Week 8

October 25 2008 @ 17:06

 The two double-digit favorites last week made for interesting plays, and one of them finally came out a winner against the spread.

The Giants, who were favored by 10 ½ over the visiting 49ers, won 29-17. Meanwhile, the Buccaneers, who were favored by 10 ½ over the Seahawks, won 20-10, failing to cover by half a point. Double-digit favorites have an overall record of 1-8 against the spread this season.

There are two double-digit favorites this week, with the Jets favored by 12 ½ at home against the Chiefs and the Texans a 9 ½ point choice over the visiting Bengals.

MY RECORD AGAINST THE SPREAD

Last week: 6-8

Season: 51-51

 Arizona at Carolina (-4.5)

Last week: Arizona beat Dallas 30-24 two weeks ago; Carolina beat New Orleans 30-7.

It won't get as much attention because it features teams from non-glamour divisions, but this game pits two of the NFC's top teams. The Panthers are looking to run their home record (where they've never been particularly good) to 5-0, while the Cardinals are coming off a bye week hoping to maintain their momentum after a win against (sounds odd, but true) suddenly slumping Dallas. This game is a battle of teams' strengths against each other. The Cardinals are first in the league in scoring and third in passing yards per game, while the Panthers are third in scoring defense and second in passing yards per game allowed. On the other side, the Cardinals' defense has gotten consistent pass rush, with 18 sacks, while the Panthers have allowed one sack in their past four games of playing with patchwork lines. The Panthers aren't built to play a flashy game, but Jake Delhomme's not afraid of a shootout, either. Steve Smith is on a bit of a roll, and he's getting downfield well. With early good work by Mushin Muhammad, the Panthers' passing game has looked good in fits and starts. Even though they were effective against New Orleans, they haven't been consistently good with the ball in their hands. The Cardinals have been better in that respect, but it's always interesting to see how they do with the early wake-up call. They're 3-8 on the road under coach Ken Whisenhunt, and playing when they're used to having breakfast is always an issue. It's hard to tell if Carolina will play with the same intensity it brought to a division game last week, but its defense proved against the Saints it can shut down anyone. Carefully take Panthers.

Tampa Bay at Dallas (-3.5)

Last week: Tampa Bay beat Seattle 20-10; Dallas lost to St-Louis 34-14.

The Cowboys are a shell of the swaggering bunch that left training camp in Oxnard, Calif., a couple of months ago. This team has been beset by injuries – Tony Romo, Felix Jones, Kyle Kosier and Terence Newman all missed the last game- but this team still should be talented enough to win. Perhaps, every so-called NFL expert overrated this team. The Cowboys look lost on offense, defense and special teams. Right now, they have no identity. That's bad because they're entering the meaty part of their schedule with their next three games against Tampa Bay, the New York Giants and after a bye, Washington. For the first time since Jerry Jones hired Wade Phillips, he has had to answer questions about whether he still has confidence in Phillips and whether the loss to the Rams could be the harbinger for a coaching change. The Cowboys, who have already lost three conference games, have lost consecutive games for the first time since 2006. They really can't afford another loss to an NFC team, especially at home, considering they still have road games at the Giants, Redskins, Eagles and Steelers. In the NFL, watch out for the desperate team. The "desperate team" characterization seems to fit the Cowboys this week because their season may be slipping away, their coach is under significant scrutiny, their owner is mad and they've been embarrassed each of the past two weeks. If this doesn't bring out their best effort of the season, despite their litany of injuries, then they have nothing left to give. This game is not about X's and O's for Dallas -- it's about passion and urgency. Will they show it? I don’t think so. Take Buccaneers.

Atlanta at Philadelphia (-8.5)

Last week: Atlanta beat Chicago 22-20 two weeks ago; Philadelphia beat San Francisco 40-26 two weeks ago.

The Eagles and Falcons might each be the biggest surprise in the NFC, for opposite reasons. The Eagles are, surprisingly, just 3-3, having been decimated by injuries to major offensive players, especially All-Pro running back Brian Westbrook. They've led in all but one game but invented new ways to lose. Still, they gained some momentum headed into the bye after stomping out the 49ers, 40-16. Two months ago, nobody could have predicted a 4-2 start for Atlanta and rookie quarterback Matt Ryan. The Falcons only won four games last season. But with a win against Philly they force a three-way tie for first place in the NFC South. Ryan should know all about the sack-happy Eagles defense, which has caused headaches for quarterbacks all season. The rookie was raised in Exton, Pa, a Philadelphia suburb - and quarterbacked the city's Penn Charter school before going to Boston College. In his homecoming, Ryan will have to deal with an intense Eagles pass rush that ranks second in the NFL with 17 sacks and hasn't allowed a wide receiver to go over the 100-yard receiving mark. Eagles coach Andy Reid is usually unflappable after the bye week. Since his first season in 1999, the Eagles are undefeated the week after the bye at 9-0. But the Falcons are finishing under first-year coach Mike Smith. They're coming off impressive wins against Green Bay and Chicago, coming alive in the fourth quarter to beat both. These Eagles are tough to figure out. One game, they're lighting up the scoreboard. The next game they're struggling to move the ball consistently and convert third downs. But they'll be close to full strength for the first time this season, and that should give them enough firepower to overcome upstart Atlanta. However, the spread is too high, the Falcons keeps it close. Take points and Falcons.

San Diego at New Orleans (2.5)

Last week: San Diego lost to Buffalo 23-14; New Orleans lost to Carolina 30-7.

