Week 16

December 24 2009 @ 12:24

Greetings Lasses and Lads.

My upset of the week: Chargers (+2.5) at Titans.

My no-brainer of the week: Cowboys (-6.5) at Redskins.

My record against the spread:

Last week: 8-8.

Season: 112-112.

 

San Diego at Tennessee (-2.5)

Last week: Chargers beat Bengals 27-24; Titans beat Dolphins 27-24.

The Chargers clinched the AFC West title in Week 15, but are seeking the second seed in AFC and a first-round playoff bye. The Titans, meanwhile, are fighting for stay alive in the AFC wild-card race. At 7-7, they must win out, and even then they would need help. They would make history if they can do it -- no team has rallied from a 0-6 start to make the playoffs. The Titans have won seven-of-eight to give themselves a shot.

Everyone is been talking about the undefeated Colts in the AFC, but out West the Chargers have become one of the NFL's best teams without much notice. Are they for real? Can they be a formidable foe for the Colts in the playoffs? Their game against the Titans should at least provide answers. The Chargers have been a real nemesis for the Titans over the years -- they've won the past six games in the series -- and they've also been trouble for the Colts. If they can stay on a roll, they're a team everyone should worry about.

The Titans' biggest threat, RB Chris Johnson, is averaging 123.6 yards a game rushing and is also Tennessee's leading receiver with 44 receptions for 446 yards. The Chargers have trouble with fast, shifty receivers, and there is no one faster at the position than Johnson. The Chargers did a great job stymieing the Bengals' running game at times, but a team doesn't get away with breakdowns against Johnson.

Johnson is the NFL's most dangerous back, with an NFL record three 85-yard touchdown runs in 2009 alone. He's averaging 5.7 yards per carry, and been a threat every time he's touch the football. But teams have found a way to slow down Johnson in the second half at least -- he ran for 33 yards on 15 carries in the second half against Miami as the Dolphins nearly rallied to win. The Chargers will try and make things difficult for Johnson throughout.

Over the past seven games, opponents have made 27 trips inside the Chargers' 20-yard line. They have scored 12 touchdowns, kicked 10 field goals, fumbled three times and gone out on downs twice. The Chargers have won games by one, three, seven (twice) and eight points in that span. So red zone stops have played a big part in their success.

The Titans have allowed six 300-yard passers this season, and are 31st in the NFL in pass defense, allowing 265.1 yards per game. Plenty of good quarterbacks have lit them up. Well, Chargers quarterback Philip Rivers is one of the NFL's hottest, with 3,891 passing yards and a 25-to-9 touchdown-to-interception total. The Titans must be strong in the secondary, and that starts with cornerback Nick Harper, who has struggled on his side.

Vince Young is making good decisions and throwing the ball accurately. In eight starts he has thrown four interceptions and 10 touchdowns, and he's not forcing the ball into double coverage. It's a key example of how Young has improved, and he must keep it up against the Chargers, who have 12 interceptions. With the Chargers putting an emphasis on slowing Johnson, Young must make big throws and avoid mistakes.

The Titans have been on a roll in winning seven of their past eight games. Johnson has led the way, and his success has also taken pressure off Young. Even with starting linebackers Keith Bulluck and David Thornton out against the Chargers, the Titans will keep the game close. And a team that's found a way to win in the second half of the season will do so again, and stay alive for one more week. Take Chargers.

Houston at Miami (-2.5)

Last week: Texans beat Rams 16-13; Dolphins lost to Titans 27-24.

The Texans offense took the week off last week in St. Louis and they will get schooled if they bring the same performance this week in Miami. The Texans do have a very explosive passing game but their running game has disappeared. Whether it’s Ryan Moats, Chris Brown or Arian Foster, the Texans don’t have a running game to lean on, which will make it tough on the road.

For Miami, they continue to improve on a weekly basis. Last week, turnovers cost them dearly as they dug took deep of a hole against a Tennessee Titans. The Dolphins should have a big edge on the line of scrimmage as the Texans have no pass rush. The Dolphins should be able to run the ball well with Ricky Williams, which will help this offense move the ball and score points.

The Texans defense has been a microcosm of the team: some weeks they show up and other weeks they don’t. They only have 25 sacks on the year and they have given up 14 rushes of 20 yards or longer, which is fourth-most in the NFL. They are going up against one of the best offenses in the NFL.

Meanwhile, the Dolphins defense is ranked in the middle of the pack and they will get tested by a good passing game this week. The good news is that they have 40 sacks this year, which is the second most in the league. They should be able to get to Matt Schaub this week and everyone knows that he’s not only mistake-prone, but also injury-prone.

The Texans are a terrible rushing team, averaging just 88.7 yards per game on the ground and playing a second consecutive road game is not the cure. The Dolphins have a very good pass rush and they’ll tee off on the pass-oriented Texans.

On offense, the Dolphins will dominate the line of scrimmage and do enough to control the ball and get the important win. Take Dolphins.

Denver at Philadelphia (-6.5)

Last week: Broncos lost to Raiders 20-19; Eagles beat 49ers 27-13.

The Broncos are at 8-6 and have a horde of teams behind them at 7-7, which means wins in the last two weeks are critical. If they win out, they are going to the playoffs but if they lose one, then we start opening the tome of tiebreakers.

For Philadelphia, they are going to the playoffs – it’s just a matter of which seed they will be. If they keep on winning, they’ll be the No. 3 seed and have home field advantage at least in the first round. If not, the Eagles could fall as far as sixth and have to travel on the road through the entire playoffs.

The Broncos offense completely disappeared last week at home to Oakland, which is an ominous sign now that they are on the road in Philadelphia. Last week against Oakland, eight of their 12 drives lasted five plays or less, the running game produced 3.3 yards per carry and quarterback Kyle Orton was just 19-of-34 passing. Clearly, Orton is not the answer and if it wasn’t evident last week, it will be in a tough road game in Philadelphia.

Meanwhile, the Eagles offense is scolding hot right now. Philly has scored at least 23 points in six straight games and they have averaged 30 points per game in that stretch. Very quietly, the offense has led them to five straight wins and the Donovan McNabb to DeSean Jackson combo is about as hot as it gets right. Considering what the Raiders second, third and fourth string quarterbacks did to Denver last week, the Eagles should be salivating.

Denver fans have to be wondering what has happened to Ted Nolan’s defense. The unit that barely gave up in second half points in their first six games has been picked apart in recent weeks. Last week, they allowed Charlie Frye/JaMarcus Russell/J.P. Losman – the Raiders used all three quarterbacks on the final drive – to march down the field and score a game-winning touchdown. The pass rush is non-existent, the run defense was carved up for 241 rushing yards and the secondary failed at the most critical time. The only thing going for them is that the Eagles don’t run the ball so much so they may not expose the run defense as much as the Raiders did last week.

Philadelphia defense has been playing much better as of late and they should like their chances this week. They have the secondary to blanket Brandon Marshall and clearly for Denver, there are virtually no other threats in the passing game. Since their running game has also been off, the Eagles should have plenty of opportunity to tee off on Kyle Orton with their blitzes. He’s very mistake-prone when he is pressured.

Common sense suggests that the Broncos play better this week than they did last week but they just aren’t a very good team overall. The Broncos are very limited on offense when they can’t run the ball, they don’t have secondary options other than Brandon Marshall and the defense is starting to crack.

Combine that with a matchup against a hot Eagles squad and you should have a Philly win and cover. Take Eagles.

Baltimore at Pittsburgh (-2.5)

Last week: Ravens beat Bears 31-7; Steelers beat Packers 37-36.

There really is nothing better than a Steelers-Ravens game that really means something, and this one does for both teams. The rivalry is intense enough because both teams pride themselves on tough, aggressive defense, even though the Steelers have shown little of that in the second half of the season.

This time, there are playoff implications as well. A loss will all but eliminate the Steelers from wild-card contention. The Ravens, who won the first meeting in overtime, can stay in the hunt for the AFC North title with a win, even though the Bengals own the tiebreaker.

The Ravens' offense suddenly has come alive, scoring 79 points in the past two games. That could spell trouble for a Steelers defense that has not been as stout against the run and has really struggled against the pass. The corners are playing soft because they’re afraid to make a mistake, the safeties can’t stop deep pass plays down the middle, and the defense overall hasn’t had an interception in the past six games.

The Ravens have lost their past three games in Heinz Field and, unlike the first meeting, will have to contend with Ben Roethlisberger. He did not play in the Nov. 29 game in Baltimore because of post-concussion symptoms.

The Ravens have to take chances downfield. Pittsburgh's cornerbacks have been awful this season, incapable of defending long passes. Look for them to play far off the ball, and look for the Ravens to take advantage of that. If second-year quarterback Joe Flacco is accurate, the Ravens could have a lot of passing yards.

Pittsburgh's defense has been susceptible at giving up big plays in the middle of the field, something they did not allow last season. They have given up nine passes of 40 yards or longer, seven more than last season, and the biggest culprits are safeties Ryan Clark and Tyrone Carter.

After throwing for a team-record 503 yards and three TDs against the Packers, Ben Roethlisberger might have to do more of the same against the Ravens. The Steelers defense has allowed 21 or more points in the fourth quarter three times this season, forcing the offense to strike quickly through the air.

The Steelers have fared better against teams with winning records than those with losing records. They have lost to the Bears, Chiefs, Raiders and Browns, but have victories over the Chargers, Vikings, Broncos and Packers. There is no question they play to their competition, which might bode well against the Ravens.

They lost the first meeting with Baltimore because Roethlisberger was out and Dennis Dixon was in at QB. If the Steelers play with passion and purpose Sunday, they'll have a chance. But their defense has let them down all year; if Roethlisberger can't bail them out again, they’re done. Take Ravens.

NY Jets at Indianapolis (-5.5)

Last week: Jets lost to Falcons 10-7; Colts beat Jaguars 35-31.

The pursuit of perfection continues. But for the Colts to become just the second team in NFL history to open a season 15-0, it might require significant contributions from several backups.

 Coach Jim Caldwell has been vague regarding playing time for his starters, which could be an indication QB Peyton Manning, wide receiver Reggie Wayne, running back Joseph Addai, tight end Dallas Clark, defensive ends Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis and other selected front-line players might not play to the finish Sunday. The goal remains being healthy for a deep run into the postseason, not 16-0.  

A couple of players are nearing individual milestones, and don't be surprised if the coaches do whatever possible -- and within the flow of the game -- to make them happen. Clark needs 11 receptions to become just the second tight end in NFL history with at least 100 catches. Wayne needs eight catches for his second 100-catch season. Manning is a history buff and understands the importance of certain achievements. If possible, he'll aid Clark and Wayne.

The Jets sustained a crippling blow in last week's home loss to Atlanta, but they remain in contention for a wild-card playoff berth. But it hinges on a win over the Colts. Rookie QB Mark Sanchez has been erratic, but the Jets' defense is one of the league's best. The defense might have to carry the day and could feast on Colts rookie QB Curtis Painter if he plays extensively in place of Manning.

Once again, after throwing three picks against Atlanta, Sanchez told reporters he must be smarter with the ball. But he has said that numerous times this season and hasn't been able to marry those thoughts with his actions. Seventeen of the rookie's 20 interceptions have come in five multiple-interception games, all of which, naturally, the Jets have lost. He must stop forcing throws and locking in on receivers for the Jets a chance to succeed.

First-year head coach Rex Ryan has taking some unusual tacks this season and took another one this week when he told his team the specific results of other games (plus a Jets' victory over Indy) that need to happen to give the Jets a chance to control their own destiny heading into the regular season's final week. The Jets must stay focused, no matter if starters or backups are in the game for the Colts, and no matter what is happening on the out-of-town scoreboard.

