Week15

December 16 2009 @ 21:43

Greetings Lasses and Lads.

My upset of the week: Colts (-6.5) at Jaguars.

My no-brainer of the week: Texans (-9.5) at Rams.

My record against the spread:

Last week: 8-8.

Season: 104-104.

 

Indianapolis at Jacksonville (+6.5)

Last week: Colts beat Broncos 28-16; Jaguars lost to Dolphins 14-10.

Just when it appeared Jacksonville whiffed on a prime opportunity with its loss to Miami, it turns out the team's playoff hopes are still alive.

The Jags must win their three remaining games to secure a wild-card berth, and with the team announcing a sellout (the first by the franchise all season), and the undefeated division-rival Colts coming to town, the stage appears set for a hotly contested showdown on Thursday night.

The first time the teams met, a failed two-point conversion run by the Jags in the fourth quarter is all that separated the teams in Indianapolis' 14-12 victory in the season opener. It was one of closest games of the Colts' 13-0 run. There's been talk that Indianapolis -- having already clinched home-field advantage for the playoffs -- will sit key players against the Jags. But Colts coach Jim Caldwell dismissed that notion, saying that the health of several key players is the only factor that will limit playing time.

As of Tuesday, Indianapolis had listed 29 players on the injury report including: running back Joseph Addai, offensive tackles Ryan Diem and Tony Ugoh and defensive ends Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis. J

Jacksonville, meanwhile, plays its most important game of the season up to this point hampered by injuries, too. Starting fullback Greg Jones is likely out, while the status for starting cornerback Rashean Mathis, defensive tackle John Henderson and receiver Mike Sims-Walker remain question marks.

The Jaguars are in a must-win mode against a bitter unbeaten division rival. The Jags are 5-2 at Jacksonville Municipal Stadium, but that includes three-point wins over the Chiefs, Rams and Bills. Peyton Manning and the Colts can put Jacksonville's character to the test by jumping out to an early lead and making it fight to keep its wild-card playoff hopes alive.

Running back Maurice Jones-Drew can take over a game with his blend of power and speed. He has eclipsed the 1,000-yard mark for the first time, is averaging 4.5 yards per carry and has 14 rushing TDs. The keys to coordinator Larry Coyer's run defense are swarming to the ball and gang-tackling with linebackers Gary Brackett and Clint Session and safeties Melvin Bullitt and Antoine Bethea. Brackett and Session are undersized but tenacious.

 Jones-Drew is in a slump. The best way to get him out of it is to feed him the ball against the Colts' banged-up front seven. Given the Colts' injury situation, their coaches must decide whether winning one game is as important as remaining healthy for the postseason. If the Jags can pound away with a physical ground game, it will force Indy's coaches to make that decision quickly.

Because of Jacksonville's physical nature and Indianapolis' injury situation, it's likely the Colts at some point will sit key players to rest them for the playoffs. The Jags must take advantage.

The key for Jacksonville is to limit explosive gains in the passing game with mistake-free play in the secondary. In addition, the Jags must keep the game close by limiting Indianapolis' possessions.

The best way to do that is to establish the running game and maintain drives. But that could be tough because it appears that Jones-Drew is finally showing signs of wear.  Manning and the Colts instinctively will try to win the game with their best assets but a loss will without him won’t make much of a difference in their mindset. However, it is desperation time for the Jags and they will cover. Take points and Jaguars.

Dallas at New Orleans (-6.5)

Last week: Cowboys lost to Chargers 20-17; Saints beat Falcons 26-23.

Despite recent scares, the Saints are 13-0 -- one of seven teams ever to reach that mark. They must decide soon if they want to go for 16-0 or rest their starters for the playoffs. But entering Saturday's game, they are full speed ahead as they try to clinch the No. 1 seed. They have a 1.5-game lead over the 11-2 Minnesota Vikings, who would win a tie-breaker if it came to that.

The Cowboys, meanwhile, are threatening to sabotage another season with a December collapse after losing their past two games to fall to 8-5. Dallas is now 3-7 after Dec. 1 under Coach Wade Philips, and 18-36 after Dec. 1 since 1996, including a 0-4 mark in the playoffs.

The Saints have struggled in narrow wins at Washington and Atlanta, but having pulled them out in the end only adds to their growing confidence. New Orleans played its best game of the season three weeks ago in a Monday night game in the Superdome against New England, with MVP candidate Drew Brees earning the highest possible passer rating of 158.3. There should be a similar atmosphere in the Dome this week for the Saturday night showdown against Dallas, which could help inspire another dominant performance from Brees and the Saints.

