Week 3

September 26 2009 @ 19:03

Greetings Lasses and Lads,

Favorites had a dismal week 2 losing a total of 10 games against the spread. Moreover, nine of them lost their games outright.  The Redskins were the lone team which did not cover the spread but went out to win by a mere 2 points. 

MY RECORD AGAINST THE SPREAD

Last week:  10-6

Season:  18-14

 

Pittsburgh at Cincinnati (+4.5)

Last week: Steelers lost to Bears 17-14; Bengals beat Packers 31-24.

The Bengals-Steelers rivalry is intense, and the importance of this early-season matchup is heightened by the fact both clubs are 1-1 and need a win to keep pace with the 2-0 Ravens.

 The Bengals haven't beaten the Steelers in Cincinnati since 2001, two years before Marvin Lewis took over as head coach. This is a watershed game in which the winner gets a huge, positive momentum boost, while the loser is forced to claw uphill.

It's always fun to watch the machinations between Steelers defensive coordinator Dick LeBeau and Bengals offensive coordinator Bob Bratkowski. LeBeau always seems to know what strings to pull with his 3-4, zone-blitz schemes to keep the Bengals off balance.

Meanwhile, Bratkowski has the kind of offensive weapons needed to give the Steelers' defense headaches. The difference this time is that Steelers strong safety Troy Polamalu, a long-time Bengals nemesis, is sidelined with a sprained knee.

After leading the AFC with 51 sacks in 2008, the Steelers have only two after two games, and none from their outside linebacker tandem of James Harrison and LaMarr Woodley, who combined for 27.5 last season. The Steelers have 30 hurries in two games -- nine more than at this point last season -- but they need to get QB Carson Palmer on the ground.

The Steelers have usually been able to run the ball against the Bengals, and they will need to do that even more to keep some of the Bengals' blitz pressure off Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger.  The running game has not been very productive, but the Steelers did have five runs of 12 yards or longer against the Bears last week, including a 39-yarder by Rashard Mendenhall.

The top priority against the Bengals is always to prevent the big play to WR Chad Ochocinco, who is averaging 20 yards per catch on nine receptions. And the Steelers typically do that by using CB Ike Taylor to follow him everywhere on the field. Taylor is big, strong and the team's fastest defensive player. The tactic has worked because Johnson has done minimal damage to the Steelers.

Part of LeBeau's game plan is to take away Ochocinco, who gets crowded by a corner, safety and linebacker. With Polamalu out, the Bengals need to attack his replacement, Tyrone Carter, who can't match Polamalu's talent, athleticism or playmaking ability. And if Ochocinco gets bracketed, then Chris Henry, Laveranues Coles and Andre Caldwell must step forward.

RB Cedric Benson is off to a fast start and must keep rolling against a physical, swarming Steelers defense. The Steelers' defense has not allowed a 100-yard rusher in 20 straight games. The key to snapping that string is the Bengals' offensive line, which needs to clean up its physical and mental errors. The linemen have been too sloppy with their hand placement, triggering penalties. They must move their feet efficiently so they can get themselves in better position to block more crisply.

The Bengals have had this game circled since NFL schedules were released in April. They see it as their opportunity to make a statement that they can compete with, and defeat, the champion Steelers. The Bengals' offseason goal was to become a more physical, aggressive defensive team and a more explosive offensive unit. So they added the pieces to mirror the Steelers and Ravens.

This game serves as the barometer for how far the Bengals have come and where they stand. They know Roethlisberger is undefeated in Ohio in his pro career and 23-13 on the road as a starter. He's a big, mobile QB who is difficult to bring down. Cincinnati's secondary is covering better and the defensive line shows good pressure, and Big Ben will finally feel the Bengals' wrath. Head coach Marvin Lewis calls it "a big-weighted game" and the weight that gets lifted off the Bengals' shoulders will fall on the Steelers. A close affair is to be expected. Take points and Bengals.

San Francisco at Minnesota (-6.5)

Last week: 49ers beat Seahawks 23-10; Vikings beat Lions 27-13.

We know exactly what the Vikings can do – run the ball better than anyone, stop the run better than anyone and survive in the offensive and defensive passing games. This week is more about determining how legit the 49ers are. Will Frank Gore’s dominance translate against the Williams Wall? Does Mike Singletary have a game plan to stop Adrian Peterson?

Frank Gore had a monster Week 2 for the 49ers, ripping off 207 rushing yards on the strength of two long touchdown runs. After he struggled in Week 1 against Arizona, he flourished against a possibly better Seattle front seven. Aside from Gore, though, the 49ers don’t have a ton going for them. Shaun Hill is a winner for sure but he’s playing caretaker as Gore and the defense do the heavy lifting.

So far, the Viking offense is exactly what it should be. Brad Childress isn’t overcompensating for Brett Favre’s presence; he’s sticking primarily with megastar Adrian Peterson, who looks absolutely unstoppable through two weeks, though he did play the Browns and Lions. Brett Favre has been solid in a caretaker role and is starting to find ways to use dynamic rookie Percy Harvin.

One of the criticisms of the 49ers' most recent win against Seattle is that they allowed a weakened Seahawks team to hang around for most of the game. The 49ers must be more aggressive on third downs, and they shouldn't be so quick to settle for Joe Nedney field goals like they did three times on Sunday.

The Vikings' run defense ranked No. 1 the past three years, but they lost their edge through two games this year. They were forced to bring an eighth-man in the box during the second half to stop the run against Detroit, which ran the ball well with counters and toss sweeps on the outside. San Francisco's Frank Gore is a notch above Kevin Smith and Jamal Lewis, so this will be a tough test for the Vikings.

Brett Favre has been pressured and hit a lot, not to mention sacked seven times so far. The pass protection failures have come in all forms, including: running backs haven't picked up blitzers, linemen have been beaten one-on-one, and there's been miscommunication. The more hits Favre takes, the more he will be exposed to a possible injury.

Favre and the Vikings have to show they can go deep through the air. Until Favre can connect with Bernard Berrian and Sidney Rice for some big gains, and do it consistently, defenses will continue to load up against Peterson. Favre is averaging just 5.5 yards per pass completion, with a long of just 21 yards.

The Vikings will be energized playing in front of their fans in their home opener. It will be the first regular season game that Favre hears cheers from the Vikings fans at the Metrodome. The atmosphere should help Favre and the Vikings get off to a good start early in the game, something they haven't done so far.

But if San Francisco establishes tempo with its running game with Gore and Hill avoids turnovers against his former team, the Vikings could be in for another tough day. But in the end, look for Peterson to have another big day and for the Minnesota pass rush to rattle Hill. Take Vikings.

Atlanta at New England (-3.5)

Last week: Falcons beat Panthers 28-20; Patriots lost to Jets 16-9.

The Falcons (2-0), who were supposed to come down to Earth this year, have looked even better than last year’s version but now they will get a stiff test. They head to New England to face what’s supposed to be the Super Bowl favorite, and they will get to measure themselves.

One loss can send a fan base toward an epic meltdown, and that was the case for Pats fans after Sunday's loss to the Jets. Can Tom Brady and his potent offense rebound against a Falcons secondary that allowed Jake Delhomme to look good? If Wes Welker returns, there are no excuses. Brady must step into his throws and shake off the rust. What if he doesn't?

The Falcons offense has been very smooth in the first two games, and they have quickly integrated TE Tony Gonzalez into the fold. RB Michael Turner hasn’t been the burner he was last year, but it’s still early in the year. Opposing defenses have keyed in on him. The Falcons will need him this week - they won’t win in New England without a running game.

The Patriots should have the better offense but they have been struggling so far. It took the Pats three-and-a-half quarters to wake up against the Bills, and then they were completely shut down by the Jets. Playing without Wes Welker hurt the Pats on Sunday but they are supposed to be a multi-faceted offense. Was losing Josh McDaniels that big of a deal?

The Falcons defense has played well so far, but they need to temper expectations. Both contests were at home. They are still an improved unit over last year, especially with Mike Peterson lighting people from his linebacker spot, but they haven’t been fully tested yet.

The Pats defense has been so-so to start the year. They were burned by a questionable Buffalo offense in Week 1 and then failed to contain rookie quarterback Mark Sanchez in Week 2. They’ll be back at home but if they don’t figure out a way to start pressuring the quarterback, they are going to be a weakness all year long.

Brady has spent most of his return from a knee injury under duress and looking hurried. He has to find a rhythm. His improvement is on him, but others must help. If Laurence Maroney and Fred Taylor get going, Brady's (62 of 100 for 604 yards) life gets much easier against a shoddy Falcons secondary.

