Week 17

January 2 2010 @ 11:18

Greetings Lasses and Lads.

My record against the spread:

Last week: 9-7.

Season: 121-119.

 

Philadelphia at Dallas (-2.5)

Last week: Eagles beat Broncos 30-27; Cowboys beat Redskins 17-0.

Does it really get any better than this? Philadelphia on the road in Dallas with the NFC East title at stake.

Last year, with Dallas needing a victory in the final game to get into the playoffs, the Eagles embarrassed the Cowboys 44-6. Now, the Cowboys have an opportunity to exact revenge.

One could make the case that this game involves two of the NFC's three hottest teams, with Green Bay being the third. Philadelphia, which typically peaks this time of the year, has won six consecutive games since losing to Dallas in November. The Cowboys gave New Orleans its first loss and shut out Washington last week.

The Eagles' quick-strike offense gives them the ability to score from anywhere on the field. Andy Reid is a master at creating mismatches and confusion whether with misdirection or bunch formations. He's a daring play-caller -- sometimes he takes too many risks -- and it's Donovan McNabb's ability to take advantage of one or two of the opportunities created by Reid that are often the difference.

But the Cowboys are playing terrific team defense. The Giants are the only team to score more than 21 points against Dallas this season, and when Dallas faced Philadelphia earlier this season, the Cowboys held Philadelphia below its season averages in points and yards.

The Cowboys' blitz has come alive in the past two weeks, with Dallas totaling three sacks in each of its past three games. Outside LBs Anthony Spencer and DeMarcus Ware have combined for five sacks in the past four games. Spencer and Ware are fast off the edges and threaten to disrupt McNabb's timing, especially on five-step drops, if they're not picked up.

Thanks to their explosive offense, the Eagles have outscored opponents 99-50 in the first half during their six-game win streak. If they can jump on Dallas early and set the pace in a game that will decide the NFC East champion, it'll quiet the home crowd and put all the pressure on the Cowboys. Pressure usually leads to pressing, which often results in mistakes.

In the biggest game of the season, the Eagles need to get the ball to their best playmaker. WR DeSean Jackson has receiving touchdowns in five straight games, one shy of tying a club record. He only had two receptions for 29 yards against Dallas in the first matchup -- his third-fewest receiving yards of the season. The Eagles can't let the Cowboys take Jackson out of the game and expect to win.

Indeed, with all due respect to Cowboy WR Miles Austin, Jackson is the best big-play threat in the league. He's averaging 18.9 yards per catch and has scored nine touchdowns. He has 17 receptions of 20 yards or more and 10 of more than 40. The Eagles do a good job of creating mismatches with him, and he has so much speed that he just once he has a step on his opponent, he's gone. He caught only two passes for 29 yards in the first meeting between these teams, which is one reason the Eagles scored just 16 points. The Cowboys won't be afraid to double him because they trust CBs Mike Jenkins and Terrence Newman in one-on-one situations.

C Jamaal Jackson, who had started 71 consecutive games at center for the Eagles, is out for the season. That means Nick Cole, who had been the left guard, will move to center. This could be disastrous, because he'll make his debut against Jay Ratliff, one of the league's best nose guards. Cole must handle Ratliff's quickness to keep him from being a disruptive force up the middle and send McNabb scrambling into the arms of Ware or Spencer. Cole will also be responsible for make the protection calls and other adjustments critical to the offense functioning effectively.

Earlier this season, the Cowboys' owned short-yardage situations, especially with Marion Barber carrying the ball. They converted 10 of 11. But they've struggled lately in those situations. Two weeks ago, Barber was stopped three times from the one by San Diego. Last week against the Redskins, the Cowboys failed to convert twice on third-and-1 and once on fourth-and-1. The blame has been equally dispersed between Barber, the offensive line and offensive coordinator Jason Garrett.

The Cowboys are feeling better about themselves than at any other point of the season. Also, the pressure of making the playoffs is off. They're home and playing a team that humiliated them last season. They have every reason to make a statement. For once, the wine-and-cheese crowd at Cowboys Stadium will be hyped from the opening kickoff. This will have a playoff feel to it. Take Cowboys.

Kansas City at Denver (-12.5)

Last week: Chiefs lost to Bengals 17-10; Broncos lost to Eagles 30-27.