This game, being played at London's Wembley Stadium, almost has the feel of a playoff elimination game, with the Saints and Chargers both underachieving at 3-4 and coming off of disappointing losses. In fact, these two teams are almost carbon copies of each other in every area. This is the first matchup between Drew Brees and the Chargers since they let him go in free agency in 2006. Some of the sting has worn off since then, since the move obviously worked out great for everybody involved. Brees believes New Orleans is where he was meant to be, and Rivers' success has confirmed the Chargers' faith in him. But Brees took the decision very personally in '06, and those feelings have not gone away. He would give his right arm to beat the Chargers this week — if it wasn't so valuable, that is. Theoretically, this isn't an absolute must-win game for either team since it's a non-conference showdown, and both teams could still make a run at their division title with a strong second half. But realistically, a loss on Sunday would be devastating. That is an extremely long flight home from London, followed by what could be a painfully-long bye week for both teams in Week 9. A loss would be particularly stinging for the Saints, who are using up one of their four remaining home games to serve as the host team in this game. The Saints spread their offense around more than most teams, but Reggie Bush is always at the center and he is out for a month with a knee injury. He was their primary rusher, their top pass catcher and the No. 1 focus of defenses. Without him, the Saints become more traditional and can't rely on misdirection and confusion as easily. Take Chargers.

NY Giants at Pittsburgh (-2.5)

Last week: NY Giants beat San Francisco 29-17; Pittsburgh beat Cincinnati 38-10.

This is one of the best early matchups of the season because it involves teams that have the NFL's second-best records, Super Bowl-winning quarterbacks from the same draft class, and similar philosophies. They are also teams that like to rely on physical running games to set up plays in the passing game. What's more, each team loves to pressure the quarterback, though they do it in different manners. The Giants create pressure with their defensive linemen, allowing them to drop extra players into coverage. The Steelers create pressure with their linebackers, particularly, James Harrison and LaMarr Woodley on the outside. They will try to disrupt quarterback Eli Manning and hurry him into bad throws. The Giants will try to pressure Ben Roethlisberger and keep him from getting outside the pocket and making plays. Another interesting twist: The Giants' best receiver, Plaxico Burress was a former No. 1 pick by the Steelers and played four seasons with them before leaving as a free agent. This is the first time he will face his former team. The Steelers' secondary, which hasn't allowed a pass play longer than 35 yards this season, will take extra caution to make sure Burress does not get behind them for big plays. The Giants had won 11 in a row on the road until their Monday night loss in Cleveland on Oct. 13; they appear to play more relaxed away from Giants Stadium. The 5-1 Steelers are beginning a seven-game stretch in which they play six playoff teams from 2007, including the Chargers, Colts and Cowboys. The good news is that five of those games are at home, including four of the next five. This is a battle of tough guys which says field goal game by either. Take Steelers at home.

Oakland at Baltimore (-6.5)

Last week: Oakland beat NY Jets 16-13; Baltimore beat Miami 27-13.

The Ravens beat Miami last week, and now have a good chance to win two more against the Raiders and, next week, the Browns. It’s hard for visiting teams to win at M&T Bank Stadium. The Raiders are built like the Ravens, and they are very physical. The Ravens match up well with these kinds of teams and they’ll beat Oakland because they will shut down the Raider’s running game, and then put pressure on Jamarcus Russell. Russel hasn’t developed to a point yet where he can carry a team. Although the spread high, I expect the Ravens to cover nevertheless. Take Ravens.

Washington at Detroit (7.5)

Last week: Washington beat Cleveland 14-11; Detroit lost to Houston 28-21.

Washington is still feeling the sting of losing (at home) to the then-winless St. Louis Rams and won't be taking the Lions lightly, regardless of what they see on film. The Lions have yet to score a single point in the first quarter (they've been outscored 54-0) so the Redskins are going to be playing with the lead -- and probably a pretty big one. The Lions' recent history is that they'll begin to make a second-half move when their opponent starts to ease off the gas pedal a little bit. Detroit will be a few plays to try to climb back into the game but, as usual, never pose a serious threat. Take Redskins.

Buffalo at Miami (1.5)

Last week: Buffalo beat San Diego 23-14; Miami lost to Baltimore 27-13.

The Dolphins face scary times. With victories against the Patriots and Chargers, they heightened expectations for an organization in transition. With consecutive losses to the Texans and Ravens, they are back to seeking an identity. They face the division-leading Bills in a game that could send their season spiralling -- or rejuvenate them. The Bills enter this game with momentum and the edge. Take Bills.

St-Louis at New England (-6.5)

Last week: Buffalo beat San Diego 23-14; New England beat Denver 41-7.

The Pats are dealing with injuries and a short week. The Rams have beaten far better competition the past two weeks. In this crazy up-and-down season for New England, this week is feeling like a loss. Maybe they suffer the same fate against the Colts next week. That will set up a matchup with Buffalo that sees everyone writing off the Patriots, only for them to beat the Bills. At which the Pats will be declared "back," before losing to Pittsburgh. And so it will go for the rest of this Brady-less season. Take points and Rams.

Kansas City at NY Jets (-12.5)

Last week: Kansas City lost to Tennessee 34-10; NY Jets lost to Oakland 16-13.

Kansas City has a decent defense, but it is overworked. The situation gets worse because the Chiefs must start Thigpen. A win is a win is a win, and that's obviously the goal, but a convincing win would prevent the Jets' shaky confidence from fading further and give them a springboard going into the Buffalo contest. Look for the Jets to be conservative, but solid. I hate to give up that many points but still… Carefully take Jets.

Cleveland at Jacksonville (-6.5)

Last week: Cleveland lost to Washington 14-11; Jacksonville beat Denver 24-17 two weeks ago.

