Week 14

December 9 2009 @ 19:39

Greetings Lasses and Lads.

My upset of the week: Chargers (+2.5) at Cowboys.

My no-brainer of the week: Packers (-2.5) at Bears.

My record against the spread:

Last week: 7-9.

Season: 96-96.

 

Pittsburgh at Cleveland (+9.5)

Last week: Steelers lost to Raiders 27-24; Browns lost to Chargers 30-23.

The Steelers are living on the edge. They have been there before, but seldom this close to falling so soon. At 6-6, with more daunting games against the Packers and Ravens up next, they can't even count on getting in if they win out. They can probably count on winning at Cleveland, but even that wasn't easy the last time they were there, winning 10-6 in 2008.

The Steelers are loaded with veterans known for clutch performances, and their persona always makes them a team that warms up to cold weather. Yet, their most important player on defense, Troy Polamalu, likely won't play.

Pittsburgh won four of its past five last year after a mid-season lull. In their other recent Super Bowl season, 2005, they won their last four games on the heels of a three-game losing streak.

The Browns are playing for the satisfaction of wrecking their arch-rival's postseason hopes. It would be quite a shock, since they have not stood in the way while the Steelers have reached the postseason in four of the past five years.

In October, Ben Roethlisberger  passed for 417 yards against Cleveland in a win that was way more one-sided that the 27-14 final score. But, Roethlisberger doesn't always have the last laugh against Cleveland. He was carted off the field with a concussion late in the first half of last year's regular-season finale. It was the scariest moment of his career. It didn't seem to bother him the next time he faced Cleveland and made a shaky secondary look miserable.

This could be one of the weirdest stadium scenes the NFL has witnessed. The Steelers always have plenty of their own fans at road games, but in this case, there is a great chance it will be a solid majority. Numerous Browns fans have long since dropped tickets onto the re-sale market, finding few interested buyers among their own.

Steeler fans have flocked to cheap tickets to a game at Cleveland. The Browns have lost 12 straight to the Steelers, and 18 of the past 19. The scene might resemble a Christmas Eve, 2005 game at Cleveland when about 30 percent of the crowd was in yellow and black at kickoff, changing to 99 percent by the end of a blowout.

Injuries have depleted the Browns at linebacker and in the secondary, and they don't seem to have anybody who can cover the middle of the field. Chargers TE Antonio Gates had a career-high 167 receiving yards against them on Sunday, so the Steelers need to get TE Heath Miller, who has just two catches the past two games, more involved.

After allowing four kick returns for touchdowns in five games, the Steelers have not allowed any in their past two. But the returner this time is Joshua Cribbs, who had a 98-yard scoring return against them in the first meeting. Teams have been kicking away from Cribbs, but he had a 42 and 31-yard return against the Chargers.

Brady Quinn is in his third year with the Browns, but this will be his first game against the team's rival. His poise will be tested against a defense that has rattled other Cleveland quarterbacks. Quinn will have to keep functioning after taking some hits, which everyone knows are coming; few hit harder than OLB James Harrison. Quinn's struggles this year are owed largely to waiting a bit too long to make a decision and then throwing too cautiously when he does. He must be tough, decisive and spontaneous to have any shot against the Steelers.

Cleveland Defensive Coordinator Rob Ryan tried to do too much to get pressure on Roethlisberger in the Oct. 18 game. The result left players who hadn't yet grasped his system — or lacked the tools to execute certain calls — out of position. Roethlisberger, Santonio Holmes, Hines Ward and Heath Miller ate the coverage alive. Now, Ryan and his players have a better grasp of each other, but injuries have forced assorted position moves, and big plays were a problem Sunday against the Chargers. Ryan is good at timing blitzes and disguising coverages in ways that can give even experienced QBs trouble. The trick is to do that on a consistent basis. Ryan has little choice but to err on the side of taking too many gambles rather than not enough. Given the Browns' diluted personnel, Roethlisberger would destroy a vanilla scheme.