Selected starters, including Manning, might be on a play count Sunday. Can they do enough in what might be limited playing time to build a lead? More important, if the starters get in front, can the backups hold the lead? Liberal substitution might be most detrimental on defense. If Freeney and Mathis are joined on the sideline by linebackers Gary Brackett and Clint Session and safety Antoine Bethea, Jets running back Thomas Jones might be too much to handle.

Sanchez has shown promise during his rookie season with 12 touchdown passes. But he's also given too many reminders that he's a rookie with 20 interceptions and assorted bad decisions. Even if Freeney and Mathis see limited playing time, defensive coordinator Larry Coyer must find ways to pressure Sanchez. Backup Eric Foster is coming off a two-sack game at Jacksonville and can be a force whether he lines up at end or tackle. It's more likely the defense will rely on occasional blitzes to confuse Sanchez and force him into bad plays. Second-year pro Philip Wheeler likely will play a lot and could be used in blitzing situations.

If Painter sees his first action of the season, the coaches must keep him out of difficult situations. The game figures to be a low-scoring affair, especially if Manning's playing time is limited, so turnovers and bad decisions will be magnified. Painter has a decent grasp of the offense, but he has yet to run it in a regular season. The Jets' defense is capable of disrupting a veteran QB with linebacker Bart Scott, defensive end Shaun Ellis and the rest. It can totally dominate an inexperienced QB.

Colts players want to play out the string and make a run at 16-0 on the way to a 19-0 season. The Indianapolis coaches are more focused on being as healthy as possible going into postseason. Look for the coaches to win the debate. Even so, the Colts are a resourceful bunch. If Manning and the starters can get off to a good start, the backups are solid enough to hang on, but barely. Take points and Jets.

Dallas at Washington (+6.5)

Last week: Cowboys beat Saints 24-17; Redskins lost to Giants 45-12.

The Redskins were terrible last week in a primetime game that was a deviation from their recent good form. Washington's offensive line is bad and getting worse, especially if right tackle Stephon Heyer can't play because of a knee injury. So the Redskins just aren't in a position to do much offensively against Dallas, and QB Jason Campbell could get pummeled.

The Cowboys don't have a terrific December record, and Washington's defense has enough pride to play much better after last week's disaster. But the Cowboys will control both lines and steadily wear down the Redskins. Take Cowboys.

Seattle at Green Bay (-13.5)

Last week: Seahawks lost to Buccaneers 24-7; Packers lost to Steelers 37-36.

There's no reason to think the Seahawks will come up with a winning performance Sunday, unless the Packers decide not to show up.

After losing to Pittsburgh last week, that's not likely. Expect Rodgers to have his way with the Seahawks' 29th-ranked pass defense and for TE Jermichael Finley to make more big plays. Take Packers.

Oakland at Cleveland (-3.5)

Last week: Raiders beat Broncos 20-19; Browns beat Chiefs 41-34.

Ghosts of Cleveland quarterbacks past will haunt the Dawg Pound, as one former Brown, either Frye or Gradkowski, will start for the Raiders, and with Brady Quinn lost for the final two games, it will put the home's team passing game back in the hands of Derek Anderson.

With that shaky QB situation on both sides, look for plenty more running, as the presidentially named Jerome Harrison and Michael Bush go for big-game encores against two more shoddy run defenses. Take Raiders.

Kansas City at Cincinnati (-13.5)

Last week: Chiefs lost to Browns 41-34; Bengals lost to Chargers 27-24.

Poor weather conditions are in the forecast, so Mother Nature could play the role of equalizer during Kansas City's visit to Paul Brown Stadium in Cincinnati. However, neither sleet nor snow nor freezing temperatures should be able to stop the Bengals from crashing the postseason party for only the second time (2005) since the 1990 season.

The Bengals swept the AFC North (6-0), but they are 0-3 against the AFC West, having lost all three games to the Broncos, Raiders and Chargers in the final minute. The time is now for redemption. Look for the Bengals to get a two-score lead, bleed the clock and tear the ribbons and wrapping paper off an AFC North championship. Take Bengals.

Buffalo at Atlanta (-8.5)

Last week: Bills lost to Patriots 17-10; Falcons beat Jets 10-7.

The Falcons want to reach a 6-2 mark in the Georgia Dome this season. They are 12-3 overall under second-year coach Mike Smith at home and have dropped the last two. They'll want to get the Georgia Dome rocking in the 2009 home finale. Take Falcons.

Carolina at NY Giants (-6.5)

Last week: Panthers beat Vikings 26-7; Giants beat Redskins 45-12.

The Giants' desperation helped fuel a 45-12 rout of the Redskins on Monday; can they exploit it again? Eli Manning is playing at a high level and no doubt Coach John Fox will do everything in his power to disrupt Manning and try to confuse him, no easy task.

Figure the Panthers' Steve Smith will be given extra attention to prevent the big plays that have hurt the Giants in past weeks, meaning there won't be an extra defender in the box to stop Carolina's lethal running game. Fox presumably is coaching for his job; his club likely won't go down without a fight. Take points and Panthers.

Tampa Bay at New Orleans (-14.5)

Last week: Buccaneers beat Seahawks 24-7; Saints lost to Cowboys 24-17.

The Saints will be looking to take out their frustrations on Tampa Bay, which isn't great news for the Buccaneers. New Orleans will be motivated to play its best ball, both to wash out the bad taste from last week and to regain some momentum heading into the playoffs.

The Saints have shown some cracks in the armor in recent weeks, but when they play well, they can pile up points in a hurry but, not by a couple of TD’s. Take points and Buccaneers.

Jacksonville at New England (-7.5)

Last week: Jaguars lost to Colts 35-31; Patriots beat Bills 17-10.

This is the Patriots' final home game, a chance for them to finish perfect at Gillette Stadium. To do so, they'll have to avoid some of the mistakes they've made over the previous weeks. There can't be a collective letdown after halftime.

Coach Bill Belichick's team can't repeat the same offensive inconsistency. Brady must be sharper. The Jaguars have had three more days to prepare, and they may be ready with some tricks. But mostly, Jacksonville is just tough and physical. They hand the ball to Jones-Drew and dare opponents to stop it. If the Patriots can buckle their chinstraps, they should be able to handle it but the Jags keep it close. Take points and Jaguars.

St-Louis at Arizona (-13.5)

Last week: Rams lost to Texans 16-13; Cardinals beat Lions 31-24.

Bottom line: If the Cardinals take this game seriously, it should be over early. The Rams just don't match up well against them.

Rams cornerback Ron Bartell this week called Houston's Andre Johnson the best receiver in the league. Larry Fitzgerald might have something to say about that. The Cardinals should win this one by 20 or so, but they have a way of making most games interesting. Take points and Rams.

Detroit at San Francisco (-11.5)

Last week: Lions lost to Cardinals 31-24; 49ers lost to Eagles 27-13.

The 49ers have a rare opportunity as the season draws to a close. With winnable games against Detroit (2-12) and St, Louis (1-13), they have a chance to avoid a losing season for the first time since 2002.

The Lions, meanwhile, want to see progress from young players like Matthew Stafford and, more importantly, would like to build some momentum going into 2010. Look for a slow start from both teams, but for the 49ers to pull away in the second half. Take points and Lions.

Minnesota at Chicago (+6.5)

Last week: Vikings lost to Panthers 26-7; Bears lost to Ravens 31-7.

Expect the Bears to play much better than they did in their first game against the Vikings. One reason: They've already seen Minnesota, which helps. But they're also at their home field and not on artificial turf with the loudspeaker system pumping in extra noise, as many suspect occurs at the Metrodome.

 Chicago will be in the cold and looking to finish strong to help save coach Lovie Smith's job. The Bears have been better at home when it comes to avoiding lopsided games. Take Bears.

 

By: Aengus Moorehead @ 12:24 | Category: Football  | Comments: 0 | Permalink

Week15

December 16 2009 @ 21:43

Greetings Lasses and Lads.

My upset of the week: Colts (-6.5) at Jaguars.

My no-brainer of the week: Texans (-9.5) at Rams.

My record against the spread:

Last week: 8-8.

Season: 104-104.

 

Indianapolis at Jacksonville (+6.5)

Last week: Colts beat Broncos 28-16; Jaguars lost to Dolphins 14-10.

Just when it appeared Jacksonville whiffed on a prime opportunity with its loss to Miami, it turns out the team's playoff hopes are still alive.

The Jags must win their three remaining games to secure a wild-card berth, and with the team announcing a sellout (the first by the franchise all season), and the undefeated division-rival Colts coming to town, the stage appears set for a hotly contested showdown on Thursday night.

The first time the teams met, a failed two-point conversion run by the Jags in the fourth quarter is all that separated the teams in Indianapolis' 14-12 victory in the season opener. It was one of closest games of the Colts' 13-0 run. There's been talk that Indianapolis -- having already clinched home-field advantage for the playoffs -- will sit key players against the Jags. But Colts coach Jim Caldwell dismissed that notion, saying that the health of several key players is the only factor that will limit playing time.

As of Tuesday, Indianapolis had listed 29 players on the injury report including: running back Joseph Addai, offensive tackles Ryan Diem and Tony Ugoh and defensive ends Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis. J

Jacksonville, meanwhile, plays its most important game of the season up to this point hampered by injuries, too. Starting fullback Greg Jones is likely out, while the status for starting cornerback Rashean Mathis, defensive tackle John Henderson and receiver Mike Sims-Walker remain question marks.

The Jaguars are in a must-win mode against a bitter unbeaten division rival. The Jags are 5-2 at Jacksonville Municipal Stadium, but that includes three-point wins over the Chiefs, Rams and Bills. Peyton Manning and the Colts can put Jacksonville's character to the test by jumping out to an early lead and making it fight to keep its wild-card playoff hopes alive.

Running back Maurice Jones-Drew can take over a game with his blend of power and speed. He has eclipsed the 1,000-yard mark for the first time, is averaging 4.5 yards per carry and has 14 rushing TDs. The keys to coordinator Larry Coyer's run defense are swarming to the ball and gang-tackling with linebackers Gary Brackett and Clint Session and safeties Melvin Bullitt and Antoine Bethea. Brackett and Session are undersized but tenacious.

 Jones-Drew is in a slump. The best way to get him out of it is to feed him the ball against the Colts' banged-up front seven. Given the Colts' injury situation, their coaches must decide whether winning one game is as important as remaining healthy for the postseason. If the Jags can pound away with a physical ground game, it will force Indy's coaches to make that decision quickly.

Because of Jacksonville's physical nature and Indianapolis' injury situation, it's likely the Colts at some point will sit key players to rest them for the playoffs. The Jags must take advantage.

The key for Jacksonville is to limit explosive gains in the passing game with mistake-free play in the secondary. In addition, the Jags must keep the game close by limiting Indianapolis' possessions.

The best way to do that is to establish the running game and maintain drives. But that could be tough because it appears that Jones-Drew is finally showing signs of wear.  Manning and the Colts instinctively will try to win the game with their best assets but a loss will without him won’t make much of a difference in their mindset. However, it is desperation time for the Jags and they will cover. Take points and Jaguars.

Dallas at New Orleans (-6.5)

Last week: Cowboys lost to Chargers 20-17; Saints beat Falcons 26-23.

Despite recent scares, the Saints are 13-0 -- one of seven teams ever to reach that mark. They must decide soon if they want to go for 16-0 or rest their starters for the playoffs. But entering Saturday's game, they are full speed ahead as they try to clinch the No. 1 seed. They have a 1.5-game lead over the 11-2 Minnesota Vikings, who would win a tie-breaker if it came to that.

The Cowboys, meanwhile, are threatening to sabotage another season with a December collapse after losing their past two games to fall to 8-5. Dallas is now 3-7 after Dec. 1 under Coach Wade Philips, and 18-36 after Dec. 1 since 1996, including a 0-4 mark in the playoffs.