A national TV audience. The quest for an undefeated season. An explosive offensive attack. The Cowboys, more than any other game this season, must make sure they don't get blown out in the first quarter, where the Saints have been productive and the Cowboys have not.

New Orleans has scored 71 points in the first quarter, while allowing 85. Dallas has not scored a first possession touchdown since Thanksgiving Day last year and has totaled just 43 points this season. The Saints' offense revs up in the second and third quarters. If Dallas struggles to stop New Orleans in the first quarter, there's a good chance this game will be over by halftime.

In their most impressive victories, the Saints jumped to early leads, then run out the clock and forced opponents to become one-dimensional. But when needed, they have been able to make up deficits quickly, most notably erasing a 10-point deficit at Washington in the final six minutes two weeks ago.

DeMarcus Ware strained his neck in the fourth quarter against San Diego last week and probably won't play against the Saints. That makes the Cowboys' task of trying to sack Brees more difficult. Ware leads the team with nine sacks. No one else has more than four. And New Orleans has allowed 15 sacks in 433 pass attempts.

The Saints lead the NFL with 35.8 points per game and are within striking distance of the NFL record of 36.8, set by the New England Patriots in 2007. Brees is the NFL's top-rated passer, and he leads the league with 32 touchdown passes. He has an embarrassment of riches at his disposal, with third-year receiver Robert Meachem emerging as a consistent playmaker alongside receivers Marques Colston and Devery Henderson, tight end Jeremy Shockey and tailbacks Reggie Bush, Pierre Thomas and Mike Bell, among others.

The Cowboys have been inconsistent on offense, but when they're on, they can match points with New Orleans' high-powered offense. Dallas comes into this game as the more desperate team, having lost its past two games to threaten its playoff position.

But the Saints play up to the competition in their most high-profile games, especially in the Superdome, where they dominated the Patriots and New York Giants. The Cowboys must play their best game and hope the Saints play a third consecutive flat game to pull off the road upset. However, a customary garbage TD will keep the boys in play.  The Cowboys cover.

Green Bay at Pittsburgh (-1.5)

Last week: Packers beat Bears 21-14; Steelers lost to Browns 13-6.

The Packers are winners of five straight and have the upper hand in getting one of the two NFC wild-card spots. On the other hand, the Steelers have lost five in a row and must win their remaining three games to maintain even a slim chance they could get a wild-card spot at 9-7.

But after losses to the Chiefs, Raiders and Browns, there is some question whether they can win any of their remaining three games, let alone all of them. Beyond that, Sunday's game matches two of the most storied and successful franchises in the NFL. The Packers have never played a regular-season game in Heinz Field and will be making their first appearance in Pittsburgh since 1998.

Despite good numbers, QB Aaron Rodgers hasn't been able to lead the team past the middle of the pack in red-zone efficiency. Some of the blame might rest on coach Mike McCarthy's play-calling. He tends to go with empty backfields and flood the area. McCarthy could isolate TE Jermichael Finley more on the outside or give RB Ryan Grant a chance to finish the drive.

Although three of Pittsburgh's losses during their five-game losing streak came against bottom dwellers, they fared better against teams with a winning record, beating the Chargers, Vikings and Broncos during a five-game winning streak earlier in the season.

The Steelers haven't allowed a 100-yard rusher in 35 consecutive games, including postseason, but they allowed a season-high 171 yards to the Browns. Their streak might be in jeopardy against Ryan Grant, who had 137 yards on 20 carries and scored two touchdowns against the Bears.

The defense installed in Green Bay by defensive coordinator Dom Capers is essentially the same one he installed when he came to the Steelers as defensive coordinator under Bill Cowher in 1992. It will be up to QB Ben Roethlisberger, who was sacked eight times against the Browns, to recognize their blitz tendencies.

For the first time all season, the fight and desire appear to have left the Steelers. That was never more apparent than in their 13-6 loss to the anemic Browns, a game in which they didn't even turn the ball over. Their defense hasn't intercepted a pass in five consecutive games, and their ability to stop the run becomes more suspect each week.

Even one of the top playmakers, OLB James Harrison, the NFL's defensive player of the year in 2008, hasn't had a sack in three games and hasn't forced a fumble -- his specialty -- in eight games. Pittsburgh has lost all its confidence and is having a difficult time doing anything right. The Steelers are an ostentatious team however; pride has always been their utmost priority and they will deliver. Take Steelers.

