Week 17

December 27 2008 @ 17:03

Once again, favorites are faltering miserably down the stretch. Last week’s performance displayed by the chosen elite was simply abysmal. Nine, count them, nine favorites lost outright and two more didn’t cover the spread. Amazingly, it could have been worse as some of the favorites had to come from behind to cover.

 Indianapolis trailed throughout the game and needed an interception good for a touchdown to cover by half a point. Miami got a scare from the Chiefs in KC but two unanswered TD in the second half helped them to prevail. The Giants who could have kicked a field goal in OT against Carolina and not cover managed a touchdown instead and the Bears could have easily lost outright if not for Robbie Gould’s right leg.

Which teams make it to the playoffs this weekend?

AFC East: Miami

AFC North: Baltimore

AFC West: San Diego

NFC East: Dallas

NFC North: Minnesota

NFC South: Tampa Bay

MY RECORD AGAINST THE SPREAD

Last week: 8-8

Season: 124-116

Dallas at Philadelphia (-1.5)

Last week: Dallas lost to Baltimore 33-24; Philadelphia lost to Washington 10-3.

Eagles vs. Cowboys never lack for pomp and circumstance, but Sunday's clash between the hated division rivals will have major playoff implications for at least one team.

Dallas would earn a wild-card berth with a win. It also would be able to forget about how poorly it has played down the stretch, including an embarrassing defeat to the Ravens last Saturday in the final game at Texas Stadium. The defense, which looked so punishing a week earlier against the Giants, allowed two long, game-breaking touchdown runs late in the fourth quarter when the Ravens were trying to run out the clock.

The Eagles know all about embarrassing losses. They lost control of their playoff destiny by falling 10-3 to the Washington Redskins. The offense, so potent during the team's three-game win streak, tanked on Sunday: The receivers dropped passes and the line couldn't establish the run. Now the Eagles must beat Dallas and get help to avoid missing the postseason again.

This game will be critical in deciding the future of each franchise. If the Cowboys lose, coach Wade Phillips could have started sending out his resume but lately received a vote of confidence from owner Jerry Jones and quarterback Tony Romo’s reputation as the league's best quarterback from September to November will haunt him for another off-season. Terrell Owens isn't likely to bow out quietly, either, and owner Jerry Jones will be forced to undertake a major shakeup to ensure the seats are filled when the team's state-of-the-art, multibillion-dollar stadium opens next season.

This game's a toss-up. If a postseason spot is within reach for the Eagles by kickoff, they won't fold. For the Eagles to make the playoffs, they have to first beat Dallas, then have to hope Oakland beats Tampa Bay. If they find out that Tampa Bay beat Oakland before they kick-off against Dallas, that's a major advantage for Dallas because Philadelphia will have a little less energy as the game starts. But even if they've been eliminated, they'll still be motivated to keep their fiercest rivals out of the postseason.

In recent years the first game of the season series has tended to be a shootout and the second game, usually played very late in the season and with playoff implications, has been a knock-down, drag-out affair.

The defenses will decide this game. The team that best pressures the quarterback and takes advantage of hurried throws will be in position to finish off its opponent. If Dallas doesn't win this one, they don't deserve to make the playoffs. Can Tony Romo finally deliver a big game for the Boys in December? I think he will. Take Cowboys.

Chicago at Houston (-1.5)

Last week: Chicago beat Green Bay 20-17; Houston lost to Oakland 27-16.

The focus is entirely on the Bears in this game. If they win and the Vikings lose at home to the Giants on Sunday, the Bears will win the NFC North title. If the Vikings and the Bears both win, the Vikings win the division because they hold the tiebreaker. The Bears, though, can still earn a wild-card berth but would need help.

The momentum of their Monday night victory over the Packers should help get them through a short week, but they can't afford to be overconfident against a Texans team that is good at home is playing for an 8-8 record.

The Texans average 25 points at Reliant Stadium, so the Bears' floundering offense must put it together in this game. It's a struggle for anybody besides running back Matt Forte to move the ball. QB Kyle Orton needs to play better, too, for Chicago to keep up with Houston.

Just as the Bears are not good enough to win a shootout, they're not good enough to have success on the road if they shoot themselves in the foot. Eight of Orton's 12 interceptions have come in the last four games and they've put the defense in tough spots. The Bears are good at taking the ball away, but they can't be in a giving mood on the road this holiday weekend.

The Texans failed to find star receiver Andre Johnson that last week against the Raiders. Oakland cornerbacks Nnamdi Asomugha and Chris Johnson had something to do with Johnson just getting two catches for 19 yards, but the Texans should have tried harder to get him involved. Targeting Johnson will be critical against the Bears.

Several key Texans will have personal motivation in this game: Johnson can wrap up the best statistical season in his career; running back Steve Slaton will try to top Bears running back and fellow rookie Forte; and Kris Brown will go up against Robbie Gould in a matchup between premier kickers.

This is a game for pride for the Texans; they aren’t interested with a losing record this year and will do anything to prevent that. Take Texans.

Miami at NY Jets (-2.5)

Last week: Miami beat Kansas City 38-31; NY Jets lost to Seattle 13-3.

Follow your heart and take the Jets if you must. But the way they have been playing since beating the Titans has been an embarrassment.

Pro-bowler Brett Favre will probably play his last game and his trademark smile and swagger were missing after his team latest loss to the lowly Seahawks. He has looked every bit his 39 years of age in the last four games, throwing one TD passes and six interceptions while the Jets have gone 1-3. This is the fourth consecutive season in which his performance has fallen off dramatically toward the end of the year, and this will be farewell for the legendary gunslinger.

On the other side of the ball, Chad Pennington could lead his Dolphins from worst to first in the AFC East? Unlike Favre, the former Jets is on a roll, with nine TD passes and only two interceptions in his last five games. Pennington is a proud, fierce competitor, and while he likely won't admit it publicly, reaching the playoffs by knocking out the team that unceremoniously dumped him after acquiring Favre would be quiet redemption for him..

For the 24 players that were part of last year's 1-15 season, they will be motivated by proving they aren't as bad as 2007 indicated. For Pennington he will be motivated to prove to his former team that he is, in fact, a star quarterback in the NFL. For everyone else, the AFC East title is motivating enough. The point is, everyone on the Dolphins roster has a reason to be emotional Sunday. But the Dolphins haven't won games based on emotion. Quite the opposite. This has been a stoic team that has managed to keep those emotions in check to allow methodical, calculated decisions. For one more week, the Dolphins need to continue to play with their minds as much as their hearts.

The Jets seem like a different team than they were a month ago, as age (with Favre) and nagging injuries with star nose tackle Kris Jenkins have caught up to their biggest playmakers. The players seem to be losing faith in the coaching staff's ability to turn around this slide, and that doesn't bode well with a hot Miami team riding four consecutive victories invading the Meadowlands on Sunday. Pennington and the Dolphins won in bone-chilling cold at Kansas City, and the veteran QB knows all about the swirling winds at the Meadowlands at this time of the year.

With the Jets' emotions at a low ebb, they need to score on their first possession, preferably a touchdown this time, the way they did against Buffalo two weeks ago. Otherwise, a frustrated, pessimistic home crowd will turn against them very quickly and make life even more difficult. Sadly for Favre, he doesn’t appear to have enough in the tank to pull it off, it just won’t happen. Take Dolphins.

New England at Buffalo (6.5)

Last week: New England beat Arizona 47-7; Buffalo beat Denver 30-23.

In terms of a playoff opportunity, Sunday's season finale means nothing to the Buffalo Bills. But don't tell them they don't have a lot to play for.

The Bills return home to face the New England Patriots, who have won the last 10 meetings and 15 of the last 16 in this AFC East matchup. No team has dominated the Bills this much since their 0-for-the-'70s winless drought against the Miami Dolphins. The Bills' current losing streak versus the Patriots is tied for the season-longest in team history.

Most of the Patriots' wins have been lopsided affairs as the Bills have failed to score more than 17 points in any of the 10 losses. Last year, the Patriots outscored the Bills, 94-17, in two games.

What is more discouraging for the Bills is the second game each year has been more lopsided than the first. In the last three years alone, the Patriots have completed their season sweep in Buffalo by outscoring the hosts, 119-23.

So there is plenty of incentive for the Bills on Sunday. Not only that, they are in position to play the role of spoiler. The Patriots need a win and a Miami loss at the New York Jets to capture the division title.

Imagine that. The Bills have a chance to not only end years of frustration against their long-time nemesis, they also could knock them out of the playoffs.

Both could prove to be quite a chore because the Patriots are playing their best football of the season. Their offense has been as potent as last year's record-setting edition, averaging 40 points during their current three-game winning streak. New England has reach the 40-point mark four this season, three in the last five games, and scored 30 or more nine times.

Oh and by the way, the Patriots have not lost in December since 2006, a run of 11 straight games.

The Patriots have led their last two games 21-0 in practically the blink of an eye, which turns loose their defense and breaks the spirit of the opposition. A similarly quick start against the Bills will force the Bills to abandon their power running game and take to the air, which should allow the Pats to get after QB Trent Edwards.

The Bills insist they aren't intimidated by the Patriots, though their timid play in recent years suggests otherwise. The Bills have nothing to lose so should be in attack mode on offense with more downfield passes and on defense with blitzes and more bump-and-run coverage. Instead of being on their heels against the Patriots, the Bills should try being the aggressor for a change.

The Bills did as well as could be expected against the Patriots' passing attack in the team's Week 10 game (a 20-10 New England win). But the Bills' lack of a pass rush allowed Matt Cassel to convert several key third-down plays down the stretch.