The Broncos still have playoff hopes, even after they gave away control of their own destiny with three straight losses. Although there are scenarios in which the Broncos get in with a loss, the most realistic chance they have is to win and get some help. Missing the playoffs after starting 6-0, with a 3 1/2-game lead in the AFC West, would make for a very long offseason.

The Broncos also need a win to feel good about making progress this season. Last year, an 8-8 record with a historic collapse cost Mike Shanahan his job. The Broncos are 2-7 since their great start, and an 8-8 finish would be very unsatisfying to a new regime. A 9-7 season without a playoff berth wouldn't be ideal, but it would be better than finishing on a four-game losing streak.

The Chiefs have nothing tangible to play for, but going into the offseason with a win and crushing their division rival's playoff hopes would be a nice way to send off a poor season. Kansas City did not win in December. One of the Chiefs' losses in that stretch was an uncompetitive 44-13 loss to the Broncos. Getting some payback for that loss has to be on their minds.

The Broncos committed three turnovers at Kansas City in Week 13. The Chiefs converted those turnovers into 10 of their 13 points. Kansas City won't be able to move the ball consistently against Denver's strong defense Sunday, so they'll have to again take advantage if they can force the Broncos into multiple turnovers.

Denver's 245 yards rushing were a key in their blowout win at Arrowhead Stadium. Though the Bengals ran for 144 against the Chiefs last week, Kansas City limited the big plays and made them earn every yard. The Chiefs again might have to commit to stopping the run foremost and thus leave cornerback Brandon Flowers man-to-man against Denver wide receiver Brandon Marshall, but the fiery wide-out is out of Sunday’s caper hence alleviating the pressure on the front line.

The Broncos forced Chiefs QB Matt Cassel into his worst game of the season (10-of-29 passing, 84 yards, two interceptions) last time these teams met. The Chiefs can take pressure off Cassel by giving the ball frequently to Jamaal Charles, their best offensive player. While the Broncos have played consistently well against the pass, they have shown weakness at times against a determined running attack.

There are plenty of reasons for the Broncos to come out flat Sunday. There's a good chance even a win won't save their playoff hopes. For the first time all year, the Broncos don't control their own destiny and it will be Coach Josh McDaniels' job to make sure Denver focuses on what it can control, which is winning.

In each of the last three games, the Broncos had a chance to pull out a late win but let the game slip away. The team had a physical training camp, and while nobody has said that is a reason for the late-season slide, it could be a factor. No matter the reason, the Broncos have to make a game-winning play in the fourth quarter if the situation arises.

After Denver blew a game at home against the Raiders two weeks ago, it's tough to completely discount the chance that the Chiefs will play a spoiler role. Still, the Broncos should be hungry and are clearly better than Kansas City. They showed that during a blowout win at Arrowhead Stadium less than a month ago, when they ran the ball at will and completely stifled the Chiefs' offense. If Denver can stay focused and not let the Chiefs stick around early, the Broncos should get a much-needed victory but without Marshall, the Chiefs keep it close. Take points and Chiefs.

Pittsburgh at Miami (PK)

Last week: Steelers beat Ravens 23-20; Dolphins lost to Texans 27-20.

The Dolphins and the Steelers will both need plenty of help to return to the postseason -- but neither team has been mathematically eliminated just yet. In order to pick up an AFC Wildcard berth, the first part of the equation for each team is simple: They need to win this game. From there, the Dolphins need losses from the Jets, the Ravens, the Texans and the Jaguars. And the Steelers will be rooting for a combination of losses from the Texans and the Jets, the Texans and the Ravens or the Ravens, the Jets and the Broncos. But for the sake of limiting confusion, it's still much simpler: The only way either team will have a chance begins with a win Sunday.

Safety Troy Polamalu has already been forced to miss 10 games in an injury-riddled season. It remains to be seen whether he'll also miss his 11th. Last week, it appeared Polamalu's knee was nearly to the point when he could play against the Ravens, but the team decided to keep him sidelined yet again. Whether the team decides to play him against the Dolphins remains to be seen. If they do, it will be interesting to see whether Polamalu can shake the rust of his time away quickly enough to make an impact. The Dolphins surely hope not, since their passing game isn't exactly on fire right now to begin with.

