. Furthermore, Indianapolis has won 18 consecutive regular-season games. It would do a lot for the Ravens' confidence, as well as the psyche of Baltimore fans, if those streaks ended.

Linebacker Ray Lewis and safety Ed Reed spearhead a big-play defense that forces the issue. But that leaves the defense exposed to big plays. Manning has been masterful at deciphering the Ravens' defensive intent, picking his spots and striking. That must continue. Manning will make some bad plays, but he must counter those with good ones to wide receiver Reggie Wayne and tight end Dallas Clark.

Behind Manning, RB Joseph Addai must have a big day but it figures to be tough sledding against the Ravens' sixth-ranked rushing defense, but it's imperative that Manning stick with his veteran running back. And that doesn't necessarily mean handing him the football. Addai is one of the league's better pass-catching backs and ranks fourth on the team with 36 receptions. Addai could be effective being used as a check-down option against the Ravens' aggressive defense.

After Manning, TE Dallas Clark is the Colts' second biggest playmaker on offense. Unfortunately for the Ravens, they don't have a linebacker who can cover Clark downfield. The Ravens will either put a safety on Clark or bracket him with a linebacker and safety. Regardless, Clark cannot be allowed to roam the middle of the field.

The Ravens possess a potent tandem in running backs Ray Rice and Willis McGahee. Given the chance, quarterback Joe Flacco will spend much of his day turning and handing off. The Colts cannot allow that. If they can limit the Ravens' ground game, they can get after Flacco, who has been susceptible to the pass rush (20 sacks) and turnovers (seven interceptions).

The Ravens have to utilize the three-pronged approach they used last season at running back. Baltimore's defense isn't what it used to be, and Manning will shoot down the Ravens' cornerbacks. The only way to shut down Indianapolis's offense is to give the Colts a steady diet of McGahee, Rice and Le'Ron McClain.

The Ravens will be without Pro Bowl defensive end Terrell Suggs (knee sprain), which changes the game plan of coordinator Greg Mattison. Mattison is old school, and he likes to get pressure with the basic four- or five-man front. But without Suggs, the Ravens are going to have to move around, shift alignments and create mismatches. They must bring pressure off the edges and up the middle, incorporating corners and safety blitzes, as well.

If Manning steps on the field, he will have success against the Ravens, because their secondary is horrendous. If the Ravens can't run the ball and control the time of possession, Manning could put up 30 or 40 points. Baltimore has to get pressure on Manning, but that has been a problem for the team all season. To win, the Ravens have to play a nearly perfect game, or Manning has to leave with an injury. Take Colts.

Cleveland at Detroit (-3.5)

Last week: Browns lost to Ravens 16-0; Lions lost to Vikings 27-10.

If you're into watching the development of young quarterbacks, this is the game for you. The Lions have the draft's top overall pick in rookie Matthew Stafford while the Browns counter with Brady Quinn, who has one more career start than Stafford.

Quinn threw everything short against the Ravens, but he'll likely open it up against Detroit's porous secondary. Stafford, meanwhile, has no problem in airing it out. Still, both offenses have issues with consistency and are struggling to score. The first team to 17 points might win its second game of the season.

The Lions have several rookies who are progressing well, but must keep improving at a rapid clip. They include tight end Brandon Pettigrew, safety Louis Delmas and linebacker Deandre Levy. The Lions need all three players to become not just starters, but playmakers if they're going to approach respectability in the near future.

Quinn has a resilient, self-assured nature, but doubts have seeped in as his career record as a starter has dipped to 1-6. Coach Eric Mangini has said Quinn will make his second consecutive start. However, he is coming off an awful Monday night game in which Baltimore's pass rush for the most part was in his face by the time he planted.

The best way to rebuild Quinn's confidence would be to give him better protection. That should be doable against a defense with a tepid pass rush, a big reason Detroit is 32nd in allowing 271.7 passing yards a game. It's hardly a guarantee, in that the Browns are 32nd in pass offense at 116.2. The disconnection between Quinn and offensive coordinator Brian Daboll must be fixed.

The Browns have played one of the NFL's more difficult schedules, with all eight of their losses coming to teams in the postseason hunt. Here's a chance to prove they aren't the laughingstock they have looked like in the four losses that followed a poorly played victory at Buffalo.

Four of the last seven opponents the Browns faced have defenses ranked 23rd or lower, starting with the No. 31 Lions. If the offense's psyche isn't shattered, it could start to lay a foundation for next season and win a game. But this is a matchup of fragile psyches. The Browns have lost 14 of their past 15. The Lions have lost 24 of 25 since the start of the 2008 season.

Detroit's offense must handle nose tackle Shaun Rogers to establish a running game. That will be essential to keep the pass pressure (and the blitzes) off Stafford. The job will be made more difficult with the expected loss of RG Stephen Peterman to a right ankle injury. Peterman has the size and tenacity to help neutralize Rogers.

Coaches must dump quick passes to Calvin Johnson from the offense because they aren't working. It was a good concept, trying to get the ball in his hands as much as possible, but with opponents geared to stop him, Johnson is getting drilled as soon as he catches it. The offense would be better off trying to hit Johnson downfield where he's more at home trying to out-position cornerbacks.

The loser of this game will truly be at the bottom -- and in position to get the first pick of the 2010 draft. With a loss, the Lions, who have already lost to the Rams at home, would cement their status as the NFL's worst team. A loss would also mean Detroit would be 2-32 in its past 34 games -- the worst losing stretch of any team in league history. While the Lions are struggling every bit as much as the Browns on the field, they don't have the same off-the-field negativity dogging them. Take Lions.