When Tom Brady went down for the season with a knee injury, the Patriots' reign of dominance in the AFC East was supposed to end. Although they have certainly fallen back to the pack, the Patriots are in position to win yet another division title. There is no one on the Bills' schedule they want to beat more than the Patriots. Despite losing eight of their last 11 games, winning this game would make the Bills season, and perhaps guarantee Dick Jauron returns for a fourth year as head coach. However, this is too steep a hill to climb for the Bills, especially with so much on the line for the Patriots. Take Patriots.

Denver at San Diego (-8.5)

Last week: Denver lost to Buffalo 30-23; San Diego beat Tampa Bay 41-24.

I can’t wait for this caper although neither team deserves a playoff spot but the fact remains that the victor gets to win the AFC West and it demands nevertheless our attention.

The Chargers are clearly playing with confidence and are coming off arguably their best game of the season in all three phases. While the Broncos are struggling, their quarterback can sling it and has five different receivers with at least 30 receptions.

In their first meeting, both teams combined for 941 yards and 77 points when they met on Sept. 14. There is little to suggest either defense will be able to prevent a recurrence. While the Chargers' defense is improved (allowing fewer yards and creating more turnovers) they are still susceptible to the deep ball. And the Broncos are allowing the fifth-most yards and fifth-most points in the NFL.

The Broncos are on the verge of becoming the first team since divisional play begin to lose a three-game lead in their division with three games to go. Only the 2003 Minnesota Vikings raced out to a three-game advantage at any point and fell short of first place. Denver has been unpredictable at best, losing four games to teams with a combined record of 18-42. But they have shown some bounce-back ability against better teams. Now, because of their inconsistencies, they have to show up or their season ends, coming off an inexplicable home loss to Buffalo.

Denver's defense has shown no consistent ability to keep teams off the scoreboard. The team's allowed 30 or more points in three of four games and eight times overall, the most since the 1968 season. So the offense has no choice put to put the ball up in the air against San Diego's 31st ranked defense and hope for the best.

The Broncos can't stop the run or the pass, so the Chargers will likely try to pound the run early to show they can and then go over the top to Vincent Jackson, Chris Chambers and Antonio Gates the way they did at Tampa Bay. Rivers is as hot as he has been in his career, has a cleaner pocket more often, and the Chargers receivers have been dependably open and sure-handed of late.

The Chargers are streaking, the Broncos reeling. The Broncos declared last week practically a must-win, because they knew they didn't want to have to try to clinch in San Diego. Now they have to against the team that has finally showed up in the way they were expected. Missed red zone opportunities killed the Chargers at Denver in September as much as Ed Hochuli's blown call. Rivers is not making those mistakes now. There should be lots of points, but the Chargers are the ones poised to take advantage of the opportunity but the Broncos, out of desperation, should keep it close. Take points and Broncos.

Oakland at Tampa Bay (-12.5)

Last week: Oakland beat Houston 27-16; Tampa Bay lost to San Diego 41-24.

The Bucs must have this game, and they're at home. Even though they haven't played well in recent weeks, they are the better team in this one and with their backs against the way they will prove that. Look for a big bounce-back effort by the defense and a solid offensive performance that will allow the Bucs to do their part in keeping their playoff hopes alive. However, Oakland is coming off its best game of the year, beating a good Houston Texans team 27-16. The Raiders lose but cover. Take points and Raiders.

Detroit at Green Bay (-9.5)

Last week: Detroit lost to New Orleans 42-7; Green Bay lost to Chicago 20-17.

In most cases, you'd pick the Packers big in this game. They're at home, they're playing the Lions and it will be cold outside. But this is exactly the kind of game in which the Packers have underperformed. There's no reason they shouldn't be able to put up big numbers against the wretched Lions, but stranger things have happened. Expect the Lions to be in this game at halftime before finally succumbing because of less talent. The Lions will go 0-16 but not without a fight. Take points and Lions.

NY Giants at Minnesota (-6.5)

Last week: NY Giants beat Carolina 34-28; Minnesota lost to Atlanta 24-17.

The Giants can't improve their playoff seeding, but they will want to have momentum heading into the postseason, so this game could be important to them. They want to have the same swagger they had before last year's playoffs, which culminated with a Super Bowl title. New York might not need to rest its starters because it has a first-round bye. But the Vikings are looking for a win to lock up a playoff berth after the Bears stayed in contention with an overtime win over the Packers on Monday night. They should prevail but it will be decided by a field goal. Take Giants.

Carolina at New Orleans (2.5)

Last week: Carolina lost to NY Giants 34-28; New Orleans beat Detroit 42-7.

Even though only one of these teams will make the playoffs, this game still means something for both squads. This is an intense divisional rivalry, and a friendly rivalry between coaching friends Sean Payton and John Fox. Payton, an offensive guy, and Fox, a defensive guy, have really enjoyed the chess match against each other in recent years, and this week will be no different. Carolina has won five of the last six games in this series and nine of the last 12. The Saints would consider it a minor moral victory to finish the season by beating such a quality opponent with so much on the line. Take Saints.

St-Louis at Atlanta (-14.5)

Last week: St-Louis lost to San Francisco 17-16; Atlanta beat Minnesota 24-17.

This is the 2-13 St. Louis Rams at the 10-5 Atlanta Falcons. The question is not so much who is going to win, it is more by how much? Falcons coach Mike Smith is in a bit of a tough situation though because, as much as he would like to end the season 11-5, it is more important to make sure that all of his 22 best will be at their finest next week in the Wildcard playoff, especially running back Michael Turner and quarterback Matt Ryan. St. Louis has had their positive moments and, because they have been out of the playoff hunt for so long, this is routine for them. I am anticipating that coach Smith plays for tomorrow and does not concern himself with today, but the Falcons will still be too much for the Rams. Take Falcons.

Kansas City at Cincinnati (-2.5)

Last week: Kansas City lost to Miami 38-31; Cincinnati beat Cleveland 14-0.

Imagine you are a season-ticket holder for the Bengals. Your home team is 3-11-1 and they are playing the 2-13 Chiefs. You have to be a hardcore fan to watch this one live in the cold. The Bengals have an opportunity to close out the season with a three-game winning streak. They haven't won three straight games since 2006 when they rattled off four in a row during a November-December stretch. The Chiefs is a young team that plays hard they have kept games real close against more talented teams than the Bengals. Look for the mild upset here. Take Chiefs.

Jacksonville at Baltimore (-11.5)

Last week: Jacksonville lost to Indianapolis 31-24; Baltimore beat Dallas 33-24.

The Ravens have something to play for, and the Jaguars have nothing. The Jaguars have been hit hard by injuries, especially on the offensive line. If the Ravens get a lead, and keep the crowd in the game, this game could be over by halftime. The Ravens are like sharks in the water, and they smell blood and a playoff berth. It will be a long day for Jacksonville. Take Ravens.

Tennessee at Indianapolis (2.5)

Last week: Tennessee beat Pittsburgh 31-14; Indianapolis beat Jacksonville 31-24.

Nothing will be on the line Sunday at Lucas Oil Stadium. The Titans have locked up the No. 1 seed, assuring the road to the AFC title goes through Nashville. The Colts have locked up the No. 5 seed.

The Colts might want to make a statement and extract some payback for losing 31-21 in Nashville in late October, but their backups won't be able to make enough plays in the second half to earn a seasonal split. Titans' Fisher might feel obligated to play his starters longer than Dungy since Tennessee has a first-round bye in the playoffs. They should be able to establish a lead that Indy's subs are unable to overcome. Take Titans.

Cleveland at Pittsburgh (-10.5)

Last week: Cleveland lost to Cincinnati 14-0; Pittsburgh lost to Tennessee 31-14.

The Browns have problems beating the Steelers, no matter where the game is located, no matter if nothing is at stake. Just because the Steelers will likely rest some of their players, or, at the very least, limit their playing time, doesn't mean that the backups won't be mentally and physically ready to step in and continue the trend. The Browns are without both of their top quarterbacks and will rely on Bruce Gradkowski who has little experience against a Dick LeBeau defense, especially one like this. The Steelers know they have an extra week to rest. They'll be ready, starters or backups. Take Steelers.

Seattle at Arizona (-5.5)

Last week: Seattle beat NY Jets 13-3; Arizona lost to New England 47-7.

Through their own incompetence, the Cardinals are now a desperate team. That's what losing four of five will do to you. Their division title has been sullied by the second-half collapse, and they know finishing the season with an 8-8 record puts a negative stamp on this season, given that the team once was 7-3. The Seahawks are playing well, despite being devastated by injuries and this will be Mike Holmgren's last game as the Seahawks coach. I smell an upset in Phoenix. Take Seahawks.

Washington at San Francisco (-2.5)

Last week: Washington beat Philadelphia 10-3; San Francisco beat St-Louis 17-16.

Tough week to fly East to West and history says it's a true disadvantage to the team that does have to travel. Jim Zorn is locked into his position as a head coach. Mike Singletary will soon have that security. Overall, considering the circumstances, Singletary has done good job re-instilling that 49er pride in its on-field performance. It is also a very important game for Shaun Hill at QB. He is coming off a difficult game against St. Louis and almost was pulled. He’ll rebound this week. Take 49ers.

By: Aengus Moorehead @ 17:03 | Category: Football  | Comments: 1 | Permalink

Week 16

December 17 2008 @ 19:55

Once again, last week’s favourites had some intricate tribulations against their inferior rivals. Indeed, over half of these underperformers either failed to cover the spread or were simply embarrassed by their weaker opponents. Although the Colts show great promise for a seventh post-season birth in as many years, they predominantly grind out victories when they are spotted as favourite. They failed to cover six times this year but yet managed three victories as underdogs…go figure.

Last week’s favourites losing outright, though some of these games were tightly fought out, were Green bay, the slumping Titans, the Ravens who fell under the Steelers’ fourth quarter spell, the Cardinals and the discomfited Redskins which lost to the lowly Bengals.