The Dolphins are still trying to maintain motivation based on the possibility that they could still make the playoffs. But with four other teams needing to lose Sunday, it's not exactly a prospect that's providing a great deal of inspiration. The Dolphins should still have plenty of reason to be motivated, if not only because of the future of the organization. There are many young players -- guys who are expected to be impact players on this team for years to come -- who need as much valuable game experience as they can get. So Sunday will be an important day for quarterback Chad Henne, rookie cornerbacks Vontae Davis and Sean Smith, nose tackle Paul Soliai, defensive end Randy Starks and a number of other players who want to show they belong on the field this year as well as next year.

Even without Ronnie Brown, the Dolphins have continued to feature one of the best rush offenses in the league behind Ricky Williams. That will be a problem for the Steelers, whose rush defense has faltered. They have allowed 171 and 175 yards rushing in two of the past three games, the highest totals they have yielded this season.

The Steelers have put even more emphasis on throwing the past couple of weeks, which is a byproduct of having a suspect defense that has trouble protecting leads. The Dolphins have allowed 16 pass plays of 40 yards or longer (tied for the league high) and 54 plays of 20 yards or more (tied for third most in the league). Expect the pass-happy trend to continue.

Only a month ago, the Dolphins were having significant issues closing out games, as evidenced by the fact they'd already allowed more points in the fourth quarter than any team in franchise history. Now, over the past two weeks at least, they're having trouble getting started. A week ago, the Dolphins got behind 27-0 against Houston before staging a comeback the fell short. If Miami wants to have a chance against the Steelers, it will have to come out of the gate with intensity and purpose.

For those who doubt inside linebacker Channing Crowder's impact, consider what happened Sunday when he suffered a foot injury during the first defensive series. Miami's run defense crumbled and the communication within the unit was poor. Crowder is a field general for the defense, and considering he won't be able to play Sunday against the Steelers, it's time for somebody else to take on the role. Reggie Torbor will take Crowder's place at inside linebacker, but Akin Ayodele likely will be the voice of the defense. This shapes up as another tough day for Miami's run defense.

The Dolphins started fast early in the season. Now, they're coming out completely flat. Whatever the problem is, Miami is scrambling to find its identity as the final game approaches. Even with a win Sunday, the Dolphins won't likely make the playoffs because of all the help they need. It would still be nice for the sake of something to build on to put together a complete game. If the Dolphins can do that, it would at least prove they are capable of the feat, something that hasn't been the case often this season. .

It's hard to imagine either of these teams making the playoffs, considering how much help both squads will need even if they win. But the Dolphins and the Steelers are two gritty teams that surely won't quit, which should still make this a fun battle to watch regardless of its implications. However, with linebacker Channing Crowder out of this game with a foot injury, the Dolphins' defense will be in a situation that's going to cause some severe difficulties slowing down the Steelers' offense. At full strength, this game could easily go either way. Without Crowder, the Steelers get the edge. Take Steelers.

NY Giants at Minnesota (-8.5)

Last week: Giants lost to Panthers 41-9; Vikings lost to Bears 36-30.

The Vikings, losers of three of their past four games, are playing their worst football of the season. They have one last chance during the regular season to regain some momentum.

They're coming off back-to-back losses to teams with losing records, and after the 36-30 overtime setback at Chicago, the only good news for them is that their next game is at home. The Vikings are 7-0 at home this season and are matched up with a New York Giants team that was eliminated from the playoffs last week.

The Giants might not have much motivation for this game, and that could compound their problems on the field. New York is allowing an average of 25.5 points a game, which ranks 28th in the NFL. That includes an embarrassing 41-9 loss at home last week to Carolina.

Playing the Giants next might be just what the Vikings need to get back on track before the playoffs start.

Carolina's Jonathan Stewart was able to run for 206 yards against the Giants, and that could be a sign of things to come for Vikings running back Adrian Peterson. He's gone six consecutive games without topping 100 yards, the longest streak of his career. It's important to get Peterson's confidence re-established after he fumbled in overtime against Chicago and the Bears scored on the next play to send Minnesota home with a loss.

