Week 12

November 25 2009 @ 20:30

Greetings Lasses and Lads. Happy Thanksgiving to all.

My upset of the week: Jaguars (+3.5) at 49ers.

My no-brainer of the week: Bears (+9.5) at Vikings.

My record against the spread:

Last week: 6-10.

Season: 82-78.

 
Green Bay at Detroit (-9.5)

Last week: Packers beat 49ers 30-24; Lions beat Browns 38-37.

This game will likely turn into a game of chicken -- can the Detroit blitz get to Packers QB Aaron Rodgers before Rodgers gets to Detroit's undermanned and overmatched secondary. The Lions have no choice but to blitz the Packers heavily because they can't get a push with just the front four. The Lions failed to get to Cleveland's Brady Quinn last week, and he threw four TD passes. If the Lions can't pressure Rodgers, he'll toy with a perfect passer rating.

Lions QB Daunte Culpepper, who is expected to start for the injured Matthew Stafford, is playing for his career. Culpepper still yearns to start in the league, and the soon-to-be free agent wants to show other teams that he still has what it takes. Culpepper still has the physical skills, including mobility and arm strength, but he has to convince personnel people that he can make good decisions with consistency.

The Lions will come out with a wave of energy to start the game, and the Packers will have to match or withstand it. The visiting team tends to wear out first in games played in a short week, and it will be vital not to trail early. One of the keys to doing that is establishing the run and keeping the crowd quiet. A couple of long drives to start out the game will calm down the Lions' fans.

While the Lions aren't a very good team, they have some impressive young talent, and TE Brandon Pettigrew is quickly establishing himself as a real weapon. A physical blocker, he's also becoming a force as a receiver who can muscle for yards after the catch and move the chains. When he gets more consistency in his overall game, he's going to be a matchup nightmare for defensive coordinators.

With Al Harris out and Charles Woodson playing a plethora of positions, Green Bay coaches will have to find a way to protect new starting corner Tramon Williams and new nickel back Jarrett Bush. That probably means playing a lot of cover 2 if they don't plan to move Woodson around in blitz situations. Playing cover 2 reduces the creativity in the Packers' blitz package, but it's better than giving up a bunch of big plays.

If the Lions are going to have a chance to win, they have to avoid Woodson, who feasts on Detroit quarterbacks. Woodson can't cover the long ball like he used to, but he's a hawk in the short zones and an expert at baiting quarterbacks who think they have a soft read. Woodson already has five picks this season, and he'll have a chance for more because the Lions will have to throw a great deal to keep pace.

Backup running back Brandon Jackson was effective last week on third down by showing a good knack for working the screen pass, something that has been missing all season. Opponents are coming hard after Aaron Rodgers because of all the sacks the team has allowed, so it is crucial to run successful screens. Jackson isn't a breakaway threat, but he runs hard and usually leans forward for a couple of extra yards. He's a good complement to starter Ryan Grant.

Lion RB Kevin Smith's rushing numbers aren't always impressive, but he continues to make valuable contributions as a receiver out of the backfield. He's comfortable running routes downfield, including up the seam. Though he doesn't have great speed, he's elusive in the open field and knows how to work his blockers.

The Packers dominated the Lions 26-0 in the first meeting, and the game wasn't even that close. Green Bay simply has too much offensive firepower, and Detroit is too banged up on offense to match them. The Lions are giving up 30 points per game and surrendered 37 points to the Browns, who had scored a total of 29 points in their previous five games combined. And the Lions are catching the Packers at a bad time -- after losing two straight games, Green Bay has won its last two and needs to keep rolling to keep their playoff hopes alive. Take Packers.

Oakland at Dallas (-13.5)

Last week: Raiders beat Bengals 20-17; Cowboys beat Redskins 7-6.

Remember when this used to be a battle between two of the league's best franchises? The Raiders with their Commitment to Excellence against the Cowboys, dubbed America's Team by NFL Films.

These days, the Raiders have been one of the league's worst teams since a Super Bowl appearance in 2002, while the Cowboys haven't won a playoff game since 1996.

That said, this game between storied NFL franchises is a much bigger contest for Dallas than Oakland.

A win and the Cowboys will be 8-3 and alone in first place in the NFC East entering December, which has been a month of horrors for them. More important, they will be positioned to make the playoffs and end their wretched 12-year streak without a postseason win after missing the playoffs in 2008.

The Raiders are already playing for pride this season, though quarterback Bruce Gradkowski makes them a much more difficult opponent. He led Oakland to a win last week in his first game as a starter, replacing ineffective JaMarcus Russell, the former No.1 pick overall.

The Cowboys have their own issues on offense, scoring only two touchdowns in the past two weeks. The Raiders won't score many points — no matter who's playing quarterback — but their defense is playing pretty well these days.

Cowboys' offensive coordinator Jason Garrett is still searching for his team's identity. This would be a good week to find it.

The Raiders rank 30th in the NFL against the run, yielding 157.7 yards per game. The Cowboys are the second-most efficient team running the ball at 5 yards a pop. The Raiders must free up at least one defender — most likely strong safety Tyvon Branch — to help against the run so the Cowboys don't dictate the tempo of the game from the outset.

 Russell lost his starting job because of his inability to get the ball to his wide receivers on a consistent basis.  Gradkowski did a nice job last week against the Bengals, and he must continue that success against a pair of cornerbacks — Mike Jenkins and Terence Newman — adept in tight man-to-man coverage.

This Raiders team isn't accustomed to playing on national TV with so much attention focused upon them. They must ignore the fact they are playing in a new stadium, on Thanksgiving Day and on national TV and just stick to their routine, as if they are playing a home game.

Just a few weeks ago, the Cowboys were using a overabundance of big plays from a variety of players to score points at a rapid pace. Now, they can hardly score at all. The Cowboys have entered the fourth quarter of each of the last two games with zero points and are fortunate to be 1-1 in those games. In the past two games, Dallas has just two touchdowns in 22 possessions with 12 punts. Part of the reason is they're not getting big plays. They had just four two plays of 20-plus yards against Washington and Green Bay the last two weeks. The Cowboys rank among the league leaders in offensive penalties and struggle to consistently drive the length of the field.

There are a few times in every game when the quarterback gets the right play against the right coverage. When it happens, the quarterback must connect. Tony Romo hasn't been doing that. He is completing only 60 percent of his passes, and his percentage has dropped each of the past four seasons. Of quarterbacks who have thrown at least 300 passes, only Atlanta's Matt Ryan (59.3) and Detroit's Matthew Stafford (55.2) have a lower completion percentage. Romo's 61 poor throws ranks second in the NFL. The Cowboys need him to be more accurate and hit receivers in stride, especially since their offense is struggling.

The Raiders are going to have a tough time winning Thursday if they convert just 27.9 percent of their third downs against the Cowboys. The Raiders rank 30th in the NFL in third-down conversions. Again, that's an area where they should improve with Gradkowski at quarterback instead of Russell. The Cowboys' defense has played well on third down much of this season but struggled against Washington last week in a 7-6 victory, allowing the Redskins to convert 7-of-15 third downs.

The Raiders are at a significant disadvantage, having to travel from the west coast to Dallas on a short week. Add to that an abject offense and it's hard to see how the Raiders win this game, considering Dallas' defense is playing at a high level. However, the Raiders will keep matters close. Take points and Raiders.

NY Giants at Denver (+6.5)

Last week: Giants beat Falcons 34-31; Broncos lost to Chargers 32-3.

The best Thanksgiving matchup is the finale, with a couple of teams in the playoff hunt trying to figure out how to return to the level they were at in September and early October.

The Giants at least got a win and a little bit of confidence last week. They beat Atlanta in overtime to snap a four-game losing streak, and another win could keep them heading in a positive direction. The NFC East is bunched up, with Dallas leading Philadelphia and the Giants by a game.

The AFC West is separated by a game as well, but the Broncos are fading fast. They have lost four in a row and are coming off a devastating 32-3 loss to San Diego, a team Denver handled on the road a month ago. Frustration is starting to become apparent. During the Chargers game, receiver Brandon Marshall and running back Knowshon Moreno had words on the sideline after a Moreno goal line fumble, and Moreno shoved Marshall. The Broncos could fall out of the AFC West race fast if they don't pick up a win soon.

Both teams might be flawed, but Thursday's result might go a long way in determining which one stays relevant through December.

In their last two games, the Giants' defense has allowed the opponent to march down the field for a touchdown in the final minute. The first collapse led to a loss and the second forced overtime. If the Giants don't find a way to cover downfield, they will find it difficult to be a serious playoff contender. Safeties Michael Johnson and Aaron Rouse have to locate the ball in the air, and there needs to be fewer communication breakdowns -- a problem that has cost the Giants in several games.

Pass-catching tight ends pose huge problems to the Giants, who often struggle in coverage. Michael Boley is the best coverage option among the linebackers, but he could not contain Tony Gonzalez last week. There is no safety on the roster who excels at covering tight ends, so the game plan may have to call for a cornerback such as Terrell Thomas to cover Tony Scheffler, who is a threat.

The best news for the Broncos on Sunday -- and perhaps the only bit of good news -- was that Kyle Orton didn't reaggravate his left ankle injury. He gave the Broncos a spark off the bench, and he obviously gives the team its best chance to win. Denver needs to protect Orton and construct a game plan that doesn't ask him to be too mobile.

The Broncos have had good success running to the outside lately, especially with Moreno. Moreno averaged eight yards a carry against San Diego. The problem was Denver fell behind, and Moreno had only 10 carries. Denver needs to keep the game close so it can keep feeding the ball to its rookie tailback. That also will help keep a beleaguered defense off the field.

A month ago, the Broncos were the top-ranked defense in the NFL and wouldn't have been concerned about facing a top running team like the Giants. A lot has changed since then. Denver isn't getting the same push up front, and teams are running the ball well against the Broncos. San Diego broke the 200-yard mark on the ground last week. The Giants will pound the ball the entire game if the Broncos don't match their physical style.

The biggest advantage the Broncos have in this matchup is not having to travel in the short week. New York gets little time to prepare and then has to fly over two time zones for a Thanksgiving game. Still, one has to wonder if the Broncos can take advantage. So many things that worked early in the season for Denver have become problems, and they are coming off an emotional loss to San Diego. The Broncos will be healthier at quarterback than last week, but the Giants are coming off a key win and are probably the better team at this point…barely. Take points and Broncos.

Pittsburgh at Baltimore (-2.5)

Last week: Steelers lost to Chiefs 27-24; Ravens lost to Colts 17-15.

The Ravens would like to break the Steelers' dominance in the series. Pittsburgh has an 18-10 advantage, including three wins last season, one of those in the AFC championship. In all three games, the Ravens had chances to win but couldn't make the big plays at the end. The Ravens like to say this is a rivalry, but it has been very one-sided in recent years.

The Ravens would never admit it, but their quarterback, Joe Flacco, is a facsimile of Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger. Both are big, strong QBs with limited mobility but elusiveness. Both came from small colleges, and both are fairly accurate. But in their three matchups last season, Flacco played his worst games of the year. In contrast, Roethlisberger made big plays in the fourth quarter of each game to lead the Steelers to victory. Also, Big Ben has a couple of Super Bowl rings, and Big Joe doesn't have any yet.

Unless Cincinnati chokes down the stretch, which is always a possibility, Baltimore and Pittsburgh are top contenders for a wild-card playoff berth. Pittsburgh has a one-game advantage over the Ravens, but they face each other twice in the remaining six games. Other wild-card contenders, such as Houston and Jacksonville, might fade, but both the Steelers and the Ravens are sound teams. Unfortunately, one might knock the other out of contention.

The Steelers already have allowed more pass plays of 40 yards or longer (four) than they did all of last season, including two in the final 16 minutes against the Chiefs. The Ravens are not a deep-strike team and lack a vertical passing attack. But Flacco has the arm strength to challenge their two-deep coverage.

One of Roethlisberger's top priorities will be knowing where All-Pro safety Ed Reed is at all times on the field. It is something he has been aware of over the years, and Reed did not have an interception against the Steelers last year, including the playoffs.

Roethlisberger has been a Ravens killer, especially with late-game heroics. He can make plays with his arm or his legs, and he is a master at improvising. Roethlisberger is hard to bring down, so the Ravens are emphasizing staying with their man in pass coverage until they hear a whistle. The Ravens also want to attack Roethlisberger's right arm when they tackle. Because of his strength, Roethlisberger can carry tacklers and still throw the ball.

Pittsburgh wide receiver Hines Ward always gets under the skin of the Ravens. Ward can make big plays, but he has also delivered some killer blocking shots to the Ravens. Some of them are borderline dirty, but Ward never gets penalized. He irritates the Ravens so much that he can get them out of their game, particularly members of the secondary. The Ravens have to keep a lid on Ward, both on the field and in the trash-talking department.

On special teams, long returns have become a disturbing trend for the Steelers, who have allowed a special teams or defensive touchdown in each of their past eight games. What is especially troublesome is their horrid kickoff-coverage unit, which has allowed a touchdown return in four of their past five games.

