Week 13

November 25 2008 @ 21:39

Favorites were 10-6 straight-up in Week 12 for the second week in a row. Amazingly, six favorites lost outright to their weaker rivals: San Diego, Jacksonville, Cleveland, Denver, Miami and undefeated Tennessee, who fell under the Brett Favre spell. Washington was the only winner who failed to cover and by a mere ½ point.

We were also bystanders to some of the most astonishing blowouts from favorites who basically manhandled their opponents like in the “Big Easy” where the Saints scored at will and outscored the Packers by 22, or in Kansas City where the Bills pummelled the lowly Chiefs by 23. Chicago had a swell afternoon in St-Louis beating the Rams by 24. In Baltimore Donovan McNabb warming up the bench saw his Eagles fall to the Ravens by 29. The list goes on: Atlanta over Carolina by 17, Tampa Bay in the motor city by 18, Pittsburgh casually rumbled through the Bengals by 17. Meanwhile, lost in the shuffle are Dallas, NY Giants and Houston who won by 13, 12 and 10 respectively.

Many favorites were also subjected to a rude awakening came Monday pondering on what just had occured. In Miami, the Dolphins could not figure out the sudden emergence of Matt Cassell and his crew and lost by 20. In the “Big Apple”, the Jets handed an undefeated foe its first faux pas of the season by disposing of the Titans by 21. Denver didn’t have a clue against their divisional rival Raiders and were embarrassed at home by 21, and Jacksonville’s downfall continued at home against the Vikings and lost by 18.

Only two games were decided by a field goal. One by the magic footed Adam Vinatieri in San Diego and a nail-bitter in Seattle where Washington held it all together.

MY RECORD AGAINST THE SPREAD

Last week: 9-7

Season: 89-87

Tennessee at Detroit (10.5)

Last week: Tennessee lost to NY Jets 34-13; Detroit lost to Tampa Bay 38-20.

If you're a Titans fan, it's going to be a magnificent holiday because Tennessee should have no problem getting back on track, both offensively and defensively. The Titans will get their running game cranked up because Detroit's defense, which lacked talent to begin with, is also banged up.

The other good thing for the Titans is that even if they continue to commit penalties and drop passes, it really won't matter because the Lions can't stop anybody. If the defense doesn't give up the points, the offense and special teams will.

Though the Lions are talent-poor throughout their roster, they do have a couple of star-quality players, led by WR Calvin Johnson, who is almost impossible to cover one-on-one. If the Lions hope to keep this game close, Johnson must play a major role.

Another reason to watch is to get a peek at NFL history. No team ever has gone through a 16-game season without winning a single game, but the 0-11 Lions are well on their way, and Thursday will be another step en route to history. The Lions have lost their last four games on Thanksgiving, and all four defeats have been by double digits.

During their successes earlier this season, the Titans jumped on teams early and took control of the game. But that hasn't been the case in recent weeks. The Titans have either trailed or been tied at halftime in four of their last five contests, and it caught up with them in a loss to the Jets. The Titans don't want to let the Lions get interested early on Thursday. They need to bury them from the start.

The only shot the Lions have at stopping anybody is to keep sending blitzes. They threw a couple of new wrinkles at the Bucs and had some success; they must keep being creative. The Lions will give up several touchdowns anyway, but at least blitzing gives them a chance to get a turnover or two in return.

The Lions aren't just bad; they're not even competitive in the NFL.They have given up 30 or more points in seven games this season, including the last three straight. Even if the Lions play well at some point, they've proven that they're not good enough to hold the lead. Two weeks ago, they blew a 10-point lead and, against the Bucs, the Lions took a 17-0 first-quarter lead only to see it evaporated. The Bucs only needed 8:19 of the second quarter to take the lead and eventually win in a rout. The Titans are positioning themselves for the top spot in the AFC playoff run while the Lions are positioning themselves for the top spot in the draft. Take Titans

Seattle at Dallas (-12.5)

Last week: Seattle lost to Washington 20-17; Dallas beat San Francisco 35-22.

Injuries have wrecked coach Mike Holmgren's final season, and the Seahawks have lost seven of their past eight games. The Cowboys, inspired by quarterback Tony Romo’s return from a broken right pinkie, have won consecutive games and are feeling good about themselves for the first time in more than a month.

This will also be a big game for Seattle running back Julius Jones, who's averaging 4.5 yards per carry, and will be out to prove the Cowboys should have offered him a contract at the end of last season.

If the Cowboys don't play solid, gap-control run defense, he will have a big day just like Clinton Portis and Steven Jackson, who have had 100-yard games against the Cowboys this season.

The Cowboys must beat Seattle to set up their playoff run in December. Only one NFC team since 1991 has not made the playoffs with 10 wins. The Cowboys need three more wins to reach that total and beating Seattle would take a lot of pressure off of them, heading into a tough December that features road games against Pittsburgh and Philadelphia and home games against Baltimore and the New York Giants.

The key is Tony Romo. When he's playing well and the offense is putting up big numbers, it puts tremendous pressure on the opposing offense to be one-dimensional, and takes pressure off the Cowboys' defense.

Romo passed for more than 300 yards last week, and as he deals with less pain in his pinkie and gets more in sync with Terrell Owens, Jason Witten, Patrick Crayton and Roy Williams, his numbers should sore as a result.

A big game against Seattle will be just what Romo and the Cowboys need heading into a December that will determine whether they enter the playoffs on a roll or become one of the most disappointing teams in franchise history.

For Seattle, the return of QB Matt Hasselbeck was supposed to breathe some life into the Seahawks' stagnant offense. Instead, Hasselbeck has thrown five interceptions in the past two games. It is obvious that he is not only rusty, but not completely healthy after missing five games while rehabbing his back. A bulging disc was causing numbness in his right leg. The offense still has not scored more than 17 points in seven games against non-NFC West opponents.

The Seahawks need to limit their own mistakes and make the Cowboys work for everything they get. They can't hold up their end offensively as it is, so allowing the Cowboys easy scores or giving them field position with turnovers will only create a hole the Seahawks are incapable of crawling out of.

The Cowboys have a lot more at stake than Seattle, which means they should be focused and determined. The Cowboys have more talent than the Seahawks, and their defense is coming off consecutive strong performances. Tony Romo’s beam returned last week and if the Cowboys can keep Terrell Owens from whining and being a distraction during the week, then there's no good reason why they shouldn't blow out the Seahawks, who must make a long flight on a short week. Take Cowboys.

Arizona at Philadelphia (-2.5)

Last week: Arizona lost to NY Giants 37-29; Philadelphia lost to Baltimore 36-7.

The first Thanksgiving game in Lincoln Financial Field history brings an incredible number of storylines for both teams, starting with the quarterbacks.

Eagles coach Andy Reid stunned Philadelphians by benching Donovan McNabb at halftime Sunday against Baltimore with the Eagles only down 10-7, lifting his 10-year veteran for second-year pro Kevin Kolb Then he stunned the city again Monday, announcing that McNabb is still his starting quarterback after the Eagles dropped to 5-5-1 following their 36-7 whooping.

Meanwhile, the MVP candidacy marches on for Kurt Warner who's one victory away from leading Arizona to its first division title since 1998. Warner's renaissance has the Cardinals thinking big. He's the league's top-rated passer (101.4), and his 4,830 passing yards are tops in the NFL.

The Eagles aren't thinking playoffs right now, even if Reid's sticking with McNabb suggests the opposite. They've got other issues to hammer out. Technically, they're still in the race, but they need to win their five remaining games -- three against division opponents -- to give themselves a chance to make the postseason. Sounds a little too unrealistic for a team that hasn't won since early November.

For most of his career, Donovan McNabb has been a caretaker with the football. Lately, he has been giving up the ball left and right. McNabb has thrown seven interceptions in the past four games and lost two fumbles in the past two games. He recently admitted that he's pressing, and getting yanked at halftime against Baltimore couldn't have helped his psyche. He needs to get back to throwing short routes underneath, and the coaches need to dial up some more runs to factor play-action back into the playbook. Right now, opponents are flooding the secondary and narrowing McNabb's passing lanes.

Warner is one of the NFL's most accurate passers, especially on deep balls, but he's also a concrete statue in the pocket and prone to fumbling. He already has fumbled nine times this year, losing six. This is a good matchup for Jim Johnson's defense, which leads the NFL with 39 sacks.

The Eagles are winless in their last three games, and they're stuck in a team-wide funk with problems that go beyond the quarterback. The Cardinals are sniffing their first postseason berth in almost a decade and just gave the defending Super Bowl champs a tough game. It's hard to think the Eagles can suddenly snap out of it against an Arizona team catching its stride. Take Cardinals

New Orleans at Tampa Bay (-3.5)

Last week: New Orleans beat Green Bay 51-29; Tampa Bay beat Detroit 38-20.

These NFC South rivals have gone in opposite directions since the Saints beat the Bucs at the Superdome in Week 1.

The Bucs have won eight of 10 since and have moved into a tie for first place in the division title race with Carolina. The Saints, meanwhile, won one, lost one until snapping out of that trend by crushing Green Bay On Monday to enter this matchup riding a two-game winning streak.

The Saints' uneven season can be attributed to two things -- their inability to keep opponents from scoring on them and their inability to win on the road, where they are 1-4. One thing the Saints don't have a problem with, of course, is scoring. That makes this an intriguing matchup.

The Bucs again have produced one of the best defenses in the league, and while the unit tends to give up some big plays in the passing game -- New Orleans' strength -- it still is a tough team to score touchdowns against.

Those two forces collide again Sunday at Raymond James Stadium, where the Bucs are unbeaten this year. If the Bucs were a little more potent offensively, this would have all the markings of a shootout. That is something the Bucs want to avoid.

The Bucs are second to last in the league in red-zone proficiency and have had a hard time holding the ball recently. If those problems aren't corrected, the Saints could deal the Bucs a big upset and go a long way toward reshaping their postseason hopes.

However, the Bucs play their best at home while the Saints struggle on the road. The mitigating factor is Drew Brees at quarterback. He is the NFL's top rated QB with the NFL's top offence and last Monday night they scored 51 points on a Packers' defence that going into the game, played exceptional man-to-man coverage every week.

The Saints have perhaps the NFL's most explosive passing attack. They can run up the score if given a chance and already have proved to be proficient at attacking the Bucs' defense. The Bucs lack the quick-strike capability of winning a shootout. With their plodding offense, their best approach is to run the ball and keep possession of it for long periods. That will limit the number of Saints possessions, which should help to keep the game close and manageable.

The Saints need this game more than the Bucs and are capable of exploiting some weaknesses in the Bucs' pass coverage. The Bucs’offense is starting to pick up steam and gain confidence. Look for the Saints to keep this game close, but look for the Bucs to make just enough big plays on defense to keep their perfect home record intact but the Saints will keep it close. Take Saints.

Pittsburgh at New England (-1.5)

Last week: Pittsburgh beat Cincinnati 27-10; New England beat Miami 48-28.

This game has huge ramifications for both teams. The Steelers are trying to hold off the Ravens in the AFC North and catch the Jets for the No. 2 seed in the conference. The Patriots need a victory to keep pace with the Colts and Ravens in the wild card race and avoid falling into the morass of five-loss teams that currently includes the Dolphins and Bills in their own division, among others. Another conference loss would also deal a blow to the Pats' tie-breaking hopes.