The Jaguars are the only team in the league to have had all of their games decided by seven points or fewer. Despite Cleveland's record, this contest appears to have the makings of a nail-biter, too. Jacksonville has lost two of its last three games coming off a bye week, but the club's injury situation seems to be improving every day. Although injuries led to a slow start for the Jaguars, they never lost confidence. That confidence continues to grow as the club's injured player’s return. Of Jacksonville's next three opponents, the Browns are the only team with a victory. So the Jags look at this game as a perfect opportunity to get on a roll and back in the hunt for the AFC South crown. Take Jaguars.

Cincinnati at Houston (-9.5)

Last week: Houston beat Detroit 28-21; Cincinnati lost to Pittsburgh 38-10.

The game won't likely be a pretty one. Both teams are inconsistent. The Bengals were in the game with the Steelers until the end when they fell apart. The Texans are coming off a victory where they played very well for the first quarter and a half. Then the team fell apart on offense and defense held on for the victory. Both teams hope a victory this week could help propel them to respectability this season. Neither team can afford another loss at this point. With the Texans coming off two wins and getting one more home game this month, they have a slight edge but the Bengals will make it interesting. Take points and Bengals.

Seattle at San Francisco (-4.5)

Last week: Seattle lost to Tampa Bay 20-10; San Francisco lost to NY Giants 29-17.

When the teams met in September, the Seahawks defense was determined to stop Frank Gore who rushed for just 61 yards. But they underestimated O'Sullivan, who threw for 321 yards and made several big plays on third downs. The 49ers will try to keep Seattle off balance by mixing between-the-tackle runs with downfield passes. The Seahawks, meanwhile, will borrow the formula that has worked against O'Sullivan and the 49ers the last four games: Rush four players and hope that O'Sullivan makes a critical blunder against a stacked secondary. In the end, the emotion of the coaching change ought to be enough to topple a reeling Seattle squad. Take 49ers.

Indianapolis at Tennessee (-3.5)

Last week: Indianapolis lost to Green Bay 34-14; Tennessee beat Kansas City 34-10.

The Titans are on a roll, clicking on both sides of the ball through the first six games of the season. The Colts, meanwhile, have sputtered. Even with some of their lesser teams, the Titans have played the Colts well, using a physical brand of football that has given them the edge. On defense, the Titans will slow the Colts down. On offense, the Titans running game will control the football and score enough points to keep them undefeated for another week. Take Titans.

Bye: Chicago, Denver, Green Bay and Minnesota.

By: Aengus Moorehead @ 17:06 | Category: Football  | Comments: 0 | Permalink

Week 7

October 18 2008 @ 19:05

Double-digit favorites continue to fail, with the Redskins and Vikings coming up short last week. Through the first six weeks of the season, teams favored by 10 or more points are 0-7 against the spread.

The Redskins, favored by 13 ½ last week over the visiting Rams, lost 19-17, while the Vikings, favored by 13 over the visiting Lions, won 12-10, failing to cover.

Picking winners is a 60-Minute test. Last week, the winning points in four games were scored in the final 10 seconds of regulation time, while another game went into overtime.

MY RECORD AGAINST THE SPREAD

Last week: 9-5
Season: 45-43

San Diego at Buffalo (1.0)

Last week: San Diego beat New England 30-10; Buffalo lost Arizona 41-17 two weeks ago.

Fresh off their bye week, the Bills face their biggest test of the season when the Chargers invade Ralph Wilson Stadium. Yes, the Bills have a better record than the Chargers. But San Diego is arguably the AFC's most talented team even without injured All-Pro linebacker Shawne Merriman, and was the stylish pick to represent the conference in Super Bowl XXXXIII. The Bills are looking to bounce back from an embarrassing 41-17 loss to Arizona. More important, beating the Chargers would send a message to the rest of the NFL that the Bills are for real. The week off proved beneficial to the Bills from a health standpoint. Quarterback Trent Edwards should return after being knocked out of the Arizona game with a concussion. Despite their record, the Bills have one quality win (at Jacksonville) and had to overcome fourth-quarter deficits to beat a one-win Oakland team and St. Louis, which was winless at the time. Slow starts have been a major problem for the Bills in their past four games, a trend that must end if they want to stay atop the AFC East. The Chargers are maddeningly inconsistent. Their offense, which sputters at times, looked unstoppable against New England. Their defense, which couldn't stop anyone, looked impenetrable against the Patriots. The Chargers may finally be coming together, so the Bills are catching them at the wrong time.Take Chargers.

New Orleans at Carolina (-2.5)

Last week: New Orleans beat Oakland 34-3; Carolina lost to Tampa Bay 27-3.

Even though the Panthers are tied for first in the NFC South and the Saints are bouncing back nicely, this one still has a desperation feel about it. If the Panthers lose, much of the good will they built up will be gone with two division losses in a row. For the Saints, it would underscore their inconsistency if they can't win. New Orleans has been exceptional throwing the ball, even without all quarterback Drew Brees’ top targets. The Panthers had been quite good at stopping both the run and pass before being picked apart by Warrick Dunn and Jeff Garcia last week. Carolina can't be as bad as it looked in Tampa, but this is a tough opponent to bounce back against. The Panthers must be disciplined in the run game, which they had been, but New Orleans creates a different set of problems. With Brees playing as efficiently as he has, this one could well become a shootout. The Panthers have played better defense, but it's hard to imagine them keeping all the Saints' playmakers in check. That puts the pressure on QB Jake Delhomme, who seldom authors two stinkers in a row. There should be opportunities for Steve Smith to make plays against an injury-depleted secondary (the Saints are missing rookie CB Tracy Porter tremendously). The Panthers still want to run, but if they can't get Smith open for some big plays, it might be a long day. Take Saints.