Teams that have gotten a strong pass rush from their front four and played two-deep coverage have had great success against Flacco. Why? When teams drop seven players into coverage, Flacco has to make more reads, and he hasn't adjusted well. Flacco plays better when the Ravens run a no-huddle because he has to make quick reads, and sometimes the other team can't get their personnel on the field. So the Steelers will try to get a strong pass rush with the front four. It worked well against the Ravens last season in the conference championship game, and you can bet Flacco will see it again Sunday.

In the past, the Ravens have been a tough, physical team, but they've had problems winning against teams with a similar style. The Steelers play with great intensity that Baltimore might not be able to match. Roethlisberger was bothered by a concussion last week in Kansas City, but he should be healthy against the Ravens. If Roethlisberger plays with no side effects, he'll lead Pittsburgh to another victory but the jury is still out that. Take Ravens.

New England at New Orleans (-2.5)

Last week: Patriots beat Jets 31-14; Saints beat Buccaneers 38-7.

The atmosphere in the Superdome should be incredible for one of the most anticipated games ever played in New Orleans. The Saints are a perfect 10-0, and a victory over New England would solidify their status as an elite team and a bona fide Super Bowl favorite. So far, the Saints' most impressive win of the year was against the New York Giants in the Superdome in Week 6, but the Giants have fallen back to the pack a bit since then.

The Patriots (7-3) aren't having their best season, but they remain an elite, proven team with a dynamic offense. And New England will also be trying to protect its status as the only 16-0 team in NFL history -- much like the Miami Dolphins, who protected their perfect reputation on Monday Night Football in 1985 by handing the '85 Chicago Bears their only loss.

The Patriots are still trying to spit out the bad taste from their Week 10 loss at Indianapolis, when they let the Colts come from behind for a last-minute victory (following Coach Bill Belichick's infamous fourth-and-2 decision). They came back with a commanding performance last week, routing the New York Jets, 31-14, and will try to keep rolling through New Orleans. The Patriots started the season slowly, with quarterback Tom Brady shaking off the rust from his 2008 knee injury. But they still loom as a bona fide contender themselves.

There should be plenty of offensive firepower from both teams, who have the top two offenses in the NFL. The Saints average 420.5 yards per game, the Patriots 416.1. New Orleans averages a league-high 36.9 points per game; New England is third at 29.0. And both teams' defenses have been a little more vulnerable than they'd like recently. The Saints' rebuilt secondary has been depleted by injuries, and they may be without their top three cornerbacks on Monday night, not great timing with Brady, Randy Moss and Wes Welker coming to town.

New Orleans' defense has shown it will give up yards -- it is ranked 17th in the league in yards allowed -- so it won't flat-out shut down the Patriots' offense. But if Brady throws it into the hands of safety Darren Sharper or his opportunistic teammates, it spells trouble for the Pats. The Saints have five defensive touchdowns. Brady has four picks in his last four games, which isn't terrible, but he must avoid throwing into traffic.

 Drew Brees has the Saints' offense clicking and will provide the Patriots with a challenge comparable to the one they faced at Indianapolis. Everyone is a weapon, and with a league-leading 40 receptions of 20 yards or more, the completions come in big chunks. Cornerbacks Leigh Bodden and Jonathan Wilhite and their colleagues must make the Saints earn every inch. They have to keep everything in front of them.

The Patriots have three losses because they had three second half letdowns. The Jets (in Week 2), the Broncos and the Colts all benefited from the Pats' mental lapses. There is no doubt the Saints' offense can score in a hurry, so if the Patriots jump out to a big lead, they must remain focused and stay the course. If they leave any opening, the Saints and their frenzied crowd will take advantage of it.

Against the dangerous Patriots, the Saints have to be sound in the secondary no matter who plays. Starting cornerback Tracy Porter (knee) is out, starting corner Jabari Greer (groin) will be questionable and No. 3 corner Randall Gay (hamstring) will be questionable. That leaves rookie Malcolm Jenkins, backup Usama Young and two veterans just plucked out of semi-retirement: Chris McAlister and Mike McKenzie. Look for defensive coordinator Gregg Williams to use a variety of formations and blitzes that protect the back end of his defense.

The Saints were sloppy over a four-game stretch from Weeks 7-10, as a combined 13 turnovers made their games too close for comfort. They cleaned things up last week, winning the turnover battle 4-0 in a rout at Tampa Bay. They need to be just as protective with the ball Monday night in a game where every possession will count and short fields will be capitalized on.

Drew Brees has been establishing himself as the third member of the elite QB class, just behind Peyton Manning and Tom Brady. But he needs to prove it in this matchup. Brees reads defenses brilliantly, he's accurate, and he has great rapport with his receivers. But he has had some sluggish stretches and threw seven picks between Weeks 7-10. He needs to be at his best against the Patriots, who have a decent but not dominant pass defense.

This matchup looks awfully difficult for the Saints, who have been flirting with their first loss for much of the last month and now have a depleted secondary. But in their recent past, the Saints have stepped up and played their best football in these types of showdowns -- when they feel like they have something to prove on a big stage.

 Their most impressive performance of the year came against the Giants in Week 6 when both teams were undefeated. Last year, they routed the Green Bay Packers on Monday Night Football, rolling up 51 points. In 2006, they dominated the Cowboys in a late-season game at Dallas to prove they were a serious contender. They'll be plenty motivated to shine in this game, and the atmosphere in the Dome will be electric. Although I prefer passion over experience, the Patriots will show that the latter still produces winners. Take Patriots.

Tampa Bay at Atlanta (-11.5)

Last week: Buccaneers lost to Saints 38-7; Falcons lost to Giants 34-31.

After forcing the Giants to overtime last week, the Falcons don't need any more moral victories. WR Roddy White summed it up when he stated the playoffs start now for the Falcons, who have kicked away their best start in five seasons.

The offense has to figure that it will be in shootouts until the problems in the secondary are corrected. If the Falcons can blend in a running attack with a Ryan-to-White-and-Gonzalez passing attack, they should be able to put up enough points to mask that leaky secondary for one week. Take Falcons.

Miami at Buffalo (+2.5)

Last week: Dolphins beat Panthers 24-17; Bills lost to Jaguars 18-15.

The Dolphins have the momentum and plenty of incentive to play well. This is not a super talented team, but they are well coached and win games by being more physical than their opponent. The Bills' 3-7 record is a reflection of how frustrating their season has been. But things could have been a whole lot different if they knew how to finish games.

In eight of the Bills' 10 games, they have gone into the fourth quarter either tied or with the lead. They lost five of those games, including the last three. The offense deserves most of the blame because it has scored 20 points just once in the past eight games. As tough as the Dolphins play, it's hard to pick the Bills until their offense proves it can do more than display the occasional flash. Take Dolphins.

Cleveland at Cincinnati (-13.5)

Last week: Browns lost to Lions 38-37; Bengals lost to Raiders 20-17.

The Bengals learned a brutal and painful lesson last week, walking into the Raiders' trap at Oakland and getting ambushed by an unfamiliar AFC West opponent. If you don't come prepared to play a full 60 minutes, you'll get bruised, battered, bloodied and beaten.

They received their wakeup call, and they'll play with a much greater sense of urgency at home against the struggling Browns, whose coach, Eric Mangini, is clinging to his job by a thread. The Bengals have a tendency of letting up after getting ahead. In this game, they must place their hands on Cleveland's throat and not forget to squeeze. Take Bengals.

Indianapolis at Houston (+3.5)

Last week: Colts beat Ravens 17-15; Texans lost to Titans 20-17.

Though undefeated, the Colts are coming off four games decided by four points or fewer, so they're due for a loss. But the Texans are coming off a devastating Monday night loss to Tennessee. Houston has lost three games at home, more than in each of the last two seasons.

And there's no way the Texans will shut down Manning. If they do pull off an upset, it should be a close game. That means K Chris Brown has to get over the yips, regain his confidence and resume making the kind of clutch field goals he's made over the last seven years but curing the yips takes time. Colts win and will finally cover. Take Colts.

Chicago at Minnesota (+9.5)

Last week: Bears lost to Eagles 24-20; Vikings beat Seahawks 35-9.

The Vikings are coming off their most complete game of the season, a 35-9 dismantling of Seattle at home. They will finish a three-game home stand against Chicago hoping to get another easy win before its Sunday night matchup at Arizona.

QB Jay Cutler might have to put together his best game of the season for the Bears to have a chance to win on the road against a Vikings team that's 5-0 at home this season. But that's asking too much, given Cutler's erratic performances. Take Vikings.

Carolina at NY Jets (-2.5)

Last week: Panthers lost to Dolphins 24-17; Jets lost to Patriots 31-14.

Desperate doesn't begin to describe the mindset of both teams in this game, and Carolina does have three extra days to plot and plan after losing to Miami on a Thursday night. But even though Jake Delhomme has been taking much better care of the ball recently, the Panthers' offense doesn't scare anyone, at least inside the 20-yard line.

Mark Sanchez bounced back from his five-interception meltdown against Buffalo with two consecutive turnover-free games, so there's no reason he can't correct some of his mistakes here. As has been their custom this season, Carolina makes some plays, but not enough of them when it matters but they’re playing the Jets. Take Panthers.

Washington at Philadelphia (-8.5)

Last week: Redskins lost to Cowboys 7-6; Eagles beat Bears 24-20.

The Redskins have played a couple of good games recently. First was the win over the Broncos at home followed by a tough loss to the Cowboys, in a game they took deep into the fourth quarter. The thought lingers as to how much have the Redskins improved during that short span? Not enough to beat the Eagles at home.

The Eagles do have a tendency to implode now and then and if it was not for Jay Cutler’s inaccuracy Sunday night, the Bears could have won that game.

Albeit, this caper is a divisional game and those are often won in the trenches and are typically close affairs. Take points and Redskins.

Seattle at St-Louis (+2.5)

Last week: Seahawks lost to Vikings 35-9; Rams lost to Cardinals 21-13.

Reminiscent of their play at the end of the 2008 season, the Rams are coming close but haven't been able to finish out games. They've lost four times by eight points or fewer, including three times in their past five outings. The Seawhawks represent the Rams' best remaining chance to get a victory, something they have done six times in the past 42 games.

A loss Sunday to Seattle and the Rams tie their franchise record for most consecutive home losses. It won't happen. Kyle Boller is a high-energy player who seems to get his teammates fired up. His mobility will help keep plays alive when the protection breaks down, and his arm strength will help the Rams connect on a couple of deep passes; add Steven Jackson to the mix and the Rams get their second win. Take Rams.

Arizona at Tennessee (-2.5)

Last week: Cardinals beat Rams 21-13; Titans beat Texans 20-17.

The Titans are suddenly finding ways to win, and they'll be especially jacked up coming off of their fourth straight win. Against the Cardinals, look for RB Chris Johnson to rip off at least one big run in another big game.

The Titans will surrender some yards to the Cardinals but those will come from probable starter Matt Leinart as Kurt Warner may sit this one out with a concussion he suffered last week.

While the Cardinals at 5-0 away from home may prove to be a stern test for the Titans, the sudden resurgence of QB Vince Young coupled with posse Johnson and emerging star receiver Kenny Britt will allow the birds to point a finger at a culprit for their eventual defeat. Take Titans.

Kansas City at San Diego (-13.5)

Last week: Chiefs beat Steelers 27-24; Chargers beat Broncos 32-3.

This game is the proverbial trap, despite the warning signs that the Chiefs should not be taken lightly. The Chargers have a lot to deal with this week, including cornerback Antonio Cromartie's implication in a Monday morning bar fight, a charity event on Tuesday and downtown celebration of the team's 50th anniversary on Friday.

The Chargers have in the past been prone to believing their own hype, but this seems to be a focused group intent on finally being the one that lives up to the billing. They are playing better seemingly every week but not enough to win by two TD’s. Take points and Chiefs.

Jacksonville at San Francisco (-3.5)

Last week: Jaguars beat Bills 18-15; 49ers lost to Packers 30-24.

Sunday's matchup features two teams led by former NFL linebackers. As you would expect, each coach, Jack Del Rio and Mike Singletary, points to solid defense and physical offense as the formula for success.

Del Rio's Jaguars, however, have been closer to the mark in recent weeks. Singletary and the 49ers were let down by their defense Sunday and are still trying to pin down an offensive philosophy. Look for the Jaguars, who have the league's sixth-ranked rushing offense and a good shot at a wild-card spot, to win a close game. Take Jaguars.

 

 

 

 

By: Aengus Moorehead @ 20:30 | Category: Football  | Comments: 0 | Permalink

Week 11

November 19 2009 @ 18:01

Greetings Lasses and Lads.

My upset of the week: 49ers (+6.5) at Packers.

My no-brainer of the week: Steelers (-9.5) at Chiefs.

MY RECORD AGAINST THE SPREAD:

Last week: 8-7.

Season: 76-68.

Miami at Carolina (-2.5)

Last week: Dolphins beat Buccaneer 25-23; Panthers beat Falcons 28-19.

On the surface, a short-week matchup between two hurting 4-5 teams might not sound like much, but there's plenty of under-the-surface intrigue.