These teams are traditional foes, with the Pats getting the better of the Steelers in a pair of AFC title games, and the Steelers ending New England's record winning streak in 2004. Patriots head coach Bill Belichick likens their meetings to a division encounter. Both teams are hard-nosed and physical, and both play tough in the cold weather.

QB Matt Cassell has shredded the last two defenses he has seen, the Jets and Dolphins, but neither is on par with Pittsburgh's. The Steelers have done a wonderful job of shutting down just about every top receiver in the league, everyone from Plaxico Burress to Santana Moss to T.J. Houshmandzadeh. And they just don't allow big pass plays. The longest pass against them this season is 65 yards, and that came on a deflection that should have been an interception.

The Steelers get after quarterbacks like no other team in the league, thanks to James Harrison and LaMarrWoodley, who have combined for 22.5 sacks. Cassel has shown an increasing ability to recognize pressure, hang in the pocket, and make his throws downfield. He has been throwing more and more to his second and third reads in recent weeks, but that can continue only if he has time to look for them.

The Patriots have settled into a disturbing trend of needing to outscore their opponents. Even the lowly Rams moved the ball on them at will for a half. The Pats probably aren't going to top 30 points against the Steelers D, so they'll need to slow the Pittsburgh attack. The run defense has been solid, but the pass rush needs to improve to help the secondary, which tends to play soft in a bend-but-don't-break approach that has yielded more breaking than bending.

The Patriots have had problems applying pressure on the quarterback, although most teams -- aside from the Bengals -- do not seem to have that problem against the Steelers. Roethlisberger should be able to make big plays against a weak Patriots secondary, if he gets the time.

The Patriots are so much better than they were six weeks ago. The question is whether that improvement means they're good enough to beat the Steelers; even at home the answer appears to be no. The Steelers have what it takes to harass Cassel, and the odds of him throwing for a third-straight 400-yard game are remote, to say the least, against the league's No. 1 defense. The Patriots are going to have trouble running the ball, which means they're going to have to spread the field and see if that helps Cassel. That's asking a lot of a young quarterback, even one who has matured so quickly. Take Steelers.

San Francisco at Buffalo (-6.5)

Last week: San Francisco lost to Dallas 35-22; Buffalo beat Kansas City 54-31.

The Bills are already on the outside looking in as far as the AFC race is concerned, so they don't have any room for error. With big AFC East games looming the next two weeks, the Bills can't afford to look past San Francisco, which is trying to salvage what is left of its season.

Are the Bills as good as the 54 points they scored against the KC Chiefs or should there be a concern that Kansas City also scored 31 on the Bills defence? A key factor is that this game is on the East coast. The San Francisco 49ers are 3-27 in games that start at 10 am Pacific Time.The Bills need this one bad as the next four are tough, but too many points for my taste. Buffalo wins but the Niners keep it close. Take points and 49ers.

Baltimore at Cincinnati (6.5)

Last week: Baltimore beat Philadelphia 36-7; Cincinnati lost to Pittsburgh 27-10.

How badly do the Bengals want to win and avenge their 17-10 loss at Baltimore in the opener? Very. But wishing and hoping won't work against the Ravens. They have too much offense and defense for Cincinnati, and too much riding on the game to look past the bewitched, bothered and bewildered Bengals. Baltimore is in the playoff hunt because it has what the Bengals lack, strong veteran leadership. Take Ravens.

Indianapolis at Cleveland (4.5)

Last week: Indianapolis beat San Diego 23-20; Cleveland lost to Houston 16-6.

Neither team was imposing until recently, when the Colts began resembling their old selves. The Browns, meanwhile, fit the mold of teams that are out of the race and fall apart with much less to play for than their opponents.

Beating the Colts would be one of the Browns' bigger wins of the past 10 years. This is just another game for the Colts, but they do want to make the playoffs and they're familiar with taking care of such business. Take Colts.

Carolina at Green Bay (-2.5)

Last week: Carolina lost to Atlanta 45-28; Green Bay lost to New Orleans 51-29.

The fact that Atlanta scored 45 points on Carolina gives the Packers some excellent game film to watch before this one. With only three loses this year, the 8-3 Panthers have a Division title shot, but they have not played well in the last three weeks. They lost in Atlanta, struggled against Detroit and a 17-6 brutal victory over Oakland. Green Bay has regressed defensively, 51 points allowed to New Orleans last week, but I think it was a one game problem, because the week previous they allowed only three points to the Chicago Bears. Carolina failed to gain one yard in the first quarter to Atlanta, they may struggle again in the very cold confines of Green Bay. Take Packers.

Denver at NY Jets (-6.5)

Last week: Denver lost to Oakland 31-10; NY Jets beat Tennessee 34-13.

The Jets have come very far in the last four weeks, winning on the road against three above-.500 teams, including an undefeated one. But they might be due to play a little bit below their potential, and if they do, inconsistent Denver still possesses enough weapons on offense to take advantage of such a lapse. The Broncos also figure to be angry after a disappointing loss at home to woeful Oakland. Look for a back-and-forth kind of game, but in the end, the confident Jets make one more stand on defense and escape with a close victory. Take points and Broncos.

Miami at St-Louis (7.5)

Last week: Miami lost to New England 48-28; St-Louis lost Chicago 27-3.

Battered and bruised, the Rams have been playing as if brain dead in recent weeks. It's not as if the team has quit, but the enthusiasm and confidence aren't there. Miami, meanwhile, needs to win this game to stay in playoff contention down the stretch. It's hard to see the Rams snapping out of their funk against the Dolphins. Take Dolphins.

NY Giants at Washington (3.5)

Last week: NY Giants beat Arizona 37-29; Washington beat Seattle 20-17.

The Giants' running game was too much for Washington in the season opener and it will be that way again Sunday. The same is true of their pass rush. On the ground, even if Brandon Jacobs isn't healthy, New York will be able to run successfully at Washington's ends. The Redskins linebackers didn't fill the holes well in that game, but the blocking had something to do with that. If Jacobs plays, his 264 pounds combined with fullback Madison Hedgecock 266 pounds will wear down the Redskins' defense. Take Giants.

Atlanta at San Diego (-5.5)

Last week: Atlanta beat Carolina 45-28; San Diego lost to Indianapolis 23-20.

I am going to roll with the Falcons all the way to the playoffs, but they must take this Chargers team at 4-7 with the same urgency as any team in football. San Diego has lost 4 games this year in the dying moments, sometimes on the final play of the game. If the had finished these games the way that they did last year the Chargers could very easily be 8-3 instead of 4-7. This game may be more competitive than it looks from the win/loss record standpoint. Of the Falcons four losses, three have come on the road and as fantastic as Matt Ryan has been, his QB rating on the road is 72.0. Similarly, running back Michael Turner has 12 rushing TDs at home with only one on the road. I think that San Diego will show up and give Atlanta a tough game. Take Chargers.

Kansas City at Oakland (-2.5)

Last week: Kansas City lost to Buffalo 54-31; Oakland beat Denver 31-10.

The Raiders, fresh from their best showing of the season, are playing a Chiefs team they dominated earlier this season, and playing at home. Last week the Chiefs allowed 54 points to a Buffalo Bills team that the Raiders held in check for most of a game earlier this season. Therefore, it's logical to think that the Raiders should be able to manhandle the Chiefs and build some more momentum heading into the final quarter of the season.

The Chiefs are in disarray, playing with an inexperienced quarterback and in the midst of their worst season in a long time. Look for the Raiders to control the tempo of this game, run all over the Chiefs and prevail. Take Raiders.

Chicago at Minnesota (-2.5)

Last week: Chicago beat St-Louis 27-3; Minnesota beat Jacksonville 30-12.

The Bears are 6-5; the Vikings are also 6-5 heading into December. This Sunday night game could determine first place in the NFC North. A similarity is that both teams have exceptional run defences. The Bears allow only 80 yards per game while the Vikings allow 10 yards less, only 70 per game. The difference is consistency. Against Tennessee, the Bears allowed only 20 total rushing yards; against St. Louis last week, only 14 yards allowed. In between those two games, Green Bay destroyed Chicago's run defence for over 200 yards. Back in Week 7, the Vikings Chester Taylor and Adrian Peterson were more than effective in a 48-41 loss. I don't think the quarterbacks will determine this game, it's the running backs. I'll take Peterson and his 1,180 yards already accumulated. Take Vikings.

Jacksonville at Houston (-2.5)

Last week: Jacksonville lost to Minnesota 30-12; Houston beat Cleveland 16-6.

With a turnover-prone quarterback and a depleted running back unit, the Texans are likely to have problems offensively. The Jaguars enter the game with even more turmoil in recent weeks and will try to end a two-game losing skid. They had four turnovers against the Vikings and couldn't get their running game going. It'll be a battle of two teams trying to salvage seasons in which both have performed far below expectations. With the Texans being at home on their first Monday night appearance, those intangibles could put them over the top. Take Texans.

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By: Aengus Moorehead @ 21:39 | Category: Football | Comments: 0 | Permalink

Week 12

November 19 2008 @ 20:42

Favorites were 10-6 straight- up in Week 11, but for the second straight week four of them didn't cover the point spread.

As a 13 ½ point favorite, the Panthers beat the Lions 31-22, meaning that through 11 weeks the top favorite has covered the spread only twice. The Dolphins, who were 10 ½ -point favorites over the Raiders, won 17-15; the Colts, favored by 8 ½ , beat the Texans 33-27; and the Steelers, favored by 3 ½ , beat the Chargers 11-10 after being robbed of a touchdown on the final play by an official's error.

MY RECORD AGAINST THE SPREAD

Last week: 11-5
Season: 80-80

Cincinnati at Pittsburgh (-9.5)

Last week: Cincinnati tied with Philadelphia 13-13; Pittsburgh beat San Diego 11-10.

The Bengals have struggled with the Steelers at Paul Brown Stadium, losing the past eight meetings in Cincinnati. But, for some reason, they've had better luck at Heinz Field, winning two of the past three games.

The Bengals have had trouble scoring points, not managing more than 23 in any game this season. And it likely won't get any better against the Steelers, who have the league's top defense and allow fewer points than any other team but Tennessee.

One of the interesting subplots to the game, however, is what type of retaliation, if any, the Bengals will try against receiver Hynes Ward. It was Ward who delivered a vicious block on rookie linebacker Keith Rivers in the first meeting, breaking his jaw and ending his season. Ward's blocks are making defenders watch his every move, but he is also commanding attention for another reason: He has back-to-back 100-yard receiving games for the first time in six years. Ward is coming off an 11-catch performance against the Chargers.

The No. 1 key is protecting QB Ryan Fitzpatrick against the blitzing Steelers, who sacked him seven times in a 38-10 Bengals' Week 7 home loss on Oct. 19. Fitzpatrick needs to help the line by getting rid of the ball quickly. Fitzpatrick, who will make his sixth straight start, knows to attack the area vacated by the blitzer. He won't have much time to settle in the pocket and go through his progressions, so look for quick-out and quick-slant patterns to take advantage of the aggressive Steelers defense.

If anybody would be tired playing on a short week, it might be the Bengals, who had to play an entire extra period in their tie with the Eagles. The good news for the Steelers is that they came out of the Chargers game without any additional injuries, something that has not happened much this season. The Steelers let the Bengals hang around in the first meeting before putting them away with three fourth-quarter TDs.