There are plenty of reasons to doubt the Patriots, what with Brady's newfound woes and on the heels of a division loss. And there are even more reasons to believe the Falcons are amped for greatness, led by their decorated quarterback. Reality arrives Sunday. New England isn't as bad as it has showed, and Atlanta isn't as good. This time, the Patriots bring the pressure and hurry Ryan, while its offensive line protects Brady. The Pats stay committed to the run and finally grind it out, allowing Brady to regain his comfort level and slowly begin to show signs of returning to form. Take Patriots.

New Orleans at Buffalo (+5.5)

Last week: Saints beat Eagles 48-22; Bills beat Buccaneers 33-20.

There's no place like home; at least that's what the Buffalo Bills think after they bounced back from a devastating season-opening loss at New England with a 33-20 victory over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

The Bills are counting on some more home cooking on Sunday when they host the high-flying New Orleans Saints at Ralph Wilson Stadium.

The Bills have faced some good offenses this year, but none as prolific as the Saints'. QB Drew Brees, a 5,000-yard passer in 2008, is looking even better this season, operating an attack that leads the NFL in total yards and scoring. The Bills' defense will be sorely tested against the Saints, who have scored more than 40 points in each of their first two games.

But the Bills are also confident in their ability to score points, with all-purpose running back Fred Jackson as well as QB Trent Edwards throwing to wide receivers Terrell Owens and Lee Evans. They figure to test a revamped Saints defense under the coordination of former Bills head coach Gregg Williams.

The Saints' offense is looking pretty unstoppable at the moment after two blowout victories against Detroit (45-27) and Philadelphia (48-22). Brees has thrown nine touchdown passes, continuing his spectacular performance at the league's most important position. And he has more healthy weapons at his disposal than ever before, with top receiver Marques Colston, TE Jeremy Shockey and all purpose man Reggie Bush all recovered from various 2008 ailments.

The Saints had discovered a power run game to balance their passing attack, with Mike Bell emerging as a go-to back in Weeks 1 and 2. But he went down with a knee sprain late in the Philly game that could sideline him for a few weeks. Pierre Thomas is back from his own knee sprain, but he's still getting back up to speed and getting used to wearing a bulky knee brace. The Saints will count on him, Bush and maybe even first-year backup Lynell Hamilton to provide at least a decent rushing threat.

The Bills don't take a ton of shots down the field, but they have two big-play receivers in their arsenal: speed threat Lee Evans and physical menace Owens. With a capable QB in Edwards and an emerging running/receiving threat in Jackson, this will be the toughest test yet for the Saints' defense. New Orleans' 'D' has played great the last two weeks, stealing six interceptions, but they've also given up a pass of 60-plus yards in each game. They can't keep allowing that to happen.

About the only way to stop Brees is generating a pass rush against him. That's easier said than done. Brees was sacked just 13 times in 648 drop-backs last season and has been dropped only twice in two games this season. The Bills blitzed Tampa Bay on 32 of 52 drop-backs last week. Even though Brees is excellent at reading pressure and getting rid of the ball, the Bills have to find ways to make him uncomfortable.

Maybe the way to slow down the Saints' offense is keeping Brees and company off the field. The Bills have the running game to do that with Jackson, who is coming off a career-best 163-yard performance. If the Saints play their safeties deep to try and take away Owens and Evans, Jackson could find creases in the defense and have another big day.

On the surface, this does not look like a favorable matchup for the Bills -- especially for their defense, which is 31st in the NFL in passing yards allowed. But they have something going for them that the Saints' first two opponents didn't: an offense that can control the clock and stretch the field vertically.

This is a big game for both teams. The Saints can prove they are a legitimate contender in the NFC, while the Bills can show they are better than the so-called experts think. The Saints aren't likely to be intimidated by the hostile environment of Ralph Wilson Stadium since they played in Philadelphia last week. This has all the trappings of a shootout, but Brees and the Saints simply have too many weapons. Take Saints.

NY Giants at Tampa Bay (+6.5)

Last week: Giants beat Cowboys 33-31; Buccaneers lost to Bills 33-20.

It's early but already these two teams appear to be headed toward different fates.

The Giants once again look like one of the league's best teams while the Bucs appear to be locked in the throes of a difficult rebuilding process under new and still winless coach Raheem Morris.

The Bucs have, however, shown the ability in their first two games to play competitive football, and they do have the makings of a dynamic running attack so the Giants can't take them lightly.

This game will mark the first time former Giants back Derrick Ward has faced his old team, and the Bucs are sure to give Ward a chance to prove the Giants made a mistake in letting him get away.

For the Bucs to keep this one close they must shore up their play on the defensive side of the ball. In particular the Bucs must be sounder against the run.

The Bucs have allowed their first two opponents, Dallas and Buffalo, to run for 339 yards on 59 carries, a 5.7-yards-per-carry average. They're also giving up far too many big plays in the passing game.

The Bucs have the ability to keep this game close, and they really need to. Another big-score loss and some players may start to lose faith in new coordinator Jim Bates' defensive scheme.

The Bucs in the first two games have allowed 168 yards per game on the ground, making this the week the Giants expect their rushing attack to finally get on track after two sub-par showings. RB Brandon Jacobs has rarely established himself as the power runner the Giants have come to expect.

He's averaging a pedestrian 3.3 yards per carry and hasn't yet scored a touchdown. The Giants must get him running with his shoulders more square and hold their blocks longer to spring Jacobs into the second line of the defense, where he usually has the advantage.

The Giants like to call the red zone the green zone, but thus far it's been the dead zone. They are 0 for 8 in scoring touchdowns when they get inside the opponent's 20-yard line. The major failings are the inability to run the ball consistently and the lack of a physically-dominant target to throw to in close quarters. The Giants might be inclined to try rookie WR Ramses Barden, who is 6-6, and 6-6 TE Kevin Boss when they get close to the end zone.

Rod Marinelli coined that phrase back when he was the Bucs' defensive line coach. It means run the ball and keep on running it, and that's what the Bucs have to do, even if they fall behind early. The Bucs have the ability -- with their three-pronged rushing attack -- to wear opponents down and score lots of points. But they can't abandon that approach. They did that last week after falling behind by 17 early on against the Bills, and the passing attack did the Bucs more harm than good. The Bucs can run a balanced offense, but their best option is always to run the ball. It's their strength.

Tampa Bay was penalized 13 times for 112 yards in their 33-20 loss to the Bills last week, including four times for face masking for 60 yards. That's ridiculous. Morris pushes playing aggressive, even violent, football, but you can't play so far outside of the rules that you hurt your team more than you hurt the other one.

This wouldn't be such an issue if penalties hadn't proved to be a problem for the Bucs even during the preseason. This team cannot afford to make mistakes of this nature and the Bucs' chances of winning this game are slim enough. Giving or taking away extra yards only increases the Giants' chances of blowing them out.

Along with the Steelers, the Giants are the team that the Bucs are shooting to be like. They want to be tough and physical, and they want to be multi-faceted on offense. They're not there yet. They're not even close. Their best chance to beat the Giants is to get a few breaks early and hope the Giants wilt under the intense Florida sun. Short of that happening, the Giants should walk to 3-0. Take Giants.

Cleveland at Baltimore (-13.5)

Last week: Browns lost to Broncos 27-6; Ravens beat Chargers 31-26.

If the Ravens play their usual game, this will be a blow out of 20 points or more. This might be the worst Cleveland team since the Browns returned to Cleveland. The Ravens will dominate Cleveland's right side of the offensive line, and the Ravens will also exploit the Browns soft cornerbacks.

Look for Ravens quarterback Joe Flacco to connect on a lot of short to mid range passes because the Browns will back of the Ravens receivers. The only way the Ravens lose is if they suffer a let down from last week's game. Take Ravens.

Washington at Detroit (+6.5)

Last week: Redskins beat Rams 9-7; Lions lost to Vikings 27-13.

The Redskins are coming off a win, but haven't looked impressive in either of their first two games. So, when they face the Lions on Sunday, one of two things is going to happen -- the Lions are either going to snap their 19-game losing streak or they're going to cure all of the Redskins' ills and leave them feeling much better about themselves.

The Lions are good that way -- they've provided aid and comfort to 25 of their past 26 opponents and, while they're playing better, the odds are that it's still not good enough. If the Lions can't find a way to get the upset here, this losing streak could continue into November but Jason Campbell and company just do not possess the firepower to blow them away. Take points and Lions.

Jacksonville at Houston (-3.5)

Last week: Jaguars lost to Cardinals 31-17; Texans beat Titans 34-31.

