Conference Championship

January 23 2010 @ 14:53

Greetings Lasses and Lads.

MY RECORD AGAINST THE SPREAD:

Last week: 1-3

Season: 132-132.

NY Jets at Indianapolis (-7.5)

Last week: Jets beat Chargers 17-14; Colts beat Ravens 20-3.

The winningest team of the past decade is in an ideal position: It will be playing in front of what promises to be a thunderous Lucas Oil Stadium sellout crowd, one win away from a second Super Bowl appearance in the past four seasons. It's time for Peyton Manning and his experienced teammates to deliver.

Even though 18 players on the active roster are in the midst of their first postseason run, the pressure of the moment shouldn't be too great. The core leadership -- Manning, center Jeff Saturday, wide receiver Reggie Wayne, tight end Dallas Clark, linebacker Gary Brackett and defensive ends Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis -- has been here before.

Can the Colts finish off the Jets, something they refused to do on Dec. 27? That day, coach Jim Caldwell enraged the fan base by pulling the starters in the third quarter of what disintegrated into a 29-15 loss. The decision cost the team a chance at perfection.

The Jets are the latest Cinderella team to challenge for a Super Bowl berth. They needed that comeback win over the Colts to even qualify for the playoffs. Once in, they've gone on the road and imposed their blue-collar will on the Bengals and Chargers.

Hey, the Jets have to stick with what works. After having a 2-1 edge in takeaways over San Diego last week, the Jets are 10-0 when they have fewer giveaways than their opponents. That includes wins in their last four games. But they didn't force any turnovers against Peyton Manning in the first meeting, and that must change for them to win the rematch. They must find a way to pressure Peyton.

Nobody is suggesting that the Jets should abandon the "ground and pound" philosophy that has gotten them this far, but keep in mind that 145 of their 202 rushing yards in the first meeting with Indianapolis came after Manning had been removed from the game, after all the emotion and momentum had shifted to the Jets. A well-timed long pass or two could work wonders, particularly if the Colts, as expected, stack the box.

True, the Jets are on a normal work week, but they lost time having to fly back from the West Coast. This will be their sixth road game in an eight-week span, so coach Rex Ryan made a concession to possible fatigue by giving his team two days off at the start of the week. Indianapolis had an extra day to prepare and hasn't left home in three weeks, so the Colts figure to be much fresher. The Jets must ignore that and run on pure emotion.

The Colt’s defense stymied the Ravens' punishing ground game in a divisional round win, and it should be utilized against the Jets' 1-2 punch of running backs Thomas Jones and Shonn Greene. The plan consists of being stout at the point of attack with tackles Dan Muir and Antonio Johnson, and having linebackers Clint Session and Gary Brackett and safeties Melvin Bullitt and Antoine Bethea fill their gaps and swarm to the ball.

It's no secret. The Jets will try to control the game and the clock with Jones and Greene, and limit what they ask from rookie QB Mark Sanchez. Limiting New York's ground game should produce more favorable situations on third down, which should enable ends

Rex Ryan's defense is physical and aggressive. Its makeup leads to uneven play even for the most efficient offense. Things aren't likely to come easily for Manning, especially if the Jets are able to exert pressure. But in what promises to be a tight game against an opponent not built for high-scoring games, it's incumbent upon Manning to take care of the football and not give the Jets short-field opportunities or easy scores.

The Colts could have KO'd the Jets in December, but declined. Now they've got to close the deal with a trip to Super Bowl XLIV on the line. The Jets are a brass-knuckles bunch and the warm-and-fuzzy story among the NFL's Final Four. But they aren't likely to score enough to keep up with Manning. With so much on the line, Manning will show why he's the league's MVP, but the Jets keep it close. Take points and Jets.

Minnesota at New Orleans (-3.5)

Last week: Vikings beat Cowboys 34-3 ; Saints beat Cardinals 45-14.

The quarterbacks are as good as it gets. Minnesota's Brett Favre is remarkably having one of the best seasons of his Hall of Fame career, and he played one of his best games Sunday, throwing four touchdown passes in a 34-3 rout of the Dallas Cowboys.