Barely eking by were the Jets which received an early Christmas gift from the Bills late in the game, the Dolphins keeping on swimming in shallow waters, the enigmatic Chargers and the Colts.

This week, the highest spread is bestowed upon the Patriots at 7 ½, ironically against a playoff team in the Cardinals. The Jets are travelling west again and that is not a good sign, look for Seattle to give them a hard time. In fact, I will go out on a limb here and I will pick the Seahawks to upset the Jets. The Steelers which are travelling to Nashville will easily take care of the Titans.

MY RECORD AGAINST THE SPREAD

Last week: 8-8

Season: 116-108

Indianapolis at Jacksonville (6.5)

Last week: Indianapolis beat Detroit 31-21; Jacksonville beat Green Bay 20-16.

Coming off its first home victory in more than three months, Jacksonville can't keep Indianapolis out of the playoffs. But it views this matchup as a prime opportunity to snap the Colts' seven-game winning streak.

Usually this AFC South clash is one of the season's hottest, but the Jags' season-long run of bad fortune has taken some of the shine off. Still, this game is considered a rivalry. Jacksonville has always been able to kick its game up a notch for Indianapolis, and the Colts would like to exact revenge for a Sept. 21 loss to the Jags at Lucas Oil Stadium.

The key in this game will be the first half - the first quarter to be more specific. The Jags are not made to come from behind. However, Jacksonville appeared to rekindle some of the offensive spark from last season in its triumph over Green Bay last week.

Indianapolis, meanwhile, appears primed to make a deep run in what will be its seventh-consecutive playoff appearance. After a slow start, QB Peyton Manning seems to be catching fire, having thrown for 13 touchdowns and just three interceptions during the club's winning streak. The offensive line has allowed just four sacks during that time, as well. Indianapolis' defense seems to be the team's main concern.

Indy's defense has been solid against the run after a spotty start, but once again will be without starting middle linebacker Gary Brackett. He might be unheralded across the league, but he's a defensive anchor. The return of safety Bob Sanders from knee issues should bolster the run defense, especially if he spends much of the game near the line of scrimmage.

Even if the defense plays at a high level, the Jaguars likely will control time of possession with RB Maurice Jones-Drew and a short passing game. That means fewer possessions for Manning. When Jacksonville won the first meeting 23-21 in Indy, it dominated time of possession (41:35-18:25) and limited Manning to just eight drives. Manning generated three touchdowns, but it wasn't enough. He'll need to be more efficient in what always is a hostile environment. Indy's offense has gotten better as the season has unfolded and ranks No. 1 in two key categories: third-down conversions (49.2 percent) and red-zone efficiency (70.5 percent).

Jacksonville appears rejuvenated after last week's win, and a victory over Indianapolis would be evidence that the club isn't as bad as its record indicates. The prevailing thought in Jacksonville is that the team will undergo significant changes in the offseason. But in reality, the Jaguars don't appear to be tremendously far from being a contender again.

Like they were against Tennessee in Week 11, the Jaguars will probably be competitive against the Colts early. But the lack of a pass rush and an injury-depleted secondary will ultimately lead to the club's undoing against Indianapolis' high-powered offense. Nevertheless, I think the Jaguars keep this one close. Take points and Jaguars.

Baltimore at Dallas (-5.5)

Last week: Baltimore lost to Pittsburgh 13-9; Dallas beat NY Giants 20-8.

The Cowboys, who have yet to clinch a playoff spot, will play their third consecutive game against a powerful defensive team. Baltimore is also still fighting to secure its playoff position in the AFC.

This is a game between two of the NFL's premier defenses. We all knew Baltimore, ranked second in the league in total defense, with Ed Reed and Ray Lewis would be outstanding defensively. But the Cowboys and their seventh-ranked defense are also among the teams playing the best defense in the league. The Cowboys' defensive fortunes turned seven weeks ago when coach Wade Phillips took over the defensive reins. Since then, he has called the plays, while defensive coordinator Brian Stewart has handled the game plan.

This game is about which defense can outplay the other.

The Cowboys have yielded just four touchdowns in their opponents' last 60 possessions, spanning five games. DeMarcus Ware a candidate for defensive player of the year leads the team with 19 sacks -- three shy of the NFL record for most sacks in a season.

The Cowboys have one of the biggest offensive lines in the league. They can overpower defenses and wear teams down in the fourth quarter. The Ravens defensive line has to have a big game. They also have a lot of weapons on the outside, and the Ravens secondary has been hit hard by injuries. If the Ravens don't get pressure on the quarterback, Tony Romo and is his posse could put up big numbers.

The Cowboys have flustered some of the league's top quarterbacks -- Ben Roethlisberger and Eli Manning -- the past two games. The Cowboys sacked Roethlisberger five times and Manning eight. The key, though, is taking away the running game and making teams one dimensional. QB Joe Flacco passed for just 115 yards against Pittsburgh. In fact, he has passed for more than 200 yards just once in the last six games, with eight touchdowns and five interceptions. However, he's only been sacked 25 times this season.

This is likely the last game at Texas Stadium. Combine that with the emotion and intensity fans usually bring to a night game, and the Cowboys should have every emotional advantage. Baltimore is not equipped to play from behind with its conservative offense and rookie quarterback. If the Cowboys can score early and make the Ravens abandon their running game, they'll have a significantly easier time with this team.

For the first time in years, the Cowboys appear to be peaking in December. They're playing their best football right now -- even with all of the dysfunctional stuff going on off-the-field. The short week makes it tougher on the visiting Ravens. The Cowboys have too much offense even for a quality defensive like Baltimore. Take Cowboys.

Pittsburgh at Tennessee (1.5)

Last week: Pittsburgh beat Baltimore 13-9; Tennessee lost to Houston 13-12.

Right now, it's for all the marbles in the AFC as far as the No.1 seed in the playoffs is concerned. If the Titans win, they'll have home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. If the Steelers win, all they'll need is a win over the Browns in the last week of the season to get the No.1 seed. It's a huge game and it will set the path for the road to Super Bowl XLIII.

For most of the regular season, the Titans looked like the class of the AFC. They jumped off to a 10-0 start, and looked unbeatable. Now they've lost two of four and will be without two key defensive starters for the game — defensive tackle Albert Haynesworth and defensive end Kyle Vanden Bosch. Did the Titans reach its zenith too early and are they falling apart at the worst possible time? Sunday's game will provide a big clue.

If you like defense, this one's for you. The Steelers enter the game ranked No.1 in the NFL in just about every major category, from total defense to scoring defense. The Titans, meanwhile, are all about winning games with defense as well. They're ranked fourth in total defense, second in scoring defense. It should be one of the most physical games of the season in the NFL.

The Steelers' No. 2 rush defense has allowed just two teams to rush for more than 100 yards this season, though Baltimore's Le'Ron McClain had the most yards by an opposing back — 87 on 23 carries — last week. Their goal is to take away Chris Johnson and LenDale White and force Kerry Collins to beat them.

The Steelers had to deal without running back Willie Parker for a while, but he's back and he can be lethal. The Titans gave up a 100-yard game to Houston's Steve Slaton last week and aren't the same without Haynesworth and Vanden Bosch. If they allow Parker to get going, it will put even more stress on the defense. They will need to wrap up and tackle well effectively to contain the little speedster.

The Steelers are peaking at just the right time, winners of five straight. The Titans, meanwhile, suddenly look vulnerable, and now without two of their top defensive players for the rest of the regular season. The Steelers have a way of making life miserable for opposing offenses and they'll get after Collins. On defense, they'll also keep the Titans from being able to control the game with the run. And Pittsburgh will score enough points on offense to take over home-field advantage in the playoffs. Take Steelers.

Carolina at NY Giants (-2.5)

Last week: Carolina beat Denver 30-10; NY Giants lost to Dallas 20-8.

A two-game losing streak by the Giants allowed the Panthers to pick up two games on them in the standings over the past two weeks. This game is for the No. 1 seed in the NFC, and expect both teams to play as if their postseason lives depend on the outcome.

Both sides want the road to the Super Bowl to go through their city and will not rest anyone or give up anything this late in the season. The Giants a year ago did the unexpected by winning three consecutive postseason games on the road en route to gaining admission to the Super Bowl, but they realize that is not the preferred way to get there again. After leading the NFC for the entire season, the Giants do not want to take a step back.

The Giants know much of their success last season was generated by their ability to play their best football in the closing weeks. Now they are facing a much different predicament. After surging to an 11-1 record and being widely acknowledged as the best team in the NFL, the Giants have lost two straight and are in danger of having a late-season slide. Did they peak too soon?

Not long ago the highest-scoring team in the league, the Giants in their past two games have only one offensive touchdown, and that was in garbage time against the Eagles. This swoon took hold immediately after WR Plaxico Burress was suspended for the remainder of the season. Even though Burress was hot having a spectacular season, this is no coincidence. The running game has gone south without Brandon Jacobs (knee) and the offensive line, heralded as the best in the league, allowed eight sacks by the Cowboys and might be wearing down.

The Panthers, behind the powerful rushing of DeAngelo Williams and the big-play receiving of Steve Smith are playing as well or better than anyone in the NFL right now. They've won three straight, including a key divisional game against the Bucs on Monday night two weeks ago, and have the look of a legitimate Super Bowl contender. They'd clearly be among the favorites to win it all with a win in New York and a No. 1 seed in the NFC playoffs.

The past two weeks the Giants faced desperate teams (Eagles, Cowboys) fighting for playoff berths and were not able to match the intensity of their opponent. Now the Giants are desperate to avoid a three-game losing steak and badly want to secure a first-round bye then the No. 1 seed in the NFC. Unless they are completely out of gas, the defense should be able to limit running backs Williams and Stewart to manageable production. But the Giants must get their own slumping offense on track. Nothing will come easy, but in what figures to be a playoff-type atmosphere the Giants should be able to muster up just enough points. Take Giants.