If the Jaguars can run the ball successfully with Jones-Drew and Jones and control the clock, they have a chance to win. If the Texans do even a mediocre job against the run, they should be able to beat the Jaguars unless the offense turns it over. The Texans have an 8-6 advantage in this AFC South series, and they should be able to make it 9-6, but who knows what team is going to show up? However, the spread is slightly low enough for an easy decision. Take Texans.

Kansas City at Philadelphia (-9.5)

Last week: Chiefs lost to Raiders 13-10; Eagles lost to Saints 48-22.

This should be a comfortable win for the Eagles, but injuries are the great neutralizer. Not only is Donovan McNabb banged up, but wide receiver DeSean Jackson and RB Brian Westbrook (ankle) are too. Without them, the weapons around Kolb are suddenly looking much less potent.

The Chiefs finally have Matt Cassel back and, with another week of practice, should be a little more comfortable in Todd Haley's offense. They'd love nothing more than to get their first win in hostile road environment to get back on track. Take points and Chiefs.

Green Bay at St-Louis (+6.5)

Last week: Packers lost to Bengals 31-24; Rams lost to Redskins 9-7.

St. Louis needs to keep RB Ryan Grant bottled up and force the Packers into predictable passing situations. That way, they can pressure Aaron Rodgers against the suspect Green Bay offensive line.

Given the anemic state of their offense, the Rams are going to lean on their defense for turnovers and might need a defensive or special teams touchdown. But it's hard to imagine the Packers being held below 20 points, not with their group of thoroughbreds at wide receiver. And 20 points might as well be 100 for the Rams these days. Take Packers.

Carolina at Dallas (-9.5)

Last week: Panthers lost to Falcons 28-20; Cowboys lost to Giants 33-21.

The Cowboys had too many turnovers against the Giants in their first prime-time crack at winning in their new stadium. To be succesful Monday night, their defense needs to make some impact plays and also do a much better job of containing a receiver named Steve Smith.

Offensively, even without Marion Barber, they need to turn the tables on Carolina and continue to dominate on the ground to take pressure off Tony Romo who was atrocious last week against the Giants.  Dallas wins its first game in their new digs but Carolina keeps it close. Take points and Panthers.

Last week: Panthers lost to Falcons 28-20; Cowboys lost to Giants 33-21.

Chicago at Seattle (+1.5)

Last week: Bears beat Steelers 17-14; Seahawks lost to 49ers 23-10.

Seattle will hold out hope Matt Hasselbeck can play, but playing seven days after fracturing a rib seems overly optimistic from the Seahawks' perspective.  Replacement Seneca Wallace is better than most of the league's backup quarterbacks, and he has shown he's capable of winning games. He has a better touch on the deep ball than Hasselbeck, but it usually takes a game before the Seahawks' offense adapts itself to Wallace's talents.

He has started a total of 12 games in his career, which have come in three different four-game increments. Seattle has lost the first game after switching to Wallace each time. Take Bears.

Tennessee at NY Jets (-2.5)

Last week: Titans lost to Texans 34-31; Jets beat Patriots 16-9.

Thanks to Coach Rex Ryan's encouragement and the excitement from the fans over his new regime, the Jets suddenly have a home-field advantage. Just ask the Patriots, who had four delay-of-game penalties in their 16-9 loss.

The Jets must guard against a letdown after making the New England game so important, and it will be up to Ryan to prevent that. Tennessee moved the ball against Baltimore's defense in the playoffs last season but turned it over when it mattered most. That could happen again, especially if Kerry Collins is heavily pressured, as expected. This caper could be decided by a field goal and I like the home field advantage here. Take Jets.

Denver at Oakland (-1.5)

Last week: Broncos beat Browns 27-6; Raiders beat Chiefs 13-10.

The Raiders have a chance to be in first place in the AFC West, so that alone should be enough to inspire them to do whatever it takes to prevail. Their defense is playing well, and they have the kind of running game that can wear down a defense and control the tempo of the game.

The Broncos haven't faced a rushing attack as potent as Oakland's but also haven’t met with a passing attack as ineffective as the one JaMarcus Russell is operating. Look for the Broncos to find a way to win in the fourth quarter despite their flaws. Take Broncos.

Miami at San Diego (-5.5)

Last week: Dolphins lost to Colts 27-23; Chargers lost to Ravens 31-26.

The Chargers have shut down the run in the final two quarters of their first two games. If they can tackle better early and start out disciplined instead of having to adjust on the fly against the unpredictable Dolphins run game, then they should be able to stop Miami. However, if Miami controls the clock like it did against the Colts, all Philip Rivers will have to do is charge a late drive and win by a field goal. Take points and Dolphins.

Indianapolis at Arizona (-2.5)

Last week: Colts beat Dolphins 27-23; Cardinals beat Jaguars 31-17.

This could be one of the most entertaining offensive games of the regular season. The Cardinals defense has played well so far, but the 49ers and Jaguars are far from being offensive juggernauts. The Cardinals have the versatility and speed on defense to give the Colts some trouble.

They also have been known to give up some big plays, too. Without safety Bob Sanders, the Colts could have problems matching up against the Cardinals elite receivers. If Kurt Warner gets time, he should have a decent night. The Cardinals are tough to beat at home and they tend to play better in national games, but Peyton Manning is well, Peyton Manning. Take Colts.

 

 

By: Aengus Moorehead @ 19:03 | Category: Football  | Comments: 0 | Permalink

Week 2

September 19 2009 @ 21:22

Greetings Lasses and Lads.

 
Favorites were 8-8 during Week 1, but home teams were only 4-12 against the spread. Four winning favorites - the Colts, Giants, Patriots and Chargers - failed to cover the spread. Home underdogs are often a good bet, but all four of them were losers last week - the Bucs, Browns, Panthers and Raiders with only Oakland covering the spread.

My RECORD AGAINST THE SPREAD:

Last week: 8-8

 
New Orleans at Philadelphia (-1.5)

Last week: Saints beat Lions 45-27.; Eagles beat Panthers 38-10.

No offense looked better than the Saints’ unit in Week 1, as Drew Brees tossed six touchdown passes. No defense looked better than Philly’s, as the Eagles had five sacks, five interceptions and a defensive touchdown.

Then again, the Saints did their damage against the lowly Lions while the Eagles did theirs against lowly Jake Delhomme and the Panthers. Each team wants to prove its legitimacy and the pressure is on the Eagles, as its defense must come up big without Donovan McNabb helming the his squad.

Even against an aggressive, well-rounded Philadelphia defense, New Orleans can do some damage. Drew Brees almost broke Dan Marino’s single-season yardage record with half his key starters hurt last season; in Week 1, he showed how much better he can be when he adds healthy Jeremy Shockey, Reggie Bush and Marques Colston to his already-large array of weapons. The Eagles will pressure Brees but he’s an elite signal caller who can overcome blitzes.

With Donovan McNabb a virtual lock to miss Week 2, the Philly offense, as pass-happy as any in the league, could stall or at be stuck in neutral. Sorry, Kevin Kolb and (maybe) A.J. Feeley. Too bad Michael Vick isn’t eligible until Week 3.

Indeed, no team got bitten harder by the injury bug than Philadelphia last week, as Donovan McNabb broke his ribs during a touchdown run. While the injury shouldn’t keep McNabb out too long, it’s a major short-term blow to the Eagles’ scoring ability.

Though Eagles won’t make life easy for the Saints, New Orleans’ offense is so good that it could still top 20 points on an “off” day. That could be enough to beat the Eagles if Kevin Kolb or A.J. Feeley has the reins in McNabb’s place. Take Saints.

 
New England at NY Jets (+5.5)

Last week: Patriots beat Bills 25-24; NY Jets beat Texans 24-7.

Tom Brady made a triumphant return as he led the Patriots (with Buffalo’s “help”) back from an 11 point deficit with 5:32 left in their 25-24 victory over the Bills. Mark Sanchez looked very good in his regular-season debut as the Jets rolled to a 24-7 win in Houston. It’s a meeting of arguably the best clutch artist since Joe Montana, against one who could be the best in the future.

It took a while to warm up, but Brady ended up with 378 yards and his two touchdown passes came within the last 2:06 of the game. Buffalo did a great job of avoiding the big play, but Brady was patient, took what he was given and showed why the Patriots are the favorites for the Super Bowl with him in the fold.

Sanchez threw for 272 yards, a touchdown and a pick, but he knows he also has a very good running back in Thomas Jones, who ran for 107 yards and a pair of scores. This takes a lot of pressure off the rookie. They also controlled the clock, holding the ball for almost 39 minutes.