First off, the Dolphins offense might have a little extra motivation this week even without RB Ronnie Brown (ankle), since offensive coordinator Dan Henning was fired by Panthers coach John Fox after the 2006 season, despite a five-year run that included a trip to the Super Bowl and two NFC championship games. Since then, Henning's dipped into the bag of tricks to run the Dolphins Wildcat, and the Panthers rush defense has been leaky lately.

The big question is how effective the Wildcat will be without Brown. On one hand, the Dolphins will be without their most dynamic player. But that presents a challenge for the Panthers since it's uncertain how Miami will use Ricky Williams and/or Pat White in the backfield.

Henning's presence in Miami also could make it an interesting night for Panthers QB Jake Delhomme. Delhomme has played three clean games after throwing 13 interceptions in the first six, but Henning knows his game inside out, having groomed him from career backup to serviceable starter.

The Panthers are trying to continue a three-week stretch of solid play but hope to end the string of key losses to injury. LB Thomas Davis and LT Jordan Gross were each lost for the season the last two games, leaving the Panthers scrambling to fill holes. LB Landon Johnson played capably last week, but losing Gross causes Carolina to overturn its entire line, as LG Travelle Wharton kicks outside and they bring in young Mackenzy Bernadeau to play guard.

The resurgence of Ricky Williams has quietly been one of the NFL's most compelling stories this season. Partly because he's in a backup role to Ronnie Brown -- and partly because he avoids the media as much as possible -- Williams' 5.3 yards per carry this year have gone mostly unnoticed. That could change Thursday, when Williams will start over Brown, who injured his foot Sunday against the Bucs. But if Miami is going to win its second consecutive game, Williams will need to continue to have similarly high production with more carries. Through nine games, he's averaging 11.66 carries each week. This time around, he'll probably see a workload twice as heavy. How he handles it should dictate the Dolphins' success or failure.

On defense for the Dolphins linebacker Joey Porter was supposed to be missed. After coach Tony Sparano benched him for Sunday's game against the Bucs, it was supposed to put Miami in even deeper disarray as it pertained to the ability to put pressure on quarterback Josh Freeman. But in the absence of Porter, who has just 2.5 sacks this season, linebackers Cameron Wake, Charlie Anderson and Matt Roth provided a better pass rush by committee than the Dolphins have had in weeks. Porter is expected to return to action Thursday, but coach Tony Sparano says he expects a rotation of players at the position to continue. If the Dolphins want to rattle Delhomme, who has been sacked 16 times this year, they'll need to prove Sunday's game wasn't just the result of facing a rookie quarterback. And with Porter back in the lineup, it will be interesting to see if his presence helps or hurts what Miami has going.

If the Dolphins want to continue seeing development from second-year quarterback Chad Henne, they need more consistency from the players he's throwing to. Henne has looked decent during his first six games as a starter, but his ascension to the next level may be limited by drops by his receivers. Nobody -- not even wide receiver Davone Bess, who has the best hands on the team -- has been immune from the recent issues. Greg Camarillo, Ted Ginn Jr. and Brian Hartline are all guilty of an occasional miss. And with Brown not fueling the running game, wide receivers will have an even greater responsibility to do a better job with the passing attack.

The Panthers let Delhomme call his own plays in the no-huddle last week against the Falcons, and it's no coincidence that their passing game flourished for the first time this season. This came two weeks after the coaches agreed to back off the mechanical micro-managing of his game. He's at his best when he can get into a rhythm, and that's what no-huddle and two-minute situations allow him.

Defending the run is suddenly an issue for the Panthers. They allowed 176 yards on the ground last week to Atlanta, and it looks like teams are starting to single-block NT Hollis Thomas with impunity. DE Julius Peppers didn't start against the Falcons because of a broken hand, and that, along with Davis' absence, also hurts the run defense.

Because of the injury absences, the Panthers played a pretty bland defense against the Falcons. Dolphins QB Chad Henne is smart enough to find his spots, but they need to rattle him a bit with some blitzes. They'll mix up a few coverage looks, but they simply may not have the personnel to play aggressively without Davis on the field.

Both teams are dealing with issues at the moment, but the Panthers are closer to having anything resembling momentum. The Panthers are getting Delhomme back on track just in time, because the Dolphins can be passed on. The Panthers have struggled in the past with 3-4 looks, and a reconfigured line has to make sure the QB stays on his feet. If so, he should be able to find Steve Smith again. The running games might be a wash, because the Dolphins run D is solid, but the Panthers could limit what Miami does without Brown. In the end, the Panthers just appear to be playing better football, and seem better stocked to overcome the injury absences. Take Panthers.

Indianapolis at Baltimore (-.5)

Last week: Colts beat Patriots 35-34; Ravens beat Browns 16-0.

At 5-4, the Ravens still have playoff ambitions, but they have three tough games coming up. If the Ravens can beat Indianapolis, the road to the postseason becomes much easier. After the Colts, Steelers and Packers, the schedule becomes softer with opponents like Oakland, Chicago and Detroit remaining.

The Colts rallied from 17 points down to beat rival New England on Sunday night. It was a tough game both mentally and physically. The Ravens are even more physical than the Patriots. On Sunday, the Colts will be on the road against a team desperate for a win. Fans in Baltimore still haven't forgotten how the Colts snuck out of town in 1983. Indianapolis will have to bring its A-game -- if it has enough left.

The Colts have won the last six meetings between these two teams -- with Peyton Manning carving up the Baltimore defense in several of those matchups -- and the Ravens are tired of hearing about it. Furthermore, Indianapolis has won 18 consecutive regular-season games. It would do a lot for the Ravens' confidence, as well as the psyche of Baltimore fans, if those streaks ended.

Linebacker Ray Lewis and safety Ed Reed spearhead a big-play defense that forces the issue. But that leaves the defense exposed to big plays. Manning has been masterful at deciphering the Ravens' defensive intent, picking his spots and striking. That must continue. Manning will make some bad plays, but he must counter those with good ones to wide receiver Reggie Wayne and tight end Dallas Clark.

Behind Manning, RB Joseph Addai must have a big day but it figures to be tough sledding against the Ravens' sixth-ranked rushing defense, but it's imperative that Manning stick with his veteran running back. And that doesn't necessarily mean handing him the football. Addai is one of the league's better pass-catching backs and ranks fourth on the team with 36 receptions. Addai could be effective being used as a check-down option against the Ravens' aggressive defense.

After Manning, TE Dallas Clark is the Colts' second biggest playmaker on offense. Unfortunately for the Ravens, they don't have a linebacker who can cover Clark downfield. The Ravens will either put a safety on Clark or bracket him with a linebacker and safety. Regardless, Clark cannot be allowed to roam the middle of the field.

The Ravens possess a potent tandem in running backs Ray Rice and Willis McGahee. Given the chance, quarterback Joe Flacco will spend much of his day turning and handing off. The Colts cannot allow that. If they can limit the Ravens' ground game, they can get after Flacco, who has been susceptible to the pass rush (20 sacks) and turnovers (seven interceptions).

The Ravens have to utilize the three-pronged approach they used last season at running back. Baltimore's defense isn't what it used to be, and Manning will shoot down the Ravens' cornerbacks. The only way to shut down Indianapolis's offense is to give the Colts a steady diet of McGahee, Rice and Le'Ron McClain.

The Ravens will be without Pro Bowl defensive end Terrell Suggs (knee sprain), which changes the game plan of coordinator Greg Mattison. Mattison is old school, and he likes to get pressure with the basic four- or five-man front. But without Suggs, the Ravens are going to have to move around, shift alignments and create mismatches. They must bring pressure off the edges and up the middle, incorporating corners and safety blitzes, as well.

If Manning steps on the field, he will have success against the Ravens, because their secondary is horrendous. If the Ravens can't run the ball and control the time of possession, Manning could put up 30 or 40 points. Baltimore has to get pressure on Manning, but that has been a problem for the team all season. To win, the Ravens have to play a nearly perfect game, or Manning has to leave with an injury. Take Colts.

Cleveland at Detroit (-3.5)

Last week: Browns lost to Ravens 16-0; Lions lost to Vikings 27-10.

If you're into watching the development of young quarterbacks, this is the game for you. The Lions have the draft's top overall pick in rookie Matthew Stafford while the Browns counter with Brady Quinn, who has one more career start than Stafford.

Quinn threw everything short against the Ravens, but he'll likely open it up against Detroit's porous secondary. Stafford, meanwhile, has no problem in airing it out. Still, both offenses have issues with consistency and are struggling to score. The first team to 17 points might win its second game of the season.

The Lions have several rookies who are progressing well, but must keep improving at a rapid clip. They include tight end Brandon Pettigrew, safety Louis Delmas and linebacker Deandre Levy. The Lions need all three players to become not just starters, but playmakers if they're going to approach respectability in the near future.

Quinn has a resilient, self-assured nature, but doubts have seeped in as his career record as a starter has dipped to 1-6. Coach Eric Mangini has said Quinn will make his second consecutive start. However, he is coming off an awful Monday night game in which Baltimore's pass rush for the most part was in his face by the time he planted.

The best way to rebuild Quinn's confidence would be to give him better protection. That should be doable against a defense with a tepid pass rush, a big reason Detroit is 32nd in allowing 271.7 passing yards a game. It's hardly a guarantee, in that the Browns are 32nd in pass offense at 116.2. The disconnection between Quinn and offensive coordinator Brian Daboll must be fixed.

The Browns have played one of the NFL's more difficult schedules, with all eight of their losses coming to teams in the postseason hunt. Here's a chance to prove they aren't the laughingstock they have looked like in the four losses that followed a poorly played victory at Buffalo.

Four of the last seven opponents the Browns faced have defenses ranked 23rd or lower, starting with the No. 31 Lions. If the offense's psyche isn't shattered, it could start to lay a foundation for next season and win a game. But this is a matchup of fragile psyches. The Browns have lost 14 of their past 15. The Lions have lost 24 of 25 since the start of the 2008 season.

Detroit’s offense must handle nose tackle Shaun Rogers to establish a running game. That will be essential to keep the pass pressure (and the blitzes) off Stafford. The job will be made more difficult with the expected loss of RG Stephen Peterman to a right ankle injury. Peterman has the size and tenacity to help neutralize Rogers.

Coaches must dump quick passes to Calvin Johnson from the offense because they aren't working. It was a good concept, trying to get the ball in his hands as much as possible, but with opponents geared to stop him, Johnson is getting drilled as soon as he catches it. The offense would be better off trying to hit Johnson downfield where he's more at home trying to out-position cornerbacks.

The loser of this game will truly be at the bottom -- and in position to get the first pick of the 2010 draft. With a loss, the Lions, who have already lost to the Rams at home, would cement their status as the NFL's worst team. A loss would also mean Detroit would be 2-32 in its past 34 games -- the worst losing stretch of any team in league history. While the Lions are struggling every bit as much as the Browns on the field, they don't have the same off-the-field negativity dogging them. Take Lions.

 San Diego at Denver (+2.5)

Last week: Chargers beat Eagles 31-23; Broncos lost to Redskins 27-17.

This game will go a long way in deciding the AFC West. If the Broncos win, they’ll have a one-game lead and the tiebreaker based on a season sweep. If the Chargers win, it could be a huge blow to a Broncos team that has lost a three-and-a-half game lead in the division in four weeks.

The Broncos can’t afford a fourth straight loss. They have had plenty of problems lately, which are compounded by a key injury to quarterback Kyle Orton. Orton has an ankle injury that knocked him out of last week’s game. The Broncos are unsure what exactly Orton can give them if he plays this week, but they need him in a huge divisional game.

Bronco’s back up QB Chris Simms provided almost nothing off the bench in the second half against Washington. He should be better with a full week of practice with the first-team offense, if he has to play. The Broncos preference is having a somewhat healthy Kyle Orton under center. Orton isn't a very mobile quarterback and the injury is to his plant leg, so if he can manage the pain he shouldn't be affected too much.

San Diego is finally showing why it was a trendy preseason pick to make noise in the AFC this year. Since losing the Broncos, the Chargers have won four in a row. If San Diego comes into Denver and beats a Broncos team that already scored a convincing win in the season series, it will be a sign that the AFC needs to take notice after writing off the Chargers weeks ago.

It's been a much safer time to be Philip Rivers lately. The last time he was sacked more than twice in a game or hit consistently was when the Chargers played the Broncos on Oct. 19. That night, Denver dropped him four times in the second half and five times total. Rivers has a knack for feeling pressure and has avoided several sacks on his own, but as much as Eddie Royal's two kick returns for touchdowns hurt the Chargers in the first half last time, sacks on third down killed them late.

Yards after the catch helped Donovan McNabb to 450 yards passing last week against the Chargers, and the Broncos got an awful lot of extra yardage in their October game in San Diego, including a huge 52-yard gain by Tony Sheffler that set up a game-sealing touchdown. The Chargers are tackling better than they did that night, but against the Eagles they blew their assignments in underneath zone coverage too many times. The Broncos have the weapons to make them pay for a repeat of that.

