Divisional Playoffs

January 14 2010 @ 19:00

Greetings Lasses and Lads.

My record against the spread:

Last week: 3-1

Season: 131-129.

Arizona at New Orleans (-6.5)

Last week: Cardinals beat Packers 51-45; Saints lost to Panthers two weeks ago 23-10.

This has all the makings of another spectacular offensive display, with two of the game's most dynamic offenses and skilled quarterbacks going head-to-head. The Saints led the NFL in scoring at 31.9 points per game, and the Cardinals just won a 51-45 overtime shootout against Green Bay in the wild-card round.

Obviously, both teams plan on playing some defense Saturday afternoon, but there should be plenty of touchdowns. Saints QB Drew Brees finished second in the NFL's MVP voting, setting a league-record for completion percentage (70.62) while throwing for 4,388 yards, 34 touchdowns and a league-high passer rating of 109.6. Cardinals QB Kurt Warner was a little more Clark Kent in the regular season, but as usual he turned into Superman when the playoffs began, throwing more TD passes last week (five) than he did incomplete passes (four).

Everyone's curious to see how the Saints look after a lengthy hiatus, including the Saints. After a spectacular 13-0 start, New Orleans hasn't won a game in more than a month now. The Saints sustained their first loss against the now-scorching Cowboys at the Superdome in Week 15, then followed that up with a hangover loss at home against lowly Tampa Bay. And Saints coach Sean Payton mostly rested his starters in Week 17 at Carolina, favoring health and rest over momentum. We'll find out which is more important.

The Saints should, indeed, be  healthier and complete team than they've been since midseason. Most important, starting cornerbacks Jabari Greer and Tracy Porter will be back at full speed. The Saints' defense was much better with Greer and Porter in the lineup the first two months.

Once again, most NFL observers were sleeping on the Cardinals after a sluggish regular-season finish. And once again, they saved their best for the playoffs. Arizona was flawless on offense last week, even without injured receiver Anquan Boldin. Warner and Pro Bowl wide receiver Larry Fitzgerald are a deadly combination, and several players add help around them, including rookie running back Beanie Wells, who has given the Cardinals a decent rushing attack.

But the Cardinals' defense is obviously shaky. They don't apply enough pressure, and they aren't deep in the secondary behind their top three playmakers. They were opportunistic last week, forcing two early turnovers to set the tone against Green Bay and then winning the game on a sack/fumble that was returned for a touchdown in overtime.

The Packers scored 45 points last week, largely by making plays through the air. In almost every instance, a Cardinals defensive back missed a tackle. It wasn't just one person making mistakes. Everyone was at fault, but cornerback Bryant McFadden, particularly, was exposed. The Cardinals can't afford to be that sloppy again.

Opponents that have given the Cardinals trouble have been able to pressure Warner without blitzing too much. The problem for the Saints is the Cardinals have an effective short passing game and now can run the ball. If they can run effectively Saturday, Warner should be able to make some plays downfield.

Success early in the game gives the Cardinals confidence throughout. That's what happened against the Packers, when the Cardinals forced two turnovers on Green Bay's first three plays. That helped get the Cardinals in rhythm on offense, and it carried them to victory.

For most of the year, the Saints were threatening the 2007 Patriots' record for most points scored in a season. But their offense turned uncharacteristically sluggish in November and December, especially early in games. The Saints must score in this game, early and often, because it's what they do best and they're a much more effective team when playing with a lead. The Saints' running game becomes more efficient, and their opportunistic defense loves to pounce on desperate teams. Not that the Saints can't play catch-up, if needed. The Saints can score in bunches with Brees and his embarrassment of weapons.

The Saints' run defense was their biggest weakness the past three months and hit rock bottom when they let the one-dimensional Buccaneers run all over them in Week 16. Fortunately, the Cardinals aren't a power-running team and finished 28th in rushing yards. But Wells has been coming on strong and broke off some big runs last week, so the Saints must bottle him up. The Saints' biggest issue has been keeping containment on the back side, allowing some big cutback runs. But they've been getting gashed up the middle at times, too, and everyone has missed tackles. Having the cornerbacks healthy should be a bonus here, because it will allow the Saints to take more chances up front and to use strong safety Roman Harper more frequently in run support.