New England’s defense looked indifferent against the Bills, and even though they held them to 276 yards, Buffalo averaged almost five yards a carry on the ground. The Patriots did a great job on Terrell Owens, who had only two catches, but it looked like the Bills’ no-huddle offense confused New England. Also, the Patriots’ defensive leader, Jerod Mayo, left with a knee injury.

Jets Coach Rex Ryan quickly stamped his authority on the Jets’ defense, which shut down Houston to the tune of 183 yards, including 38 rushing yards. Ryan was the architect of a great Baltimore defense, and his troops appear to be catching on quickly. However, if they’re really going to grade this unit, it shall come against offenses like the Patriots.

The Patriots have won eight straight against the Jets at Giants Stadium, and all of those wins have come against the spread, but this year’s game will be closer than the 5.5 point spread indicates. Ryan’s Baltimore defenses gave Brady trouble when they met, and he has these Jets playing with a new belief. The Jets will be able to run on the Patriots if Mayo isn’t there.

Yet, Sanchez is still a rookie, and he’ll make a mistake for Brady and the Patriots to capitalize on. Take the Pats, but be careful: they may have trouble covering the spread. Carefully take Patriots.

Pittsburgh at Chicago (+2.5)

Last week: Steelers beat Titans 13-10; Bears lost to Packers 21-15.

Two teams attempting to deal with the losses of Pro Bowl defensive playmakers hook up in the Bears' home opener. The Bears must cope with losing middle linebacker Brian Urlacher for the season to a dislocated right wrist, while the Steelers have to get by with Ryan Clark at strong safety in place of Troy Polamalu, who has a sprained left knee and is out three to six weeks. Hunter Hillemmeyer has the difficult task of replacing Urlacher, and the Bears have never won when Urlacher missed a start because of injury (0-7).

Jay Cutler will attempt to put his poor Bears debut behind him -- he threw a career-worst four interceptions against the Packers in Week 1 -- but he has to do it against the defending world champion's defense, which allowed 10 points to Tennessee in four-plus quarters in the NFL season opener and has had 10 days to rest following the Thursday night game.

If the Bears quarterback had a tough time finding receivers and figuring out the Packers' new 3-4 defense, he might have an even more difficult time against the team that plays the 3-4 better than anyone in the league. Cutler threw four interceptions in his Bears debut, mostly because he and his receivers were out of sync. To add to the dilemma, Cutler’s impatience and obvious mental fragility could play into the hands of defense coordinator Dick LeBeau who is a master at disguising coverages.

Cutler most certainly is going to be flushed out of the pocket by the Steelers' blitzing. When Green Bay did this to him using the same 3-4 scheme, Cutler thought his receivers were going one way while they were going the other. It led to two of his interceptions.

So far, so good for the Steelers...sort of. Their running game looks suspect but the passing game seems ready to carry the offensive load this season, so there’s no dramatic storyline for Steeltown in Week 2.

Each team has some major offensive weapons but each team has holes to match those weapons. Ben Roethlisberger rekindled his magic from the Super Bowl with Santonio Holmes in Week 1; Holmes caught nine passes for 131 yards and a score while Big Ben threw for 363 yards. Willie Parker, Rashard Mendenhall and the Steelers running game were ineffective and may struggle again, even with Brian Urlacher out for Chicago.

Both teams should throw often on Sunday but the Steelers seem more likely to succeed, simply because Big Ben and the receiving corps have an established bond. The Bears’ offense was out of sync in Week 1 and a matchup against the deadly Pittsburgh “D” comes at the worst possible time. Bet the Steelers to edge Chicago in a tough, close game. Take Steelers.

Baltimore at San Diego (-3.5)

Last week: Ravens beat Chiefs 38-24; Chargers beat Raiders 24-20.

Now that Baltimore appears to have an offense, there is the potential for plenty of yards and points. The Chargers, as this season moves along, figure to look more like the team that finished second in the league in scoring in 2008 than the one that sputtered much of Monday night at Oakland. The Ravens had a team-record 501 total yards in their season-opening victory against Kansas City.

Joe Flacco seems to be the real deal, and he is a better quarterback than the one the Chargers faced in Oakland (JaMarcus Russell). He and tight end Todd Heap should be very excited about Sunday. Raiders tight end Zach Miller caught six passes for 96 yards, the ninth time in the past 17 games the Chargers have allowed a tight end that many receptions and the fifth time they have allowed one that many yards.

This game against a quality opponent will go a long way toward showing which kind of team the Chargers are. Either the Chargers are a team that battled back against an underrated and physical opponent and found a way to win, signalling they are a new team that is perhaps destined to succeed, or the Chargers are simply overrated and were almost exposed by the Raiders.

The Chargers didn't show much of the promised pass rush in their opener. Maybe they didn't want to give much away against an inferior quarterback. Maybe, as it appeared, they were simply beat in many situations they shouldn't have been. Flacco will have an easier time actually completing passes than Russell did, if he has all day to throw.

The Ravens have the defensive front and secondary to frustrate the Chargers, especially with them being thinned by injury and relying on young players up front. Only if the Chargers' defense can play a more consistent game than in the opener do they seem to have a chance. But the types of breakdowns the Chargers' secondary has been prone to and without better pressure, Flacco could be set up for another big day. Take Ravens.

 
NY Giants at Dallas (-2.5)

Last week: Giants beat Redskins 23-17; Dallas beat Buccaneers 34-21.

The Cowboys will officially open their $1.2 billion stadium -- the one with the $40 million video board that stretches 60 yards -- against the Giants, one of the NFL's best road teams.

The winner will become the early favorite in the NFC East, especially with Eagles quarterback Donovan McNabb's status in question because of a broken rib.

This should be an old-school, physical game with both teams fighting to control the line of scrimmage and impose their running game on the other. The Giants have the better offensive and defensive lines, but the Cowboys have more skilled players on offense.

This also features a matchup of two of the game's best young quarterbacks. Eli Manning won a Super Bowl two years ago and is coming off an impressive performance in the opener against Washington with 279 yards and two touchdowns. Tony Romo had an outstanding day against Tampa Bay with a career-high 353 yards passing and three touchdown passes for 42 yards or more.

The Giants know they're one of the NFC's best teams. A victory by Dallas would help validate its decision to release talented, but troubled players such as Terrell Owens and Adam Jones.

In the past the Giants were able to exploit the Cowboys' smallish cornerbacks with tall receivers but that's not the physical attribute of this year's receivers. The best run-after-catch player on the roster is Mario Manningham and Manning will try to put Manningham in positions where he gets the ball in his hands on the move with room to manoeuver.

The Cowboys allowed 174 yards rushing and a 5.6 average per carry last week. They played poor gap control and had limited success run blitzing. Now, they have to deal with RB Brandon Jacobs, who has a 5.0 average and more than 1,000 yards rushing each of the past two seasons. Nose guard Jay Ratliff is the key. If he can't play strong at the point of attack -- even against double teams -- the defense has no chance to slow down Jacobs.

The Cowboys had 24 runs and 27 passes in the opener, which marked the fourth time since Romo became the starter that he's had as few as 27 pass attempts. The Cowboys, who ran the ball 60 percent of the time last season, vowed to run the ball more to take the pressure off Romo and limit his opportunity to make poor decisions. If they run the ball 24 times against the Giants, even if they don't rush for 100 yards, it'll be a positive because they're controlling the tempo and keeping their defense off the field and fresh.

Romo had five completions of 20 yards or more to four different receivers against Tampa Bay. The Cowboys must continue hitting big plays to beat the Giants because it's unlikely they're going to be able to consistently drive 80 yards against the Giants' defense.

The Giants protect the ball, don't make mistakes and have terrific offensive and defensive lines. The Cowboys have a propensity for committing penalties and allowing turnovers, trends they're trying to change. Their offensive line is big, but has trouble with athletic defensive lines. When in doubt, you should take Tom Coughlin over Wade Phillips. The Cowboys will have the momentum that accompanies opening a new stadium and a nationally televised Sunday night game. Take Cowboys.

Carolina at Atlanta (-6.5)

Last week: Panthers lost to Eagles 38-10; Falcons beat Dolphins 19-7.

The Falcons are a good team but the Panthers really need this game. It’s kind of scary when you are desperate in Week 2, but look for the Panthers to bounce back with a positive performance. They may not win this game but it's still a division rivalry, so it should be closely contested. Take points and Panthers.

Minnesota at Detroit (+9.5)

Last week: Vikings beat Browns 34-20; Lions lost to Saints 45-27.

