Week 8

October 31 2009 @ 16:18

Greetings Lasses and Lads.

On week 7, eleven favourites out of thirteen won their caper and all covered as some of these games were not even close. In fact, the Patriots, Colts, Chargers, Packers, Jets and Bengals have outscored their opponents by an astounding average of 35 points.

Only the Steelers and Texans- both favourites- narrowly escaped with victories while the Giants and Panthers lost their games outright.  

My upset of the week: Giants (+2.5) at Eagles.

My no-brainer of the week: Panthers (+8.5) at Cardinals.

My record against the spread:

Last week: 8-5.

Season: 54-49.

Denver at Baltimore (-3.5)

Last week: Broncos beat Chargers two weeks ago 34-23; Ravens lost to Vikings two weeks ago 33-31.

The Ravens have lost three in a row and desperately need a win to change the momentum of their season. They have a tough stretch coming up with games against Denver, Pittsburgh, Cincinnati and Indianapolis. While Baltimore and Denver are both coming off byes this week, the Ravens' next two opponents -- Cincinnati and Cleveland -- also have bye weeks before playing the Ravens.

A lot of fans still question the validity of Denver's 6-0 record. The Broncos have impressive wins against Dallas, San Diego and New England, but they have yet to play a team with a smash mouth approach like Baltimore. Some observers are still waiting for the Broncos' balloon to burst. If it happens, it could come in Baltimore because the Ravens' physical style is made for a team like Denver.

The Ravens believe they have one of the best offenses in the league, and the game against the Broncos will go a long way in telling us if that's true. Denver's defense is first in the league in points allowed (11 per game), second in total yards allowed (262.5), eighth in passing yards allowed (182.8) and third in rushing yards allowed (79.7). The Ravens had offensive success against Minnesota, which has an athletic group on defense, but the Broncos are fast and aggressive. It will be the best test of the season so far for second-year quarterback Joe Flacco.

Denver leads the AFC in sacks per game, a surprising turnaround for a defense that had struggled to rush the quarterback for years. That will help against a rising Ravens offense led by Flacco. Baltimore has a very good line that has allowed only 10 sacks, but the Broncos need to disrupt Flacco and make sure his receivers don't have time to beat man coverage.

Denver QB Kyle Orton is smart and careful with the ball and has thrown only one interception this season (on an end-of-the-half Hail Mary pass). But Ravens safety Ed Reed is a master at baiting quarterbacks, then making a game-changing play. The Broncos can't expect to go on the road and win if they don't win the turnover battle again, and the main challenge will be to keep Reed occupied while Orton finds safer options.

Denver won't beat the Ravens by running the ball. The Ravens still have a solid run defense, allowing just 3.5 yards per carry, and the Broncos have a good but not elite rushing offense. Denver has to spread the field and take advantage of Baltimore's pass defense, which has sprung some leaks. The cornerbacks will have tough matchups against Denver's deep receiving unit. The overall key is the excellent protection Orton receives from the Broncos' line.

The Ravens have to slow down Broncos outside linebacker Elvis Dumervil, who already has 10 sacks and has been a huge factor in the team's 6-0 start. Ravens left tackle Jared Gaither has missed the last two games because of a neck injury, so look for the Ravens to give him help with tight end Todd Heap, fullback Le'Ron McClain or a running back.

 Denver likes to use a lot of short passes, so the Ravens have to keep everything in front of them. When wide receivers Eddie Royal, Brandon Marshall or Jabar Gaffney make catches, the Ravens must bring them down immediately because the Broncos sustain drives with their ability to make yards after the catch.

Flacco has to bring his A game, and he has to be consistently accurate. The Broncos defense moves around a lot and brings a lot of pressure. Denver also gets strong play from cornerbacks Champ Bailey and Andre Goodman, who do a good job of pressing receivers at the line. If Flacco doesn't play well, the Ravens will lose in a big way.

Despite Denver only giving up 79.7 yards per game rushing, the Ravens will have success against the Broncos running the ball. Baltimore is more physical, and the Broncos are not well-suited to play against that style. The Ravens need a win, and they're getting to a point where their backs are against the wall. Take Ravens.

Minnesota at Green Bay (-2.5)

Last week: Vikings lost to Steelers 27-17; Packers beat Browns 31-3.

This isn't a hard one to figure out. Vikings quarterback Brett Favre returns to the stadium that he helped build (the renovation, anyway) in what is much more than a revenge game. The Vikings lead the Packers by 1 1/2 games in the NFC North; if they win this one, their road to the title would be paved in gold. The Packers, on the other hand, can even things up in the loss column and create a fight to the finish with a victory.

Favre certainly will have mixed emotions coming back to the place where he made his name. There's no question he's going to get booed, but there also should be a group of supporters who will give him a loud ovation. Favre plays better when he keeps his emotions in check. He was able to do it at the Metrodome in the teams' first meeting Oct. 5, but this will be a little different. The majority of fans will be rooting against him.

The Packers didn't blitz much in the first meeting, and Favre torched them for three TDs and 271 passing yards. If the Packers decide to bring more pressure this time, it'll be up to the line to protect Favre. Running back Adrian Peterson's pass protection remains a work in progress.

The Vikings ranked second in the NFL with a plus-8 turnover ratio after their 6-0 start. The Steelers then scored 14 points, off Favre's fumble and an interception, in the fourth quarter last week. The interception shouldn't have happened; Favre's pass hit running back Chester Taylor in the hands. This week they face the team with the best turnover ratio in the NFL.

Favre said he was as nervous as he has ever been before kickoff when he played the Packers in early October. Favre might feel even more nervous as he makes his first trip back to Lambeau Field. Favre has proved he can play well while being emotional: He had a 135.3 passer rating against the Packers in the first game this season, and he threw for 399 yards and four TDs at Oakland the day after his father died in 2003.

The Packers didn't do that too well last time the teams met because the game turned into a track meet and the offense spent most of the night throwing. Playing at home, on grass, should help the running game, which came alive last week against a lousy Cleveland defense. Rookie T.J. Lang will probably start at left tackle; he's not the pass blocker veteran Chad Clifton is, but he's a very good run blocker.

The best way to negate the the Vikings’ pass rush is to dump the ball off to backs and tight ends. Quarterback Aaron Rodgers did a lousy job of that at the Metrodome, holding onto the ball too long while looking for the big play. The game plan last time was good, but Rodgers has to follow through this week and keep the Vikings on their toes with screens, slants, hitches and crosses. The Vikings' safeties are vulnerable and Rodgers has to trust his receivers to break tackles and make something out of short passes.

Unlike the first meeting, defense will be the name of this game Sunday. Both teams gave up big plays last time; you'd expect things to be cleaned up a lot just three weeks later. Playing on grass should keep the score down as well. Look for both teams to establish the run and make this a rough-and-tumble affair. The Packers get the nod only because they're home and the crowd noise will make it tough on Favre and the Vikings. Take Packers.

Miami at NY Jets (-3.5)

Last week: Dolphins lost to Saints 46-34; Jets beat Raiders 38-0.

Can the Jets handle life without Leon? The loss of all-purpose back Leon Washington to a gruesome leg fracture robs the Jets of their most dynamic player, and it will be interesting to see how they do without him. He will be especially missed if this becomes a high-scoring affair, because he always had the potential to change the game with one breakaway play. The Jets will try to replace him by committee.

Can Miami save its season again? The Dolphins were 1-3 and needed a victory very badly before the first meeting with the Jets. Now they're 2-4 and in desperate need of a win after blowing a 21-point lead against New Orleans. Coach Tony Sparano blamed himself for an ill-advised timeout that helped spark the Saints' comeback, an admission his players appreciated. Let's see if they have his back on the field.

The Jets-Dolphins rivalry was once a good one, but New England's rise to prominence and the Jets' dominance in this series had taken away some of the luster. But Miami has won two straight against the Jets, and there actually is some bad blood, as many Dolphins took umbrage at Jets LB Calvin Pace calling the Wildcat formation "nonsense" after the Jets lost in Week 5.

Miami receiver Ted Ginn’s struggles were perhaps the worst aspect of last week's disastrous second half against the Saints. Ginn dropped two critical passes -- one of which became an interception returned for a touchdown -- and his coaches seem to be losing patience. Expect the Dolphins to decrease Ginn's repetitions while increasing them for rookie Brian Hartline. If the Dolphins' receivers don't improve, it will be easier for the Jets to halt Miami's potent ground attack.

Nobody can complain about how Miami's running backs have performed this season. Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams have become possibly the greatest one-two punch in the NFL, and the Dolphins will need to ride that success if they're going to beat the Jets again. Three weeks ago, the Dolphins ran out of the Wildcat more than ever. Since the Jets might have a better way to stop the package this time around, the running backs must be prepared to be just as productive out of the base offense.

The Jets scaled back the game plan for their rookie QB at Oakland, although the fact that two of their first three possessions began at Oakland's 4-yard-line surely helped. But Sanchez had success against this defense three weeks ago, with 172 yards on just 12 completions, so he should feel somewhat comfortable. WR Braylon Edwards needs to be more involved.

After the Dolphins averaged more than 6 yards per play with the wildcat in their first meeting against the Jets, it may be a bit much to ask New York to shut it down. But if the Jets can do a better job of getting off blocks and staying with their individual assignments, Miami will face more unfavorable down-and-distance situations, forcing them to use their base offense.

Yes, Chad Henne had two interceptions returned for scores against the Saints, although one came off a drop by Ted Ginn. But Henne was nearly flawless against the Jets, with 241 yards, two TD passes and no sacks in the first meeting. This time, the Jets must pressure him and get him out of his comfort zone.

Jets coach Rex Ryan didn't sleep much in the days following the first meeting, as his vaunted defense allowed the Dolphins three go-ahead touchdowns in the fourth quarter alone. Certainly the Jets have gone back to school on dealing with the Wildcat formation. Stopping it sometimes can be as simple as getting off blocks, but that might not be easy now that injured NT Kris Jenkins is out of the equation. However, Ryan's Baltimore defense did shut Miami down twice last season, and he figures to scheme up something that will make a difference. Expect Sanchez again to execute a basic game plan, and expect the Jets to win this time, but this game should be decided in the last minute. Take Dolphins.

NY Giants at Philadelphia (-2.5)

Last week: Giants lost to Cardinals 24-17; Eagles beat Redskins 27-17.

First place in the NFC East is on the line in the first of two showdowns between these division powerhouses. At one point, the Giants were threatening to leave the Eagles -- and the rest of the division -- in their wake as they opened the season 5-0. But a blowout loss to New Orleans followed by Sunday's 24-17 home loss to Arizona brought Big Blue back down to Earth. The Eagles, after an inexplicable loss to Oakland, improved to 4-2 by downing the Redskins on Monday night, and they have home-field advantage Sunday against the defending division champs.

The history between these rivals is rife with barnburners, defensive struggles and overtime thrillers, making their annual home-and-home series must-see TV. One of these two teams has won the division eight of the past nine years. (In 2006, the Cowboys won the division, but the Giants won the Super Bowl). Both teams have shown a penchant for winning on the other's turf. Last year, the Giants prevailed 36-31 at Lincoln Financial Field but lost the rematch at the Meadowlands, 20-14, and fell at home again in the NFC divisional round.

Question marks surround each team as they battle for division supremacy. The Eagles' offense, rife with weapons, is still plagued by inconsistency, and they rely too heavily on WR DeSean Jackson and the defense to carry the load. The Giants' secondary, which lost safety Kenny Phillips for the season last month, was exposed in consecutive losses to pass-happy New Orleans and Arizona. After a hot start, quarterback Eli Manning is coming off two turnover-plagued games. He has four interceptions and just two touchdown passes in those losses.

Indeed, after playing at an MVP level for the first five games, Manning lost some of his touch as the Giants dropped two games. Getting Manning in a groove with high-percentage throws will help him shake his mini-slump. To do so, offensive coordinator Kevin Gilbride will have to keep the heat off Manning, likely with some max-protect formations.

The Eagles were 0-16 this season on third and 10 or more before breaking through in Washington with a third-and-long conversion. Against the Cardinals, the Giants' defense was at its best on third down, limiting Arizona to 3-14. To keep the Eagles from long drives, the Giants must tackle surely and stay alert against active safety-valve TE Brent Celek.

The Giants have an embarrassment of riches in pass rushers and love to get teams into passing downs to get their nickel package on the field. They have 14 sacks in their five wins but just two in their two losses. If the Eagles can't keep Justin Tuck, Osi Umenyiora and Mathias Kiwanuka off QB Donovan McNabb, it'll be a long night for their offense.

The Eagles can't relax when they see monster halfback Brandon Jacobs or deep-threat wideout Domenik Hixon head for the sidelines. The Giants have some of the best offensive reserves in the league in running back Ahmad Bradshaw, who averages 5.7 yards per carry, and receivers Mario Manningham and rookie Hakeem Nix, who each have four touchdown catches. Stopping those three is as vital as containing Jacobs, Hixon and the Giants' other starters.

You don't have to tell Eagles coach Andy Reid to pass. No head coach in NFL history does it more frequently. The Giants have been generous through the air lately, allowing 600 total passing yards in their past two games, both losses. Expect lots of three- and four-receiver sets from the Eagles as they try to isolate their receivers against the Giants' pedestrian safeties.

There will be plenty of offensive weaponry on the field for both teams, but defense will determine the outcome. The team that wins the turnover battle is likely to come out on top. The Giants won't be scared of the Eagles' home stadium. They've won four consecutive games there. Take Giants.

Atlanta at New Orleans (-9.5)

Last week: Falcons lost to Cowboys 37-21; Saints beat Dolphins 46-34.

If there's going to be an NFC South race this season, the Falcons had better get it started Monday night. The Saints have opened a two-game lead on the rest of the division with their 6-0 start, but the 4-2 Falcons can close that gap with an upset victory in the Superdome. Atlanta appears to be the only legitimate threat to the Saints this year, with Carolina and Tampa Bay struggling so much. The Falcons are coming off of a disappointing road loss at Dallas, and their defense gave up too many passing yards to the Cowboys. They need to bounce back this week against an even more explosive offense.

The Saints have emerged as arguably the best and most exciting team in the NFL, with the league's top-ranked offense (39.7 points per game and 427.3 yards per game) and an opportunistic defense (tied for the league lead with 18 takeaways). Quarterback Drew Brees is playing the position as well as anyone in the league, and he has an embarrassment of riches at his disposal, led by receiver Marques Colston. The Saints have discovered some balance with a power run game, led by Pierre Thomas and Mike Bell. And they even proved they can handle adversity, rallying back from a 21-point deficit at Miami before escaping with a 46-34 victory.

This will be a measuring stick for the Falcons, who are trying to build off their Cinderella 2008 season. Their two losses are perfectly understandable -- at New England and at Dallas. And their star players (QB Matt Ryan, RB Michael Turner, WR Roddy White, TE Tony Gonzalez and DE John Abraham) have been solid, if not as spectacular as last year. But their defense has been shaky, ranking 25th in the NFL with 368.3 yards allowed per game. At some point, they need a big performance in a big game like this if they want to be considered a serious playoff threat. This could be a huge launching point for them if they take the leap Monday night.