Atlanta at Minnesota (-3.5)

Last week: Atlanta beat Tampa Bay 13-10; Minnesota beat Arizona 35-14.

This game means a lot to both teams. The Vikings' magic number to make the playoffs is one. Minnesota (9-5) can clinch the NFC North with a win against Atlanta or a Chicago loss to Green Bay on Monday night. The 9-5 Falcons are in a tight NFC wild-card race with Tampa Bay and Dallas.

Minnesota is peaking at the right time. It played its best game of the season last week, a 35-14 rout at Arizona. Quarterback Tavaris Jackson made his case to be the full-time starter by throwing a career-high four touchdown passes, with no interceptions.

Atlanta won last week despite a subpar game from rookie quarterback Matt Ryan, who had no touchdowns, two interceptions and two fumbles against Tampa Bay. Can Ryan rebound this week in the Metrodome?

The Falcons' Michael Turner earned his 152 yards against the Bucs as he dodged, hit and carried defenders over 32 carries. The Falcons need Turner to keep on pounding against a Vikings' run defense that will be without one of its anchors, tackle Pat Williams.

The Vikings consider themselves the best run-stuffers in the NFL; they led the NFL in rushing defense the previous two seasons and are No. 1 again this year. Atlanta, on the other hand, leads the NFL in rushing offense.

Ryan wouldn't be the first inexperienced quarterback to have problems in the Metrodome: Chicago's Kyle Orton and Green Bay's Aaron Rodgers played well in home wins over Minnesota but were overwhelmed by the crowd noise and an extra-aggressive Vikes' pass rush.

Last week's performance might have been Jackson’s best as a pro. The Vikings need to keep him in his comfort zone by mixing in bootlegs and rollouts to slow the pass rush and avoid blitzes. He also needs to execute as well as he did against the Cardinals, by making correct reads and hitting dump-off passes.

The Vikings have proved they can handle good ground games; if they can contain Turner, Ryan will need to produce. The Vikings, in turn, will bring the pressure and harass him. Coupled with another 100-yard game from Peterson, the home team will win. Take Vikings.

Miami at Kansas City (3.5)

Last week: Miami beat San Francisco 14-9; Kansas City lost to San Diego 22-21.

It's another game of urgency for the visiting team. Miami, New England and the New York Jets all have 9-5 records. The Jets have scored the most points of the three, while the Dolphins have allowed the fewest. The Dolphins also do not self destruct. It takes a special type of QB to have the discipline to always make the right decision; Chad Pennington is one of those quarterbacks. In many ways he should be the 2008 NFL comeback player of the year. Playing Kansas at 2-12 is a total trap game for Miami. KC has played well over the last three weeks and their last loss to San Diego should not have happened. The dual ability of ball security and solid defence is how Miami played so well all season long. Take Dolphins.

Arizona at New England (-7.5)

Last week: Arizona lost to Minnesota 35-14; New England beat Oakland 49-26.

Both teams need this game, but the Patriots need it more. Their playoff hopes hinge on it. They don't control their destiny, but they'll need a ton of help if they lose. They could even be eliminated.

The Cardinals have the whole respect thing to work on, especially coming off of a blowout loss to the Vikings. But they've already clinched the NFC West and might not be inspired on what projects to be a miserable New England day. Bill Belichick's teams play their best football in December and beyond, and this is a chance to prove it. Take Patriots.

Cincinnati at Cleveland (-2.5)

Last week: Cincinnati beat Washington 20-13; Cleveland lost to Philadelphia 30-10.

There would seem to be two important edges in this game. One is home field, which goes to Cleveland, but not by a wide margin. Browns fans has lapsed from anger to apathy and will stay away in droves.

The other edge, at quarterback, goes to Cincinnati. Both Fitzpatrick and Dorsey are cerebral quarterbacks, but only Fitzpatrick has parlayed that into glimpses of productivity. Fitzpatrick outplayed Redskins’ QB Jason Campbell in Sunday’s 20-13 victory. He didn't just managed the Bengals to their second win of the season. He made several plays with his legs. QB Ken Dorsey has had two fitful games -- his only starts since 2005 -- in lopsided losses to the Titans and Eagles. Take Bengals.

Philadelphia at Washington (4.5)

Last week: Philadelphia beat Cleveland 30-10; Washington lost to Cincinnati 20-13.

The Redskins are in the midst of a free fall and have shown absolutely no reason to think they're going to turn it around any time soon. This is not like the teams of 2005 and '07 that finished strong. They have turned into an aging team with few playmakers. Meanwhile, Philadelphia has been playing much better of late. The Redskins inability to muster any ground attack will put them in too many third and longs lately. And that plays into the Eagles' blitz package. Also, the Redskins have applied no pressure on quarterbacks whatsoever. Donovan McNabb will have time to find his playmakers. A healthy Brian Westbrook will have a big day in his hometown. Take Eagles.

San Francisco at St-Louis (4.5)

Last week: San Francisco lost to Miami 14-9; St-Louis lost to Seattle 23-20.

If the Rams couldn't beat a Seattle team without quarterback Matt Hasselbeck, left tackle Walter Jones, and linebacker Leroy Hill, it's hard to imagine them beating an improving San Francisco team that is playing very good defense lately under Coach Singletary. Take 49ers.

New Orleans at Detroit (6.5)

Last week: New Orleans lost to Chicago 27-24; Detroit lost to Indianapolis 31-21.

It's difficult for a team to get jacked up to play a 0-14 team -- the Colts are in the middle of a playoff push and they were sleepwalking against Detroit last week. The Lions could hang around if the Saints commit turnovers, but Detroit must do its part and score at least 30 points and make sure they have the ball last because their defense is incapable of making a key stop in the final minutes. The danger here for the Saints is that now they will not make the playoffs. There is a natural letdown the next week. Everyone is aware of it, everyone knows of it and there is little you can do to prevent it. Playing football without playoff purpose is odd but the Saints will deliver and keep the Lions winless. Take Saints.

NY Jets at Seattle (4.5)

Last week: NY Jets beat Buffalo 31-27; Seattle beat St-Louis 23-20.

This will be the Jets' fourth coast-to-coast trip to season, and they lost their earlier games in San Diego, Oakland and San Francisco. They can't afford another Left Coast letdown, nor to look past the Seahawks to next week’s biggie against the AFC East co-leading Miami Dolphins. The Seahawks have played well enough to win in their last three home games, but turnovers on their final offensive plays and the defense's inability to make stops cost them in their losses to the Cardinals (six points), Redskins (three points) and Patriots (three points). Favre knows what's at stake, and not just for his former coach. A loss here will waste everything the Jets have done so far this season and I believe that they will succumb to the pressure. Take Seahawks.

Houston at Oakland (6.5)

Last week: Houston beat Tennessee 13-12; Oakland lost to New England 49-26.

The Raiders are 0-3 against the Texans and enter this game on the heels of successive blowouts. While the Texans might have difficulty getting WR Andre Johnson the ball as often as they are accustomed, RB Mike Slaton and his backups should be able to pile up yardage against the league's 31st-ranked run defense. This is one of the few games the Raiders can enter feeling as if they have a realistic shot at winning. Then again, the Texans likely feel pretty confident against a 3-11 opponent. Take Texans.

Buffalo at Denver (-6.5)

Last week: Buffalo lost to NY Jets 31-27; Denver lost lo Carolina 30-10.

Two years ago, the Broncos had a similar scenario at Invesco Field. A struggling 49ers team came to town in the season-finale. Denver had a 10-point halftime lead, but couldn't hang on and lost in overtime. It cost the Broncos a playoff berth. The scenario this year is slightly different with San Diego still remaining on the schedule. But the urgency is the same. But Denver is seriously flawed this year so I expect the Bills to cover. Take Bills.

San Diego at Tampa Bay (-3.5)

Last week: San Diego beat Kansas City 22-21; Tampa Bay lost to Atlanta 13-10.

Both teams need this game badly. The Chargers are the healthier team and they have far more offensive firepower than the Bucs, but they're inconsistent. The Bucs are very hard to beat at home, though, and defensive coordinator Monte Kiffin usually finds what makes an opponent struggle and exposes it. If Kiffin can figure out what makes the Chargers so inconsistent and exploit it, the Bucs will produce just enough points to pull out a close victory and keep their playoff hopes alive. This caper will come down to a field goal. Take Chargers.

Green Bay at Chicago (-4.5)

Last week: Green Bay lost to Jacksonville 20-16; Chicago beat New Orleans 27.24.

The one thing the Bears have avoided during their struggles since appearing in Super Bowl XLI has been the inner conflict that seems to be plaguing Green Bay. But the Bears have not won more than consecutive games since their run to the big game in 2006, and have another opportunity to do so here. They're backed against wall here with a loss ending their slim bid for the postseason. The Packers' season is already over and they're playing like it. Take Bears.

 

By: Aengus Moorehead @ 19:55 | Category: Football  | Comments: 0 | Permalink

Week 15

December 10 2008 @ 17:38

Week 14 has brought us a bit of normalcy as far as favorites were concerned. Ten favourite teams covered their spreads and the smell of the playoffs has some licking their chops. In fact, three double-digit favourites and playoff contenders –Indianapolis, Tennessee and Arizona- made no doubt about their intentions whilst easily covering and with room to spare.

The Jets however, continued on their horrific crusade on the west coast coming out empty again against a refurbished 49er squad who now joins Oakland and San Diego as to what you may call the California nightmare for Brett Favre and his mates. The Jets are still not out of the woods yet as they are set to return on the western front on week 16 against a desperate Seahawks a “nothing to loose attitude” Seahawks’ crew.