 San Diego at Denver (+2.5)

Last week: Chargers beat Eagles 31-23; Broncos lost to Redskins 27-17.

This game will go a long way in deciding the AFC West. If the Broncos win, they'll have a one-game lead and the tiebreaker based on a season sweep. If the Chargers win, it could be a huge blow to a Broncos team that has lost a three-and-a-half game lead in the division in four weeks.

The Broncos can't afford a fourth straight loss. They have had plenty of problems lately, which are compounded by a key injury to quarterback Kyle Orton. Orton has an ankle injury that knocked him out of last week's game. The Broncos are unsure what exactly Orton can give them if he plays this week, but they need him in a huge divisional game.

Bronco's back up QB Chris Simms provided almost nothing off the bench in the second half against Washington. He should be better with a full week of practice with the first-team offense, if he has to play. The Broncos preference is having a somewhat healthy Kyle Orton under center. Orton isn't a very mobile quarterback and the injury is to his plant leg, so if he can manage the pain he shouldn't be affected too much.

San Diego is finally showing why it was a trendy preseason pick to make noise in the AFC this year. Since losing the Broncos, the Chargers have won four in a row. If San Diego comes into Denver and beats a Broncos team that already scored a convincing win in the season series, it will be a sign that the AFC needs to take notice after writing off the Chargers weeks ago.

It's been a much safer time to be Philip Rivers lately. The last time he was sacked more than twice in a game or hit consistently was when the Chargers played the Broncos on Oct. 19. That night, Denver dropped him four times in the second half and five times total. Rivers has a knack for feeling pressure and has avoided several sacks on his own, but as much as Eddie Royal's two kick returns for touchdowns hurt the Chargers in the first half last time, sacks on third down killed them late.

Yards after the catch helped Donovan McNabb to 450 yards passing last week against the Chargers, and the Broncos got an awful lot of extra yardage in their October game in San Diego, including a huge 52-yard gain by Tony Sheffler that set up a game-sealing touchdown. The Chargers are tackling better than they did that night, but against the Eagles they blew their assignments in underneath zone coverage too many times. The Broncos have the weapons to make them pay for a repeat of that.

The Broncos are still plus-three in takeaway ratio, but a big difference between their 6-0 start and 0-3 stretch since their bye week is their minuns-4 in takeaways in the three losses. After committing five turnovers their first six games, they've committed six the last three games. A third-quarter sack-fumble at midfield halted a potential go-ahead drive for the Chargers and led to a Broncos field goal in their last meeting. The Chargers are plus-two in turnovers, but have not been creating enough lately.

The Broncos can't afford to let its defense stay on the field too long in the second half for a fourth straight week. Although the defense deserves some blame for not being better on third down recently, that unit would be helped out immensely if the offense could move the ball. Denver got one first down in the final 24 minutes of its loss at Washington.

In the first meeting, Rivers had time in the first half and was very efficient. The Broncos added some different pressure packages in the second half and were able to put heat on Rivers, which was a big factor in the win. The Chargers will be prepared better this week, but the Broncos still need to get to the quarterback.

The Broncos haven't looked very good for three weeks. Last week, losing Kyle Orton at the end of the first half ruined their chances of winning. As long as Orton can play, Denver has a good chance to get back on track. The defense needs to stop the run and San Diego hasn't run it well all year and make sure Philip Rivers doesn't have too long to throw. The Broncos beat the Chargers pretty easily at San Diego on Oct. 19 but the Broncos have suddenly lost their swagger while the Chargers have found theirs. Take Chargers.

NY Jets at New England (-10.5)

Last week: Jets lost to Jaguars 24-22; Patriots lost to Colts 35-34.

The debate on whether Bill Belichick should've gone for it on 4th-and-2 has raged for days, and we will see if the Patriots can shake off a crushing defeat. National and local pundits used Belichick as a punching bag. Meanwhile, the players took two days off and stayed out of sight, trying to get over a brutal loss to the Colts. Can the Pats refocus in time to gear up for the Jets? Figure it won't take much for a divisional battle.

Will Rex Ryan's tears finally be of joy? Early on, the Jets were an NFL feel-good story, a team with a brash coach and players who backed it up. That was a long time ago. With one win in the last six, Ryan has attempted everything to fix the problem. A week off for a bye didn't help. Neither did crying while addressing the team, as Ryan did last week. Can the Jets overcome an inconsistent quarterback and a suddenly toothless defense to turn their season around?

Plus, check out if this becomes a real race in the AFC East: With a win over the Dolphins two weeks ago, the Pats took a sizeable lead in their own division. But the loss to the Colts made it a two-game advantage. If the Jets can upset the Patriots, just one game will separate the two teams. The Jets may have issues, and they may be in a recent swoon. But a win Sunday changes their season, taking it on a 180 degree turn. Games in the East are always intense .. and the trash-talking only adds to it.

Yes, rookie QB Mark Sanchez will have help from offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer in that chess match, but it will be up to Sanchez to make the right checks at the line and the correct reads once he drops back to pass. Sanchez successfully ran a low-risk passing game in the first meeting, but was helped by the fact that Belichick chose to play very vanilla on defense, very rarely sending extra pressure. He figures to mix things up a lot more this time.

The missing ingredient for New England in the first meeting was slot receiver Wes Welker, who sat out with a knee injury. He's healthy now and his presence should prevent the Jets from giving too much extra help on WR Randy Moss. Jacksonville found success against the Jets on slants over the middle, and Welker runs those routes quite well.

 Welker missed all of game 1 vs. the Jets with a knee injury, and the result was a tough loss. Will the NFL's third-most productive receiver make that much of a difference? He better. The Jets secondary can be exploited, particularly with all their blitzes. Welker can find holes in a defense, and he'll have to make the Jets pay.