The Falcons must blitz to generate pressure on Drew Brees. If they sit back in the zone all day, with no pressure from the front four, Brees would pick apart the secondary. There is a major downside to blitzing Brees, though. Blitzing would leave the cornerbacks in man-to-man coverage, and that hasn't worked out well for the Falcons this season.

The Saints have added a solid running attack with Thomas and Bell, which has made Brees even more dangerous. He has great targets in wide receivers Colston, Lance Moore, Devery Henderson and Robert Meachem, as well as running back Reggie Bush and tight end Jeremy Shockey. The Falcons have to take away some of those options, starting with the rushing attack and perhaps Shockey.

The Saints have become a balanced team, and yes their greatest asset is still the passing attack. And Atlanta's biggest weakness has been its pass defense. The Falcons have allowed consecutive 300-yard passing games to Chicago's Jay Cutler and Dallas' Tony Romo. The Falcons are even more depleted after cornerback Brian Williams sustained a season-ending knee injury three weeks ago. Brees, meanwhile, has all of his weapons healthy and playing at a high level.

Thanks in part to safety Darren Sharper, the Saints lead the league with 18 takeaways. The Saints' secondary is vastly improved in '09, but the Falcons must attack and not give them the night off. The Falcons must unleash the fury of tight end Tony Gonzalez and wide receivers Roddy White and Michael Jenkins in this game.

The best chance of slowing Brees is Abraham, who tortured the Saints in one of two meetings last year. The Saints struggled early last week against Miami's pass rush, which featured a number of blitzes and stunts, though they adjusted well in the second half. Third-year pro Jermon Bushrod has taken over at left tackle in place of injured Pro Bowler Jammal Brown. Bushrod has shown some inconsistency but has been mostly solid. This will be one of his toughest individual matchups to date.

The Saints' most dramatic improvement is their aggressiveness on defense. The Saints' defense used to be known for giving up big plays. Now, it makes them. The Saints are tied for the NFL lead with 18 takeaways. Sharper has been their steals specialist, with six interceptions, three of them returned for touchdowns. The Saints also are forcing key fumbles on almost a weekly basis. They have a newfound aggressive mentality under coordinator Gregg Williams. And it was particularly critical last week when trailing 24-3 at Miami. First, safety Roman Harper forced a big fumble that led to a touchdown drive. Then Sharper intercepted a pass and returned it 42 yards for a score. All of a sudden, the Saints were within 7 points.

Perhaps the most dramatic win in Saints history came on Monday Night Football against the Falcons three years ago, when they reopened the Superdome for the first time following Hurricane Katrina. Obviously they can't match that type of emotion in this regular-season date with the Falcons. But the city has reached a fever pitch with the Saints playing arguably the best football in their 43-year history. And the Dome will be rocking if the Saints can get off to a 7-0 start for the second time in franchise history, opening a three-game lead in the NFC South race in the process. Carefully take Saints.

Houston at Buffalo (+3.5)

Last week: Texans beat 49ers 24-21; Bills beat Panthers 20-9.

Winning can do a lot for a team's confidence, which is why the Bills and Texans are feeling a lot better about themselves. The Bills are coming off their first back-to-back road wins since 2004. Texan Matt Schaub is playing as well as any quarterback in the NFL.

The Bills' run defense has been awful, but the Texans' struggling running game may not be able to take advantage. The Bills have just one win over a team with a winning record, so they are looking to make a statement against a quality opponent. Nevertheless, Take Texans.

Cleveland at Chicago (-13.5)

Last week: Browns lost to Packers 31-3; Bears lost Bengals 45-10.

Expect the Bears to come out charged up from the start after getting stuck in the gate last week and also because Soldier Field will be electrified as it's the 10th anniversary of the death of the franchise's greatest player, Walter Payton. There will be a pregame ceremony dedicated to his memory.

The Browns hung around through a quarter and a half last week with Green Bay, though, and the same should happen here until the Bears defense starts to force some turnovers -- a rare sight this year. Take Bears.

Seattle at Dallas (-9.5)

Last week: Seahawks lost to Cardinals two weeks ago 27-3; Cowboys beat Falcons 37-21.

The Cowboys are playing with more confidence than they have at any point this season, in part because Tony Romo feels better than ever about the offense. The Cowboys have a number of offensive weapons, and when Romo plays well, they can put up big numbers fast. Seattle simply doesn't have the offensive firepower to threaten Dallas without help from turnovers. Take Cowboys.

St-Louis at Detroit (-3.5)

Last week: Rams lost to Colts 42-6; Lions lost to Packers two weeks ago 26-0.

Simply put, the Lions must do to the Rams what every team did to the Lions last season -- come out aggressive and try to put them away early. The Rams are reeling and the Lions must keep the St. Louis sideline in chaos. Detroit can't allow the Rams to stay in the game and build confidence.

The problem is, the Lions have been poor in maintaining a lead. They'll get off to a good start, but then wilt in the second half. Still, they will have built a sizeable lead just enough to prevail. Take Lions.

San Francisco at Indianapolis (-11.5)

Last week: 49ers lost to Texans 24-21; Colts beat Rams 42-6.

The Colts should welcome a break in the schedule. They return to Lucas Oil Stadium for the first time since Oct. 4, when they routed Seattle. Even though WR Reggie Wayne (groin) might be less than 100 percent, the offense is playing at a high level and the defense is regaining its health. Safety Bob Sanders will be making his second appearance and should be more effective and help in run support against RB Frank Gore.

49er QB Alex Smith –who almost rallied his squad last week- will get the nod as the starter and was impressive in his last outing against Houston. He will keep things close against the Colts. Take points and 49ers.

Oakland at San Diego (-16.5)

Last week: Raiders lost to Jets 38-0; Chargers beat Chiefs 37-7.

However it happens, the Chargers have simply dominated the Raiders since the 2003 season finale. There are just eight players on their roster that have lost to the Raiders as Chargers.

The Chargers always believe they can come back, having done so often under Norv Turner. But they especially believe they can do so against the Raiders. Their games have not always been blowouts. In fact, the Chargers have had to stage fourth-quarter comebacks in two of the past three. With the Chargers ascending and the Raiders floundering, and with this game in San Diego, the Chargers don't have to come back this time. Take Chargers.

Jacksonville at Tennessee (-2.5)

Last week: Jaguars beat Rams two weeks ago 23-20; Titans lost to Patriots two weeks ago 59-0.

The Titans should have plenty of life coming off the bye, eager to put the events of the first 6 weeks behind them. The Jaguars are also coming off a bye, and want to establish themselves as a playoff contender. Sooner or later the Titans are going to find a way to win a ball game.

They have too much talent remaining from a team that won an NFL-best 13 games last season. With some key starters returning on defense, they'll be in a much better position to make it happen on Sunday but it won’t happen this week. Take Jaguars.

Carolina at Arizona (-8.5)

Last week: Panthers lost to Bills 20-9; Cardinals beat Giants 24-17.

The Cardinals re-grouped during their bye in Week 4 and have played like a different team. Their defense is coming off two consecutive dominant performances, probably the unit's best back-to-back games in years. The run defense has been excellent, which makes this a favorable matchup for the Cardinals. The Panthers' passing game has been awful this year. If the Cardinals don't suffer a mental letdown, this game shouldn't be close. The key will be protecting Kurt Warner and not letting Carolina made big plays on the ground. Take Cardinals.

Open date: Cincinnati, Kansas City, Pittsburgh, Tampa Bay, Washington & New England.

 

By: Aengus Moorehead @ 16:18 | Category: Football  | Comments: 0 | Permalink

Week 7

October 24 2009 @ 15:57

Greetings Lasses and Lads.

Damn spreads would you not say? Steelers and Vikings could not hold on late in their games and we had to pay for their misgivings. Half a point. The Packers dutifully did their task as well as the Patriots in a masterful display of domination. That was it though. Oh! And the Saints who dismantled the Giants which such ease.

The Chiefs, Texans, Cardinals, Bills, Broncos and the Raiders all managed to upset their counterparts.

This week, the Patriots fill out Wembley Stadium in London to play the Buccs, the only team with double-digit advantage along with the Rams against the Colts which is my no-brainer for this weekend.

My upset of the week: Falcons (+3.5) at Cowboys.

My no-brainer of the week: Colts (-12.5) at Rams.

My record against the spread

Last week: 6-8.

Season: 46-44.

 

Chicago at Cincinnati (-1.5)

Last week: Bears lost to Falcons 21-14; Bengals lost to Texans 28-17.

Unceremoniously dumped by the Chicago Bears in June 2008, former first-round draft pick Cedric Benson is one of the Bengals' shining stars. He's third in the league in rushing with 531 yards, and he's out for revenge against his former club. Limited to 44 yards on 16 carries in last week's 28-17 loss to Houston, Benson wants to rebound strong. Benson has good quickness, strength and body lean. He prides himself on picking up yards after first contact. He won't go down easily against the team that drafted, and then released him.

The Bengals also signed DT Orien Harris after placing RE Antwan Odom on Injured Reserve with a torn Achilles suffered against the Texans. Harris provides much-needed DL depth in the wake of LDE Domata Peko's left knee sprain. Replacing Odom's eight sacks is a major challenge, but rookie end Michael Johnson and veteran Jonathan Fanene will give the Bengals their best shot.

Meanwhile, Chicago fell at Atlanta, 21-14, coming off its bye. RB Matt Forte has been working on his ball security after his uncharacteristic goal-line fumble contributed to the Bears' defeat. Can the Bengals force him to cough it up again? That's what makes the game worth watching.

Defensive tackles Tommie Harris and Marcus Harrison must cause trouble in the backfield, especially this week against former teammate  Benson, a classic downhill runner. Benson can make one cut and hit the hole at full speed. He never is going to stop and dance past anyone. The Bears penetrated and made the Falcons' Michael Turner move more than one direction before cutting last week, and the result was a 13-carry, 30-yard effort, which helped put the defense in the top five league-wide against the run. Stopping Benson would put great pressure on QB Carson Palmer.

The Bears' beleaguered offensive line has been fine against a conventional pass rush. When blitz pressure is turned up, though, it's been another story. The Bears can be certain the Bengals will blitz after losing Odom  and Peko. Losing Odom is a devastating blow. It means the club will have to scheme with safety, corner and linebacker blitzes to generate a pass rush. If Cutler can handle the hot reads, the Bengals are in for a long afternoon.

Two other defensive linemen are battling injuries, including ex-Bears defensive tackle Tank Johnson (foot). The pressure is going to have to come from somewhere. If QB Jay Cutler gets time, the Bengals are easy targets with their 28th-ranked pass defense.

The Bengals' game plan: Keep it close, then pull it out in the end. As long as it's a one-score game, they cannot abandon the run because it sets up Palmer for play-action passes. They must keep feeding Benson because he gets stronger as the game goes along. And he's eventually going to bust loose.

The Bengals dared to kick to Browns Pro Bowler Josh Cribbs, and he lit 'em up. Has coach Marvin Lewis learned his lesson? Or will he try the same strategy against Chicago's Devin Hester? Armed with 11 kick returns for touchdowns (seven punts, four kickoffs); Hester is a dangerous weapon every time he touches the ball. The Bengals must control field position. Keeping Hester in check is a major priority.

Home teams are supposed to take visitors to the woodshed. In Cincinnati, it's the opposite. The Bengals (4-2) are the only division leader with a losing record at home (1-2), where they perform poorly. They seem distracted by all the distractions, and that better change in a hurry. If you don't protect your turf, you don't make the playoffs. Without Odom, the Bengals' pass rush is suspect at best. The cornerbacks will be forced to cover longer. Translation: Jay Cutler should have a big game with his big arm. The Bengals must enjoy first place while it lasts. Take Bears.

Minnesota at Pittsburgh (-3.5)

Last week: Vikings beat Ravens 33-31; Steelers beat Browns 27-14.

There are more than enough subplots for this game, which matches one of the NFC's two unbeaten teams against the defending Super Bowl champion on a three-game winning streak.

The most obvious story line is the battle between quarterbacks Brett Favre and Ben Roethlisberger, each of whom ranks No. 2 in his respective conference in passer rating. Roethlisberger has thrown for more yards (1,889) and has a higher completion percentage (72.5), but Favre has thrown more touchdown passes (12) and fewer interceptions (2).

Then there is the matter of Steelers coach Mike Tomlin, the youngest coach to win a Super Bowl, facing his former team for the first time. Tomlin was the Vikings' defensive coordinator for one season (2006) before joining the Steelers. The Minnesota defense he helped build is the only one in the league that, statistically, has played better against the run than the Steelers in each of the past three seasons.

The Steelers' run defense, which ranks second in the NFL, will be put to the ultimate test against Adrian Peterson, who Pittsburgh has never faced. And they will be doing it without their best run-stuffing lineman, defensive end Aaron Smith, who is out for the season with a torn rotator cuff.

The Steelers QB was sacked more than any other NFL QB from 2004-2008. But Pittsburgh's pass protection is much improved this season, and the Vikings have to find a way to pressure him, even when he uses a no-huddle, shotgun attack. The Vikings will try blitzing, but they have to be careful because Roethlisberger could make them pay with his mobility.

The Vikings became conservative with their play-calling after jumping out to a 14-0 lead over Baltimore, and the Ravens almost rallied to win the game. If the Vikings get in a similar situation at Pittsburgh, they have to stay aggressive. The Steelers' offense is potent through the air, and no Vikings lead would be safe.

When Favre has enough time to throw, he thrives. His passer rating (109.5) ranks third in the NFL behind Peyton Manning (114.1) and Drew Brees (118.4). Favre has been getting the time to throw he needs from the offensive line, and that's directly related to his improved play. The Steelers blitzed more against Cleveland last week to get pressure, and they could try to use that strategy against Favre.

The Steelers haven't allowed a 100-yard rusher in 24 consecutive games (28 counting postseason), but this is the first time they will be facing Peterson, who leads the NFL with 624 rushing yards and seven touchdowns. He also has six runs of 20 yards or longer, most in the NFC.

Defensive end Jared Allen leads the NFC with 7.5 sacks, and it will be his job to disrupt Roethlisberger, who leads the league in passing yards and is completing 72.5 percent of his passes. Roethlisberger's protection has been vastly improved, one of the reasons he has been able to stand in the pocket and let his receivers get open. Roethlisberger had nine passes of 20 yards or more against the Browns.

As the defending Super Bowl champion, the Steelers are accustomed to their opponent circling the game and getting amped to play them. But because the Vikings are unbeaten, and because it is Favre's first appearance in Pittsburgh in 11 years, it is the Steelers who will get amped to play an opponent. Pittsburgh has to pick its poison when deciding which player to stop: Favre or Peterson. But the Vikings will have a bigger problem: Trying to find a way to slow Roethlisberger and his diverse passing game. Roethlisberger has averaged 314 yards per game this season and repeatedly makes big plays downfield. Pittsburgh wins it but the Vikings keeps it close. Take Vikings.

NY Jets at Oakland (+6.5)

Last week: Jets lost to Bills 16-13; Raiders beat Eagles 13-9.