The Broncos are still plus-three in takeaway ratio, but a big difference between their 6-0 start and 0-3 stretch since their bye week is their minuns-4 in takeaways in the three losses. After committing five turnovers their first six games, they've committed six the last three games. A third-quarter sack-fumble at midfield halted a potential go-ahead drive for the Chargers and led to a Broncos field goal in their last meeting. The Chargers are plus-two in turnovers, but have not been creating enough lately.

The Broncos can't afford to let its defense stay on the field too long in the second half for a fourth straight week. Although the defense deserves some blame for not being better on third down recently, that unit would be helped out immensely if the offense could move the ball. Denver got one first down in the final 24 minutes of its loss at Washington.

In the first meeting, Rivers had time in the first half and was very efficient. The Broncos added some different pressure packages in the second half and were able to put heat on Rivers, which was a big factor in the win. The Chargers will be prepared better this week, but the Broncos still need to get to the quarterback.

The Broncos haven’t looked very good for three weeks. Last week, losing Kyle Orton at the end of the first half ruined their chances of winning. As long as Orton can play, Denver has a good chance to get back on track. The defense needs to stop the run and San Diego hasn’t run it well all year and make sure Philip Rivers doesn’t have too long to throw. The Broncos beat the Chargers pretty easily at San Diego on Oct. 19 but the Broncos have suddenly lost their swagger while the Chargers have found theirs. Take Chargers.

NY Jets at New England (-10.5)

Last week: Jets lost to Jaguars 24-22; Patriots lost to Colts 35-34.

The debate on whether Bill Belichick should've gone for it on 4th-and-2 has raged for days, and we will see if the Patriots can shake off a crushing defeat. National and local pundits used Belichick as a punching bag. Meanwhile, the players took two days off and stayed out of sight, trying to get over a brutal loss to the Colts. Can the Pats refocus in time to gear up for the Jets? Figure it won't take much for a divisional battle.

Will Rex Ryan's tears finally be of joy? Early on, the Jets were an NFL feel-good story, a team with a brash coach and players who backed it up. That was a long time ago. With one win in the last six, Ryan has attempted everything to fix the problem. A week off for a bye didn't help. Neither did crying while addressing the team, as Ryan did last week. Can the Jets overcome an inconsistent quarterback and a suddenly toothless defense to turn their season around?

Plus, check out if this becomes a real race in the AFC East: With a win over the Dolphins two weeks ago, the Pats took a sizeable lead in their own division. But the loss to the Colts made it a two-game advantage. If the Jets can upset the Patriots, just one game will separate the two teams. The Jets may have issues, and they may be in a recent swoon. But a win Sunday changes their season, taking it on a 180 degree turn. Games in the East are always intense ... and the trash-talking only adds to it.

Yes, rookie QB Mark Sanchez will have help from offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer in that chess match, but it will be up to Sanchez to make the right checks at the line and the correct reads once he drops back to pass. Sanchez successfully ran a low-risk passing game in the first meeting, but was helped by the fact that Belichick chose to play very vanilla on defense, very rarely sending extra pressure. He figures to mix things up a lot more this time.

The missing ingredient for New England in the first meeting was slot receiver Wes Welker, who sat out with a knee injury. He's healthy now and his presence should prevent the Jets from giving too much extra help on WR Randy Moss. Jacksonville found success against the Jets on slants over the middle, and Welker runs those routes quite well.

 Welker missed all of game 1 vs. the Jets with a knee injury, and the result was a tough loss. Will the NFL's third-most productive receiver make that much of a difference? He better. The Jets secondary can be exploited, particularly with all their blitzes. Welker can find holes in a defense, and he'll have to make the Jets pay.

One thing missing from the Jets' arsenal this season has been the long kickoff return. Leon Washington is out for the season with a compound fracture of his right leg, and his longest return in 2009 was only 43 yards. If Justin Miller cannot regain the form he had in his first tour of duty with the Jets, New York will have to cause a turnover or two to swing the field-position battle in its favor and make Tom Brady & Co. work for their points.

They can say what they want, but it's likely that some members of the Patriots defense felt slighted with Belichick's decision to put the ball in the offense's hands against the Colts. But the truth is, they had allowed Peyton Manning to do what he wanted, especially late. If the defensive players want more respect, they must begin earning it this week. Quarterback Mark Sanchez may not make it easy, but there will be opportunities to capitalize on rookie mistakes.

Despite their differing places in the standings, the Patriots and the Jets aren't at all in spots foreign to one another. Both teams are scuffling on the heels of a tough loss that never should've taken place. Yet Ryan's tears may not be the answer to a bounce-back Sunday. Back-to-back losses are a rarity for the Patriots, and the fact that it's the Jets they are facing only makes it easier. With another crack at a rookie quarterback in Sanchez, Belichick should have something interesting cooked up. And Brady should have a better handle on the Jets' complex blitzing scheme. Oh, and don't think the Pats have forgotten all the talking the Jets did last time. This Sunday, New York pays but just the right amount. Take points and Jets.

Seattle at Minnesota (-10.5)

Last week: Seahawks lost to Cardinals 31-20; Vikings beat Lions 27-17.

The Vikings still haven't played a complete game this season, yet they're 8-1. That leaves them feeling confident about what they can do down the stretch. This week they'll continue trying to improve against a struggling opponent.

It's rare for an elite NFL team to go through a season without stumbling against an inferior opponent. The Vikings beat St. Louis and Detroit (twice) despite not playing their best. They need to make sure they don't slip against Seattle. There's every reason to believe they'll avoid the upset but the line is too great. Take points and Seahawks.

New Orleans at Tampa Bay (+11.5)

Last week: Saints beat Rams 28-23; Buccaneers lost to Dolphins 25-23.

On paper this game looks like an easy one for the unbeaten Saints. They clearly are the better team here, but they're coming off a bit of a toe-stub against the Rams. They'll be looking to get back on track.

Meanwhile, the Bucs are a different team with Josh Freeman leading the offense. They're more confident, even after falling behind. Their defense, though, remains a big weak spot. Even if the Bucs switch up and throw something different at Drew Brees, it probably won't be enough to stop him. Take Saints.

Atlanta at NY Giants (-6.5)

Last week: Falcons lost to Panthers 28-19; Giants lost to Eagles two weeks ago 40-17.

Both teams are desperate to stop the bleeding and start winning again, but the Giants, coming off their bye week and riding a four-game skid, are at home and probably need the win more. The return to health of LB Michael Boley, T Chris Canty and cornerback Aaron Ross should help fortify a defense that has disappointed.

Plus, playing consecutive road games is a difficult assignment for the Falcons, who are 1-4 away from home this season. The loss of RB Michael Turner would be a huge blow and would put too much of a burden on Matt Ryan. Eli Manning played well in his last outing, a loss to the Chargers, and should be successful in this game as long as he limits turnovers. Carefully take Giants.

Washington at Dallas (-10.5)

Last week: Redskins beat Broncos 27-17; Cowboys lost to Packers 17-7.

The win over Denver ended a four-game losing streak and gives the Redskins fleeting hope for the season, while the Cowboys are trying to get back in the win column after Green Bay ended their four-game winning streak.

Indeed, after a pathetic offensive performance against Green Bay, and with a new starting right tackle, the Cowboys will attempt to establish their dominance on both lines of scrimmage. Washington's offense can't score enough points to keep up but will keep it close enough. Take points and Redskins.

Pittsburgh at Kansas City (+9.5)

Last week: Steelers lost to Bengals 18-12; Chiefs beat Raiders 16-10.

The trap game issue aside, the Steelers didn't become the program they are by losing to teams like Kansas City. Still, it's interesting to note that lesser Pittsburgh opponents like Cleveland and Detroit were able to hang in during their games against the Steelers. That's probably the best Kansas City can hope for.

Despite last week's win in Oakland, the Chiefs have too many issues to think they can realistically compete with Pittsburgh. They've been blown out by many of the stronger opponents they've played and the game against the Steelers has a similar feel. If Pittsburgh comes to Arrowhead Stadium with its best game, there's little the Chiefs can do to have any say in the outcome. Take Steelers.

Buffalo at Jacksonville (-8.5)

Last week: Bills lost to Titans 41-17; Jaguars beat Jets 24-22.

These teams seem to be headed in opposite directions. Jacksonville finally seems to be peaking on both sides of the ball with the symbiotic run and pass game finally gelling, and the club's decision to revert back to the 4-3 paying dividends. The Jaguars are 3-1 at home this season, and highly motivated to keep their playoff hopes alive.

The Bills, meanwhile, appear to be regressing, due primarily to injuries. The offensive line is in disarray, but the situation on defense might be even worse. Every member of Buffalo's starting secondary last week against Tennessee wasn't an opening-day starter. The club has also struggled with injuries at linebacker and on the defensive line.

Buffalo's slide will likely continue- even with a new coach at the helm- against the red-hot Jags. Look for Jacksonville to shorten the game by pounding the Bills with a heavy dose of Maurice Jones-Drew. Take Jaguars.

San Francisco at Green Bay (-6.5)

Last week: 49ers beat Bears 10-6; Packers beat Cowboys 17-7.

How well the Packers contain RB Frank Gore and tight end Vernon Davis will determine how this game goes. The 49ers' defense will give Green Bay's leaky offensive line fits, and so it should be a defensive battle.

Playing at home will help the Packers, but it's no guarantee for victory, especially considering how well the 49ers played at Houston and Indianapolis. Expect a tight game. Take 49ers.

Arizona at St-Louis (+8.5)

Last week: Cardinals beat Seahawks 31-20; Rams lost to Saints 28-23.

The Rams haven't defeated the Cardinals in St. Louis since the 2004 season. Worst yet, the Cardinals have averaged 35 points a game in those four consecutive victories. Although it looks like the 1-7 Rams are making progress, they don't have enough talent on either side of the ball to end their losing ways against Arizona. The Cardinals can put more distance between themselves and the rest of the NFC West with a victory Sunday. Take Cardinals.

Cincinnati at Oakland (+9.5)

Last week: Bengals beat Steelers 18-12; Raiders lost to Chiefs 16-10.

The Raiders are fresh from a loss to one of the league's worst teams (Kansas City)and in the middle of a quarterback controversy involving the player they envisioned as their franchise savior (Russel) when they selected him as the No. 1 pick in the 2007 NFL draft.

The Bengals are riding high on the heels of beating the defending Super Bowl champion Pittsburgh Steelers for the second time this season. The Bengals are too well-rounded for the Raiders to match up with for an entire game. Look for the Bengals to overwhelm the Raiders offensively and defensively and get their first win ever at the Oakland Coliseum. Take Bengals.

Philadelphia at Chicago (+2.5)

Last week: Eagles lost to Chargers 31-23; Bears lost to 49ers 10-6.

Because the Eagles are rather one-dimensional without a solid running game with Brian Westbrook’s uncertain status, the Bears have no running game either, and both teams have strong-armed quarterbacks, this is a good matchup. The stakes make it all the more interesting. As a result, it should be a tightly fought game. The Bears have had a tendency toward big penalties and dumb mistakes lately, so expect something like this to prove costly late in the game. Take Eagles.

Tennessee at Houston (-4.5)

Last week: Titans beat Bills 41-17; Texans beat Bills two weeks ago 31-10.

If the Texans are going to be a legitimate playoff contender for the first time, they must defeat the Titans. If they do, they host Indianapolis in the next game and visit Jacksonville the week after that. If the Texans get off to another slow start and commit turnovers in the first quarter, the Titans might jump on them. Expect it to be a physical game with a lot of trash talking. The Texans will limit RB Chris Johnson to fewer than 100 yards. Young will be forced to throw more than he wants. Take Texans.

 

By: Aengus Moorehead @ 18:01 | Category: Football  | Comments: 0 | Permalink

Week 10

November 11 2009 @ 18:18

Greetings Lasses and Lads

As I mentioned last week, Week 9 featured six matchups with spreads over 8 ½ points. Only the Falcons and Seahawks managed to cover their respective spreads, although it was not easy for these two squads as the Falcons survived a late drive by the Redskins and the Seahawks scored with only 22 ticks left on the clock –interception return- against the hapless Lions.

The Colts almost needed overtime to crown a winner and the Saints were down 14-0 after the first quarter against the Panthers.  

However, week 9 was the tale of the falling favourites. I recognize that you could have bestowed the favourite hat on any team comprised in 5 of these 6 matchups but Green Bay losing by 10 to winless Tampa Bay and to a 21 year old rookie QB is quite the aberration.  

With so many bad teams roaming through the league (Buccs, Rams, Lions, Browns, Bills, Raiders), it is no wonder Week 10 offer more of the same with 5 matchups at 8 ½  spreads and beyond. Good Luck!

My upset of the week: Atlanta(-1.5) at Carolina.

My no-brainer of the week: Baltimore (-10.5) at Cleveland.

My record against the spread:

Last week: 8-5.

Season: 68-61.

Chicago at San Francisco (-2.5)

Last week: Bears lost to Cardinals 41-21; 49ers lost to Titans 34-27.

The NFL opens its stretch of Thursday night games with this game. It's an 8:20 ET start from San Francisco.