One thing missing from the Jets' arsenal this season has been the long kickoff return. Leon Washington is out for the season with a compound fracture of his right leg, and his longest return in 2009 was only 43 yards. If Justin Miller cannot regain the form he had in his first tour of duty with the Jets, New York will have to cause a turnover or two to swing the field-position battle in its favor and make Tom Brady & Co. work for their points.

They can say what they want, but it's likely that some members of the Patriots defense felt slighted with Belichick's decision to put the ball in the offense's hands against the Colts. But the truth is, they had allowed Peyton Manning to do what he wanted, especially late. If the defensive players want more respect, they must begin earning it this week. Quarterback Mark Sanchez may not make it easy, but there will be opportunities to capitalize on rookie mistakes.

Despite their differing places in the standings, the Patriots and the Jets aren't at all in spots foreign to one another. Both teams are scuffling on the heels of a tough loss that never should've taken place. Yet Ryan's tears may not be the answer to a bounce-back Sunday. Back-to-back losses are a rarity for the Patriots, and the fact that it's the Jets they are facing only makes it easier. With another crack at a rookie quarterback in Sanchez, Belichick should have something interesting cooked up. And Brady should have a better handle on the Jets' complex blitzing scheme. Oh, and don't think the Pats have forgotten all the talking the Jets did last time. This Sunday, New York pays but just the right amount. Take points and Jets.

Seattle at Minnesota (-10.5)

Last week: Seahawks lost to Cardinals 31-20; Vikings beat Lions 27-17.

The Vikings still haven't played a complete game this season, yet they're 8-1. That leaves them feeling confident about what they can do down the stretch. This week they'll continue trying to improve against a struggling opponent.

It's rare for an elite NFL team to go through a season without stumbling against an inferior opponent. The Vikings beat St. Louis and Detroit (twice) despite not playing their best. They need to make sure they don't slip against Seattle. There's every reason to believe they'll avoid the upset but the line is too great. Take points and Seahawks.

New Orleans at Tampa Bay (+11.5)

Last week: Saints beat Rams 28-23; Buccaneers lost to Dolphins 25-23.

On paper this game looks like an easy one for the unbeaten Saints. They clearly are the better team here, but they're coming off a bit of a toe-stub against the Rams. They'll be looking to get back on track.

Meanwhile, the Bucs are a different team with Josh Freeman leading the offense. They're more confident, even after falling behind. Their defense, though, remains a big weak spot. Even if the Bucs switch up and throw something different at Drew Brees, it probably won't be enough to stop him. Take Saints.

Atlanta at NY Giants (-6.5)

Last week: Falcons lost to Panthers 28-19; Giants lost to Eagles two weeks ago 40-17.

Both teams are desperate to stop the bleeding and start winning again, but the Giants, coming off their bye week and riding a four-game skid, are at home and probably need the win more. The return to health of LB Michael Boley, T Chris Canty and cornerback Aaron Ross should help fortify a defense that has disappointed.

Plus, playing consecutive road games is a difficult assignment for the Falcons, who are 1-4 away from home this season. The loss of RB Michael Turner would be a huge blow and would put too much of a burden on Matt Ryan. Eli Manning played well in his last outing, a loss to the Chargers, and should be successful in this game as long as he limits turnovers. Carefully take Giants.

Washington at Dallas (-10.5)

Last week: Redskins beat Broncos 27-17; Cowboys lost to Packers 17-7.

The win over Denver ended a four-game losing streak and gives the Redskins fleeting hope for the season, while the Cowboys are trying to get back in the win column after Green Bay ended their four-game winning streak.

Indeed, after a pathetic offensive performance against Green Bay, and with a new starting right tackle, the Cowboys will attempt to establish their dominance on both lines of scrimmage. Washington's offense can't score enough points to keep up but will keep it close enough. Take points and Redskins.

Pittsburgh at Kansas City (+9.5)

Last week: Steelers lost to Bengals 18-12; Chiefs beat Raiders 16-10.

The trap game issue aside, the Steelers didn't become the program they are by losing to teams like Kansas City. Still, it's interesting to note that lesser Pittsburgh opponents like Cleveland and Detroit were able to hang in during their games against the Steelers. That's probably the best Kansas City can hope for.

Despite last week's win in Oakland, the Chiefs have too many issues to think they can realistically compete with Pittsburgh. They've been blown out by many of the stronger opponents they've played and the game against the Steelers has a similar feel. If Pittsburgh comes to Arrowhead Stadium with its best game, there's little the Chiefs can do to have any say in the outcome. Take Steelers.

Buffalo at Jacksonville (-8.5)

Last week: Bills lost to Titans 41-17; Jaguars beat Jets 24-22.

These teams seem to be headed in opposite directions. Jacksonville finally seems to be peaking on both sides of the ball with the symbiotic run and pass game finally gelling, and the club's decision to revert back to the 4-3 paying dividends. The Jaguars are 3-1 at home this season, and highly motivated to keep their playoff hopes alive.

The Bills, meanwhile, appear to be regressing, due primarily to injuries. The offensive line is in disarray, but the situation on defense might be even worse. Every member of Buffalo's starting secondary last week against Tennessee wasn't an opening-day starter. The club has also struggled with injuries at linebacker and on the defensive line.

Buffalo's slide will likely continue- even with a new coach at the helm- against the red-hot Jags. Look for Jacksonville to shorten the game by pounding the Bills with a heavy dose of Maurice Jones-Drew. Take Jaguars.

