Week 16

December 24 2009 @ 12:24

Greetings Lasses and Lads.

My upset of the week: Chargers (+2.5) at Titans.

My no-brainer of the week: Cowboys (-6.5) at Redskins.

My record against the spread:

Last week: 8-8.

Season: 112-112.

 

San Diego at Tennessee (-2.5)

Last week: Chargers beat Bengals 27-24; Titans beat Dolphins 27-24.

The Chargers clinched the AFC West title in Week 15, but are seeking the second seed in AFC and a first-round playoff bye. The Titans, meanwhile, are fighting for stay alive in the AFC wild-card race. At 7-7, they must win out, and even then they would need help. They would make history if they can do it -- no team has rallied from a 0-6 start to make the playoffs. The Titans have won seven-of-eight to give themselves a shot.

Everyone is been talking about the undefeated Colts in the AFC, but out West the Chargers have become one of the NFL's best teams without much notice. Are they for real? Can they be a formidable foe for the Colts in the playoffs? Their game against the Titans should at least provide answers. The Chargers have been a real nemesis for the Titans over the years -- they've won the past six games in the series -- and they've also been trouble for the Colts. If they can stay on a roll, they're a team everyone should worry about.

The Titans' biggest threat, RB Chris Johnson, is averaging 123.6 yards a game rushing and is also Tennessee's leading receiver with 44 receptions for 446 yards. The Chargers have trouble with fast, shifty receivers, and there is no one faster at the position than Johnson. The Chargers did a great job stymieing the Bengals' running game at times, but a team doesn't get away with breakdowns against Johnson.

Johnson is the NFL's most dangerous back, with an NFL record three 85-yard touchdown runs in 2009 alone. He's averaging 5.7 yards per carry, and been a threat every time he's touch the football. But teams have found a way to slow down Johnson in the second half at least -- he ran for 33 yards on 15 carries in the second half against Miami as the Dolphins nearly rallied to win. The Chargers will try and make things difficult for Johnson throughout.

Over the past seven games, opponents have made 27 trips inside the Chargers' 20-yard line. They have scored 12 touchdowns, kicked 10 field goals, fumbled three times and gone out on downs twice. The Chargers have won games by one, three, seven (twice) and eight points in that span. So red zone stops have played a big part in their success.

The Titans have allowed six 300-yard passers this season, and are 31st in the NFL in pass defense, allowing 265.1 yards per game. Plenty of good quarterbacks have lit them up. Well, Chargers quarterback Philip Rivers is one of the NFL's hottest, with 3,891 passing yards and a 25-to-9 touchdown-to-interception total. The Titans must be strong in the secondary, and that starts with cornerback Nick Harper, who has struggled on his side.

Vince Young is making good decisions and throwing the ball accurately. In eight starts he has thrown four interceptions and 10 touchdowns, and he's not forcing the ball into double coverage. It's a key example of how Young has improved, and he must keep it up against the Chargers, who have 12 interceptions. With the Chargers putting an emphasis on slowing Johnson, Young must make big throws and avoid mistakes.

The Titans have been on a roll in winning seven of their past eight games. Johnson has led the way, and his success has also taken pressure off Young. Even with starting linebackers Keith Bulluck and David Thornton out against the Chargers, the Titans will keep the game close. And a team that's found a way to win in the second half of the season will do so again, and stay alive for one more week. Take Chargers.

Houston at Miami (-2.5)

Last week: Texans beat Rams 16-13; Dolphins lost to Titans 27-24.

The Texans offense took the week off last week in St. Louis and they will get schooled if they bring the same performance this week in Miami. The Texans do have a very explosive passing game but their running game has disappeared. Whether it’s Ryan Moats, Chris Brown or Arian Foster, the Texans don’t have a running game to lean on, which will make it tough on the road.

For Miami, they continue to improve on a weekly basis. Last week, turnovers cost them dearly as they dug took deep of a hole against a Tennessee Titans. The Dolphins should have a big edge on the line of scrimmage as the Texans have no pass rush. The Dolphins should be able to run the ball well with Ricky Williams, which will help this offense move the ball and score points.