The Raiders are fresh from a stunning victory over the Eagles. The Jets, meanwhile, have lost three straight after a surprising 3-0 start. Raiders fans aren't sure what to make of their team quite yet based off the Raiders losing three straight games by a combined 80 points and then holding the Eagles -- the league's second-highest-scoring team -- without a touchdown. Raiders quarterback JaMarcus Russell will be under the microscope once again as he plays against a rookie quarterback, Mark Sanchez, who has performed better than Russell at times this season. Raiders fans have booed Russell, at times, each of the past two home games. They certainly will let their feelings be known if Sanchez outplays Russell on Sunday. Russell staved off the boos last Sunday with an 86-yard touchdown pass. It will be interesting to see how fans judge him in a game in which Sanchez is involved, as well.

Raiders managing general partner Al Davis hired Art Shell, Lane Kiffin and Tom Cable at times when former defensive coordinator Rob Ryan wanted the job. As a result, Ryan wanted out of Oakland, and he got his wish when his contract ended after last season. Ryan, his twin brother Rex and their father Buddy take things personal when it comes to their family, so it will be compelling to watch Jets coach Rex Ryan and how he handles a game against the team that employed his brother the past five seasons but didn't deem him worthy enough to be the head coach.

Ryan now admits the coaches put too much on the rookie quarterback's plate and says they will scale back the game plan, protection calls and pre-snap reads. Against Oakland's 27th-ranked run defense, the Jets should try to pound the ball between the tackles with Thomas Jones and use Leon Washington outside on sweeps.

The Jets' much-ballyhooed attacking defense is tied for last in sacks, and the Jets have had only one QB takedown in the last three games. Oakland has allowed 17 sacks, and Russell is inaccurate even when there isn't pressure. The Jets must mix up blitzes and coverages to confuse Russell, who doesn't read defenses well period.

The Raiders' kickoff-coverage team ranks 29th in the NFL, allowing opponents an average start at their 29.1-yard line. Leon Washington is averaging only 24.1 yards per return, below his career average, and this could be the chance for him to break out. Shorter fields definitely would help Sanchez, who could use some easy scoring drives for a confidence boost.

The Jets amassed 318 yards rushing last week and rank second in the league in rushing yards per game. The Raiders must crowd the line, use a lot of man-to-man coverage so other defenders are freed up to converge on Jones and Washington and dare Sanchez to beat them.

The Raiders should keep at least one running back or receiver in on most downs to help negate the Jets' blitz package. The Jets like to blitz linebackers Bart Scott and Calvin Pace as well as safeties Kerry Rhodes and Jim Leonhard often. This will limit the number of receiving options Russell has on most downs.

The Raiders upset the Eagles last week, in large part, because they disrupted the rhythm of QB Donovan McNabb. The Raiders must use a similar approach against Sanchez, who is fresh from a five-interception game. Sanchez still is adjusting to the speed and complexity of the NFL, and he is vulnerable to pressure.

The Raiders seem to be on to something after looking so lost the previous three games. Coach Tom Cable is confident that his players cleared a hurdle by beating the Eagles and that the momentum won't be wasted, as it has been in years past after impressive victories.

The Raiders catch the Jets at a great time, with defensive tackle Kris Jenkins out for the season, Sanchez on the heels of five interceptions and the Jets having to fly to the West Coast after three straight losses. The Raiders new-look defense that incorporates a steady diet of blitzing will prove too confusing for Sanchez and lead to several costly turnovers. Look for the Raiders to make it two straight. Take Raiders.

Atlanta at Dallas (-3.5)

Last week: Falcons beat Bears 21-14; Cowboys beat Chiefs two weeks ago 26-20.

The Cowboys, trying to prove they should be lumped with the best teams in the NFC, are looking to win consecutive games for the first time this season, while Atlanta is trying to keep pace with New Orleans.

The way the Saints are playing, even though it's early, Atlanta might be fighting for a wild card spot in December when the playoffs are on the line. If that's the case, a win over Dallas will be important for tie-breaker purposes.

It's a swing game for the Cowboys, who have beaten three of the NFL's worst teams -- Tampa Bay, Carolina and Kansas City -- and need a win over a quality team to validate themselves.

The Cowboys have an advantage in this game because they're coming off a bye week. The Falcons played the late Sunday game and must travel.

Dallas expects to have receiver Roy Williams (ribs) in the lineup as well as running back Felix Jones (knee), who missed the past two games. Starter Marion Barber is expected to get a full week of practice at top speed.

Atlanta, 5-5 on the road in its past 10 games, will rely on quarterback Matt Ryan to get the ball to receiver Roddy White and tight end Tony Gonzalez, knowing that Dallas has allowed three opponents to tie the score late in the fourth quarter with long drives.

The Cowboys struggle to put opponents away, so if the Falcons stay close, they'll have a chance to win late.

But Atlanta’s offense struggled last week, going three-and-out on its first three possessions. In order to jumpstart the offense, coaches went to a no-huddle attack that produced two touchdown drives and took control of the game. Ryan is comfortable in running packages where the offense looks to force opponents into coverage mismatches when it flexes out Gonzalez.

On defense, the Falcons have stuffed the run in their past two games, holding the 49ers' running backs to 47 yards rushing and the Bears' to 49 yards. However, they let San Francisco QB Shaun Hill scramble for 53 yards, and Chicago's Jay Cutler got loose for 34 yards. Falcons pass rusher are so laser focused on getting after the QB they aren't staying in their rush lanes.

The secondary was shaky in preseason, and the loss of cornerback Brian Williams to a knee injury will put more stress on the unit. Cornerbacks Brent Grimes and Chris Houston must step up their play. Chevis Jackson, who played nickel back last season, is the likely candidate to cover slot receivers. This is a less-than-daunting unit and could have trouble against the Cowboys' receivers.

Ryan has not been sacked since the third quarter of the opener against Miami, a stretch of 123 passes. The Falcons use a combination of protection schemes and three- and five-step drops to make sure Ryan has time to throw without being under duress.

After a slow start, Dallas has 10 sacks in its past three games. Outside linebackers DeMarcus Ware and Anthony Spencer have combined for two sacks, but they excel at pressuring and hitting quarterbacks.

Offensively, the Cowboys have seven touchdowns in 15 red zone possessions. With Felix Jones back in the lineup and Barber considerably healthier after a week off, Dallas should be able to run the ball inside the 20-yard line.

That will make Romo's play-action passes more effective, especially if the Cowboys run the ball well enough to force Atlanta to commit a safety to run defense. There's no good reason for a team leading the league in yards per play (6.8) and second in yards (420.4) should be ranked 14th in scoring (24.4).

Coaches have made it clear they don't want Romo making too many decisions because of his penchant for making bad one that lead to turnovers. So they lean on their running game that has produced 150-plus yards three times. For the first time in three weeks, all three runners Barber, Jones and Tashard Choice are healthy, which means Dallas will attempt to control the tempo on the ground against the Falcons' undersized defensive line. That will also keep Atlanta's offense off the field.

Atlanta can run it, throw it and play defense, which is why this is game will be a struggle for the Cowboys, who have a penchant for making mistakes. The Cowboys must play their best game of the season, even at home, to beat Atlanta. That means eliminating turnovers and penalties that have plagued them all season. It won’t happen. Take Falcons.

Arizona at NY Giants (-6.5)

Last week: Cardinals beat Seahawks 27-3; Giants lost to Saints 48-27.

The Giants on defense were embarrassed in New Orleans, allowing the most points (48) they've given up in more than 10 years and are anxious to get back on the field and back on track.

There's no doubt the Giants No. 1 defensive ranking was in part a product of their soft schedule and that ranking figures to drop, as the Giants continue to play without several key players on defense: S Kenny Phillips, LB Michael Boley and CB Aaron Ross are all starters on the shelf and DT Chris Canty was imported as a free agent to get significant time in the line rotation. None of them will play vs. the Cardinals.

The Giants actually were too concerned about the Saints' running game and as a result reacted too aggressively to the many play-fakes thrown at them.

The weather won't yet be wintry on the East coast, but the Cardinals are making a long trip and will have to get something done on the ground if they are to escape Giants Stadium with a victory.

The Cardinals have been known as one of the worst road teams in the NFL but they are 2-0 this season and coming off a game in noisy Seattle where they allowed the fewest points (three) in a game on the road since 1974.

At times this season the Cardinals have struggled trying to show that last year's Super Bowl run was not a fluke and knocking off the Giants would go a long way in stamping Arizona as once again a legitimate contender in the NFC.

Kurt Warner's three best games this season have come when protected the best. In the two losses, against the 49ers and Colts, he was under constant pressure. The Giants have a number of pass rushers, and the Cardinals line has had trouble handling stunts and twists. The linemen must be sharp mentally and physically to give Warner time.

The Cardinals are the No. 1 defense against the run and have shut down some good backs, including the 49ers' Frank Gore and Jaguars' Maurice Jones-Drew. But they haven't faced a running attack as good as the Giants'. If the Giants run effectively, it opens up the play-action passing game for Eli Manning.

The Giants had trouble against the Saints' passing game last week, and the Cardinals' offense is just as diverse. However, opponents are double-teaming Fitzgerald and limiting his big plays. His longest catch this season is 26 yards. The Cardinals must find a way to get him loose deep, and Warner can't miss him when it happens.

Given the ineptitude of the secondary at New Orleans last week, it's a given Warner will try to administer the same punishment with Fitzgerald, Anquan Boldin and Steve Breaston. More than anything, the Giants must clean up the assignment errors that allowed Saints receivers to run free, meaning better communication is the key.

An early and big deficit last week forced the Giants to abandon the run, which showed signs of being effective. Running the ball and time of possession are hallmarks of the Giants' offense, and they must get back to that against the Cardinals, who allow only 2.8 yards per rush. Running back Brandon Jacobs has yet to have a 100-yard game this season. If he's not on his game early, Ahmad Bradshaw should get more carries. This could be the week the coaches mix in running back Danny Ware into some third-down packages because he is a solid receiver out of the backfield.

The Giants weren't able to run the ball on the Cardinals last season but still managed to score 37 points in a victory in Arizona, getting a three-touchdown outing from Eli Manning. The Cardinals have allowed more than 100 rushing yards only once this season and the burden could again fall on Manning. Figure the Giants defense, eager for redemption after allowing 48 points in New Orleans, will be able to set up some points with a turnover but also figure Kurt Warner will pile up passing yards against a suspect Giants secondary.

The key will be keeping the Cardinals a one-dimensional offense, as they struggle to run the ball and it's doubtful Warner can escape Giants Stadium with a victory without a ground game to fall back on. They will keep close however. Take Cardinals.

Green Bay at Cleveland (+6.5)

Last week: Packers beat Lions 26-0; Browns lost to Steelers 27-14.

The Packers are asking for trouble if they don't commit fewer penalties. They are on course to set franchise records for both number of penalties and yardage lost. Against a contender, this would probably make a difference. Against a team like Detroit, 13 penalties didn't get in the way of a lopsided 26-0 victory. Still, Cleveland has shown only fleeting signs it is better than the Lions.

On the other hand, the Browns have been easy targets for quarterbacks who throw for lots of yards. That's what happened against Ben Roethlisberger, and that's what is likely to happen against Aaron Rodgers, who is coming off a big-yardage day against Detroit. There is little reason to believe the Browns' feckless offense could engage in even a low-level shootout. The Packers, on the other hand, are warming up to a playoff race. Take Packers.

San Francisco at Houston (-2.5)

Last week: 49ers lost to Falcons two weeks ago 45-10; Texans beat Bengals 28-17.

The Texans finished 3-1 against the NFC in each of the last two seasons, and they're 0-1 this season after a loss at Arizona. The Niners are a physical team on both sides of the ball. Expect the defense to contain Gore and make the Niners one-dimensional. Then Shaun Hill will throw to rookie receiver Michael Crabtree and tight end Vernon Davis. Hill doesn't have to worry about interceptions because the Texans have only two. Expect both running games to be contained and for this game to become a shootout between Schaub and Hill. This vote goes to Schaub. Take Texans.

San Diego at Kansas City (+4.5)

Last week: Chargers lost to Broncos 34-23; Chiefs beat Redskins 14-6.

Each team can rightly be viewing this game as a potential victory. Kansas City may be making progress but still has plenty of issues holding it back. San Diego, unlike in recent seasons, is likewise vulnerable in many areas. So this game will go to the team best able to exploit its opponent's weaknesses. Look for the Chargers to be that team.

 While they are searching for a defensive identity, it doesn't take a strong defensive team to handle the Chiefs, who have done nothing well consistently when they have the ball. Kansas City may give San Diego some problems when the Chargers have the ball and could do some damage on special teams, but the Chiefs will need some points to win this game. Without the aid of turnovers, that probably won't happen. Take Chargers.

Indianapolis at St-Louis (+12.5)

Last week: Colts beat Titans two weeks ago 31-9; Rams lost to Jaguars 23-20.

The Rams are beaten and beat up. The Colts don't seem to play down to the level of their competition, either. And the young St. Louis secondary is susceptible, particularly with its best corner, Ron Bartell, still bothered by a nagging thigh injury. In addition, nickel back Justin King and the team's best defensive lineman, James Hall, are hobbled by groin injuries. In short, this could be very ugly for St. Louis. It's a bad matchup just about any way you look at it. Peyton Manning might be able to pick his score. Take Colts.

New England at Tampa Bay (played in London, UK) (+14.5)

Last week: Patriots beat Titans 59-0; Buccaneers lost to Panthers 28-21.

This seemed like it would be a pretty good matchup when the NFL put it together almost a year ago. The Bucs' decision to rebuild has changed all that. The Patriots have found their groove and the Bucs still seem lost. There's a chance the Bucs could be embarrassed in this one, but look for them to stand up to the challenge and give the Patriots a game for at least a quarter or two. Take Patriots.

Buffalo at Carolina (-7.5)

Last week: Bills beat Jets 16-13; Panthers beat Buccaneers 28-21.

As smart as it would be for the Panthers to call plays for Delhomme to simply hand the ball off, no one expects them to go that route. They'll dial up a few deep balls in an effort to get Delhomme and Steve Smith back on the same page.

As poor as the Bills run defense is, it's unlikely they'll play seven in the box the way Tampa Bay did last week, which means they'll have chances to make some plays downfield. But the Panthers are still John Fox's team, so they're going to run first and run often, and unless the Bills' run defense improves this week, the Panthers have the advantage. Take Panthers.

New Orleans at Miami (+6.5)

Last week: Saints beat Giants 48-27; Dolphins beat Jets two weeks ago 31-27.

The Dolphins tend to perform well when they are heavy underdogs, but it's difficult to pick against the Saints in this game. Drew Brees has been playing unconscious football lately, getting points at will against the NFL's best teams. So even though New Orleans will be on the road facing an unfamiliar opponent that uses an unconventional offense, the Saints still seem primed for another win as their undefeated season rolls on. Take Saints.

Philadelphia at Washington (+6.5)

Last week: Eagles lost to Raiders 13-9; Redskins lost to Chiefs 14-6.