The Giants were so embarrassed following their 41-9 loss to the Panthers in their final game at Giants Stadium that Tom Coughlin and Eli Manning made public apologies to the fans. The Giants haven't closed out a season playing a game out of playoff contention since the end of the 2004 season and it remains to be seen how much fight and passion they will have as they near the end of a highly-disappointing year with a road game against a motivated, playoff-bound opponent.

Consistent pressure on the quarterback has been an ongoing problem for the Giants, who have only 32 sacks this season. After griping about his playing time vs. the Panthers, figure DE Osi Umenyiora gets some extra time on the field and if he does he will try to use his speed rush to get around LT Bryant McKinnie, who is coming off rough outings against Julius Peppers and also against the Bears. Umenyiora leads the Giants with seven sacks and desperately wants a strong finish to a very frustrating season.

The Giants' injury-ridden and talent-starved secondary has been ravaged for big plays all season and the Vikings can definitely add to those woes with Sidney Rice and rookie Percy Harvin. It looks as if CBs Corey Webster (knee) and Aaron Ross (hamstring) will again be sidelined, giving the Vikings a huge advantage against undersized reserve corners Kevin Dockery and Bruce Johnson. For the Giants to have a chance, second-year CB Terrell Thomas — one of the more consistent players for the Giants but coming off a poor game vs. Carolina — is going to have to play at an exceptionally high level.

The Vikings have tried to force feed Adrian Peterson the ball lately, and it hasn't worked. He's been stuffed by opposing defenses who are focused on stopping him. That trend continued against Chicago in the first half. But the Vikings' offense came to life when Brett Favre got the passing game going, which opened room for Peterson on the ground. They need to continue throwing the ball to loosen up defenses and find room for Peterson to run.

Struggling CB Antoine Winfield isn't 100 percent healthy, and that's a major problem moving forward with the playoffs around the corner. The Vikings might have to consider resting him against the Giants. That could potentially give him two weeks to rest if the Vikings secure a first-round playoff bye. Then he could come back and perform at the level before he missed six games with a fractured right foot. Right now, Winfield is a liability, as he's showed the past two weeks, getting torched by Carolina's Steve Smith and then giving up the game-winning TD to Chicago's Devin Aromashodu.

When the Vikings were at their best en route to a 10-1 start this season, they won the battles up front on the offensive and defensive lines. That's not happening any more. Teams are sending extra help against DE Jared Allen, minimizing his pressure on quarterbacks. And the offensive line isn't performing well, giving up seven sacks in the past two games, while not providing many holes for Peterson. That has to change.

The Vikings have one game left in the regular season to try to fix their problems that have been exposed in recent weeks. And if they can't figure out how to avoid slow starts on offense early in games, cut down on the big plays allowed by the defense, and be more physical along the offensive line, their postseason run could be limited to one game.

The Giants have a chance to play the spoiler role, but with their playoff hopes dead, there's reason to question whether they're up to the task. Look for the Vikings to bounce back at home in the Metrodome, where their defense plays so much better. They win but Giants cover. Take points and Giants.

Cincinnati at NY Jets (-9.5)

Last week: Bengals beat Chiefs 17-10; Jets beat Colts 29-15.

Can the Jets get into the playoffs? All they need is a victory, and for the second straight week, they are facing a team that is expected to pull its starters before the game is over. If the Jets can beat the Bengals, they will make the playoffs for the fifth time in the last nine seasons, and this is the seventh time this decade in which they have had a playoff spot on the line on the regular season’s final Sunday.
 
How will the Bengals play it? A la Indianapolis coach Jim Caldwell last week, Cincinnati coach Marvin Lewis played it coy Monday about who will play and for how long, admitting that results earlier in the day could affect his mindset. The AFC North champion Bengals are guaranteed a home playoff game no matter what happens, but QB Carson Palmer indicated Monday he thinks the offense needs to be sharper and he wants to play to get ready for the playoffs.
 
It’s the final game at Giants Stadium. No, it’s never been as storied as, say, Soldier Field or Lambeau Field, but it did serve as home to the Giants for 34 seasons and to the Jets for 26. The Giants didn’t exactly finish their tenure well with an embarrassing loss to Carolina, so it’s up to the Jets to give their home fans something to celebrate in the final game there.