Dallas at St-Louis (6.5)

Last week: Dallas lost to Arizona 36-30; St-Louis beat Washington 19-17.

After a 3-0 start, the Cowboys have lost two of three, looking nothing like the juggernaut that everyone expected in 2008. Now, they're down several key players because of injury and suspension, and following the Rams, they face the Bucs, Giants and Redskins. They cannot afford to stumble in the Edward Jones Dome. The Rams looked like a different team against Washington, with new head coach Jim Haslett taking over for the fired Scott Linehan. They still made a lot of mistakes had trouble moving the ball, but they didn't fold when something bad happened. Was it a fluke or a sign of things to come? There's no doubt that the Cowboys are vulnerable on several fronts due to injury. The Rams, meanwhile, could have a new lease on life under the leadership of Haslett. But the Cowboys still have a huge offensive line and an active defensive front. Jason Witten and Owens remain imposing weapons for a St. Louis secondary that is still shorthanded even with the re-signing of Fakhir Brown. So expecting back-to-back victories by the offensively-impaired Rams over the mighty NFC East is probably asking too much. Take Cowboys.

Indianapolis at Green Bay (1.0)

Last week: Indianapolis beat Baltimore 31-3; Green Bay beat Seattle 27-17.

The Colts are back and they could light up Lambeau Field in a way it hasn't been lit in many years. The Packers haven't been playing great defense, but their secondary is playing well and they'll try to harass the Colts receivers the way New England did during its defensive heyday. It will be a tall order for the Packers to compete with such a high-powered offense, especially with a defensive line battered by injury. The Manning express has a good chance to keep rolling. With its top two running backs out, the Colts could put it up a lot on Sunday. The Packers are trying to get to the bye week without any more injuries. If they can, they have a shot to have most of their starting lineup intact and several key reserves active again. The question is, can they raise their level of play for one game and give the Colts some trouble. The Packers broke a three-game losing streak with a victory over Seattle last Sunday, and they could use a victory going into their bye. After the buy, they face Tennessee and then four straight NFC contenders. The Colts probably have too much offense for the Packers to handle. If the Colts pass rush plays as fast as it did against Baltimore, Rodgers will have a hard time finding his receivers. The only way the Packers win is if they find their running game and control the ball all game long. Take Colts.

Cleveland at Washington (-6.5)

Last week: Cleveland beat NY Giants 35-14; Washington lost to St-Louis 19-17.

Going into their Week 6 matchup against the Rams, the Redskins were seen as a team to beat in the NFC. The problem was, the Redskins also saw themselves as a team to beat. Teams disavow letdowns and the idea that they overlooked an opponent, but that was the case in the loss to the lowly Rams. Now, the Redskins must reestablish themselves as a power team in a power division. They must ignore the Browns' record and play as if they are meeting a potential Super Bowl team. If they do, they Redskins will be OK. If they don't, they will be in serious trouble and in danger of falling into another up-and-down season. Jason Campbell has attempted 201 consecutive passes without an interception. This is a remarkable streak for a quarterback who gave the ball up with some regularity in his first two seasons as the starter. Campbell is making good decisions, and coach Jim Zorn is giving him some high percentage passes to throw. The Redskins are a good team when they feel as if the world doubts them. They let that feeling get away from them against the Rams, and they have a triple-whammy to show for it: a loss, a loss at home and a loss to an NFC opponent. The team needs to get back on track offensively. It was undone by giveaways and several fluke plays last week. Those things are not likely to happen this week. The Browns are playing on the road after a short week. The Redskins have had their reality check, and should be back down to earth now. An opportunistic defense and strong running game should make the game devoid of any late-game mystery. However, the Redskins should emerge as the victor but the Browns will keep it close.Take points and Browns.

Minnesota at Chicago (-2.5)

Last week: Minnesota beat Detroit 12-10; Chicago lost to Atlanta 22-20.

Every time there seems to be a reason to get excited about the Bears, they jerk momentum away. Every time there seems to be a reason to write off their season, they find a way to rekindle enthusiasm. Meanwhile, the Vikings have won consecutive games and are considered a dud after preseason expectations had them running away with the division. Don't look now, but the Bears' most consistent player might be Orton — and he'll find a way, somehow, to pump life back into the Bears' season. Take Bears.

Pittsburgh at Cincinnati (9.5)

Last week: Pittsburgh beat Jacksonville 26-21; Cincinnati lost to NY Jets 26-14.

The Steelers are among the NFL's most aggressive, physical and disciplined teams. They run the ball well, contain the run and play outstanding defense. In addition, Roethlisberger -- who embodies the Steelers image with his toughness -- does a great job of spreading the ball around to his weapons. The Bengals, meanwhile, are the exact opposite. They're sloppy, mistake-prone and don't know how to win. Take Steelers.

Tennessee at Kansas City (7.5)

Last week: Tennessee beat Baltimore 13-10 two weeks ago; Kansas City lost to Carolina 34-0 two weeks ago.

It's hard to picture the Chiefs putting up a bunch of points against the Titans when none of Tennessee's other opponents could do so. While the return of Brodie Croyle at quarterback could help, the Chiefs don't have enough firepower to score a healthy number of points. So Kansas City's chance depends on its defense to create some turnovers and favorable field position and then make Tennessee try to come from behind. Minus that, the Titans will exert their will on the Chiefs early. Take Titans.

