Conference Championship

January 23 2010 @ 14:53

Greetings Lasses and Lads.

MY RECORD AGAINST THE SPREAD:

Last week: 1-3

Season: 132-132.

NY Jets at Indianapolis (-7.5)

Last week: Jets beat Chargers 17-14; Colts beat Ravens 20-3.

The winningest team of the past decade is in an ideal position: It will be playing in front of what promises to be a thunderous Lucas Oil Stadium sellout crowd, one win away from a second Super Bowl appearance in the past four seasons. It's time for Peyton Manning and his experienced teammates to deliver.

Even though 18 players on the active roster are in the midst of their first postseason run, the pressure of the moment shouldn't be too great. The core leadership -- Manning, center Jeff Saturday, wide receiver Reggie Wayne, tight end Dallas Clark, linebacker Gary Brackett and defensive ends Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis -- has been here before.

Can the Colts finish off the Jets, something they refused to do on Dec. 27? That day, coach Jim Caldwell enraged the fan base by pulling the starters in the third quarter of what disintegrated into a 29-15 loss. The decision cost the team a chance at perfection.

The Jets are the latest Cinderella team to challenge for a Super Bowl berth. They needed that comeback win over the Colts to even qualify for the playoffs. Once in, they've gone on the road and imposed their blue-collar will on the Bengals and Chargers.

Hey, the Jets have to stick with what works. After having a 2-1 edge in takeaways over San Diego last week, the Jets are 10-0 when they have fewer giveaways than their opponents. That includes wins in their last four games. But they didn't force any turnovers against Peyton Manning in the first meeting, and that must change for them to win the rematch. They must find a way to pressure Peyton.

Nobody is suggesting that the Jets should abandon the "ground and pound" philosophy that has gotten them this far, but keep in mind that 145 of their 202 rushing yards in the first meeting with Indianapolis came after Manning had been removed from the game, after all the emotion and momentum had shifted to the Jets. A well-timed long pass or two could work wonders, particularly if the Colts, as expected, stack the box.

True, the Jets are on a normal work week, but they lost time having to fly back from the West Coast. This will be their sixth road game in an eight-week span, so coach Rex Ryan made a concession to possible fatigue by giving his team two days off at the start of the week. Indianapolis had an extra day to prepare and hasn't left home in three weeks, so the Colts figure to be much fresher. The Jets must ignore that and run on pure emotion.

The Colt’s defense stymied the Ravens' punishing ground game in a divisional round win, and it should be utilized against the Jets' 1-2 punch of running backs Thomas Jones and Shonn Greene. The plan consists of being stout at the point of attack with tackles Dan Muir and Antonio Johnson, and having linebackers Clint Session and Gary Brackett and safeties Melvin Bullitt and Antoine Bethea fill their gaps and swarm to the ball.

It's no secret. The Jets will try to control the game and the clock with Jones and Greene, and limit what they ask from rookie QB Mark Sanchez. Limiting New York's ground game should produce more favorable situations on third down, which should enable ends

Rex Ryan's defense is physical and aggressive. Its makeup leads to uneven play even for the most efficient offense. Things aren't likely to come easily for Manning, especially if the Jets are able to exert pressure. But in what promises to be a tight game against an opponent not built for high-scoring games, it's incumbent upon Manning to take care of the football and not give the Jets short-field opportunities or easy scores.

The Colts could have KO'd the Jets in December, but declined. Now they've got to close the deal with a trip to Super Bowl XLIV on the line. The Jets are a brass-knuckles bunch and the warm-and-fuzzy story among the NFL's Final Four. But they aren't likely to score enough to keep up with Manning. With so much on the line, Manning will show why he's the league's MVP, but the Jets keep it close. Take points and Jets.

Minnesota at New Orleans (-3.5)

Last week: Vikings beat Cowboys 34-3 ; Saints beat Cardinals 45-14.

The quarterbacks are as good as it gets. Minnesota's Brett Favre is remarkably having one of the best seasons of his Hall of Fame career, and he played one of his best games Sunday, throwing four touchdown passes in a 34-3 rout of the Dallas Cowboys.

But Favre didn't come out of retirement again to settle for the NFC Championship Game. It's Super Bowl or bust for the NFL's all-time leader in passing yards and passing touchdowns, who has not been back to the Super Bowl since losing to Denver 12 years ago.

New Orleans' Drew Brees, meanwhile, is trying to get to his first Super Bowl and, in the process, break into that elite stratosphere of quarterbacks. Brees, who turned 31 last week, set the NFL record for completion percentage in a season, and he became the second quarterback to throw for 4,000 yards in four consecutive seasons (joining Peyton Manning).

Last year, Brees was the second QB ever to throw for 5,000 in a season. But he knows that he'll ultimately be judged by how he performs in games like these.

As it should be, the NFC title will be decided by a showdown between the two best teams. The Saints (14-3) and Vikings (13-4) were dominant for much of the season before a couple of mini-slumps in December. And both of them reached their peak last week in the divisional round of the NFC playoffs, winning by the same margin -- 31 points.