The Texans defense has been a microcosm of the team: some weeks they show up and other weeks they don’t. They only have 25 sacks on the year and they have given up 14 rushes of 20 yards or longer, which is fourth-most in the NFL. They are going up against one of the best offenses in the NFL.

Meanwhile, the Dolphins defense is ranked in the middle of the pack and they will get tested by a good passing game this week. The good news is that they have 40 sacks this year, which is the second most in the league. They should be able to get to Matt Schaub this week and everyone knows that he’s not only mistake-prone, but also injury-prone.

The Texans are a terrible rushing team, averaging just 88.7 yards per game on the ground and playing a second consecutive road game is not the cure. The Dolphins have a very good pass rush and they’ll tee off on the pass-oriented Texans.

On offense, the Dolphins will dominate the line of scrimmage and do enough to control the ball and get the important win. Take Dolphins.

Denver at Philadelphia (-6.5)

Last week: Broncos lost to Raiders 20-19; Eagles beat 49ers 27-13.

The Broncos are at 8-6 and have a horde of teams behind them at 7-7, which means wins in the last two weeks are critical. If they win out, they are going to the playoffs but if they lose one, then we start opening the tome of tiebreakers.

For Philadelphia, they are going to the playoffs – it’s just a matter of which seed they will be. If they keep on winning, they’ll be the No. 3 seed and have home field advantage at least in the first round. If not, the Eagles could fall as far as sixth and have to travel on the road through the entire playoffs.

The Broncos offense completely disappeared last week at home to Oakland, which is an ominous sign now that they are on the road in Philadelphia. Last week against Oakland, eight of their 12 drives lasted five plays or less, the running game produced 3.3 yards per carry and quarterback Kyle Orton was just 19-of-34 passing. Clearly, Orton is not the answer and if it wasn’t evident last week, it will be in a tough road game in Philadelphia.

Meanwhile, the Eagles offense is scolding hot right now. Philly has scored at least 23 points in six straight games and they have averaged 30 points per game in that stretch. Very quietly, the offense has led them to five straight wins and the Donovan McNabb to DeSean Jackson combo is about as hot as it gets right. Considering what the Raiders second, third and fourth string quarterbacks did to Denver last week, the Eagles should be salivating.

Denver fans have to be wondering what has happened to Ted Nolan’s defense. The unit that barely gave up in second half points in their first six games has been picked apart in recent weeks. Last week, they allowed Charlie Frye/JaMarcus Russell/J.P. Losman – the Raiders used all three quarterbacks on the final drive – to march down the field and score a game-winning touchdown. The pass rush is non-existent, the run defense was carved up for 241 rushing yards and the secondary failed at the most critical time. The only thing going for them is that the Eagles don’t run the ball so much so they may not expose the run defense as much as the Raiders did last week.

Philadelphia defense has been playing much better as of late and they should like their chances this week. They have the secondary to blanket Brandon Marshall and clearly for Denver, there are virtually no other threats in the passing game. Since their running game has also been off, the Eagles should have plenty of opportunity to tee off on Kyle Orton with their blitzes. He’s very mistake-prone when he is pressured.

Common sense suggests that the Broncos play better this week than they did last week but they just aren’t a very good team overall. The Broncos are very limited on offense when they can’t run the ball, they don’t have secondary options other than Brandon Marshall and the defense is starting to crack.

Combine that with a matchup against a hot Eagles squad and you should have a Philly win and cover. Take Eagles.

Baltimore at Pittsburgh (-2.5)

Last week: Ravens beat Bears 31-7; Steelers beat Packers 37-36.

There really is nothing better than a Steelers-Ravens game that really means something, and this one does for both teams. The rivalry is intense enough because both teams pride themselves on tough, aggressive defense, even though the Steelers have shown little of that in the second half of the season.