San Francisco at Green Bay (-6.5)

Last week: 49ers beat Bears 10-6; Packers beat Cowboys 17-7.

How well the Packers contain RB Frank Gore and tight end Vernon Davis will determine how this game goes. The 49ers' defense will give Green Bay's leaky offensive line fits, and so it should be a defensive battle.

Playing at home will help the Packers, but it's no guarantee for victory, especially considering how well the 49ers played at Houston and Indianapolis. Expect a tight game. Take 49ers.

Arizona at St-Louis (+8.5)

Last week: Cardinals beat Seahawks 31-20; Rams lost to Saints 28-23.

The Rams haven't defeated the Cardinals in St. Louis since the 2004 season. Worst yet, the Cardinals have averaged 35 points a game in those four consecutive victories. Although it looks like the 1-7 Rams are making progress, they don't have enough talent on either side of the ball to end their losing ways against Arizona. The Cardinals can put more distance between themselves and the rest of the NFC West with a victory Sunday. Take Cardinals.

Cincinnati at Oakland (+9.5)

Last week: Bengals beat Steelers 18-12; Raiders lost to Chiefs 16-10.

The Raiders are fresh from a loss to one of the league's worst teams (Kansas City)and in the middle of a quarterback controversy involving the player they envisioned as their franchise savior (Russel) when they selected him as the No. 1 pick in the 2007 NFL draft.

The Bengals are riding high on the heels of beating the defending Super Bowl champion Pittsburgh Steelers for the second time this season. The Bengals are too well-rounded for the Raiders to match up with for an entire game. Look for the Bengals to overwhelm the Raiders offensively and defensively and get their first win ever at the Oakland Coliseum. Take Bengals.

Philadelphia at Chicago (+2.5)

Last week: Eagles lost to Chargers 31-23; Bears lost to 49ers 10-6.

Because the Eagles are rather one-dimensional without a solid running game with Brian Westbrook's uncertain status, the Bears have no running game either, and both teams have strong-armed quarterbacks, this is a good matchup. The stakes make it all the more interesting. As a result, it should be a tightly fought game. The Bears have had a tendency toward big penalties and dumb mistakes lately, so expect something like this to prove costly late in the game. Take Eagles.

Tennessee at Houston (-4.5)

Last week: Titans beat Bills 41-17; Texans beat Bills two weeks ago 31-10.

If the Texans are going to be a legitimate playoff contender for the first time, they must defeat the Titans. If they do, they host Indianapolis in the next game and visit Jacksonville the week after that. If the Texans get off to another slow start and commit turnovers in the first quarter, the Titans might jump on them. Expect it to be a physical game with a lot of trash talking. The Texans will limit RB Chris Johnson to fewer than 100 yards. Young will be forced to throw more than he wants. Take Texans.

As I mentioned last week, Week 9 featured six matchups with spreads over 8 ½ points. Only the Falcons and Seahawks managed to cover their respective spreads, although it was not easy for these two squads as the Falcons survived a late drive by the Redskins and the Seahawks scored with only 22 ticks left on the clock –interception return- against the hapless Lions.

The Colts almost needed overtime to crown a winner and the Saints were down 14-0 after the first quarter against the Panthers.  

However, week 9 was the tale of the falling favourites. I recognize that you could have bestowed the favourite hat on any team comprised in 5 of these 6 matchups but Green Bay losing by 10 to winless Tampa Bay and to a 21 year old rookie QB is quite the aberration.  

With so many bad teams roaming through the league (Buccs, Rams, Lions, Browns, Bills, Raiders), it is no wonder Week 10 offer more of the same with 5 matchups at 8 ½  spreads and beyond. Good Luck!

My upset of the week: Atlanta(-1.5) at Carolina.

My no-brainer of the week: Baltimore (-10.5) at Cleveland.

My record against the spread:

Last week: 8-5.

Season: 68-61.

Chicago at San Francisco (-2.5)

Last week: Bears lost to Cardinals 41-21; 49ers lost to Titans 34-27.

The NFL opens its stretch of Thursday night games with this game. It's an 8:20 ET start from San Francisco.

Why to watch on Thursday night? For the history. Mike Singletary played 11 years for the Bears and was the soul of a defense that carried the team to Super Bowl victory in 1985. When Singletary decided he wanted to get into coaching, he was living in Chicago and his first call was to then-Bears coach Dick Jauron. Jauron told him there was nothing available, so Singletary joined the Ravens staff. Thursday's game will be Singletary's first against his former team.

There's more history. Two years ago, the Bears levied tampering charges against the 49ers for pursuing linebacker Lance Briggs, who was in the midst of a contract dispute with the Bears. The NFL ruled against the 49ers, and they were docked a fifth-round pick in the 2008 draft. There is no love lost between the two front offices as a result of the saga.  

Both teams' passing games have sputtered, but both feature a promising rookie wideout. Speedster Johnnie Knox wasn't a big name in the draft when the Bears took him in the fifth round out of Abilene Christian. However, Knox has caught 28 passes and scored three touchdowns, including one for 68 yards.

Meanwhile, the 49ers' Michael Crabtree is establishing himself as Alex Smith's most reliable target. Crabtree, the 10th overall pick, has 14 catches in his first three games after a contentious holdout but is looking for his first touchdown catch.

The Bear's defensive woes against Cincinnati and Arizona came to a head on third down and in the red zone. The situation snowballed, and the defense got into a bad habit of backing up and accepting early-game punishment. The third down defense had been the NFL's best in Lovie Smith's first five years. No more: Only seven teams are worse than the Bears' 58 percent prevention rate. And, only the Giants are worse preventing TDs in the red zone.