This game has a different feel because the Bengals have already been crowned AFC North champs and the Jets need a win to get in the playoffs. The Bengals are a physically, mentally and emotionally drained squad forced to fight through the Dec. 17 death of wide receiver Chris Henry. The offense won’t reveal anything exotic because the Bengals could wind up hosting the Jets on Wild Card Weekend. Don’t be surprised if Lewis pulls some of his key starters in the third quarter. As much as the Bengals would like to have momentum going into the playoffs, they need a break and need to get fresh for the postseason.

The Bengals are a running team that relies on defense, but there are signs the passing game is slowly coming to life. Palmer continues to work to get wide receivers Laveranues Coles, Andre Caldwell and Quan Cosby more involved to take the heat off Chad Ochocinco. Backup running back Larry Johnson should get more carries because it’s critical for starter Cedric Benson to be at the top of his game once the playoffs begin.

If the Bengals truly want to win the game, they need to match the physicality of the Jets, who will throw every kind of stunt and blitz scheme at them. The Bengals have been good at fighting through adversity and staying calm. That kind of maturity has served them well through a turbulent, roller-coaster season.

The numbers don’t lie. In games in which they have more takeaways than their opponents, the Jets are 7-0, including their win over the tanking Indianapolis Colts on Sunday. And they are 0-5 in games in which they have more giveaways. QB Mark Sanchez must play under control, as he did against Indy, when he erred on the side of caution instead of throwing some passes where they could’ve been picked off.
 
Say this about the Jets in their tainted win over the Colts--they continued to play hard, if not harder, when Indianapolis rested its offensive starters in the third quarter. Perhaps they did that because they knew they had the advantage at that point. Whatever the case, they need to bring it for four quarters even if the Bengals do not.

Coach Rex Ryan has pushed the right motivational buttons with this team lately, and must do so again Sunday. Most pundits are expecting potentially motivation-less Cincinnati to be a no-show, much as Indianapolis was in the last 20 minutes against the Jets, and are thus conceding the Jets a playoff spot before the opening coin toss.

The Jets cannot fall into that mindset, because Cincy backup QB J.T. O’Sullivan (nine NFL TD passes, 13 picks) at least has some experience, unlike Indy’s deer-in-the-headlights rookie Curtis Painter. A healthy dose of Thomas Jones runs and mistake-free play by Sanchez gives the Jets the win, but barely. Take points and Bengals.

Indianapolis at Buffalo (-8.5)

Last week: Colts lost to Jets 29-15; Bills lost to Falcons 31-3.

Colts Coach Jim Caldwell took a lot of heat from fans and media for pulling his starters so early last week and costing the team a chance at a perfect season. It's doubtful he will be swayed by public opinion on Sunday, especially with nothing to play for and the fear of losing important players to injury.

If the Colts try just a little bit, they could still win this game because the Bills are ready for the season to be over. But it's doubtful the Colts will care about the outcome. Beating the Colts at full strength would be a whole lot more meaningful than beating a bunch of backups, but the Bills will take a win any way they can get it. Take points and Colts.

New Orleans at Carolina (-8.5)

Last week: Saints lost to Buccaneers 20-17; Panthers beat Giants 41-9.

This game may come down to how much the Saints want to win. They've played some sloppy games in losing to Dallas and Tampa Bay, and need to sharpen the blade before heading into an off week and then the divisional playoffs.

The Panthers present a playoff-caliber defense, so it makes sense to let Brees and Co. play some, if only to try to regain some of their previous polish. Defensively, the Saints might not see a rushing attack like this in the playoffs, and the Panthers haven't been taking many chances in the air. Take Panthers.

Jacksonville at Cleveland (-1.5)

Last week: Jaguars lost to Patriots 35-7; Browns beat Raiders 23-9.

The Jaguars and Browns aren't so far apart in the quality of their seasons. The Jaguars have won three more games, but they are slumping. The Browns have played a substantially stronger schedule, and they have won three straight games in December for the first time since 1987.

The Jaguars looked like a mess last week against the Patriots. The Browns ended a 12-game losing streak to their rival, Pittsburgh, and have been on a high ever since. The Jaguars still have an outside chance at the playoffs, but the Browns are at home, playing to keep the Mangini regime intact. The momentum is on Cleveland's side, big-time but the Jags have much more on the line. Take Jaguars.