This time, there are playoff implications as well. A loss will all but eliminate the Steelers from wild-card contention. The Ravens, who won the first meeting in overtime, can stay in the hunt for the AFC North title with a win, even though the Bengals own the tiebreaker.

The Ravens' offense suddenly has come alive, scoring 79 points in the past two games. That could spell trouble for a Steelers defense that has not been as stout against the run and has really struggled against the pass. The corners are playing soft because they’re afraid to make a mistake, the safeties can’t stop deep pass plays down the middle, and the defense overall hasn’t had an interception in the past six games.

The Ravens have lost their past three games in Heinz Field and, unlike the first meeting, will have to contend with Ben Roethlisberger. He did not play in the Nov. 29 game in Baltimore because of post-concussion symptoms.

The Ravens have to take chances downfield. Pittsburgh's cornerbacks have been awful this season, incapable of defending long passes. Look for them to play far off the ball, and look for the Ravens to take advantage of that. If second-year quarterback Joe Flacco is accurate, the Ravens could have a lot of passing yards.

Pittsburgh's defense has been susceptible at giving up big plays in the middle of the field, something they did not allow last season. They have given up nine passes of 40 yards or longer, seven more than last season, and the biggest culprits are safeties Ryan Clark and Tyrone Carter.

After throwing for a team-record 503 yards and three TDs against the Packers, Ben Roethlisberger might have to do more of the same against the Ravens. The Steelers defense has allowed 21 or more points in the fourth quarter three times this season, forcing the offense to strike quickly through the air.

The Steelers have fared better against teams with winning records than those with losing records. They have lost to the Bears, Chiefs, Raiders and Browns, but have victories over the Chargers, Vikings, Broncos and Packers. There is no question they play to their competition, which might bode well against the Ravens.

They lost the first meeting with Baltimore because Roethlisberger was out and Dennis Dixon was in at QB. If the Steelers play with passion and purpose Sunday, they'll have a chance. But their defense has let them down all year; if Roethlisberger can't bail them out again, they’re done. Take Ravens.

NY Jets at Indianapolis (-5.5)

Last week: Jets lost to Falcons 10-7; Colts beat Jaguars 35-31.

The pursuit of perfection continues. But for the Colts to become just the second team in NFL history to open a season 15-0, it might require significant contributions from several backups.

 Coach Jim Caldwell has been vague regarding playing time for his starters, which could be an indication QB Peyton Manning, wide receiver Reggie Wayne, running back Joseph Addai, tight end Dallas Clark, defensive ends Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis and other selected front-line players might not play to the finish Sunday. The goal remains being healthy for a deep run into the postseason, not 16-0.  

A couple of players are nearing individual milestones, and don't be surprised if the coaches do whatever possible -- and within the flow of the game -- to make them happen. Clark needs 11 receptions to become just the second tight end in NFL history with at least 100 catches. Wayne needs eight catches for his second 100-catch season. Manning is a history buff and understands the importance of certain achievements. If possible, he'll aid Clark and Wayne.

The Jets sustained a crippling blow in last week's home loss to Atlanta, but they remain in contention for a wild-card playoff berth. But it hinges on a win over the Colts. Rookie QB Mark Sanchez has been erratic, but the Jets' defense is one of the league's best. The defense might have to carry the day and could feast on Colts rookie QB Curtis Painter if he plays extensively in place of Manning.

Once again, after throwing three picks against Atlanta, Sanchez told reporters he must be smarter with the ball. But he has said that numerous times this season and hasn't been able to marry those thoughts with his actions. Seventeen of the rookie's 20 interceptions have come in five multiple-interception games, all of which, naturally, the Jets have lost. He must stop forcing throws and locking in on receivers for the Jets a chance to succeed.

First-year head coach Rex Ryan has taking some unusual tacks this season and took another one this week when he told his team the specific results of other games (plus a Jets' victory over Indy) that need to happen to give the Jets a chance to control their own destiny heading into the regular season's final week. The Jets must stay focused, no matter if starters or backups are in the game for the Colts, and no matter what is happening on the out-of-town scoreboard.