The Saints have struggled in narrow wins at Washington and Atlanta, but having pulled them out in the end only adds to their growing confidence. New Orleans played its best game of the season three weeks ago in a Monday night game in the Superdome against New England, with MVP candidate Drew Brees earning the highest possible passer rating of 158.3. There should be a similar atmosphere in the Dome this week for the Saturday night showdown against Dallas, which could help inspire another dominant performance from Brees and the Saints.

A national TV audience. The quest for an undefeated season. An explosive offensive attack. The Cowboys, more than any other game this season, must make sure they don't get blown out in the first quarter, where the Saints have been productive and the Cowboys have not.

New Orleans has scored 71 points in the first quarter, while allowing 85. Dallas has not scored a first possession touchdown since Thanksgiving Day last year and has totaled just 43 points this season. The Saints' offense revs up in the second and third quarters. If Dallas struggles to stop New Orleans in the first quarter, there's a good chance this game will be over by halftime.

In their most impressive victories, the Saints jumped to early leads, then run out the clock and forced opponents to become one-dimensional. But when needed, they have been able to make up deficits quickly, most notably erasing a 10-point deficit at Washington in the final six minutes two weeks ago.

DeMarcus Ware strained his neck in the fourth quarter against San Diego last week and probably won't play against the Saints. That makes the Cowboys' task of trying to sack Brees more difficult. Ware leads the team with nine sacks. No one else has more than four. And New Orleans has allowed 15 sacks in 433 pass attempts.

The Saints lead the NFL with 35.8 points per game and are within striking distance of the NFL record of 36.8, set by the New England Patriots in 2007. Brees is the NFL's top-rated passer, and he leads the league with 32 touchdown passes. He has an embarrassment of riches at his disposal, with third-year receiver Robert Meachem emerging as a consistent playmaker alongside receivers Marques Colston and Devery Henderson, tight end Jeremy Shockey and tailbacks Reggie Bush, Pierre Thomas and Mike Bell, among others.

The Cowboys have been inconsistent on offense, but when they're on, they can match points with New Orleans' high-powered offense. Dallas comes into this game as the more desperate team, having lost its past two games to threaten its playoff position.

But the Saints play up to the competition in their most high-profile games, especially in the Superdome, where they dominated the Patriots and New York Giants. The Cowboys must play their best game and hope the Saints play a third consecutive flat game to pull off the road upset. However, a customary garbage TD will keep the boys in play.  The Cowboys cover.

Green Bay at Pittsburgh (-1.5)

Last week: Packers beat Bears 21-14; Steelers lost to Browns 13-6.

The Packers are winners of five straight and have the upper hand in getting one of the two NFC wild-card spots. On the other hand, the Steelers have lost five in a row and must win their remaining three games to maintain even a slim chance they could get a wild-card spot at 9-7.

But after losses to the Chiefs, Raiders and Browns, there is some question whether they can win any of their remaining three games, let alone all of them. Beyond that, Sunday's game matches two of the most storied and successful franchises in the NFL. The Packers have never played a regular-season game in Heinz Field and will be making their first appearance in Pittsburgh since 1998.

Despite good numbers, QB Aaron Rodgers hasn't been able to lead the team past the middle of the pack in red-zone efficiency. Some of the blame might rest on coach Mike McCarthy's play-calling. He tends to go with empty backfields and flood the area. McCarthy could isolate TE Jermichael Finley more on the outside or give RB Ryan Grant a chance to finish the drive.

Although three of Pittsburgh's losses during their five-game losing streak came against bottom dwellers, they fared better against teams with a winning record, beating the Chargers, Vikings and Broncos during a five-game winning streak earlier in the season.

The Steelers haven't allowed a 100-yard rusher in 35 consecutive games, including postseason, but they allowed a season-high 171 yards to the Browns. Their streak might be in jeopardy against Ryan Grant, who had 137 yards on 20 carries and scored two touchdowns against the Bears.

The defense installed in Green Bay by defensive coordinator Dom Capers is essentially the same one he installed when he came to the Steelers as defensive coordinator under Bill Cowher in 1992. It will be up to QB Ben Roethlisberger, who was sacked eight times against the Browns, to recognize their blitz tendencies.

For the first time all season, the fight and desire appear to have left the Steelers. That was never more apparent than in their 13-6 loss to the anemic Browns, a game in which they didn't even turn the ball over. Their defense hasn't intercepted a pass in five consecutive games, and their ability to stop the run becomes more suspect each week.

Even one of the top playmakers, OLB James Harrison, the NFL's defensive player of the year in 2008, hasn't had a sack in three games and hasn't forced a fumble -- his specialty -- in eight games. Pittsburgh has lost all its confidence and is having a difficult time doing anything right. The Steelers are an ostentatious team however; pride has always been their utmost priority and they will deliver. Take Steelers.

Cincinnati at San Diego (-6.5)

Last week: Bengals lost to Vikings 30-10; Chargers beat Cowboys 20-17.

The winner will have the inside track on getting the AFC's No.2 seed and accompanying first-week bye and guaranteed home divisional game. The Chargers (10-3) are currently second in the conference, the Bengals (9-4) third. Neither team has clinched their division yet, though the Bengals can win the AFC North with a victory or a Baltimore Ravens loss. The Chargers can clinch the AFC West by winning or tying Cincinnati and having the Denver Broncos tie or by the Broncos losing.

The Chargers' 27.8 points per game is fourth in the NFL, while the Bengals are allowing just 16.7 points a game, tied for second-fewest. The Chargers have scored at least 31 points in five of their past eight games; the Bengals just allowed 30 (to Minnesota) this past Sunday.

Antonio Cromartie and Chad Ochocinco, two of the biggest talkers in the league, will face off at least part of the afternoon. While Ochocinco's production has tapered a bit, he remains a threat and is closing in on another 1,000-yard season. Cromartie is almost impenetrable and quarterbacks are staying away from him. The two attention hounds will likely spend a good portion of the day jawing and could even provide some actual highlights with their play.

In order to upset the Chargers, who have won an NFL-record 16 straight December games, the Bengals must inject some life into a dormant passing game. This is the ideal time to get creative with flea flickers and reverses because the Chargers won't be expecting anything unusual from an offense built around a strong running game. The Bengals responded with victories after their first three losses. If they don't rebound strong after last week's debacle in Minnesota, they'll wave goodbye to a first-round playoff bye.

The Bengals have one thing going for them. All three of their opponents in the AFC North (Baltimore, Cleveland and Pittsburgh) use the same 3-4 defense that the Chargers have installed. The familiarity will be a plus for the Bengals, who should be able to run effectively against San Diego's No. 21 run defense. Staying out of third-and-long situations will allow Cincinnati to move the chains and get in position to score.

The explosive Chargers are heavily armed with dangerous playmakers in QB Philip Rivers, TBs LaDainian Tomlinson and Darren Sproles, TE Antonio Gates and WR Vincent Jackson. Containing the run and applying pressure on Rivers are keys to a victory for the Bengals, who cannot allow the elusive Sproles to break loose for any big punt or kickoff returns.

Bengals cornerbacks Leon Hall and Johnathan Joseph are talented enough to shut down the deep passing game. It's over the middle against the safety-thin Bengals where the Chargers can do the most damage.

The Chargers have allowed their last four opponents to average 5.1 yards per carry. Most of those opponents, however, have not been rushing a lot after halftime because the Chargers are leading by enough to make the opponent one-dimensional. This means the offense needs to score and the defense must make crucial stops and not allow the big running play.

Cincinnati has 28 drives of 10 or more plays, third-most in the NFL. The Bengals rank second in the NFL in both average number of plays on their scoring drives (8.98) and average time of their scoring drives (4:19). The Chargers got Dallas off the field on seven-of-eight third downs last week but have struggled intermittently throughout the season stopping drives when given the opportunity with third-and-longs.

The Bengals' best chance is likely to keep the ball away from Philip Rivers. Thinned by injuries in the secondary and more vulnerable to the pass anyway, the Bengals just might not be able to match up with the Chargers' array of targets. The Chargers are on a roll; playing as well as they have in two years, and are at home. They appear also to have played better against quality opponents than the Bengals. Even if Cincinnati moves the ball, which it probably will, the Chargers are making big plays when necessary and keeping teams from the end zone. Take points and Bengals.

NY Giants at Washington (+2.5)

Last week: Giants lost to Eagles 45-38; Redskins beat Raiders 34-13.

If the fading New York Giants want to stay in playoff contention, they can't afford to slip up against the 4-9 Redskins. New York trails Dallas by one game for second place in the NFC East. More importantly, the Cowboys lead for the second and final wild card spot as well. Green Bay is the only other NFC team in contention for a wild card spot with a winning record, so it could be a two-team race between Dallas and New York for that spot.

Washington has only won two of its last five games, but the Redskins have been competitive in each game. Despite being five games under .500, they've only been outscored by 17 points.

Their last three losses have been by a combined seven points vs. Dallas, Philadelphia and New Orleans. One thing they haven't done yet is beat an NFC East opponent; they've won at least one division game per season since 1993.

An improved offense has made them more competitive.

Offensive Coordinator Sherman Lewis has taken over as a play-caller, but he's received lots of help in the booth and is only responsible for pass plays. It's been the game plans, which Lewis doesn't craft, and the execution by the players -- especially quarterback Jason Campbell -- that has made a difference. He's posted three 100-plus passer rating days in the past five games.

The Redskins are not known as a big-play offense but they have some capability, especially with Santana Moss. The Giants are known as a big play waiting to happen with their suspect defense, which continues to have baffling communication issues this late in the season. The basic concept of players knowing and carrying out their assignments will go a long way in containing a Jason Campbell led Redskins attack that certainly is not overwhelming in any way. The Giants may have to simplify some of their defensive calls in order to achieve this.

A combination of short kickoffs from Lawrence Tynes and short punts from Jeff Feagles too often leave the already-sagging Giants defense with bad field position. Teams regularly get the ball out near the 30-yard line on kickoffs and Feagles is sending the ball out of bounds barely 40 yards downfield. Tynes may have to go with more of his squib and mortar kicks at FedEx Field and hope for fortunate bounces.

The Redskins present problems in that they are solid in stopping the pass with CBs Fred Smoot and Carlos Rogers, although the Giants have had some success in the past targeting the Washington safeties. Still, the Redskins are more vulnerable on the ground and that's where the Giants need to attack, especially if they can take advantage of the aggressiveness of Washington's up-field pass rushers.

New York's OL is no longer considered one of the best. They have not opened running lanes as in the past. Also, the Redskins have applied more pressure thanks to Brian Orakpo and Andre Carter. Too often QB Eli Manning has been comfortable in the pocket vs. them. New York is starting a rookie RT; take advantage.

New York's DL has struggled, but it still has rushers who can hurt Washington's tackles. The Redskins have dropped three straight to New York because of big plays made by the Giants' ends. QB Jason Campbell has been more decisive and quick with his releases, which helps. If that continues, they'll make big plays vs. this secondary.

This will be a difficult game for New York. One reason the Giants have won three straight over Washington is because of their line play. But neither side of the ball is performing as expected. The Redskins' OL remains an issue, but game planning has helped overcome glaring holes.

 The big concern is not allowing big plays downfield. Or, rather, a lot of them. New York will make them considering Washington surrenders them in most games. The key will be the Redskins' ability to pressure Manning and force mistakes. They have been close against good teams. Right now, the Giants aren't a good team but will score enough to cover. Take Giants.

Miami at Tennessee (-2.5)

Last week: Dolphins beat Jaguars 14-10; Titans beat Rams 47-7.

Something has to give in this one. The Dolphins and Titans both enter the game on a roll, and with plenty of momentum. Chris Johnson gives the Titans the edge in this one, however. He'll allow the Titans to control the football, and you can pretty much put him down for 100.

No matter who quarterbacks the Titans, the plan will be too feed Johnson. On defense, the Titans will also make enough plays to hold on and keep their postseason dreams alive. Take Titans.