Round 2 draft pick WR Brian Robiskie looked lost for two months and then wasn't even dressing on game days. He came out of the blue with a crisp four-catch game against San Diego. Tall, skinny tight end Evan Moore was a Packer castoff who was making his Browns' debut against San Diego. He made a few acrobatic hands catches that made everyone wonder where the heck he has been. He had six catches in all. Running back Jerome Harrison came out of the doghouse to look like a decent replacement for injured feature back Jamal Lewis. And Quinn followed up a bad game at Cincinnati with a fairly impressive one against San Diego. If they can build on that, the Browns have a shot.

It's the strangest thing. The Steelers have lapsed into panic mode, talking about line-up changes and injury woes amid a four-game losing streak. The Browns are a 1-11 team acting as if a 30-23 loss to San Diego was a sure sign they are on the verge of a breakthrough. If the Steelers are without Polamalu and follow through on talk about starting two rookie cornerbacks, Quinn has a chance. He has been shut down by teams with experienced cover men, but his confidence seems to go way up when he senses his receivers have a chance to be open.

The loss to Oakland was a bit of a mirage, in that the Steelers were in scoring range all day, uncharacteristically blowing chances at touchdowns. Steeler’s coach Mike Tomlin's job isn't in trouble the way Eric Mangini's is, but Tomlin is acting as if he is under as much pressure as Mangini. Pittsburgh's iron-willed persona seems to have cracked in the process. Even at that, Cleveland's offensive arsenal doesn't compare to Pittsburgh's. Cleveland's defense has given up big plays all year and will get hit enough to make it hurt again. Take Steelers.

Denver at Indianapolis (-6.5)

Last week: Broncos beat Chiefs 44-13; Colts beat Titans 27-17.

Neither sideline will be lacking playoff motivation. With a win, the Colts clinch the No. 1 seed and home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. With an upset, the 8-4 Broncos keep the pressure on 9-3 San Diego in the race for the AFC West lead.  

Along with securing the top seed for the third time since 1999, the Colts can break New England's all-time league record for consecutive regular-season victories with a 22nd straight and surpass the San Francisco 49ers, who had 113 wins from 1990-99, as the league's winningest team in any decade.

The game might feature two of the more undersized and somewhat unheralded pass-rush threats. That would be the Colts' Robert Mathis, a 6-2, 245-pounder who ranks second on the team with 9.5 sacks, the Broncos' Elvis Dumervil, a 5-11, 260-pounder who leads the league with 15 sacks.

On the sideline, the Colts' Jim Caldwell (12-0) and the Broncos' Josh McDaniel (8-4) have combined for the most wins in league history by rookie coaches who have met during the regular season.

QB Kyle Orton is coming off an unusual game for him, in which he turned the ball over three times, including an ill-advised pass back to the middle of the field in the red zone. If the Broncos want to upset the Colts, Orton must be very careful with the ball, while picking his spots to throw downfield. Indianapolis has racked up 14 interceptions.

When the Colts get the lead, they can let ends Dwight Freeney and Mathis loose. If the Broncos do fall behind, their tackles need to be at their best. Ryan Clady hasn't been as dominant he was last year, and Tyler Polumbus is in line to make his fifth career start because of Ryan Harris' toe injury. If the Broncos need to help the tackles, they won't be able to use spread formations as effectively.

The Broncos have done an admirable job not allowing deep passes, but Peyton Manning can wear a defense out underneath. This isn't the week for the Broncos to sit back. Players like cornerback Champ Bailey and Andre Goodman have to be aggressive and make a big play or two that could swing the game in Denver's favor.

Orton has proven to be just what coach Josh McDaniel wanted when he acquired him in an offseason trade that sent Jay Cutler to the Bears. He's a good decision-maker and takes care of the football. The Colts' defense is at its best when Freeney and Mathis apply the pressure and the back seven come up with takeaways. If the Manning-led offense can establish an early lead, Orton might have to get away from a No. 9-ranked running game and do more than he's capable of in order to keep up.