Philadelphia's 12th-ranked offense has produced three 30-plus point games this season, but also has been shut down twice. Defense is the only reason Washington has had a chance to win five of the first six games. It'll keep the Redskins close, for a while, in this one. Their corners match up well with the Eagles' wideouts.

But their offense has too many issues to expect a new play-caller, who was out of the NFL for four seasons and has been in town less than three weeks, to solve them. The offense does nothing well; Philadelphia's pass rush will provide headaches for Washington and opportunities for the Eagles' offense. Take Eagles.

Open date: Baltimore, Denver, Detroit, Jacksonville, Seattle & Tennessee.

 

 

 

By: Aengus Moorehead @ 15:57 | Category: Football  | Comments: 0 | Permalink

Week 6

October 17 2009 @ 17:16

Week 6

Greetings Lasses and Lads.

Last week, favourites combined for a dismal 5-8 record against the spread. Yet, three (Giants, Eagles & Vikings) of those giving up double-digit numbers were easy winners. Only the Steelers failed to cover against the Lions and six favourites lost their games outright.

Again this week, three teams (Lions, Raiders & Browns) will enjoy enviable double-digit cushion while the Rams, Titans and Bills will start their games ahead 9.5.  

My upset of the week: Chiefs (+6.5) over the Redskins.

My no-brainer pick: Eagles (-13.5) over the Raiders.

 

My record against the spread:

Last week: 7-7

Season: 40-36

Baltimore at Minnesota (-2.5)

Last week: Ravens lost to Bengals 17-14; Minnesota beat Rams 38-10.

So, just how good are the 5-0 Vikings? Now we'll get a better idea.

The Vikings have benefitted from playing a fairly weak schedule, and that leaves unanswered questions about their fast start. Only one of the five teams Minnesota has defeated -- San Francisco (3-2) -- currently has a winning record.

Baltimore represents perhaps the toughest measuring-stick game for the Vikings so far. And it's the first of three tough games in a row, with trips to Pittsburgh and Green Bay to follow.

The Ravens feature a balanced offense led by quarterback Joe Flacco to complement their traditionally tough defense. That could cause problems for the Vikings, who are 14th in total defense but third in points allowed (18 per game).

The Ravens are coming off back-to-back losses to New England and Cincinnati, and as Vikings tight end Visanthe Shiancoe put it, that should make them angry "like a bees nest."

The Vikings are 1-0 since Brett Favre turned 40 on Saturday, and he seems to be improving as the season progresses. He seems to be getting in better football shape and hasn't had any problems with his throwing arm. He was able to get some much needed rest after sitting out much of the fourth quarter during a 38-10 win at St. Louis. That's a good thing because with three tough opponents coming up before the bye week, Favre might not get another chance to rest for a while.

Defensively, the Vikings have an athletic front seven, and it's hard to run against them even though the Ravens have a strong running attack. Playing in front of a hostile and loud crowd, the Ravens will need to take some chances on the long ball downfield. On first downs, the Ravens should try some play actions and go downfield. Flacco’s arm has to beat the Vikings.

The Vikings' defense hasn't been as impressive this season in terms of the yards allowed. But Minnesota's red-zone defense leads the NFL, surrendering just four TDs in 13 possessions inside the 20. The Vikings can stop the run on the goal line, have athletic linebackers who close quickly on tight ends in the pass game, and their defensive backs have made plays on the ball in the end zone.

You can't beat the Vikings without controlling running back Adrian Peterson. To do that is nearly impossible, but the best way to try is to keep Peterson running laterally, and not allow him to square his pads near the line of scrimmage and go downhill. You have to stay in your lanes and not allow Peterson to jump to daylight. When pursuing Peterson, a defensive player always has to be under control.

Baltimore hadn't allowed a 100-yard rusher in 40 games until Cedric Benson gashed them for 120 yards. The Ravens rank fourth against the run, but they face their toughest test yet against Minnesota Peterson, who ranks second in the NFL in rushing (481 yards) and first in TDs (7).

The Ravens are one of the most penalized teams in the NFL, drawing about an average of eight a game for minus 65 yards. You can beat the Cleveland Browns or the Kansas City Chiefs with those numbers but not the top teams like the Patriots or Vikings. Giving up field position to Peterson and Favre can be deadly.

The Ravens' pass defense has been a weak link, and it's up to Brett Favre to test Ravens CBs Domonique Foxworth, Fabian Washington and Chris Carr. Safety Ed Reed is still scary, but he doesn't have much help. This could be a perfect game for Vikings WRs Sidney Rice (posts) and Bernard Berrian (slants) to put up big numbers.

The Vikings are having more fun this season than they've had in a long time. Last year they started 1-3 and had to fight to win a weak NFC North and make the playoffs. Now expectations are much higher about what they can accomplish this season. Defeating a good Baltimore team -- and in what manner -- could reveal much more about what the Vikings are capable of accomplishing. Take Vikings.

 NY Giants at New Orleans (-2.5)

Last week: Giants beat Raiders 44-7; Saints beat Jets two weeks ago 24-10.

This is as big as it gets in mid-October. The Giants and Saints are both undefeated, and may be the top two teams in the NFL right now. This game might wind up shaping the playoff seeding in the NFC, and the matchup is compelling.

The Saints are one of the NFL's most dynamic offensive team, with Drew Brees firing away at a wealth of receiving options. But they are just starting to show an ability to handle physical teams like New York, which boasts the NFL's top-ranked defense.

So far this season, both of these teams have shown great balance. The Saints are playing great on defense and they're running the ball with authority; two areas where they've significantly improved. And the Giants' passing offense has been more effective than expected with a bunch of young receivers stepping up.

Brees and Eli Manning can practically punch their tickets to the Pro Bowl based on what they've done so far this season. But this will be the toughest test to date for both of them. The Giants have by far the stingiest pass defense in the league, allowing just 104.8 yards per game through the air. They're physical up front and they're physical with receivers.

The Saints, meanwhile, have a much-improved and aggressive defense that leads the NFL with 10 interceptions through just four games. Manning, who is recovering from a foot injury, will need to be at his best in a loud Superdome environment. Although New Orleans is his hometown, the crowd won't be on his side.

Saints tight end Jeremy Shockey will face his former team for the first time since he was traded away before the start of last season. There's no love lost between the volatile tight end and the Giants. No doubt, he'll want to get some revenge on the field. Shockey has become a big part of the Saints' offense this year after his 2008 season was plagued by a sports hernia. He leads the team with 18 receptions for 162 yards and two touchdowns. He'll be a difficult matchup for the Giants defense, which will be without weak side linebacker Michael Boley.

The Giants know all about Shockey, who spent the first six years of his NFL career playing for them. He is a highly-emotional player who can turn on a home crowd with his receptions and antics but he's also been known to get too hyped-up and make key mistakes based on too much aggression and without Boley, the Giants don't have a speedy linebacker able to run with Shockey and will likely use S Michael Johnson in coverage.

After grinding to a halt the feeble passing attacks of the Buccaneers, Chiefs and Raiders, the Giants secondary gets a much stiffer challenge against Brees, who makes quick decisions and gets the ball on target. Once again, the Giants will go without CB Aaron Ross, who hasn't played this season with ongoing hamstring issues. In his place, Terrell Thomas has played very well, but this will be his biggest test yet. CB Corey Webster is developing into a shut-down corner and he will be challenged by Marques Colston, who is a go-to player with a big frame and outstanding hands. Webster must jam Colston off the line and knock him off his routes, a difficult assignment.

Last week the Giants had six sacks of JaMarcus Russell and DE Osi Umenyiora didn't have any of them, although he did apply good pressure and used his quickness to recover a fumble. Umenyiora missed all of last season following knee surgery and isn't in top form just yet. The Giants must put pressure on Brees and Umenyiora might be the best way to do it. The Saints lost LT Jammal Brown for the season and in his place they use Jermon Bushrod and Zach Strief. This is a matchup Umenyiora must win, going against backup players.

Although the Saint’s QB has been surprisingly quiet in the past two games, his posse instead decided to show some patience and play the field-position game in victories over the Bills and Jets. But chances are, they'll need to score more points and dial up a few more big plays against the Giants.

The Saints' rushing success has been a pleasant surprise this year after they struggled to run consistently the past two years. And now, they have all of their runners healthy for the first time this season. Pierre Thomas, who missed the first two games and much of the preseason with a sprained knee, was terrific in Weeks 3 and 4, showing a combination of speed, quickness and power. He should be even healthier after the bye. Mike Bell, who filled in for Thomas while he was hurt, was also outstanding before he suffered his own knee sprain. He should return in a supporting role this week. And Reggie Bush will continue to get a decent amount of carries, in addition to passes out of the backfield.

The Saints' defensive improvement has also been a pleasant surprise under new coordinator Gregg Williams' aggressive approach. They lead the NFL with 13 takeaways in just four games. Veteran free safety Darren Sharper has been the most opportunistic, snagging five interceptions and returning two of them for touchdowns of 97 and 99 yards. High-priced defensive ends Will Smith and Charles Grant have been revitalized, giving the Saints a consistent pass rush that hasn't been there in recent years. And cornerbacks Jabari Greer, Tracy Porter and Randall Gay have been solid cover men, avoiding the big plays in the passing game that plagued New Orleans in years past.

Clearly, this is the game of the week in the NFL, and it's an important test for both NFC title contenders. The Saints need to prove they can trade punches with a physical team on both sides of the ball. And the Giants need to prove they can go on the road and keep up with a potent offensive team that can score points in bunches. New York is more at home in this big-game atmosphere, though, having played in plenty of them over the past three years. Take Giants.

Arizona at Seattle (-2.5)

Last week: Cardinals beat Texans 28-21; Seahawks beat Jaguars 41-0.

The Cardinals ended Seattle's four-year reign was NFC West champs last year, and one game currently separates the top three teams in the division. Arizona will hold a share of the division lead, and the Cardinals have won four of the past five games against Seattle. Three of those victories were decided by six points or fewer. The feistiness that's woven its way into this series can be seen in the penalties, too. Last year the teams combined for 21 penalties in their final meeting. In his last five games against Seattle, wide receiver Larry Fitzgerald has averaged seven catches for 105.2 yards and a touchdown. That was when Seattle had Marcus Trufant, who will miss at least one more game on the physically unable to perform list with a back injury. That means Seattle starting cornerbacks Ken Lucas and Josh Wilson are going to have their hands full with Fitzgerald, who will be looking for his first 100-yard receiving game this season.

This will be Matt Hasselbeck's second game back after suffering two broken ribs on Sept. 20. He returned to throw four touchdown passes against Jacksonville, and the Seahawks' offense really took off when they switched to a no-huddle offense in the second quarter, resulting in a hailstorm of 17 points in the final 8 minutes of the period. Can Seattle keep up the pace this week?

It's not a coincidence that Hasselbeck’s two best games have come against teams (Jaguars and Texans) who couldn't put pressure on him with their front four. The two teams that beat the Cardinals (49ers and Colts) didn't have to blitz to get to Warner. The Seahawks are a solid pass-rushing team, especially at home, so it's a big challenge for the Cardinals offensive line.

The Cardinals haven't had a sack in the past two games, so it's little wonder that the Colts Peyton Manning and the Texans Matt Schaub threw for big yards against them. The Cardinals lack an elite pass rusher and are going to have to figure a way to pressure Hasselbeck. That likely will mean blitzes from strong safety Adrian Wilson, who moves down to linebacker in passing situations.

The Cardinals haven't been able to run the ball well this season, but then again, they don't try very hard. A competent running game, however, would open up the play-action pass. Larry Fitzgerald's longest catch this season is 26 yards, and the Cardinals must find a way to get the ball to him deep. Anquan Boldin, as usual, will work underneath on bubble screens and shorter routes.

The Seahawks had a season-high five sacks last week even though they were missing Patrick Kerney, considered their top pass rusher before the season began. Lawrence Jackson has earned that designation now as he had his team-leading fourth sack of the season and is fast becoming a technically precise pass-rusher who has been Seattle's most consistent defensive end.

Seattle scored three touchdowns in the 10 quarters Hasselbeck missed with broken ribs and scored four in his first game back. Why? Hasselbeck not only made quick decisions, but he looked down the field by throwing touchdown passes of 34 and 44 yards in a 3-minute span of the second quarter. Backup quarterback Seneca Wallace settled for the safe checkdown too often while Hasselbeck looked deep.

Only the San Diego Chargers are averaging fewer rushing yards than Seattle, and last week's blowout of Jacksonville showed what the Seahawks defense can do when it makes an opponent one-dimensional. But this game will be decided by Arizona's defense, which has traditionally given the Seahawks a great deal of trouble even when Seattle had its full complement of offensive linemen. That's not the case now as Seattle was down to Kyle Williams, No. 4 left tackle, last week. Seattle's offensive line is all that's standing between the Cardinals and a share of the NFC West lead. Take Seahawks.

Chicago at Atlanta (-2.5)

Last week: Bears beat Lions two weeks ago 48-24; Falcons beat 49ers 45-10.

Running back Michael Turner and the Falcons' running game has gotten off to a slow start this season, but Turner showed signs of life against San Francisco. He flashed his burst last week with 33- and 16-yard gains against a rugged 49ers defense. Turner has rushed for more than 100 yards just once this season, in the second week against Carolina (28 carries for 105 yards). But he appears to be holding up under a heavy work load. The Falcons are 13-1 when he gets 20 or more carries.

In every game this season, teams have tried to take away the rushing attack and have second-year quarterback Matt Ryan beat them. The addition of tight end Tony Gonzalez has helped his development immensely. Ryan is coming off a 329-yard passing effort, which included touchdown passes of 90- and 31-yards to Roddy White. It was his career high in passing yardage.

Because of backup Adrian Peterson's knee sprain, the Bears plan to take just two running backs into their game against Atlanta. However, it's possible they could reconsider and promote Kahlil Bell from the practice squad later in the week. They'll rely on Matt Forte and third-down back Garrett Wolfe to continue the revival of their running game, which finally showed signs of life in the win over Detroit.

Before that game, the Bears didn't have a run longer than 15 yards, but Forte, who had been nursing a sore knee, popped 61-yard and 37-yarders. Now, he's even healthier after the bye.

Bears coaches are optimistic about the team opening bigger holes in the running game, in part, because TE Desmond Clark (rib) is back and healthy. Clark is the best blocker among the team's tight ends. Receiver Devin Hester practiced again Monday and reports no problems from the neck injury he suffered Oct. 4.

There's no doubt Roddy White is the receiver the Bears have to concern themselves with most. He had nine catches for 112 yards against them last year and is coming off an eight-catch, team-record 210-yard effort against the 49ers. This one calls for cornerback Charles Tillman covering White all over the field, just as he did with Detroit's Calvin Johnson last week in the second half. CB Zack Bowman is learning on the job and was burned by Johnson for 119 yards and five catches until Tillman covered White the second half and held him to three catches for 14 yards.