Why to watch on Thursday night? For the history. Mike Singletary played 11 years for the Bears and was the soul of a defense that carried the team to Super Bowl victory in 1985. When Singletary decided he wanted to get into coaching, he was living in Chicago and his first call was to then-Bears coach Dick Jauron. Jauron told him there was nothing available, so Singletary joined the Ravens staff. Thursday's game will be Singletary's first against his former team.

There's more history. Two years ago, the Bears levied tampering charges against the 49ers for pursuing linebacker Lance Briggs, who was in the midst of a contract dispute with the Bears. The NFL ruled against the 49ers, and they were docked a fifth-round pick in the 2008 draft. There is no love lost between the two front offices as a result of the saga.  

Both teams' passing games have sputtered, but both feature a promising rookie wideout. Speedster Johnnie Knox wasn't a big name in the draft when the Bears took him in the fifth round out of Abilene Christian. However, Knox has caught 28 passes and scored three touchdowns, including one for 68 yards.

Meanwhile, the 49ers' Michael Crabtree is establishing himself as Alex Smith's most reliable target. Crabtree, the 10th overall pick, has 14 catches in his first three games after a contentious holdout but is looking for his first touchdown catch.

The Bear’s defensive woes against Cincinnati and Arizona came to a head on third down and in the red zone. The situation snowballed, and the defense got into a bad habit of backing up and accepting early-game punishment. The third down defense had been the NFL's best in Lovie Smith's first five years. No more: Only seven teams are worse than the Bears' 58 percent prevention rate. And, only the Giants are worse preventing TDs in the red zone.

Without Brian Urlacher and with Tommie Harris struggling the past few games, Briggs is the chief defensive weapon. The defense excels when he's able to attack the run and occasionally blitz. The Bears need Briggs in the backfield, blowing up run blocking schemes to prevent RB Frank Gore from doing what he did to the Seahawks earlier this season -- a couple of 80-yard runs.

When the game plan has QB Jay Cutler throwing downfield at the start, disaster develops. Last week screen passes to Matt Forte took shape and throws to TE Greg Olsen started to look like coaches have wanted all season. Cutler must look for short routes to Devin Hester and other receivers, hoping to break them for longer gains, and then look downfield more for Hester and Johnny Knox. That approach worked against Seattle, Pittsburgh, Detroit and Cleveland.

The 49ers’ offense operated out of the shotgun 55 percent of the time Sunday against Tennessee, and were it not for four turnovers, the strategy would have worked. Coaches went in that direction in large part because the Titans entered the game with the NFL's worst pass defense. The Bears have a higher ranking, but their secondary is riddled and vulnerable to an air attack.

The 49ers are among the NFL's worst third-down teams. The issue, however, begins on first down when running plays are frequently stuffed for no gain or minimal yards. Coaches did a better job of switching up their approach against the Titans by passing more on first down and running out of the shotgun. They must try to keep the Bears off balance as well.

The defense sacked Vince Young once Sunday. If they give Cutler too much time, he'll pick the defense apart. The problem is that the 49ers aren't getting any pressure from the edge. Outside linebacker Parys Haralson led the team in sacks last season -- he has one this season, and it came in Week 1.

These underperforming teams believe they can make the playoffs, but both must get on serious winning streaks to achieve their goals. The Bears offense has been able to gain huge chunks of yardage, but their defense has been giving up even bigger chunks of late. How well an injury-riddled unit can recover on a short week will determine the outcome.

The 49ers, meanwhile, are diversifying their too-simple offense, but they have been making too many mistakes to win. Take Bears.

Buffalo at Tennessee (-6.5)

Last week: Bills lost to Texans two weeks ago 31-10; Titans beat 49ers 34-27.

Vikings running back Adrian Peterson gets far more attention, but Titans running back Chris Johnson might be the most exciting player going in the NFL right now. Johnson has electrifying speed and is a threat to break one on any play. He has touchdown runs of 89 and 91 yards in the first 8 games and is averaging a NFL-best 6.7 yards per carry. He could have a huge day against Buffalo -- the Bills are 32nd in the NFL in run defense, allowing 173.6 yards per game.

It's probably a matter of too-little, too-late for the Titans, but after a 0-6 start they're looking more like the team that finished with the NFL's best record at 13-3 in 2008. And with a back-up quarterback in Vince Young leading the way. The Titans have put together back-to-back wins since Young replaced starter Kerry Collins after the bye, and they're playing with more energy on both sides of the football. No 0-6 team has ever made the playoffs, but the Titans think they can get on a roll like they did in 2002, when they started 1-4 and won 10 of 11 to make the playoffs. We'll see.

Trent Edwards is expected to return after missing the last two games with a concussion. When he was playing, he looked tentative and didn't display the level of self-assurance that's needed to be effective. The Titans have the NFL's lowest-rated pass defense, so if the offensive line holds up, Edwards can complete some passes and start feeling good about himself again. After all, a confident quarterback tends to be a productive one.

The Bills' offensive woes are directly related to their inability to keep drives alive. They are 30th in the NFL in third-down conversion percentage and 31st in average time of possession per game. The Bills' defense has been getting worn down by good running games like the Titans possess. The only way that changes is if the offense moves the chains and puts points on the board.

QB Vince Young has played efficiently since returning to the starting lineup. But he's benefited greatly from a strong running game spearheaded by explosive Chris Johnson, the NFL's rushing leader. The Bills are last in the NFL against the run, allowing at least 200 yards three times. Young isn't a very accurate passer, so look for the Bills to bring an eighth defender in the box to try to take away Johnson and put Young in situations where he has to make plays with his arm.

 Young hasn't put up huge numbers in his first two starts, but he's been effective and made good decisions. He's not turning the ball over with interceptions like he did as a starter in 2008, when he threw 17 picks. In two starts, he still hasn't thrown an interception. If Young doesn't force the football the Titans like their chances with a run game that can control the football, and the clock.

 Johnson has been on a roll of late, and has 959 yards already on the season at the halfway point. He has three 100-yard games already, and his success in the past two games has taken the pressure off of Young. If Johnson can run against the 32nd ranked Buffalo run defense, it should allow Young to pick his spots and make plays downfield as well, something he did in a win at San Francisco on Sunday.

In the past two weeks the Titans have turned up the heat, with defensive coordinator Chuck Cecil applying more pressure with blitzes. It's led to more sacks, and turnovers by the defense. The Titans have more interceptions in the past two weeks (5) than the previous six weeks combined (4). They'll try and disrupt the Bills passing game, and not allow quarterback Trent Edwards to get comfortable.

The Titans look like a different team in the past two weeks. They're causing turnovers, not giving the ball away, and they're playing much more solid across the board. The Bills, on the other hand, have been inconsistent during the first half of the season. The Titans will be able to run the ball against the Bills with Johnson, and on defense keep Edwards on his heels. The result will be a third straight win for the Titans. Take Titans.

Cincinnati at Pittsburgh (-6.5)

Last week: Bengals beat Ravens 17-7; Steelers beat Broncos 28-10.

The Steelers haven't played a game against the Bengals with this much on the line since a wild-card playoff victory in Cincinnati in 2005. Both teams are 6-2 and tied for the top spot in the AFC, but the Bengals won the first meeting, 23-20, after scoring 14 points in the final seven minutes. That game ended the Steelers' eight-game winning streak in Paul Brown Stadium. Since then, the Steelers have won five in a row, the second longest streak in the league.

They have not lost at Heinz Field since November, 2008, against the Indianapolis Colts, a span of 10 games, including playoffs. But the Bengals are 3-0 on the road and 4-0 in the AFC North this season. They have a chance to sweep both the Ravens and Steelers in the same season.

The game is also a matchup of top running backs -- players who have been among the league's most productive rushers the past five games. Rashard Mendenhall is averaging 105.6 yards per game since replacing Willie Parker as the starter five games ago and is coming off a game in which he rushed for 155 yards on 22 carries against the Broncos' No. 1-ranked defense. Cincinnati's Cedric Benson has three 100-yard games in his last four outings, two of which came against the Baltimore Ravens. Curiously, the Bengals have not had a running back gain over 100 yards against the Steelers since Rudi Johnson in October, 2004, a span of 11 games.

When Benson isn't hammering away between the tackles for valuable yardage in the ground game, he must help pick up the Steelers' blitz coming from all directions. Benson is a complete back who can run, catch and block. His blocking ability will be tested as the Bengals seek a series sweep against Pittsburgh.

The Steelers have not allowed a 100-yard rusher in 30 consecutive games, counting playoffs, but Benson had 76 yards on 16 carries against them in the first meeting -- the most the Steelers have allowed an opposing back this season. Since then, he has rushed for more than 100 yards in three of his past four games.

Defensively for the Bengals, pressuring Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger isn't the problem. Sacking him is. Ben is a big, mobile, athletic QB with great vision and arm strength. He keeps plays alive with his feet, sheds tacklers with his size and strength, and keeps his eyes focused downfield for receivers breaking open on the scramble drill. DTs Domata Peko and Tank Johnson must get a solid push up the middle, and ends Robert Geathers and Jonathan Fanene must keep Roethlisberger contained to the pocket. The goal is to hit him, hold on and hope help arrives quickly.

As much as the Steelers like to run the ball with physicality, their WR corps of Hines Ward, Santonio Holmes and Mike Wallace has emerged as a true strength. If the Bengals' front seven doesn't apply the necessary pressure up front, the secondary will be forced to cover longer, and that will likely spell doom for the Bengals. However, if the pressure is there, CBs Leon Hall and Johnathan Joseph will make quicker breaks on the ball, giving the Bengals an opportunity to create turnovers.

In five games as a starter, Mendenhall has rushed for 528 yards and is averaging 5.73 yards per carry. The only back among the NFL's top 30 rushers with a better yards-per-carry average is Tennessee's Chris Johnson (6.7). But the Bengals' run defense has tightened with young linebackers Keith Rivers and Rey Maualuga.

The Steelers did not pressure Carson Palmer in the first meeting and instead allowed the Bengals quarterback to dink and dunk his way down the field on 85- and 71-yard scoring drives in the fourth quarter. Palmer was sacked only twice in that game. Since then, though, the Steelers have 18 sacks, 11 takeaways and three defensive touchdowns during their five-game winning streak.

This is a chance for the Bengals to take a stronghold in the division race because they would own virtually every tiebreaker against the Steelers. But don't forget that the Steelers dominated the first meeting between the teams, both offensively and defensively, until the Bengals mounted two long (85 and 71 yards), and late, scoring drives in the final quarter to win. Since then, the Steelers have changed the way they play defense, becoming more aggressive when the game is on the line, and it's no coincidence they have won five in a row since that defeat. However, the Bengals will keep it close. Take points and Bengals.

Dallas at Green Bay (+2.5)

Last week: Cowboys beat Eagles 20-16; Packers lost to Buccaneers 38-28.

The Cowboys are looking at a possible 9-2 start if they win Sunday. They have Washington and Oakland at home the following two weeks. The Cowboys, with a 5-1 record in the conference, also are in contention for home-field advantage in the NFC.

The Packers are desperate; if they don't win, Coach Mike McCarthy and general manager Ted Thompson could have their fates sealed. The Packers would be a long shot to make the playoffs if they lose the first of two straight at home.

The atmosphere at Lambeau Field should be electric, but if the Packers struggle, don't be surprised if disgruntled fans start to turn on them.

The Cowboys have scored just 12 TDs in 24 possessions inside the 20, tying them for 18th in the NFL. One problem with Dallas' red zone offense is its lack of an identity. It doesn't have a go-to player or a go-to play. The Cowboys tried consecutive slants to Roy Williams on one drive last week, without success; they used the Wildcat formation for the first time in the red zone to score on another. The Cowboys have plenty of weapons but haven't figured out how to maximize them. Could WR Miles Austin be the answer?

Since severely pulling his quadriceps against the Giants, RB Marion Barber has rushed 66 times for a 3.7-yard average, with two touchdowns. In the first two games of the season, he averaged 6.3 yards on 32 carries. The offense runs better when Barber can act as a battering ram. Since the injury, he has lacked explosion and burst as well as the power to consistently break tackles. Still, he carried five times for 29 yards in the fourth quarter to help the Cowboys close out Philadelphia. They need him to be that effective early in the game.

The Packers' run defense has been excellent, mostly on the strength of the lineman holding firm at the point of attack and not allowing runners to get a head of steam. This week the D-line will be facing a huge, tough offensive line that can pound on it all day long. Rookie tackle B.J. Raji must provide help as part of the line rotation. The unit can slow down Barber if it doesn't get pushed around.

If the Cowboy’s defense can stop running back Ryan Grant and put the Packers in long-yardage situations on second and third down, it will then be able to exploit Green Bay's league-worst pass protection. Coach Wade Phillips likes to blitz, but he can be even more creative when he doesn't have to worry about a rushing threat.

The best way to beat the Cowboys isn't by Aaron Rodgers trying to complete passes on long-developing routes. It's by hitting slants, hitches and curls. When he does take seven-step drops, Rodgers has to consider dumping the ball off if there's nothing open right away. Given the way the line has played, there isn't enough time for second-window throws.