But Favre didn't come out of retirement again to settle for the NFC Championship Game. It's Super Bowl or bust for the NFL's all-time leader in passing yards and passing touchdowns, who has not been back to the Super Bowl since losing to Denver 12 years ago.

New Orleans' Drew Brees, meanwhile, is trying to get to his first Super Bowl and, in the process, break into that elite stratosphere of quarterbacks. Brees, who turned 31 last week, set the NFL record for completion percentage in a season, and he became the second quarterback to throw for 4,000 yards in four consecutive seasons (joining Peyton Manning).

Last year, Brees was the second QB ever to throw for 5,000 in a season. But he knows that he'll ultimately be judged by how he performs in games like these.

As it should be, the NFC title will be decided by a showdown between the two best teams. The Saints (14-3) and Vikings (13-4) were dominant for much of the season before a couple of mini-slumps in December. And both of them reached their peak last week in the divisional round of the NFC playoffs, winning by the same margin -- 31 points.

This should be the toughest matchup to date for both teams. Each team can score points. The Saints offense, which led the league in points scored, is thrilling to watch and creates matchup nightmares for defenses because it is so deep and versatile. The Vikings offense is even more balanced, though, with Favre playing as well as ever while defenses continue to focus on stopping All-Pro tailback Adrian Peterson.

The Vikings have a fearsome defensive front, and the Saints have an aggressive, opportunistic defense. And both teams are built to take advantage of the other's biggest weakness (for the Saints, it's their porous run defense; for the Vikings, it's their shaky play at safety). There will be no free rides into the Super Bowl.

Saints safety Darren Sharper will provide a fascinating subplot for several reasons. For one, he's dying to make his former team pay for giving up on him last offseason, where he lingered in free agency before settling on a one-year bargain deal in New Orleans.

He also has a longtime personal relationship with Favre, who was his teammate in Green Bay for eight years before they became rivals when Sharper went to Minnesota. And like Favre, Sharper is trying to get back to the Super Bowl for the first time in 12 years as he heads toward the twilight of his career.

It would be shocking if Sharper didn't have a major impact on how this game plays out. He has been an incredible playmaker for the Saints this year, helping to lead their drastic culture change on defense. He intercepted nine passes with three touchdown returns and an NFL record 376 interception return yards this season, then added a fumble recovery last week against Arizona (plus an interception that was called back by a late hit).

Sharper does like to gamble, though, and Favre knows him as well as anybody, so they'll try to pick on each other.

The Vikings, meanwhile, could really use Sharper on their side in this game. Their safeties have not stepped up consistently in Sharper's absence, and now they're going against arguably the league's most dangerous passing offense.

The Saints' biggest weakness is their run defense, and the Vikings must exploit that with Adrian Peterson's strong cutbacks, a facet of opposing running backs that has given New Orleans problems. The Vikings are 6-0 when Peterson carries the ball at least 25 times, including the 34-3 victory over Dallas in the divisional round. Peterson had 26 carries for 63 yards.

When Peterson gets a high number of carries, it helps the offense control time of possession and the linemen have the chance to assert their will on defensive linemen eager to rush Favre.

Brees is one of the least sacked players in the NFL in recent years because of his mobility and quick release under pressure. The Vikings don't need to necessarily sack Brees often to win this game, but they must keep him from buying extra time getting outside of the pocket. If pass rushers can put pressure on Brees with the front four, as they did last week against Dallas, the secondary won't have to cover the Saints' dangerous receivers as long.

When healthy, the Saints' starting cornerback tandem of Tracy Porter and Jabari Greer are a force for opposing receivers. Porter and Greer allowed one passing touchdown in their season's first eight games. It's up to Vikings receivers to get open and give Favre openings to hit them. This is the biggest game in the young pro careers of Percy Harvin (questionable for the game) and Sidney Rice, and they need to respond to the tough matchup.