Selected starters, including Manning, might be on a play count Sunday. Can they do enough in what might be limited playing time to build a lead? More important, if the starters get in front, can the backups hold the lead? Liberal substitution might be most detrimental on defense. If Freeney and Mathis are joined on the sideline by linebackers Gary Brackett and Clint Session and safety Antoine Bethea, Jets running back Thomas Jones might be too much to handle.

Sanchez has shown promise during his rookie season with 12 touchdown passes. But he's also given too many reminders that he's a rookie with 20 interceptions and assorted bad decisions. Even if Freeney and Mathis see limited playing time, defensive coordinator Larry Coyer must find ways to pressure Sanchez. Backup Eric Foster is coming off a two-sack game at Jacksonville and can be a force whether he lines up at end or tackle. It's more likely the defense will rely on occasional blitzes to confuse Sanchez and force him into bad plays. Second-year pro Philip Wheeler likely will play a lot and could be used in blitzing situations.

If Painter sees his first action of the season, the coaches must keep him out of difficult situations. The game figures to be a low-scoring affair, especially if Manning's playing time is limited, so turnovers and bad decisions will be magnified. Painter has a decent grasp of the offense, but he has yet to run it in a regular season. The Jets' defense is capable of disrupting a veteran QB with linebacker Bart Scott, defensive end Shaun Ellis and the rest. It can totally dominate an inexperienced QB.

Colts players want to play out the string and make a run at 16-0 on the way to a 19-0 season. The Indianapolis coaches are more focused on being as healthy as possible going into postseason. Look for the coaches to win the debate. Even so, the Colts are a resourceful bunch. If Manning and the starters can get off to a good start, the backups are solid enough to hang on, but barely. Take points and Jets.

Dallas at Washington (+6.5)

Last week: Cowboys beat Saints 24-17; Redskins lost to Giants 45-12.

The Redskins were terrible last week in a primetime game that was a deviation from their recent good form. Washington's offensive line is bad and getting worse, especially if right tackle Stephon Heyer can't play because of a knee injury. So the Redskins just aren't in a position to do much offensively against Dallas, and QB Jason Campbell could get pummeled.

The Cowboys don't have a terrific December record, and Washington's defense has enough pride to play much better after last week's disaster. But the Cowboys will control both lines and steadily wear down the Redskins. Take Cowboys.

Seattle at Green Bay (-13.5)

Last week: Seahawks lost to Buccaneers 24-7; Packers lost to Steelers 37-36.

There's no reason to think the Seahawks will come up with a winning performance Sunday, unless the Packers decide not to show up.

After losing to Pittsburgh last week, that's not likely. Expect Rodgers to have his way with the Seahawks' 29th-ranked pass defense and for TE Jermichael Finley to make more big plays. Take Packers.

Oakland at Cleveland (-3.5)

Last week: Raiders beat Broncos 20-19; Browns beat Chiefs 41-34.

Ghosts of Cleveland quarterbacks past will haunt the Dawg Pound, as one former Brown, either Frye or Gradkowski, will start for the Raiders, and with Brady Quinn lost for the final two games, it will put the home's team passing game back in the hands of Derek Anderson.

With that shaky QB situation on both sides, look for plenty more running, as the presidentially named Jerome Harrison and Michael Bush go for big-game encores against two more shoddy run defenses. Take Raiders.

Kansas City at Cincinnati (-13.5)

Last week: Chiefs lost to Browns 41-34; Bengals lost to Chargers 27-24.

Poor weather conditions are in the forecast, so Mother Nature could play the role of equalizer during Kansas City's visit to Paul Brown Stadium in Cincinnati. However, neither sleet nor snow nor freezing temperatures should be able to stop the Bengals from crashing the postseason party for only the second time (2005) since the 1990 season.

The Bengals swept the AFC North (6-0), but they are 0-3 against the AFC West, having lost all three games to the Broncos, Raiders and Chargers in the final minute. The time is now for redemption. Look for the Bengals to get a two-score lead, bleed the clock and tear the ribbons and wrapping paper off an AFC North championship. Take Bengals.