Chicago at Detroit (+2.5)

Last week: Bears beat Vikings 36-30; Lions lost to 49ers 20-6.

Regardless of who plays quarterback, the Lions can't find a way to score with any consistency, and that's not going to change in the season's final week. The offensive line can't get it together, and the team doesn't have any weapons other than Johnson.

The Bears have to play this smart and not take risks trying to win the game; all they have to do is stay out of the Lions' way and allow them to find a way to lose it. It might take a while, but Detroit will eventually self-destruct. Take Bears.

New England at Houston (-7.5)

Last week: Patriots beat Jaguars 35-7; Texans beat Dolphins 27-20.

If Belichick rests players like Brady, Moss and Welker, the Texans should win handily. If not, it could be close. The Texans haven't lost by more than eight points since the opening game.

Their offense has been able to move the ball against everybody, and their defense has been outstanding against the run. This game means much more to the Texans than the Patriots. Take Texans.

San Francisco at St-Louis (+6.5)

Last week: 49ers beat Lions 20-6; Rams lost Cardinals 31-10.

The Rams have beaten one team all year, when they dropped the Detroit Lions in Week 8. They have not scored over 20 points since Week 10 and they have allowed 30 points or more six times this season.

With a win, the 49ers will reach the .500 mark but when you look at their past 15 games, they have really been blown out one time (45-10 against the Falcons). The first encounter between these two was a 35-6 thrashing by the Niners. Look for San Francisco to do the same. Take 49ers.

Atlanta at Tampa Bay (+1.5)

Last week: Falcons beat Bills 31-3; Buccaneers beat Saints 20-17.

The Bucs and Falcons have nothing but pride and jobs to play for now, but this game is still worth a look because it offers even casual fans the chance to watch two of the game's most promising young quarterbacks.

The Bucs are on a roll but they're not even sure themselves if they're just hot or if they've really turned the corner; how about neither. Take Falcons.

Green Bay at Arizona (-2.5)

Last week: Packers beat Seahawks 48-10; Cardinals beat Rams 31-10.

It's hard to predict this one because the clubs might face each other the following week. That changes personnel and game-planning decisions. But the Cardinals are at home and the Packers have less to play for. Coach Mike McCarthy likely will hold some things back. The Cardinals starters will play enough to stay in rhythm. Take Cardinals.

Baltimore at Oakland (+10.5)

Last week: Ravens lost to Steelers 23-20; Raiders lost to Browns 23-9.

The Ravens have far more to gain with a victory than the Raiders, a team to which they are superior offensively and defensively. The Raiders have shown that they can beat some of the league's top-tier teams -- they have victories over the Eagles, Bengals, Broncos and Steelers -- but upsetting a team on the verge of a playoff berth is too much to ask for a Raiders team fresh from a lopsided loss to the Cleveland Browns.

The Ravens will jump to early lead, milk the clock behind the running of Ray Rice and rely upon their defense to keep the Raiders from mounting a comeback. Take Ravens.

Washington at San Diego (-3.5)

Last week: Redskins lost to Cowboys 17-0; Chargers beat Titans 42-17.

The Chargers coaches and players on the field will be trying to win, but their main hope will be to get out of Sunday with everyone healthy and having gotten some good experience. Thing is, the Chargers have played so many people and those people have played so well, they are capable of handling the Redskins.

Washington has lost five of six, but it won at Oakland, took New Orleans to overtime and beat Denver in the final half of the season. Nevertheless, take Chargers.

Tennessee at Seattle (+4.5)

Last week: Titans lost to Chargers 42-17; Seahawks lost to Packers 48-10.

Tennessee is the only team in the league that has yet to play at Qwest Field, which is considered one of the loudest stadiums in the league. A lot of the noise will be directed at the Seahawks this week, though. Seattle has lost three in a row by a combined 106-24.

The Titans are 7-2 since making Young their starting QB. Only two teams have better records in that time: the Chargers (9-0) and the Colts (8-1). The Titans will continue their roll. Take Titans.

 

 

 

 

By: Aengus Moorehead @ 11:18 | Category: Football  | Comments: 0 | Permalink