During the Lions' 18-game losing streak, they've played the Vikings pretty tough, but Favre gives the Vikings an entirely different look. With Peterson keeping those safeties busy, Favre should be able to use the play-action game and work the ball downfield. The Lions give up too many big plays and that's a trend that's going to continue during this game. The Lions will hang in there early, but the Vikings will overpower them in the second half and hand Detroit its 19th straight defeat. Take Vikings.

Cincinnati at Green Bay (-8.5)

Last week: Bengals lost to Broncos 12-7; Packers beat Bears 21-15.

The Bengals lost seven of eight away from home last year, while the Packers have won four of their last six at Lambeau Field. It was impressive how good Green Bay was without CB Will Blackmon and DT B.J. Raji, who were to both play big roles in the defense. The front seven was always in Cutler’s face, and the secondary was good enough to act on his mistakes. Carson Palmer didn’t make good decisions in his first game back since Week 6 of 2008, and playing a defense like Green Bay’s isn’t the best think for his confidence right now but he will keep things tight. Take points and Bengals.

Arizona at Jacksonville (-3.5)

Last week: Cardinals lost to 49ers 20-16; Jaguars lost to Colts 14-12.

The Cardinals have been to Jacksonville just once, and they were bombed 44-10 back in 2000. That sounds about right for them, as Arizona was miserable on the East Coast in 2008, losing six of their eight games, including the Super Bowl. The Jaguars aren’t really a force at home, losing four of their last five during last year’s campaign. All the Cardinals need is a healthy receiver to keep the pressure off Fitzgerald, and with the loss of DE Reggie Hayward, Jacksonville’s pass rush shouldn’t be a factor. The Cardinals were 2-6 on the East Coast last year, but they’re facing a Jacksonville team that has no identity, and not much motivation. Take Cardinals.

Oakland at Kansas City (-2.5)

Last week: Raiders lost to Chargers 24-20; Chiefs lost to Ravens 38-24.

The Raiders looked far more regular-season ready in their opener than the Chiefs did in theirs. Kansas City's defense looked suspiciously like the weak bunch from last year, when the Chiefs couldn't rush the passer or stop the run. If the Chiefs don't make some adjustments and improve noticeably, this could be another tough game for them because the Raiders will try to run all over the Chiefs, as they did successfully in both of last season's matchups. Take Raiders.

Houston at Tennessee (-6.5)

Last week: Texans lost to NY Jets 24-7; Titans lost to Steelers 13-10.

Houston is not a fan of LP Field, where they’ve dropped six of their seven meetings, and they were hammered 31-12 there in 2008. Now, with a gimpy Matt Schaub, they’re taking on a Tennessee defense that looked like it was on a mission to show they didn’t miss All-Pro tackle Albert Haynesworth, who bolted for Washington. The Titans’ rushing attack will be better against the Texans’ porous run defense, which will allow Tennessee to control the clock. The Titans should have no problems covering the 6.5 point spread at home. Take Titans

St-Louis at Washington (-9.5)

Last week: Rams lost to Seahawks 28-0; Redskins lost to Giants 23-17.

The Rams have lost six straight on the road dating back to last year, and nine of 10 overall. But guess where their last win came? Last October in Washington, when K Josh Brown hit a 49-yard field goal with no time remaining to give St. Louis a 19-17 victory.

 It won’t be this close on Sunday, because if the Rams had trouble with Seattle’s defense, they’re in for a long day against the Redskins. Look for Albert Haynesworth and Andre Carter to be in the St. Louis backfield all day long, while the Redskins’ offense does just enough to cover the 9.5 point spread. Take Redskins.

Tampa Bay at Buffalo (-4.5)

Last week: Buccaneers lost to Cowboys 34-21; Bills lost Patriots 25-24.

This is a big game for both teams, but probably more for the Bills because of their higher level of expectation. The loss to the Patriots would be minimized to an extent if they win on Sunday, but a loss would be a very bad sign that this team is headed in the wrong direction.

The Buccaneers have weapons on offense that will concern the Bills. But can the Bucs' defense contain the Bills' no-huddle offense, especially if their coverage breakdowns from last week continue? Look for the Bills to play inspired football, only this time they will finish what they start. Take Bills.

 
Seattle at San Francisco (-1.5)

Last week: Seahawks beat Rams 28-0; 49ers beat Cardinals 20-16.

Don't look for any dramatic changes from the 49ers, whose running game sputtered against Arizona but who are determined to become a pound-the-ball-at-all-costs offense this season. That may make for an ugly game offensively, but the 49ers aren't worried.

They believe their defense is good enough to keep the score close in the first half and that the offense will begin to win the battles on the line of scrimmage in the second half. This game will be close and the 49ers will again win ugly. Take 49ers.

Cleveland at Denver (-2.5)

Last week: Browns lost to Vikings 34-20; Broncos beat Bengals 12-7.

Kyle Orton and Brady Quinn are average quarterbacks at best, but at least the former has some legitimate weapons around him. Brandon Marshall, Eddie Royal and Knowshon Moreno are all serious talents, and each should bring more to the table in Week 2. Quinn, meanwhile, has little to hand off or throw to save for Braylon Edwards and he's simply not strong enough to use the big receiver effectively. Denver's edge with the football will make the difference in this game. Take Broncos.

Indianapolis at Miami (+2.5)

Last week: Colts beat Jaguars 14-12; Dolphins lost to Falcons 19-7.

Both the Dolphins and the Colts are facing some serious issues: Indianapolis lost a key receiver and the Dolphins gave up an unorthodox number of turnovers in their first game. Those issues will be on the minds of each team, even though the defensive units for both are playing well. Still, the Colts managed to win their game despite losing receiver Anthony Gonzalez n the first quarter.

The Dolphins, on the other hand, looked pretty bad even in light of their multiple turnovers. Before Miami can get the respect it fought so hard to earn last season, it needs to prove capable of playing the same efficient football that got the Dolphins to the playoffs last season. The Colts are simply proving they can overcome the loss of one wide receiver, which doesn't seem like nearly as much of a challenge considering Peyton Manning is their quarterback. Take Colts.

 

 

 

 

 

By: Aengus Moorehead @ 21:22 | Category: Football  | Comments: 0 | Permalink

Week 1

September 12 2009 @ 21:47

Greetings lasses and lads.

The NFL kicks off its 2009 season on Thursday as the defending Super Bowl champion Pittsburgh Steelers host the Tennessee Titans.

It remains to be seen if the championship reign of Mike Tomlin's Steelers will be a reign of terror or not, but the Pittsburgh D is still plenty scary. From this seat it's hard not give the Steelers the preseason nod.

Do the Steelers have the horses to make it two in a row? Absolutely, but there are plenty of other contenders looking to make sure the champs go one and done.

With Tom Terrific back in the fold in Foxboro, the lauded Pats offence should be able to put up big numbers in 2009. Last season they barely missed a beat after Brady's injury, winning 11 games with former backup Matt Cassel and narrowly missing the playoffs.

Teams with great quarterbacks always seem to rise to the top no matter how their defenses fare which is the case in San Diego and Indy and you can never disregard the leadership Philip Rivers and Peyton Manning bring in to their respective squad. Let’s not forget about Drew Brees and Carson Palmer who can turn things around with a flick of an arm.

Contenders in the AFC: Pittsburgh, New England, San Diego & Indianapolis.

My pick: New England.

Watch for: Houston.

A couple of big additions in the NFC might have people looking to Minnesota and Philadelphia respectively when it comes to Super Bowl picks but don’t hold your breath Viking fans for the “cancer who won’t disappear” will undoubtedly putrefy any good cells off a great core of able bodies you possess. The Packers will see to that.

Eagle fans can breathe a little easier though. Donovan McNabb is no Brett Favre, he cares about ...the team. And with Michael Vick on the sidelines and McNabb at the helm, the Eagles will soar in January.

Unlike the AFC, quarterbacks in the NFC are emotionally fragile and are prone to mistakes. Apart from Donovan McNabb and Kurt Warner, I do not see stability or foresight with the men in place in such a crucial position. Romo, Manning, Campbell and Cutler are names that do not inspire optimism. As usual, Favre will get off the hook because of Adrian Peterson like he did in Green Bay with Ahman Green but I digress. I see Aaron Rodgers doing great things for the Packers this season and finally come into view from the shadow of his selfish predecessor and upstage him as a leader of men.

Contenders in the NFC: Philadelphia, New York, Minnesota & Dallas.

My pick: Philadelphia.

Watch for: Green Bay.