Tailback Reggie Bush looked healthier, faster and more dangerous than ever last week against the Cardinals. The receivers create matchup nightmares: Marques Colston (a big, tall target with great hands), Devery Henderson and Robert Meachem (speedy downfield threats) and Lance Moore (a shifty target with great hands in the mold of Wes Welker and Miles Austin). Tight end Jeremy Shockey is one of the best receivers at his position. And the Saints have been running the ball effectively.

Brees' ability to avoid sacks is in large part because he makes quick decisions, gets rid of the ball and finds holes in defenses. Defenses rarely have success when they blitz against him. But he's obviously more dangerous when he has time in the pocket to wait for plays to open up downfield.

And Minnesota's front four, led by end Jared Allen and tackle Kevin Williams, rarely give quarterbacks that time, especially on the fast track inside a dome. This will be a huge test for Saints left tackle Jermon Bushrod, who has been mostly solid in his first season as the Saints starter.

Bushrod had a forgettable performance against Dallas in Week 15, as did the entire Saints' pass protection. But he held his own against Julius Peppers, John Abraham and the Giants and Jets, among others. The Saints will surely offer him help with blocking help from tight ends and backs, but that takes a receiver out of the fold.

The Saints have been vulnerable to big plays in the run game, especially on the opening drive this year. And once again, they let Arizona's Tim Hightower break off a 70-yard touchdown run on the first play of scrimmage last week.

They settled down after that, allowing 31 rushing yards the rest of the game. But their run defense was inconsistent past three months. It has been especially porous against cutback runs, but the problems have stemmed from missed assignments to missed tackles in every level of the defense.

A painfully long drought will end for one of these tortured franchises. The Vikings went to four Super Bowls in the 1960s and 1970s and lost all four of them. They haven't been back in 33 years. But they have nothing on the Saints, who have never reached a Super Bowl in 43 years -- one of five teams left on that list. In fact, this will be the first time New Orleans has ever been host to an NFC championship game. Expect a frenzied Superdome crowd that will do all it can to will the Saints to victory. This game could be decided by a field goal. Take points and Vikings.

By: Aengus Moorehead @ 14:53 | Category: Football  | Comments: 0 | Permalink

Divisional Playoffs

January 14 2010 @ 19:00

Greetings Lasses and Lads.

My record against the spread:

Last week: 3-1

Season: 131-129.

Arizona at New Orleans (-6.5)

Last week: Cardinals beat Packers 51-45; Saints lost to Panthers two weeks ago 23-10.

This has all the makings of another spectacular offensive display, with two of the game's most dynamic offenses and skilled quarterbacks going head-to-head. The Saints led the NFL in scoring at 31.9 points per game, and the Cardinals just won a 51-45 overtime shootout against Green Bay in the wild-card round.

Obviously, both teams plan on playing some defense Saturday afternoon, but there should be plenty of touchdowns. Saints QB Drew Brees finished second in the NFL's MVP voting, setting a league-record for completion percentage (70.62) while throwing for 4,388 yards, 34 touchdowns and a league-high passer rating of 109.6. Cardinals QB Kurt Warner was a little more Clark Kent in the regular season, but as usual he turned into Superman when the playoffs began, throwing more TD passes last week (five) than he did incomplete passes (four).

Everyone's curious to see how the Saints look after a lengthy hiatus, including the Saints. After a spectacular 13-0 start, New Orleans hasn't won a game in more than a month now. The Saints sustained their first loss against the now-scorching Cowboys at the Superdome in Week 15, then followed that up with a hangover loss at home against lowly Tampa Bay. And Saints coach Sean Payton mostly rested his starters in Week 17 at Carolina, favoring health and rest over momentum. We'll find out which is more important.

The Saints should, indeed, be  healthier and complete team than they've been since midseason. Most important, starting cornerbacks Jabari Greer and Tracy Porter will be back at full speed. The Saints' defense was much better with Greer and Porter in the lineup the first two months.