Without Brian Urlacher and with Tommie Harris struggling the past few games, Briggs is the chief defensive weapon. The defense excels when he's able to attack the run and occasionally blitz. The Bears need Briggs in the backfield, blowing up run blocking schemes to prevent RB Frank Gore from doing what he did to the Seahawks earlier this season -- a couple of 80-yard runs.

When the game plan has QB Jay Cutler throwing downfield at the start, disaster develops. Last week screen passes to Matt Forte took shape and throws to TE Greg Olsen started to look like coaches have wanted all season. Cutler must look for short routes to Devin Hester and other receivers, hoping to break them for longer gains, and then look downfield more for Hester and Johnny Knox. That approach worked against Seattle, Pittsburgh, Detroit and Cleveland.

The 49ers' offense operated out of the shotgun 55 percent of the time Sunday against Tennessee, and were it not for four turnovers, the strategy would have worked. Coaches went in that direction in large part because the Titans entered the game with the NFL's worst pass defense. The Bears have a higher ranking, but their secondary is riddled and vulnerable to an air attack.

The 49ers are among the NFL's worst third-down teams. The issue, however, begins on first down when running plays are frequently stuffed for no gain or minimal yards. Coaches did a better job of switching up their approach against the Titans by passing more on first down and running out of the shotgun. They must try to keep the Bears off balance as well.

The defense sacked Vince Young once Sunday. If they give Cutler too much time, he'll pick the defense apart. The problem is that the 49ers aren't getting any pressure from the edge. Outside linebacker Parys Haralson led the team in sacks last season -- he has one this season, and it came in Week 1.

These underperforming teams believe they can make the playoffs, but both must get on serious winning streaks to achieve their goals. The Bears offense has been able to gain huge chunks of yardage, but their defense has been giving up even bigger chunks of late. How well an injury-riddled unit can recover on a short week will determine the outcome.

The 49ers, meanwhile, are diversifying their too-simple offense, but they have been making too many mistakes to win. Take Bears.

Buffalo at Tennessee (-6.5)

Last week: Bills lost to Texans two weeks ago 31-10; Titans beat 49ers 34-27.

Vikings running back Adrian Peterson gets far more attention, but Titans running back Chris Johnson might be the most exciting player going in the NFL right now. Johnson has electrifying speed and is a threat to break one on any play. He has touchdown runs of 89 and 91 yards in the first 8 games and is averaging a NFL-best 6.7 yards per carry. He could have a huge day against Buffalo -- the Bills are 32nd in the NFL in run defense, allowing 173.6 yards per game.

It's probably a matter of too-little, too-late for the Titans, but after a 0-6 start they're looking more like the team that finished with the NFL's best record at 13-3 in 2008. And with a back-up quarterback in Vince Young leading the way. The Titans have put together back-to-back wins since Young replaced starter Kerry Collins after the bye, and they're playing with more energy on both sides of the football. No 0-6 team has ever made the playoffs, but the Titans think they can get on a roll like they did in 2002, when they started 1-4 and won 10 of 11 to make the playoffs. We'll see.

Trent Edwards is expected to return after missing the last two games with a concussion. When he was playing, he looked tentative and didn't display the level of self-assurance that's needed to be effective. The Titans have the NFL's lowest-rated pass defense, so if the offensive line holds up, Edwards can complete some passes and start feeling good about himself again. After all, a confident quarterback tends to be a productive one.

The Bills' offensive woes are directly related to their inability to keep drives alive. They are 30th in the NFL in third-down conversion percentage and 31st in average time of possession per game. The Bills' defense has been getting worn down by good running games like the Titans possess. The only way that changes is if the offense moves the chains and puts points on the board.

QB Vince Young has played efficiently since returning to the starting lineup. But he's benefited greatly from a strong running game spearheaded by explosive Chris Johnson, the NFL's rushing leader. The Bills are last in the NFL against the run, allowing at least 200 yards three times. Young isn't a very accurate passer, so look for the Bills to bring an eighth defender in the box to try to take away Johnson and put Young in situations where he has to make plays with his arm.

 Young hasn't put up huge numbers in his first two starts, but he's been effective and made good decisions. He's not turning the ball over with interceptions like he did as a starter in 2008, when he threw 17 picks. In two starts, he still hasn't thrown an interception. If Young doesn't force the football the Titans like their chances with a run game that can control the football, and the clock.

 Johnson has been on a roll of late, and has 959 yards already on the season at the halfway point. He has three 100-yard games already, and his success in the past two games has taken the pressure off of Young. If Johnson can run against the 32nd ranked Buffalo run defense, it should allow Young to pick his spots and make plays downfield as well, something he did in a win at San Francisco on Sunday.

In the past two weeks the Titans have turned up the heat, with defensive coordinator Chuck Cecil applying more pressure with blitzes. It's led to more sacks, and turnovers by the defense. The Titans have more interceptions in the past two weeks (5) than the previous six weeks combined (4). They'll try and disrupt the Bills passing game, and not allow quarterback Trent Edwards to get comfortable.

The Titans look like a different team in the past two weeks. They're causing turnovers, not giving the ball away, and they're playing much more solid across the board. The Bills, on the other hand, have been inconsistent during the first half of the season. The Titans will be able to run the ball against the Bills with Johnson, and on defense keep Edwards on his heels. The result will be a third straight win for the Titans. Take Titans.

Cincinnati at Pittsburgh (-6.5)

Last week: Bengals beat Ravens 17-7; Steelers beat Broncos 28-10.