Baltimore at Miami (-2.5)

Last week: Baltimore lost to Indianapolis 31-3; Miami lost to Houston 29-28.

Unlike the teams that have defeated Miami this season, Baltimore doesn't have the same type of big receivers that have so far exposed the Dolphins' secondary. Then again, Miami isn't stacked with any playmakers in the passing game, either. This is going to come down to running back Ronnie Brown’s ability to attack a stout defensive front -- and the Dolphins' ability to add yet another element of trickery into the offensive game plan. The Wildcat remains Miami's prized weapon. If it is effective yet again, the Dolphins will have the upper hand. Take Dolphins.

San Francisco at NY Giants (-10.5)

Last week: San Francisco lost to Philadelphia 40-26; NY Giants lost to Cleveland 35-14.

This is the worst case scenario for the 49ers. A Super Bowl Champion team coming off a 21 point loss on the road, now back at home. The 49ers also have to make the tough West to East travel for this game, and haven't been good on defence this season, allowing 40 points to the Eagles, 31 to the Saints, 30 to the Patriots and 33 to the Seahawks in Week 2. I expect the Giants to do the same kind of damage this week. Take Giants.

Detroit at Houston (-8.5)

Last week: Detroit lost to Minnesota 12-10; Houston beat Miami 29-28.

Both teams are desperate for a victory. And both have lost more than one close game this season. Something has to give this week -- one of the teams has to come out on top. Neither team will be able to afford missed assignments or turnovers. The Texans should have the edge, however, since they are playing at home and coming off a big victory. The Lions are on the road again after a game they believe was lost by the officials. If the Texans can jump out to an early lead and carry the confidence from their last game into this one, they could pull out a victory but the spread is too high. Take points and Lions.

NY Jets at Oakland (2.5)

Last week: NY Jets beat Cincinnati 26-14; Oakland lost to New Orleans 34-3.

The Raiders allow too many points and the Jets every now and then can put up major points. Last week, Drew Brees pretty much had his way with the Raiders' defence, although I do not anticipate the same level of efficiency from Favre, he could have a big game as the Raiders like to employ a lot of man to man coverage. The Jets have quietly put two wins together over the last three weeks. Whenever you make a head coaching change in the middle of the season, 90% of the time the effects are minimal. Take Jets.

Seattle at Tampa Bay (-10.5)

Last week: Seattle lost to Green Bay 27-17; Tampa Bay beat Carolina 27-3.

The Bucs have a chance here to take advantage of a team that is down on its luck and really struggling to find itself, particularly on offense. They aren't likely to blow it. The Bucs are superior to Seattle right now in every phase of the game. Seattle will need something really strange to happen to upset the Bucs in their own house. Barring that, look for the Bucs to dominate early and to slowly put the Seahawks out of their misery. Carefully take Buccaneers.

Denver at New England (-2.5)

Last week: Denver lost to Jacksonville 24-17; New England lost to San Diego 30-10.

The league's good teams are going to continue to wreak vengeance against a Patriots squad that was considered arrogant in recent years. The Chargers did it last week, and now it's Denver's turn. The Pats' only hope is Belichick's track record of not following bad outings with more bad outings. That was when he had Brady, though. The Broncos simply have too much firepower with Cutler and top receivers Brandon Marshall and Eddie Royal. Once Matt Cassel has to play from behind, the Patriots will have virtually no shot of winning. If Pats fans thought last week was bad, this week could be even worse. Take Broncos.

Bye: Arizona, Atlanta, Jacksonville and Philadelphia.

By: Aengus Moorehead @ 19:05 | Category: Football  | Comments: 0 | Permalink

Week 6

October 12 2008 @ 08:35

Favorites had a slight edge last week, going 7-5-1, but the hex on double-digit favorites continued.

The Cowboys were the only double-digit favorite last week, giving up 17 points to the visiting Bengals. The Cowboys won the game 31-22, but obviously didn't cover the spread. During the first five weeks, there have been five double-digit favorites. None of them has covered the spread, although three won the game straight-up.

There are two double-digit favorites this week: the Vikings are favored by 13 ½ over the visiting Lions, while the Redskins are favored by 13 ½ over the visiting Rams.

MY RECORD AGAINST THE SPREAD

Last week: 5-9

Season: 36-38

Chicago at Atlanta (2.5)

Last week: Chicago beat Detroit 34-7; Atlanta beat Green Bay 27-24.

The Chicago Bears and Atlanta Falcons were expected to be rebuilding this season. With strong play from the quarterback and running back positions, both teams have emerged as big surprises in the NFL.The NFC North-leading Bears look to win their third straight game, while the Falcons try to build off an impressive victory when they meet Sunday at the Georgia Dome. Rookie quarterback Matt Ryan has had mixed results against the two cover 2 teams he has face. He was successful against Detroit's version and had a tough time against Monte Kiffin's Tampa Bay unit. The Falcons' offensive line has improved its pass blocking, and that has afforded the rookie time to find his receivers. He'll face another test and perhaps better pressure from the Bears. The Bears do give up 223.4 yards passing a game, 23rd in the league. No one had the Falcons going into Lambeau Field and coming out with a victory last week. The Bears likely will be the favorite at the Georgia Dome and toss the Falcons around. But if the Falcons can get the running game going just enough and the wide receivers don't drop passes -- they dropped six against Carolinas and three against Green Bay -- this could be another upset special. Take Falcons.

Detroit at Minnesota (-13.5)

Last week: Detroit lost to Chicago 34-7; Minnesota beat New Orleans 30-27.