The Falcons' dazzling wide receiver is coming off one of the best efforts in franchise history. He caught eight passes for 210 yards (for a whopping 26.3 yards per catch) and two touchdowns against the 49ers last week. After holding out for nine days in training camp, he'd been off to a slow start averaging just 7.9 yards per catch. If he can find a happy median, that will be key to keeping the offense performing at a high level.

Whether it's by getting Matt Forte running again like he did last week in his first 100-yard game of the year, or with a controlled passing game, the Bears offense can help their own D by not turning the ball over. New England rang up 39:21 of possession time to the Falcons' 20:39 in the Falcons' only loss and did it with 168 rushing yards. The Bears need to do the same.

The past three seasons, the team coming off a bye week has won nearly 60 percent of the time. The Falcons were coming off the bye when they faced the 49ers last week. This week they'll catch the other end of the bye week schedule. Some of the Bears key players like receiver Devin Hester (strain neck), running back Matt Forte (sore knee) and tight end Desmond Clark (rib) needed the break to get healthy. The Falcons, who led the league with 114 first-quarter points last season, will need to start fast as Chicago tries to come out from its bye-week hibernation.

The Falcons beat the Bears in the finals seconds at the Georgia Dome last season. However, Jay Cutler, while playing with Denver, beat the Falcons with a touchdown pass to tight end Daniel Graham with 5:35 left in the game in a 24-20 victory. He has been solid in Chicago and was helped in the Detroit game with a 121-yard rushing effort from Forte. The bye week likely gave him more time to work out the kinks with his new receivers. The Falcons secondary will get tested by Cutler, who is completing 64.3 percent of his passes. He has eight touchdowns and five interceptions.

After a season-opening loss to Green Bay, the Bears have ripped off wins over Pittsburgh, Seattle and Detroit. But the Falcons have been near invincible in the Georgia Dome under second-year head coach Mike Smith, where they're 9-1. However, Cutler, while with Denver, has the one victory against Smith. The Falcons are trying to build some momentum going into their Nov. 2 NFC South showdown with the New Orleans Saints. Look for the Falcons to jump on the Bears early. Take Falcons

Denver at San Diego (-3.5)

Last week: Broncos beat Patriots 20-17; Chargers lost to Steelers two weeks ago 38-28.

The season is essentially on the line for the Chargers, while the Broncos can firmly take control of the AFC West.

The Chargers have struggled for portions of every game, including almost every minute of their most recent one, in Pittsburgh. But they have also, until that Pittsburgh debacle, shown improvement in each game. The Chargers were 5-1 in prime-time games last season. All of those games were either outright must-win games or games in which they desperately needed a victory because of their standing.

The Broncos can improve to 6-0, and no team since the current division alignment was established in 2002 has ever been 6-0 and failed to win its division.

Watch what happens when the Broncos defense faces the Chargers' explosive offense. San Diego is second in the NFL with 295.5 passing yards per game, while the Broncos are allowing 171.8 passing yards per game, fifth-fewest in the league. The Chargers' 11 pass plays of more than 25 yards (in four games) is tied for fourth-most in the league, while the Broncos have allowed just six such completions (in five games), tied for eighth-fewest. The Chargers' 25 points per game are 10th in the league, while the Broncos are allowing the fewest points per game (8.6) in the league.

The Broncos are one of five remaining undefeated teams and appear to be the real deal. Their defense is ranked second in the NFL, and their offense is fifth. The Giants are the only other team to have both units ranked in the top six.

Denver's 16 sacks are second in the league, and their six interceptions are tied for fifth. The last time the Broncos won their first six games was 1998, also the season of their last Super Bowl.

The Broncos have been masterful after halftime, outscoring opponents 59-7. However, they fell behind by 10 points in each of the past two games and had to rally for wins. That's easier at home. If the Broncos fall behind in a must-win game for the Chargers on the road, they could be in trouble. Conversely, if the Broncos start fast, a Chargers team in disarray could start doubting itself.

The Chargers are among the best in the NFL throwing the deep ball. One of Denver's strengths is not allowing the deep pass. The Broncos have allowed nine passes of 20 or more yards, and many of those came on long runs after the catch. Denver's veteran secondary is rarely out of position, and must avoid mental mistakes against San Diego.

When the Chargers were a revered team, it was because they stopped the run. That enabled them to get after the quarterback and make things happen -- interceptions, sacks and fumbles. It's no coincidence they are allowing 4.6 yards a carry and 151 rushing yards a game now and have six sacks, tied for fourth-fewest in the NFL.

Kyle Orton, despite his fine game-tying drive against New England, is mostly a game manager. The Chargers will do well to force the Broncos to throw to win. That will be easier said than done, as the Broncos are averaging 4.6 yards a carry and 139 rushing yards a game.

The Charger’s offense has not scored on its opening drive this season and have scored one touchdown over its past 25 opening drives. The Chargers have been outscored 28-10 in the first quarter this season and outgained 416 yards to 260.

They ran the ball eight times against Pittsburgh because they were down by so much, so fast. They have no desire to be passing as much as they are. They are on pace for 320 total rushes, which would be their fewest in a non-strike season. They must not fall behind, so they can be more balanced on offense and attack on defense.

On both sides of the ball, the Chargers are putting themselves in precarious positions because they are performing poorly on first down. They are 25th in first-down efficiency and 22nd in average to go on second down. Their defense, meanwhile, is the league's third-worst on first-down efficiency and their opponents have the fewest average yards to go on second down.

While the offense, thanks to its big-play capability has a respectable 43.1 percent third-down conversion rate, including 36.7 percent on third-and-long, the defense is last in the NFL getting off the field on third down. Opponents are converting 49 percent of their third downs and have, not coincidentally, faced a league-low 18 third-and-longs.

If the Chargers can't get their act together and win this one, it doesn't matter. Sure, San Diego could go on a tear and try to win a wild-card berth. But there are already a fair number of teams with leads on the Chargers. This game is about changing the entire feel of their season by maintaining their dominance in the AFC West. Take Chargers.

Kansas City at Washington (-6.5)

Last week: Chiefs lost to Cowboys 26-20; Redskins lost to Panthers 20-17.

The Redskins need to reshuffle their offensive line with T Chris Samuels out this week. They'll go from a struggling line to a bad one as the tackles now become Stephon Heyer (left) and Mike Williams (right). But Kansas City's offensive line is bad, as well, and the Redskins' defensive line is not. It stuffed Carolina's run and pressured quarterback Jake Delhomme last week, and it continues to create good scoring opportunities for the offense. Washington's defense will be the strongest unit on the field for either side Sunday but will it make a difference? No. KC wins its first game. Take Chiefs.

Houston at Cincinnati (-4.5)

Last week: Texans lost to Seahawks 41-0; Bengals beat Ravens 17-14.

These aren't the same old Bengals who were blown out at Houston, 35-6, last October. These "Cardiac Cats" are like maverick poker players riding four straight smokin'-hot hands. They're ready to be dealt another winner. Their confidence is high. They're playing bend-but-don't-break defense with a no-name unit. And their offense knows how to finish. Marvin Lewis' squad has learned how to win, knows how to win and, most importantly, expects to win. Facing a shaky Houston defense that yields a plethora of yards and points, Cincinnati should romp and stomp. Take Bengals.

Cleveland at Pittsburgh (-13.5)

Last week: Browns beat Bills 6-3; Steelers beat Lions 28-20.

The Steelers' offense is hitting on all cylinders; the line has been protecting Roethlisberger well and opening holes for RB Rashard Mendenhall. The defense has been struggling; it has allowed 55 points in the fourth quarter this season. Preventing points should not be a problem against the Browns, who have only three offensive TDs this season. Take Steelers.

St-Louis at Jacksonville (-9.5)

Last week: Rams lost to Vikings 38-10; Jaguars lost to Seahawks 41-0.

Jacksonville appears to be tease, given that it has produced dominating showings over hapless teams like Houston and Tennessee before being thoroughly demolished by Seattle. Although St. Louis is winless, the Jags need to produce a good showing at home to offset already-horrid ticket sales. But that won't be easy because with a team as young as the Jags, you can expect inconsistent performances.

St. Louis, meanwhile, has been outscored 146-34 and the outlook doesn't appear to be much brighter moving forward. The return of Marc Bulger is one positive, but defensive tackle Gary Gibson will miss the entire season due to a broken ankle and rookie OT Jason Smith (knee) and safety James Butler (knee) are expected to return to the lineup.

Despite all Jacksonville's warts on defense, the unit has demonstrated the ability to consistently snuff out the run. So if the Jags neutralize Steven Jackson, who averages about 90 yards rushing per game, their chances of winning increase exponentially. Look for the Jags to force turnovers and hold Jackson's numbers to a minimum. Take points and Rams.

 

Carolina at Tampa Bay (+3.5)

Last week: Panthers beat Redskins 20-17; Buccaneers lost to Eagles 33-14.

There's an awful lot on the line for the Panthers in this one. A team that had every reason to believe it could win its division and go deep into the playoffs is already on the brink of being eliminated from the postseason race.

The Panthers are the better team in this matchup and they have to play like it. If they do they can win handily and get back into the playoff race. If they don't they can all but kiss their season goodbye. In a must-win game, the Panthers will prevail, but only by a slight margin. Take Panthers.

Detroit at Green Bay (-13.5)

Last week: Lions lost to Steelers 28-20; Packers lost to Vikings two weeks ago 30-23.

This is a critical game for the Packers, and you can bet that after a bye they'll come out smoking. They might not be hitting on all cylinders right away, but they have too much offensive firepower for the young Lions and should be able to extend their string of victories over Detroit at Lambeau Field. If the Lions revert to the kind of play they exhibited at Chicago two weeks ago, it will be a blowout. Take Packers.

Philadelphia at Oakland (+13.5)

Last week: Eagles beat Buccaneers 33-14; Raiders lost to Giants 44-7.

The Eagles are well rested, more talented than the Raiders and quite capable of blowing out the Raiders in much the same manner as the Giants did last Sunday. The Raiders are reeling from three straight losses, with each one getting worse, mounting injuries and sagging confidence. The Eagles have too many playmakers on offense and defense, Donovan McNabb is playing at a high level and the Raiders aren’t playing well on a consistent basis in most areas. Look for the Eagles to build a huge lead, resort to the run as a means of running out the clock and forcing the Raiders into playing catch-up mode for most of the game. Take Eagles.

Buffalo at NY Jets (-9.5)

Last week: Bills lost to Browns 6-3; Jets lost to Dolphins 31-27.

The Jets are angry at themselves for letting one get away at Miami, and couldn't have asked the schedule-maker for a better opponent (other than perhaps Oakland or Tampa Bay, both of which will show up on the Jets' slate later this season). Buffalo is struggling on offense, and just as was the case before the teams' last meeting last December, questions about coach Dick Jauron's future are abounding. The Jets will get the lead early with Braylon Edwards making a play or two, thus dooming Trent Edwards to yet another day of playing catch-up, something the Bills' offense really isn't designed to do. Take Jets.

Tennessee at New England (-9.5)

Last week: Titans lost to Colts 31-9; Patriots lost to Broncos 20-17.

The Patriots return home after a frustrating loss, their second of this young season. The side shows and back stories associated with the Broncos and coach Josh McDaniels are over, and it's time to get back to work. Meanwhile, the Titans are coming off another frustrating loss in a string of them — a 22-point beat-down by the Colts — with a quarterback controversy still lingering. Tennessee is still talented, but if this mess is going to get cleaned up, it won't be against the Patriots geared up to bounce back. Take Patriots.

Open date: Dallas, Indianapolis, Miami & San Francisco.

 

 

 

 

 

 

By: Aengus Moorehead @ 17:16 | Category: Football  | Comments: 0 | Permalink

Week 5

October 10 2009 @ 15:58

Week 5

Greetings Lasses and Lads.

 Favourites were 9-5 against the spread in week 4 and of those five losses, the now 0-4 Titans, the slumping Bills and the struggling Cowboys all managed to drop their games outright. The Bengals and Redskins survived a scary outcome in their respective caper by mounting late charges to escape with wins against the lowly Browns and Buccaneers.

Interestingly, favourites (Giants, Indy, Houston, Chicago & 49ers) with spreads over a touchdown all covered easily and with room to spare.

Week 5 features five games with underdogs which will enjoy double-digit spreads with the Raiders leading the way with 15.5 points against the Giants. Let us hope that these powerhouse teams do not ease up on the pedal by allowing garbage scores late in the game.

My record against the spread:

Last week: 4-10

Season: 33-29

Cleveland at Buffalo (-5.5)

Last week: Browns lost to Bengals 23-20; Bills lost to Dolphins 38-10.

The Buffalo Bills and Cleveland Browns have played only four games, but their seasons are already on the verge of collapse. That's why their matchup on Sunday at Ralph Wilson Stadium could be dubbed “The Desperation Bowl”.

The Bills' high hopes going into this season seemed to be justified after a near-upset at New England and a decisive win over Tampa Bay. But they now appear to be in a freefall after back-to-back losses. Their embarrassingly lopsided 38-10 defeat last week at Miami has to go down as one of the worst games in the Dick Jauron head coaching era.

The pressure is really on Jauron to get this team turned around. It would help if he got more offense from marquee players like quarterback Trent Edwards and wide receivers Terrell Owens and Lee Evans to ease the burden on an injury-depleted defense.

If you think things are bad in Buffalo, it might be even worse in Cleveland, which has a 10-game losing streak dating to last season. Ironically, the last time the Browns won a game was in Buffalo last year.

The Browns' offense showed some improvement under quarterback Derek Anderson, who threw for 269 yards and a touchdown in an overtime loss to Cincinnati last Sunday. But their defense continues to struggle stopping people.

With upcoming road trips to Pittsburgh and Chicago sandwiched around a home game against Green Bay, a Sunday visit to Buffalo might be the Browns best chance to get a win for a while.

The Browns need to keep rolling the tape of last year's 29-27 win at Buffalo. After all, it is the last place they won a regular-season game before lapsing into their current 10-game losing streak. Part of the winning formula last year was riding the energy of a quarterback change.  Brady Quinn was in his second game after replacing Derek Anderson, coming off a strong first start, albeit in a loss to Denver. The tables are turned. Now Anderson is in his second start since replacing Quinn, and is coming off a strong outing in a loss to Cincinnati. The Browns are 4-2 all-time at Buffalo. The last time they got anywhere in the postseason, they reached the 1989 AFC title game by beating the Bills.

Anderson's performance against Cincinnati was adequate, not extraordinary. Yet, Coach Eric Mangini made quite a fuss over it, and rightfully so on two accounts. First, for all of its warts -- most notably three failed series in overtime -- it looked like a million bucks when compared to Brady Quinn's three starts. Second, Anderson needs as much positive reinforcement as he can get after losing the job to Quinn last year and in the 2009 preseason. Anderson has struggled in road games during his career because he has allowed noise and pressure to rattle him. He needs to use that experience toward being less panicky. That would translate into taking that extra split second before releasing the ball against a strong rush when a receiver is coming open. He missed such a throw to Mike Furrey that likely would have beaten the Bengals in OT last Sunday.