Cincinnati at San Diego (-6.5)

Last week: Bengals lost to Vikings 30-10; Chargers beat Cowboys 20-17.

The winner will have the inside track on getting the AFC's No.2 seed and accompanying first-week bye and guaranteed home divisional game. The Chargers (10-3) are currently second in the conference, the Bengals (9-4) third. Neither team has clinched their division yet, though the Bengals can win the AFC North with a victory or a Baltimore Ravens loss. The Chargers can clinch the AFC West by winning or tying Cincinnati and having the Denver Broncos tie or by the Broncos losing.

The Chargers' 27.8 points per game is fourth in the NFL, while the Bengals are allowing just 16.7 points a game, tied for second-fewest. The Chargers have scored at least 31 points in five of their past eight games; the Bengals just allowed 30 (to Minnesota) this past Sunday.

Antonio Cromartie and Chad Ochocinco, two of the biggest talkers in the league, will face off at least part of the afternoon. While Ochocinco's production has tapered a bit, he remains a threat and is closing in on another 1,000-yard season. Cromartie is almost impenetrable and quarterbacks are staying away from him. The two attention hounds will likely spend a good portion of the day jawing and could even provide some actual highlights with their play.

In order to upset the Chargers, who have won an NFL-record 16 straight December games, the Bengals must inject some life into a dormant passing game. This is the ideal time to get creative with flea flickers and reverses because the Chargers won't be expecting anything unusual from an offense built around a strong running game. The Bengals responded with victories after their first three losses. If they don't rebound strong after last week's debacle in Minnesota, they'll wave goodbye to a first-round playoff bye.

The Bengals have one thing going for them. All three of their opponents in the AFC North (Baltimore, Cleveland and Pittsburgh) use the same 3-4 defense that the Chargers have installed. The familiarity will be a plus for the Bengals, who should be able to run effectively against San Diego's No. 21 run defense. Staying out of third-and-long situations will allow Cincinnati to move the chains and get in position to score.

The explosive Chargers are heavily armed with dangerous playmakers in QB Philip Rivers, TBs LaDainian Tomlinson and Darren Sproles, TE Antonio Gates and WR Vincent Jackson. Containing the run and applying pressure on Rivers are keys to a victory for the Bengals, who cannot allow the elusive Sproles to break loose for any big punt or kickoff returns.

Bengals cornerbacks Leon Hall and Johnathan Joseph are talented enough to shut down the deep passing game. It's over the middle against the safety-thin Bengals where the Chargers can do the most damage.

The Chargers have allowed their last four opponents to average 5.1 yards per carry. Most of those opponents, however, have not been rushing a lot after halftime because the Chargers are leading by enough to make the opponent one-dimensional. This means the offense needs to score and the defense must make crucial stops and not allow the big running play.

Cincinnati has 28 drives of 10 or more plays, third-most in the NFL. The Bengals rank second in the NFL in both average number of plays on their scoring drives (8.98) and average time of their scoring drives (4:19). The Chargers got Dallas off the field on seven-of-eight third downs last week but have struggled intermittently throughout the season stopping drives when given the opportunity with third-and-longs.

The Bengals' best chance is likely to keep the ball away from Philip Rivers. Thinned by injuries in the secondary and more vulnerable to the pass anyway, the Bengals just might not be able to match up with the Chargers' array of targets. The Chargers are on a roll; playing as well as they have in two years, and are at home. They appear also to have played better against quality opponents than the Bengals. Even if Cincinnati moves the ball, which it probably will, the Chargers are making big plays when necessary and keeping teams from the end zone. Take points and Bengals.

NY Giants at Washington (+2.5)

Last week: Giants lost to Eagles 45-38; Redskins beat Raiders 34-13.

If the fading New York Giants want to stay in playoff contention, they can't afford to slip up against the 4-9 Redskins. New York trails Dallas by one game for second place in the NFC East. More importantly, the Cowboys lead for the second and final wild card spot as well. Green Bay is the only other NFC team in contention for a wild card spot with a winning record, so it could be a two-team race between Dallas and New York for that spot.

Washington has only won two of its last five games, but the Redskins have been competitive in each game. Despite being five games under .500, they've only been outscored by 17 points.