Four-time Pro Bowl receiver Reggie Wayne remains one of the league's premier players at his position, but he's been relatively quiet of late. He has just seven receptions for 67 yards the past two games. Defenses are bracketing Wayne with a cornerback and safety, forcing Manning to look elsewhere. Look for offensive coordinator Tom Moore to counter that by moving Wayne around in the formation. The other receivers are picking up the slack for Wayne, but he needs to be a bigger contributor.

Manning continues to be the driving force behind the offense. He leads the league in yards (3,685) and completion percentage (70 percent) and has 25 touchdowns for a league-record 12th straight season. But the offense has shown balance recently behind RB Joseph Addai. That needs to continue. Addai hasn't put up gaudy numbers and he's averaging 63.8 yards over the past six games,  but he's gotten the tough yards and kept the chains moving. As long as Addai rushes for 65-70 yards per game and averages 4 yards per attempt, the offense is difficult to deal with.

So much is within reach for the Colts on Sunday. Clinching the No. 1 seed, a league-record 22nd regular-season win, a second 13-0 start in the past five seasons. Denver has a lot to play for, but Coach Jim Caldwell has done an outstanding job of keeping his team motivated and focused.

That won't change Sunday. Look for the Manning-led offense to make enough plays against the Broncos' No. 3-ranked scoring defense and the Freeney-led defense to put sufficient pressure on Orton. Take Colts.

Cincinnati at Minnesota (-6.5)

Last week: Bengals beat Lions 23-13; Vikings lost to Cardinals 30-17.

The Vikings and Bengals each have an opportunity to clinch a division championship Sunday. For the Vikings, winning the NFC North seemed like a formality for several weeks. But after being humbled by Arizona in a 30-17 loss Sunday that wasn't as close as the final score, Minnesota needs to get back on track.

The Vikings played their worst game of the season in all three phases. The special teams gave up a 64-yard punt return that set up a touchdown. The Vikings' vaunted defensive line couldn't pressure Kurt Warner, Brett Favre threw two interceptions and Adrian Peterson was stuffed.

The challenge for the 10-2 Vikings is to rebound against a physical Bengals team (9-3) that would clinch the AFC North with a win. The Vikings would clinch the NFC North with a win and a Green Bay loss.

The Bengals have a strong defense and have controlled games on the ground, but have been inconsistent recently. They lost 20-17 at Oakland three weeks ago and mustered just 16 points in a win over Cleveland. They're coming off a 23-13 win against Detroit, which isn't exactly something to celebrate.

The Bengals will play without their best run defender, defensive tackle Domata Peko, who on Monday had arthroscopic surgery on his right knee. Cincinnati ranks No. 2 against the run.

 To beat the Vikings, who are coming off a disappointing performance at Green Bay, and join the playoffs, they must be focused and play a complete game. Considering three different players (Bernard Scott, Larry Johnson and Cedric Benson) have rushed for more than 100 yards the past three weeks, the team has proved it can run the ball. The goal now is to elevate the passing game and get it on par with the rushing attack. After all, one-dimensional teams get exposed come playoff time.

With his strength, speed and incredible cutback ability, Adrian Peterson is a threat to score every time he touches the ball. It is critical for the front seven to provide gap control and get good spacing. The line must anchor at the point of attack, with the linebackers filling the gaps and patrolling the cutback lanes. The Bengals don't want Peterson to beat them. They'll take their chances with quarterback Brett Favre. Containing Peterson and pressuring Favre are critical ingredients for a Cincinnati win.

The Bengals rely on their ground game to control the clock and carry the offense, which has had trouble establishing the passing game. Running back Cedric Benson has had five games with at least 25 carries. The Vikings rank No. 3 against the run, essentially because teams have fallen behind and been forced to throw. This will be a true test for defensive tackles Pat Williams and Kevin Williams.

The loss of Viking middle linebacker E.J. Henderson to a broken leg won't be easy to overcome because he was a team leader and was playing his best football of the season in recent weeks. He was a key factor in the run defense, often chasing down running backs near the line of scrimmage. Rookie Jasper Brinkley replaces Henderson in the starting lineup. Brinkley is big (6-1, 252), hits hard and plays the run well.