Week 1

My record against the spread:

Last season: 133-123

 

Tennessee Titans @ Pittsburgh Steelers (-5.5)

This is a matchup of two of the best teams in the AFC in 2008, and both are expected to contend for the conference championship again in 2009. The Titans, at 13-3, had the AFC's best record last season and were the last team to beat the Steelers, a 31-14 win at home in Week 16. The Titans were also the only team in 2008 to score more than 24 points against the league's No. 1 defense by putting up 21 of their 31 in the second half in a game that determined the No. 1 playoff seed in the AFC.

Now does that directly relate to this game, being a brand new season? Maybe a little. The Titans do not fear the Steelers and the two teams possess more similarities than diversities. Both are excellent running teams that also play very good run defense. The Steelers do have an advantage at quarterback; Ben Roethlisberger is a better down field passer than Kerry Collins and they can count on proven receivers. But the Titans may have the best secondary in the league. And yes, without Albert Hayneswoth, the run defense suffers but the Titans have had a lot of time to develop his replacement.

One of the Titans' biggest keys to success last season was the team's ability to protect QB Kerry Collins. Collins was sacked just eight times all season, and only once in the team's regular season win over the Steelers in December. The Steelers, who had an AFC-best 51 sacks last year, want to change that. Communication up front will be crucial, as well as blitz-pickup for the running backs.

The Titans made life miserable for Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger in last year's game, sacking him five times while also forcing several fumbles. And yes, that was without Haynesworth. The Titans will use a rotation at defensive tackle to keep players fresh, and aim to get to Roethlisberger up the middle just like last year.

The Steelers had success throwing deep against the Titans last season, and it is one of their offensive mantras for this season. The development of Limas Sweed as the No. 3 receiver and the deep speed of rookie Mike Wallace should give Big Ben more opportunities down the field.

The Titans were really the only team to move the ball successfully against the Steelers' defense last season, the lone exception being Arizona scoring 13 points in the fourth quarter of Super Bowl XLIII. And, even playing without defensive tackle Albert Haynesworth, Tennessee was able to pressure Roethlisberger and force him into two costly interceptions, one of which was returned for an 83-yard TD. But the Steelers have not let their Super Bowl championship erase the memory of how they played against the Titans last December, and the opportunity to channel the anticipation in the NFL opener will be enough to avenge their last defeat. In a tight one. Take points and Titans.

Dallas Cowboys @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+5.5)

The youngest coach in the NFL makes his debut against one of the league's most storied franchises. The Cowboys' glory days are well in the past, however.

Dallas hasn't won a playoff game since 1996, and some believe they'll have a hard time even making the playoffs this year. As a result, new Bucs coach Raheem Morris could pull off something of an upset and get his tenure off to a dazzling start.

This is a very winnable game for the Bucs because they've beefed up their defense in an effort to better stop the run, which is Dallas' strength. They're also at home.

Any edge the Bucs have pretty much ends there, though, because the Cowboys have the better quarterback, and the Bucs are a team in the midst of a transition.

Players on both sides of the ball in Tampa are still learning new schemes, so they probably won't play as fast as they're capable of in this game.

That said, no one really knows what to expect from the Bucs' new defense, or their new offense, so Tampa Bay has a chance to serve up a devastating loss to the Cowboys.

And trust me on this: A loss to the Bucs, even on the road, would be devastating to Dallas.

It may not create the turmoil that a loss late in the season to Philadelphia, Washington or the Giants would, but it has the potential to be quite damaging to the Cowboys' big-picture plans.

While that's the goal of every defensive team, Dallas forced just 22 turnovers last season, with only eight interceptions. Buc’s QB Byron Leftwich doesn't move well, which means the Cowboys' blitzing scheme - Dallas led the league in sacks in '08 - should put him under duress, forcing him to make some poor decisions. The Cowboys don't have many explosive offensive players, so they will benefit from some short fields.

Tony Romo is 21-8 the last two seasons as a starter, but his devotion to the game and his leadership have been questioned. The Cowboys turned the team over to him by getting rid of Terrell Owens because they didn't think he could silence the receiver's dominant personality. It's time for Romo to reward their trust by reducing his turnovers, spreading the ball around and playing a clean game.

The Bucs and Cowboys will both take the same basic approach to offense in this game. They will lean primarily on a trio of running backs in an effort to control the ball and the clock, and they will look to connect on play-action passes off the runs. The team that can run the ball best and stop the other team's rush will gain a big edge in this game. The key for the Bucs is to not abandon the run too early if they fall behind. The Cowboys may wilt under the blazing Florida sun, so sticking to the run late could prove very beneficial.

Leftwich's strength is throwing the deep ball, and the Bucs plan to lean on that strength a lot. They'll look to suck an eighth defender into the box to stop the run and throw deep off play-action. What Leftwich must do to make this ploy work is be more accurate with his passes. He hit on about three of 10 such throws during the preseason, and that's not good enough. The Bucs need a consistent effort from Leftwich to have a chance in this game.

The Cowboys are the better team in this matchup, but they're a beatable team. If the Bucs can somehow take an early lead and hold on to it through the half, they'll have a chance to win. The Bucs have prepared for the heat by working out in pads every day this preseason. They won't wilt and should be competitive, but the Cowboys' depth and experience should allow them to pull this one out in the end but Tampa Bay keeps it close. Take points and Tampa Bay.

Detroit Lions @ New Orleans Saints (-12.5)

The Lions aren't waiting long to unveil the No. 1 overall pick, quarterback Matthew Stafford. He'll debut as a starter in Week 1 at New Orleans, having won the job over veteran Daunte Culpepper in the preseason.

The Saints don't have an overwhelming defense, but they promise to be much more aggressive and disruptive under new coordinator Gregg Williams, who will throw a lot of different looks and blitzes at the rookie to keep him as uncomfortable as possible. And Stafford won't have the luxury of winning this game 10-7 against the high-powered Saints offense.

Expectations are significantly higher for the Saints than the Lions this year. Even though they missed the playoffs the past two seasons, New Orleans had the league's No. 1-ranked offense last year, and the unit could be even better with a healthy Jeremy Shockey, Marques Colston and Reggie Bush. And their defense will almost certainly improve after making the switch to Williams and adding newcomers like cornerback Jabari Greer, safety Darren Sharper and tackle Anthony Hargrove.

The Saints were outstanding in the preseason in just about every area, leading to as much buzz in New Orleans as there's ever been around this team. It will be a letdown if Saints don't match the 42-7 drubbing they gave the Lions in Detroit last December.

The Saints are overloaded with offensive firepower. Quarterback Drew Brees emerged as one of the league's elite passers last year, nearly breaking Dan Marino's record of 5,084 passing yards in a season. Bush is eager to pick up where he left off before his first knee injury last October, when he had scored eight touchdowns in the first six weeks of the season.

Colston is back to being Brees' go-to guy after a major thumb injury marred his season last year. And Shockey looks like he could put up some monster numbers in this offense now that he's fully recovered from a sports hernia that plagued him throughout 2008.

The Lions rookie QB threw an interception in all four preseason games and lost a fumble in the final game. Stafford will make some eye-popping throws downfield, but his confidence may also get him into trouble until he learns what throws he can squeeze in to tight spots and which ones he can't.

The Lions have real issues in rushing the passer and covering receivers downfield -- one of the reasons they went 0-16 last year. This season, new defensive coordinator Gunther Cunningham is going to dial up an assortment of blitzes and bring pressure from all over to try to force some turnovers. The other alternative is to watch the opposing quarterback methodically shred their defense to pieces. There's a lot of risk involved, but the Lions have no alternative.

Brees looked as sharp as ever in the preseason, and he has an embarrassment of healthy riches at his disposal to start this season. It's hard to imagine the Saints being held under 30 points against a rebuilding Lions defense. Obviously the Saints need to play smart, avoiding turnovers and penalties. And it would be nice if they could establish a clock-control ground game that was never there when needed in 2008. But the best way to put pressure on Detroit and Stafford is to run up the score early and make the Lions play catch-up.

The Lions, still seeking their first victory since 2007, will feature more than 30 new players under first-time coach Jim Schwartz. So they've got their work cut out for them against a polished, experienced Saints roster inside the Superdome. A Saints victory would seem to be a no-brainer if not for the rash of worst-to-first success stories that have permeated the NFL in recent seasons -- including the Saints' own Cinderella run to the NFC Championship Game in 2006-07. Still, Brees is at the top of his game right now, and the Saints offense has been firing on all cylinders throughout the summer. This one could get out of hand fast. Take Saints.