MY RECORD AGAINST THE SPREAD

Last week: 9-7
Season: 108-100

New Orleans at Chicago (-2.5)

Last week: New Orleans beat Atlanta 29-25; Chicago beat Jacksonville 23-10.

Both franchises cling to the hope that they can run the table and make the playoffs. The Bears are in a better situation playing in the downtrodden NFC North; they trail the Vikings by two games but Minnesota has a daunting finishing schedule. The Saints also need to prove they can conquer the cold and their opponent; they've lost twice in many seasons in frigid conditions at Soldier Field.

Drew Brees still has a shot at the NFL record for passing yards in a season, and this week he'll be going against the Bears' 28th-ranked pass defense. Chicago has paid the price at times for selling out to stop the run. The Bears lack a true free safety, and top cover cornerback Charles Tillman has been inconsistent. Chicago defended Brees and his receivers in the cold the past two seasons, but never before did they look this vulnerable.

Matt Forte the Slidell, La., native, became the seventh rookie in league history to rush for 1,000 yards and catch 50 passes, joining elite company that includes LaDainian Tomlinson, Edgerrin James, Marshall Faulk, Eric Dickerson, Billy Sims and Joe Cribbs. Forte will get an opportunity to showcase himself on a national stage against a Saints' run defense that played well last week vs. Atlanta but has struggled for much of the year.

The Saints had their best rushing performance in nearly two years Sunday against Atlanta, with running backs Pierre Thomas and Reggie Bush gaining 182 yards combined on 26 carries. Coach Sean Payton has shown very little patience with the run game, but the league's No. 1 offense is even harder to defend when it can keep defenses guessing. Bush should be particularly important in frigid conditions Thursday night.

Turnovers are the biggest threat to dome teams playing in unfamiliar wintry conditions. The Saints have proved that in their past two trips to Chicago with seven turnovers combined. The Saints' aerial attack is their greatest strength, but the elements have forced errant passes, dropped balls and fumbles after the catch. On the other side of the ball, New Orleans' defense doesn't make enough big, game-changing plays in tight games.

The Bears' secondary has handled the Saints' wide receivers in New Orleans' past two visits to Soldier Field. Chicago needs to do it again on Thursday. The Bears are in their current predicament because of their shortcomings against the NFC South; they squandered double-digit second-half leads against Carolina and Tampa Bay and gave away a game to Atlanta. They've got a chance to stay alive in the NFC North against a South squad that's 1-5 on the road.Take Bears.

Tampa Bay at Atlanta (-2.5)

Last week: Tampa Bay lost to Carolina 38-23; Atlanta lost to New Orleans 29-25.

At this stage in the season, most prognosticators had the Falcons (8-5) getting ready for the draft, scouting for linebackers and safeties, instead of being right in the thick of the NFC playoff race with three games to go.

Rookie QB Matt Ryan is coming off his best game of the season. He completed 24 of 33 passes for a season-high 315 yards passes and one touchdown against the Saints. He also had a touchdown run. The timing is perfect for Ryan and the Falcons. Ryan's only real clunker game came in Week 2 at Tampa Bay. Ryan completed just 13 of 33 passes and was intercepted twice against the Bucs. He finished the game with a 29.6 season-low passer rating. It was Ryan's welcome to the NFL game. But since that game, Ryan has completed at least 51 percent of his passes in every game and has completed more than 70 percent in four games.

Meanwhile, the Bucs have had to lean far too much on their defense to win games for them this year, but this is a game in which the Bucs should be able to move the ball both on the ground and through the air. If the Bucs can do that and avoid turnovers they should be able to win even if they don't improve in the red zone, where they have struggled to score touchdowns.

The Falcons lead the league with 94 points scored in the first quarter. Also, the Falcons are 6-0 when they score on their opening drive. Atlanta had a promising first drive against the Saints but was negated by an interception. The Bucs have been slow starters on both sides of the ball this year. They can probably start off slow in this one and still win but why take the chance? The Bucs would be much better off if they jumped out to an early lead and quickly took the crowd out of the game. An early takeaway or an early touchdown will help them achieve that objective. The last thing the Bucs want to do here is give up a score or two to the Falcons and give them hope. By coming out hot and concentrating on playing 60 minutes of good football the Bucs should quickly establish themselves as the better of the two teams.

Yet, the Tampa Bay defense could have its hands full in Atlanta. The home team has won all 10 division games in the NFC South this season, with Atlanta beating New Orleans 34-20 on Nov. 9 and Carolina 45-28 on Nov. 23. The Falcons are 5-1 at the Georgia Dome, where they're averaging 32.2 points, the highest home mark in franchise history and third-highest in the league. Atlanta has scored 18.6 points per game while going 3-4 on the road.

The bad news for Tampa is that Jeff Garcia is listed as questionable because of a right calf strain, but Coach Jon Gruden said he was optimistic that Garcia will be able to play. If Garcia, who missed part of training camp with a similar injury, can't go, the Buccaneers likely would turn to Luke McCown or Brian Griese. With a frail Garcia. Take Falcons.

Pittsburgh at Baltimore (-1.5)

Last week: Pittsburgh beat Dallas 20-13; Baltimore beat Washington 24-10.

This game is for first place in the AFC North. The Ravens are one game back after losing to Pittsburgh earlier this season. If the Steelers win, they basically lock up the division title, as it would leave them with a two-game lead with only two games remaining. The two teams play with a similar style. Both have tough, physical defenses and run-oriented offenses.

The first meeting between the teams was the most physical of the season for the Steelers, and it forced Coach Mike Tomlin to curtail his practice schedule the following week. The Ravens will try to overwhelm the Steelers offense, something they always do at home, one of the reasons the Steelers have lost their past five games in Baltimore.

The Ravens are one of just two teams to rush for more than 100 yards against the Steelers' No. 1 rush defense this season (the Patriots are the other), and they did it by pounding the ball with Le’Ron McLain. That allowed them to keep the pressure off QB Joe Flacco, who was playing in just his third NFL game at the time.

Pittsburgh's offense hasn't been stellar all season, and while a lot of that falls on quarterback Ben Roethlisberger - the league's 23rd-rated passer (80.1) - much of the blame goes to a running game that can't seem to get going.

With Willie Parker nursing a knee injury and third-down back Mewelde Moore getting more carries than he's used to, the Steelers have run for 70 yards or fewer five times. Coming into 2008, they'd failed to run for 70 yards seven times in the past four seasons.

Baltimore isn't running up and down the field, either, but it may have its most versatile offense in franchise history. Joe Flacco has a 95.6 passer rating since Oct. 19, leading the Ravens to a 7-1 record while throwing 12 touchdowns and just three interceptions.

Flacco didn't throw an interception in the Steelers' overtime win over Baltimore in October, but he was stripped on a sack by James Harrison that keyed Pittsburgh's 10-point comeback.

The Ravens played two physical back-to-back games earlier this season -- against Pittsburgh and Tennessee -- and then got smacked around by the Colts. The same thing will happen to the Steelers, who are coming off games against New England and Dallas, allowing the Ravens to pull this one out. Take Ravens.

Denver at Carolina (-6.5)

Last week: Denver beat Kansas City 24-17; Carolina beat Tampa Bay 38-23.

The Panthers have to guard against a let-down after last week's emotional win over Tampa Bay. They put so much into getting revenge on a division rival for a previous embarrassing loss; they can't help but fall short of that level of emotion this time. Couple that with the pending NFC home-field advantage showdown with the Giants on Dec. 21, and the time is right for the Panthers to lack focus on a non-conference opponent.

And while they're 7-0 at home this year, the Panthers are facing a team that's won three straight on the road, against Cleveland, Atlanta and the New York Jets.

The biggest test will be tightening up the passing defense against a Broncos team that can move the ball well through the air. QB Jay Cutler had to be licking his chops when he saw Tampa Bay WR Antonio Bryant post 200 receiving yards Monday, since he's got better targets on his side. They'll need to pass, since the Panthers run defense has shown signs of playing better after a dismal stretch. The fact Denver lost its fifth back to a season-ending injury doesn't hurt, either.

Of course, Carolina's going to be leaning on its own run game, since they just put 299 yards up against the league's ninth-ranked Bucs unit, and now face the 26th-ranked Broncos.

Denver actually has played its best football against some of the top competition it’s faced on the road, especially recently. The Broncos rallied to beat Cleveland, and then played solid all-around games against both Atlanta and the New York Jets in winning three straight away from Invesco Field at Mile High. The Broncos are a young team that should on the surface thrive at home but they actually seem to play more relaxed and make more plays away from the distractions of friends and family.

The Panthers have rarely been good as a home favorite, and with all the love they've gotten for their beat-down of the Bucs, you could see them looking past this one. They better not though, because Cutler can carve up secondaries, and the Panthers have shown an alarming trend toward giving up deep balls lately. Of course, the Broncos might not be able to keep the Panthers inside 300 yards on the ground the way they've been playing defense, so this one could quickly turn into a shootout. If that happens, you'd think the team that passes it better might have an edge. This could be the upset of the week, though it wouldn't be as surprising as many think. Take points and Broncos.

NY Giants at Dallas (-2.5)

Last week: NY Giants lost to Philadelphia 20-14; Dallas lost to Pittsburgh 20-13.

This is one of the marquee games of the season because a Giants win would put a big dent in the Cowboys' playoff hopes, eliminating the most dangerous team New York could potentially face in the postseason. That's one reason this game will be so intense, even though the Giants have clinched first place in the NFC East.