The Browns' defensive rhythm and attitude disintegrated into embarrassing performances at Denver and at Baltimore. The defensive line kept getting knocked backward in the latter game, and in both losses, missed tackles were epidemic. Prior to Sunday's home game against Cincinnati, Mangini challenged the team to forget about the scoreboard and focus on one thing: Smacking people in the mouth all day long. The response was so resounding that one Brown actually said, "I know it sounds funny, but ... it was as good as a loss can get." Tackling was crisp and the unit was far more cohesive, for a full game, than it had been. The trick is to carry over the mood to the road. Veteran nose tackle Shaun Rogers was dominant against Cincinnati and needs to set the tone.

Meanwhile, the Bills were just 1 of 11 on third downs last Sunday and are last in the NFL with a 23.4-percent conversion rate. Quarterback Trent Edwards needs more time from his struggling offensive line so he can get the ball to wide receivers Terrell Owens and Lee Evans. It would also help if Edwards involved slot receiver Josh Reed and his tight ends more.

 The Bills have allowed a whopping 472 yards rushing in the last two games. It is the first time since 1979 that they have given up more than 200 yards in back-to-back games. The Bills' front seven have to stay in their gaps and get off blocks. If not, Browns running back James Harrison will be the third straight player to rush for more than 100 yards against Buffalo.

 Maybe the best way for the Bills offense to snap out of its funk is playing on a short field. The Bills are near the bottom of the NFL in takeaways, but ball security hasn't been a strong suit of the Browns, whose 11 turnovers (seven interceptions) are the second-highest in the league behind Carolina's 12.  Anderson will take chances throwing downfield. The Bills' secondary has to take advantage by reading routes and making plays on the ball.

Considering how poorly the Bills and Browns have played, it wouldn't be a surprise to see a low-scoring, mistake-filled contest. But the sense of urgency on both sides should motivate them to perform at a higher level than either has exhibited.

Assuming the Bills' offense can stay on the field, it appears to have the advantage over the Browns' defense, which ranks last in the NFL in yards allowed. But can the Bills stop the Browns' running game? Harrison is coming off a 121-yard performance and had a big game against the Bills a year ago. The Browns also showed some encouraging signs on both sides of the ball in last week's overtime loss to Cincinnati. The Bills should be favored, but this one could go either way. Take points and Browns.

Washington at Carolina (-3.5)

Last week: Redskins beat Buccaneers 16-13; Panthers lost to Cowboys two weeks ago 21-7.

Does either side really trust their quarterback, or have a good reason to? Both Jake Delhomme and Jason Campbell have been under fire this year as their respective offenses have sputtered. Delhomme's turned it over nine times in three games, Campbell seven times in four.

Of course, Campbell hasn't gotten much help from a makeshift offensive line. Under ordinary circumstances, the Panthers would be salivating over that, but Carolina has generated little pass rush of its own this year. They have four sacks in three games, with just two of them coming from the defensive line.

This game will likely be settled by which side's big-play guys get on track, as Steve Smith's still productive (and always loves seeing DeAngelo Hall), while the Redskins should be able to get Chris Cooley and Santana Moss open against a troubled Panthers secondary.

The interior of Carolina's defense has been ravaged by injuries, so Washington must take advantage with a lot of isolation plays out of the I formation; it's when they run best. The Panthers allow 5.4 yards per carry, so the Redskins have a chance for a big game. It would also set up their play-action, where they're more dangerous.

 Washington’s defense finally abandoned the bland looks used in the first three games of the season, returning to the corner blitzes used in the past. It created a more aggressive mindset, and returned some energy. Considering the problems Carolina has had in the passing game, an aggressive game plan can result in turnovers.

Carolina averages 4.3 yards per carry; the Panthers' problem is the number of carries it gets per game (only 23.7). With DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart, the Panthers are capable of much more. Also, the Redskins have been disappointing vs. the run. Teams are opening enough cutback lanes to be effective, forcing DT Albert Haynesworth to move more.

The Panthers can't allow franchised DE Julius Peppers to sleepwalk anymore. He has a sack and barely any pressure in the first three games, and when you're paying a guy more than a million dollars per game, toleration goes out the window. The defense is built around getting pressure, and he's not creating any.

A year ago, when they were good, the Panthers threw the ball less than any team in the league. This year, they're ninth in the league in attempts. Psst, you have DeAngelo Williams, Jonathan Stewart and a top-shelf offensive line. Using them would help.

The Panthers have had monumental problems on special teams, and no area has been more ineffective than punt coverage. Opponents are averaging a ridiculous 27.3 yards per return. Antwaan Randle El is good enough to make the Panthers pay, unless they tighten up some things.

These teams are struggling nearly equally in terms of finding an identity this season. The Panthers, however, are more desperate. As bad as things are inside the beltway, this season could end this weekend if the Panthers fall to 0-4. Carolina's been incredibly loose this week, taking on an organizational stance of forgetting the first three weeks; but all that hinges on having some success early.

Playing at home's no real benefit, as the local fans have turned surly (in the wake of going nine months without any kind of win), and traditional Washington sympathies in the Charlotte area could make this feel like a road game unless Carolina turns things around quickly. The hunch is the Panthers will get back to their roots as a running team, and that could be enough. Take Panthers.

Atlanta at 49ers (-2.5)

Last week: Falcons lost to Patriots two weeks ago 26-10. 49ers beat Rams 35-0.

The Atlanta Falcons head west hoping to regain the swagger they had in 2008. Though they enter the contest 2-1, the Falcons feel there's plenty of room for improvement.

For one, Michael Turner, the NFL's No. 2 rusher last season, has averaged only 75 yards a game. Meanwhile, big-play receiver Roddy White is averaging just 7.9 yards a catch. The Falcons will try to get both on track against a stingy 49ers defense, especially at home.

If the Falcons win the game, they will have done something no other team has accomplished: Beat Shaun Hill at home. The 49ers quarterback has won all nine of the contests he's started at Candlestick Park. Hill has been particularly good at minimizing mistakes. He's thrown just one interception this season against five touchdowns and has managed the offense well.

If defenses continue to zero in on the 49ers' running game, look for offensive coordinator Jimmy Raye to put more faith in Hill to win the game. The 49ers have an opportunity to open up a wide gap in the NFC West before a bye week Oct. 18. They already are a game and a half up on the Cardinals, who host the Texans on Sunday. A win against Atlanta would put San Francisco in the driver's seat of the division.

The Falcons have not been able to unleash Michael Turner this season. They have to block the edges better and may need to go to more double tight end formations. Tony Gonzalez and Justin Peelle need to help out while blocking against eight- and nine-man fronts if the Falcons are going to pop some long runs.

 The Falcons’s defensive front is looking for help after first-round draft pick Peria Jerry went down with a season-ending knee injury. The 49ers are determined to run the ball and work off of play action with Shaun Hill. Rookie Glen Coffee has been steady while trying to fill in for Frank Gore. Defensive tackles Trey Lewis and Thomas Johnson will have to play stout in order to improve the interior of the defense.

The Falcons have not taken many shots down field this season. Look for Atlanta to try to air things out in order to back up the run support. Pro Bowl wide receiver Roddy White is averaging only 8 yards a catch. Over his career, he averages 15.4 yards a catch. Look for the Falcons to try to get White unhinged.

The 49ers' entire offensive philosophy is predicated on a dominant line. That offensive line, however, has been mediocre at best through four contests. The 49ers, especially the interior linemen, need to get a better push on first-down carries. The Falcons rank 25th against the run and will be tested.

The 49ers typically allow opponents to make short passes in the middle of the field because they feel confident their linebackers and safeties can clean up the play after only a minimal gain. That's a risky bet, however, against Falcons tight end Gonzalez who can still get down field quickly and is a master at catching the ball in traffic.

The 49ers' conservative offense relies on a strong return game to set it up with good field position. The 49ers have lagged in that area and the team even benched regular return man Allen Rossum Sunday against the Rams. San Francisco will be looking for a special teams spark against the Falcons.

Two similar teams square off against each other Sunday. Both are led by defensive-minded head coaches who have instilled toughness and discipline in their teams. Both enter the game with just one loss but plenty to improve upon, especially on offense.

The Falcons and 49ers expect to lean heavily on their running games, but so far, both have been sporadic. Whichever team gets the ground game rolling at Candlestick Park will be the winner. Look for a close, hard-fought game with neither team risking an early mistake. Mike Singletary is putting plenty of pressure on his offensive line this week. Look for that unit to respond. Take 49ers.

New England at Denver (+3.5)

Last week: Patriots beat Ravens 27-21. Broncos beat Cowboys 17-10.

Let’s leave the obvious storyline alone for a moment. This game should be a treat, without any of the hype surrounding the coaching matchup.

The Broncos defense is perhaps the biggest surprise of the 2009 season. Denver, which allowed 112 points in its final three games last season, has given up 26 points in its first four games. Criticism over the soft schedule to start the season has quieted some after a strong showing against Dallas. But Tom Brady and the Patriots will provide a much different challenge. Denver showed it can stand up to a power-running team last week, now it needs to change gears entirely and slow down a great quarterback and his spread passing attack.

The Patriots never could have assumed they'd come into this game with a worse record than the 4-0 Broncos. New England has lost a bit of its invincibility in the first four weeks this season after a couple of tight wins and a loss to the Jets. A convincing road win against the hot Broncos could give the Patriots their familiar swagger back.

And yes, the teacher vs. mentor storyline will be a huge part of this game. Josh McDaniels spent eight years with the Patriots under Bill Belichick and took many philosophies with him to Denver. He has nothing but respect for Belichick and there is no animosity between the men, but out-scheming the top coach in the NFL would be a huge validation for the wunderkind coach of the Broncos.

It's no secret that McDaniels, Denver's coach and the ex-Patriots coordinator, knows his opponent's schemes. In fact, he helped create them. McDaniels likely will translate that knowledge to his Broncos players this week, but it's important the Pats do what they can to disguise plays. They might use wristbands and grease boards like they did against the Jets to keep plays a secret.

Last week the Patriots were better against the Ravens, scoring three touchdowns in five trips inside the 20-yard line. That was impressive against the league's top red-zone team. Still, they are ranked 26th in the NFL with a 39-percent touchdown percentage. Execution must receive increased focus, and the commitment to the running game has to continue. When in doubt, Tom Brady should find Randy Moss.

There was little success last Sunday in running the ball, though the Pats tried. Staying on the field helps the defense stay fresh, but they need more in Denver. Can Laurence Maroney finally get on track without injured Fred Taylor? If the Pats can't run, a ball-control short passing game is the answer against the fifth-best rushing 'D'.

The Broncos haven't sent all-out blitzes at opponents too often this season, but their 3-4 scheme has generated pressure. Making Tom Brady uncomfortable in the pocket and unable to step into his throws is a huge factor in disrupting New England's passing attack. In Week 2 the Jets blitzed Brady on most plays, and held the Patriots to nine points.

Without LB Jerod Mayo, the Patriots linebackers are not an elite group. They are allowing 4.5 yards per attempt on the ground this season. Denver, which might not have running back Correll Buckhalter because of an ankle injury, needs to gets running backs Knowshon Moreno and LaMont Jordan to the second level of New England's defense. Establishing a run game would also help keep Brady off the field.

Denver's wide receivers were largely absent from last week's game, aside from Brandon Marshall's huge 51-yard game-winning touchdown. Aside from Marshall the Broncos receivers combined for only three catches and 24 yards against the Cowboys. The Patriots are a smart defensive team, and if the Broncos can't stretch the field, New England's job on defense becomes much easier.

The Broncos have played well this season, and the win over the Cowboys legitimized their start. Still, this is the Patriots they are facing. New England will know Josh McDaniels' tendencies well.

And the Patriots' superior offensive playmakers might make just enough big plays to tilt the game in their favor. The Broncos have come a long way this season, especially with a quantum leap on the defensive side of the ball, and will keep the game close because they won't beat themselves with bad mistakes. However, mentor Bill Belichick should have the upper hand in the end. Take Patriots.

Miami at NY Jets (+1.5)

Last week: Dolphins beat Bills 38-10; Jets lost to Saints 24-10.

The Jets never anticipated quarterback Matt Sanchez would coast through his rookie season without his share of hiccups. So Sanchez's first loss after four weeks wasn't the end of the world -- nor was the three interceptions and one lost fumble that helped induce it.

More importantly, the question is simple: Can Sanchez bounce back with authority? Just when the Dolphins' defense seems to be gaining momentum, New York's new wonder boy will look to prove his first three-game stint wasn't beginner's luck.

During his first NFL start in place of Chad Pennington, second-year quarterback Chad Henne looked like the serviceable starter Miami hoped it'd have in him. He wasn't an immediate star -- but he also didn't make any critical, game-changing mistakes as he led the Dolphins to their first victory.

Here's the problem: Henne was sacked six times. And while the blame for those sacks could be placed on a variety of different reasons, the fact is, Jets coach Rex Ryan might know how to apply pressure to a quarterback better than just about anyone. Unless the Dolphins can sure up their protection -- and unless Henne can learn how to get rid of the ball faster in the span of a week -- this matchup could provide Miami's new quarterback with his first welcome-to-the-NFL moment.

Strange enough, the Dolphins lead the NFL in rushing yards and third-down efficiency despite a 1-3 start. The reason is simple: Running back Ronnie Brown has been outstanding. Even when teams prepare solely for him, Brown powers his way toward success. So although Ryan is likely to bring plenty of heat on Henne, he'll need to be careful he doesn't ignore the potential that Miami will simply try to pound the ball from start to finish.

With a perfect counter attack in Ricky Williams, the Dolphins' running game also has the energy necessary to perform well for all four quarters. So look out for Brown to keep plugging away as one of the league's best backs.

The Jets cannot afford for Sanchez to have anything close to his four-turnover meltdown against the Saints. So they must run the ball more effectively than they have. Although they averaged 4.9 yards per carry against New Orleans, most of it was on gimmick plays and scrambles by Sanchez. They must start running more effectively between the tackles.

The Jets' average drive start against New Orleans was their own 26-yard line, and that includes a turnover that gave them the ball at the Saints' 34. They either must create turnovers on defense or get good kick and punt returns from Leon Washington and Jim Leonhard.

Ryan used blitzes last season to hold down Miami's Wildcat offense in two victories, including one in a wild-card playoff game. Miami offensive coordinator Dan Henning has had an entire offseason to make the proper adjustments. If the Jets control the Wildcat, they will be able to send more pressure at Henne.

Although the Dolphins learned against the Colts that you can dominate time of possession and still lose the game, Miami seems to be doing a few things better since then: It isn't allowing as many big plays, and it isn't turning over the ball as much. As a result, the long, grinding drives that wear down the clock are going to be more beneficial. And since Sanchez isn't exactly Peyton Manning, the Jets aren't as likely to have as much success as Manning did with so little time spent on offense.

With linebacker Joey Porter out last week with a hamstring injury, the Dolphins were missing their most important presence in the pass-rushing game. Turns out, an unlikely player stepped up huge in his place. Cameron Wake, who signed with Miami after dominating the CFL during the past two years, piled up three sacks and a forced fumble against the Bills.