Their last three losses have been by a combined seven points vs. Dallas, Philadelphia and New Orleans. One thing they haven't done yet is beat an NFC East opponent; they've won at least one division game per season since 1993.

An improved offense has made them more competitive.

Offensive Coordinator Sherman Lewis has taken over as a play-caller, but he's received lots of help in the booth and is only responsible for pass plays. It's been the game plans, which Lewis doesn't craft, and the execution by the players -- especially quarterback Jason Campbell -- that has made a difference. He's posted three 100-plus passer rating days in the past five games.

The Redskins are not known as a big-play offense but they have some capability, especially with Santana Moss. The Giants are known as a big play waiting to happen with their suspect defense, which continues to have baffling communication issues this late in the season. The basic concept of players knowing and carrying out their assignments will go a long way in containing a Jason Campbell led Redskins attack that certainly is not overwhelming in any way. The Giants may have to simplify some of their defensive calls in order to achieve this.

A combination of short kickoffs from Lawrence Tynes and short punts from Jeff Feagles too often leave the already-sagging Giants defense with bad field position. Teams regularly get the ball out near the 30-yard line on kickoffs and Feagles is sending the ball out of bounds barely 40 yards downfield. Tynes may have to go with more of his squib and mortar kicks at FedEx Field and hope for fortunate bounces.

The Redskins present problems in that they are solid in stopping the pass with CBs Fred Smoot and Carlos Rogers, although the Giants have had some success in the past targeting the Washington safeties. Still, the Redskins are more vulnerable on the ground and that's where the Giants need to attack, especially if they can take advantage of the aggressiveness of Washington's up-field pass rushers.

New York's OL is no longer considered one of the best. They have not opened running lanes as in the past. Also, the Redskins have applied more pressure thanks to Brian Orakpo and Andre Carter. Too often QB Eli Manning has been comfortable in the pocket vs. them. New York is starting a rookie RT; take advantage.

New York's DL has struggled, but it still has rushers who can hurt Washington's tackles. The Redskins have dropped three straight to New York because of big plays made by the Giants' ends. QB Jason Campbell has been more decisive and quick with his releases, which helps. If that continues, they'll make big plays vs. this secondary.

This will be a difficult game for New York. One reason the Giants have won three straight over Washington is because of their line play. But neither side of the ball is performing as expected. The Redskins' OL remains an issue, but game planning has helped overcome glaring holes.

 The big concern is not allowing big plays downfield. Or, rather, a lot of them. New York will make them considering Washington surrenders them in most games. The key will be the Redskins' ability to pressure Manning and force mistakes. They have been close against good teams. Right now, the Giants aren't a good team but will score enough to cover. Take Giants.

Miami at Tennessee (-2.5)

Last week: Dolphins beat Jaguars 14-10; Titans beat Rams 47-7.

Something has to give in this one. The Dolphins and Titans both enter the game on a roll, and with plenty of momentum. Chris Johnson gives the Titans the edge in this one, however. He'll allow the Titans to control the football, and you can pretty much put him down for 100.

No matter who quarterbacks the Titans, the plan will be too feed Johnson. On defense, the Titans will also make enough plays to hold on and keep their postseason dreams alive. Take Titans.

 New England at Buffalo (+6.5)

Last week: Patriots beat Panthers 20-10; Bills beat Chiefs 16-10.

Given the string of shaky road performances by the Patriots, extending their winning streak in this series is no sure thing. The Bills want to finish strong for interim head coach Perry Fewell, who needs to run the table to have a shot (albeit a long shot) to get the permanent job. They also would love to play the role of spoiler as the Patriots are fighting off challenges by the Miami Dolphins and New York Jets in the AFC East.

At some point, the Patriots have to show they're capable of playing somewhere other than the friendly confines of Gillette Stadium. They'll play with a greater sense of urgency and prove to be the superior team in this matchup again. Take Patriots.

Arizona at Detroit (+10.5)

Last week: Cardinals beat 49ers; Lions lost to Ravens 48-3.

This is a complete mismatch no matter how you slice it. The Lions aren't going to be able to score much against Arizona's physical defense and the Cardinals' offense could score on seven straight possessions. Hey, if the Ravens can do it (which they did last week), then it shouldn't be such a tall order for the high-flying Cardinals.

The Lions have serious deficiencies in their secondary because they bust coverages on deep passing routes and they don't tackle well in the ground game, allowing big runs. Take Cardinals.