However the weather could play a major factor in this caper as it did for the Steelers last Sunday against San Diego. With temperature hovering around 23 degrees and 50% chance of snow, I don’t expect a high scoring affair. Take points and Bengals.

Carolina at Atlanta (-1.5)

Last week: Carolina beat Detroit 31-22; Atlanta lost to Denver 24-20.

The Panthers could deliver a severe blow to the Falcons' improbable playoff aspirations. A defeat would be Atlanta's third in the NFC South Division, meaning the best the Falcons could finish would be 3-3.

Entering this game, the Falcons are 1-2 in division play and will face NFC South foes in three of their next four games.

The Falcons are two games behind Carolina, one game behind Tampa Bay (7-3) and one game ahead of New Orleans (5-5).

"We're getting into a stretch where we've got three division games here in the next four weeks," Falcons coach Mike Smith said. "Two of the division games are here at home. Those are the most important games."

Rookie quarterback Matt Ryan has played six games since facing the Carolina Panthers in Week 4 and is more confident in what he's doing. Ryan had a quarterback passing rating of 71.5 in last week’s 24-20 loss to the Broncos.

It was his fourth-worst game of the season. He had lower ratings against Philadelphia (68.1), Carolina (60.8) and Tampa Bay (29.6). Ryan threw five of his six interceptions and two of his 11 touchdown passes in those four games, all losses.

Ryan did not have a touchdown pass for the third time this season. He also didn't throw touchdown passes in losses to Tampa Bay and Carolina. In the first game against Carolina, Ryan's receivers dropped six passes.

The Falcons want to hang their hat on the running game. But running back Michael Turner has not rushed for more than 100 yards in four of the past five games. He has 228 carries for 971 yards. Before this season, Turner had 228 carries in four seasons with San Diego for 1,257 yards. Turner has had at least 25 carries in four of the past five games. In the first matchup, the Panthers held Turner to 56 yards on 18 carries.

The Panthers are coming off sub-par performances against Oakland and Detroit. They seem to do just enough to beat lower-quality teams. They survived four Delhomme interceptions against Oakland and needed a record-setting rushing performance to squeak by Detroit 31-22. The Falcons know they need this one to keep their magical season alive. Look for the upset. Take Falcons.

Philadelphia at Baltimore (-1.5)

Last week: Philadelphia tied with Cincinnati 13-13; Baltimore lost to NY Giants 30-10.

Both teams pretty much have to win to remain in the playoff picture. The Ravens are 6-4, and the Eagles are 5-4-1. A loss probably drops either team out of the race.

After playing four of the last five games on the road, the Ravens get to play two straight at home. The home crowd should give them a lift.

After getting handled by the Giants on Sunday, the Ravens have to prove they are real. They have only beaten one team that has a winning record, and that's Miami, which didn't have a winning record at the time. The Ravens also must prove they have something left in the tank. They have a lot of older players on defense, and there are questions surrounding whether they have enough left down the stretch.

It will be interesting watching both defenses. The Eagles blitz as much as the Ravens. The major difference is that the Eagles have a veteran quarterback in Donovan MacNabb, and the Ravens have a rookie in Joe Flacco.

Something is wrong with the 10-year veteran quarterback, who hasn't thrown a touchdown pass in the first quarter since Week 2 against Dallas. McNabb had overcome some slow starts during the team's three-game win streak in October, but he's played terribly in the past two games, completing just 47.2 percent of his passes against the Giants and 48.3 against the Bengals. If the Eagles are going to turn around their season, it must start with their franchise leader.

The Eagles were outmuscled and outmanned at scrimmage against a Bengals team that had just 10 sacks and hadn't put pressure on anyone. That's not a good sign going into their game against the Ravens, who have one of the league's biggest, most powerful defensive lines. Coach Andy Reid builds his offense around tough, hard-nosed bullies on the line, but this year's line isn't getting a push off the ball and clearing holes for Brian Westbrook.

The Eagles tied the Bengals. The Bengals? The Ravens need this game and they will be energized by the home crowd. They will have no problem taking out the Eagles' running game, especially after the Giants ran through the Ravens for 207 yards on the ground last Sunday. The Eagles will try to confuse Flacco with blitzes, but the rookie will remain composed. He'll hit enough big plays off the play action to lift the Ravens to victory. Take Ravens.

New England at Miami (-1.5)

Last week: New England lost to NY Jets 34-31; Miami beat Oakland 17-15.

This could be a defining game for both teams, but in completely different ways. If Miami can beat New England, they will be two up on the Patriots in the division with five games to go. They will also own the tie-breaker against the Pats because they have already beaten them once before; 38-13 back in Week 3. For the Patriots, a loss to Miami would really jeopardize their playoff chances. It would be their fifth loss, meaning they would likely have to win four of their last five to get in the playoffs. One thing working in their favor is that Miami has been average at best over their last two games, narrow wins over Oakland and Seattle.

When the Dolphins broke out the Wildcat package for the first time in their stunning win over the Patriots, it jolted the coaching landscape when a rookie head coach (Tony Sparano) managed to essentially outsmart the league's resident genius (Bill Belichick). Not to mention, a young Dolphins squad also outplayed a veteran Patriots squad. Don't think for a moment this New England team has forgotten about that. Belichick is likely to put together a gameplan with the hopes of putting the Dolphins back in their place. Of course, that rookie head coach will also be doing the same.

The Wildcat is no longer a surprise. And while that doesn't mean the Dolphins will abandon the package entirely, it will still be critical for the Dolphins to find success within the core aspects of their offense as well. Quarterback Chad Pennington will need to be especially crisp against a much more talented group than the previous two teams (Seattle and Oakland) that nearly knocked off Miami over the past two weeks. The success in the Wildcat during the first game was predicated by success in the passing game outside of that innovative package. This time, it will be even more critical to have more of the same.

If the Dolphins want a shot at the playoffs, a win will be critical. But it won't come easy. By embarrassing the Patriots in the first game of this season, the Dolphins will be prime targets for the wrath of Bill Belichick. This game will serve as a very clear indicator into just how far Miami has come since its 1-15 season from a year ago. Now that Belichick knows the Dolphins are primed for a battle, though, it could be too much for a young Miami team to handle. Take Patriots.

NY Jets at Tennessee (-5.5)

Last week: NY Jets beat New England 34-31; Tennessee beat Jacksonville 24-14.

It's getting to the point where NFL fans who brushed off the Titans initially might need to start paying attention. Tennessee is just the 11th team since the AFL-NFL merger in 1970 to start the season 10-0; five of those first 10 teams went on to win the Super Bowl. Are these Titans Super Bowl material? Time -- and perhaps a win over the AFC East-leading Jets -- will tell.

Titans quarterback Kerry Collins s re-energized at 35 and once again the leader of a football team. He's one of the main reasons Tennessee is 10-0. He has thrown five touchdown passes over the past two weeks. Brett Favre 39, is still working his magic as quarterback of the Jets. Watching these graybeards operate should be fun.

The playoffs are still a ways away, but Sunday's game could be a sneak preview of what fans at LP Field might see in January. The Titans already are closing in on home-field advantage in the AFC. The Jets may become one of the most dangerous teams in the conference. It's not unreasonable to suggest these two teams will square off again. This will be an opportunity to see how they match up.

Matt Cassel threw for 400 yards against the Jets last week, and their suspect secondary could be tested again this week. Kerry Collins threw touchdown passes of 56 and 38 yards to Justin Gage against Jacksonville last week to key a Titans comeback victory.

Tennessee has built its perfect record by running the ball and stopping the run. The Titans are seventh in the league in rushing offense and 10th in rushing defense. The Jets are ninth and fourth, respectively in those categories. Running back Thomas Jones (854 yards) leads the AFC in rushing.

Brett Favre was on an ugly interception pace a few weeks back, but now he's just throwing touchdowns. Favre has 18 TDs in 10 games, including two last week against the Patriots. The Titans need to apply pressure and force him into mistakes.

The Titans have found ways to win each week. They'll do it again but the Jets will keep it close. Take points and Jets.

Houston at Cleveland (-2.5)

Last week: Houston lost to Indianapolis 33-27; Cleveland beat Buffalo 29-27.

The Texans’ ability to scare the Colts on the road speaks to their ability to hang with teams better than Cleveland. The sheer weight of the record, needing a 5-1 finish just to match last year’s tepid 8-8, threatens to erode the team’s will. They have played better on the road recently than at home. The Browns, on the other hand, have shown signs of life. They are playing with a talented, charismatic young quarterback who is highly motivated to get his era off to a flying start. Take Browns.

San Francisco at Dallas (-10.5)

Last week: San Francisco beat St-Louis 35-17; Dallas beat Washington 14-10.

The 49ers, however, are playing much better under coach Mike Singletary. He commands his players' respect and he has already proved he'll accept nothing but their best effort every play. And the players have responded by playing as hard as they can every snap. If the Cowboys don't match their intensity, San Francisco will give them all they can handle.

For the first time in more than a month, the Cowboys' offense will hit on all cylinders and they should prevail but the spread is too high. Take points and 49ers.

Tampa Bay at Detroit (7.5)

Last week: Tampa Bay beat Minnesota 19-13; Detroit lost to Carolina 31-22.

The key to beating the Lions is to play things safe, run the ball and just wait for them to beat themselves. Whether it's a blown coverage, bad penalty or untimely turnover, the Lions will make the mistakes that will get them beat. QB Daunte Culpepper is still struggling to learn the offense because he was signed less than three weeks ago and there are still too many blown opportunities in the passing game. It's going to be a few more weeks before Culpepper gets comfortable with the timing with his receivers and that means the Bucs, to win this game, have to stay out of the way and let the Lions do their thing. Take Buccaneers.

Minnesota at Jacksonville (-2.5)

Last week: Minnesota lost to Tampa Bay 19-13; Jacksonville lost to Tennessee 24-14.

A win won't salvage the Jaguars' season, but it could go a long way in helping to start the huge rebuilding process this teams faces. Meanwhile, the Vikings control of their playoff destiny and are building a competitive team for years to come.

Because of both teams' reliance on the run, this game could be very short. Peterson likely won't put forth a huge performance against the Jaguars struggling defense because of the coaching staff's ability to put together sound game plans.

Actually, Minnesota's passing attack is what might give the Jags problems.

Jacksonville continues to demonstrate it doesn't have the firepower to put defenses on their heels. But if the team can get Taylor and Jones-Drew on track, Garrard could complete key passes off play-action -- which also seems to be the case for Peterson and the Vikings. Take Vikings.

Buffalo at Kansas City (2.5)

Last week: Buffalo lost to Cleveland 29-27; Kansas City lost to New Orleans 30-20.

Sooner or later the Chiefs will win again and this well could be the week. The Kansas City defense is weak and injury-depleted but at least it won't be facing one of the league's hottest quarterbacks, as the Chiefs have done the past four weeks. While Marshawn Lynch and Fred Jackson should get their yards and Lee Evans will make a big play or two, Thigpen and the Chiefs will find a way to do more against an injury-weakened Buffalo secondary. Take Chiefs.

Chicago at St-Louis (7.5)

Last week: Chicago lost to Green Bay 37-3; St-Louis lost to San Francisco 35-16.