The Vikings didn't make a commitment to running the ball against Arizona. They came out passing and never established Adrian Peterson, who finished with 13 carries for 19 yards. Even if he's getting stuffed, Peterson needs to carry the ball more than 13 times. The Vikings' line needs to match Cincinnati's physical play on defense and get Peterson going in this game.

Despite their impressive records, Cincinnati and Minnesota have something to prove. The Vikings, embarrassed on prime-time TV Sunday night at Arizona, have feasted on teams with poor records, with losses coming against Arizona and Pittsburgh.

If they play well and defeat Cincinnati, it would go a long way toward proving the Arizona game was merely a one-game setback and not a sign of bigger problems. The Bengals want to prove they are a legitimate Super Bowl threat and play power football against the Vikings, who led the NFL in run defense the past three years. Take points and Bengals.

San Diego at Dallas (-2.5)

Last week: Chargers beat Browns 30-23; Cowboys lost to Giants 31-24.

Chargers coach Norv Turner, who won a Super Bowl ring in the '90s as the Cowboys' offensive coordinator, is the guy Jerry Jones passed over to hire Wade Phillips. Now, Turner can put a significant dent in the Cowboys' playoff hopes, while inching his own team closer to a home playoff game and the No. 2 seed in the AFC. It doesn't really get any better than that.

Unless, of course, you consider Turner's team plays its best football in December when the games matter most, while the Cowboys have a history of faltering after Thanksgiving Day. Consider: Turner is 10-0 after Dec. 1 and has won at least one playoff game each of the past two seasons. He took San Diego to the AFC championship game in the 2007 campaign. Phillips' Cowboys, on the other hand, are 3-6 after Dec. 1 and lost their only playoff game. They became the first No. 1 seed in the NFC to lose in the divisional round since the current playoff format was established in 1996.

This is all relevant because the Cowboys, who lost to the Giants last week, need to beat the Chargers and end the discussion about their inability to win in December. Last year, the Cowboys entered the month 8-4, just like this year, but went 1-3 and missed the playoffs.

The problem is that San Diego has won seven consecutive games and is one of the hottest teams in the league. If not for the undefeated Saints and Colts, much of the national attention would be focused on the Chargers.

No team has ever hoped to fall behind or start slowly, but doing so in mammoth Cowboys Stadium will make for a difficult day against Dallas' strong pass rush. The Chargers have led at least 7-0 in all but one game during their winning streak; consequently, San Diego's offense has been balanced and its defense has been able to play aggressively.

Getting to Tony Romo will be a arduous task for the Chargers which have left a lot of sacks on the field the past few weeks; their aggressive pass rushers have struggled with angles and in bringing down mobile quarterbacks. San Diego needs to rough up Romo and force him to get rid of the ball early.

Cowboys backs Marion Barber, Felix Jones and Tashard Choice each average at least 4.4 yards a carry, and they advance the ball in different ways. The Chargers have been much better against the run during their winning streak, but their defensive line is banged up and outside linebacker Shawne Merriman (foot) may not play. Add in a young secondary, and it's possible San Diego may not be able to stop the Cowboys on the ground.

Marion Barber is the hammer and the guy who gives the Cowboys an emotional boost. Tashard Choice is the steady backup and the Wildcat quarterback. Felix Jones is the guy who gives the running game juice. He has the speed and moves to create a big play every time he touches the ball. But the Cowboys haven't been able to get him untracked since he missed several weeks with a sprained knee. He had a 46-yard touchdown run on Thanksgiving Day against Oakland, but that has been the exception. He has just one run of more than 19 yards in the past six games. He had one at least that long in each of his first three games.

The Cowboys gave up a 74-yard touchdown pass last week to lumbering 265-pound back Brandon Jacobs. Chargers running backs LaDainian Tomlinson and Darren Soles are considerably more dangerous. The Chargers love to use L.T. on circle routes in the middle of the field and get him matched up on linebackers. Sproles is averaging 11.5 yards on 39 catches and has three touchdowns. The Chargers just want him to get the ball in space whether it's on screens or in the flat.