Once again, most NFL observers were sleeping on the Cardinals after a sluggish regular-season finish. And once again, they saved their best for the playoffs. Arizona was flawless on offense last week, even without injured receiver Anquan Boldin. Warner and Pro Bowl wide receiver Larry Fitzgerald are a deadly combination, and several players add help around them, including rookie running back Beanie Wells, who has given the Cardinals a decent rushing attack.

But the Cardinals' defense is obviously shaky. They don't apply enough pressure, and they aren't deep in the secondary behind their top three playmakers. They were opportunistic last week, forcing two early turnovers to set the tone against Green Bay and then winning the game on a sack/fumble that was returned for a touchdown in overtime.

The Packers scored 45 points last week, largely by making plays through the air. In almost every instance, a Cardinals defensive back missed a tackle. It wasn't just one person making mistakes. Everyone was at fault, but cornerback Bryant McFadden, particularly, was exposed. The Cardinals can't afford to be that sloppy again.

Opponents that have given the Cardinals trouble have been able to pressure Warner without blitzing too much. The problem for the Saints is the Cardinals have an effective short passing game and now can run the ball. If they can run effectively Saturday, Warner should be able to make some plays downfield.

Success early in the game gives the Cardinals confidence throughout. That's what happened against the Packers, when the Cardinals forced two turnovers on Green Bay's first three plays. That helped get the Cardinals in rhythm on offense, and it carried them to victory.

For most of the year, the Saints were threatening the 2007 Patriots' record for most points scored in a season. But their offense turned uncharacteristically sluggish in November and December, especially early in games. The Saints must score in this game, early and often, because it's what they do best and they're a much more effective team when playing with a lead. The Saints' running game becomes more efficient, and their opportunistic defense loves to pounce on desperate teams. Not that the Saints can't play catch-up, if needed. The Saints can score in bunches with Brees and his embarrassment of weapons.

The Saints' run defense was their biggest weakness the past three months and hit rock bottom when they let the one-dimensional Buccaneers run all over them in Week 16. Fortunately, the Cardinals aren't a power-running team and finished 28th in rushing yards. But Wells has been coming on strong and broke off some big runs last week, so the Saints must bottle him up. The Saints' biggest issue has been keeping containment on the back side, allowing some big cutback runs. But they've been getting gashed up the middle at times, too, and everyone has missed tackles. Having the cornerbacks healthy should be a bonus here, because it will allow the Saints to take more chances up front and to use strong safety Roman Harper more frequently in run support.

All teams strive in winning the turnover battle, especially the playoffs. But it will be especially important in a game where every offensive possession could result in points. The Saints must look no further than last week when the Packers were done in by two early turnovers that put them in a 17-0 hole against Arizona. Then after Green Bay clawed back, the Cardinals forced another game-winning turnover in overtime. The Saints are pretty good with ball security. Brees will take some chances, but they're usually calculated risks. And the Saints' defense is an aggressive bunch that's also willing to gamble, which led to 39 takeaways this year (second in the NFL). It will help if the Saints can get pressure on Warner, who isn't mobile and can get rattled.

Neither team can afford to start slow or be sloppy with the football in this game, because the other offense will pounce quickly. The Saints need to prove they can flip the switch back on after their December struggles, but they've been at their best in high-profile games, most recently their Monday night rout over New England in Week 12.

Arizona was obviously able to flip that switch on last week, just like they did on the way to the Super Bowl a year ago. But the Cardinals seem to have a slimmer margin for error now, with more question marks across the board, especially if Boldin is out or limited. Both teams are hoping it won't come down to the kickers, but it just might. Take points and Cardinals.

Baltimore at Indianapolis (-6.5)

Last week: Ravens beat Patriots 33-14; Colts lost to Bills two weeks ago 30-7.

Colts QB Peyton Manning earned a record fourth MVP award last week. The magnitude of that could lessen if he's unable to lead his teammates past the Ravens on Saturday night.

The Colts hardly are a one-man show, but Manning is the offensive catalyst who sets the tone. Despite his presence, the franchise has lost its first playoff game in six of its nine appearances since his arrival in 1998. Another one-and-done would be tough for the organization, and city, to stomach.