San Francisco at Philadelphia (-8.5)

Last week: 49ers lost to Cardinals; Eagles beat Giants 45-38.

The playoffs are so close for the Eagles; they can almost reach out and grab it. Even after San Francisco's impressive win against the Cardinals gave the Niners some momentum, the Eagles aren't likely to turn the ball over seven times.

San Francisco won't have an answer for the deep-threat combination of Donovan McNabb and DeSean Jackson. But the 49ers cover. Take points and 49ers.

Atlanta at NY Jets (-5.5)

Last week: Falcons lost to Saints 26-23; Jets beat Buccaneers 26-3.

Although a 2-6 skid has dropped Atlanta to 6-7, the Falcons are the most dangerous team the Jets will have played since losing to the Patriots. The Jets can't expect to play the same way they have during their winning streak.

Even without QB Matt Ryan and RB Michael Turner, the Falcons' offense put up 23 points against New Orleans, so the Jets will have to make plays on offense, rather than focus on not turning the ball over, as they have done the past three games.

The playoff-hungry Jets do have more motivation than the fading Falcons, though, and that should make a difference, especially in the fourth quarter but the Jets have a tendency against tough teams…it will be close. Take Falcons.

Chicago at Baltimore (-9.5)

Last week: Bears lost to Packers 21-14; Ravens beat Lions 48-3.

It's getting late in the year, and the difference for a lot of teams is that some have something to play for, and the others don't.

The Ravens are at home, and in playoff contention. The Bears have played poorly over the last month, and have nothing to play for. Take Ravens.

Cleveland at Kansas City (-1.5)

Last week: Browns beat Steelers 13-6; Chiefs lost to Bills 16-10.

There appears little to choose from between two forlorn programs. Neither team is capable of getting much done on offense, and both teams show considerable weakness on defense. So the game should come down to big plays and turnovers.

The Chiefs are forcing turnovers on defense, and RB Jamaal Charles gives them an edge to their running game they previously lacked. Look for Kansas City to win a close game that certainly could go the other way. Take Chiefs.

Houston at St-Louis (+9.5)

Last week: Texans beat Seahawks 34-7; Rams lost to Titans 47-7.

QB Matt Schaub is overlooked in the AFC but is an emerging quarterback. If the Texans are on their game, they could light up the St. Louis defense. The Rams are coming off one of their worst drubbings in franchise history and the frustration is knee deep at Rams Park.

Adding to the woes was the decision to release RG Richie Incognito, who despite his knucklehead moments was a good run blocker and a physical presence. Have the Rams reached the breaking point, and just given in to what has been a disastrous year? Take Texans.

 Oakland at Denver (-12.5

Last week: Raiders lost to Redskins 34-13; Broncos lost to Colts 28-16.

The first meeting was no contest. The Broncos were the more physical team and dominated the Raiders on both sides of the ball. Oakland won't want a repeat of that blowout, but the Raiders also aren't good enough to beat a Broncos team that is motivated by a playoff race and does a good job not playing down to its competition.

Denver's running game should be able to move the chains all game, as it did the first time the teams played, and Oakland's uncertainty at quarterback will bog down the offense and ruin the Raiders' chances of keeping pace. Take Broncos.

Tampa Bay at Seattle (-6.5)

Last week: Buccaneers lost to Jets 26-3; Seahawks lost to Texans 34-7.

Seattle has had its share of problems, but beating up on the league's less fortunate teams hasn't been one of them. Three of its five victories have come against the Rams (two) and the Lions.

The Buccaneers have not scored a touchdown in their past nine quarters, and they have not had a rushing touchdown since Nov. 15. Seattle has shut out two of its six opponents at home this season, and Tampa Bay very well could be the third. Take Seahawks.

Minnesota at Carolina (+7.5)

Last week: Vikings beat Bengals 30-10; Panthers lost to Patriots 20-10.

Under ordinary circumstances, this would have been a fascinating game to watch, as an outdoor winter game would have been a good barometer of how Brett Favre might play in the postseason. But right now, the Panthers' run defense is a mess, meaning Adrian Peterson and Chester Taylor could end up having huge days.

That will take most of the pressure off Favre from having to make too many plays. Coupled with the Vikings' aggressive defense teeing off against a Panthers' offense that can barely make sweat at the moment, this one has the potential to get ugly in a hurry. Take Vikings.

 

 

 

By: Aengus Moorehead @ 21:43 | Category: Football  | Comments: 0 | Permalink