When you look at all the statistics from last Sunday's Green Bay/Chicago game, I don't know if it shows how good the Packers played or how bad the Bears played. Chicago had only nine first downs compared to 24 for Green Bay. Chicago had only 83 rushing yards compared to 200 for Green Bay. And Chicago lost the time of possession battle by more than 15 minutes. But the Bears are still in the running for a division title in every way. They are 5-5 and so are Green Bay and Minnesota. It gives the Bears tremendous purpose, not just in this game but also in the next five contests. This is a lot of points for the Bears to overcome but the Rams have lost games of 35-16 (San Francisco), 47-3 (New York Jets), 34-13 (Arizona) and 23-16 (New England). Take Bears.

Oakland at Denver (-9.5)

Last week: Oakland lost to Miami 17-15; Denver beat Atlanta 24-20.

The Raiders have been absolutely miserable on offense since Tom Cable arrived as coach, going without an offensive touchdown in 13 quarters and averaging just 8.3 points in six games. Denver will look to build an early lead and put the ball in JaMarcus Russell’s hands, while putting its crowd to work in hopes of drawing silly Oakland penalties.

I am not sure which Raiders team is going to show up. The one that has competed so well of late, in a two-point loss to Miami and against a strong Carolina team or the one that was completely blanked by the Falcons the week before that; but I know this: the Broncos are going to score points. Take Broncos.

NY Giants at Arizona (3.5)

Last week: NY Giants beat Baltimore 30-10; Arizona beat Seattle 26-20.

This is a really interesting game, For Arizona, they can clinch first place in the NFC West with a win against the Giants and losses by San Francisco (at Dallas) and Seattle (home to Washington). It is a distinct possibility. Atlanta's Mike Smith will probably win NFC Coach of the Year but Ken Whisenhunt, in just his second year, should get some consideration. In terms of talent, Arizona at home can compete with the Giants in every aspect of perimeter football. The question is, can they compete in the interior? The Giants ran for over 200 yards on a good Baltimore defensive front seven. If they have similar success in Arizona, they will win easily and should. Take Giants.

Washington at Seattle (3.5)

Last week: Washington lost to Dallas 14-10; Seattle lost to Arizona 26-20.

The Redskins felt like they owed the Seahawks at least one, even before Zorn and Alexander got involved. The Seahawks knocked the Redskins out of the playoffs last season (35-14) and also in 2005 (20-10) -- both times at Qwest Field. The Redskins are just too balanced (No. 13 on offense, No. 4 on defense) and have too much to play for to stub their postseason hopes this week. The Seahawks just don't have enough answers -- or is that too many unanswered questions? Take Redskins.

Indianapolis at San Diego (-2.5)

Last week: Indianapolis beat Houston 33-27; San Diego lost to Pittsburgh 11-10.

This game pits the 6-4 Colts against the 4-6 Chargers. Very quietly, the Colts have won three straight games over New England, Pittsburgh and Houston. The Colts don't dominate any more, like most NFL teams, they just get by. It's become a struggle, a challenge each and every week. It will be another struggle against San Diego. Without former FB Lorenzo Neal, the point of attack blocks have not been there for LaDainian Tomlinson, and it's been a struggle for him, too. At least the Colts appear to be improving. They had 474 yards of offence against Houston last week, and there is a better chance of them continuing that success than there is of the Chargers coming to life on Sunday night. Take Colts.

Green Bay at New Orleans (-2.5)

Last week: Green Bay beat Chicago 37-3; New Orleans beat Kansas City 30-20.

The teams have identical 5-5 records and they are very similar in terms of points scored and points allowed. An advantage for the Saints is that they do play their best football at home, winning four of five. The only team to beat them in New Orleans was Atlanta, 24-20. Although the QB advantage goes to Drew Brees due to his experience, I also think it goes to him in terms of his overall performance this season. He was 25 of 36 last week in Kansas City. I do like the way the Packers have competed over the past three weeks: a three point loss to Tennessee, a one point loss in Minnesota and a dominating win over Chicago. It is unlikely the Saints will catch the Carolina Panthers in the division, but the Packers can still win the NFC North. Take Packers.

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By: Aengus Moorehead @ 20:42 | Category: Football | Comments: 0 | Permalink

Week 11

November 15 2008 @ 18:35

Favored teams were 6-6-2 during Week 10. However, four of those teams did not cover the spread: Miami favored by 8 ½ beat Seattle 21-19; San Diego, favored by 14 ½, defeated Kansas City 20-19; Minnesota, favored by 2 ½ over Green Bay, won 28-27, while Arizona, favored by 9 ½ stopped the 49ers by a 29-24 score.

MY RECORD AGAINST THE SPREAD

Last week: 9-5
Season: 69-75

NY Jets at New England (-3.5)

Last week: NY Jets beat St-Louis 47-3; New England beat Buffalo 20-10.

On one side is the aging gunslinger. On the other is the career backup suddenly coming into his own. The expectation is that Brett Favre is more capable of winning this game and Matt Cassel more likely to lose it, but Favre is the lifetime interceptions leader for a reason, and Cassel keeps managing games efficiently.

In last week's 47-3 victory over St. Louis, Favre had an interception-free game for the first time since opening day. He must keep that up against an opportunistic New England defense that is excellent at disguising its looks and coverages. In New England's 19-10 victory in September, the Jets sacked Cassel three times, but weren't really able to disrupt his rhythm. Now that they have much game film on Cassel to study, they need to use that to their advantage and keep him off-balance as much as possible.

Favre basically comes in two flavors nowadays -- playmaker and turnover machine. If the Pats can suppress the first and encourage the second, they should be in business. The key is holding their coverage downfield even after the play appears over, because that's when Favre is at his freelancing best. It will also be up to the coaching staff to confuse the 39-year-old into throwing into coverage. Favre did that in the teams' first meeting, resulting in the turnover that swung the game in New England's favor.

The Jets rank second in the NFL with 31 sacks and tied for third with four defensive touchdowns, and they're first with 14 forced fumbles. They make life particularly harrowing for opposing quarterbacks by bringing pressure from almost every angle. Cassel has greatly improved his ball protection skills, but he fumbled on Sunday against the Bills and can ill afford to turn the ball over against the Jets.

There's a reason the Patriots have won 11 of their last 12 against the Jets. They've consistently been more talented and better coached. However both gaps have shrunk considerably, especially since Mangini took over. This caper will come down to a field goal. Take Jets.

Denver at Atlanta (-5.5)

Last week: Denver beat Cleveland 34-30; Atlanta beat New Orleans 34-20.

This one pits two of the league's top young quarterbacks: Denver's Jay Cutler and Atlanta rookie Matt Ryan. With each start Cutler is proving that he was a better pick than Vince Young or Matt Leinart in the 2006 draft. Cutler is the only one of the three who remains a starter. Young was replaced by journeyman Kerry Collins in Tennessee. Leinart is watching Kurt Warner in Arizona.

Ryan, the first quarterback drafted in 2008, shows he can make all of the throws and has the Falcons are off to an improbable 6-3 start.

The Falcons are undefeated at home with victories over Detroit, Kansas City, Chicago and New Orleans. They are masters of jumping out to early leads. Last week against the Saints they scored on three of their first four possessions to go up 17-6 at halftime. They led 21-0 against Detroit, 14-0 against Kansas City and 6-0 against Chicago after the first quarter.

They have outscored the opposition 75-17 in the first quarter. Those 75 points make them tops in the NFL. That bodes well against Denver’s defense which continues to be a mess. There's a long-shot chance cornerback Champ Bailey could return but the defense will be playing with three linebackers who started the season on the bench. Denver is wildly inconsistent against the run. Atlanta’s RB Michael Turner victimized the Broncos as a backup in San Diego. While Ryan has been a revelation, you can bet the Falcons would be happy to pound away at a smallish defense that has yielded at least 4.6 yards per carry in all but two games and is vulnerable to the long run.

Atlanta’s schedule is tough in the last seven with the only easy game being at home against St. Louis to end the season. Denver has had a bunch of injuries at RB, so many that they had to re-sign Tatum Bell. He's a former Bronco, so the adjustment should be smooth. The most interesting battle in this game for me is the passing game of Cutler versus the Atlanta secondary. The three interceptions off Drew Brees tell that the Falcons secondary is improving. This is a tough game to pick. One the one hand, you have the Broncos with extra time to prepare, but Atlanta is so good at home and at winning the time of possession battle with Turner and should prevail. Take Falcons.

Chicago at Green Bay (-3.5)

Last week: Chicago lost to Tennessee 21-14; Green Bay lost to Minnesota 28-27.

The Packers and Bears are in a dogfight with the Minnesota Vikings for the NFC North lead. The Packers are in the worst position of the three and absolutely need to win this game to stay in the race. It's unlikely that any of the three will be good enough to compete for a wild-card berth, so the division title is the sole path to the playoffs.

The Bears have had the Packers' number, winning three of the past four in Green Bay, including both games in which Mike McCarthy was coach. The Bears have confounded the Packers' offense and special teams in recent games.

The Packers are coming off two very difficult losses that easily could have been victories. How they respond to the latest loss, a heartbreaking 28-27 defeat to the Vikings, will be anybody's guess. They are not invincible at home, having lost to the Dallas Cowboys and Atlanta Falcons, and their struggles with the Bears will make this a difficult game to win.

The Bears may get quarterback Kyle Orton (ankle) back; that would be a huge lift. The Packers have relied heavily on their secondary to provide turnovers and points, but Orton is careful with the ball and won't take huge chances against cornerback Charles Woodson and safety Nick Collins, who together have five touchdowns.

The Bears' secondary was picked apart in recent weeks; the past four opposing quarterbacks have put up season-high numbers. Fixing the problem won't be easy. The line has been generating little pressure and the team has committed so much to stopping the run with eight-man fronts that the secondary has been exposed through the air. There have been grumblings in the locker room about the Tampa 2 scheme but coach Lovie Smith insists everyone is on board. Together or not, the Bears must get more pressure up front and the secondary must play better in press coverage on the outside.

This will be a typically hard-hitting game between two division rivals, but it won't be a defensive battle. There should be a lot of points because both defenses are playing poorly. The Bears can't stop the pass and the Packers can't stop the run. Look for both sides to exploit those weaknesses. This should be a bounce-back game for Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers who gets to play at home and on grass where opposing pass rushers shouldn't be as dominant. Take Packers.

San Diego at Pittsburgh (-3.5)

Last week: San Diego beat Kansas City 20-19; Pittsburgh lost to Indianapolis 24-20.

This is the fourth consecutive opponent against a 2007 playoff team for the Steelers, who are 1-2 in the previous three, and both losses (Giants, Colts) have come at home. The Steelers have blown fourth-quarter leads in each of those losses.

This is an important game for both teams, maybe even more so for the Chargers because they're 4-4 and cannot afford too many more losses if they want to return to the playoffs. They avoided a debilitating loss to the Chiefs in the final seconds, a game that displayed the problems they've been having this season. Like the Steelers, the Chargers are just a couple plays away from a different record, as five losses have come by a total of 25 points.

The game is also a matchup of quarterbacks from the same draft class – Ben Roethlisberger and Philip Rivers, each of whom has struggled this season. Roethlisberger has thrown just one touchdown and eight interceptions in the past three games, raising questions about the health of his throwing arm because of a nagging shoulder sprain. The Chargers, meanwhile, have had little success in Pittsburgh, at least during the regular season. They are 0-12 there in the regular season, but 2-0 in playoff games.