Some players, such as Bradie James, Jason Witten and Terence Newman, dwell on the Cowboys' December failures. They talk about the importance of having a breakthrough game so they don't have to discuss the issue anymore. Coach Wade Phillips and Tony Romo prefer to act as if the Cowboys' struggles in December are no big deal. Dallas can't get swept up in a feeling of "here we go again" if it has a bad play, or a bad series, or a bad half against the Chargers.

The Cowboys do not want a two-game losing streak going into their road trip against New Orleans next week because a potential three-game losing streak would be devastating. They will play with as much desperation as they have displayed in any game this season. The problem is San Diego, one of the league's best teams, can run it and throw it. Take Chargers.

Philadelphia at NY Giants (-1.5)

Last week: Eagles beat Falcons 34-7; Giants beat Cowboys 31-24.

How about a battle for first place as a reason to watch?

These late-season Giants-Eagles games always seem to have high stakes and this one is no exception. The Eagles and Cowboys (both 8-4) have a one-game lead on the Giants (7-5) and the Eagles are looking for a two-game season series sweep and their fourth consecutive victory over the Giants. Included in a five-game losing streak by the Giants was a 40-17 loss in Philadelphia, a rare blowout in a rivalry that is usually hotly contested.

No team has been affected by the greater awareness and concern about concussions than the Eagles. RB Brian Westbrook has missed the past three games and WR DeSean Jackson missed last week's game, both because of concussions.

Neither has been ruled out of this game. The return of one or both would be an instant spark. Westbrook did not play in the first meeting with the Giants and the Eagles didn't miss him, rushing for 180 yards. Jackson was a factor though, hauling in a 54-yard touchdown pass.

Donovan McNabb is often at his best late in the season, as the Eagles are 12-3 in December since 2006. The cold and possibly harsh weather conditions do not seem to bother McNabb, who is usually able to strong-arm the ball through the breeze.

The same cannot be said about Eli Manning, who has endured his share of problems in bad weather late in the season. The winds at Giants Stadium are notorious and this is most likely the last time these rivals will play in that building, which is set to close following this season.

 McNabb, who passed for 240 yards and three touchdowns in the Eagles' earlier win against the Giants, should have another field day against New York's struggling secondary. The Giants have allowed an average of 298 passing yards per game in its past three games and opponents are converting just under 50 percent of third downs against them. With DeSean Jackson expected to return from a concussion, the Eagles must make the vertical game a priority.

The Giants sacked McNabb twice in the first game, but for the most part McNabb had plenty of time to make his progressions and hit targets in stride. He tossed touchdowns of 54 yards and 23 yards mainly because left tackle Jason Peters and right tackle Winston Justice kept the Giants' star-studded pass rushers off McNabb's back. The Giants got an effective rush against Dallas by standing up his pass rushers to confuse the Cowboys' offensive line. The Eagles need to be ready for whatever tricks come from Giants coordinator Bill Sheridan's bag this game.

To feel comfortable, the Eagles need K David Akers to get over his Giants Stadium hex. He's made just four of his last eight kicks there and had his two blocked last year there. The swirling winds around the Meadowlands seem to play mind tricks with Akers, who usually has the distance there but not the accuracy. Also, the Eagles need better kickoff coverage against Giants KR Domenik Hixon, the reigning NFC special teams player of the week. The Eagles have rolled out the red carpet for returners this year. They're allowing 24.4 yards per return.

Even though the Giants allowed a career-high 392 passing yards and three touchdown passes by Tony Romo, they were able to survive the onslaught because they made the Cowboys one-dimensional, limiting Dallas to a season-low 45 rushing yards. The Giants' run defense has become more athletic with the insertion of DE Mathias Kiwanuka and LB Jonathan Goff, helping the gang-tackling approach that is needed.