 New England at Buffalo (+6.5)

Last week: Patriots beat Panthers 20-10; Bills beat Chiefs 16-10.

Given the string of shaky road performances by the Patriots, extending their winning streak in this series is no sure thing. The Bills want to finish strong for interim head coach Perry Fewell, who needs to run the table to have a shot (albeit a long shot) to get the permanent job. They also would love to play the role of spoiler as the Patriots are fighting off challenges by the Miami Dolphins and New York Jets in the AFC East.

At some point, the Patriots have to show they're capable of playing somewhere other than the friendly confines of Gillette Stadium. They'll play with a greater sense of urgency and prove to be the superior team in this matchup again. Take Patriots.

Arizona at Detroit (+10.5)

Last week: Cardinals beat 49ers; Lions lost to Ravens 48-3.

This is a complete mismatch no matter how you slice it. The Lions aren't going to be able to score much against Arizona's physical defense and the Cardinals' offense could score on seven straight possessions. Hey, if the Ravens can do it (which they did last week), then it shouldn't be such a tall order for the high-flying Cardinals.

The Lions have serious deficiencies in their secondary because they bust coverages on deep passing routes and they don't tackle well in the ground game, allowing big runs. Take Cardinals.

San Francisco at Philadelphia (-8.5)

Last week: 49ers lost to Cardinals; Eagles beat Giants 45-38.

The playoffs are so close for the Eagles; they can almost reach out and grab it. Even after San Francisco's impressive win against the Cardinals gave the Niners some momentum, the Eagles aren't likely to turn the ball over seven times.

San Francisco won't have an answer for the deep-threat combination of Donovan McNabb and DeSean Jackson. But the 49ers cover. Take points and 49ers.

Atlanta at NY Jets (-5.5)

Last week: Falcons lost to Saints 26-23; Jets beat Buccaneers 26-3.

Although a 2-6 skid has dropped Atlanta to 6-7, the Falcons are the most dangerous team the Jets will have played since losing to the Patriots. The Jets can't expect to play the same way they have during their winning streak.

Even without QB Matt Ryan and RB Michael Turner, the Falcons' offense put up 23 points against New Orleans, so the Jets will have to make plays on offense, rather than focus on not turning the ball over, as they have done the past three games.

The playoff-hungry Jets do have more motivation than the fading Falcons, though, and that should make a difference, especially in the fourth quarter but the Jets have a tendency against tough teams…it will be close. Take Falcons.

Chicago at Baltimore (-9.5)

Last week: Bears lost to Packers 21-14; Ravens beat Lions 48-3.

It's getting late in the year, and the difference for a lot of teams is that some have something to play for, and the others don't.

The Ravens are at home, and in playoff contention. The Bears have played poorly over the last month, and have nothing to play for. Take Ravens.

Cleveland at Kansas City (-1.5)

Last week: Browns beat Steelers 13-6; Chiefs lost to Bills 16-10.

There appears little to choose from between two forlorn programs. Neither team is capable of getting much done on offense, and both teams show considerable weakness on defense. So the game should come down to big plays and turnovers.

The Chiefs are forcing turnovers on defense, and RB Jamaal Charles gives them an edge to their running game they previously lacked. Look for Kansas City to win a close game that certainly could go the other way. Take Chiefs.

Houston at St-Louis (+9.5)

Last week: Texans beat Seahawks 34-7; Rams lost to Titans 47-7.

QB Matt Schaub is overlooked in the AFC but is an emerging quarterback. If the Texans are on their game, they could light up the St. Louis defense. The Rams are coming off one of their worst drubbings in franchise history and the frustration is knee deep at Rams Park.

Adding to the woes was the decision to release RG Richie Incognito, who despite his knucklehead moments was a good run blocker and a physical presence. Have the Rams reached the breaking point, and just given in to what has been a disastrous year? Take Texans.

 Oakland at Denver (-12.5

Last week: Raiders lost to Redskins 34-13; Broncos lost to Colts 28-16.

The first meeting was no contest. The Broncos were the more physical team and dominated the Raiders on both sides of the ball. Oakland won't want a repeat of that blowout, but the Raiders also aren't good enough to beat a Broncos team that is motivated by a playoff race and does a good job not playing down to its competition.

Denver's running game should be able to move the chains all game, as it did the first time the teams played, and Oakland's uncertainty at quarterback will bog down the offense and ruin the Raiders' chances of keeping pace. Take Broncos.

Tampa Bay at Seattle (-6.5)

Last week: Buccaneers lost to Jets 26-3; Seahawks lost to Texans 34-7.

Seattle has had its share of problems, but beating up on the league's less fortunate teams hasn't been one of them. Three of its five victories have come against the Rams (two) and the Lions.

The Buccaneers have not scored a touchdown in their past nine quarters, and they have not had a rushing touchdown since Nov. 15. Seattle has shut out two of its six opponents at home this season, and Tampa Bay very well could be the third. Take Seahawks.

Minnesota at Carolina (+7.5)

Last week: Vikings beat Bengals 30-10; Panthers lost to Patriots 20-10.

Under ordinary circumstances, this would have been a fascinating game to watch, as an outdoor winter game would have been a good barometer of how Brett Favre might play in the postseason. But right now, the Panthers' run defense is a mess, meaning Adrian Peterson and Chester Taylor could end up having huge days.

That will take most of the pressure off Favre from having to make too many plays. Coupled with the Vikings' aggressive defense teeing off against a Panthers' offense that can barely make sweat at the moment, this one has the potential to get ugly in a hurry. Take Vikings.

 

 

 

By: Aengus Moorehead @ 21:43 | Category: Football  | Comments: 0 | Permalink

Week 14

December 9 2009 @ 19:39

Greetings Lasses and Lads.

My upset of the week: Chargers (+2.5) at Cowboys.

My no-brainer of the week: Packers (-2.5) at Bears.

My record against the spread:

Last week: 7-9.

Season: 96-96.

 

Pittsburgh at Cleveland (+9.5)

Last week: Steelers lost to Raiders 27-24; Browns lost to Chargers 30-23.

The Steelers are living on the edge. They have been there before, but seldom this close to falling so soon. At 6-6, with more daunting games against the Packers and Ravens up next, they can't even count on getting in if they win out. They can probably count on winning at Cleveland, but even that wasn't easy the last time they were there, winning 10-6 in 2008.

The Steelers are loaded with veterans known for clutch performances, and their persona always makes them a team that warms up to cold weather. Yet, their most important player on defense, Troy Polamalu, likely won't play.

Pittsburgh won four of its past five last year after a mid-season lull. In their other recent Super Bowl season, 2005, they won their last four games on the heels of a three-game losing streak.

The Browns are playing for the satisfaction of wrecking their arch-rival's postseason hopes. It would be quite a shock, since they have not stood in the way while the Steelers have reached the postseason in four of the past five years.

In October, Ben Roethlisberger  passed for 417 yards against Cleveland in a win that was way more one-sided that the 27-14 final score. But, Roethlisberger doesn't always have the last laugh against Cleveland. He was carted off the field with a concussion late in the first half of last year's regular-season finale. It was the scariest moment of his career. It didn't seem to bother him the next time he faced Cleveland and made a shaky secondary look miserable.

This could be one of the weirdest stadium scenes the NFL has witnessed. The Steelers always have plenty of their own fans at road games, but in this case, there is a great chance it will be a solid majority. Numerous Browns fans have long since dropped tickets onto the re-sale market, finding few interested buyers among their own.

Steeler fans have flocked to cheap tickets to a game at Cleveland. The Browns have lost 12 straight to the Steelers, and 18 of the past 19. The scene might resemble a Christmas Eve, 2005 game at Cleveland when about 30 percent of the crowd was in yellow and black at kickoff, changing to 99 percent by the end of a blowout.

Injuries have depleted the Browns at linebacker and in the secondary, and they don't seem to have anybody who can cover the middle of the field. Chargers TE Antonio Gates had a career-high 167 receiving yards against them on Sunday, so the Steelers need to get TE Heath Miller, who has just two catches the past two games, more involved.

After allowing four kick returns for touchdowns in five games, the Steelers have not allowed any in their past two. But the returner this time is Joshua Cribbs, who had a 98-yard scoring return against them in the first meeting. Teams have been kicking away from Cribbs, but he had a 42 and 31-yard return against the Chargers.

Brady Quinn is in his third year with the Browns, but this will be his first game against the team's rival. His poise will be tested against a defense that has rattled other Cleveland quarterbacks. Quinn will have to keep functioning after taking some hits, which everyone knows are coming; few hit harder than OLB James Harrison. Quinn's struggles this year are owed largely to waiting a bit too long to make a decision and then throwing too cautiously when he does. He must be tough, decisive and spontaneous to have any shot against the Steelers.

Cleveland Defensive Coordinator Rob Ryan tried to do too much to get pressure on Roethlisberger in the Oct. 18 game. The result left players who hadn't yet grasped his system — or lacked the tools to execute certain calls — out of position. Roethlisberger, Santonio Holmes, Hines Ward and Heath Miller ate the coverage alive. Now, Ryan and his players have a better grasp of each other, but injuries have forced assorted position moves, and big plays were a problem Sunday against the Chargers. Ryan is good at timing blitzes and disguising coverages in ways that can give even experienced QBs trouble. The trick is to do that on a consistent basis. Ryan has little choice but to err on the side of taking too many gambles rather than not enough. Given the Browns' diluted personnel, Roethlisberger would destroy a vanilla scheme.

Round 2 draft pick WR Brian Robiskie looked lost for two months and then wasn't even dressing on game days. He came out of the blue with a crisp four-catch game against San Diego. Tall, skinny tight end Evan Moore was a Packer castoff who was making his Browns' debut against San Diego. He made a few acrobatic hands catches that made everyone wonder where the heck he has been. He had six catches in all. Running back Jerome Harrison came out of the doghouse to look like a decent replacement for injured feature back Jamal Lewis. And Quinn followed up a bad game at Cincinnati with a fairly impressive one against San Diego. If they can build on that, the Browns have a shot.

It's the strangest thing. The Steelers have lapsed into panic mode, talking about line-up changes and injury woes amid a four-game losing streak. The Browns are a 1-11 team acting as if a 30-23 loss to San Diego was a sure sign they are on the verge of a breakthrough. If the Steelers are without Polamalu and follow through on talk about starting two rookie cornerbacks, Quinn has a chance. He has been shut down by teams with experienced cover men, but his confidence seems to go way up when he senses his receivers have a chance to be open.

The loss to Oakland was a bit of a mirage, in that the Steelers were in scoring range all day, uncharacteristically blowing chances at touchdowns. Steeler’s coach Mike Tomlin's job isn't in trouble the way Eric Mangini's is, but Tomlin is acting as if he is under as much pressure as Mangini. Pittsburgh's iron-willed persona seems to have cracked in the process. Even at that, Cleveland's offensive arsenal doesn't compare to Pittsburgh's. Cleveland's defense has given up big plays all year and will get hit enough to make it hurt again. Take Steelers.

Denver at Indianapolis (-6.5)

Last week: Broncos beat Chiefs 44-13; Colts beat Titans 27-17.

Neither sideline will be lacking playoff motivation. With a win, the Colts clinch the No. 1 seed and home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. With an upset, the 8-4 Broncos keep the pressure on 9-3 San Diego in the race for the AFC West lead.  

Along with securing the top seed for the third time since 1999, the Colts can break New England's all-time league record for consecutive regular-season victories with a 22nd straight and surpass the San Francisco 49ers, who had 113 wins from 1990-99, as the league's winningest team in any decade.

The game might feature two of the more undersized and somewhat unheralded pass-rush threats. That would be the Colts' Robert Mathis, a 6-2, 245-pounder who ranks second on the team with 9.5 sacks, the Broncos' Elvis Dumervil, a 5-11, 260-pounder who leads the league with 15 sacks.