As bad and banged up as the back end of the Chargers defense is, this game will be decided up front. They need to get pressure and contain Roethlisberger, though he will likely employ the quick-pass strategy he did against the Colts last week. But as the defense evolves under Ron Rivera, it needs to involve more players committed to getting the quarterback. Close is not good enough.

if the Chargers can make the Steelers one-dimensional they have a chance. Yes, the Chargers' pass defense ranks last in the league, and they're hurting at cornerback. But Roethlisberger is hurting, and the Steelers will be hard-pressed to win one-dimensionally.

The Chargers have struggled in too many areas this season, particularly on defense, and have looked nothing like the team that lost only seven games the past two seasons combined. The Steelers' biggest problems this season have been on offense, and a lot can be traced to injuries to Roethlisberger, running back Willie Parker and left tackle Marvel Smith as well as season-ending injuries to RB Rashard Mendenhall and right guard Kendall Simmons. Their defense has been very good, but they've lacked the splash plays when they've needed them in the fourth quarter. Take Chargers.

Tennessee at Jacksonville (2.5)

Last week: Tennessee beat Chicago 21-14; Jacksonville beat Detroit 38-14.

The league's last unbeaten team, Tennessee hits the road to play struggling Jacksonville, which lost games to lowly Cleveland and Cincinnati before recovering last week in Detroit. Despite the disparity in records, meetings between the Titans and Jaguars always shape up to be hotly-contested affairs. This won't be any different.

After winning its first game in three, Jacksonville clings to fading hopes of a second-consecutive trip to the postseason. The Titans, meanwhile, are on a franchise-record 12-game tear in the regular season with the opportunity to eliminate the Jags from the division race.

Compounding Jacksonville's slim prospects for an upset seems to be turmoil within the team. Middle linebacker Mike Peterson appears to have lost his starting position and leading receiver Matt Jones awaits the league's decision concerning his appeal of a three-game drug suspension. Jags coach Jack Del Rio recently tightened team rules -- which many have said had become too lax -- in an effort to sharpen his team's focus and preparation for the second half of the season.

The Titans, the league's sixth-best rushing team, are coming off a 20-yard performance against the Bears, yet face a Jags team that has struggled this season against the run.

The Jaguars are 16-4 under Del Rio when they rush for 150 yards or more. So the club needs to establish the run at all costs against Tennessee's swarming defense. For the first time all season, the Jaguars appear to be gaining a little continuity along the offensive line, which should help the club's efforts to run the ball.

The Titans QB has proved to be effective at diagnosing the blitz and getting the ball in the hands of the correct receiver. Jacksonville needs to recognize this and act accordingly. Collins stung the Jags in the first meeting every time they brought an all-out blitz. Jacksonville would be wise to mix up the coverages against the Titans and rely mostly on Cover 2.

As crazy as it sounds, the Jaguars appear to have a legitimate shot at unseating the Titans, mainly because of their improvement along the offensive line. In the first meeting, Tennessee sacked David Garrard seven times. That likely won't happen in this meeting. Then again, an upset likely won't happen either. The Jaguars just don't possess enough offensive firepower to put Tennessee's defense on its heels. With Matt Jones as the leading receiver, it's highly unlikely he'll command a Titans double team that would take run defenders out of the tackle box. So the Titans should snuff out Jacksonville's rushing attack with no problems. And when the Jags can't run, they've proven they can't win. Take Titans.

Dallas at Washington (1.5)

Last week: Dallas lost to NY Giants 35-14 two weeks ago; Washington lost to Pittsburgh 23-6 two weeks ago.

Dallas is desperate, and the Redskins have not played well of late. The Redskins were physically handled by Pittsburgh and looked sloppy in wins over Cleveland and Detroit -- after losing to St. Louis. However, they match up well against Dallas because they can run the ball on the Cowboys and because they have the secondary to match their receivers. As long as Campbell avoids mistakes, the Redskins will be able to move the ball on this defense.

However, having Tony Romo back at quarterback means everything for Dallas. Neither Brad Johnson or Brookes Bollinger got the job done, but with Romo back against a Redskins secondary that will give up passing yards, one play can make a difference. Take Cowboys.

Detroit at Carolina (-13.5)

Last week: Detroit lost to Jacksonville 38-14; Carolina beat Oakland 17-6.

Looking for a way the Lions could pull off the upset for their first win is tough. There's not a lot to point to in their favor this week, other than the possible element of surprise that comes with facing a still-new passer. Otherwise, expect the Panthers to be fired up. Their defense played at a high level last week, but the offense has a lot to answer for.

As the Panthers enter the most difficult portion of their schedule, with four of their final six games on the road, this is one they can't let slip through their fingers. Indeed, the spread is lofty but carefully… Take Panthers.

Houston at Indianapolis (-8.5)

Last week: Houston lost to Baltimore 41-13; Indianapolis beat Pittsburgh 24-20.

Serious playoff contenders win matchups against noncontenders. Indy is gaining momentum after handling a pair of division leaders -- New England and Baltimore -- and that has to continue to build against the Texans. Houston has been forced to turn to backup QB Sage Rosenfels, who's been prone to turning the ball over. He had three turnovers in the first meeting with Indy and had four interceptions in Houston's loss to Baltimore on Sunday. As of late, the Colts have made a habit of winning late in the fourth quarter and the high spread seems precarious, nevertheless… Take Colts

Philadelphia at Cincinnati (8.5)

Last week: Philadelphia lost to NY Giants 36-31; Cincinnati beat Jacksonville 21-19 two weeks ago.

For several weeks now, the Bengals have claimed that all they've needed was one breakthrough victory, and more would come with machine-gun rapidity. Here's their chance to prove it. It took eight games, but the Bengals are finally beginning to mesh on both sides of the ball. The skill position players are in better tune with QB Ryan Fitzpatrick; the defense is playing a more fundamentally-sound brand of ball; and the kicking and coverage units are more consistent. Be aware: The Bengals are 3-0 all-time at home against Philadelphia and they lead the overall series, 7-3. Against Philly, the Bengals have their highest winning percentage (.700) against any foe. In a close one. Take points and Bengals.

New Orleans at Kansas City (4.5)

Last week: New Orleans lost to Atlanta 34-20; Kansas City lost to San Diego 20-19.

The most exciting thing about Chiefs football is that they just may have found a quarterback to build on in Tyler Thigpen. Statistically, he's not very impressive, but he is improving with every start. The last seven games for him have meant a lot for his development. The Saints biggest problem has been inconsistency. Win one, lose two, win one, lose one, win another, and lose another. Let’s stick to the pattern and take Saints to win by a touchdown. Take Saints.

Baltimore at NY Giants (-6.5)

Last week: Baltimore beat Houston 41-13; NY Giants beat Philadelphia 36-31.

The Giants are a perfect 5-0 at home after struggling at Giants Stadium (6-10) the past two seasons. Keeping that unblemished record intact against a powerful opponent won't be easy but the Ravens in some ways are tailor-made for the Giants. The Ravens want to run the ball and allow Flacco to manage the game, avoid mistakes and take deep shots downfield only when they are there. Running the ball on the Giants is no picnic, as evidenced by the way they stuffed Brian Westbrook (13-26) last weekend at Lincoln Financial Field. Flacco has been impressive leading an attack that has scored at least 27 points in every game of the current four-game winning streak but the Ravens do not want to put too much of a burden on the first-year players, something the Giants want to see happen. Manning should be able to find openings in the Baltimore secondary, but will he find enough to cover the spread? Giants will win but the Ravens keep it close. Take points and Ravens,

Oakland at Miami (-10.5)

Last week: Oakland lost to Carolina 17-6; Miami beat Seattle 21-19.

If the Raiders can't get Russell, McFadden or Burgess back on the field after injuries have kept them off, Oakland isn't going to fare well in this game. The Dolphins are too efficient when it comes to penalties and turnovers to allow the Raiders enough opportunities to scrape together points. Now, if McFadden's turf toe heals enough for him to get back to work on a solid rookie season, it could change the dynamic of this game. In that scenario, this game will be won and lost up front. And with linebacker Joey Porter leading the Dolphins' defense, the Dolphins will still be in a good situation to win this game, but by how much? Carefully take Dolphins.

Minnesota at Tampa Bay (-3.5)

Last week: Minnesota beat Green bay 28-27; Tampa Bay beat Kansas City 30-27 two weeks ago.

The Bucs haven't lost a game at home all season and it's unlikely they'll lose this one. Peterson might have a big day but a Tampa Bay defense fresh off a bye week should make enough plays to limit the Vikings' offensive explosiveness and keep the score close. If the defense does its part and the offense solves its red-zone problems the Bucs should eke out a victory that will keep them alive in the NFC playoff race. Take Buccaneers.

St-Louis at San Francisco (-5.5)

Last week: St-Louis lost to NY Jets 47-3; San Francisco lost to Arizona 29-24.

The Niners appear to be on the way up, while the Rams have sort of regressed losing the last three. Mike Singletary is making a difference. Sure, they lost to Arizona on Monday, but have played with more energy and desire than I've seen in recent history. The Niners will need a running game without Frank Gore. Marc Bulger was replaced by Trent Green. The 49ers are healthier than the Rams and are playing at home. Whether they can bounce back on a short week from an emotionally draining loss in Arizona will largely determine the outcome. Take 49ers.

Arizona at Seattle (2.5)

Last week: Arizona beat San Francisco 29-24; Seattle lost to Miami 21-19.

This is a 6-3 team against a 2-7 team, but the Cardinals are only favored by 2 ½. Perhaps it is because Matt Hasselbeck will be back at QB for Seattle. Yes, it will make a difference because he can be an exceptional quarterback when healthy. The question is how long it will take him to get back up to game speed. He has missed a lot of work, over a month, and just with like Payton Manning earlier this year, an absence of reps can affect you even when you get back to game speed. Arizona can score points. They have averaged 29 per game over the first nine, with a high of 41 against the Bills. Arizona is coming off a tough Monday night game and had to travel to Seattle this week, but in terms of talent, the Cardinals are much better. Take Cardinals.

Cleveland at Buffalo (-4.5)

Last week: Cleveland lost to Denver 34-30; Buffalo lost to New England 20-10.

A Monday night home game might be just what the Bills need. Buffalo has been a much different -- make that better -- team at home than on the road. The Bills likely must go 5-2 the rest of the way to ensure a playoff spot, but that record is not guaranteed the way they have been playing. They have done their best work against mediocre teams, which is what the Browns are right now. Brady Quinn will be making his second career start, but his first on the road. He's surrounded by a lot of talent on offense, which should help. Moreover, the Browns have played better on the road (2-2) than at home (1-4). In a tight one. Take Browns.

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By: Aengus Moorehead @ 18:35 | Category: Football | Comments: 0 | Permalink

Week 11

November 12 2008 @ 19:05

NY Jets at New England (-3.5)

Last week: NY Jets beat St-Louis 47-3; New England beat Buffalo 20-10.

Denver at Atlanta (-5.5)

Last week: Denver beat Cleveland 34-30; Atlanta beat New Orleans 34-20.

Chicago at Green Bay (-3.5)

Last week: Chicago lost to Tennessee 21-14; Green Bay lost to Minnesota 28-27.

San Diego at Pittsburgh (-4.5)

Last week: San Diego beat Kansas City 20-19; Pittsburgh lost to Indianapolis 24-20.

Tennessee at Jacksonville (2.5)

Last week: Tennessee beat Chicago 21-14; Jacksonville beat Detroit 38-14.