On Sunday, the woeful Lions will try to snap a 10-game slide at the Metrodome as they meet the Minnesota Vikings, who will try to build off their biggest win of 2008. Since 2001, Detroit was an NFL-worst 31-84 under general manager Matt Millen before finally firing him on Sept. 24. That change, though, failed to pay immediate dividends on the field. After a 34-7 loss to Chicago last week, the Lions (0-4) remain the only team without a point in the first quarter or a defensive interception at any point of a game. At 2-3, the Vikings are tied with Green Bay for second place in the division behind Chicago (3-2). The Vikings are coming off a win at New Orleans, a team that had Super Bowl aspirations to start the season. The Vikings didn't play well -- their offense struggled most of the night and Adrian Peterson rushed for just 32 yards -- but they took advantage of three key Saints turnovers. Minnesota must pass to establish the run. The tradition formula of running to set up the pass isn't working. The Lions haven't intercepted a pass this season, so Gus Frerotte must take advantage and be aggressive throwing the ball. Opposing quarterbacks have a 122.2 passer rating against the Lions, the NFL's highest figure. The Vikings have swept this series the last five years. Take Vikings.

Carolina at Tampa Bay (-1.5)

Last week: Carolina beat Kansas City 34-0; Tampa Bay lost to Denver 16-13.

The first game against Carolina ended in disaster for the Bucs each of the past two years. In 2006 Tampa Bay lost quarterback Chris Simms for the season to a spleen injury. Last season they lost starting left tackle Luke Petitgout and starting running back Cadillac Williams to knee injuries. None of the three is with the team today. What kind of disaster awaits the Bucs in this one? Well, they could come out of this game injury free and still be hurting, because a loss will drop them two games behind the Panthers in the NFC South title race. This then becomes something of a must win for the Bucs, whose only remaining division matchups are road games against Carolina and Atlanta and a home game against New Orleans. This game will feature a changing of the guard at quarterback for the Bucs, who finished last week on a good note when Jeff Garcia rallied them for a late touchdown after replacing an injured Brian Griese (elbow). Garcia is expected to start Sunday's game. Griese's play has slipped markedly since he took over as the starter a few weeks ago. The Panthers, meanwhile, come into the game riding a wave of success. They pounded away at the Chiefs last week and are 4-1 and off to their best start since reaching the Super Bowl after the 2003 season. They'll be looking to put the Bucs way behind in the race for the division crown. Take Panthers.

Jacksonville at Denver (-3.5)

Last week: Jacksonville lost to Pittsburgh 26-21; Denver beat Tampa Bay 16-13.

Denver regained some equilibrium after a stunning loss in Kansas City by beating a physical Tampa Bay team. It will be deja vu Sunday in terms of playing style from the smash-mouth Jaguars. The Broncos, led by their maligned defense, finally demonstrated that they could hold a team down when the offense isn't in shoot-out mode. The Broncos swarmed to the ball, limited big plays, created turnovers and, perhaps most important, put pressure on the quarterback.

The onus may be on Denver's defense again, with some injuries piling up on the offensive side of the ball that could keep playmakers Eddie Royal and Tony Scheffler out. The defensive challenge will be slightly different this week with Jacksonville QB David Garrard. The Broncos have yet to face someone who's as dangerous escaping the pocket as he is throwing from within it. Denver's defensive ends and linebackers will have to be conscious of their contain responsibilities. But overall, this may be a season-defining game for Jacksonville, coming off another disappointing loss to Pittsburgh. A win sends the Jags into the bye week hoping to get their banged-up roster healthy at 3-3, but 2-4 would be a lengthy climb in the ultra-competitive AFC. Take Jaguars.

Miami at Houston (-2.5)

Last week: Miami beat San Diego 17-10; Houston lost to Indianapolis 31-27.

The Dolphins were once one of the teams the Texans were most likely to defeat this season. That, of course, has changed. The Texans are still looking for their first victory, while the Dolphins are already 2-2 with back-to-back victories over the AFC's two best teams from a year ago -- San Diego and New England. The Texans are trying to rebound from an emotional defeat to the Indianapolis Colts, in which the Texans lost a 17-point lead in the final five minutes to create one of the worst collapses in NFL history. The Texans must see if they can finish a game off. They not only crumbled against the Colts last week, but the previous week the defense was miserable in an overtime loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars. The two teams present an interesting contest. The Dolphins went 1-15 last seasonand is trying to regain the NFL's respect. They are well on their way after convincing victories over the Patriots and Chargers. But they can't afford a slip-up over an 0-4 team. The Texans, on the other hand, thought this was going to be "the season." They had finally gotten to 8-8 last season, and they were sure a winning record and possibly a playoff berth would be in the picture this season. Now, they are simply trying to salvage some of the respect they had started to gain around the league last year. Take Dolphins.

Green Bay at Seattle (-2.5)

Last week: Green Bay lost to Atlanta 27-24; Seattle lost to NY Giants 44-6.

One of these wayward teams will have to find its way back to the winning path. The Seahawks are 1-3 after being drubbed by the Giants last week, while the Packers have squandered a 2-0 start by yielding 27, 30 and 27 points in dropping their past three games -- including a three-point loss to the Atlanta Falcons at Lambeau Field last week.

This is no longer the pupil (Brett Favre) vs. the tutor (Mike Holmgren) matchup that has drawn so much attention when these two teams have met the past three seasons -- and four times in the past five seasons. Favre is now with the Jets, while Holmgren is in his final season as the Seahawks' coach. Instead, this is a battle of a struggling quarterback (the Seahawks' Matt Hasselbeck, who has a 57.7 passer rating) vs. an injured quarterback (the Packers' Aaron Rodgers, who is playing with a sprained shoulder); and two defenses that seem incapable of stopping anyone (the Packers rank No. 26; the Seahawks No. 27).