Assuming rookie T.J. Lang starts at left guard in place of Daryn Colledge, the offense will be able to run behind two power-blocking guards. The Cowboys are stout in the middle, but Grant has been warming up and veteran Ahman Green seems to be getting his legs under him. Those two must be used extensively to establish the team's toughness and keep the Cowboys' offense off the field.

As desperate as the Packers are, they just can't match the talent of the Cowboys and they're going to have a hard time dealing with them in the trenches. There's no reason to think quarterback Tony Romo will have any pressure on him, and he should be able to shred the secondary. Conversely, the Cowboys have too much up front for the Packers' struggling offensive line to handle. Take Cowboys.

Philadelphia at San Diego (-2.5)

Last week: Eagles lost to Cowboys 20-16; Chargers beat Giants 21-20.

This should be an air show. The Eagles were shut down for the most part against Dallas, but the previous week, they racked up 30 points before halftime thanks to four long touchdowns (two passing). The Chargers' offense is almost entirely predicated on moving the ball in large chunks via the pass. Since Philadelphia has run the ball just 190 times and the Chargers 182, chances are this game will feature a few throws.

Both teams are engaged in tight division races. The Broncos left San Diego on Oct. 19 with a 6-0 record and a 3 1/2-game AFC West lead. No team in the modern era has lost such a lead after beginning the season with six victories. And Denver could still hold on. But the Chargers (5-3) are just one game back now, having won three straight while the Broncos have lost two in a row. The Chargers could move into a tie as soon as this weekend (Denver plays at Washington) and would set up a huge showdown in Denver the following week with a victory over the Eagles. Meanwhile, Philadelphia is a game behind 6-2 Dallas in the NFC East after losing to the Cowboys this past Sunday.

Charger WR Vincent Jackson alone is worth the three hours of viewing time. His four 100-yard games and seven touchdowns this season are tied for the league lead; his 722 yards (on 42 catches) are third; and his 17.2 yards per catch are best among receivers with at least 35 receptions. At 6-5 and 230 with speed, he is a constant mismatch. The Eagles' secondary, coming off perhaps its worst game of the year against Dallas, is a little undersized to be entirely comfortable going against Jackson and fellow big men Antonio Gates and Malcom Floyd.

Those who say, "It's how you finish, not how you start," haven't seen the Eagles. This team proves time after time that it's practically incapable of pulling out close games in the fourth quarter -- they're 1-8-1 in their past 10 games decided by seven points or fewer. It's best if they jump out to the lead and keep adding to it.

The Eagles should take advantage of the season-ending injury to Chargers All-Pro nose tackle Jamal Williams by throwing a heavy dose of runs up the gut with LeSean McCoy, Brian Westbrook (if he's healthy) and fullback Leonard Weaver. The coaches recently have shown a willingness to get the run game going earlier, especially against defenses trying to pressure Donovan McNabb with exotic blitzes.

The Eagles' top receiver DeSean Jackson is coming off his second-worst game of the season, a two-catch, 29-yard effort against Dallas. He was double-teamed often, forcing  McNabb to look elsewhere in the passing game. The coaches can free up Jackson by putting him in motion, dialing up some quick screens or getting him the ball on end arounds. He's a threat to score every time he touches the ball. They just need to make sure he gets his touches.

The Chargers' pass defense was ranked 20th in the league after four games, allowing an average of 214.8 yards per game. Over the past four games, they are allowing a league-low 144.5 yards per game. Quentin Jammer and Antonio Cromartie have been shutting down receivers, the safety play is almost immeasurably better over the past month, and the Chargers are blitzing more and winning one-on-one battles up front.

The last time the Chargers faced a mobile quarterback like McNabb, Pittsburgh's Ben Roethlisberger scrambled around long enough to make play after play. Sometimes the coverage was good, but the pass rushers could not bring Roethlisberger down. They often had him in their grasp but couldn't finish. Even with five sacks last week at New York, the Chargers left a few on the field for the same reason, and Eli Manning is not nearly as elusive as McNabb.

The common thread in the Chargers' three consecutive victories is that they have not trailed by a lot early. That allows them to dictate to opposing offenses. While they appear committed to an aggressive defense going forward, that is much easier to execute with a lead. In their first four games, the Chargers had seven total sacks and were outscored 55-29 in the first half. In their past four games, they have 15 sacks and have outscored their opponents 68-34 in the first half. That is not a coincidence.

The Eagles have the kind of dynamic quarterback and offensive weapons that gave the Chargers fits earlier this season. But this is a different Chargers defense, playing with confidence and energy. Philadelphia will test the Chargers' offensive front as much as the Giants did. But Philip Rivers is great at getting rid of the ball and avoiding pressure. At home, on a roll and knowing what this game could mean, the Chargers should win. Take Chargers.

New England at Indianapolis (-2.5)

Last week: Patriots beat Dolphins 27-17; Colts beat Texans 20-17.

Where to start? It's only the latest chapter in the NFL's best rivalry and the latest Game of the Century. It's Peyton Manning vs. Tom Brady. It's the Colts, who are 8-0 and have won 17 straight regular-season games vs. the Patriots, who are 6-2 and own the two longest winning streaks in league history (21 from 2006-08, 18 from 2003-04). The showdown could have down-the-road playoff ramifications, even to the point of determining who earns the No. 1 seed. Or who doesn't.

The pregame hype likely will focus on the chess matching pitting Patriots coach Bill Belichick and Manning. Belichick is a master at determining a team's strength, taking it away and forcing the opposing QB to look elsewhere. Belichick had the upper hand earlier. Manning lost seven of his first eight meetings with the Belichick-led Patriots. But Manning is on a roll; having directed the Colts to wins in four of the past five meetings, including a 38-34 win in the AFC title game after the 2006 season.

Can the Colts' injury-depleted secondary adequately deal with Patriots WRs Randy Moss and Wes Welker and TE Ben Watson? Defensive coordinator Larry Coyer likely will have to dial up his nickel much of the evening, which will stress starting rookie CBs Jerraud Powers and Jacob Lacey and veterams Tim Jennings and T.J. Rushing.

Few have been able to stop Peyton Manning and the Colts offense since, oh, 1998. The Patriots have only done so once in the last six years, and that's in the 2004 AFC Title Game. Bill Belichick's squad must make Indianapolis earn every inch. The defensive backs must ignore his hand motioning and yelling and simply not let their receivers get behind them.

Manning is the league's No. 3-rated QB (105.2) and leads the league with a 70.6 completion percentage. Brady's 99.2 rating ranks sixth and his completion percentage (65.8) ranks eighth. Each is a surgeon when allowed to operate in a clean pocket. Each can struggle when he's forced to move around. The Colts must bring pressure with DEs Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis, along with an occasional blitz. The Patriots must get Manning off of his "spot," by mixing coverages and pressure packages.

In the backfield, Patriot’s RB Laurence Maroney has had his three most productive games back-to-back-to-back, and his most recent was a gritty, 82-yard effort vs. the Dolphins. He's finally willing to gain the tough yards, sticking his nose between the tackles. If he can do that against a relatively soft front, the Pats may be able to play keep-away from Manning and company.

In the outfield, there's no better home-run hitter in the league than Moss. He's averaging 14.5 yards per catch and leads the Patriots with five TD catches. He'll be a matchup nightmare whether he lines up against Jerraud Powers or Jacob Lacey. Moss is 6-4 and plays like he's 6-7. Powers and Lacey, both rookies, are playing well but still will be 5-10 Sunday night.

Bob Sanders, the dynamic safety, is out with an injury, and so is cornerback Marlin Jackson. That leaves a defensive backfield on life support. Talented rookie Jerraud Powers has impressed at corner, but as Randy Moss showed last week with his torturing of Vontae Davis, he likes first-year players. Brady should just throw and throw until he's forced to stop.

It's hard to imagine the Colts continuing on their unbeaten path if they continue to lean so heavily on Manning. He's attempted 98 passes in his past two games, the second-most in consecutive games in his career. So much passing leads to an occasional sack and/or interception. Manning has been sacked five times in the past two games after going down only twice in the first six. Offensive coordinator Tom Moore must be committed to getting RBs Joseph Addai and Donald Brown more involved from the start, even if the yards come grudgingly.

The Patriots have won five of their last six, but are just 1-2 on the road this season with the lone winning coming against Tampa Bay. Tom Brady hasn't been nearly as effective away from home. The Colts have established Lucas Oil Stadium as a difficult place for opponents to thrive. They've won 10 straight at The Luke. Of course, it helps to have Peyton Manning running the show. He remains on top of his game, but the team is relying a bit too much on his right arm. Take Patriots.

Atlanta at Carolina (+1.5)

Last week: Falcons beat Redskins 31-17; Panthers lost to Saints 30-20.

Every intangible reason would tell you to go Panthers with this one, as the Falcons bounced back from their New Orleans loss with an impressive win last week, and the Panthers are backed into the corner, and playing perhaps their last meaningful game at home.

But that would overlook one important element to this game — the Falcons are just better. The Panthers defense lost a lot of its pop when WLB Thomas Davis was lost for the year, and a unit that's been faced to play high-intensity every snap (without a lot of help from the offense) may be about to break. But, Nevertheless, take Panthers.

Tampa Bay at Miami (-9.5)

Last week: Buccaneers beat Packers 38-28; Dolphins lost to Patriots 27-17.

No, this isn't the sexier matchup of the week. And no, it doesn't have any immediate implications. Instead, Sunday's game poses two potential scenarios. Another win by the Bucs could instill hope that they've perhaps stumbled into a decent option at quarterback. Or a win by the Dolphins could put them back on track to gain much-needed momentum heading into the season's second half.

Expect the latter scenario to play out. But also expect this game to generate about as much league-wide importance and excitement as a preseason game. Take Dolphins.

Detroit at Minnesota (-16.5)

Last week: Lions lost to Seahawks 32-20; Vikings beat Packers two weeks ago 38-26.

The Vikings are seeking their 17th win in the past 21 regular-season games. An 8-1 start would be their first since 1998, the season they went 15-1 and reached the NFC championship game before being upset by Atlanta.

With Favre at the helm, the Vikings believe this could be another special year. They must keep the momentum going by pounding Detroit, which hasn't won in Minnesota since 1997.

Anything less than a convincing win would be a disappointment for a Vikings team that's trying to keep pace with undefeated New Orleans for home-field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs. Look for Favre to expose a weak Lions secondary. Take Vikings.

Jacksonville at NY Jets (-6.5)

Last week: Jaguars beat Chiefs 24-21; Jets lost to Dolphins two weeks ago 30-25.

Coach Rex Ryan gave his players six days off during the bye, believing that was the best way to get them physically and mentally prepared for the final push to a potential playoff berth. Still, the Jets haven't been airtight fundamentally and probably could've used a little remedial instruction.

 A fresh start should help them psychologically, and if they can at least slow down Maurice Jones-Drew, they will have taken away by far the Jaguars' biggest weapon, and thus can force David Garrard to try to beat them. The Jets will make just enough plays to win but barely. Take points and Jaguars.

New Orleans at St-Louis (+13.5)

Last week: Saints beat Panthers 30-20; Rams beat Lions two weeks ago 17-10.

It will be a minor miracle if the Rams can just stay in the same area code as the Saints, even with the benefits of a bye week.

The Saints are averaging 38 points a game; the Rams have scored 77 points ALL season. The last two unbeaten teams to visit the Edward Jones Dome, Minnesota and Indy, outscored the Rams by a combined 80-16. Take Saints.

Denver at Washington (+3.5)

Last week: Broncos lost to Steelers 28-10; Redskins lost to Falcons 31-17.

Denver is in the middle of a brutal stretch, having played Dallas, New England, San Diego, Baltimore and Pittsburgh in its past five games. It's stunning that the Broncos are 6-2. But that sort of schedule takes a mental and physical toll. And opponents can take advantage of it -- if they aren't playing with a reshuffled and struggling offensive line like Washington's.

The Redskins have a chance because of their defense and if they were ever going to spring an upset, this would be the week. The timing is right. But the line just can't be trusted. Take Broncos.

Kansas City at Oakland (-1.5)

Last week: Chiefs lost to Jaguars 24-21; Raiders lost to Chargers two weeks ago 24-16.

Both teams are in a position where they need to win their remaining games just to have a realistic shot at making the playoffs. The Raiders get the edge based on having beaten the Chiefs earlier this season and being at home for the rematch. The Chiefs have a more-potent offense than the Raiders, but the Raiders defense is capable of putting together a solid effort every so often.

Look for the Raiders to capitalize on getting back left guard Robert Gallery, right offensive tackle Cornell Green, wide receiver Chaz Schilens and McFadden and find a way to outlast a Chiefs team that hasn't learned how to win the close games under first-year coach Todd Haley. Take Raiders.

Seattle at Arizona (-8.5)

Last week: Seahawks beat Lions 32-20; Cardinals beat Bears 41-21.

The Cardinals have lost three of four at home, a statistic they will hear about 1,000 times this week. That should provide sufficient motivation, something they’ve lacked at home this season.