Dallas at Washington (1.5)

Last week: Dallas lost to NY Giants 35-14 two weeks ago; Washington lost to Pittsburgh 23-6 two weeks ago.

Detroit at Carolina (-13.5)

Last week: Detroit lost to Jacksonville 38-14; Carolina beat Oakland 17-6.

Houston at Indianapolis (-8.5)

Last week: Houston lost to Baltimore 41-13; Indianapolis beat Pittsburgh 24-20.

Philadelphia at Cincinnati (8.5)

Last week: Philadelphia lost to NY Giants 36-31; Cincinnati beat Jacksonville 21-19 two weeks ago.

New Orleans at Kansas City (4.5)

Last week: New Orleans lost to Atlanta 34-20; Kansas City lost to San Diego 20-19.

Baltimore at NY Giants (-6.5)

Last week: Baltimore beat Houston 41-13; NY Giants beat Philadelphia 36-31.

Oakland at Miami (-10.5)

Last week: Oakland lost to Carolina 17-6; Miami beat Seattle 21-19.

Minnesota at Tampa Bay (-3.5)

Last week: Minnesota beat Green bay 28-27; Tampa Bay beat Kansas City 30-27 two weeks ago.

St-Louis at San Francisco (-5.5)

Last week: St-Louis lost to NY Jets 47-3; San Francisco lost to Arizona 29-24.

Arizona at Seattle (2.5)

Last week: Arizona beat San Francisco 29-24; Seattle lost to Miami 21-19.

Cleveland at Buffalo (-4.5)

Last week: Cleveland lost to Denver 34-30; Buffalo lost to New England 20-10.

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By: Aengus Moorehead @ 19:05 | Category: Football | Comments: 0 | Permalink

Week 10

November 8 2008 @ 15:42

Nine favoured teams won last week, but four of them failed to cover the point spread. The Bears, favoured by 12 ½, beat the Lions 27-23; the Buccaneers, favoured by 7 ½ , beat the Chiefs 30-27 in overtime; the Titans, favoured by 5 ½ , beat the Packers 19-16; and the Colts, favoured by 5 ½ , beat the Patriots 18-15. Double-digit favourites fell to 2-10 for the season.

MY RECORD AGAINST THE SPREAD

Last week: 6-8
Season: 60-70

Tennessee at Chicago (2.5)

Last week: Tennessee beat Green Bay 19-16; Chicago beat Detroit 27-23.

Tennessee discovered it did not need its best effort to defeat an NFC foe at home Sunday, but the league's only remaining unbeaten at 8-0 will not be able to continue its streak with substandard performances, not entering a stretch Sunday at Soldier Field where three of the next four games are away from LP Field. Tennessee has taken advantage of a soft schedule -- only one of the Titans' first eight opponents is above .500 and they have a composite record of 25-41 (.379). Chicago does not qualify as a powerhouse, not with the status of QB Kyle Orton (right ankle) uncertain, but with the Bears playing solid run defense it will be a test for the Titans, who are two games up in the AFC for the top playoff seed.

If former starter Rex Grossman is pressed into action to make his first start of the season, will he be able to recapture some of the magic he had two seasons ago? Grossman's strong first half in 2006 put the Bears on course for a trip to Super Bowl 41, but his star has faded ever since to the point that now he's likely looking forward to the season ending and finding a fresh start elsewhere. Grossman is a short (6-1) quarterback who lacks great pocket mobility and therefore can struggle. That will be a real issue against the big Titans front, but if Orton is going to be sidelined for any period of time, the Bears need Grossman to deliver a steady effort because the defense isn't the same as it was. The Bears cannot count on an even effort from that side of the ball week in and week out.

As a team, the Bears just don't seem impressive. Last week, they had to come from behind to beat a winless Lions team. You go back two games from that, and see that Minnesota put up 41 points on the Bears. Before that, Chicago lost to the Falcons. Even though the bears are 5-3, it is not a strong 5-3. The bottom line here is that it is more likely that the Titans will do a better job protecting the football than Chicago will. Kerry Collins only has three interceptions this season. Take Titans.

Buffalo at New England (-3.5)

Last week: Buffalo lost to NY Jets 26-17; New England lost to Indianapolis 18-15.

The Bills have not had a good time with the Patriots since crushing them in the 2003 season opener. The Pats have won nine straight against them since, culminating in last year's 56-10 demolition that saw Randy Moss catch four touchdowns passes in the first half. The Pats are wounded without Brady, but playing much better recently. This one still represents the Bills' best chance to overtake their tormentors and they need to stop the bleeding after consecutive losses to the Dolphins and Jets.

Patriots quarterback Matt Cassel s improving at an almost exponential rate, with his three best games of the year coming in the last three weeks. If he keeps it up against the Bills, it could be a long day for Buffalo, not to mention a shot across the bow of the rest of the division.

These are two teams headed in completely opposite directions. The Bills thought they were going to be fighting for a bye and Super Bowl berth after starting 4-0. The Patriots were just trying to keep their heads above water after losing Brady. Now the Bills have lost two straight division games, while the Pats have won two of three and played well enough to beat the Colts. The Bills are a bit of a mess, with injuries taking their toll on the defense and the offensive line. They can't run the ball, they can't finish sustained drives, and they're ripe for the picking for a team like the Patriots, which generally starts playing its best ball in November. Take Patriots.

Indianapolis at Pittsburgh (-2.5)

Last week: Indianapolis beat New England 18-15; Pittsburgh beat Washington 23-6.

These two have not met since the Steelers ambushed Manning and the Colts in the RCA Dome in the 2005 AFC playoffs, using that game as the springboard to their Super Bowl victory. Just like last time, Manning will face a defense that is ranked No. 1 overall, No. 1 against the pass in the NFL and has allowed just 116 points in eight games (14.5 avg).

The Colts are coming off an 18-15 victory against another nemesis, New England that ended a two-game losing streak. And the Steelers, coming off a dominating 23-6 victory in Washington, are unbeaten against the AFC this season (5-0). Indianapolis has lost the past 12 games in Pittsburgh and 10 of the past 11 meetings overall, including playoffs.

Both teams have struggled offensively, showing flashes of production but too often looking inconsistent and erratic. Big plays, for the most part, have been lacking. One thing that hasn't been lacking, though, is the dominance of the Steelers' defense, whether against the run or the pass. The longest play against them is 35 yards and they have consistently shut down all the top running backs in the league, including Clinton Portis. In addition, they lead the league with 35 sacks and have done a wonderful job disguising their pressure. The defense is the reason the Steelers are 6-2 and headed for 7-2. Take Steelers.

NY Giants at Philadelphia (-2.5)

Last week: NY Giants beat Dallas 35-14; Philadelphia beat Seattle 26-7.

This game is what a diehard NFC East fan salivates over. The defending Super Bowl champion Giants are 7-1 and inarguably the favorite to earn the No. 1 seed in the NFC playoffs. After a slow start, the 5-3 Eagles have won three straight to climb out of the division cellar. An Eagles win would pull them within one game of New York and threaten the Giants' division supremacy.

This should be a prototype, smashmouth, grind-it-out game featuring two teams that know each other well. The Giants' defense -- ranked third overall -- is coached by Steve Spagnuolo, once a pupil of Eagles defensive coordinator Jim Johnson. Both are infatuated by the blitz and both rotate linemen at different positions to create mismatches and pressure the quarterback.

It should be a true chess match between two head coaches with over 100 career wins each. The Giants are playing disciplined, hard-nosed football under Tom Coughlin, and they bring a power rushing attack that's been almost impossible to stop. Andy Reid's offense is starting to click. They've scored 93 points in the past three games, with QB Donovan McNabb heating up.

Both QBs, Eli Manning and Donovan McNabb, complete a high percentage of their passes and have excellent TD:INT ratios. Where this game may be decided is in the depth of the perimeter players. Where the Giants have three very good RBs in Jacobs, Ward and Bradshaw, the Eagles have a great one in Westbrook. If the Giants tackle well, it could negate the Eagles best player. Where the Giants have three proven players big play receivers in Burris, Toomer and Smith, Philadelphia has one - rookie DeSean Jackson. And where both teams love to bring pass rush pressure with all three levels of the defense coming at any moment, New York has the better set of one-on-one pass rushers if the choose to rush four and drop eight.

If the game matches the statistics, this should be a defensive battle between two fundamentally sound division rivals. The Eagles will be galvanized by a home-field crowd still revved up by the Phillies' World Series title, but the Giants have escaped Lincoln Financial Field with victories the past two seasons. This should be a field goal game, which is an advantage for Philly at home with a mobile QB in McNabb. But the Giants have won five of seven against Philly. Stick with history. Take NY Giants.

New Orleans at Atlanta (-1.5)

Last week: New Orleans beat San Diego 37-32 two weeks ago; Atlanta beat Oakland 24-0.

The Falcons advantage in this game is that they completely dominated Oakland, holding the Raiders to 10 passing yards. They are confident. For New Orleans, at 4-4, they have the advantage of coming off the bye following a win against San Diego in London. They also have Drew Brees, who might be the best quarterback in all of football. In completing 69.1 percent of his passes, he is having an MVP season - and he loves playing indoors. I like Atlanta's running game, though. Michael Turner is averaging 4.5 yards per carry, which means fewer third and long situations for rookie QB Matt Ryan. If Atlanta can win the time of possession battle, it will be a big advantage. Take Falcons.

Jacksonville at Detroit (6.5)

Last week: Jacksonville lost to Cincinnati 21-19; Detroit lost to Chicago 27-23.

The Lions have improved this season in stopping the run, but they still seem to give up too many big plays at the worst times. Offensively, Culpepper might give them a spark, but he'll be saddled with the same issues as the other quarterbacks -- no consistent running game to keep the pressure off. The Jaguars have struggled to make plays down the stretch, too, but they've got more playmakers than the Lions, and they'll pull this one out late, but barely. Take points and Lions.

Seattle at Miami (-8.5)

Last week: Seattle lost to Philadelphia 26-7; Miami beat Denver 26-17.

The Dolphins are blossoming with hope. They're talking about the playoffs and sack records, discipline and efficiency. Meanwhile, the Seahawks are in disarray. They're talking about injuries, bizarre blunders and next year's draft. Unless something strange happens, each team's momentum should provide a picture of what to expect. The only thing that can hurt the Dolphins is the Dolphins themselves. They struggle against lesser opponents. This will provide a perfect opportunity to change that. Carefully take Dolphins.

Green Bay at Minnesota (-2.5)

Last week: Green Bay lost to Tennessee 19-16; Minnesota beat Houston 28-21.

I think the Packers are the better team, but the Vikings may have improved enough in recent weeks to make this a game very interesting. Having won three of four, Minnesota is now tied with Green bay at 4-4, and both teams are one game behind the Bears in the division, and Chicago gets a tough Tennessee team this week. The difference in this game will be the packers run defense and QB Aaron Rodgers. He is coming off a tough game. He did throw for 314 yards against Tennessee last week, but he was only 22-of-41 and turned the football over twice. There is no guarantee that Minnesota will run the ball enough to keep Rodgers off the field. To me, this sets up that classic football struggle with Minnesota looking to win the time of possession battle, while Green Bay looks for big plays and quick scores. Take Packers.

St-Louis at NY Jets (-7.5)

Last week: St-Louis lost to Arizona 34-13; NY Jets beat Buffalo 26-17.