The Steelers haven't played a game against the Bengals with this much on the line since a wild-card playoff victory in Cincinnati in 2005. Both teams are 6-2 and tied for the top spot in the AFC, but the Bengals won the first meeting, 23-20, after scoring 14 points in the final seven minutes. That game ended the Steelers' eight-game winning streak in Paul Brown Stadium. Since then, the Steelers have won five in a row, the second longest streak in the league.

They have not lost at Heinz Field since November, 2008, against the Indianapolis Colts, a span of 10 games, including playoffs. But the Bengals are 3-0 on the road and 4-0 in the AFC North this season. They have a chance to sweep both the Ravens and Steelers in the same season.

The game is also a matchup of top running backs -- players who have been among the league's most productive rushers the past five games. Rashard Mendenhall is averaging 105.6 yards per game since replacing Willie Parker as the starter five games ago and is coming off a game in which he rushed for 155 yards on 22 carries against the Broncos' No. 1-ranked defense. Cincinnati's Cedric Benson has three 100-yard games in his last four outings, two of which came against the Baltimore Ravens. Curiously, the Bengals have not had a running back gain over 100 yards against the Steelers since Rudi Johnson in October, 2004, a span of 11 games.

When Benson isn't hammering away between the tackles for valuable yardage in the ground game, he must help pick up the Steelers' blitz coming from all directions. Benson is a complete back who can run, catch and block. His blocking ability will be tested as the Bengals seek a series sweep against Pittsburgh.

The Steelers have not allowed a 100-yard rusher in 30 consecutive games, counting playoffs, but Benson had 76 yards on 16 carries against them in the first meeting -- the most the Steelers have allowed an opposing back this season. Since then, he has rushed for more than 100 yards in three of his past four games.

Defensively for the Bengals, pressuring Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger isn't the problem. Sacking him is. Ben is a big, mobile, athletic QB with great vision and arm strength. He keeps plays alive with his feet, sheds tacklers with his size and strength, and keeps his eyes focused downfield for receivers breaking open on the scramble drill. DTs Domata Peko and Tank Johnson must get a solid push up the middle, and ends Robert Geathers and Jonathan Fanene must keep Roethlisberger contained to the pocket. The goal is to hit him, hold on and hope help arrives quickly.

As much as the Steelers like to run the ball with physicality, their WR corps of Hines Ward, Santonio Holmes and Mike Wallace has emerged as a true strength. If the Bengals' front seven doesn't apply the necessary pressure up front, the secondary will be forced to cover longer, and that will likely spell doom for the Bengals. However, if the pressure is there, CBs Leon Hall and Johnathan Joseph will make quicker breaks on the ball, giving the Bengals an opportunity to create turnovers.

In five games as a starter, Mendenhall has rushed for 528 yards and is averaging 5.73 yards per carry. The only back among the NFL's top 30 rushers with a better yards-per-carry average is Tennessee's Chris Johnson (6.7). But the Bengals' run defense has tightened with young linebackers Keith Rivers and Rey Maualuga.

The Steelers did not pressure Carson Palmer in the first meeting and instead allowed the Bengals quarterback to dink and dunk his way down the field on 85- and 71-yard scoring drives in the fourth quarter. Palmer was sacked only twice in that game. Since then, though, the Steelers have 18 sacks, 11 takeaways and three defensive touchdowns during their five-game winning streak.

This is a chance for the Bengals to take a stronghold in the division race because they would own virtually every tiebreaker against the Steelers. But don't forget that the Steelers dominated the first meeting between the teams, both offensively and defensively, until the Bengals mounted two long (85 and 71 yards), and late, scoring drives in the final quarter to win. Since then, the Steelers have changed the way they play defense, becoming more aggressive when the game is on the line, and it's no coincidence they have won five in a row since that defeat. However, the Bengals will keep it close. Take points and Bengals.

Dallas at Green Bay (+2.5)

Last week: Cowboys beat Eagles 20-16; Packers lost to Buccaneers 38-28.

The Cowboys are looking at a possible 9-2 start if they win Sunday. They have Washington and Oakland at home the following two weeks. The Cowboys, with a 5-1 record in the conference, also are in contention for home-field advantage in the NFC.

The Packers are desperate; if they don't win, Coach Mike McCarthy and general manager Ted Thompson could have their fates sealed. The Packers would be a long shot to make the playoffs if they lose the first of two straight at home.

The atmosphere at Lambeau Field should be electric, but if the Packers struggle, don't be surprised if disgruntled fans start to turn on them.

The Cowboys have scored just 12 TDs in 24 possessions inside the 20, tying them for 18th in the NFL. One problem with Dallas' red zone offense is its lack of an identity. It doesn't have a go-to player or a go-to play. The Cowboys tried consecutive slants to Roy Williams on one drive last week, without success; they used the Wildcat formation for the first time in the red zone to score on another. The Cowboys have plenty of weapons but haven't figured out how to maximize them. Could WR Miles Austin be the answer?

Since severely pulling his quadriceps against the Giants, RB Marion Barber has rushed 66 times for a 3.7-yard average, with two touchdowns. In the first two games of the season, he averaged 6.3 yards on 32 carries. The offense runs better when Barber can act as a battering ram. Since the injury, he has lacked explosion and burst as well as the power to consistently break tackles. Still, he carried five times for 29 yards in the fourth quarter to help the Cowboys close out Philadelphia. They need him to be that effective early in the game.

The Packers' run defense has been excellent, mostly on the strength of the lineman holding firm at the point of attack and not allowing runners to get a head of steam. This week the D-line will be facing a huge, tough offensive line that can pound on it all day long. Rookie tackle B.J. Raji must provide help as part of the line rotation. The unit can slow down Barber if it doesn't get pushed around.