Miami Dolphins @ Atlanta Falcons (-3.5)

Both of these teams possess a very realistic playoff opportunities here in 2009. The only difference is that Atlanta has a more effective downfield passing attack with Matt Ryan behind the center and Roddy White assuming duties down the field and with the addition of perennial pro-bowler Tony Gonzalez, it may be better than ever.

 The strength for Miami last year will probably be their strength this year: ball security. Indeed, the Dolphins turned the ball over 13 times last year and were +17 on take-away/give-away differential.

Dolphin running back Ronnie Brown has looked exceptional during training camp, exhibiting the speed, power and veteran vision that might allow him to make the leap toward elitism this season. But that's going to still require the Dolphins to give Brown the ball more often -- and not just out of the Wildcat formation. If the team's interior line can gain the immediate trust of coach Tony Sparano early in the game, expect the team to utilize Brown's fresh legs early in the season.

On defense for the Dolphins, Jason Taylor and Joey Porter are back together but are playing different positions. With Taylor on the strong side and Porter remaining on the weak side, the Dolphins believe they've figured out the best way to utilize this tandem. If that's the case, it might be Miami's best chance toward shutting down Atlanta's high-powered offense that's fuelled by Matt Ryan’s riffled arm.

Speaking of offense for the Falcons, running back Michael Turner carried a load last season with a league-leading 376 carries. He has fared well in the past finding the cracks and crevices against 3-4 defenses. Norwood was slowed in the preseason with a knee injury, but is back to provide help on third downs and as a change-of-pace back. Fellow RB  Jerious Norwood was slowed in the preseason with a knee injury, but is back to provide help on third downs and as a change-of-pace back.

On passing, Ryan threw 34 percent of his passes in wide receiver Roddy White’s direction last season and only 6 percent to tight ends. Look for a much lesser disparity this year, as Ryan appears to have established a nice relationship with Gonzalez. With Gonzalez working the middle of the field, and White and Jenkins at wide receiver, the Falcons red zone numbers should improve.

Two of last season's surprise teams come into this one with strong offenses and maturing defenses. Ryan is seeking to develop into a top echelon NFL quarterback after a spectacular rookie season. The Falcons' weakness on defense -- they are replacing six starters -- will be apparent early in the season as they try to come together as a unit, but their offense will prove too much for the Dolphins. Take Falcons.

Minnesota Vikings @ Cleveland Browns (+3.5)

Cleveland coach Eric Mangini is back in Cleveland as the coach, 14 years after breaking into the NFL as a Belichick assistant on a Browns team that wasn't long for Cleveland. He is charged with jump-starting a team that is 0-1 in the postseason in 10 years since coming back as an expansion team. Pundits doubt he has the horses to break free from the cycle of losing this year.

However, he has imported six former Jets on defense — two each on the line, the linebacking core and the secondary — in hopes of making a quick transition. In 2006, he inherited a Jets team that was 4-12 and took it to the playoffs. Now, as an experienced head coach, he has another 4-12 team on his hands.

There are big questions about whether Brett Favre can rebound after going 1-4 down the stretch with a sore arm in 2008. The Browns have a different kind of quarterback question, and Mangini won’t even say whether Brady Quinn or Derek Anderson will start. Quinn should get the nod though.

The offensive line is one of the biggest question marks the Vikings face this season, and the preseason didn't do much to ease concerns about how well the line will pass protect. Right tackle Phil Loadholt and center John Sullivan, both inexperienced new starters, will have to show they can handle the transition. Loadholt looked good run blocking but not pass blocking in the preseason.

The Vikings are facing a strong test of their special-teams coverage unit right from the start. The Browns excel in special teams, and that could spell trouble for the Vikings, who allowed an NFL record seven touchdowns on special teams last season.

The Vikings would be wise to get RB Adrian Peterson going early to take pressure off of Favre, who is still trying to learn the tendencies of his new teammates like being one. Favre doesn't have the timing down with his receivers yet, so there is bound to be an adjustment period early this season. Peterson will try to exploit a Browns rush defense that ranked 28th in the NFL last season.

The Browns obviously aren't going to beat Minnesota with a smash-mouth running game. The Vikings' run defense is way too good, and Browns workhorse Jamal Lewis is coming off a down year. That means Quinn needs to be given an unpredictable game plan featuring a mix of passes and runs on first downs. The Browns seemed to be practicing precisely for that in a preseason game against Detroit, in which they passed on first down at the start of every series in the first half. The Browns also worked overtime on throwing on the move. Quinn has good promise in that area, and will need his feet plenty to escape a rush that produced 45 sacks in 2008.

So what if Favre sat out training camp and made two preseason starts? The same was true last year, when Favre went on the road and led the Jets past Miami. Last year, Favre worked for a coach with a defensive background, Mangini. Hooking up with Brad Childress, who became a head coach based on offensive masterminding, could be a better fit.

Much of the Browns' season, including their hopes in this game, rides on Quinn. If he proves to be simply a respectable NFL starter, the Browns won't win, because the regime is too new and the surrounding talent too ordinary.

For the Browns to win, Quinn must be a special quarterback. He did have a strong game in his first NFL start last year, losing a Thursday night shootout against Jay Cutler and the Broncos.

The Vikings, though, will be Super Bowl contenders if Favre catches his third wind. Based on a nasty, versatile defense alone, the Vikings should be too much for a team groping for some light. Take Vikings.

New York Jets @ Houston Texans (-4.5)

The Mark Sanchez era starts for the Jets. You know that Jets coach Rex Ryan will probably work with Sanchez in a fashion similar to the way John Harbaugh worked with Joe Flacco last year in Baltimore. Ryan will largely depend on his defense, his punter and his running backs. It's a good and proven formula for success with a young quarterback, and Sanchez should benefit from that approach. The Texans want the playoffs. To get there, the two aspects they must improve are their record against the division (2-4 last year), and their record away from home (2-6 last year).

Those trends must be reversed. Running back Steve Slaton does not get enough credit, nor does receiver Andre Johnson. Regular season intensity is different from the exhibition season, and playoff intensity is higher still. If the Texans want to make it, they got to start showing that intensity now. Take Texans.

Denver Broncos @ Cincinnati Bengals (-4.5)

The Bengals eagerly await the Broncos, who have a new head coach in Josh McDaniels, issues at quarterback (Kyle Orton, Chris Simms, Tom Brandstater) and a late arriving wide receiver in Brandon Marshall, whose offseason trade demand fell on deaf ears. Carson Palmer’s return after an injury-riddled 2008 will be the difference in the game.

With a solid running game led by Cedric Benson, a potent passing attack led by the wide receiver trio of Chad Ochocinco, Chris Henry and Laveranues Coles and a more physical defense, the Bengals have the weapons to soundly defeat the Broncos, who need time to find their identity. Take Bengals.

Philadelphia Eagles @ Carolina Panthers (+1.5)

Did you know that Philadelphia is 4-6 in home openers under Andy Reid and Carolina was 8-0 at home last year, winning by an average of 15.4 points? I wonder if Philadelphia will be a late bloomer this year. I mean, the Michael Vick addition, maybe a rookie starting at running back, Donovan McNabb not mastering the core offence yet and the season-ending injury to middle linebacker Stewart Bradley and -- this if of key importance -- the offensive line has not meshed yet due to injuries.

On the other side, Carolina has all 11 starters back on offence. The Panthers play tough football and this year they will have to since they only play one team that had a losing record in 2008. Take Panthers.

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Indianapolis Colts (-7.5)

I think the Colts will be an even better team under Jim Caldwell. They won't be so dependent on Peyton Manning each and every game, especially each and every game with Jacksonville. In the past, it seemed like Manning always have to pull it out in the fourth quarter against the jaguars.

Under Caldwell, the Colts will maintain their upfield speed advantage on defense with Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis, while getting bigger and stronger inside to limit to opposing running game. On offense, the combination of Joseph Addai and Donald Brown could be the best two-back rotation in football.

That will mean Manning's play action passes will be very effective. The Jaguars have a great running back in Maurice Jones-Drew, but he has a re-built offensive line blocking for him that may include two rookies starting against the Colts. Take Colts.

Kansas City Chiefs @ Baltimore Ravens (-12.5)

Kansas City is rebuilding the organization from top to bottom, and the Chiefs needed a house cleaning. Cassel might be the answer at quarterback, but the Chiefs won't know until they get him some weapons.

With no receivers on the outside who can challenge their suspect secondary, the Ravens' front seven will dominate the game. Offensively, the Ravens will establish the run, but Kansas City will put up some resistance. But by the end of the game, Baltimore will have prevailed. Take Ravens.