All teams strive in winning the turnover battle, especially the playoffs. But it will be especially important in a game where every offensive possession could result in points. The Saints must look no further than last week when the Packers were done in by two early turnovers that put them in a 17-0 hole against Arizona. Then after Green Bay clawed back, the Cardinals forced another game-winning turnover in overtime. The Saints are pretty good with ball security. Brees will take some chances, but they're usually calculated risks. And the Saints' defense is an aggressive bunch that's also willing to gamble, which led to 39 takeaways this year (second in the NFL). It will help if the Saints can get pressure on Warner, who isn't mobile and can get rattled.

Neither team can afford to start slow or be sloppy with the football in this game, because the other offense will pounce quickly. The Saints need to prove they can flip the switch back on after their December struggles, but they've been at their best in high-profile games, most recently their Monday night rout over New England in Week 12.

Arizona was obviously able to flip that switch on last week, just like they did on the way to the Super Bowl a year ago. But the Cardinals seem to have a slimmer margin for error now, with more question marks across the board, especially if Boldin is out or limited. Both teams are hoping it won't come down to the kickers, but it just might. Take points and Cardinals.

Baltimore at Indianapolis (-6.5)

Last week: Ravens beat Patriots 33-14; Colts lost to Bills two weeks ago 30-7.

Colts QB Peyton Manning earned a record fourth MVP award last week. The magnitude of that could lessen if he's unable to lead his teammates past the Ravens on Saturday night.

The Colts hardly are a one-man show, but Manning is the offensive catalyst who sets the tone. Despite his presence, the franchise has lost its first playoff game in six of its nine appearances since his arrival in 1998. Another one-and-done would be tough for the organization, and city, to stomach.

The organization eschewed perfection during the regular season to focus on being as healthy as possible for postseason. After directing the team to a 14-0 start, coach Jim Caldwell infuriated a large portion of the team's fan base by limiting the playing time of Manning and other front-line players in closing losses to the Jets and Bills. If the team comes out rusty or flat and fails to advance despite being rested and healthy, Colts fans will scream loud and long.

The chess match between Manning and Ravens inside linebacker Ray Lewis always is worth the price of admission. Manning is an expert at making pre-snap reads and adjustments. Lewis prides himself on matching wits with Manning. The game's outcome might come down to who is able to guess right the most.

The Ravens must run directly at the Colts. Indianapolis has too much speed to be beaten on the perimeter. Big offensive tackles Michael Oher and Jared Gaither should allow the team to run directly at the Colts' lightweight defensive line, especially Pro Bowl ends Robert Mathis and Dwight Freeney. If the Ravens run effectively early, that would force the Colts to put one or both safeties near the box and out of their comfortable cover-2 zone. That's when the passing game will succeed.

The Raven’s blitzes should come up the middle, not off the perimeter. Manning and New England QB Tom Brady aren't bothered by outside pressure because they can adjust and sidestep those blitzes without difficulty. But both Manning and Brady have trouble with blitzes up the middle because opponents get in their face quickly. Last week against Brady, the Ravens had great success by blitzing outside linebackers up the middle. Expect more of the same Saturday night against Manning.

The Ravens can play with the Colts and should have beaten them Nov. 22. In the past, the Colts haven't played well following a bye in the playoffs. They Ravens must score early, and plant that seed of doubt again. Also, the Ravens are playing with a lot of confidence and an early touchdown would allow that to grow.

And that one dimension is throwing the ball. Baltimore ran over New England last week with 234 yards on 52 carries. Ray Rice and Willis McGahee combined for 221 yards on 42 carries. Colts defensive coordinator Larry Coyer's front seven must limit the damage by swarming to the ball. The return of linebacker Clint Session and safety Melvin Bullitt are huge plusses. Against Baltimore in Week 11, the Colts limited the Ravens to 98 yards on 31 rushes. Baltimore QB Joe Flacco is dealing with a hip injury and is immobile. Make him, not Rice or McGahee, win the game.

The Colts are virtually unbeatable when Manning runs an error-free offense. They've won 25 consecutive regular-season games when not turning the ball over. That streak includes four wins over the opportunistic Ravens. The Colts' offense, though, had three turnovers against Baltimore in November, including two Manning interceptions. That allowed the Ravens to hang around and necessitated a late-game stop by the defense to secure the win. Lewis, safety Ed Reed and the rest of the defense will force the issue. Manning must remain patient and capitalize when big-play opportunities are presented.

Arguably the best kicker in NFL history, Vinatieri still isn't 100 percent after October arthroscopic surgery on his right knee. The Colts will rely on Matt Stover, the Ravens' career scoring and field-goal leader. If the Ravens' defense stiffens or the Colts' offense falters, it will be imperative for Stover to finish drives with field goals. In November's 17-15 Colts win over the Ravens, he delivered the winning margin in the fourth quarter with a 25-yard field goal. Ravens kicker Billy Cundiff accounted for all of his team's scoring with five field goals in November but missed a 30-yarder. The importance of knocking down field goals was most evident when the Colts beat the Ravens in Baltimore in a 2006 playoffs. Vinatieri delivered all of their scoring in a 15-6 win.