This should be the toughest matchup to date for both teams. Each team can score points. The Saints offense, which led the league in points scored, is thrilling to watch and creates matchup nightmares for defenses because it is so deep and versatile. The Vikings offense is even more balanced, though, with Favre playing as well as ever while defenses continue to focus on stopping All-Pro tailback Adrian Peterson.

The Vikings have a fearsome defensive front, and the Saints have an aggressive, opportunistic defense. And both teams are built to take advantage of the other's biggest weakness (for the Saints, it's their porous run defense; for the Vikings, it's their shaky play at safety). There will be no free rides into the Super Bowl.

Saints safety Darren Sharper will provide a fascinating subplot for several reasons. For one, he's dying to make his former team pay for giving up on him last offseason, where he lingered in free agency before settling on a one-year bargain deal in New Orleans.

He also has a longtime personal relationship with Favre, who was his teammate in Green Bay for eight years before they became rivals when Sharper went to Minnesota. And like Favre, Sharper is trying to get back to the Super Bowl for the first time in 12 years as he heads toward the twilight of his career.

It would be shocking if Sharper didn't have a major impact on how this game plays out. He has been an incredible playmaker for the Saints this year, helping to lead their drastic culture change on defense. He intercepted nine passes with three touchdown returns and an NFL record 376 interception return yards this season, then added a fumble recovery last week against Arizona (plus an interception that was called back by a late hit).

Sharper does like to gamble, though, and Favre knows him as well as anybody, so they'll try to pick on each other.

The Vikings, meanwhile, could really use Sharper on their side in this game. Their safeties have not stepped up consistently in Sharper's absence, and now they're going against arguably the league's most dangerous passing offense.

The Saints' biggest weakness is their run defense, and the Vikings must exploit that with Adrian Peterson's strong cutbacks, a facet of opposing running backs that has given New Orleans problems. The Vikings are 6-0 when Peterson carries the ball at least 25 times, including the 34-3 victory over Dallas in the divisional round. Peterson had 26 carries for 63 yards.

When Peterson gets a high number of carries, it helps the offense control time of possession and the linemen have the chance to assert their will on defensive linemen eager to rush Favre.

Brees is one of the least sacked players in the NFL in recent years because of his mobility and quick release under pressure. The Vikings don't need to necessarily sack Brees often to win this game, but they must keep him from buying extra time getting outside of the pocket. If pass rushers can put pressure on Brees with the front four, as they did last week against Dallas, the secondary won't have to cover the Saints' dangerous receivers as long.

When healthy, the Saints' starting cornerback tandem of Tracy Porter and Jabari Greer are a force for opposing receivers. Porter and Greer allowed one passing touchdown in their season's first eight games. It's up to Vikings receivers to get open and give Favre openings to hit them. This is the biggest game in the young pro careers of Percy Harvin (questionable for the game) and Sidney Rice, and they need to respond to the tough matchup.

Tailback Reggie Bush looked healthier, faster and more dangerous than ever last week against the Cardinals. The receivers create matchup nightmares: Marques Colston (a big, tall target with great hands), Devery Henderson and Robert Meachem (speedy downfield threats) and Lance Moore (a shifty target with great hands in the mold of Wes Welker and Miles Austin). Tight end Jeremy Shockey is one of the best receivers at his position. And the Saints have been running the ball effectively.

Brees' ability to avoid sacks is in large part because he makes quick decisions, gets rid of the ball and finds holes in defenses. Defenses rarely have success when they blitz against him. But he's obviously more dangerous when he has time in the pocket to wait for plays to open up downfield.

And Minnesota's front four, led by end Jared Allen and tackle Kevin Williams, rarely give quarterbacks that time, especially on the fast track inside a dome. This will be a huge test for Saints left tackle Jermon Bushrod, who has been mostly solid in his first season as the Saints starter.

Bushrod had a forgettable performance against Dallas in Week 15, as did the entire Saints' pass protection. But he held his own against Julius Peppers, John Abraham and the Giants and Jets, among others. The Saints will surely offer him help with blocking help from tight ends and backs, but that takes a receiver out of the fold.

The Saints have been vulnerable to big plays in the run game, especially on the opening drive this year. And once again, they let Arizona's Tim Hightower break off a 70-yard touchdown run on the first play of scrimmage last week.

They settled down after that, allowing 31 rushing yards the rest of the game. But their run defense was inconsistent past three months. It has been especially porous against cutback runs, but the problems have stemmed from missed assignments to missed tackles in every level of the defense.

A painfully long drought will end for one of these tortured franchises. The Vikings went to four Super Bowls in the 1960s and 1970s and lost all four of them. They haven't been back in 33 years. But they have nothing on the Saints, who have never reached a Super Bowl in 43 years -- one of five teams left on that list. In fact, this will be the first time New Orleans has ever been host to an NFC championship game. Expect a frenzied Superdome crowd that will do all it can to will the Saints to victory. This game could be decided by a field goal. Take points and Vikings.