Washington Redskins @ New York Giants (-6.5)

Last year, Washington started the season 6-2 and ended the season 2-6. In many ways, the question is which Redskins team will show up early in this NFL season. Until Hakeem Nicks reminds people of Plaxico Burress, New York will not be as good on offence as they were previously.

Eli Manning, just like his brother, is an excellent play-action passing quarterback, but he will miss his top target until somebody jumps to the forefront. History is on the Giants' side. Last year, they won both games by a combined score of 37-14 and have won five of the last six head-to-head. But, divisional football is different; it's always closer. If Washington can handle the Giants' pass rushers, it could come down to a field goal. I think it will. Take points and Redskins.

St-Louis Rams @ Seattle Seahawks (-8.5)

Rams rookie right tackle Jason Smith will be starting his first regular-season game in what is one of the toughest places for an opposing offense to play. The fact that Marc Bulger is coming off a finger injury that has him iffy isn't helping matter.

The Seahawks see this as the first chance to show that 2008 was an injury-induced aberration. Matt Hasselbeck looked fully recovered from the back injury that bothered him last year, and T.J. Houshmandzadeh has quickly shown he's a reliable target in the red zone. That's going to add up to a long day for St. Louis. Take Seahawks.

San Francisco 49ers @ Arizona Cardinals (-6.5)

The Cardinals looked terrible in their final two exhibition games and reminded fans of the team that was blown out three times in the final five weeks of last season. This team, however, could flip the switch on and off weekly.

Coach Ken Whisenhunt isn't overly concerned with the Cards' 0-4 preseason record, but some of his key players are worried. Warner said the team emerged from the preseason with only embarrassment. Safety Adrian Wilson and receiver Larry Fitzgerald weren't happy, either. That means the Cardinals' best players are motivated, and University of Phoenix Stadium provides a great home-field advantage. Carefully take Cardinals.

Chicago Bears @ Green Bay Packers (-3.5)

This game is more critical to the Packers because they are defending home field advantage. Green Bay is carrying momentum from the preseason and will be attacking the Bears offense with their new blitz scheme. Expect the Packers to give up lots of yards while they grow into their defense. Luckily for them, Rodgers will be putting a lot on the board, too. Take Packers.

Buffalo Bills @ New England Patriots (-10.5)

The Patriots have owned the Bills, winning 11 games in a row against Buffalo and 16 of the last 17. And if Buffalo struggles early, the "here we go again" mindset could emerge. As for the Patriots, they have a lot to prove, from the health of Brady's new knee to the effectiveness of a revamped defense.

Don’t think they won't take this opportunity to attempt to prove to the NFL that they are back after a year away from the playoffs. As woeful as the Bills' offense has been, New England's message may be sent sooner rather than later. Brady's return in front of a home crowd is too much of a feel-good story for New England to ruin it. Take Patriots.

San Diego Chargers @ Oakland Raiders (+9.5)

The Chargers scored 62 total points in the two games against the Raiders last year and going into this one San Diego is healthier and better than last year. This will be an excellent test, an evaluation, for JaMarcus Russell. The Raiders let Jeff Garcia go, so Russell knows it is his position. Will that be shown in terms of confidence or complacency? He has to be polished in all his reads and decisions. Shawne Merriman and Shaun Phillips are excellent pass-rushing linebackers.

If Oakland puts itself into too many second-and-long situations, the integrity of the pocket will collapse. On the opposite side, Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Drew Brees -- I always seem to forget about Philip Rivers, who had 4009 passing yards and 34 touchdowns. There is no reason he won't pick up on his success of last year, starting Monday night. And, finally, LaDainian Tomlinson; people say he is getting old and he is. 30 is old for a running back, but he remains a genuine threat. Chargers roll. Take Chargers.

By: Aengus Moorehead @ 21:47 | Category: Football  | Comments: 0 | Permalink

Week 1

September 9 2009 @ 19:06

Greetings lasses and lads.

The NFL kicks off its 2009 season on Thursday as the defending Super Bowl champion Pittsburgh Steelers host the Tennessee Titans.

It remains to be seen if the championship reign of Mike Tomlin's Steelers will be a reign of terror or not, but the Pittsburgh D is still plenty scary. From this seat it's hard not give the Steelers the preseason nod.

Do the Steelers have the horses to make it two in a row? Absolutely, but there are plenty of other contenders looking to make sure the champs go one and done.

With Tom Terrific back in the fold in Foxboro, the lauded Pats offence should be able to put up big numbers in 2009. Last season they barely missed a beat after Brady's injury, winning 11 games with former backup Matt Cassel and narrowly missing the playoffs.

Teams with great quarterbacks always seem to rise to the top no matter how their defenses fare which is the case in San Diego and Indy and you can never disregard the leadership Philip Rivers and Peyton Manning bring in to their respective squad. Let’s not forget about  Carson Palmer who can turn things around with a flick of an arm.

Contenders in the AFC: Pittsburgh, New England, San Diego & Indianapolis.

My pick: New England.

Watch for: Houston.

A couple of big additions in the NFC might have people looking to Minnesota and Philadelphia respectively when it comes to Super Bowl picks but don’t hold your breath Viking fans for the “cancer who won’t disappear” will undoubtedly putrefy any good cells off a great core of able bodies you possess. The Packers will see to that.

Eagle fans can breathe a little easier though. Donovan McNabb is no Brett Favre, he cares about ...the team. And with Michael Vick on the sidelines and McNabb at the helm, the Eagles will soar in January.

Unlike the AFC, quarterbacks in the NFC are emotionally fragile and are prone to mistakes. Apart from Donovan McNabb and Kurt Warner, I do not see stability or foresight with the men in place at such a crucial position. Romo, Manning, Campbell and Cutler are names that do not inspire optimism. As usual, Favre will get off the hook because of Adrian Peterson like he did in Green Bay with Ahman Green but I digress. I see Aaron Rodgers doing great things for the Packers this season and finally come into view from the shadow of his selfish predecessor and upstage him as a leader of men.

 

Contenders in the NFC: Philadelphia, New York, Minnesota & Dallas.

My pick: Philadelphia.

Watch for: Green Bay.

 

Week 1

My record against the spread:

Last season: 133-123

 

Tennessee Titans @ Pittsburgh Steelers (-5.5)

This is a matchup of two of the best teams in the AFC in 2008, and both are expected to contend for the conference championship again in 2009. The Titans, at 13-3, had the AFC's best record last season and were the last team to beat the Steelers, a 31-14 win at home in Week 16. The Titans were also the only team in 2008 to score more than 24 points against the league's No. 1 defense by putting up 21 of their 31 in the second half in a game that determined the No. 1 playoff seed in the AFC.

Now does that directly relate to this game, being a brand new season? Maybe a little. The Titans do not fear the Steelers and the two teams possess more similarities than diversities. Both are excellent running teams that also play very good run defense. The Steelers do have an advantage at quarterback; Ben Roethlisberger is a better down field passer than Kerry Collins and they can count on proven receivers. But the Titans may have the best secondary in the league. And yes, without Albert Hayneswoth, the run defense suffers but the Titans have had a lot of time to develop his replacement.

One of the Titans' biggest keys to success last season was the team's ability to protect QB Kerry Collins. Collins was sacked just eight times all season, and only once in the team's regular season win over the Steelers in December. The Steelers, who had an AFC-best 51 sacks last year, want to change that. Communication up front will be crucial, as well as blitz-pickup for the running backs.

The Titans made life miserable for Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger in last year's game, sacking him five times while also forcing several fumbles. And yes, that was without Haynesworth. The Titans will use a rotation at defensive tackle to keep players fresh, and aim to get to Roethlisberger up the middle just like last year.

The Steelers had success throwing deep against the Titans last season, and it is one of their offensive mantras for this season. The development of Limas Sweed as the No. 3 receiver and the deep speed of rookie Mike Wallace should give Big Ben more opportunities down the field.

The Titans were really the only team to move the ball successfully against the Steelers' defense last season, the lone exception being Arizona scoring 13 points in the fourth quarter of Super Bowl XLIII. And, even playing without defensive tackle Albert Haynesworth, Tennessee was able to pressure Roethlisberger and force him into two costly interceptions, one of which was returned for an 83-yard TD. But the Steelers have not let their Super Bowl championship erase the memory of how they played against the Titans last December, and the opportunity to channel the anticipation in the NFL opener will be enough to avenge their last defeat. In a tight one. Take points and Titans.

By: Aengus Moorehead @ 19:06 | Category: Football  | Comments: 0 | Permalink