The Seahawks, at 3-5, are dangerous, especially if quarterback Matt Hasselbeck gets in a rhythm. The Cardinals need to jump on the Seahawks early and not give them confidence. Arizona wins, Seattle covers. Take points and Seahawks.

Baltimore at Cleveland (+10.5)

Last week: Ravens lost to Bengals 17-7; Browns lost to Bears two weeks ago 30-6.

Strange things have been pulled out of thin air by other lost teams in other Monday night games. Cleveland staying in this game would be strange to say the least. Baltimore is in a 1-4 skid, but the Ravens have been in every game against a series of playoff-style teams, and they blew away then-unbeaten Denver recently.

The Browns' only win was more than a month ago in one of the ugliest games imaginable, at Buffalo. Since then, the Browns have been pummeled in net offense 449-197 by Pittsburgh, 460-139 by Green Bay and 369-191 by Chicago. The Ravens know the name of that tune. They demolished the Browns 479 yards to 186 in a 34-3 rout of Cleveland on Sept. 27 at Baltimore. In that game, Brady Quinn started and was intercepted on his first series. After Quinn was benched at halftime, Derek Anderson was picked off three times. Nothing about what happened in that game or in the ones that followed inspired any belief the Browns can hang with any strong team.

It's a strange year for the Ravens, whose offense is higher in the league rankings than its vaunted defense. Even though Baltimore's defense has sprouted a few leaks, the Ravens still make you pass on them to beat them. The Browns haven't had a clue as to milking an air game out of a young receiving corps. Baltimore's offense, on the other hand, unleashed weapons at every turn in dismantling Cleveland's defense in September and surely November. Take Ravens.

Open Date: NY Giants & Houston.

 

 

 

By: Aengus Moorehead @ 18:18 | Category: Football  | Comments: 0 | Permalink

Week 9

November 7 2009 @ 15:20

Greetings Lasses and Lads.

Favourites who covered the spread – six of them- did so by a combined average of 21.5 points. However the Saints, Colts and Chargers who gave up double-digit spreads weren’t able to convert. Underdogs like the Dolphins, Rams, Panthers and Vikings all stunned their counterparts with outright victories.

Week 9 features six matchups with spreads over 8.5. Head scratching time.

My upset of the week: Chargers (+3.5) at Giants.

My no-brainer of the week: Green Bay (-9.5) at Tampa Bay.

My record against the spread:

Last week: 6-7.

Season: 60-56.

Baltimore at Cincinnati (+2.5)

Last week: Ravens beat Broncos 30-7; Bengals beat Bears two weeks ago 45-10.

The Bengals beat the Ravens in Baltimore, 17-14, on Oct. 11, thanks to Carson Palmer's 20-yard TD pass to Andre Caldwell with 22 seconds remaining. Now the revenge-seeking Ravens want to return the favor and break the Bengals' hearts. With the Bengals (5-2) holding the AFC North tiebreaker over the Steelers (5-2), and the Ravens (4-3) flying high after their 30-7 victory over Denver, neither team can afford a letdown.

Cincinnati owns a 1-4-1 record in games after its bye under Coach Marvin Lewis, including last season's 13-13 tie with the visiting Eagles. The Bengals' challenge is to come out strong just as they did when they pummeled Chicago, 45-10, on Oct. 25. They must play another complete game to beat the Ravens, whose 13th-ranked defense (313.7 yards a game) is gathering steam.

From the Bengals' trio of quarterback Carson Palmer, running back Cedric Benson and wide receiver Chad Ochocinco, to the Ravens' triumvirate of QB Joe Flacco, running back Ray Rice and wide receiver Derrick Mason, there are game breakers everywhere. The one player worthy of the price of admission is Baltimore free safety Ed Reed, who has a history of turning INTs into TDs against the Bengals.

The Ravens got a break last week because Denver didn't challenge the Baltimore cornerbacks downfield. In fact, Broncos quarterback Kyle Orton only threw one pass more than 20 yards. Bengals quarterback Carson Palmer has a lot of weapons. He'll take his shots with the long ball. The Ravens can afford to give up one or two; if they give up a lot of them, they'll get blown out.

The Ravens' offense is at its best when it is controlling the clock with the running game. The Ravens also wear down opponents with the no-huddle approach. The Bengals' defense has improved, but it can still be gutted in its middle with straight-ahead running plays.

It's no secret around the league that the Ravens' defense is too vanilla. By the fourth quarter, opponents have made adjustments because the defense has been in its base package way too much. The Ravens need to create more looks and move players around. They need to give the Bengals something to think about, especially through blitzes off the perimeter.

Both teams are in the top 10 in rushing offense and rushing defense. The team that can run the ball the best, and control the line of scrimmage, will have the upper hand. Bengal’s RT Andre Smith, the team’s first-round pick this year, finally is healthy after suffering a broken bone in his left foot on Sept. 1. He has been pointing to this game. Given the strength of Baltimore’s defense, now would be a good time to unleash the big fellow.

Palmer cannot afford any interceptions. He absolutely cannot throw the ball anywhere near Ed Reed, who makes his living feasting on errant throws. Reed picked off Palmer and returned the INT 52 yards for a touchdown on Oct. 11. Reed is famous for jumping routes. He baits QBs into thinking he’s leaning one way, and then suddenly shows up where you don’t expect him to be -- with the ball in his hands racing toward the goal line.

The Ravens have a ton of momentum in the wake of their resounding victory over the then undefeated Broncos; the Bengals were idle a week after bludgeoning the Bears. Cincinnati has a history of being rusty coming off its bye week. This season should be different because the squad has shown impressive maturity.

In case the Bengals need a little motivation, they ought to remember that Chad Ochocinco was fined $10,000 for a chinstrap violation while Ravens linebacker Ray Lewis was fined $25,000 for a violent tackle that sent Ochocinco's helmet flying. Palmer's poise under pressure should make a big difference but Joe Flacco’s steady composure should guide the Ravens to victory. Take Ravens.

Houston at Indianapolis (-12.5)

Last week: Texans beat Bills 31-10; Colts beat 49ers 18-14.

If there is going to be any suspense in the AFC South race over the final half of the season, the Texans have to continue their road success and pull an upset. They've gotten off to the best start in their eight-year history (5-3) by winning three of four away from home, including their last two at Buffalo and Cincinnati. The Colts (7-0) have won 16 straight regular-season games and can virtually lock up a sixth division title by knocking off the Texans. They'd have a four-game lead with eight to play.

This should be a must-see game for passing game aficionados. QB Peyton Manning has passed for 2,227 yards, 15 TDs and a 109.3 rating. QB Matt Schaub counters with 2,342 yards and 16 TDs. The Colts feature WR Reggie Wayne (51 catches, 689 yards, 6 TDs), the Texans showcase WR Andre Johnson (44-697-4). Houston's offense, though, will miss TE Owen Daniels, who suffered a season-ending knee injury at Buffalo while the Colts received a huge blow on defense as safety Bob Sanders is out for the season.

The Texans are coming off their best rushing game of the season. Granted, the 186 yards were against the Bills, who rank last in run defense, but it was still a beginning for a team desperate to jump-start its running game. The Texans haven't won at Indianapolis, and they've been outscored by an average of 34-17. Barring a lot of turnovers by the Colts, which isn't likely, their best hope is to keep Peyton Manning on the bench. To do this, they have to run the ball consistently and effectively.

Coach Gary Kubiak won't say if the fumble-prone Steve Slaton or Ryan Moats will start, only that he'll use all three backs, including Chris Brown, as he did at Buffalo. Slaton has lost five fumbles. He's psyched out. The offense can't afford to fumble against the Colts. Moats, who has played two times this season, has 38 carries for 182 yards and three touchdowns. He's quicker than Slaton and hits the hole faster. He deserves to start against the Colts and see if the running game can pick up where it left off at Buffalo.

 Schaub continues to lead the NFL with 2,342 yards passing. Peyton Manning is second with 2,227. Schaub has seven interceptions. He had two at Buffalo, but only one was his fault. Schaub has to play a turnover-free game. In case the running game isn't working, he must help the offense control the ball by throwing a lot of short, low-risk routes that are as good as runs.

He likes to throw the ball down the field, but he's got to play safer against the Colts. The Texans overcame three first-quarter turnovers at Buffalo. They won't be able to do that at Indianapolis. Schaub has to be smart. He can't take chances. Throw the ball away. Take the sack. Don't try to force balls into coverage and play into the Colts' hands.

The Texans' defense has risen from 32nd after three games to 16th at the midway point, surrendering 326.5 yards. The Texans allowed 205 yards rushing after three games. Over their last five games, they've given up 58.2 yards. Now they're ranked 20th in rushing (113.3). The only thing the Colts haven't done well is to run the ball. They rank 30th with 87.3 yards a game. That's even worse than the Texans' 92.5. It makes sense that the Texans will top the Colts' running game. But that means Peyton Manning will have to throw. And he'll have time because the Texans still don't have much of a pass rush without blitzing. Manning eats blitzes for breakfast, so the key is timing; when to blitz and where it is coming from. Defensive coordinator Frank Bush has to surprise Manning to make him throw before he wants to release the ball.

Peyton Manning and the offense are coming off an uncharacteristically "off" game against the 49ers. They managed more than 400 yards in total offense, but scored only one TD while settling for four Matt Stover field goals. Indications are this will be a high-scoring game, and field goals might not suffice. Manning missed on some deep opportunities to WRs Reggie Wayne, Pierre Garcon and Austin Collie against the 49ers. He needs to hit a few against a Houston secondary led by ball-hawking CB Dunta Robinson and Ss Bernard Pollard and Eugene Wilson.

Good teams find a way to win critical games. That's what the Colts continue to do. Houston comes into town with a full head of steam and a three-game winning streak, but the Colts have won 16 straight regular-season games, nine straight at Lucas Oil Stadium. The defense is the league's stingiest in points allowed (13 ppg) and will be tested by QB Matt Schaub and WR Andre Johnson. And without Sanders, the Texans keep it close. Take points and Texans.

San Diego at NY Giants (-3.5)

Last week: Chargers beat Raiders 24-16; Giants lost to Eagles 40-17.

The quarterback matchup bears watching, considering the Chargers actually drafted Eli Manning and traded him to the Giants, who actually drafted Philip Rivers. Both have proven to be the real deal for their respective teams but this game finds Manning mired in a deep slump, having thrown five interceptions in the past two games after playing at an MVP level for the first five games. Manning insists the plantar fasciitis in his right foot that bothered him three weeks ago is not an issue but his performance has taken a dramatic dip ever since he hurt himself in Kansas City.

This might be the week when the Giants defense finally starts getting some reinforcements back onto the field. Just in time, as the defense has allowed 112 points in the three-game losing streak, the most points allowed by the Giants in a three-game span since late October and early November of 1973, back in the bad old days of Giants football. LB Michael Boley has missed the past four games following knee surgery and DT Chris Canty has missed the last seven games with a calf injury. Both took part last week in segments of practice and both will be asked to do more on the practice field this week, with hopes of getting one or both of them into the game against the Chargers.

After feasting on two lesser teams (Chiefs and Raiders) the Chargers look to extend their winning streak to three games with an East Coast game that should challenge their porous run defense. The Chargers allow 132 rushing yards per game and will need to shut down the ground assaults of RB Brandon Jacobs, who is getting the tough yards for the Giants after a slow start. Jacobs through eight games has 550 yards and is slowly getting his yards-per-attempt average up near 4.0 (he's currently at 3.9).

Manning and wide receivers Steve Smith, Mario Manningham and Hakeem Nicks (the leading trio in the NFL) are capable of putting up big plays (32 plays of 20-plus yards) and scoring touchdowns (12). But the Chargers are dependent on making an opponent one-dimensional and getting after the quarterback. They've done it the past two weeks but against weaklings Kansas City and Oakland. Jacobs Ahmad Bradshaw individually each has more yards rushing than the Chargers' LaDainian Tomlinson and Darren Sproles have combined.

The Chargers are trying to achieve balance, because they have the most expensive (and, potentially, one of the most explosive) running back tandems in the league. But Rivers and his receivers are what make the offense go. As capable of the big play as the Giants, mixing it up in the passing game is how they attack this week. Over the first five games (when they were 5-0) the Giants allowed a league-low 524 passing yards. Over the past three weeks (0-3) they have allowed 796 passing yards, third-most in the NFL.

For the Giant’s defense, preventing the big play has been near-impossible last week in Philadelphia and was torched for a 54-yard TD reception by wide receiver DeSean Jackson, 41-yard rushing touchdown by fullback Leonard Weaver and a 66-yard scoring run by running back LeSean McCoy. Up next is Darren Sproles, who can strike from anywhere in the ground game and also on punt and kickoff returns. If the Giants continue to miss assignments and tackles, Sproles' cut-back ability will produce huge plays.

Rivers has been sacked 16 times, and the San Diego offensive line has been up-and-down. In the past, that meant open season for the Giants' pass rush. Not this season as getting consistent pressure has been a surprising deficiency. Coordinator Bill Sheridan has been reluctant to unload a heavy blitz package, fearing the secondary won't hold up, but he might have to adjust his thinking.