The building will be rocking and the pressure will be on for Manning and the No. 1-seeded Colts. And there will be no excuses. Caldwell's decision to ease up in the final two regular-season games produced the desired results: his team is rested and healthy. Even if it takes the Colts a series or two to regain their rhythm on both sides of the ball after the bye, they'll find it and do more than enough, especially offensively, to dismiss the Ravens. Barring another 200-yard rushing performance by Rice and McGahee, the Colts move on but Ravens cover. Take points and Ravens.

Dallas at Minnesota (-2.5)

Last week: Cowboys beat Eagles 34-14; Vikings beat Giants two weeks ago 44-7.

A couple of weeks ago, the NFC playoffs appeared to be wide open as the Vikings and Saints stumbled through December. Now the hot team is Dallas, which has quickly gained momentum after back-to-back wins over Philadelphia, including a 34-14 trouncing in the wild-card round. The third-seeded Cowboys are favored by many to defeat the second-seeded Vikings on Sunday. The Cowboys are 2 ½  point underdogs on the road, but it's the Vikings who feel they're being overlooked.

It's an interesting matchup that features two quarterbacks who have toned down their gunslinging ways this season. Dallas' Tony Romo and Minnesota's Brett Favre both set career lows for interceptions this season. Sunday's outcome could come down to which quarterback makes fewer mistakes.

Wade Phillips, who coached the Cowboys to their first playoff win since 1996, is known for his acumen on defense. And how his 3-4 system performs against a Vikings team loaded with options in the West Coast offense could become the biggest factor in the game.

The Cowboys have no chance to win if Minnesota can run and pass whenever it chooses. It must slow RB Adrian Peterson enough to make the Vikings one-dimensional. Then Dallas can attack Favre with an array of blitzes and hope he makes mistakes. Peterson had a down year but still gained 1,383 yards, averaged 4.4 per carry and scored 18 touchdowns. He had only three 100-yard games but had four others with more than 90 yards. The Cowboys finished fourth in the NFL against the run (90.5) and did not allow a 100-yard rusher this season.

Minnesota's offense is a beast in the Metrodome, where the Vikings have not scored fewer than 27 points while going 8-0. Dallas has allowed more than 21 points twice this season and the Giants did it both times. The Cowboys' defense has been sensational the last month, yielding just 31 points combined and recording two shutouts. The emergence of outside linebacker Anthony Spencer and cornerback Mike Jenkins has given the Cowboys two more playmakers, All-Pro outside linebacker DeMarcus Ware and All-Pro nose tackle Jay Ratliff are the others, surrounded by a core of solid players. The Vikings' offense will be the ninth top-10 attack the Cowboys have faced this season, and only the Giants have surpassed their average in points and yards against Dallas.

The Cowboys finished the season No. 2 in the NFL in offensive penalties (65) and No. 1 in offensive penalty yardage (491). They backed up their poor standing with nine offensive penalties last week against Philadelphia, some of which resulted in the Cowboys failing to score after entering the red zone. Dallas can't afford to leave points on the field because of offensive penalties.

Vikings offensive tackles Bryant McKinnie and Phil Loadholt must contain Ware and Spencer, who combined for three of the four sacks on Philadelphia's Donovan McNabb last week. McKinnie and Loadholt do struggle at times with speed rushers. McKinnie was voted to the Pro Bowl this year, but he struggled late in the year against the speed and power of Carolina's Julius Peppers and was benched in the second half.

To neutralize the Dallas pass rush, the Vikings say they want to establish the run. That would help the offensive line set the tone as a physical group. Peterson will be needed in these playoffs. He must protect the ball after leading the league in lost fumbles (six). A good ground game would take the pressure off Favre. The Cowboys made the Philadelphia offense one-dimensional with just 13 rushing attempts last week. The Vikings can't let a similar situation unfold.

Romo's big-play receiver, Miles Austin, could be a big challenge for an up-and-down secondary. If cornerback Antoine Winfield (foot) doesn't play his usual position on the outside, the Vikings would be forced to rely on Benny Sapp and Cedric Griffin to handle the majority of the snaps against Austin. Winfield played in the nickel defense against the Giants two weeks ago because he wasn't 100 percent. Austin has good speed, and Winfield wasn't a burner even when healthy. This could prove to be quite the mismatch for Dallas.