If the Cowboy's defense can stop running back Ryan Grant and put the Packers in long-yardage situations on second and third down, it will then be able to exploit Green Bay's league-worst pass protection. Coach Wade Phillips likes to blitz, but he can be even more creative when he doesn't have to worry about a rushing threat.

The best way to beat the Cowboys isn't by Aaron Rodgers trying to complete passes on long-developing routes. It's by hitting slants, hitches and curls. When he does take seven-step drops, Rodgers has to consider dumping the ball off if there's nothing open right away. Given the way the line has played, there isn't enough time for second-window throws.

Assuming rookie T.J. Lang starts at left guard in place of Daryn Colledge, the offense will be able to run behind two power-blocking guards. The Cowboys are stout in the middle, but Grant has been warming up and veteran Ahman Green seems to be getting his legs under him. Those two must be used extensively to establish the team's toughness and keep the Cowboys' offense off the field.

As desperate as the Packers are, they just can't match the talent of the Cowboys and they're going to have a hard time dealing with them in the trenches. There's no reason to think quarterback Tony Romo will have any pressure on him, and he should be able to shred the secondary. Conversely, the Cowboys have too much up front for the Packers' struggling offensive line to handle. Take Cowboys.

Philadelphia at San Diego (-2.5)

Last week: Eagles lost to Cowboys 20-16; Chargers beat Giants 21-20.

This should be an air show. The Eagles were shut down for the most part against Dallas, but the previous week, they racked up 30 points before halftime thanks to four long touchdowns (two passing). The Chargers' offense is almost entirely predicated on moving the ball in large chunks via the pass. Since Philadelphia has run the ball just 190 times and the Chargers 182, chances are this game will feature a few throws.

Both teams are engaged in tight division races. The Broncos left San Diego on Oct. 19 with a 6-0 record and a 3 1/2-game AFC West lead. No team in the modern era has lost such a lead after beginning the season with six victories. And Denver could still hold on. But the Chargers (5-3) are just one game back now, having won three straight while the Broncos have lost two in a row. The Chargers could move into a tie as soon as this weekend (Denver plays at Washington) and would set up a huge showdown in Denver the following week with a victory over the Eagles. Meanwhile, Philadelphia is a game behind 6-2 Dallas in the NFC East after losing to the Cowboys this past Sunday.

Charger WR Vincent Jackson alone is worth the three hours of viewing time. His four 100-yard games and seven touchdowns this season are tied for the league lead; his 722 yards (on 42 catches) are third; and his 17.2 yards per catch are best among receivers with at least 35 receptions. At 6-5 and 230 with speed, he is a constant mismatch. The Eagles' secondary, coming off perhaps its worst game of the year against Dallas, is a little undersized to be entirely comfortable going against Jackson and fellow big men Antonio Gates and Malcom Floyd.

Those who say, "It's how you finish, not how you start," haven't seen the Eagles. This team proves time after time that it's practically incapable of pulling out close games in the fourth quarter -- they're 1-8-1 in their past 10 games decided by seven points or fewer. It's best if they jump out to the lead and keep adding to it.

The Eagles should take advantage of the season-ending injury to Chargers All-Pro nose tackle Jamal Williams by throwing a heavy dose of runs up the gut with LeSean McCoy, Brian Westbrook (if he's healthy) and fullback Leonard Weaver. The coaches recently have shown a willingness to get the run game going earlier, especially against defenses trying to pressure Donovan McNabb with exotic blitzes.

The Eagles' top receiver DeSean Jackson is coming off his second-worst game of the season, a two-catch, 29-yard effort against Dallas. He was double-teamed often, forcing  McNabb to look elsewhere in the passing game. The coaches can free up Jackson by putting him in motion, dialing up some quick screens or getting him the ball on end arounds. He's a threat to score every time he touches the ball. They just need to make sure he gets his touches.

The Chargers' pass defense was ranked 20th in the league after four games, allowing an average of 214.8 yards per game. Over the past four games, they are allowing a league-low 144.5 yards per game. Quentin Jammer and Antonio Cromartie have been shutting down receivers, the safety play is almost immeasurably better over the past month, and the Chargers are blitzing more and winning one-on-one battles up front.

The last time the Chargers faced a mobile quarterback like McNabb, Pittsburgh's Ben Roethlisberger scrambled around long enough to make play after play. Sometimes the coverage was good, but the pass rushers could not bring Roethlisberger down. They often had him in their grasp but couldn't finish. Even with five sacks last week at New York, the Chargers left a few on the field for the same reason, and Eli Manning is not nearly as elusive as McNabb.

The common thread in the Chargers' three consecutive victories is that they have not trailed by a lot early. That allows them to dictate to opposing offenses. While they appear committed to an aggressive defense going forward, that is much easier to execute with a lead. In their first four games, the Chargers had seven total sacks and were outscored 55-29 in the first half. In their past four games, they have 15 sacks and have outscored their opponents 68-34 in the first half. That is not a coincidence.

The Eagles have the kind of dynamic quarterback and offensive weapons that gave the Chargers fits earlier this season. But this is a different Chargers defense, playing with confidence and energy. Philadelphia will test the Chargers' offensive front as much as the Giants did. But Philip Rivers is great at getting rid of the ball and avoiding pressure. At home, on a roll and knowing what this game could mean, the Chargers should win. Take Chargers.

New England at Indianapolis (-2.5)

Last week: Patriots beat Dolphins 27-17; Colts beat Texans 20-17.