On the sideline, the Colts' Jim Caldwell (12-0) and the Broncos' Josh McDaniel (8-4) have combined for the most wins in league history by rookie coaches who have met during the regular season.

QB Kyle Orton is coming off an unusual game for him, in which he turned the ball over three times, including an ill-advised pass back to the middle of the field in the red zone. If the Broncos want to upset the Colts, Orton must be very careful with the ball, while picking his spots to throw downfield. Indianapolis has racked up 14 interceptions.

When the Colts get the lead, they can let ends Dwight Freeney and Mathis loose. If the Broncos do fall behind, their tackles need to be at their best. Ryan Clady hasn't been as dominant he was last year, and Tyler Polumbus is in line to make his fifth career start because of Ryan Harris' toe injury. If the Broncos need to help the tackles, they won't be able to use spread formations as effectively.

The Broncos have done an admirable job not allowing deep passes, but Peyton Manning can wear a defense out underneath. This isn't the week for the Broncos to sit back. Players like cornerback Champ Bailey and Andre Goodman have to be aggressive and make a big play or two that could swing the game in Denver's favor.

Orton has proven to be just what coach Josh McDaniel wanted when he acquired him in an offseason trade that sent Jay Cutler to the Bears. He's a good decision-maker and takes care of the football. The Colts' defense is at its best when Freeney and Mathis apply the pressure and the back seven come up with takeaways. If the Manning-led offense can establish an early lead, Orton might have to get away from a No. 9-ranked running game and do more than he's capable of in order to keep up.

Four-time Pro Bowl receiver Reggie Wayne remains one of the league's premier players at his position, but he's been relatively quiet of late. He has just seven receptions for 67 yards the past two games. Defenses are bracketing Wayne with a cornerback and safety, forcing Manning to look elsewhere. Look for offensive coordinator Tom Moore to counter that by moving Wayne around in the formation. The other receivers are picking up the slack for Wayne, but he needs to be a bigger contributor.

Manning continues to be the driving force behind the offense. He leads the league in yards (3,685) and completion percentage (70 percent) and has 25 touchdowns for a league-record 12th straight season. But the offense has shown balance recently behind RB Joseph Addai. That needs to continue. Addai hasn't put up gaudy numbers and he's averaging 63.8 yards over the past six games,  but he's gotten the tough yards and kept the chains moving. As long as Addai rushes for 65-70 yards per game and averages 4 yards per attempt, the offense is difficult to deal with.

So much is within reach for the Colts on Sunday. Clinching the No. 1 seed, a league-record 22nd regular-season win, a second 13-0 start in the past five seasons. Denver has a lot to play for, but Coach Jim Caldwell has done an outstanding job of keeping his team motivated and focused.

That won't change Sunday. Look for the Manning-led offense to make enough plays against the Broncos' No. 3-ranked scoring defense and the Freeney-led defense to put sufficient pressure on Orton. Take Colts.

Cincinnati at Minnesota (-6.5)

Last week: Bengals beat Lions 23-13; Vikings lost to Cardinals 30-17.

The Vikings and Bengals each have an opportunity to clinch a division championship Sunday. For the Vikings, winning the NFC North seemed like a formality for several weeks. But after being humbled by Arizona in a 30-17 loss Sunday that wasn't as close as the final score, Minnesota needs to get back on track.

The Vikings played their worst game of the season in all three phases. The special teams gave up a 64-yard punt return that set up a touchdown. The Vikings' vaunted defensive line couldn't pressure Kurt Warner, Brett Favre threw two interceptions and Adrian Peterson was stuffed.

The challenge for the 10-2 Vikings is to rebound against a physical Bengals team (9-3) that would clinch the AFC North with a win. The Vikings would clinch the NFC North with a win and a Green Bay loss.

The Bengals have a strong defense and have controlled games on the ground, but have been inconsistent recently. They lost 20-17 at Oakland three weeks ago and mustered just 16 points in a win over Cleveland. They're coming off a 23-13 win against Detroit, which isn't exactly something to celebrate.

The Bengals will play without their best run defender, defensive tackle Domata Peko, who on Monday had arthroscopic surgery on his right knee. Cincinnati ranks No. 2 against the run.

 To beat the Vikings, who are coming off a disappointing performance at Green Bay, and join the playoffs, they must be focused and play a complete game. Considering three different players (Bernard Scott, Larry Johnson and Cedric Benson) have rushed for more than 100 yards the past three weeks, the team has proved it can run the ball. The goal now is to elevate the passing game and get it on par with the rushing attack. After all, one-dimensional teams get exposed come playoff time.

With his strength, speed and incredible cutback ability, Adrian Peterson is a threat to score every time he touches the ball. It is critical for the front seven to provide gap control and get good spacing. The line must anchor at the point of attack, with the linebackers filling the gaps and patrolling the cutback lanes. The Bengals don't want Peterson to beat them. They'll take their chances with quarterback Brett Favre. Containing Peterson and pressuring Favre are critical ingredients for a Cincinnati win.

The Bengals rely on their ground game to control the clock and carry the offense, which has had trouble establishing the passing game. Running back Cedric Benson has had five games with at least 25 carries. The Vikings rank No. 3 against the run, essentially because teams have fallen behind and been forced to throw. This will be a true test for defensive tackles Pat Williams and Kevin Williams.

The loss of Viking middle linebacker E.J. Henderson to a broken leg won't be easy to overcome because he was a team leader and was playing his best football of the season in recent weeks. He was a key factor in the run defense, often chasing down running backs near the line of scrimmage. Rookie Jasper Brinkley replaces Henderson in the starting lineup. Brinkley is big (6-1, 252), hits hard and plays the run well.

The Vikings didn't make a commitment to running the ball against Arizona. They came out passing and never established Adrian Peterson, who finished with 13 carries for 19 yards. Even if he's getting stuffed, Peterson needs to carry the ball more than 13 times. The Vikings' line needs to match Cincinnati's physical play on defense and get Peterson going in this game.

Despite their impressive records, Cincinnati and Minnesota have something to prove. The Vikings, embarrassed on prime-time TV Sunday night at Arizona, have feasted on teams with poor records, with losses coming against Arizona and Pittsburgh.

If they play well and defeat Cincinnati, it would go a long way toward proving the Arizona game was merely a one-game setback and not a sign of bigger problems. The Bengals want to prove they are a legitimate Super Bowl threat and play power football against the Vikings, who led the NFL in run defense the past three years. Take points and Bengals.

San Diego at Dallas (-2.5)

Last week: Chargers beat Browns 30-23; Cowboys lost to Giants 31-24.

Chargers coach Norv Turner, who won a Super Bowl ring in the '90s as the Cowboys' offensive coordinator, is the guy Jerry Jones passed over to hire Wade Phillips. Now, Turner can put a significant dent in the Cowboys' playoff hopes, while inching his own team closer to a home playoff game and the No. 2 seed in the AFC. It doesn't really get any better than that.

Unless, of course, you consider Turner's team plays its best football in December when the games matter most, while the Cowboys have a history of faltering after Thanksgiving Day. Consider: Turner is 10-0 after Dec. 1 and has won at least one playoff game each of the past two seasons. He took San Diego to the AFC championship game in the 2007 campaign. Phillips' Cowboys, on the other hand, are 3-6 after Dec. 1 and lost their only playoff game. They became the first No. 1 seed in the NFC to lose in the divisional round since the current playoff format was established in 1996.

This is all relevant because the Cowboys, who lost to the Giants last week, need to beat the Chargers and end the discussion about their inability to win in December. Last year, the Cowboys entered the month 8-4, just like this year, but went 1-3 and missed the playoffs.

The problem is that San Diego has won seven consecutive games and is one of the hottest teams in the league. If not for the undefeated Saints and Colts, much of the national attention would be focused on the Chargers.

No team has ever hoped to fall behind or start slowly, but doing so in mammoth Cowboys Stadium will make for a difficult day against Dallas' strong pass rush. The Chargers have led at least 7-0 in all but one game during their winning streak; consequently, San Diego's offense has been balanced and its defense has been able to play aggressively.

Getting to Tony Romo will be a arduous task for the Chargers which have left a lot of sacks on the field the past few weeks; their aggressive pass rushers have struggled with angles and in bringing down mobile quarterbacks. San Diego needs to rough up Romo and force him to get rid of the ball early.

Cowboys backs Marion Barber, Felix Jones and Tashard Choice each average at least 4.4 yards a carry, and they advance the ball in different ways. The Chargers have been much better against the run during their winning streak, but their defensive line is banged up and outside linebacker Shawne Merriman (foot) may not play. Add in a young secondary, and it's possible San Diego may not be able to stop the Cowboys on the ground.

Marion Barber is the hammer and the guy who gives the Cowboys an emotional boost. Tashard Choice is the steady backup and the Wildcat quarterback. Felix Jones is the guy who gives the running game juice. He has the speed and moves to create a big play every time he touches the ball. But the Cowboys haven't been able to get him untracked since he missed several weeks with a sprained knee. He had a 46-yard touchdown run on Thanksgiving Day against Oakland, but that has been the exception. He has just one run of more than 19 yards in the past six games. He had one at least that long in each of his first three games.

The Cowboys gave up a 74-yard touchdown pass last week to lumbering 265-pound back Brandon Jacobs. Chargers running backs LaDainian Tomlinson and Darren Soles are considerably more dangerous. The Chargers love to use L.T. on circle routes in the middle of the field and get him matched up on linebackers. Sproles is averaging 11.5 yards on 39 catches and has three touchdowns. The Chargers just want him to get the ball in space whether it's on screens or in the flat.

Some players, such as Bradie James, Jason Witten and Terence Newman, dwell on the Cowboys' December failures. They talk about the importance of having a breakthrough game so they don't have to discuss the issue anymore. Coach Wade Phillips and Tony Romo prefer to act as if the Cowboys' struggles in December are no big deal. Dallas can't get swept up in a feeling of "here we go again" if it has a bad play, or a bad series, or a bad half against the Chargers.

The Cowboys do not want a two-game losing streak going into their road trip against New Orleans next week because a potential three-game losing streak would be devastating. They will play with as much desperation as they have displayed in any game this season. The problem is San Diego, one of the league's best teams, can run it and throw it. Take Chargers.

Philadelphia at NY Giants (-1.5)

Last week: Eagles beat Falcons 34-7; Giants beat Cowboys 31-24.

How about a battle for first place as a reason to watch?

These late-season Giants-Eagles games always seem to have high stakes and this one is no exception. The Eagles and Cowboys (both 8-4) have a one-game lead on the Giants (7-5) and the Eagles are looking for a two-game season series sweep and their fourth consecutive victory over the Giants. Included in a five-game losing streak by the Giants was a 40-17 loss in Philadelphia, a rare blowout in a rivalry that is usually hotly contested.

No team has been affected by the greater awareness and concern about concussions than the Eagles. RB Brian Westbrook has missed the past three games and WR DeSean Jackson missed last week's game, both because of concussions.

Neither has been ruled out of this game. The return of one or both would be an instant spark. Westbrook did not play in the first meeting with the Giants and the Eagles didn't miss him, rushing for 180 yards. Jackson was a factor though, hauling in a 54-yard touchdown pass.

Donovan McNabb is often at his best late in the season, as the Eagles are 12-3 in December since 2006. The cold and possibly harsh weather conditions do not seem to bother McNabb, who is usually able to strong-arm the ball through the breeze.

The same cannot be said about Eli Manning, who has endured his share of problems in bad weather late in the season. The winds at Giants Stadium are notorious and this is most likely the last time these rivals will play in that building, which is set to close following this season.

 McNabb, who passed for 240 yards and three touchdowns in the Eagles' earlier win against the Giants, should have another field day against New York's struggling secondary. The Giants have allowed an average of 298 passing yards per game in its past three games and opponents are converting just under 50 percent of third downs against them. With DeSean Jackson expected to return from a concussion, the Eagles must make the vertical game a priority.