Until a lackluster effort against Arizona, the Rams had played inspired football under Haslett, with upsets of Washington and Dallas and a competitive loss at New England. They certainly are capable of making this a game, but the Jets have a lot more to play for now that they're tied for first in the AFC East. As long as Favre can avoid another interception for a score, the Jets should win easily. Carefully take NY Jets.

Baltimore at Houston (-1.5)

Last week: Baltimore beat Cleveland 37-27; Houston lost to Minnesota 28-21.

This is an interesting game because both teams are on the rise in different ways. For Houston, they have two good QBs in Sage Rosenfels and Matt Schaub, who is injured this week. But they have to start winning the close games. A four point loss to Indy, a three point loss in Jacksonville. The Texans could easily be 5-3 on the year. How about Joe Flacco for Baltimore? He's having a great rookie year, supported by a good team around him. The Ravens have a good opportunity to make Houston one-dimensional. If there are too many third and long situations for Rosenfels, he could implode. Also, Houston's three wins came over Cincinnati, Detroit and Miami. Two of those are the worst teams in the league. Take Ravens.

Carolina at Oakland (8.5)

Last week: Carolina beat Houston 27-23 two weeks ago; Oakland lost to Atlanta 24-0.

I like Carolina coming off a bye week. The Raiders, in fact, could face their second straight shut out of the year at home. That would be absolutely crushing for the organization. The Raiders offensive ineptitude was shocking last week against the Falcons. If Atlanta's defense is that good, Carolina's could be better. If John Abraham can dominate Oakland from the DE spot, then so can Julius Peppers. It's interesting to note that the Panthers will travel to Oakland on Friday instead of Saturday. When they tried that earlier this year, it translated into wins over Arizona and San Diego. Take Panthers.

Kansas City at San Diego (-14.5)

Last week: Kansas City lost to Tampa Bay 30-27; San Diego lost to New Orleans 37-32 two weeks ago.

The Chargers are 3-5 and, though the Chiefs are 1-7, it is still a divisional game. Also, the Chiefs have been competitive in their last two outings, with a 30-27 OT loss against Tampa Bay and a 28-24 loss to the Jets in New York. Also, Chiefs QB Tyler Thigpen has played well, completing 64 percent of his passes. San Diego should win. They are coming off a bye and they have superior talent. Will they make the playoffs? They have a great opportunity - they are only one game behind Denver for the division lead, that's it. One game. They do have four tough games left, at Pittsburgh, Indy, Atlanta and at TB, but they play Denver at home on December 28, the last regular season game of the year. It could be for first place. It starts with this game, which the Chargers should win, but it's just too many points. Take points and Chiefs.

San Francisco at Arizona (-9.5)

Last week: San Francisco lost to Seattle 34-13 two weeks ago; Arizona beat St-Louis 34-13.

The Cardinals are playing with a maturity and confidence, two attributes the franchise has long been missing. They are better than the 49ers and they are playing at home, where they are 9-2 under Whisenhunt. Over the past 16 games, the Cardinals are 10-6, so what they have done in the first half of this season is no fluke. The Cardinals beat SF in Week 1 by a 23-13 count. Arizona has improved greatly since then, while the Niners have not. San Francisco will play hard for Singletary, but the Cardinals are just more talented. Take Cardinals.

Bye: Cincinnati, Dallas, Tampa Bay and Washington.

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By: Aengus Moorehead @ 15:42 | Category: Football | Comments: 0 | Permalink

week 10

November 5 2008 @ 19:08

Denver at Cleveland (-2.5)

Last week: Denver lost to Miami 26-17; Cleveland lost to Baltimore 37-27.

Nothing was what it seemed when the Broncos and Browns opened '08 at 3-0 and 0-3, respectively. The Broncos then kicked off a 1-4 nosedive with a numbing loss to the Chiefs. The Browns, on the other hand, have won three of their past five. They could have won all five, but a field-goal try at Washington was no good, and a 14-point, second-half lead got away against Baltimore.

Yet, those 3-0 and 0-3 starts have consequences. Aside from how they are playing, the Broncos are in good shape in the AFC West. With the Steelers seeming in good shape for at least a 10-6 season, the Browns would have to go 7-1 the rest of the way to match that.

Thrown into the melee for the Browns is QB Brady Quinn who has tossed all of eight passes in his season-plus in the NFL. Quinn has not experienced game speed-football and will have to adjust just as much as his teammates will adjust to him. But they are playing Denver, a division-leading 4-4 team that doesn't have confidence. They lost to Miami coming off a bye week and lost to the Pats going into it. The Jaguars ran all over them prior to that loss and their last win was a month ago.

In Sunday's 26-17 home loss to Miami, QB Jay Cutler threw for 307 yards and two touchdowns, but also had three interceptions - one of which was returned for a TD. He's had five passes picked off in his last two games, doubling his season total.

The Broncos also have injury problems, as running backs Michael Pittman and Andre Hall were placed on injured reserve after Sunday’s game. Fellow back Selvin Young has mot played since October 5^th due to a groin problem, which could leave rookies Ryan Torain and Peyton Hillis to carry the load. The Broncos ran for 14 yards on 12 carries against the Dolphins.

Their defense, in the bottom five in the league in points and yards allowed, is also banged up. Cornerback Champ Bailey is out with a groin injury and linebacker and leading tackler D.J. Williams went down with a knee injury versus Miami. Take Browns.

Tennessee at Chicago (2.5)

Last week: Tennessee beat Green Bay 19-16; Chicago beat Detroit 27-23.

Buffalo at New England (-3.5)

Last week: Buffalo lost to NY Jets 26-17; New England lost to Indianapolis 18-15.

Indianapolis at Pittsburgh (-2.5)

Last week: Indianapolis beat New England 18-15; Pittsburgh beat Washington 23-6.

NY Giants at Philadelphia (-2.5)

Last week: NY Giants beat Dallas 35-14; Philadelphia beat Seattle 26-7.

New Orleans at Atlanta (-1.5)

Last week: New Orleans beat San Diego 37-32 two weeks ago; Atlanta beat Oakland 24-0.

Jacksonville at Detroit (6.5)

Last week: Jacksonville lost to Cincinnati 21-19; Detroit lost to Chicago 27-23.

Seattle at Miami (-8.5)

Last week: Seattle lost to Philadelphia 26-7; Miami beat Denver 26-17.

Green Bay at Minnesota (-2.5)

Last week: Green Bay lost to Tennessee 19-16; Minnesota beat Houston 28-21.

St-Louis at NY Jets (-7.5)

Last week: St-Louis lost to Arizona 34-13; NY Jets beat Buffalo 26-17.

Baltimore at Houston (-1.5)

Last week: Baltimore beat Cleveland 37-27; Houston lost to Minnesota 28-21.

Carolina at Oakland (8.5)

Last week: Carolina beat Houston 27-23 two weeks ago; Oakland lost to Atlanta 24-0.

Kansas City at San Diego (-14.5)

Last week: Kansas City lost to Tampa Bay 30-27; San Diego lost to New Orleans 37-32 two weeks ago.

San Francisco at Arizona (-9.5)

Last week: San Francisco lost to Seattle 34-13 two weeks ago; Arizona beat St-Louis 34-13.

Bye: Cincinnati, Dallas, Tampa Bay and Washington.

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By: Aengus Moorehead @ 19:08 | Category: Football | Comments: 1 | Permalink

Week 9

November 1 2008 @ 15:01

Teams were 6-6-2 against the spread last week, while home teams were 7-5-2 and home underdogs went 2-1. The two double-digit favorites split their games.

The Jets, favored by 12 ½ over the listless Chiefs, squeaked out a 28-24 victory, while the Texans, favored by 9 ½ over the winless Bengals, coasted to a 35-6 win.

The Bears are the biggest favorite this week, giving up 12 ½ points at home to the Lions. Through the first eight weeks, the biggest favorites have posted a 2-7 record.

MY RECORD AGAINST THE SPREAD

Last week: 3-11.
Season: 54-62.

NY Jets at Buffalo (-5.5)

Last week: NY Jets beat Kansas City 28-24; Buffalo lost to Miami 25-16.

This is an important division game for both teams. Buffalo is tied with New England atop the AFC East at 5-2, and the teams will meet next week in Foxborough. The 4-3 Jets could leave Orchard Park with a share of the division lead if they win. The Bills came up short in their first AFC East test last week, losing at Miami, 25-16.

Buffalo has yet to knock off a team with a winning record, but the Jets aren't great. They struggled in wins over Cincinnati and Kansas City and lost in overtime at Oakland. No one has been more erratic than quarterback Brett Favre, who followed outstanding performances with mediocre ones. No matter how many mistakes he makes, Favre is feared when he has the ball in the final minutes.

The Jets' defense has been terrific most of the season. But their offense must show up on Sunday if they are going to beat the Bills. Favre lived up to his gunslinger reputation in the past three games, throwing three TD passes and seven interceptions. Still, he has guided the Jets to go-ahead or game-tying scores in the fourth quarter each of the past two weeks. If Favre can avoid mistakes, the Jets might not need late-game heroics from him.

The Bills have been a different team at home than on the road, winning three games at Ralph Wilson Stadium by an average score of 27-15. Playing in front of their fans, their offense operates with more crispness and their defense is far more aggressive. If Favre plays well and the defense makes some plays, the Jets can keep this game close. But with a trip to New England looming, the Bills can't afford to start 0-2 in the division. Take Bills.

Green Bay at Tennessee (-5.5)

Last week: Green Bay beat Indianapolis 34-14 two weeks ago; Tennessee beat Indianapolis 31-21.

After Monday's win over the Colts, the Titans are no longer an NFL secret. They are the league's last undefeated team, and their 7-0 record is becoming impossible to dismiss. The Titans have lived off the underdog status for years. Now, how can they handle being considered one of the NFL's elite teams? The Titans now have a four-game cushion in the AFC South over Indianapolis, Jacksonville and Houston and a two-game lead for home-field advantage in the AFC.

Are the Packers back? After three consecutive losses to start the season 2-3, they are on the upswing. They won convincingly against the Seahawks and Colts, and are getting healthy. Quarterback Aaron Rodgers gutted through three games with a sore shoulder but is healthy and ready to go. It should make Green Bay's offense the Titans' toughest tasks so far.

The game will feature the AFC's best team, and one of the NFC's best. And it's not often these teams meet. The last time the Titans and Packers played in the regular season was in 2004, a game won by the Titans. The last time the Packers visited Nashville was in 2001. The Titans won both those games and have fared well against NFC competition in recent years.

The Titans are on a roll, full of confidence and playing well on offense and defense. Even on a short week, they'll be prepared to play on Sunday at LP Field, where they're winning by an average of 12.2 points per game. Look for the Titans to line up and run right at the Packers. In doing so, they'll be able to control the clock and possession time. On defense, the Titans secondary is making plays and will force Rodgers into mistakes. It all adds up to the Titans' eighth consecutive victory, but Rodgers and the Packers will keep it close. Take points and Packers.

Dallas at NY Giants (-7.5)

Last week: Dallas beat Tampa Bay 13-9; NY Giants beat Pittsburgh 21-14.

At the start of the season the Cowboys were widely considered to be the heavy favorite to repeat as NFC East champions, even though the Giants beat them at Texas Stadium in the playoffs and went on to win the Super Bowl. The Giants often like to remind everyone that they have very few Pro Bowl players, compared with the array of Pro Bowl participants for the Cowboys. Every game within this division is a fierce and long-time rivalry, but there's something about the Cowboys that always causes the Giants emotions to rise, starting in the front office and filtering down to the coaching staff and players.