Dealing with opposing tight ends hasn't been easy for the Giants, who have difficulty with their coverage down the field whether they put a linebacker or a cornerback on a quality pass-catcher. The Giants are coming off a 31-24 victory over the Cowboys but their work against Jason Witten wasn't the reason why. Witten was really never stopped as he caught 14 passes for 156 yards, mostly against LB Michael Boley. The Eagles' Brent Celek leads his team in receptions and, while not as dynamic as Witten, is a sure-handed target who will be targeted by Donovan McNabb on third down.

Despite their victory, the Giants failed to truly establish a punishing ground game against the Cowboys, as the best moment for Brandon Jacobs came on a 74-yard catch-and-run. Historically the Giants have had some success running on the Eagles by timing up the blitz and running into the vacated areas. Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw — who ran well vs. Dallas even though he was coming off two sprained ankles — must get to the second line of the Philadelphia defense and then make sharp cuts to turn modest gains into larger ones.

Until proven otherwise, the Eagles own this rivalry for the time being, as they have been the tougher and more resilient team in winning the past three games. They certainly are not intimidated by the hostile surroundings and are getting healthier at the right time.

The Giants have tried and failed to build momentum from a victory and they remain susceptible in coverage even with their revamped defense. Eli Manning has not played especially well the past two games and his offensive line is not what it once was, and now RG Chris Snee is dealing with a knee issue. Take Eagles.

New Orleans at Atlanta (+9.5)

Last week: Saints beat Redskins 33-30; Falcons lost to Eagles 34-7.

 

With Matt Ryan’s turf toe possibly holding him out for the rest of the season, the Falcons are close to throwing in the towel. A single loss would derail their postseason hopes. Saints coach Sean Payton made headlines Monday when he admitted that the Saints are going for the perfect season even if they clinch home-field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs.

After Coach Payton’s declaration, it seems the Saints won’t look past any opponent down the stretch. Their huge scare against Washington should jolt them awake and they now face a much weaker defense at a cozy indoor stadium. Expect the Saints to light up the Falcons and cover the spread. Take Saints.

Detroit at Baltimore (-12.5)

Last week: Lions lost to Bengals 23-13; Ravens lost to Packers 27-14.

The Ravens have had their share of problems this season, but nothing like Detroit, a perennially-losing bunch that also has a lot of injuries. The Lions might hit a couple of big plays, but the Ravens still have too many horses for Detroit.

This will be a decent game until midway through the third quarter, when the Ravens take control with a dominating running game. Take Ravens.

Green Bay at Chicago (+2.5)

Last week: Packers beat Ravens 27-14; Bears beat Rams 17-9.

The Packers have stepped up during the second half of the season while the Bears have slid on both sides of the ball. Chicago doesn't have a victory over a team with a winning record. It's the time of year when the better teams step up and the pretenders fade away.

Aaron Rodgers should have plenty of time to shred the Bears' secondary. In the fourth quarter, expect RB Ryan Grant to kill the clock by running stretch plays and weakside draws straight through the Bears' defense. Take Packers.

Seattle at Houston (-5.5)

Last week: Seahawks beat 49ers 20-17; Texans lost to Jaguars 23-18.

The Texans can't afford a fifth consecutive loss. They figure to play another close game, but they must come out on top. The running game won't figure into a victory because it's too inconsistent and nonproductive.

QB Matt Schaub and his receivers will have to stake the Texans to a win, and the defense will have to hold it. Take points and Seahawks.

Miami at Jacksonville (-2.5)

Last week: Dolphins beat Patriots 22-21; Jaguars beat Texans 23-18.

With resilient hard-nosed teams who are hungry for playoff berths clashing, you can expect a physical contest.

The Jaguars feature tons of diversity defensively, and keep opponents guessing with their ability to execute consistently out of both the 4-3 and 3-4 fronts. Miami, meanwhile, offers a plethora of offensive looks ranging from I-formation to its trademark wildcat look. Such conditions make for an interesting chess match between the teams.

At the end of the day, physicality and the field-position battle will win out. Because Miami running back Ricky Williams is banged up, look for the Jags to shut down the rushing attack, forcing the club to throw more than usual. If that's the case, the key for Jacksonville's up-and-down pass rush is to get to young QB Chad Henne to take pressure off its secondary.