The Giants sacked McNabb twice in the first game, but for the most part McNabb had plenty of time to make his progressions and hit targets in stride. He tossed touchdowns of 54 yards and 23 yards mainly because left tackle Jason Peters and right tackle Winston Justice kept the Giants' star-studded pass rushers off McNabb's back. The Giants got an effective rush against Dallas by standing up his pass rushers to confuse the Cowboys' offensive line. The Eagles need to be ready for whatever tricks come from Giants coordinator Bill Sheridan's bag this game.

To feel comfortable, the Eagles need K David Akers to get over his Giants Stadium hex. He's made just four of his last eight kicks there and had his two blocked last year there. The swirling winds around the Meadowlands seem to play mind tricks with Akers, who usually has the distance there but not the accuracy. Also, the Eagles need better kickoff coverage against Giants KR Domenik Hixon, the reigning NFC special teams player of the week. The Eagles have rolled out the red carpet for returners this year. They're allowing 24.4 yards per return.

Even though the Giants allowed a career-high 392 passing yards and three touchdown passes by Tony Romo, they were able to survive the onslaught because they made the Cowboys one-dimensional, limiting Dallas to a season-low 45 rushing yards. The Giants' run defense has become more athletic with the insertion of DE Mathias Kiwanuka and LB Jonathan Goff, helping the gang-tackling approach that is needed.

Dealing with opposing tight ends hasn't been easy for the Giants, who have difficulty with their coverage down the field whether they put a linebacker or a cornerback on a quality pass-catcher. The Giants are coming off a 31-24 victory over the Cowboys but their work against Jason Witten wasn't the reason why. Witten was really never stopped as he caught 14 passes for 156 yards, mostly against LB Michael Boley. The Eagles' Brent Celek leads his team in receptions and, while not as dynamic as Witten, is a sure-handed target who will be targeted by Donovan McNabb on third down.

Despite their victory, the Giants failed to truly establish a punishing ground game against the Cowboys, as the best moment for Brandon Jacobs came on a 74-yard catch-and-run. Historically the Giants have had some success running on the Eagles by timing up the blitz and running into the vacated areas. Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw — who ran well vs. Dallas even though he was coming off two sprained ankles — must get to the second line of the Philadelphia defense and then make sharp cuts to turn modest gains into larger ones.

Until proven otherwise, the Eagles own this rivalry for the time being, as they have been the tougher and more resilient team in winning the past three games. They certainly are not intimidated by the hostile surroundings and are getting healthier at the right time.

The Giants have tried and failed to build momentum from a victory and they remain susceptible in coverage even with their revamped defense. Eli Manning has not played especially well the past two games and his offensive line is not what it once was, and now RG Chris Snee is dealing with a knee issue. Take Eagles.

New Orleans at Atlanta (+9.5)

Last week: Saints beat Redskins 33-30; Falcons lost to Eagles 34-7.

 

With Matt Ryan’s turf toe possibly holding him out for the rest of the season, the Falcons are close to throwing in the towel. A single loss would derail their postseason hopes. Saints coach Sean Payton made headlines Monday when he admitted that the Saints are going for the perfect season even if they clinch home-field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs.

After Coach Payton’s declaration, it seems the Saints won’t look past any opponent down the stretch. Their huge scare against Washington should jolt them awake and they now face a much weaker defense at a cozy indoor stadium. Expect the Saints to light up the Falcons and cover the spread. Take Saints.

Detroit at Baltimore (-12.5)

Last week: Lions lost to Bengals 23-13; Ravens lost to Packers 27-14.

The Ravens have had their share of problems this season, but nothing like Detroit, a perennially-losing bunch that also has a lot of injuries. The Lions might hit a couple of big plays, but the Ravens still have too many horses for Detroit.

This will be a decent game until midway through the third quarter, when the Ravens take control with a dominating running game. Take Ravens.

Green Bay at Chicago (+2.5)

Last week: Packers beat Ravens 27-14; Bears beat Rams 17-9.

The Packers have stepped up during the second half of the season while the Bears have slid on both sides of the ball. Chicago doesn't have a victory over a team with a winning record. It's the time of year when the better teams step up and the pretenders fade away.

Aaron Rodgers should have plenty of time to shred the Bears' secondary. In the fourth quarter, expect RB Ryan Grant to kill the clock by running stretch plays and weakside draws straight through the Bears' defense. Take Packers.

Seattle at Houston (-5.5)

Last week: Seahawks beat 49ers 20-17; Texans lost to Jaguars 23-18.

The Texans can't afford a fifth consecutive loss. They figure to play another close game, but they must come out on top. The running game won't figure into a victory because it's too inconsistent and nonproductive.

QB Matt Schaub and his receivers will have to stake the Texans to a win, and the defense will have to hold it. Take points and Seahawks.

Miami at Jacksonville (-2.5)

Last week: Dolphins beat Patriots 22-21; Jaguars beat Texans 23-18.

With resilient hard-nosed teams who are hungry for playoff berths clashing, you can expect a physical contest.

The Jaguars feature tons of diversity defensively, and keep opponents guessing with their ability to execute consistently out of both the 4-3 and 3-4 fronts. Miami, meanwhile, offers a plethora of offensive looks ranging from I-formation to its trademark wildcat look. Such conditions make for an interesting chess match between the teams.

At the end of the day, physicality and the field-position battle will win out. Because Miami running back Ricky Williams is banged up, look for the Jags to shut down the rushing attack, forcing the club to throw more than usual. If that's the case, the key for Jacksonville's up-and-down pass rush is to get to young QB Chad Henne to take pressure off its secondary.

One or two key plays on special teams will likely decide this contest. Look for the Jags to edge the Dolphins in a close contest, thus improving their home win streak to six in a row. Take Jaguars.

Buffalo at Kansas City (PK)

Last week: Bills lost to Jets 19-13; Chiefs lost to Broncos 44-13.

The Chiefs have been blown out in many games this season but almost always against playoff contenders. The 4-7 Bills don't qualify, so Sunday's game could be a competitive one. Each team is having problems offensively, so the game may not feature many big plays.

Turnovers will probably decide the matter. The Chiefs in recent games have been the team prone to turnovers while the Bills are among the league leaders in takeaways. So if the game follows that form, look for Buffalo to win a close one. Take Bills.

Carolina at New England (-13.5)

Last week: Panthers beat Buccaneers 16-6; Patriots lost to Dolphins 22-21.

Just like so many late-season games, this one is critical for both teams. The Panthers have their last opportunity to put together a run toward the playoffs. At 5-7, they need every one of them. And a victory over the Patriots -- reeling or not -- would be huge for confidence.

As for the Pats, they must not only perform a miraculous fix on an ailing defense, they must also get the offense and Tom Brady clicking again. Oh, and coach Bill Belichick's team has to hold onto its slim AFC East lead. And they will, though it may be more interesting than they want. Nevertheless, take Patriots to cover.

NY Jets at Tampa Bay (+3.5)

Last week: Jets beat Bills 19-13; Buccaneers lost to Panthers 16-6.

Expect nothing less than ugly football at Raymond James Stadium on Sunday. We’ll see turnovers galore from Tampa and probably a massive performance from RB Thomas Jones.

 Don’t expect a bounce-back effort from QB Josh Freeman, whose confidence is likely rattled. Pick the Jets and watch Darrelle Revis bolster his defensive MVP campaign with at least one interception. Take Jets.

St-Louis at Tennessee (-12.5)

Last week: Rams lost to Bears 17-9; Titans lost to Colts 27-17.

The Titans have flickering playoff hopes, while the Rams are playing out the string at this point. The Titans have more talent than the Rams, and RB Chris Johnson has a chance to record his second 200-yard game of the season in this one.

With Johnson and a stingy defense leading the way, the Titans take care of the Rams at LP Field and stay in contention for another week. The Rams might make it interesting early, but are knocked out in the second half. Take Titans.

Washington at Oakland (+1.5)

Last week: Redskins lost to Saints 33-30; Raiders beat Steelers 27-24.

The Raiders have yet to follow up an impressive win with another victory the past seven seasons, including twice this season. However, they are as confident as they have been all season and certain that they are ready to clear the next hurdle to turning around their fortunes.

 The Raiders will keep in extra blockers and roll out QB Bruce Gradkowski on most passing downs in an attempt to neutralize Albert Haynesworth. The Raiders won't have any difficulty clamping down on receivers Santana Moss and Antwaan Randle El with CB Nnamdi Asomugha and Chris Johnson.

This is a game the Raiders feel as if they can win, and they will because they know too much is riding upon it for them to have another letdown after a big victory. Take Raiders.

Arizona at San Francisco (+2.5)

Last week: Cardinals beat Vikings 30-17; 49ers lost to Seahawks 20-17.

Monday's game won't have the playoff implications ESPN was hoping for just one week ago, but prime time games between the 49ers and Cardinals recently have been close, exciting affairs. The 49ers nearly pulled an upset last year in Glendale only to fall short on the game's last play.

Although San Francisco has been all but eliminated from the postseason hunt, look for Mike Singletary to have his team fired up for national television.

The 49ers have tried to avoid shootouts with Kurt Warner and his cast of quality receivers in the past. This time, however, they have an offense that can at least keep pace. Look for the Cardinals to eke out another wild one. Take Cardinals.

 

 

 

 

 

 

By: Aengus Moorehead @ 19:39 | Category: Football  | Comments: 0 | Permalink

Week 13

December 2 2009 @ 20:14

Greetings Lasses and Lads.

My upset of the week: Buccaneers (+6.5) at Panthers.

My no-brainer of the week: Cowboys (-2.5) at Giants.

My record against the spread:

Last week: 7-9.

Season: 89-87.

NY Jets at Buffalo (+2.5)

Last week: Jets beat Panthers 17-6; Bills beat Dolphins 31-14.

Two teams with losing records will go at it in snoozing Toronto – why doesn’t the NFL schedules  these games in Montreal is beyond me - on Thursday night. But just because it's the Bills (4-7) and Jets (5-6) doesn't mean there isn't some intrigue to this north-of-the-boredom showdown of AFC East rivals.

Among the tasty story lines will be the much-anticipated matchup between Bills wide receiver Terrell Owens and Jets cornerback Darrelle Revis. Both are supremely confident and talented players who will try to impose their will and skill on each other.

There will be plenty of focus on the quarterbacks. The Bills feel a late-season turnaround is in the offing with Ryan Fitzpatrick leading the offense. His play as a passer and runner has made a huge difference since taking over for the ineffective Trent Edwards. The Jets' thin playoff hopes rest on the shoulders of rookie Mark Sanchez, who has experienced all the ups and downs of a first-year signal caller but flashes elite skills that give him a chance to be special down the road.

This game also will feature a rematch of the Bills' run defense and Jets running back Thomas Jones, who ran for a franchise-record 210 yards against Buffalo in the last meeting.

And of course, there is the interesting coaching matchup between Bills' interim head man Perry Fewell and the Jets' first-year leader Rex Ryan. Both are colorful characters who have wasted little time putting their stamp on these teams.

The Jets' new color-coding system to remind Mark Sanchez of game situations worked well against punchless Carolina, but it remains to be seen how it will fare against other teams. However, the Jets rushed for a whopping 318 yards against Buffalo in the last meeting, so Sanchez may not have to do much. Keep in mind, though, that change-of-pace running back Leon Washington chipped in 99 yards on the ground that day, and he is now on injured reserve.

Terrell Owens has come to life in the first two games under interim coach Perry Fewell, with 14 receptions for 293 yards and two TDs. While Fewell says there has been no special emphasis in the game plan on targeting Owens, the Bills seem to be taking more downfield shots to him than they were under the deposed Dick Jauron. The Jets are expecting yet another lockdown performance by CB Darrelle Revis.