The organization eschewed perfection during the regular season to focus on being as healthy as possible for postseason. After directing the team to a 14-0 start, coach Jim Caldwell infuriated a large portion of the team's fan base by limiting the playing time of Manning and other front-line players in closing losses to the Jets and Bills. If the team comes out rusty or flat and fails to advance despite being rested and healthy, Colts fans will scream loud and long.

The chess match between Manning and Ravens inside linebacker Ray Lewis always is worth the price of admission. Manning is an expert at making pre-snap reads and adjustments. Lewis prides himself on matching wits with Manning. The game's outcome might come down to who is able to guess right the most.

The Ravens must run directly at the Colts. Indianapolis has too much speed to be beaten on the perimeter. Big offensive tackles Michael Oher and Jared Gaither should allow the team to run directly at the Colts' lightweight defensive line, especially Pro Bowl ends Robert Mathis and Dwight Freeney. If the Ravens run effectively early, that would force the Colts to put one or both safeties near the box and out of their comfortable cover-2 zone. That's when the passing game will succeed.

The Raven’s blitzes should come up the middle, not off the perimeter. Manning and New England QB Tom Brady aren't bothered by outside pressure because they can adjust and sidestep those blitzes without difficulty. But both Manning and Brady have trouble with blitzes up the middle because opponents get in their face quickly. Last week against Brady, the Ravens had great success by blitzing outside linebackers up the middle. Expect more of the same Saturday night against Manning.

The Ravens can play with the Colts and should have beaten them Nov. 22. In the past, the Colts haven't played well following a bye in the playoffs. They Ravens must score early, and plant that seed of doubt again. Also, the Ravens are playing with a lot of confidence and an early touchdown would allow that to grow.

And that one dimension is throwing the ball. Baltimore ran over New England last week with 234 yards on 52 carries. Ray Rice and Willis McGahee combined for 221 yards on 42 carries. Colts defensive coordinator Larry Coyer's front seven must limit the damage by swarming to the ball. The return of linebacker Clint Session and safety Melvin Bullitt are huge plusses. Against Baltimore in Week 11, the Colts limited the Ravens to 98 yards on 31 rushes. Baltimore QB Joe Flacco is dealing with a hip injury and is immobile. Make him, not Rice or McGahee, win the game.

The Colts are virtually unbeatable when Manning runs an error-free offense. They've won 25 consecutive regular-season games when not turning the ball over. That streak includes four wins over the opportunistic Ravens. The Colts' offense, though, had three turnovers against Baltimore in November, including two Manning interceptions. That allowed the Ravens to hang around and necessitated a late-game stop by the defense to secure the win. Lewis, safety Ed Reed and the rest of the defense will force the issue. Manning must remain patient and capitalize when big-play opportunities are presented.

Arguably the best kicker in NFL history, Vinatieri still isn't 100 percent after October arthroscopic surgery on his right knee. The Colts will rely on Matt Stover, the Ravens' career scoring and field-goal leader. If the Ravens' defense stiffens or the Colts' offense falters, it will be imperative for Stover to finish drives with field goals. In November's 17-15 Colts win over the Ravens, he delivered the winning margin in the fourth quarter with a 25-yard field goal. Ravens kicker Billy Cundiff accounted for all of his team's scoring with five field goals in November but missed a 30-yarder. The importance of knocking down field goals was most evident when the Colts beat the Ravens in Baltimore in a 2006 playoffs. Vinatieri delivered all of their scoring in a 15-6 win.

The building will be rocking and the pressure will be on for Manning and the No. 1-seeded Colts. And there will be no excuses. Caldwell's decision to ease up in the final two regular-season games produced the desired results: his team is rested and healthy. Even if it takes the Colts a series or two to regain their rhythm on both sides of the ball after the bye, they'll find it and do more than enough, especially offensively, to dismiss the Ravens. Barring another 200-yard rushing performance by Rice and McGahee, the Colts move on but Ravens cover. Take points and Ravens.