Where to start? It's only the latest chapter in the NFL's best rivalry and the latest Game of the Century. It's Peyton Manning vs. Tom Brady. It's the Colts, who are 8-0 and have won 17 straight regular-season games vs. the Patriots, who are 6-2 and own the two longest winning streaks in league history (21 from 2006-08, 18 from 2003-04). The showdown could have down-the-road playoff ramifications, even to the point of determining who earns the No. 1 seed. Or who doesn't.

The pregame hype likely will focus on the chess matching pitting Patriots coach Bill Belichick and Manning. Belichick is a master at determining a team's strength, taking it away and forcing the opposing QB to look elsewhere. Belichick had the upper hand earlier. Manning lost seven of his first eight meetings with the Belichick-led Patriots. But Manning is on a roll; having directed the Colts to wins in four of the past five meetings, including a 38-34 win in the AFC title game after the 2006 season.

Can the Colts' injury-depleted secondary adequately deal with Patriots WRs Randy Moss and Wes Welker and TE Ben Watson? Defensive coordinator Larry Coyer likely will have to dial up his nickel much of the evening, which will stress starting rookie CBs Jerraud Powers and Jacob Lacey and veterams Tim Jennings and T.J. Rushing.

Few have been able to stop Peyton Manning and the Colts offense since, oh, 1998. The Patriots have only done so once in the last six years, and that's in the 2004 AFC Title Game. Bill Belichick's squad must make Indianapolis earn every inch. The defensive backs must ignore his hand motioning and yelling and simply not let their receivers get behind them.

Manning is the league's No. 3-rated QB (105.2) and leads the league with a 70.6 completion percentage. Brady's 99.2 rating ranks sixth and his completion percentage (65.8) ranks eighth. Each is a surgeon when allowed to operate in a clean pocket. Each can struggle when he's forced to move around. The Colts must bring pressure with DEs Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis, along with an occasional blitz. The Patriots must get Manning off of his "spot," by mixing coverages and pressure packages.

In the backfield, Patriot's RB Laurence Maroney has had his three most productive games back-to-back-to-back, and his most recent was a gritty, 82-yard effort vs. the Dolphins. He's finally willing to gain the tough yards, sticking his nose between the tackles. If he can do that against a relatively soft front, the Pats may be able to play keep-away from Manning and company.

In the outfield, there's no better home-run hitter in the league than Moss. He's averaging 14.5 yards per catch and leads the Patriots with five TD catches. He'll be a matchup nightmare whether he lines up against Jerraud Powers or Jacob Lacey. Moss is 6-4 and plays like he's 6-7. Powers and Lacey, both rookies, are playing well but still will be 5-10 Sunday night.

Bob Sanders, the dynamic safety, is out with an injury, and so is cornerback Marlin Jackson. That leaves a defensive backfield on life support. Talented rookie Jerraud Powers has impressed at corner, but as Randy Moss showed last week with his torturing of Vontae Davis, he likes first-year players. Brady should just throw and throw until he's forced to stop.

It's hard to imagine the Colts continuing on their unbeaten path if they continue to lean so heavily on Manning. He's attempted 98 passes in his past two games, the second-most in consecutive games in his career. So much passing leads to an occasional sack and/or interception. Manning has been sacked five times in the past two games after going down only twice in the first six. Offensive coordinator Tom Moore must be committed to getting RBs Joseph Addai and Donald Brown more involved from the start, even if the yards come grudgingly.

The Patriots have won five of their last six, but are just 1-2 on the road this season with the lone winning coming against Tampa Bay. Tom Brady hasn't been nearly as effective away from home. The Colts have established Lucas Oil Stadium as a difficult place for opponents to thrive. They've won 10 straight at The Luke. Of course, it helps to have Peyton Manning running the show. He remains on top of his game, but the team is relying a bit too much on his right arm. Take Patriots.

Atlanta at Carolina (+1.5)

Last week: Falcons beat Redskins 31-17; Panthers lost to Saints 30-20.

Every intangible reason would tell you to go Panthers with this one, as the Falcons bounced back from their New Orleans loss with an impressive win last week, and the Panthers are backed into the corner, and playing perhaps their last meaningful game at home.

But that would overlook one important element to this game — the Falcons are just better. The Panthers defense lost a lot of its pop when WLB Thomas Davis was lost for the year, and a unit that's been faced to play high-intensity every snap (without a lot of help from the offense) may be about to break. But, Nevertheless, take Panthers.

Tampa Bay at Miami (-9.5)

Last week: Buccaneers beat Packers 38-28; Dolphins lost to Patriots 27-17.

No, this isn't the sexier matchup of the week. And no, it doesn't have any immediate implications. Instead, Sunday's game poses two potential scenarios. Another win by the Bucs could instill hope that they've perhaps stumbled into a decent option at quarterback. Or a win by the Dolphins could put them back on track to gain much-needed momentum heading into the season's second half.

Expect the latter scenario to play out. But also expect this game to generate about as much league-wide importance and excitement as a preseason game. Take Dolphins.

Detroit at Minnesota (-16.5)

Last week: Lions lost to Seahawks 32-20; Vikings beat Packers two weeks ago 38-26.

The Vikings are seeking their 17th win in the past 21 regular-season games. An 8-1 start would be their first since 1998, the season they went 15-1 and reached the NFC championship game before being upset by Atlanta.

With Favre at the helm, the Vikings believe this could be another special year. They must keep the momentum going by pounding Detroit, which hasn't won in Minnesota since 1997.

Anything less than a convincing win would be a disappointment for a Vikings team that's trying to keep pace with undefeated New Orleans for home-field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs. Look for Favre to expose a weak Lions secondary. Take Vikings.

Jacksonville at NY Jets (-6.5)

Last week: Jaguars beat Chiefs 24-21; Jets lost to Dolphins two weeks ago 30-25.