In Buffalo's first regular-season game in Toronto last year, Miami dominated the Bills in a 16-3 win at Rogers Centre in which the struggling Bills seemed to have very little crowd support. It could be more of the same Thursday if the Jets can grab the early lead, much like they did in their last road victory when they blanked woeful Oakland on Oct. 25.

The Bills couldn't stop the Jets' running back in the first meeting as he accounted for 210 of the Jets' 318 rushing yards. The Bills have allowed seven 100-yard rushers, but are playing much better against the run. If the Bills limit Jones, the Jets will have to move the ball through the air, which is not always a good thing for them.

The Bills won the earlier meeting in the Meadowlands despite giving up 300-plus rushing yards because they intercepted Sanchez five times. Many of the picks were gift-wrapped as Sanchez threw right at Bills defenders. Sanchez was more efficient last week, but he still is prone to making negative plays. Look for the Bills to bring pressure and disguise coverages to try to confuse and frustrate the rookie.

The Bills had a nice mixture of run and pass in last week's win over Miami. Fewelll gave running back Fred Jackson a start, and Jackson responded with 116 yards from scrimmage (73 rushing). He gives the Bills more versatility in the run and pass games than does Marshawn Lynch. Fitzpatrick has a good feel for reading defenses and is willing to take shots downfield. That makes Owens and fellow receiver Lee Evans very happy. The Jets will bring blitzes because of their faith in cornerbacks Revis and Lito Sheppard. But Fitzpatrick is poised against pressure and he's a threat to run when the pocket breaks down.

This is a must-win for the Jets, who squandered a 3-0 start and likely will need to run the table just to get a whiff of the playoffs. They are coming off perhaps their best defensive performance of the season, holding Carolina under 180 total yards.

The key Thursday will be how Sanchez plays. He does fine when he takes what the defense gives him, but he forces throws too often and that will play into the Bills' hands again. Believe it or not, the Bills aren't mathematically eliminated from the playoffs. But their first priority is trying to build momentum one win at a time.

Their makeshift offensive line will have to keep Jets' blitz-happy defenders off Fitzpatrick and Jackson to have a chance to move the ball. The defense has been opportunistic all season. If the Bills can stop the run and make the Jets throw more, they will win the turnover battle and the game, but not in Toronto. Take Jets.

Philadelphia at Atlanta (+4.5)

Last week: Eagles beat Redskins 27-24; Falcons beat Buccaneers 20-17.

Chris Redman will start at quarterback for the Falcons replacing Matt Ryan, who's out with turf toe. Redman had not thrown a pass in a regular-season game since the end of the tumultuous 2007 season. He last played in a meaningful regular season game back in 2002.

He was solid last week, completing 23 of 41 passes for 243 yards and two touchdowns, including a game-winning touchdown pass with 23 seconds left to beat the Bucs 20-17. He hopes to have better timing with his wideouts after getting the first-team reps in practice.

Of the eight NFC teams above .500, the Falcons have the second-easiest path to the playoffs, but that won't mean much if they can't beat the Eagles, who have a game lead and would take the coveted head-to-head tiebreaker advantage with a victory. The Falcons made the playoffs last season as a wild-card with an 11-5 record. They would have to win out to match last season's mark.

The Eagles' Wildcat quarterback Michael Vick returns to the city where his NFL career started. Even though he won't likely play much, he will have support in the stands. Vick guided the Falcons to the NFC Championship game after the 2005 season and still has strong support in pockets of the city despite his conviction on federal dog fighting charges. The Falcons don't want to roll out the red carpet for his return.

 Redman, who will be making just his 11th start in the NFL, is likely to get a heavy dose of blitzing from the Eagles. He will have to know where his hot receivers are and shoot the ball out to them. He had some timing issues with the wide receivers when he came on in relief against Tampa Bay last week, but didn't have any issues with finding tight end Tony Gonzalez four times during a game-winning touchdown drive.

Redman makes his first start in nearly two years for Atlanta, but Redman has never played against the Eagles and their blitz-heavy defense. The Eagles need to mix up their blitzes and disguise coverages to pressure Redman into making errant throws. They can't let him get comfortable in the pocket.

The Eagles needed a fourth-quarter comeback to beat a depleted Redskins team that had five Pro Bowlers sidelined. Now they face an Atlanta offense without Ryan and hampered by injuries to RB Michael Turner and on the offensive line. They can't play to an inferior level, commit penalties and miss tackles all over the field like they did against the Redskins. They need to play with supreme confidence, get an early lead and drop the hammer when given the chance.

Indeed they have relied too much on David Akers' field goals instead of finishing off drives deep in their opponents' territory. It starts with protecting Donovan McNabb, eliminating penalties and using all resources. Backup tight end Alex Smith can be an effective pass-catching weapon at the goal line if given more opportunities. Vick is another untapped resource who's bursting at the seams to score his first touchdown.

The Eagles' speedy receiver DeSean Jackson has a concussion issue, but if he recovers in time to play, he will cause the Falcons' secondary major problems. The Falcons give up 252.6 passing yards (27th) a game and will start rookie Christopher Owens at left cornerback. He became the fourth player to make a start at the position last week against Tampa Bay.

The Falcons' rushing attack has been slowed down by injuries to Michael Turner and Jerious Norwood. Turner re-injured his high right ankle sprain and will not be 100 percent if he plays. Norwood, who has missed six games, showed some flashes in his first game back last week, including a 22-yard touchdown on a shovel pass. Jason Snelling is a plugger and runs hard between the tackles.

When a backup quarterback is facing a starting quarterback, especially one of Donovan McNabb's stature, it's wise to go with the starter. You just figure the starter will make more plays than the backup. McNabb and the Eagles start their December push to the playoffs by handing the Falcons their first home loss of the season. Take Eagles.

Tennessee at Indianapolis (-6.5)

Last week: Titans beat Cardinals 20-17; Colts beat Texans 35-27.

A pair of streaking teams collides at Lucas Oil Stadium. The unbeaten Colts can tie New England's all-time record with a 21st consecutive regular-season victory. The Titans, who happen to be the last team to beat Indy in the regular season, have won five straight since owner Bud Adams ordered coach Jeff Fisher to replace QB Kerry Collins with Vince Young.

 Tennessee's playoff pulse is faint, but it's there. If they can upset the Colts, their closing schedule is conducive to a 10-6 record: home games against the Rams, Dolphins, Chargers, and a trip to Seattle.

Titans RB Chris Johnson is worth the price of admission. He leads the league with 1,396 yards and is a big play waiting to happen.

The latest installment in the intense rivalry should present a study in offensive opposites. The Colts are riding QB Peyton Manning, who's on pace to throw for 4,900 yards, while the Titans follow the lead of Johnson, who's on pace to run for 2,000. Which team can dictate the game's flow?

Johnson has been on an incredible roll this season, with six straight games with at least 125 yards. If the Titans want to pull the upset in Indianapolis, they must get Johnson cranked up. That will allow them to control the football and the clock, keeping it away from Manning & Co. Johnson, of course, has been known to rip off some long runs that wouldn't allow the Titans to keep the ball for long.

Young has proven he can win games by running and passing. In the process, he's also shown he can play pretty close to mistake-free football, which is what he'll try and do against the Colts. Young has thrown just two interceptions in his five starts this season. He's done a good job protecting the football while making good decisions. Manning is tough enough to stop when he has to go 80. The Titans can't afford to give him a short field with interceptions or turnovers.

Young is coming off a career-best 387-yard passing game against the Arizona Cardinals, but he's still a major threat when he's able to break pocket containment and create plays with his legs. In the past, the Colts have used S Bob Sanders as a "spy" against Young. Sanders is out for the season, but defensive coordinator Larry Coyer still might follow a similar blueprint, perhaps with S Melvin Bullitt. Bullitt has decent size (6-1, 201) and is a physical player.

The Colts have gotten off to an 11-0 start for the second time in five seasons despite dealing with a spate of significant injuries. They appear to be regaining a bit of their health, though, as CB Kelvin Hayden is expected to return after missing four games with a knee injury. Hayden's return likely sends rookie Jacob Lacey back to the bench. Lacey, though, should replace veteran Tim Jennings as the nickel back in passing situations. That strengthens the secondary.

 Peyton Manning had four interceptions in the first seven games. He's had seven in the last four. Enough already. The offense remains one of the league's most prolific, but it can't continue to squander scoring opportunities and giving the opposition good field position. When Manning takes care of the ball, the offense is tough to stop. The Titans are rolling into town, and don't need any assistance.

Slowing down Manning should be more manageable for the Titans this time, although it's never easy against Manning. In a Week 5 matchup, Manning torched the Titans for 309 yards and 3 TDs. But the Titans played that game without All-Pro cornerback Cortland Finnegan and nickelback Vincent Fuller, and cornerback Nick Harper was injured in that contest. Still, Manning has thrown 24 touchdowns this season, so it's tough to stop him no matter who's lined up in the secondary.

On defense for the Colts, the key to that is limit Johnson's touches. In the first meeting October, Johnson had only nine carries and 34 yards. He's the type of running back whose next carry can be an 85-yard touchdown. If the Titans are able to hand off to Johnson 20 times, he's going to have a big day. The Colts' run defense has been solid this season, but it occasionally suffers from sloppy tackling. A missed tackle against Johnson will lead to a gashing play. LBs Clint Session, Gary Brackett and Philip Wheeler must be on top of their game.

Despite injuries to key players and some self-inflicted wounds, the Colts emerged from November with an 11-0 record. They haven't played their best football, but are the type of team to clean up its act on the practice field and transfer it to the playing field. As long as the defense doesn't let Johnson go off -- and that's always a possibility considering his uncanny speed -- the Manning-led offense will prove too potent for Young. Take Colts.

Dallas at NY Giants (+2.5)

Last week: Cowboys beat Raiders 24-7; Giants lost to Broncos 26-6.

There will again be a hole in the middle of the Giants defense, as the Giants now know for certain that they will play the remainder of the season without MLB Antonio Pierce, who missed two games with a bulging disc in his neck before he was placed on injured reserve. Pierce was not only a team captain but he also called all the defensive signals. Although he was not a huge impact player from a physical standpoint he stood out as one of the more mentally sharp players in the league. His backup, Chase Blackburn, is a career backup and spot starter who is considered a stopgap.

It is now December and the Cowboys and Tony Romo are eager to shed their unwanted reputation as late-season failures. They can solidify their hold on first place in the NFC East with a victory and deal a crippling blow to the playoff hopes of the Giants, who have lost five of their last six games. This certainly didn't look like the scenario that would develop back in week 2 of the season, when the Giants opened the brand-new Cowboys Stadium with a last-second 33-31 victory.

In contrast to previous seasons the Giants have not been a dominant defense in stopping the run. No team powered through them more forcefully than the Cowboys, who rushed for 251 yards and three touchdowns back in mid-September. The defensive tackles, Barry Cofield and Fred Robbins, have not done a good job of holding up at the line of scrimmage, forcing too many tackles downfield from linebackers who lack great speed. The Cowboys with Marion Barber, Felix Jones and Tashard Choice have more than enough weapons to thrust upon the Giants vulnerable defensive interior.

Tony Romo has already been sacked 25 times this season, the most he's ever been dropped in his career. Imagine, if he weren't as mobile as he is and that number would be considerably higher. The Cowboys have allowed at least one sack in nine consecutive games, but New York's front seven no longer dominates the NFL. The Giants have only 23 sacks, which ties them with three other clubs for 17th in the NFL. The Giants didn't sack him in the first game and the Cowboys scored 31 points.