The Giants have won the last two games between the teams, administering a 35-14 pasting last month, when Tony Romo was out with a broken pinkie. Obviously, the Cowboys are a different team when he's in the lineup. His ability to elude the rush, make big plays and take advantage of man-to-man coverage when the Giants blitz is among the reasons he can be effective against the Giants. But Romo is also trying to end the perception that he puts up gaudy numbers without substance, an issue that is blossoming because he has a 4-6 record in December as a starter, and he began this month with a three-interception performance Sunday in the Cowboys' loss to Pittsburgh that ended in a fourth-quarter calamity.

The Giants watched the Cowboys start the season 11-1 last year before limping into the playoffs with a 13-3 record and getting ousted by New York in the divisional round. The Giants, who began this season 11-1, want to prove they can put the distractions created by Plaxico Burress behind them and focus on winning consecutive Super Bowls, something their franchise has never done.

The Giants defense took a step back last week, allowing the Eagles to convert 12 of 18 third-down situations, leading to a hefty 34:54 time of possession. That can't happen against the Cowboys, who if they get back RB Marian Barber can grind out yardage and control the clock for long stretches. The Giants have been solid in stopping the run but were torched by Brian Westbrook for 131 yards, something they cannot allow to turn into a trend.

New York's offense will be looking to get back on track. The Giants were held to their fewest points since their last loss, 35-14 at Cleveland on Oct. 13, and set season lows with 211 total yards and a time of possession of 25:06. That style is running the ball, something New York has not done well the past few weeks. The Giants, who lead the NFL with 154.6 rushing yards per game, ran for 88 last Sunday and are averaging 94.3 over the last three contests.

However, leading rusher Brandon Jacobs who went over 1,000 yards for the season last week, but left the game after re-aggravating a left knee injury will be unable to play Sunday and he will be sorely missed.

Tony Romo will continue to have trouble in big games if he keeps turning the ball over. Romo accounted for four of Dallas' five giveaways last week with three interceptions and a fumble. He is careless with the ball and reckless in his never-ending quest to make a big play. That recklessness is also the reason he's one of the best quarterbacks in the league. Still, he can't have more than one turnover against the low-risk Giants and expect to win.

The Cowboys were outscored 17-0 in the final seven minutes last week as the Steelers overcame a 13-3 deficit. The loss was devastating for a team fighting to make the playoffs. Dallas probably needs to win at least two of their final three games to make the postseason. They can't afford to come out sluggish or spend the week having a pity party over the loss to Pittsburgh. I look for them to rebound and take care of the Giants. Take Cowboys.

Green Bay at Jacksonville (1.5)

Last week: Green Bay lost to Houston 24-21; Jacksonville lost to Chicago 23-10.

The Packers are on a three game losing streak and have lost five of their last six games. One reason for the recent stretch of losses is that the Packers lead the entire NFL in penalties with 95. That is very significant because penalties are a controllable issue that either relates to a lack of concentration or lack of emotional control. The Jaguars are in a similar situation in that they have lost four games in a row and six of the last seven. Their only win in recent memory was against the still winless Detroit Lions in Week 10. Their biggest problem is their habit of starting games slowly. They are not built to play catch-up football. They are designed to get and maintain the lead. The Packers at 5-8 still have a chance for the playoffs how ridiculous that may sound, while Jacksonville is done. I shall go with hope. Take Packers.

Detroit at Indianapolis (-16.5)

Last week: Detroit lost to Minnesota 20-16; Indianapolis beat Cincinnati 35-3.

The 16 ½ point spread is indeed abundant, but the Colts beat the Bengals by 32 points, so why couldn't they repeat that feat against the Lions? Indianapolis has won six games in a row and many of the games have been over very stern competition. This one has the look of a name-your-score matchup. The Colts are getting their act together and the Lions look to be on a path that will deliver them to the first 0-16 finish in NFL history. Detroit's defense isn't equipped to deal with the diversity at Manning's disposal. Take Colts.

Washington at Cincinnati (6.5)

Last week: Washington lost to Baltimore 24-10; Cincinnati lost to Indianapolis 35-3.

This has all the makings of a trap game for the Redskins. There's zero pressure on the Bengals, who can pull out all stops in an attempt to turn Paul Brown Stadium into their personal playpen. Meanwhile, there's tons of pressure on the Redskins, who are in last place in the NFC East at 7-6, a game behind second-place Dallas (8-5) and 1 ½ games behind the Eagles (7-5-1). The Redskins have found the sledding tough against the AFC North where they barely survived in Cleveland and got pummelled by the Steelers and Ravens. Plus, Washington suffered a slew of injuries against Baltimore. The Redskins' starting offensive tackles are out and they enter Week 15 in disarray. They should prevail tough but Cincy keeps it close. Take Bengals.

San Francisco at Miami (-6.5)

Last week: San Francisco beat NY Jets 24-14; Miami beat Buffalo 16-3.

Both teams are having good seasons considering the level of expectation that each had entering the year. For the 49ers, it started in Arizona in Week 10, where they lost 29-24, but competed hard throughout the game. Since then, they have won three of their last four games, losing only to the Cowboys. For the Dolphins, it started in Week 8 with their 25-16 win over the Buffalo Bills. Since that win, Miami has won five of their last six games, only losing to the Patriots at home. Both team's quarterbacks have been very pleasant surprises. Chad Pennington has been good all year, while Shaun Hill has separated himself from the 49ers quarterback competition with three games remaining. I know this is a West Coast team playing on the East Coast, but if Frank Gore is healthy, I like the 49ers chance for the upset. The Dolphins don't dominate teams, they grind out wins. Take 49ers.

Seattle at St-Louis (2.5)

Last week: Seattle lost to New England 24-21; St-Louis lost to Arizona 34-10.

This must be a tough time to get motivated for this yawner. Yes, people are physically attacking you on the field, where the fight or flight mechanism kicks in and fight wins over flight, but the preparation week must be a real grind. Seattle has lost six games in a row while St. Louis has lost seven games in a row. I like Seattle because they competed hard in their three point loss to the Patriots. The Rams have only scored 169 points this year after 13 games, which worked out to an unbelievably low 13 points per-game. This is a big pride game which I think the Seahawks has plenty of. Take Seahawks.

Buffalo at NY Jets (-6.5)

Last week: Buffalo lost to Miami 16-3; NY Jets lost to San Francisco 24-14.

The Jets get a favor from the schedule-maker this week. In need of a confidence boost, they welcome a visiting Buffalo team whose playoff hopes are almost nil after a very promising beginning. Eric Mangini's one-at-a-time hymn truly will be put to the test this week as the Jets will need to erase the painful memories of the past two weeks and remind themselves that they still will be playoff-bound if they win the last three games. Buffalo doesn't have enough on offense right now to exploit the Jets' defense, so New York gets a much-needed win. Take Jets.

Tennessee at Houston (2.5)

Last week: Tennessee beat Cleveland 28-9; Houston beat Green Bay 24-21.

The Texans are playing the best they've played all season, but the Titans are playing as well as they ever have as a franchise. The Titans are still targeting home-field advantage for the playoffs, so it's unlikely they will be starting to go into any sort of cruise control this early in December. With the crowd behind them, Houston should put up a fight, but ultimately the Titans should beat the Texans for the eighth straight time. Take Titans.

San Diego at Kansas City (4.5)

Last week: San Diego beat Oakland 34-7; Kansas City lost to Denver 24-17.

Except for one game against Buffalo in which they were minus-five in turnovers, the Chiefs have been competitive in the last seven games. It's remarkable they don't have more than one win in that stretch. But they are nowhere near as talented or as experienced as the Chargers, and those deficits should turn the tide in this one. The Chiefs will get some things done, at least on offense. But their weakness on defense will cost them against a strong offensive opponent. If Kansas City can't force multiple turnovers, it's difficult seeing the Chiefs prevailing. Take Chargers.

Minnesota at Arizona (-2.5)

Last week: Minnesota beat Detroit 20-16; Arizona beat St-Louis 34-10.

The Cardinals aren't going to run the ball on the Vikings, and I'm willing to concede that point right now. Minnesota is too good at destroying their opponents running games and the Cardinals don't have a back that's close to 1000 rushing yards, let alone 500. The Cardinals are 5-1 at home, though, and Kurt Warner is completing 68.7 percent of his passes. You also know that the Cardinals will overload the tackle box on defence by moving strong safety Adrian Wilson up. Wilson is one of the best unknown defensive backs in all of football, by the way. The Cardinals have won the NFC West, a weak division, but their next goal is a first round bye and 11-5 is the only way to reach it. Their quest begins with the Vikings. Take Cardinals.

New England at Oakland (6.5)

Last week: New England beat Seattle 24-21; Oakland lost to San Diego 34-7.

The Patriots are fighting for a division title and playoff spot. The Raiders have nothing left to play for except pride. Also, the Patriots figure to have a decided edge in the game-planning department, with the experienced Bill Belichick matched against the Raiders' Tom Cable, in his 10th game as an NFL head coach. Beyond that, the Patriots are more experienced, more talented and, most importantly, more in need of a victory. So, look for the Patriots to outplay the Raiders, leaving with a win and with their playoff aspirations intact. Look for the Raiders to reach 11 losses for a league-record sixth straight season. Take Patriots.

Cleveland at Philadelphia (-13.5)

Last week: Cleveland lost to Tennessee 28-9; Philadelphia beat NY Giants 20-14.

The margin between good teams and bad teams in the NFL is usually slim, so even though it appears the Eagles should win by three touchdowns, nothing is given. Still, the combination of Westbrook's rushing and the Eagles' aggressive defense should be enough to sink Cleveland, even if the Eagles don't play their best game. Take Eagles.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

By: Aengus Moorehead @ 17:38 | Category: Football  | Comments: 0 | Permalink

Week 14

December 3 2008 @ 19:16

Already a formidable task just picking a winning team against the spread, we now have the unenviable endeavour to select favorites which can actually win their games outright. It happened again last week where six favorites failed to show up. I name you Green Bay, Buffalo, San Diego, Oakland, New England and the Jets. Not only did these underachievers let us down, some of them failed miserably to even keep it close. Three other teams could have suffered the same faith- Tampa Bay, Miami and Indianapolis- but they were able to keep their heads over water, although they were unsuccessful in their attempts to cover.