The better news? Even when Porter returns, coach Tony Sparano said Wake's role won't diminish because he was being used in situations when Porter wouldn't be on the field anyway. As a result, the Dolphins must make sure they're giving Wake plenty of chances to rush the passer, which could wear down the offense, thus allowing Porter to be even more effective than usual.

The Dolphins have asked everything possible of running backs Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams, and both continue to deliver. To be as effective as the running game has been, the Dolphins must keep defenses honest by opening up the passing game. In the most recent win, the staff tried a few personnel groupings, many without Ted Ginn Jr. That's just fine, if one of those other players perhaps rookie Brian Hartline can provide a deep threat so Greg Camarillo and Davone Bess can work the intermediary routes.

It should be interesting to see how two young quarterbacks each handle a rivalry that historically goes down to the wire quite often. Especially on a national stage, this game could be decided by which quarterback -- Sanchez or Henne -- can keep his poise about him. Neither player has all that many weapons in the passing game to work with, and both defensive fronts have done a nice job recently of applying pressure to opposing teams.

The good news for the Dolphins? Henne has serious help lining up behind him. Although it will be important for each quarterback to be solid, the weapon that will matter most is Brown. If the Jets stop him, they'll win the game. If they don't, they won't. Simple as that. Take Jets.

Pittsburgh at Detroit (+10.5)

Last week: Steelers beat Chargers 38-28; Lions lost to Bears 48-24.

While both teams are struggling to put together a full 60-minute effort with consistency, the Steelers have the speed and power on defense and the weapons on offense to handle the Lions with relative ease.

The Lions are still a year away from being able to compete on the same level with the league's elite teams. The Lions are going to have major problems with pass protection on offense and they don't have the secondary to keep up with receivers Hines Ward and Santonio Holmes. There aren't likely to be any tense second-half moments in this one. Take Steelers.

Dallas at Kansas City (+8.5)

Last week: Cowboys lost to Broncos 17-10; Chiefs lost to Giants 27-16.

The Cowboys, talented but struggling, appear to be a step down in competition for the Chiefs. But Kansas City is in no position to take advantage.

The Chiefs have nothing that works well for them consistently, so taking advantage of an opponent's weakness is difficult for them. They have made no progress in any particular area since the start of the season, so there's no reason to believe they can beat the skilled, if flawed, Cowboys. Take Cowboys.

Oakland at NY Giants (-15.5)

Last week: Raiders lost to Texans 29-6; Giants beat Chiefs 27-16.

Figure the Giants will try to take the heat off Manning, who is battling plantar fasciitis in his right foot. That means a heavy dose of running the ball with Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw against an Oakland defense that allows 146.3 rushing yards per game.

That probably will be enough, as the Giants' defense shut out the Buccaneers two weeks ago and held the Chiefs to three points through three quarters last week in building a 27-3 lead. A West Coast team making the trek east and playing at 1 p.m. ET usually has difficulty and there's no reason to believe the Raiders won't fall in line and struggle. Take Giants.

Cincinnati at Baltimore (-8.5)

Last week: Bengals beat Browns 23-20; Ravens lost to Patriots 27-21.

The Bengals have enough on offense to keep this game competitive as long as Carson Palmer is accurate. For the first time in three seasons, he looks like he did before suffering the knee injury in the playoffs against Pittsburgh.

The Ravens will have a hard time matching up against the Bengals' receivers, especially Chris Henry on third downs. But the Bengals' defense can't measure up against the Ravens' power-running game, and Cincinnati's special teams will allow two major returns that will swing the game in Baltimore's favor. Take Ravens.

Tampa Bay at Philadelphia (-13.5)

Last week: Buccaneers lost to Redskins 16-13; Eagles beat Chiefs two weeks ago 34-14.

By getting back their offensive nucleus -- McNabb, Westbrook and Kevin Curtis -- the Eagles are in position to have this game decided by halftime. Their biggest challenge will be getting amped to play a clearly inferior opponent and game planning for Tampa quarterback Josh Johnson, who has limited game tape. But there's no reason this game should be decided by less than 10 points. Take Eagles.

Minnesota at St-Louis (+10.5)

Last week: Vikings beat Packers 30-23; Rams lost to 49ers 35-0.

The Rams lost 35-0 last week to the 49ers, who are 28th in total offense. So if Minnesota is on its game, women, children and senior citizens may want to avert their eyes.

The Rams' best hope is that the Vikings come in fat and sassy from their big Monday Night win over Green Bay, and completely take the Rams lightly. Somehow lightning must strike for St. Louis in the form of a quick score or two -- to get the crowd into it. Otherwise, this could be a colossal mismatch. Take Vikings.

Houston at Arizona (-5.5)

Last week: Texans beat Raiders 29-6; Cardinals lost to Colts two weeks ago 31-10.

The Cardinals have played one solid game since the middle of the preseason. At times, they've looked downright "bush league," in the words of Coach Ken Whisenhunt. Having already lost two home games, and with several tough road games looming, this is a critical stretch of the schedule for the Cardinals.

They need to win the games they are supposed to win. Still, while another failure at home would be damaging, it wouldn't be deadly. The NFC West looks weak again, so it's way too early to write any team off. Take Cardinals.

Jacksonville at Seattle (+2.5)

Last week: Jaguars beat Titans 37-17; Seahawks lost to Colts 34-17.

Seattle's loss in Indianapolis last week shows how vulnerable the Seahawks offense is to an opponent that can consistently pressure the passer. Jacksonville, however, is dead last in the league with three sacks.

After the pressure Seattle faced from Chicago in Week 3 and the Colts last week, the Seahawks are going to find a bit of a reprieve, allowing the quarterback time to find receivers down the field. T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Nate Burleson and rookie Deon Butler were supposed to provide big-play potential, but through four games the Seahawks two longest receptions are a screen pass to running back Julius Jones and a 38-yard pass to tight end John Carlson. That will change Sunday. Take Seahawks.

Indianapolis at Tennessee (+3.5)

Last week: Colts beat Seahawks 34-17; Titans lost to Jaguars 37-17.

The Colts have breezed past their last two opponents, winning over Arizona and Seattle by a combined score of 65-27. At first glance, they should have no trouble against a Titans team that's reeling and ranked next-to-last in the NFL in pass defense.

 But the Titans have risen up and played well against the Colts in the past, and are due to put it all together. Remember, this is a team that finished 13-3 last season. The Titans will make it interesting, but their track record this season says they'll find a way to let it slip away again to a team that knows how to win. Take Colts.

Open Date: Chicago, Green Bay, New Orleans & San Diego.

By: Aengus Moorehead @ 15:58 | Category: Football  | Comments: 0 | Permalink

Week #4

October 3 2009 @ 18:35

Week 4

Favorites stepped up in Week 3, posting an 11-5 record against the point spread, while home teams were 9-7. Home underdogs, often a popular choice, were only 2-5.

Interestingly, of the five favorites that lost against the spread, four of them also lost the game straight-up - the Texans, Redskins, Steelers and Cardinals. The Vikings, who were seven-point favorites, beat the 49ers 27-24, failing to cover.

My record against the spread:

Last week: 11-5.

Season: 29-19.

 

Detroit at Chicago (-9.5)

Last week: Lions beat Redskins 19-14; Bears beat Seahawks 25-19.

With one losing streak smashed, the Detroit Lions have a chance to end another losing streak, and this time Detroit area fans will get to see it because road games aren't blacked out on TV. The Lions have lost 13 straight road games. Traditionally a bad road team even when they weren't losing 19 straight games overall, the Lions last won a road contest Oct. 28, 2007 at Soldier Field against the Bears, 16-7. They have had some success against Lovie Smith's Bears with a 4-6 record against them.

Can Bear QB Jay Cutler do it again? It's been one heart-stopping fourth quarter after another for the Bears with their new quarterback. Cutler has engineered fourth-quarter comebacks in all three games and won the last two with late scores. In the opener at Green Bay, he threw four interceptions but led a 69-yard drive to the go-ahead fourth-quarter field goal.

 Bears defensive line/assistant head coach Rod Marinelli was the coach of the Lions' 0-16 team and perhaps can provide some insight for the Bears into Detroit's players -- although much of the roster has since turned over. Marinelli has been given a great deal of credit by Bears defensive linemen for their more productive start to this season.

The Lions must establish the running game on the road to keep the heat off rookie QB Matthew Stafford, so it likely will be a battle of backup RBs (Maurice Morris and Jerome Felton) going against Chicago's backup LBs (Nick Roach and Jamar Williams). The Lions need to win this battle to slow down the Bears' pass rush.

It's not a coincidence that Stafford had five interceptions in his two losses this year but didn't turn the ball over once in Detroit's win. Stafford is doing a better job of getting rid of the ball when the play is dead, but he's still prone to taking some unnecessary risks -- especially if the Lions fall behind and Stafford believes he has to make some big plays.

The Lions are going to do a fairly good job of handling the run between the tackles, but they're having problems with keeping containment on the edge. While RB Matt Forte isn't a burner, he's got enough ability to bounce a play when he gets bottled up and do some damage. If the Lions don't get more physical on the edge, that's where the Bears are going to hit them.

The Redskins couldn't stop RB Kevin Smith and he led the Lions to 116 rushing yards in the first half alone. The importance was that it gave Stafford time to run play-action passes effectively in the second half and Detroit wound up converting 10-of-18 third downs last week. When the Saints held Smith to 20 rushing yards in the opener they were then able to get heat on Stafford and rattle the rookie QB into three interceptions, a model the Bears must follow.

The Bears haven't had much of a running game to speak of at the outset of any of their three games and have wound up behind while spinning their wheels, until Cutler has rallied them. While it's critical to finally get Forte and the ground game moving for the first time, they may have to resort to setting up the run with the pass -- after all, their QB is now their greatest weapon.

Winning on the road for a rookie quarterback against a respectable adversary is difficult in the NFL, and the Bears will be playing a lot of cover-2 in their secondary hoping to pounce on Stafford's mistakes. However, Take points and Lions.

Baltimore at New England (-1.5)

Last week: Ravens beat Browns 34-3; Patriots beat Falcons 26-10.

The Ravens are one of only seven undefeated teams. They've accomplished that in resounding fashion, with a bigger scoring margin (50 points) than all teams but the Saints. The trademark tenacious 'D' has been complemented by an offense that is versatile and tough. But two of the wins have come against the winless Browns and Chiefs. Sunday will be telling.

It's almost as if the Patriots have already faced the Ravens when Rex Ryan and his nearly identical Jets defense confused the New England offense in Week 2. Replace Bart Scott and Kerry Rhodes with Ray Lewis and Ed Reed, and little else changes. Against New York, quarterback Tom Brady appeared frazzled. He was not sacked, but Ryan's team hurried him 15 times. Have the Pats figured it out?

New England's defense may be sixth in the NFL by allowing 262.3 yards per game and eighth with 16.7 points allowed. It's all happened without an injured Jerod Mayo (knee) and former stalwarts like Tedy Bruschi and Richard Seymour. Also, in the second-half shutout of the Falcons, injured nose tackle Vince Wilfork didn't play. Can Bill Belichick continue to out-scheme his opponents?

The Ravens must play physical against WR Randy Moss and that is not a good matchup for the Ravens because of the quality of the Patriots' receivers, as well as the deep threat that Moss represents. To offset Moss, the Ravens have to be physical with him at the line of scrimmage to get him off his game. The Ravens really don't have that type of physical cornerback, but they have to change tactics against Moss.

Against the Falcons, while battling serious back pain, Randy Moss had 10 catches for 116 yards. He did so without Wes Welker and with Joey Galloway struggling once again. That won't be enough this week. Getting Welker back on the field is what the Pats need, but Galloway must regain the form that made him a sound player for years. If Welker is not healthy and Galloway cannot get the job done, it's on rookie Julien Edelman.

Baltimore should just load up in the I-formation, and stick it down New England's throat. The Pats have some speed, but they are more finesse than power. If the Ravens pound the ball, it will open up the play-action passing game, the team's bread-and-butter. Also, if the Ravens control the tempo, they'll keep Brady off the field.

The Ravens must Blitz Tom Brady. This is what Rex Ryan did two weeks ago, and the Ravens have most of the same blitz practices. While no quarterback likes to be hit, Brady was bothered by the Jets because they forced him to move more than he's used to. The Ravens have the personnel to pull it off, so look for linebackers Ray Lewis, Jameel McLain and Jarret Johnson to bring constant pressure.

New England’s RB Fred Taylor reemerged last Sunday, running for 105 yards and doing it in his classic no-frills fashion. The Patriots had 39 rushing attempts, allowing Brady the comfort to throw the ball 42 times without being sacked. In fact, he was rarely hurried against the Falcons. A commitment to the run re-establishes some toughness on the offensive line. It may also force Ed Reed to respect the run, handicapping him in his pass coverage.

Lewis may be getting on in years, but the perennial Pro Bowl linebacker hasn't lost much. Patriot coaches see a similar player as they did in 2007. He has 21 tackles this season, including a much-celebrated, fourth-down stop of Darren Sproles in the win over San Diego in Week 2. If New England center Dan Koppen and his colleagues can slow Lewis down, the Patriots should find more running room. If not, some heads may be ringing by 4:00 p.m. Sunday.

Even without Brady on his A-game, and even with just one touchdown in five trips inside the 20-yard line, the Patriots drummed the Falcons by 16 points. What if Brady and the red-zone offense begin to click?

The Patriots have faced tough teams in consecutive weeks (Jets and Falcons), but the Ravens are the most well-rounded of New England's opponents so far this season. Ray Rice and Willis McGahee have combined to be one of the top running back duos in the league. Will they do what Michael Turner could not and expose the Belichick's 'D'? Will Raven QB Joe Flacco take advantage of the attention they receive? Maybe, and even with the improvement Brady is slowly making, it might be still enough. Take Ravens.

NY Jets at New Orleans (-6.5)

Last week: Jets beat Titans 24-17; Saints beat Bills 27-7.

It's not hard to hype a matchup between two unbeaten teams that have been on a serious roll. The Saints have turned heads with a prolific offense led by quarterback Drew Brees ; the Jets have become instant contenders with new coach Rex Ryan's feisty defense and an impressive start by rookie quarterback Mark Sanchez . Both teams are a bit of a surprise after missing the playoffs last year; the winner of this game will make a serious statement about its legitimacy.

The offense-vs.-defense battles are tantalizing. Saints coach Sean Payton is one of the NFL's most innovative minds, and Ryan is one of the game's most disruptive defensive strategists. Brees is playing the position as well as anyone, but the Jets have one of the league's best shutdown cornerbacks in Darelle Revis, as well as an All-Pro safety in Kerry Rhodes. The Saints have run the ball surprisingly well, ranking second in the NFL through three weeks, but the Jets have terrific run-stoppers in tackle Kris Jenkins and LB Bart Scott and David Harris.

Sanchez is the first rookie quarterback since the 1970 AFL-NFL merger to lead his team to a 3-0 start, but he hasn't faced much adversity yet. He hasn't been asked to bring his team back from a deficit or been forced to move the team quickly downfield through the air. That could change this week if he finds himself needing to match points with the Saints' offense. He also has struggled with fumbles, but none of them have come back to bite him. It will be curious to see how Sanchez reacts if he finds himself in a tight spot on the road.