Dallas at Minnesota (-2.5)

Last week: Cowboys beat Eagles 34-14; Vikings beat Giants two weeks ago 44-7.

A couple of weeks ago, the NFC playoffs appeared to be wide open as the Vikings and Saints stumbled through December. Now the hot team is Dallas, which has quickly gained momentum after back-to-back wins over Philadelphia, including a 34-14 trouncing in the wild-card round. The third-seeded Cowboys are favored by many to defeat the second-seeded Vikings on Sunday. The Cowboys are 2 ½  point underdogs on the road, but it's the Vikings who feel they're being overlooked.

It's an interesting matchup that features two quarterbacks who have toned down their gunslinging ways this season. Dallas' Tony Romo and Minnesota's Brett Favre both set career lows for interceptions this season. Sunday's outcome could come down to which quarterback makes fewer mistakes.

Wade Phillips, who coached the Cowboys to their first playoff win since 1996, is known for his acumen on defense. And how his 3-4 system performs against a Vikings team loaded with options in the West Coast offense could become the biggest factor in the game.

The Cowboys have no chance to win if Minnesota can run and pass whenever it chooses. It must slow RB Adrian Peterson enough to make the Vikings one-dimensional. Then Dallas can attack Favre with an array of blitzes and hope he makes mistakes. Peterson had a down year but still gained 1,383 yards, averaged 4.4 per carry and scored 18 touchdowns. He had only three 100-yard games but had four others with more than 90 yards. The Cowboys finished fourth in the NFL against the run (90.5) and did not allow a 100-yard rusher this season.

Minnesota's offense is a beast in the Metrodome, where the Vikings have not scored fewer than 27 points while going 8-0. Dallas has allowed more than 21 points twice this season and the Giants did it both times. The Cowboys' defense has been sensational the last month, yielding just 31 points combined and recording two shutouts. The emergence of outside linebacker Anthony Spencer and cornerback Mike Jenkins has given the Cowboys two more playmakers, All-Pro outside linebacker DeMarcus Ware and All-Pro nose tackle Jay Ratliff are the others, surrounded by a core of solid players. The Vikings' offense will be the ninth top-10 attack the Cowboys have faced this season, and only the Giants have surpassed their average in points and yards against Dallas.

The Cowboys finished the season No. 2 in the NFL in offensive penalties (65) and No. 1 in offensive penalty yardage (491). They backed up their poor standing with nine offensive penalties last week against Philadelphia, some of which resulted in the Cowboys failing to score after entering the red zone. Dallas can't afford to leave points on the field because of offensive penalties.

Vikings offensive tackles Bryant McKinnie and Phil Loadholt must contain Ware and Spencer, who combined for three of the four sacks on Philadelphia's Donovan McNabb last week. McKinnie and Loadholt do struggle at times with speed rushers. McKinnie was voted to the Pro Bowl this year, but he struggled late in the year against the speed and power of Carolina's Julius Peppers and was benched in the second half.

To neutralize the Dallas pass rush, the Vikings say they want to establish the run. That would help the offensive line set the tone as a physical group. Peterson will be needed in these playoffs. He must protect the ball after leading the league in lost fumbles (six). A good ground game would take the pressure off Favre. The Cowboys made the Philadelphia offense one-dimensional with just 13 rushing attempts last week. The Vikings can't let a similar situation unfold.

Romo's big-play receiver, Miles Austin, could be a big challenge for an up-and-down secondary. If cornerback Antoine Winfield (foot) doesn't play his usual position on the outside, the Vikings would be forced to rely on Benny Sapp and Cedric Griffin to handle the majority of the snaps against Austin. Winfield played in the nickel defense against the Giants two weeks ago because he wasn't 100 percent. Austin has good speed, and Winfield wasn't a burner even when healthy. This could prove to be quite the mismatch for Dallas.