Blue chips teams are a dime a dozen this season. Tennessee has been the best team so far this year with only one lost spread- when they lost to the Jets two weeks ago- and the Giants which only lost two.

MY RECORD AGAINST THE SPREAD

Last week: 10-6

Season: 99-93

Oakland at San Diego (-9.5)

Last week: Oakland lost to Kansas City 23-13; San Diego lost to Atlanta 22-16.

The Chargers have to win to keep alive their sliver-sized playoff hopes. Should they lose Thursday night and Denver wins Sunday, the Broncos would clinch the AFC West title. The Chargers are trying to remain optimistic. And they are also trying to keep alive a streak of 10 consecutive victories over the Raiders.

It sounds simple but, once again, the Raiders are searching for ways to score more than the occasional field goal and defensive or special teams touchdown. They just can't seem to keep drives going long enough to reach the end zone, or convert enough plays into positive yards once they near the goal line. It's hard to win when you can't count upon your offense to score more than a handful of points.

The Raiders could not slow down LaDainian Tomlinson in the first meeting as he rushed for a season-high 106 yards and two touchdowns in San Diego's 28-18 win on Sept. 28. Lately, though, the ineffectiveness of the reigning two-time NFL rushing champion has mirrored his team's struggles.

While problems running the ball have plagued a Chargers offense that's proficient through the air - Rivers leads the AFC with a 100.5 passer rating - the Raiders have been done in by the NFL's worst passing attack (139.5 yards per game).

JaMarcus Russell is the 28th-ranked passer and is not asked to do a lot, and there's a reason. He is inaccurate, having just got his completion percentage above 50.5 percent, and does not make good decisions. Russell attempted just 11 passes (10 completions) in the Raiders' victory over Denver, and he attempted 17 in one of their other two victories. The Raiders have not allowed a sack in two games, though that is just 39 passing attempts by Russell. Perhaps the biggest example that the Raiders don't ask him to do a lot is that he has completed passes to one wide receiver in each of the past four games.

It is thus imperative for the Chargers to put numbers on the board early and often. The Chargers have scored just 129 of their 290 points in the first half and have been outscored 124-79 in the second quarter. They have yet to score a touchdown on the first drive of the game and have scored before their opponent just three times.

The Chargers need this game for more than the fact it would keep alive their slim playoff hopes. They need to prove to themselves they can win big. Take Chargers.

Philadelphia at NY Giants (-7.5)

Last week: Philadelphia beat Arizona 48-20; NY Giants beat Washington 23-7.

With a victory this week, the Giants can clinch the NFC East title and lock up a bye in the first round of the playoffs. That's a big deal for a team that had its regular-season bye after only three games and will play 13 consecutive weeks heading into the postseason. A week off to rest and recover from a long season is what the Giants are aiming for and something they feel they'll need to hit the ground heading into the playoffs.

The Giants went out and dominated the Redskins in a 23-7 victory at FedEx Field to extend their winning streak to seven games and improve to 11-1 for the first time in franchise history. This game against the Eagles is usually highly competitive, as befitting two heavy rivals, and the 36-31 Giants victory back on Nov. 9 in Philadelphia ranks as one of the Giants' most exciting games of the season. Without Plaxico Burress, the Giants are 3-0 this season and his replacement, Domenik Hixon is a young receiver who is making great strides and playing at an extremely high level. Hixon had five receptions for 71 yards against the Redskins and now becomes a permanent fixture in the starting arrangement. Watching Hixon develop makes one wonder why the Broncos gave up on him early last season, as he's a sensational kick returner and certainly already a very competent pass-catcher.

The Giants effectively swarmed Brian Westbrook in the first gathering between these two this season, limiting him to an insignificant 26 yards on 13 carries. That's a familiar theme for the Giants, who completely dominated the league's leading rusher, Clinton Portis, holding him to 22 yards on 11 rushing attempts last week. Westbrook is probably more dangerous catching passes out of the backfield, but the Giants are very familiar with the Eagles' system and usually do a solid job keeping Westbrook from breaking off long gains in the passing game.

There's no way the Eagles will allow the Giants to devastate them on the ground the way they did in the first game, as the Giants piled on 219 rushing yards. Figure that extra attention will put an extra defender up near the line of scrimmage, daring Eli Manning to beat the Eagles through the air. Manning has been successful doing just that the past two games and the Giants protected him well the first time they faced the Eagles, with only one sack allowed.

The Giants are on a roll and it doesn't appear the Eagles have enough to stop them. But this is a heated divisional rivalry, the Eagles are coming off an impressive 48-20 thumping of the Cardinals on Thanksgiving Day, and they are desperately clinging to very slight playoff hopes. As long as the Giants stick to business on defense and don't get sloppy with Brian Westbrook, it may be asking too much of Donovan McNabb to beat the Giants with his arm. He threw three touchdown passes in the first meeting with the Giants, but consistency has been an issue all season. I am not going to go against the Giants here, but I am not too thrilled with the 7 ½ point spread for the home team. Giants win but barely. Take points and Eagles.

Atlanta at New Orleans (-2.5)

Last week: Atlanta beat San Diego 22-16; New Orleans lost to Tampa Bay 23-20.

The NFC South's surprising depth will be on display. Atlanta holds the conference's final wild-card spot while the underachieving Saints are clinging to slim playoff hopes. New Orleans, though, can be a dominant team, as it showed two weeks ago against the Packers. The Falcons beat New Orleans four weeks ago in Atlanta, but they must prove their determination on the road.

Saints quarterback Drew Brees is always worth watching. He's on pace to set the NFL record for passing yards in a season. He probably is out of the MVP race, however, after a rare poor performance at Tampa Bay. The Falcons have two worthy MVP candidates in rookie quarterback Matt Ryan and running back Michael Turner.

New Orleans might not be a serious playoff contender, but it has the league's No. 1 offense. Brees has thrown touchdown passes to 11 players. Running back Reggie Bush finally is back from a knee injury and should be more explosive after struggling at Tampa Bay.

Brees might be the NFL's best quarterback, but the Saints have no fallback option when he's off his game or defenses shut down the passing attack. Atlanta held Brees to 128 passing yards and zero touchdowns through three quarters in their first meeting; the Falcons got physical with receivers and disrupted their routes. They also brought consistent pressure with their front four, led by John Abraham. The Saints have two options in the rematch: Find more balance by establishing a run game for a change, or hope that Brees catches fire. Having Bush back as a safety valve should help.

Brees usually is great at avoiding pressure because he reads defenses so well and makes quick, accurate throws. He is the NFL's least-sacked quarterback since 2006. But he does need at least a few seconds to operate.

The home team has won every NFC South showdown, and the Saints are 4-1 in the Superdome. An Atlanta win would solidify the Falcons' status as a bona fide playoff contender. New Orleans finishes its regular season at home against Carolina. If the Saints can win Sunday and in Week 17, they can possibly stay in the playoff race, or at least play spoiler. Take Saints.

Dallas at Pittsburgh (-2.5)

Last week: Dallas beat Seattle 34-9; Pittsburgh beat New England 33-10.

At the very least, the matchup is intriguing because it matches two of the marquee teams in the league -- America's teams, if you will -- a pair of teams who have met in three Super Bowls, with the Steelers winning two. But history will serve merely as a backdrop for this game because the Cowboys (8-4) and Steelers (9-3) are among the current list of teams who could be considered legitimate candidates to make it to Super Bowl 43.

The Cowboys have won their past three games and have been rejuvenated offensively with QB Tony Romo returning from injury and WR Terrell Owens re-emerging. The Steelers have won three in a row and four of their past five and own the second-best record in the AFC. They also feature the league's No. 1 defense, both against the pass and the run.

What's more, the game will feature two of the best pass-rushing outside linebackers in the league -- DeMarcus Ware of the Cowboys, who leads the NFC with 15 sacks; and James Harrison of the Steelers, who has 14 sacks and six forced fumbles. The Steelers, though, have the league's No. 1 sack tandem -- Harrison and OLB LaMarr Woodley (11.5 sacks), who have combined for 25.5 sacks.

The Cowboys have one of the league's best big-play offenses, and it has returned now that Romo is back in the lineup and the broken pinkie that forced him to miss three games is feeling better. The Cowboys had nine plays of more than 10 yards in the first quarter last week against Seattle and 13, not including a 21-yard pass interference penalty, in the first half. Romo had completions of more than 30 yards to Owens, Jason Witten and Roy Williams that set up points. Pittsburgh has yielded only 15 pass plays of more than 20 yards this season, which ranks first in the league. Something has to give.

For a big, mobile quarterback, Ben Roethlisberger has been sacked 33 times this season, which seems like a lot for a guy who should be able to elude pressure. You can blame some of that on an injured offensive line that can't protect him the way it has in the past. The Steelers' defense isn't going to give up too many points, which means it's up to the Cowboys' defense to keep the score close. Dallas has 18 sacks in the past four games, including seven last week against Seattle. Keeping Roethlisberger hemmed up is the best way for Dallas to win the game.

A lot depends on the health of Ware and RB Marion Barber each of whom were injured against the Seahawks. If they are not able to play, especially Barber, that will take away two of the Cowboys' biggest threats.

At 8-4, Dallas has to keep winning to avoid the difficult three game road trip from wild card to divisional to conference games. They are a different football team with Tony Romo at quarterback. Take Cowboys.

Tampa Bay at Carolina (-2.5)

Last week: Tampa Bay beat New Orleans 23-20; Carolina beat Green Bay 35-31.