The Jets need to sustain drives to take time off the clock and limit the amount of possessions for Drew Brees & Co. To do that, the Jets need to run the ball better. While it's true that teams have sometimes stacked the box and dared  Sanchez to beat them, it's also true the Jets' highly touted line needs to provide a better push.

The Jets cannot afford any quick touchdowns by Brees, who has nine TD passes despite not throwing for one last week. The Jets may try to lay back in coverage and force New Orleans to dink and dunk or to run the ball. The Jets love to blitz, but Brees knows when to step up in the pocket and his ability to throw quickly usually foils blitzes.

The Saints have scored touchdowns on their opening drive in every game this season, and they've never trailed. That has made life a lot easier for their defense and much more difficult for opposing offenses. The best way the Saints can put pressure on Sanchez is to force him to play catch-up and push for touchdowns. Brees had a surprisingly quiet day at Buffalo, throwing for just 172 yards and no touchdowns in Week 3, but the Saints were just taking what the defense gave them. He has plenty of dangerous weapons at his disposal, starting with wide receiver Marques Colston, TE Jeremy Shockey and RB Reggie Bush.

The Saints' rushing attack has been a pleasant surprise. Pierre Thomas ran for 126 yards in the second half at Buffalo. The Bills practically dared the Saints to run the ball in that game, sitting back in coverage to limit the Saints' high-powered passing attack. So New Orleans made them pay with the run. If the Saints are able to show that kind of balance consistently, teams will have an extremely difficult time defending them.

Both teams have something to prove if they want to be taken seriously as contenders. The Saints need to prove they can keep scoring points against the best defense they've faced this season. The Jets need to show they can match points with the best offense they've faced this year. The home crowd and the indoor track should give the Saints' high-powered offense an edge against the Jets' disruptive defense but it won’t be simple for the Saints in the “big easy”. Take points and Jets.

San Diego at Pittsburgh (-6.5)

Last week: Chargers beat Dolphins 23-13; Steelers lost to Bengals 23-20.

This is a rematch of last year's divisional playoff game won by the Steelers 35-24, a game that turned on a punt return for touchdown by Santonio Holmes . The Steelers also won a regular-season game against the Chargers at Heinz Field 11-10, the only game in NFL history to end in such a score.

The Chargers have never won a regular-season game in Pittsburgh, though they beat the Steelers twice in playoff games there (1982, 1994). The game matches two of the top three quarterbacks from the 2004 draft —  Ben Roethlisberger the youngest QB to win two Super Bowls; and Philip Rivers, who has led the Chargers to three consecutive playoff appearances and is the team's all-time leader in career passer rating (92.4).

Rivers is off to a sizzling start, passing for 739 of his 991 yards in his past two games. And that will put a lot of stress on a Steeler defense that is not playing near its 2008 level when the unit was No. 1 in the NFL. The Steelers have four sacks and two turnovers in three games and have allowed a combined 24 points in the fourth quarter in the past two games, both losses.

The Chargers have averaged three yards rushing in the two games RB LaDainian Tomlinson has missed, and it's not all the offensive line’s blemish. Tomlinson's vision and backfield ability to escape (presumably, still) are superior to those of Darren Sproles and Michael Bennett. Thankfully for the Chargers, Tomlinson is expected to return this Sunday. An improved running game (the Chargers' 199 rushing yards is better only than Arizona's 182) will keep the Steelers honest in their attempts to get after Rivers, and it should help the Chargers in the red zone.

Speaking of which, the Charger offense has one touchdown in its past 11 trips inside the red zone. It's not just the lack of a running game. Rivers has made poor throws, and protection has not been able to keep up with defenses' persistent blitzing. Nate Kaeding field goals will likely not be enough to win in Pittsburgh, where last season the Chargers were 1-for-3 in the red zone.

The defense allowed 304 yards in the first quarter and 648 over the other nine quarters this season. It is almost like clockwork.Considering the offense's trouble scoring touchdowns, one of these times an opponent is going to put up a big first quarter and it's going to be difficult for the Chargers to come back.

Even with Troy Polamalu, the Steelers consider Chargers TE Antonio Gates to be a difficult matchup. Without him, it's even more of a problem for their secondary. The obvious choice to cover Gates will be ILB Lawrence Timmons, their most athletic and quickest linebacker. But he is coming back from a high ankle sprain that caused him to miss several games and does not have his usual explosiveness.

Rivers had three touchdowns and three interceptions in two games at Heinz Field last season, but he was never able to effectively get the ball to his tall wide receivers, Malcolm Floyd and Vincent Jackson. He was forced into a lot of check-down throws because of the pressure from OLBs LaMarr Woodley and James Harrison, who have combined for one sack this season.

The Steelers had a lot of success running Willie Parker in the first half against the Cincinnati Bengals, something they were able to do in the playoff victory against the Chargers, as well. Parker had 146 yards rushing and two TDs in that game and the Steelers will try to take advantage of the middle of the Chargers defense, which is without NT Jamal Williams.

The Chargers have lost all 12 regular-season games they've played in Pittsburgh and lost twice to the Steelers last season. But the Steelers are coming off road losses to the Bears and Bengals, games in which they have shown more than just flashes of dominance on offense and defense.

They had success pressuring and sacking Rivers and forcing him into bad throws last season, something they haven't been able to do this season. The collapse of the defense in the fourth quarter of each of the past two games has created a sense of urgency among the unit. That desperation will transform into a return of the defense that led the NFL in 2008. Yet, the Chargers will keep it close. Take Chargers.

Green Bay at Minnesota (-3.5)

Last week: Packers beat Rams 36-17; Vikings beat 49ers 27-24.

Brett Favre finally gets his chance to stick it to the Packers. Favre has said he has no personal agenda against the team, specifically front office boss Ted Thompson, but you can bet that he would love to win this game.

Favre's messy divorce from the Packers in the summer of 2008 is well documented. But now he has a chance to put the Vikings in good position to win the NFC North. A win on Monday night would give the Vikings a two-game lead over Green Bay early in the season.

Winning the division and advancing deep into the playoffs should mean more to Favre than any possible grudges against his former team.

The Packers have a chance to build momentum after an uneven start to the season. After a tremendous exhibition season, they opened with a tough win against Chicago then lost to Cincinnati. They rebounded by defeating St. Louis, but the game was more closely contested than the final score indicated.

Packer QB Aaron Rodgers will go against the man he replaced for the first time in his career, and this will be a chance for him to show that the Packer brass made the right decision by trading Favre last year. Rodgers posted impressive statistics last season, but he couldn't deliver the Packers to victory late in games the way his predecessor did so often.

Favre did it again Sunday. His 32-yard touchdown strike to Greg Lewis lifted the Vikings to a remarkable 27-24 comeback victory.

For the Packers It's going to be hard to control RB Adrian Peterson from dominating the game, but if he does it with four- or five-yard runs, it will make the Vikings work harder for their points. Assuming the offense puts points on the board, the defense can't give it back in just a play or two. Momentum will be a huge factor in this game and keeping Peterson from busting a long one will go a long way in staying in the game. Defensive coordinator Dom Capers is going to have to come up with timely run blitzes to keep Peterson off balance.

 If the offensive line can protect him, Rodgers must be aggressive and challenge the Vikings' safeties and corners. Ideally, the offense would like to go often with three or four wide receivers so it can exploit matchups against the safeties and nickel defenders. But with the Vikings' pass rush, that could be difficult. So Rodgers is going to have take some chances and get the ball to Donald Driver and Greg Jennings and trust they'll break up the pass if they're covered. He has to take some chances for this offense to succeed.

The Vikings have a history of allowing big plays on special teams and it's going to be critical for returner Will Blackmon to have a big game. Field position could be the determining factor in whether the team wins this game. A big return not only will silence the crowd, but it will remove the pressure of being backed up in its own end. If it can win the field-position battle overall, the odds of bad plays occurring goes down because there isn't so much pressure to drive 80 yards for a score. Blackmon will be a key figure in the game.

The Vikings' vaunted defensive line needs to take advantage of its matchup with a Packers' offensive line that has issues. Packers LT Chad Clifton has had some success against Vikings DE Jared Allen in the past. Clifton's sprained right ankle is improving but he's not guaranteed to play. Without Clifton, the Packers had to shift left guard Daryn Colledge to replace him, and his performance there has been mixed. Clifton gave up a sack for a safety in last year's matchup with Allen at the Metrodome.

 Vikings Pro Bowl CB Antoine Winfield said he believes Rodgers throws the best deep ball in the NFL. It's up to the Vikings to make sure Rodgers doesn't hurt them with big plays. He has the options to do it. Jennings' longest reception this season is 53 yards, and Driver's longest is 46 yards. The Vikings did a good job protecting against the deep ball when they played Detroit's Calvin Johnson, the most dangerous receiver they've faced this year so far.

The Vikings have to continue to feed the ball to Peterson even though Green Bay's biggest concern will be stopping him. Against St. Louis, the Packers used formations with five linebackers on the field at once in an attempt to slow down Rams RB Steven Jackson. It wouldn't be surprising if they try to the same tactic against the Vikings. Peterson needs opportunities to break big runs, and that means plenty of carries.

If Favre can overcome all of the emotions tied into facing his former team, he should be just fine. It could be a weird game for him, but he has to stay focused on managing the game and avoiding turnovers. He's thrown just one interception so far this season with five touchdowns and has completed 64.9 percent of his passes. Efficient play is what the Vikings need from him, but the Packers will make sure that Favre stumbles. Take Packers.

Seattle at Indianapolis (-8.5)

Last week: Seahawks lost to Bears 25-19; Colts beat Cardinals 31-10.

Peyton Manning has had impressive success against NFC opposition, in part because they see him and his offense so infrequently. Since 2002, Manning is 22-7 against the NFC in the regular season. He has a 108.4 rating with 71 touchdowns and 21 interceptions.

That trend should continue against the Seahawks even though the Colts probably will be without DE Dwight Freeney, S Bob Sanders, LB Gary Brackett and WR Anthony Gonzalez. Take Colts.

Oakland at Houston (-9.5)

Last week: Raiders lost to Broncos 23-3; Texans lost to Jaguars 31-24.

The Texans are a better team than the Raiders. They're playing at Reliant Stadium, where they have already lost as many games as each of the last two seasons. It's hard to imagine them playing bad enough to let the Raiders make them 0-3 at home.

At some point, the defense must improve, and with the Raiders coming off consecutive sub-par performances, this would seem the time to do it. The Raiders proved they could beat the Texans in December when JaMarcus Russell had one of his best games but not in October. Take Texans.

Tennessee at Jacksonville (+2.5)

Last week: Titans lost to Jets 24-17; Jaguars beat Texans 31-24.

Winless, Tennessee feels backed into a corner. Jacksonville enters the contest with the same feeling given its record, but wants to build on its first road win over Houston since 2005. The Jags also want to produce a good showing in front of the home crowd, which might spark floundering ticket sales.

Tennessee typically outcoaches the Jaguars, who in the past have made game-altering mistakes in the heat of hotly-contested outings against the Titans. It will occur again. Take Titans.

Cincinnati at Cleveland (+5.5)

Last week: Bengals beat Steelers 23-20; Browns lost to Ravens 34-3.

If the Bengals are for real they should absolutely crush Cleveland, even though the Browns are playing at home. I don't think there will be any type of emotional let-down for Cincinnati after their 23-20 win over Pittsburgh. It is more of a confidence booster than anything else.

History is also on the side of the Bengals. Marvin Lewis has won 8 of 12 against Cleveland, and also 4 of 6 in Cleveland - with two wins by shutout. Cleveland has not scored a rushing TD since Week 11 of 2008. The Bengals could easily be 3-0 if not for the oddball way they lost the Denver game in Week 1. Take Bengals.

NY Giants at Kansas City (+8.5)

Last week: Giants beat Buccaneers 24-0; Chiefs lost to Eagles 34-14.

As much as the Chiefs would like to believe they can pull the upset, the reality is that the Giants are far too strong a team to allow that. The Chiefs have nothing working for them on either side of the ball.

 While they have improved on special teams, they aren't strong enough there to tip the balance. Making a few big plays in any of the three phases would help the Chiefs stay close but whatever Kansas City does, it's only a matter of time before the Giants exert their will. Take Giants.

Tampa Bay at Washington (-6.5)

Last week: Buccaneers lost to Giants 24-0; Redskins lost to Lions 19-14.

It's hard to imagine the Redskins falling this far so fast, but they're now 3-8 in Jim Zorn's last 11 games. And they can't score touchdowns, an obvious drawback. They responded to the struggle vs. St. Louis by playing without much urgency in Detroit. That's an indictment on them. But the Bucs might just be worse than either St. Louis or Detroit and they'll start a young quarterback on the road.

They lack any sort of offensive firepower. The Bucs' defense is still transitioning from the Cover 2 it played for years. That takes time. The Redskins' offensive struggles will keep this game close. Take Buccaneers.

Buffalo at Miami (+1.5)

Last week: Bills lost to Saints 27-7; Dolphins lost to Chargers 23-13.

All eyes will be on QB Chad Henne on Sunday as he attempts to show the NFL that he's capable of becoming a worthy starter for years to come. But this task isn't going to be easy.

If the chip on Terrell Owens' shoulder from last week's bad game causes him to succeed, the Dolphins will need to put up plenty of points to match the Bills. Watch for Henne to look deep often. The Dolphins know they need bigger chunks of yardage to succeed. And at 0-3, it's time to take some gambles but it won’t pay off for the Dolphins. Take Bills.

St-Louis at 49ers (-9.5)

Last week: Rams lost to Packers 36-17; 49ers lost to Vikings 27-24.

It wasn't too long ago that Rams-49ers games featured exciting plays, high scores and lots of downfield passing. This time? Look for a low-scoring game in which the teams hammer away at each other with their running games.

Coach Mike Singletary and the 49ers are farther along as far as remaking themselves into a tough-nosed, defense-oriented team. But they will be without RB Frank Gore this week and are dealing with a potentially demoralizing loss against Minnesota.

Singletary was in a similar situation last season after a Monday night loss to Arizona, and his team responded by whipping the Rams at home 35-16. Look for another 49ers' win, but it will be a lot tighter. Take Rams.

Dallas at Denver (+2.5)

Last week: Dallas beat Panthers 21-7; Broncos beat Raiders 23-3.

Sunday's game should be a tough, physical encounter. The Cowboys are able to run the ball no matter who is taking the handoffs. The Broncos built a tougher team over the offseason, and like the Cowboys are strong on the offensive line.

 The Broncos don't care about people dismissing their good start because of an unimpressive schedule, but the fact is they haven't played a team as good as Dallas. Denver looks improved, especially on defense, but the Cowboys have plenty of playmakers and should do just enough to win. Take Cowboys.

Open date:  Arizona, Atlanta, Carolina & Philadelphia.

 

 

 

 

 

By: Aengus Moorehead @ 18:35 | Category: Football  | Comments: 0 | Permalink