Buffalo at Atlanta (-8.5)

Last week: Bills lost to Patriots 17-10; Falcons beat Jets 10-7.

The Falcons want to reach a 6-2 mark in the Georgia Dome this season. They are 12-3 overall under second-year coach Mike Smith at home and have dropped the last two. They'll want to get the Georgia Dome rocking in the 2009 home finale. Take Falcons.

Carolina at NY Giants (-6.5)

Last week: Panthers beat Vikings 26-7; Giants beat Redskins 45-12.

The Giants' desperation helped fuel a 45-12 rout of the Redskins on Monday; can they exploit it again? Eli Manning is playing at a high level and no doubt Coach John Fox will do everything in his power to disrupt Manning and try to confuse him, no easy task.

Figure the Panthers' Steve Smith will be given extra attention to prevent the big plays that have hurt the Giants in past weeks, meaning there won't be an extra defender in the box to stop Carolina's lethal running game. Fox presumably is coaching for his job; his club likely won't go down without a fight. Take points and Panthers.

Tampa Bay at New Orleans (-14.5)

Last week: Buccaneers beat Seahawks 24-7; Saints lost to Cowboys 24-17.

The Saints will be looking to take out their frustrations on Tampa Bay, which isn't great news for the Buccaneers. New Orleans will be motivated to play its best ball, both to wash out the bad taste from last week and to regain some momentum heading into the playoffs.

The Saints have shown some cracks in the armor in recent weeks, but when they play well, they can pile up points in a hurry but, not by a couple of TD’s. Take points and Buccaneers.

Jacksonville at New England (-7.5)

Last week: Jaguars lost to Colts 35-31; Patriots beat Bills 17-10.

This is the Patriots' final home game, a chance for them to finish perfect at Gillette Stadium. To do so, they'll have to avoid some of the mistakes they've made over the previous weeks. There can't be a collective letdown after halftime.

Coach Bill Belichick's team can't repeat the same offensive inconsistency. Brady must be sharper. The Jaguars have had three more days to prepare, and they may be ready with some tricks. But mostly, Jacksonville is just tough and physical. They hand the ball to Jones-Drew and dare opponents to stop it. If the Patriots can buckle their chinstraps, they should be able to handle it but the Jags keep it close. Take points and Jaguars.

St-Louis at Arizona (-13.5)

Last week: Rams lost to Texans 16-13; Cardinals beat Lions 31-24.

Bottom line: If the Cardinals take this game seriously, it should be over early. The Rams just don't match up well against them.

Rams cornerback Ron Bartell this week called Houston's Andre Johnson the best receiver in the league. Larry Fitzgerald might have something to say about that. The Cardinals should win this one by 20 or so, but they have a way of making most games interesting. Take points and Rams.

Detroit at San Francisco (-11.5)

Last week: Lions lost to Cardinals 31-24; 49ers lost to Eagles 27-13.

The 49ers have a rare opportunity as the season draws to a close. With winnable games against Detroit (2-12) and St, Louis (1-13), they have a chance to avoid a losing season for the first time since 2002.

The Lions, meanwhile, want to see progress from young players like Matthew Stafford and, more importantly, would like to build some momentum going into 2010. Look for a slow start from both teams, but for the 49ers to pull away in the second half. Take points and Lions.

Minnesota at Chicago (+6.5)

Last week: Vikings lost to Panthers 26-7; Bears lost to Ravens 31-7.

Expect the Bears to play much better than they did in their first game against the Vikings. One reason: They've already seen Minnesota, which helps. But they're also at their home field and not on artificial turf with the loudspeaker system pumping in extra noise, as many suspect occurs at the Metrodome.

 Chicago will be in the cold and looking to finish strong to help save coach Lovie Smith's job. The Bears have been better at home when it comes to avoiding lopsided games. Take Bears.

 

By: Aengus Moorehead @ 12:24 | Category: Football  | Comments: 0 | Permalink