Something has to give, doesn't it? It does if either of these teams is going to salvage this season and play up to its playoff expectations. Take Packers.

Oakland at New Orleans (-7.5)

Last week: Oakland lost San Diego 28-18 two weeks ago; New Orleans lost to Minnesota 30-27.

New Orleans' offense has been outstanding this season, and the defense has stepped up in recent weeks. It's too early to give up on the season, but a loss to Oakland would be difficult to overcome. Take Saints.

St-Louis at Washington (-13.5)

Last week: St-Louis lost to Buffalo 31-14 two weeks ago; Washington beat Philadelphia 23-17.

The Redskins are ripe for an upset, but the Rams are not the team to do the job. Take Redskins.

Cincinnati at NY Jets (-5.5)

Last week: Cincinnati lost to Dallas 31-22; NY Jets beat Arizona 56-35 two weeks ago.

It appears to have taken Brett Favre only four games with the New York Jets to erase the culture of losing that came with last year's 4-12 squad. It is uncertain if Cincinnati Bengals coach Marvin Lewis can overcome that same problem with his young team. Take Jets.

Baltimore at Indianapolis (-4.5)

Last week: Baltimore lost to Tennessee 13-10; Indianapolis beat Houston 31-27.

The Colts have yet to win in Lucas Oil Stadium, and that can't continue. They are starting to find their rhythm on offense and should be able to make enough plays to outscore a Ravens outfit that has scored 20 points or fewer in three of four games. Take Colts.

Dallas at Arizona (5.5)

Last week: Dallas beat Cincinnati 31-22; Arizona beat Buffalo 41-17.

The Cardinals already are playing up the lack of respect angle and know beating the Cowboys would send a signal to the rest of the league. Not to mention improve their record to 4-2 entering the bye week. The Cowboys, however, are more talented and should win a close one. Take Cardinals.

Philadelphia at San Francisco (4.5)

Last week: Philadelphia lost to Washington 23-17; San Francisco lost to New England 30-21.

San Francisco's previous games don't bode well for a matchup against McNabb and his increasingly healthy group of receivers. Take Eagles.

New England at San Diego (-5.5)

Last week: New England beat San Francisco 30-21; San Diego lost to Miami 17-10.

The Chargers can win this game, and they will be as motivated as they were in their Week 2 game against the Jets, in which they scored 31 first-half points en route to a blowout. But they are facing a better team here. Take Patriots.

NY Giants at Cleveland (-7.5)

Last week: NY Giants beat Seattle 44-6; Cleveland beat Cincinnati 20-12 two weeks ago.

The defending world champs are on a smash-mouth high on both sides of the ball. Cleveland as a viable team remains a shaky theory until the Browns prove otherwise. Take Giants.

Bye: Buffalo, Kansas City, Pittsburgh and Tennessee.

By: Aengus Moorehead @ 08:35 | Category: Football  | Comments: 0 | Permalink

Week 5

October 5 2008 @ 11:51

Week 5

Favorites came through with a winning record last week, going 7-4-2. However, while they have done well in three of the first four weeks, the biggest favorites have not.
Last week, the Cowboys were favored by 11 points over the Redskins, but lost the game straight-up, 26-24. The Broncos, the second-biggest favorite last week, giving up 9 ½ points to the Chiefs, also lost straight-up, 33-19. Meanwhile, the Jaguars, favored by 7 ½ over the Texans, won their game 30-27 in overtime, but failed to cover the spread.
MY RECORD AGAINST THE SPREAD

Last week: 5-8
Season: 31-29

Seattle at NY Giants (-6.5)

Last week: Seattle beat St-Louis 37-13 two weeks ago; NY beat Cincinnati 26-23 two weeks ago.

This game will be played without Giants wide receiver Plaxico Burress, who will serve a one-game suspension for violating team rules. Burress failed to show up for work the day after the Giants' victory over the Bengals, did not call to alert the team about his absence and did not return calls from the team seeking an explanation for his absence. For some reason, the Giants can't seem to get out of their own way in games coming off their bye week. They are 4-15 in such games, and no one involved has a legitimate reason why. They are 1-3 under Tom Coughlin following a bye. Not only can Coughlin not pinpoint the reason, he has no interest in even discussing the problem. For the Seahawks, wide receivers Deion Branch and Bobby Engram are retuning to action and that should be to QB Matt Hasselbeck’s great relief. And with an established running game with Julius Jones – who racked up 267 yards in his last two games- in the backfield, the Seahawks will use the play-action in order to disrupt the Giant’s antagonistic defence. Seattle will cover. Take Seahawks.

Washington at Philadelphia (-5.5)

Last week: Washington beat Dallas 26-24; Philadelphia lost to Chicago 24-20.

The Eagle’s offence is still marred by health issues. Pro Bowl running back Brian Westbrook who was a bystander in last week’s venue against the Bears is still uncertain about his chances of carrying the ball against the Redskins. Fellow pro-bowler right guard Shawn Andrews is contemplating back surgery which could end his season thus complicating the life of Donovan McNabb. Indeed, the Eagles have been struggling on offence. QB Jason Campbell has suddenly emerged as a potential leader for the Redskins and has thrived so far under the tutelage of former QB Jim Zorn. Lefty’s west coast offence suits Campbell famously as he remains the only quarterback without an interception. The Redskins are undeniably soaring after an unforeseen victory in Dallas last week while the Eagle’s sputtering offence has put a clear-cut strain on its defence to hold the fort. Take Redskins.