TE Antonio Gates is a big-time target for Rivers, and the Giants will be hard-pressed to find a defender capable of running with him. Their safety play has been poor, with C.C. Brown struggling in coverage, and the drops of the linebackers usually aren't deep enough when it comes to locating and staying with Gates. The Giants signed free agent Michael Boley in the offseason for such an assignment, making it important that Boley is able to return this week from his knee surgery.

The Giants believe they've hit rock-bottom, especially with their recent ineptitude on defense, but getting healthy on defense against the Chargers is no easy task. The coverage lapses and communication problems in the Giants secondary remain alarming weaknesses and Rivers has the firepower around him to exploit them. It appears as if the slow-starting Chargers are finally gaining some consistency and their big-play ability is evident. Lately, the Giants have been shabby tacklers and suspect in their coverage units on their special teams, a combination that can prove damaging against the elusive Darren Sproles. Take Chargers.

Dallas at Philadelphia (-2.5)

Last week: Cowboys beat Seahawks 38-17; Eagles beat Giants 40-17.

Sole possession for first place of the NFC East hangs in the balance when these divisional rivals clash at 8 p.m. ET Sunday. The Eagles are 5-2 and moved into a first-place tie with Dallas for the division lead by crushing the Giants 40-17. The white-hot Cowboys come to Lincoln Financial Field riding a three-game win streak.

The Linc's scoreboard isn't as big as the one in Cowboys Stadium but it should be viewed as frequently as both teams ride hot offenses into the showdown. The Eagles got five touchdowns by five different players against the Giants and have arguably the NFL's fastest-striking offense. Fifteen of the team's 20 touchdowns have come on drives of five plays or less. After a slow start, the Cowboys have scorched opponents for the past three games. They're averaging just under 425 yards per game during the stretch and more than 33 points per game.

The game features two of the NFL's most explosive receivers in Philadelphia's DeSean Jackson and Dallas' Miles Austin. All six of Jackson's touchdowns are longer than 50 yards. He's carried an offense plagued by injuries to Donovan McNabb, Kevin Curtis and the offense line. Since replacing Patrick Crayton in the starting lineup, Austin has erupted. His 428 receiving yards in three games is tops in the NFL. He also has five touchdown catches, including grabs of 60 and 59 yards.

Protecting Tony Romo sounds simple enough, considering every team wants to preserved the health of its top quarterback  every week. The difference is that Philadelphia is tied for second in the NFL with 23 sacks and employs exotic blitz packages.

What makes the Eagles' dangerous is they attack the quarterback every down. They have seven sacks each on first and second downs and nine on third.

However, Romo's elusiveness keeps him from getting sacked too often, but the key for him and his blockers is recognition. Romo must figure out where the pressure is coming from and slide his protection that way. It will help if Dallas runs the ball well, so it can stay out of long-yardage situations on third down.

The Eagles lead the NFL with 12 touchdowns of 20 yards or more, which makes up for their otherwise inconsistent offense. They are 17th in yards (344.4), 22nd in first downs (17) and third-down percentage (36.2), but they are third in scoring (29.0).

That's why the Cowboys must get a good game from their secondary, especially cornerback Terence Newman, who this season has had a propensity for giving up big plays. If the Cowboys don't give up the big play, the Eagles will struggle to score.

DeMarcus Ware, the Cowboys' pass-rushing force, has been a terror to Donovan McNabb throughout the years. McNabb was brilliant against the Giants as the offensive line kept him upright and safe, but Ware commands more than one blocker. Coaches must have running backs and tight ends chip Ware to slow his pass rush. Good luck: Ware has five sacks in his past three games.

McNabb rediscovered the value of his slot receiver and tight end against the Giants, hitting Jason Avant and Brent Celek a combined six times for 93 yards and a touchdown. Teams are keeping two safeties deep against the Eagles to take away big plays, forcing the offense to counter with underneath routes and screens. There should be opportunities to work the middle and set up the deep pass against Dallas' 22nd-ranked pass defense.

The Eagles scored 27 points against the Redskins' fourth-ranked defense and followed that up with 40 against the Giants' third-ranked defense. They're pouncing on teams, using all their weaponry. Dallas' three-game win streak has been impressive, but it's also deceiving. Two of those teams -- Kansas City and Seattle -- were cupcakes. The Cowboys have firepower, but not enough to outscore the Eagles. Take Eagles.

Pittsburgh at Denver (+2.5)

Last week: Steelers beat Vikings two weeks ago 27-17; Broncos lost to Ravens 30-7.

This is a battle of two teams trying to show they're for real, but from many different backgrounds. The Broncos came into the season with no expectations, and still had a tough time convincing everyone they were for real during a 6-0 start, even with wins against New England, Dallas and San Diego. Critics were quick to wonder if the 30-7 loss at Baltimore was an accurate predictor for the Broncos in the second half of the season. With a tough schedule still looming, Denver can't afford to fall into a slump, and beating Pittsburgh would be another jolt of confidence for the team.

Pittsburgh is 5-2 but trying to prove they are still the same team that won last year's Super Bowl. The Steelers haven't looked particularly dominant in their last three wins against Detroit, Cleveland and Minnesota, and could be fighting some of the championship hangover. Going on the road and beating a 6-1 Denver team would be a sign that they are gearing up to defend their title.

This game could also have ramifications in January. Despite a slip-up this weekend, the Broncos still lead the AFC West by two games, and the Steelers are an obvious contender in the AFC North. New England and Indianapolis will also be in the mix for one of the AFC's two first-round byes, so there's a chance this game could end up determining which team is resting during the first week of the playoffs.

The Broncos looked as though they were intimidated against the Ravens and their physical style of play. Certainly, they did not match Baltimore's intensity. They will have to do that against the Steelers, who will bring that and more, especially after what they saw the Ravens do to the Broncos.

Ben Roethlisberger leads all quarterbacks who have played seven games with 29 passes of 20 yards or longer, an indication he is not hesitant to attack any coverage over the top. The Broncos, who lead the AFC with 23 sacks, will have to make sure he doesn't have enough time.

As long as Roethlisberger is Pittsburgh's quarterback, the Steelers will give up plenty of sacks. Roethlisberger refuses to give up on plays and sometimes holds the ball for a long time. When he can wiggle free, though, he is great at pushing the ball downfield. If the Broncos can't bring down Roethlisberger when they get the chance, they could give up game-changing plays.

On defense, stopping the run is always a top priority for the Steelers, who haven't allowed a 100-yard rusher in 29 consecutive games (counting playoffs). But that will be especially true against rookie Knowshon Moreno because it will force the Broncos to become one-dimensional and rely on quarterback Kyle Orton.

The Broncos are likely to pass the ball, given that Pittsburgh's pass defense is ranked much lower than its run defense. The concern with that approach is the Steelers are good at generating pressure; Denver will be without standout right tackle Ryan Harris and Orton did not play well under duress last week. The Broncos might have to keep some backs or tight ends to help block, contrary to their normal offensive strategy.

The Broncos have been stout up the middle all season against the run. Baltimore had some success running up the middle, and the Steelers will probably try to test Denver up the middle as well. Nose tackle Ronald Fields will be healthier after dealing with a hamstring injury the week before playing the Ravens, which will help. Denver has to stop the run and force the Steelers to be one-dimensional.

The Steelers seem like a tough matchup for the Broncos, just like the Ravens were. The two AFC North teams do similar things on offense and defense, and Denver was beaten soundly by Baltimore a week ago.

But back at home, refocused after their first loss of the season, the Broncos will play better. They have beaten New England and Dallas at home already in close games, and this one will be similar. Steelers will find a way. Take Steelers.

Arizona at Chicago (-2.5)

Last week: Cardinals lost to Panthers 34-21; Bears beat Browns 30-6.

There's something about being away from Arizona that brings out the best in coach Kent Whisenhunt's team. Once they lead, a Soldier Field crowd already angered over poor defensive play two weeks ago and run of the mill offense last week will quickly turn on the home team.

Expect the Bears to struggle getting Matt Forte going against a run defense that was at the top until getting gouged by Carolina last week and they'll be playing catch-up all game. Take Cardinals.

Kansas City at Jacksonville (-6.5)

Last week: Chiefs lost to Chargers 37-7; Jaguars lost to Titans 30-13.

Jacksonville hadn't allowed a 100-yard rusher all season until Tennessee's Johnson exploded on the defense. Even at the expense of getting lit up against the pass, the Jaguars will go out of their way to snuff out the Chiefs' run game and prove last week was a fluke. That strategy could backfire, as Kansas City has shown flashes in the passing game. Furthermore, Jacksonville's front seven likely won't be able to pressure Matt Cassel, and that could open the door for him to have a big game.

Offensively, look for the Jaguars to hand the ball to Maurice Jones-Drew at least 20 times. Jack Del Rio said the club has diminished David Garrard's ability to audible out of Jacksonville's running plays. The move should help get Jones-Drew involved early and allow the club to take advantage of play-action later in the game. At the end of the day, Jones-Drew will be the difference-maker. Take Jaguars.

Miami at New England (-10.5)

Last week: Dolphins beat Jets 30-25; Patriots beat Buccaneers two weeks ago 35-7.

Coming out of the bye week, the Patriots are rested, healthier, and ready to see if they're for real. As for the Dolphins, they are in the midst of a brutal, brutal stretch of four road games in five games.

A stop in the Meadowlands was successful, but will the one in Foxboro be? If the Dolphins can hang on, they'll prove all they need to. This five-game span is the toughest part of their schedule, too. Will the Patriots continue to thrive? Will Brady continue to be himself, taking observers back to 2007? Maybe that's premature, but if he takes a step back this week, it won't be a major one.

The Dolphins will make things interesting with the wildcat but ultimately the Patriots should prevail, barely. Take points and Dolphins.

Washington at Atlanta (-9.5)

Last week: Redskins lost to Eagles two weeks ago 27-17; Falcons lost to Saints 35-27.

After playing physical games against Chicago, Dallas and New Orleans, the Redskins might have a good upset opportunity. They are coming of their bye and are rested. This is the third team the Falcons will face coming off the bye.

They beat San Francisco and then lost to Dallas coming off the bye. If the Falcons establish their rushing attack and take control of the clock, they will win. They are also 10-1 at the Georgia Dome under second-year coach Mike Smith. Take Falcons.

Green Bay at Tampa Bay (+9.5)

Last week: Packers lost to Vikings 38-26; Buccaneers lost to Patriots two weeks ago 35-7.

The Bucs have spent all season playing a lot like the sorry teams that regularly wore the orange uniforms they're bringing out on Sunday.

QB Josh Freeman isn't likely to change things by himself; he needs help. He likely won't get it against a seasoned Packers team that is suddenly in danger of losing its grip on a playoff berth. Take Packers.

Carolina at New Orleans (-13.5)

Last week: Panthers beat Cardinals 34-21; Saints beat Falcons 35-27.

The Panthers have won seven straight games in Louisiana (including a game at LSU after Hurricane Katrina in 2005), so there's no intimidation factor here. And despite their early struggles, the Panthers are looking a lot more like a perennial playoff contender in recent weeks. So if the Saints are going to drop a game at some point, Carolina's as good a candidate as any.

But then again, the Saints are overdue for one of those blowout victories that were becoming so common last month. And New Orleans proved it can win "ugly" the past two weeks, surviving mistake-filled performances and sluggish starts to run away with big victories. So even if they're not at their best again Sunday, chances are they still have enough ammo to beat the Panthers. The Saints will wait for next week for their blowout when they face the Rams. Carolina keeps it close. Take points and Panthers.

Detroit at Seattle (-9.5)

Last week: Lions lost to Rams 17-10; Seahawks lost to Cowboys 38-17.

Seattle's problem hasn't been beating lesser teams at home as evidenced by the Seahawks' pair of shutouts of St. Louis and Jacksonville. Seattle has had a hard time responding to adversity this season.

Detroit, however, has allowed 24 sacks, fourth-most in the league, and been intercepted 11 times. That's not a good indicator for what will happen in a stadium loud enough that it makes pass protection even tougher. Combine that with the fact the Lions will be starting rookie quarterback Matthew Stafford, and it's going to add up to another lopsided home victory for Seattle. Take Seahawks.

Tennessee at San Francisco (-3.5)

Last week: Titans beat Jaguars 30-13; 49ers lost to Colts 18-14.

Two very similar teams take to the field Sunday. Both are coached by ex-Chicago Bears defensive players and both prefer to run a safe, ground-based offense. The game, however, will come down to the quarterbacks. Both Vince Young and Alex Smith have the fan base excited in their respective cities but neither fully has the trust of the coaching staff.

The 49ers and Titans need to walk a fine line Sunday. The winner will be the team that can make big plays in the passing game but still avoid the costly turnovers. Look for Smith, who has perhaps the better supporting cast at receiver, to have the edge. Take 49ers.

Open date: Buffalo, Minnesota, NY Jets, Oakland, St-Louis and Cleveland.

 

By: Aengus Moorehead @ 15:20 | Category: Football  | Comments: 0 | Permalink