Vikings coach Brad Childress is looking for his first playoff win after losing to Philadelphia in the wild-card round last season with Tarvaris Jackson at quarterback. The Vikings need to put the ball in Brett Favre's hands. This is why they signed him: to lead them in the playoffs. If he fails, so be it. The team has played its best football when Favre is the focal point of the offense, and they need to trust the same formula to work again.

If this game is close, the X-factor could be the fact that the Vikings have an excellent kicker (Ryan Longwell), while the Cowboys are relying on Shaun Suisham, who was released by Washington in December after missing a short field goal against the Saints. The Vikings are undefeated at home this season, but Dallas is on a roll. Take Cowboys.

NY Jets at San Diego (-7.5)

Last week: Jets beat Bengals 24-14; Chargers beat Redskins two weeks ago 23-20.

The Jets received a gift postseason berth, but they proved worthy of being in the playoffs with one of their finest all-around performances in last week's wild-card victory at Cincinnati. The Chargers, on the other hand, have won 11 in a row, with victories over the entire NFC East and Cincinnati along the way. Both teams are playing with confidence.

This will be a matchup of strength vs. strength. The Chargers averaged 28.4 points, fourth in the NFL. The Jets allowed 14.8 points, fewest in the league. The Chargers do most of their damage through the air, averaging 271.1 yards passing, fifth in the league. The Jets are the NFL's stingiest pass defense, allowing just 153.7 yards per game. The key matchups in the secondary will be worth the price of admission, with All-Pro cornerback Darrelle Revis most likely to shadow Pro Bowl receiver Vincent Jackson and the Jets' safeties getting physical with Pro Bowl tight end Antonio Gates.

Chargers Pro Bowl QB Philip Rivers loves the game and lets his emotions show. That the Jets' defense does its own talking could only add to the entertainment value. This is also where the game could be won and lost. Rivers won't be stupid going after Revis, but he has yet to shy away from opponents' top cornerback. With the Chargers' slew of tall receivers and Rivers' knack for putting the ball where only they can catch it, the results are sometimes spectacular. Of course, Revis has seven interceptions in 17 games and likely will provide Jackson his stiffest challenge.

Yes, it's repetitious but true. In games in which they have more takeaways than their opponents, the Jets are 9-0, including wins in their last three games. The latest was the playoff victory over Cincinnati in which Revis had an interception and defensive end Shaun Ellis recovered a fumble. The Jets committed no turnovers last week. They are 0-5 in games in which they have more giveaways. San Diego's 17 turnovers were the second-fewest in the NFL this season.

San Diego hasn't scored fewer than 20 points in a game this season, so it might not be realistic for even the Jets' No. 1-ranked defense to hold down San Diego for too long. But the Jets can't give up too many big plays to Rivers, Jackson, Gates, etc., or they will find themselves playing catch-up with an offense more suited to play from ahead.

True, the Jets had an extra day to prepare because they played last Saturday, but this will be their fifth road game in a seven-week span and will be flying cross-country to San Diego. The emotional Jets must not expend too much energy early in the game or else might have little in the tank for the second half.

Rookie quarterback Mark Sanchez was as efficient as the Bengals allowed him to be last week. He completed 12-of-15 passes, which is impressive. Even more impressive was that he could get away with attempting that few, as the Jets moved the ball on the ground. The Chargers, who were 20th against the run in the regular season, must stop the Jets' top-ranked rushing attack early and make Sanchez convert on second-and-long and third-and-long. Pressure and coverage are the strengths of the Chargers' defense.

The Chargers have outscored opponents 83-16 in the first quarter during their 11-game winning streak. It's imperative that they establish early that they will dictate the course of the game; the Jets win with defense and running and presumably would like to play this game at a leisurely pace. Making Sanchez play from behind and making the Jets' defense less aggressive is an almost sure recipe for success.

The Chargers might have too many weapons on offense, and their run defense improved greatly over the final month of the season. There is little reason to believe their run won't continue. If they can put Sanchez in uncomfortable positions, they should have success.

 The Jets have confidence, sure, but being on the road against a good team and down early with a rookie QB could put them in a situation they can't overcome. And the Chargers are playing with a rare assuredness; they've won big games all through November and December, and they've been in the playoffs four seasons in a row. Chargers win but Jets cover. Take points and Jets.

By: Aengus Moorehead @ 19:00 | Category: Football  | Comments: 0 | Permalink