Tampa Bay at Denver (-2.5)

Last week: Tampa Bay beat Green Bay 30-21; Denver lost to Kansas City 33-19.

The Broncos won't be able to make the mistakes they made in losing to the Chiefs against an opportunistic Buccaneers defense, which already has three touchdowns. The Bucs have yet to allow a 100-yard rusher. Unless the Broncos bust a big play, they don't figure to be the first given the way they've used their rushing attack. Selvin Young and Andre Hall have performed well in the backfield but both average less than ten carries per game thus far this season. The Broncos will still rely on its aerial attack to move the chains but in order to do so; Jay Cutler has to be comfortable in the pocket which was emphatically not the case last week against the Chiefs. Cutler is still in the process of recognizing opposing defenses and if Tampa Bay can throw the same kind of confusing looks they have put forth this season, it will be hard for the young QB to avoid blunders. Take Buccaneers.

Pittsburgh at Jacksonville (-3.5)

Last week: Pittsburgh beat Baltimore 23-20; Jacksonville beat Houston 30-27.

The Jaguars have beaten the Steelers four times in the last three seasons because they are one of the very few teams that can match Pittsburgh physically. In addition, the Steelers are banged up at the moment as Ben Roethlisberger is rehabilitating and running backs Willie Parker and Rashard Mendenhall are both out. The Steelers are down to their third-string backs and must choose between Najeh Davenport and Mewelde Moore. The Jagauars sacked Ben Roethlisberger 11 times in the two games last season, and the Steelers have struggled to protect their quarterback again in 2008. Roethlisberger has been sacked 15 times through four games - most in the AFC - and Pittsburgh's already shaky offensive line took another hit when it lost guard Kendall Simmons for the season during Monday night's 23-20 overtime win over Baltimore. Pittsburgh does not have a proven running back active, while Jacksonville's offensive line is depleted. However, the Jags still have both Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew available and the Steelers will have a difficult time containing those two. Take Jaguars.

 

Minnesota at New Orleans (-3.5)

Last week: Minnesota lost to Tennessee 30-17; New Orleans beat San Francisco 31-17.

The New Orleans Saints turned in their best defensive performance of the season last weekend, thanks to a particularly effective effort against the run. They're sure to be challenged in their next game as they try to contain one of the NFL's top running backs. The Saints have done a solid job of shutting down tailbacks in one-dimensional offenses -- or at least holding them in check. They kept San Francisco's Frank Gore from doing serious damage for the third time in three years. But Peterson is a different story. His combination of speed and power is rare, and he breaks off a ton of yards after contact which is a big Saints defensive weakness. Nevertheless, take Saints.

Tennessee at Baltimore (2.5)

Last week: Tennessee beat Minnesota 30-17; Baltimore lost to Pittsburgh 23-20.

It is always a risky pick to take a road favorite but the Titans have been impressive in the first four weeks of the season. If Joe Flacco thought that he was running for his life against the Steelers' pass rush, wait until he feels what Tennessee shall deliver. Take Titans.

San Diego at Miami (6.5)

Last week: San Diego beat Oakland 28-18; Miami beat New England 38-13 two weeks ago.

The Dolphins had a week off to enjoy their stunning upset of New England. But Miami fans pleading for a winning team must wait. Chargers will make sure of that. Take Chargers.

Chicago at Detroit (3.5)

Last week: Chicago beat Philadelphia 24-20; Detroit lost to San Francisco 31-13 two weeks ago.

The Bears have a good pass-rushing front four and a solid set of playmaking linebackers. The Lions have ... neither. The Bears are playing with a great deal of confidence and stability after a huge win over the Eagles. Take Bears.

Atlanta at Green Bay (-6.5)

Last week: Atlanta lost to Carolina 24-9; Green Bay lost Tampa Bay 30-21.

I am going to take the Packers to win and cover with the anticipation that Aaron Rodgers will start. Take Packers.

Indianapolis at Houston (2.5)

Last week: Houston lost to Jacksonville 30-27; Indianapolis lost to Jacksonville 23-21 two weeks ago.

The Colts are off to a rough start but with the bye week providing more than just physical recovery, I look for the Colts to be more fundamentally sound. After all, they have beaten the Texans in 11 of their last 12 games. Take Colts.

Kansas City at Carolina (-9.5)

Last week: Kansas City beat Denver 33-19; Carolina beat Atlanta 24-9.

After starting 0-3, the Chiefs finally let RB Larry Johnson have the ball. The soundly coached Panthers will be ready for what Johnson brings to the table. Take Panthers.

Buffalo at Arizona (-1.5)

Last week: Buffalo beat St-Louis 31-14; Arizona lost to NY Jets 56-35.

The Bills are much better at protecting the ball, running the ball and avoiding big mistakes. Arizona's defense will have a difficult time handling the balance of Trent Edwards and Marshawn Lynch. Take Bills.

New England at San Francisco (2.5)

Last week: New England lost to Miami 38-13 two weeks ago; San Francisco lost to New Orleans 31-17.

Bill Belichick has always been a master of keeping his team motivated in the face of adversity, but this may be his greatest challenge yet. Carefully take 49ers.

Cincinnati at Dallas (-16.5)

Last week: Cincinnati lost to Cleveland 20-12; Dallas lost Washington 26-24.

There's no guarantee Carson Palmer will play, and the Cowboys should have plenty of incentive after their first loss. Dallas will attempt to prove it can manhandle inferior opponents. Take Cowboys.

 

Bye: NY Jets, Oakland, St-Louis and Cleveland.

By: Aengus @ 11:51 | Category: Football  | Comments: 0 | Permalink