One or two key plays on special teams will likely decide this contest. Look for the Jags to edge the Dolphins in a close contest, thus improving their home win streak to six in a row. Take Jaguars.

Buffalo at Kansas City (PK)

Last week: Bills lost to Jets 19-13; Chiefs lost to Broncos 44-13.

The Chiefs have been blown out in many games this season but almost always against playoff contenders. The 4-7 Bills don't qualify, so Sunday's game could be a competitive one. Each team is having problems offensively, so the game may not feature many big plays.

Turnovers will probably decide the matter. The Chiefs in recent games have been the team prone to turnovers while the Bills are among the league leaders in takeaways. So if the game follows that form, look for Buffalo to win a close one. Take Bills.

Carolina at New England (-13.5)

Last week: Panthers beat Buccaneers 16-6; Patriots lost to Dolphins 22-21.

Just like so many late-season games, this one is critical for both teams. The Panthers have their last opportunity to put together a run toward the playoffs. At 5-7, they need every one of them. And a victory over the Patriots -- reeling or not -- would be huge for confidence.

As for the Pats, they must not only perform a miraculous fix on an ailing defense, they must also get the offense and Tom Brady clicking again. Oh, and coach Bill Belichick's team has to hold onto its slim AFC East lead. And they will, though it may be more interesting than they want. Nevertheless, take Patriots to cover.

NY Jets at Tampa Bay (+3.5)

Last week: Jets beat Bills 19-13; Buccaneers lost to Panthers 16-6.

Expect nothing less than ugly football at Raymond James Stadium on Sunday. We’ll see turnovers galore from Tampa and probably a massive performance from RB Thomas Jones.

 Don’t expect a bounce-back effort from QB Josh Freeman, whose confidence is likely rattled. Pick the Jets and watch Darrelle Revis bolster his defensive MVP campaign with at least one interception. Take Jets.

St-Louis at Tennessee (-12.5)

Last week: Rams lost to Bears 17-9; Titans lost to Colts 27-17.

The Titans have flickering playoff hopes, while the Rams are playing out the string at this point. The Titans have more talent than the Rams, and RB Chris Johnson has a chance to record his second 200-yard game of the season in this one.

With Johnson and a stingy defense leading the way, the Titans take care of the Rams at LP Field and stay in contention for another week. The Rams might make it interesting early, but are knocked out in the second half. Take Titans.

Washington at Oakland (+1.5)

Last week: Redskins lost to Saints 33-30; Raiders beat Steelers 27-24.

The Raiders have yet to follow up an impressive win with another victory the past seven seasons, including twice this season. However, they are as confident as they have been all season and certain that they are ready to clear the next hurdle to turning around their fortunes.

 The Raiders will keep in extra blockers and roll out QB Bruce Gradkowski on most passing downs in an attempt to neutralize Albert Haynesworth. The Raiders won't have any difficulty clamping down on receivers Santana Moss and Antwaan Randle El with CB Nnamdi Asomugha and Chris Johnson.

This is a game the Raiders feel as if they can win, and they will because they know too much is riding upon it for them to have another letdown after a big victory. Take Raiders.

Arizona at San Francisco (+2.5)

Last week: Cardinals beat Vikings 30-17; 49ers lost to Seahawks 20-17.

Monday's game won't have the playoff implications ESPN was hoping for just one week ago, but prime time games between the 49ers and Cardinals recently have been close, exciting affairs. The 49ers nearly pulled an upset last year in Glendale only to fall short on the game's last play.

Although San Francisco has been all but eliminated from the postseason hunt, look for Mike Singletary to have his team fired up for national television.

The 49ers have tried to avoid shootouts with Kurt Warner and his cast of quality receivers in the past. This time, however, they have an offense that can at least keep pace. Look for the Cardinals to eke out another wild one. Take Cardinals.

 

 

 

 

 

 

By: Aengus Moorehead @ 19:39 | Category: Football  | Comments: 0 | Permalink