All this one's for is the NFC South title. Both teams enter 9-3, with Tampa Bay holding the tiebreaker edge for now based on thrashing the Panthers 27-3 on Oct. 12 in Tampa. That was the day everything broke down for the Panthers, starting with a punt block for a touchdown, and snowballing from there. But all phases of the Panthers plan took turns giving that one away. QB Jake Delhomme threw three interceptions, and they allowed Bucs veteran RB Warrick Dunn to rush for 115 yards -- their first triple-digit opponent of the year.

Meanwhile, Tampa cruised behind an efficient running game, and QB Jeff Garcia won his fifth straight start against Carolina, dating back to his days with San Francisco and Philadelphia.

Both defenses are fluctuating, as Tampa might be nearing the end of the Monte Kiffin era (if he heads to the University of Tennessee to join son Lane on the Volunteers staff), and the Panthers suddenly can't stop anyone (giving up 32.7 points per game over their last three).

But all the subplots will be pushed aside, as this one's almost as simple as it gets -- winner has the edge for the crown in what could be the most competitive division in the NFL.

The Bucs have fallen into a real bad inclination. For a while it was just their defense that was stumbling out of the gate. Last week the offense staggered as well, turning the ball over on its first possession and allowing the Saints to take a 3-0 lead. The Bucs have done a tremendous job of rallying from behind this year. They are a remarkable 6-1 in games in which they allow the first score, but they are clearly tempting fate. The best way to win in this league is to take an early lead and build on it. The Bucs are good enough to do that.

RB Cadillac Williams looks like he's finding his groove. He's still not in rev-mode condition but he's displaying some explosiveness through the hole and getting a better feel for cutbacks and redirections. The Bucs are starting to turn to him more and more in short-yardage and goal-line situations but they shouldn't limit his potential proficiency. He seems strong enough to handle a great workload than he's been given and if he proves to be an effective ground gainer then the Bucs should consider leaning on him. Williams is a very capable back and with the Panthers struggling to slow runners because of poor tackling he could break free.

The Panthers once-trusty back seven has sprung leaks lately, allowing big plays at an alarming rate. Garcia's always given them fits, as his accuracy on the move is tough for a team that relies on its front seven for pressure. If the secondary doesn't improve, he could have another field day.

The Panthers are a perfect 6-0 at home this year, and really want some payback after being humiliated the last time they saw the Bucs. Tampa has spoiled late-season plans before (winning in Charlotte in 2005), and there will be no excuse for the Panthers not being up for this one. Their defense in particular has something to prove, after an awful stretch of games.

Tampa's playing better football right now, but it will be interesting to see how injuries on the defensive line (DE Gaines Adams, DT Jovan Haye) impact the Bucs ability to stop the run. That's the key to the Panthers having a chance in this one, as their passing game needs oil after not doing much since the bye week. Normally, this is the kind of game which becomes a defensive war, and the way the Bucs are playing right now, it's unclear if the Panthers want any part of that. But as in most of these meetings, it'll likely rest on an emotional swing, and the Panthers have the slightest edge there after having their noses rubbed in it earlier this season. Take Panthers.

Cincinnati at Indianapolis (-13.5)

Last week: Cincinnati lost to Baltimore 34-3; Indianapolis beat Cleveland 10-6.

The Colts are working on a five-game winning streak, and have tied a league record by winning all five by six points or fewer. The high-wire act ends on Sunday in Lucas Oil Stadium. The Bengals are banged up and looking for the season to end. The Colts are dealing with injuries of their own, but are trying to maintain momentum heading into the playoffs. It's hard to imagine the Bengals keeping this one close. Take Colts.

Jacksonville at Chicago (-6.5)

Last week: Jacksonville lost to Houston 30-17; Chicago lost to Minnesota 34-14.

For all the problems the Bears have had recently, they've been pretty good out of the gate, scoring on their opening possession in seven of the last 10 games. If they jump on the Jaguars, Jacksonville is likely to go away. The Jags are a disappointing team in disarray, and when a struggling team gets down, it stays down. The Bears need a shot of confidence, and a quick score will work wonders. Take Bears.

Houston at Green Bay (-5.5)

Last week: Houston beat Jacksonville 30-17; Green Bay lost to Carolina 35-31.

You had to be impressed by the Texans on Monday night against the Jaguars. The opening drive for a touchdown, the play of WR Andre Johnson and RB Steve Slaton on offence as well as the dominance of Mario Williams on defense was mighty impressive. Houston is a pretty competent squad at 5-7. Meanwhile, the enigmatic Packers are in a rut, they definitely lack consistency on both sides of the ball. Indeed, after bludgeoning the Bears three weeks ago, they were feasted on by the Saints and Panthers allowing a combined 86 points in the process. I like Houston in this game. They are the NFL's youngest team and Lambeau Field in December is no reason why they should not play with emotion and energy. Take Texans.

Cleveland at Tennessee (-13.5)

Last week: Cleveland lost to Indianapolis 10-6; Tennessee beat Detroit 47-10.

The Browns played the Colts pretty tough last week, holding Peyton Manning's offence to only three points. The other seven points scored by the Colts last week was from a defensive touchdown. The Titans should be favoured by a couple of touchdowns. First, they are coming off an easy, and impressive, win against the Lions and with only four weeks to go in the regular season, having a weekend off is exceptionally reinvigorating. You also know the Titans game plan will be to overload every running lane, forcing third string quarterback Ken Dorsey to beat them in the air, which won’t happen. Take Titans.

Minnesota at Detroit (9.5)

Last week: Minnesota beat Chicago 34-14; Detroit lost to Tennessee 47-10.

It all comes down to Adrian Peterson and how much the Vikings are willing to ride him. Peterson had a hushed 111 rushing yards in the first game, partly because he coughed up the ball twice in Detroit territory, once at the 1-yard line. The Lions are starting to look like a team that is no longer as willing to stick their nose into the action and Detroit's best hope to win this game might be if Vikings coach Brad Childress plays it conservative and allows the Lions to stay in the game. Even that, though, probably won't be enough help. Take Vikings.

Washington at Baltimore (-5.5)

Last week: Washington lost to NY Giants 23-7; Baltimore beat Cincinnati 34-3.

The Ravens are too physical for the Redskins up front, and Baltimore will be able to run the ball. The Redskins seem to be in decline while the Ravens are starting to peak. It will be a tough, physical game and the Redskins will be in it until the fourth quarter. But the Ravens' physical style, especially on defense, will wear Washington down and the Ravens should prevail but the Redskins keep it close. Take Redskins.

NY Jets at San Francisco (3.5)

Last week: NY Jets lost to Denver 34-17; San Francisco beat Buffalo 10-3.

I think you will see a much better Jets team than the one that lost to Denver 34-17. Denver can really score some points. Their perimeter talent is excellent and Denver can go touchdown for touchdown with any team in the league. Also, the Jets were due for a let down. They beat the Titans, Patriots, Rams, Bills and Chiefs. They beat the best in their division as well as the AFC. You could almost see the letdown coming. While the 49ers only scored 10 points last week, they did break the 0-16 record that West coast teams have when they travel to the East, but outside of the opening touchdown on the opening drive, that was it for offensive significance. Take Jets.

Miami at Buffalo (-1.5)

Last week: Miami beat St-Louis 16-12; Buffalo lost to San Francisco 10-3.

It's now or never for the Bills, who have no more room for error after their inexplicable loss to San Francisco. If the Bills are not already out of the playoff race, it feels like they are -- they will be if they fall to the Dolphins. On the other hand, the Dolphins continue to confound the experts. Just one year after going 1-15, they are very much in the postseason hunt. But in such a tightly bunched race, the Dolphins can't afford a letdown now. They have won their last two road games, so playing on foreign soil won't bother them. The Bills would rather have this important game at Ralph Wilson Stadium, but they desperately need a win and it doesn't matter where they get it at this point. Take Bills.

Kansas City at Denver (-8.5)

Last week: Kansas City beat Oakland 23-13; Denver beat NY Jets 34-17.

The Broncos are cataleptic from week to week. They win big games on the road vs. top teams. They lose at home to suspect opponents. They turn the ball over in bunches one week, play it safe the next. This one won't be easy. Kansas City defensive coordinator Gunther Cunningham is adroit at disrupting Denver's offensive schemes through the years. And the Chiefs have really played only one poor game over the last five weeks, against Buffalo. But Denver felt it should have won at Arrowhead if it had been more careful with the ball. And the stakes could include a chance at the division title with a victory. The Broncos won't take this one lightly. Take Broncos.

St-Louis at Arizona (-13.5)

Last week: St-Louis lost to Miami 16-12; Arizona lost to Philadelphia 48-20.

The Cardinals usually play better at home, the Rams are awful, and the division title is on the line. It's hard to see how the Rams win this one, unless Warner has a terrible day and commits a handful of turnovers. That's possible away from the Phoenix sun, although not likely at home. The Cardinals should win this one handily. Take Cardinals.

New England at Seattle (4.5)

Last week: New England lost to Pittsburgh 33-10; Seattle lost to Dallas 34-9.

The Patriots were embarrassed at home by the Steelers, and are looking to get even with someone. The Seahawks have been embarrassed at home this season by, in order, the 49ers, Packers, Eagles, Cardinals and Redskins. The Patriots still have something to play for. The Seahawks are simply playing out what has been a dismal final season for Coach Mike Holmgren. This one appears to be no different than the rest: The Seahawks will have problems defending the Patriots' passing game; the Patriots defense will slam the door on a suddenly dysfunctional running game then pressure Hasselbeck into making some poor throws (six interceptions in the past three games). The Patriots do not lose two games in a row. Take Patriots.

By: Aengus Moorehead @ 19:16 | Category: Football  | Comments: 0 | Permalink