After losing their first two games of the 2007 season, the Giants have been successful in limiting damage and staying away from any prolonged skids. They haven't lost back-to-back games in more than a year. The Giants, with their 4-0 start, built a surprising lead in the NFC East amid the struggles of the Cowboys and Eagles. A victory here would boost the Giants to 7-1 and drop the Cowboys to 5-4, opening up a huge cushion for New York. The Giants played only one division game in their first six, but this game with the Cowboys begins a stretch in which they play five of their next seven against NFC East opponents.

Although the Giants did knock the favored Cowboys out of last year's playoffs, the Giants remember how they were swept in the two-game regular-season series, allowing 76 points in the two games. Of course, the absence of Tony Romo greatly affects the Cowboys' firepower, but there are still plenty of weapons the Giants must deal with.

The Giants enter this game brimming with confidence following their 21-14 comeback victory in Pittsburgh and realize the Cowboys are not at full strength. Pressuring Brad Johnson is far easier than getting to Tony Romo and the Giants -- with 26 sacks -- lead the NFL in getting to the quarterback. Given the defensive ability of the Giants to shut down opposing running games, Johnson is going to be asked to do more than not hurt the Cowboys, and it remains to be seen if he can make enough plays. The Giants have not turned the ball over or allowed a sack of Eli Manning in their past two games, a winning formula if ever there was one. Take NY Giants.

New England at Indianapolis (-5.5)

Last week: New England beat St-Louis 23-16; Indianapolis lost to Tennessee 31-21.

The Colts are in danger of missing the playoffs for the first time since 2001, and whom better to extend their miseries than coach Bill Belichick and the New England Patriots.

The prime-time Sunday showdown lacks the hype of last season when each team was unbeaten, but it has "must-win" written all over it for Indianapolis. At 3-4, they're already off to their worst start since 1998. Falling into a 3-5 hole with what would be a third home loss in four games, would make reaching the postseason for a seventh consecutive season extremely difficult.

The QB Peyton Manning-led offense continues to move in fits and starts, but could regain the bounce in its step against New England's injury-depleted defense. The Colts may be 3-4, but they're still capable of the home run on every play. They've also gone up against their share of great defenses and are battle-tested. If the Pats think they're going to see the struggling Indy passing game, there's a good chance they'll get burned.

Desperation time has arrived in Indy and coincides with the latest visit from the hated Patriots. Normally, the Colts would be considered heavy favorites since New England is without QB Tom Brady, RB Laurence Maroney and S Rodney Harrison. But these are not normal times. The Colts approach the season's midpoint with many more questions than answers. Still, they at least temporarily stop the bleeding. Take Colts.

Pittsburgh at Washington (-1.5)

Last week: Pittsburgh lost to NY Giants 21-14; Washington beat Detroit 25-17.

No running back is hotter than Washington's Clinton Portis. He reached the season's midpoint on pace for more than 1,800 yards. He's running as hard as ever and is exploding into the secondary. He has to be mentioned among discussions for offensive player of the year.

But Pittsburgh's defense has to be mentioned among the league's elite. Few defenses have been tougher to run against than the Steelers.

Portis has rushed for more than 120 yards in five-straight games; the Steelers have allowed just three runners in the past 73 games to crack 100 yards. Portis averages 5.0 yards per carry; opposing backs are rushing for 2.9 yards a carry vs. Pittsburgh.

However, the Steelers, playing their first game in Washington since 1988, haven't had success against the NFC East so far. They've already lost to Philadelphia and the Giants. In those games, they've turned the ball over a combined seven times and have yielded 14 sacks.

The Redskins are tired, banged up and about to enter their bye week. They must be careful about not looking ahead to the time off. Regardless, it's a rough time to play a physical team such as the Steelers. Pittsburgh will be able to stop the run and force Campbell into a position of having to win the game for Washington. The line has protected him well, but it will be more difficult if Redskins become one-dimensional, especially against this defense. Washington's defense will be helped by the return of defensive tackle Cornelius Griffin and should be able to pressure Pittsburgh inside. But it won’t be enough. Take Steelers.

Jacksonville at Cincinnati (7.5)

Last week: Jacksonville lost Cleveland 23-17; Cincinnati lost to Houston 35-6.

The Jacksonville Jaguars are a hungry, angry team after last week's heartbreaking 23-17 home loss to Cleveland. The Bengals, meanwhile, are a beaten, downtrodden squad searching for answers, and a spark, on offense, defense and special teams. Cincinnati hasn't won a home game since Dec. 23, 2007, and there's absolutely no reason to believe it can triumph over the Jaguars, who are superior on both sides of the ball. The Bengals have shown no signs of being able to consistently run the ball, and that plays into the hands of the Jaguars' pass rush. Jacksonville still has designs on a wildcard berth, and will get back to .500 with a resounding victory. Take Jaguars.

Baltimore at Cleveland (-1.5)

Last week: Baltimore beat Oakland 29-10; Cleveland beat Jacksonville 23-17.

This one is tough to pick. First, Cleveland going into Jacksonville and winning a close game last week makes you optimistic that maybe, just maybe, the talent will live up to expectations. They have won three of four and are now only one game behind the second-place Ravens. But this week, they play a top three defense. One factor to consider is that Cleveland dominated time of possession in beating Baltimore 28-10 back in Week 3. This time around, there is no way it will be as one-sided as that game was, and someone will win this by a field goal. It's a tough call, but I'll go with the Browns. Take Browns.

Detroit at Chicago (-12.5)

Last week: Detroit lost to Washington 25-17; Chicago beat Minnesota 48-41 two weeks ago.

The pressure is building in Detroit to win at least one game and avoid the inevitable conversations about 0-16. The last time these two teams played, it was a really easy win for the Bears, 34-7. It was over by the beginning of the fourth quarter. When you look at the 4-3 Bears, they are very much alive in the division, and you have to admire quarterback Kyle Orton. Remember when it was a battle between him and Rex Grossman for the starting job? Not any more. It's Orton's offence to run and he has put quite a bit of distance between himself and the back-up. His statistics are not among the best in the NFL, but Orton just gives off a vibe of confidence when he is in there. Detroit is looking at Daunte Culpepper to play quarterback; not a bad move, but it's Week 9. Too late. Take Bears.

Tampa Bay at Kansas City (7.5)

Last week: Tampa Bay lost to Dallas 13-9; Kansas City lost to NY Jets 28-24.

I really like the Bucs to win this one, but I hate giving up 7.5 points. That's a lot. Everyone scores on Kansas City, though. The 28 scored by the Jets last week has been the smallest total in the last four weeks. And very few teams score on the Bucs. Only once this season has TB given up more than 20 points – Green Bay scored 21 in Week 4. Also, even though the Bucs lost to Dallas 13-9 last week, they allowed a staggeringly low amount of yards (172). And that was against a Dallas team with a powerful offensive line, Terrell Owens and Roy Williams at receiver and extra-effort RB Marion Barber. Football logic says that K.C. should only score about 10 points. KC’s quarterback Tyler Thigpen is coming off his best game as a pro, but the Bucs are angry after a key road loss. Take Buccaneers.

Houston at Minnesota (-4.5)

Last week: Houston beat Cincinnati 35-6; Minnesota lost to Chicago 48-41 two weeks ago.

The Texans have quietly won three in a row. Now you have to take into consideration that two of the wins were against the winless Lions and the winless Bengals. Also, their last four games have been at home, so this will be the Texans' first road game since September. Houston is a team on the rise, no doubt, but this is a bit of a trap game with Minnesota coming off the bye week. And you would have to think that during the bye week, the Vikings addressed an area of concern – special teams. The Vikings have allowed three punt returns for touchdowns, and five returns in total. The Texans are the better team, but the Vikings have home field advantage. I'll take the Vikings to win but the Texans will make it a close one. Take points and Texans.

Arizona at St-Louis (2.5)

Last week: Arizona lost Carolina 27-23; St-Louis lost to New England 23-16.

Sometimes when you lose, you win, and I thought both Arizona and St. Louis played winning football last week but ran out of time. The Cardinals only lost by four to a good Carolina team on the road. Arizona seems to be closing the gap between losing by dominating scores on the road and losing by competitive scores. St. Louis has two impressive wins over Washington and Dallas, and lost by seven to the Patriots last week – but it was a game they could have won. Most of the time, an in-season coaching change does not produce big positive results, but it seems like Jim Haslett has made a difference in St. Louis. Both teams are on the rise, but… Take Rams.

Miami at Denver (-3.5)

Last week: Miami beat Buffalo 25-16; Denver lost to New England 41-7 two weeks ago.

As the weeks move on, I am becoming more and more of a Dolphin believer. Every game since Week 4 has been very competitive. Even two weeks ago in the 27-13 loss to Baltimore, the Terrell Suggs interception changed everything. That game could have been a Miami win if not for that one play. It probably will not happen, but Chad Pennington should get some consideration for comeback player of the year. He is completing almost 70 percent of his passes and has changed the perceptions that he was a quarterback on the downside of his career. Now it looks like Pennington could play for a long time. That said, the Dolphins’ running back tandem –Ricky Williams and Ronnie Brown- and Pennington should be licking their chops facing a defense that’s now missing both Champ Bailey and Boss Bailey. Even though the Broncos are decent at home, I give a slight edge to the Dolphins. Take Dolphins.

Atlanta at Oakland (2.5)

Last week: Atlanta lost to Philadelphia 24-17; Oakland lost to Baltimore 29-10.

The Falcons have been more consistent than the Raiders so far this season. However, they are 1-3 on the road, and the Raiders play better at home. Whichever quarterback handles the pressure better figures to lead his team to victory. Falcon’s QB Matt Ryan learned a valuable lesson against Philadelphia, as the Eagles blitzed time after time until they finally forced a turnover. Ryan will learn from that experience, and I'm not sure the Raiders have the personnel to duplicate what the Eagles did. Take Falcons.

Philadelphia at Seattle (6.5)

Last week: Philadelphia beat Atlanta 24-17; Seattle beat San Francisco 34-13.

The Seahawks' home-field advantage ain't wait it used to be. Sure, the 12th Man crowd still generates a din that prompts opposing offenses to commit false-start penalties. But the team isn't holding up its end, losing two of its first three home games and surrendering 33 and 27 points in doing it. Even with the Eagles making their second Coast-to-Coast trip in three weeks, the Seahawks offense will have a difficult time dealing with the Eagles' blitzes, and the banged-up defense will have trouble containing everything the Eagles can throw -- and run -- at it. Take Eaggles.

Bye: Carolina, New Orleans, San Diego and San Francisco.

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By: Aengus Moorehead @ 15:01 | Category: Football | Comments: 0 | Permalink

Las Vegas Sports BLOG/blog

Week 13

November 25 2008 @ 21:39

Week 12

November 19 2008 @ 20:42

Week 11

November 15 2008 @ 18:35

Week 11

November 12 2008 @ 19:05

Week 10

November 8 2008 @ 15:42

week 10

November 5 2008 @ 19:08

Week 9

November 1 2008 @ 15:01

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Sun	Mon	Tue	Wed	Thu	Fri	Sat
						1
2	3	4	5	6	7	8
9	10	11	12	13	14	15
16	17	18	19	20	21	22
23	24	25	26	27	28	29
30