The heralded Giants defensive line has been a major disappointment this season, affording opposing quarterbacks too much comfort in the pocket. Now comes Tony Romo, who is more effective when the play breaks down and he must improvise on the move. The Giants did not sack Romo at all in the first meeting, although he completed only 13 passes and threw three interceptions. It is imperative that DE Osi Umenyiora pay attention to his containment responsibilities and keep Romo from wandering too far, as Umenyiora at times gets in trouble because of too much pursuit.

The swirling winds at Giants Stadium can create problems for the league's best kickers let alone a guy like Nick Folk, who's slumping. Folk, who has missed four of his last eight field goal attempts, has made just 15-of-21 kicks this season. In his first two seasons, he missed just seven kicks and gained a reputation for being at his best in the clutch. The Cowboys will have little margin for error this week against the Giants. He is four-of-nine from 40-49 yards this season. In his first two seasons, he was 17 of 18.

The Giants each week pay lip-service to their desire to establish their pounding ground game but they have turned into a pass-first team that has lost its physical identity. RB Brandon Jacobs has yet to register a 100-yard rushing game, the well-regarded offensive line has lost its bite and the entire attack has become too reliant on Eli Manning and his young receivers. The Giants the past few years have had trouble running on the Cowboys and now behind Jacobs they have two banged-up reserve backs, Ahmad Bradshaw (two sprained ankles) and DJ Ware (concussion).

And speaking of their young receivers, the duo of Steve Smith and Mario Manningham combined for 20 catches, 284 yards and two touchdowns in September. They've combined for two 100-yard games since then. The Cowboys' secondary has improved considerably since then as well. Mike Jenkins is playing better than Terence Newman and Orlando Scandrick has been solid in the slot. In the past five games, neither receiver has had more than 80 yards receiving. Hold each of them below 80 yards and the Cowboys should win.

The Giants have taken a "must win" approach into their last three games and come away with only one victory. This is truly their last stand but they are not playing well in any facet of the game. The Cowboys have struggled to score on a consistent basis but are nevertheless on a roll and should be able to move the ball and find the end zone against a struggling Giants defense. Without a reliable running game, the Giants will put too much of a burden on Eli Manning, which will allow LB DeMarcus Ware to unleash his pass rush against LT David Diehl. Take Cowboys.

Minnesota at Arizona (+4.5)

Last week: Vikings beat Bears 36-10; Cardinals lost to Titans 20-17.

Two of the most diverse offenses in the league will be on display. With the addition of quarterback Brett Favre and rookie receiver Percy Harvin, the Vikings passing game is as dangerous as their Adrian Peterson-led running game. The Cardinals have become more diverse, too. Running backs Tim Hightower and Beanie Wells have been productive over the last month. The passing game was already good, and will continue to be provided quarterback Kurt Warner plays.

Favre is healthy, and the Vikings' running game has protected him from taking too many hits. He's making a push for the MVP. Warner is less certain. He didn't play last week because of a concussion suffered the week before. Warner likely will remain questionable all week, and it's possible that Matt Leinart starts his second consecutive game. Leinart played well in his first start of the season last week, but the offense suffers without Warner.

While the Vikings dominated the Cardinals last year, 35-14, in mid-December, the game wasn't as close as the score indicated. The Cardinals were physically beaten up, and the Vikings led, 28-0, at halftime. Peterson rushed for 165 yards, and the Vikings had 239 as a team. The Cardinals offense scored only one touchdown, and quarterback Kurt Warner was sacked four times.

When the Vikings went on the road last year, they held Anquan Boldin and Larry Fitzgerald in check. The star duo combined for 11 catches but just 86 yards and no touchdowns. If Warner isn't able to play, Arizona's receivers should have a tougher time making plays against a Vikings secondary that should be at full strength with Pro Bowl CB Antoine Winfield expected to return from a foot injury.

The Vikings' defense has moved up to No. 2 against the run after getting gashed at times earlier this season. Part of the renewed success is because the Vikings have jumped out to big leads, forcing opponents to throw the ball. Arizona running backs Wells and Hightower form a potent threat in the backfield, so it's up to the Vikings to make sure they don't get going and allow the Cardinals to dictate time of possession.

The Cardinals need to slow the Vikings' pass rush, and a successful running game will keep Minnesota honest. The Cardinals have done a better job of running lately. They can't be one dimensional against Minnesota; if the Cardinals have to throw more than 40 times, they'll be in trouble.

The Cardinals will be motivated in this one, because a loss could reduce their lead in the NFC West to one game. In addition, they were embarrassed by the Vikings last season. But the uncertainty at quarterback is a worry. Warner is still suffering concussion symptoms, and Leinart would be making just his second start since 2007. The Cardinals will need to make plays in the passing game, and Warner's status makes that a huge question mark. Take Vikings.

Tampa Bay at Carolina (-6.5)

Last week: Buccaneers lost to Falcons 20-17; Panthers lost to Jets 17-6.

The Bucs are still playing pesky football, as they hung around against Atlanta last week when Matt Ryan was out. And in terms of emotion, they're probably coming at this one from a better starting point than Carolina. But at the end of the day, the Panthers' ability to run should carry them to a meaningless win — which could be their last of the season, but it will be close. Take Buccaneers.

Houston at Jacksonville (PK)

Last week: Texans lost to Colts 35-27; Jaguars lost to 49ers 20-3.

The Jags lament that they went away from their run-first philosophy in last week's loss to San Francisco. So you can expect to see plenty of Maurice Jones-Drew against a Texans defense that has struggled all year against the run.

Houston, meanwhile, will likely attempt to spread out Jacksonville's defense with four-receiver sets and operate out of the shotgun to exploit Jacksonville's shaky secondary. Whichever team establishes its offensive game plan first will likely set the tone and control the game.

Jacksonville's coaching staff will devise some wrinkles to defend the pass while getting back to its smash-mouth philosophy on offense with Jones-Drew as the centerpiece. Look for a big day from Jones-Drew and receiver Mike Sims-Walker. Matt Schaub will likely have a big game for the Texans, but the Jags will probably bracket Johnson all day to keep him from making a significant impact. Nevertheless, take Texans.

Denver at Kansas City (+4.5)

Last week: Broncos beat Giants 26-6; Chiefs lost to Chargers 43-14.

While the Chiefs may be a slightly improved team from the start of the season, they're still overmatched against a team with a lot of offensive weapons, as they showed in last week's blowout loss against the Chargers.

The Broncos may not be as stocked as San Diego, but between Brandon Marshall, Knowshon Moreno, Correll Buckhalter and Eddie Royal, they still qualify as an offensive team far too deep for the Chiefs to handle. Unless the Chiefs can dominate on special teams or win the turnover battle by a large margin, look for the Broncos pull away. Take Broncos.

St-Louis at Chicago (-8.5)

Last week: Rams lost to Seahawks 27-17; Bears lost to Vikings 36-10.

The Bears no longer have a realistic shot at a playoff berth and have adjusted their goals to something more meager -- just getting a win after losing four straight. QB Jay Cutler has been far better at home than on the road and with the threat of a running game against a poor run defense, the offense should take better advantage of opportunities.

 Meanwhile, a Bears defense allowing 45 percent of the opponents' third down conversions -- after giving up 12-of-18 to Minnesota -- is finally able to get off the field while facing an injury-plagued Rams offense that ranks 30th in scoring (130 points). Take Bears.

New Orleans at Washington (+9.5)

Last week: Saints beat Patriots 38-17; Redskins lost to Eagles 27-24.

The Saints are coming off an impressive Monday night win at home over New England. The Redskins hope is for New Orleans to suffer some sort of letdown. As well as the Saints have played, three weeks ago they only beat lowly St. Louis by five points. And the Redskins do have an excellent defense and could be getting two starters back in DT Albert Haynesworth and CB DeAngelo Hall.

However, their offensive line is not equipped to provide the help Washington needs -- even if the Saints don't blitz, which they may not have to do. And the Redskins' defense continues to allow too many big plays. Take Saints.

Pittsburgh at Oakland (+13.5)

Last week: Steelers lost to Ravens 20-17; Raiders lost to Cowboys 24-7.

The Steelers are still in good position to grab one of the wild-card playoff spots in the AFC, especially with their next two games against the Raiders and Browns. But they will probably have to win their remaining five games, or, at the very least, go 4-1 to do.

They have a schedule that will allow them to do that, but their inconsistency on offense and the surprising inability of the defense to create turnovers and close out games makes the possibility of running the table highly unlikely. Playing at home, though, will help end the slide, but Raiders cover. Take points and Raiders.

Detroit at Cincinnati (-12.5)

Last week: Lions lost to Packers 34-12; Bengals beat Browns 16-7.

The anticipation of reaching the playoffs as AFC North champs is building for the Bengals, who currently own the conference No. 2 playoff seed behind No. 1 Indianapolis.

The Bengals have good depth and talent and have shown resilience throughout the season. They face two tough opponents on the road in consecutive weeks (at Minnesota on Dec. 13 and at San Diego on Dec. 20), but they can’t afford to look ahead.

Their focus has to be on putting the Lions away as they continue their playoff push. Detroit marks the Bengal’s second-to-last home game of the regular season. They won’t let the fans or themselves down. Take Bengals.

San Diego at Cleveland (+12.5)

Last week: Chargers beat Chiefs 43-14; Browns lost to Bengals 16-7.

The Browns can't catch the Lions for the dubious honor of "worst record for the decade," but they'll finish second, and they look as bad as or worse than the Detroit sadsacks who went 0-16 in 2008. Browns fans are in "how do I hate thee" mode, having grown sick of watching a tepid running attack, an awful passing game, leaky pass defense and a run defense frequently hurt inside and out.

The Browns were ranked 32nd in total defense even before injuries left prospects even more miserable. These are days of forced smiles and counting down to a sprint to postseason vacations.

The Chargers, on the other hand, announced themselves as a Super Bowl threat with a recent 32-3 beatdown at Denver that is the master stroke of their current six-game win streak. QB Phillip Rivers has the offense humming, and the defense is finding itself.

Good teams have punished the Browns all year. San Diego is flirting with greatness, and the Browns have the potential to keep getting worse. Take Chargers.

New England at Miami (+5.5)

Last week: Patriots lost to Saints 38-17; Dolphins lost to Bills 31-14.

The Patriots lost 38-17 to the Saints last week, sending a clear message to the rest of the league: New England, for now, does not belong in the league's elite. New Orleans shut down the Pats, who have lost two in a row, including a 1-4 record on the road.

The Dolphins suffered a brutal 31-14 loss to the Bills. Miami had won five of seven heading into Buffalo and a win would have left it just a game behind New England in the AFC East. That makes this game incredibly important for both teams.

Tom Brady racked up 332 yards against Miami in Week 9's 27-17 victory, and he'll be especially motivated this week after getting shoved around in New Orleans. Look for Randy Moss to duplicate his efforts last time around (147 yards, touchdown) and the Patriots to lock down a crucial blowout over their AFC East rivals. Take Patriots.

San Francisco at Seattle (PK)

Last week: 49ers beat Jaguars 20-3; Seahawks beat Rams 27-17.

Only two opponents have won three games at Qwest Field since it opened in 2002: San Francisco and Arizona. The 49ers have won two of their last three games in Seattle.

But the Seahawks showed improvement on offense in November despite playing four of five games on the road. Now that Seattle is back home, those improvements should start translating into victories. Take Seahawks.

Baltimore at Green Bay (-2.5)

Last week: Ravens beat Steelers 20-17; Packers beat Lions 34-12.

The Ravens can throw the ball in any weather with Joe Flacco. So if the Packers load up people in the box, they should be able to take advantage of it. But this should be a chance for the Packers to establish the run with Ryan Grant, Ahman Green and Brandon Jackson, and if they do that, Rodgers will have all day to throw. T

The Packers have played well at home in the last two games and the crowd has played to the defense quite a bit. It will be tough for the Ravens to overcome the defense and the noise. Take Packers.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

By: Aengus Moorehead @ 20:14 | Category: Football  | Comments: 0 | Permalink