Vikings coach Brad Childress is looking for his first playoff win after losing to Philadelphia in the wild-card round last season with Tarvaris Jackson at quarterback. The Vikings need to put the ball in Brett Favre's hands. This is why they signed him: to lead them in the playoffs. If he fails, so be it. The team has played its best football when Favre is the focal point of the offense, and they need to trust the same formula to work again.

If this game is close, the X-factor could be the fact that the Vikings have an excellent kicker (Ryan Longwell), while the Cowboys are relying on Shaun Suisham, who was released by Washington in December after missing a short field goal against the Saints. The Vikings are undefeated at home this season, but Dallas is on a roll. Take Cowboys.

NY Jets at San Diego (-7.5)

Last week: Jets beat Bengals 24-14; Chargers beat Redskins two weeks ago 23-20.

The Jets received a gift postseason berth, but they proved worthy of being in the playoffs with one of their finest all-around performances in last week's wild-card victory at Cincinnati. The Chargers, on the other hand, have won 11 in a row, with victories over the entire NFC East and Cincinnati along the way. Both teams are playing with confidence.

This will be a matchup of strength vs. strength. The Chargers averaged 28.4 points, fourth in the NFL. The Jets allowed 14.8 points, fewest in the league. The Chargers do most of their damage through the air, averaging 271.1 yards passing, fifth in the league. The Jets are the NFL's stingiest pass defense, allowing just 153.7 yards per game. The key matchups in the secondary will be worth the price of admission, with All-Pro cornerback Darrelle Revis most likely to shadow Pro Bowl receiver Vincent Jackson and the Jets' safeties getting physical with Pro Bowl tight end Antonio Gates.

Chargers Pro Bowl QB Philip Rivers loves the game and lets his emotions show. That the Jets' defense does its own talking could only add to the entertainment value. This is also where the game could be won and lost. Rivers won't be stupid going after Revis, but he has yet to shy away from opponents' top cornerback. With the Chargers' slew of tall receivers and Rivers' knack for putting the ball where only they can catch it, the results are sometimes spectacular. Of course, Revis has seven interceptions in 17 games and likely will provide Jackson his stiffest challenge.

Yes, it's repetitious but true. In games in which they have more takeaways than their opponents, the Jets are 9-0, including wins in their last three games. The latest was the playoff victory over Cincinnati in which Revis had an interception and defensive end Shaun Ellis recovered a fumble. The Jets committed no turnovers last week. They are 0-5 in games in which they have more giveaways. San Diego's 17 turnovers were the second-fewest in the NFL this season.

San Diego hasn't scored fewer than 20 points in a game this season, so it might not be realistic for even the Jets' No. 1-ranked defense to hold down San Diego for too long. But the Jets can't give up too many big plays to Rivers, Jackson, Gates, etc., or they will find themselves playing catch-up with an offense more suited to play from ahead.

True, the Jets had an extra day to prepare because they played last Saturday, but this will be their fifth road game in a seven-week span and will be flying cross-country to San Diego. The emotional Jets must not expend too much energy early in the game or else might have little in the tank for the second half.

Rookie quarterback Mark Sanchez was as efficient as the Bengals allowed him to be last week. He completed 12-of-15 passes, which is impressive. Even more impressive was that he could get away with attempting that few, as the Jets moved the ball on the ground. The Chargers, who were 20th against the run in the regular season, must stop the Jets' top-ranked rushing attack early and make Sanchez convert on second-and-long and third-and-long. Pressure and coverage are the strengths of the Chargers' defense.

The Chargers have outscored opponents 83-16 in the first quarter during their 11-game winning streak. It's imperative that they establish early that they will dictate the course of the game; the Jets win with defense and running and presumably would like to play this game at a leisurely pace. Making Sanchez play from behind and making the Jets' defense less aggressive is an almost sure recipe for success.

The Chargers might have too many weapons on offense, and their run defense improved greatly over the final month of the season. There is little reason to believe their run won't continue. If they can put Sanchez in uncomfortable positions, they should have success.

 The Jets have confidence, sure, but being on the road against a good team and down early with a rookie QB could put them in a situation they can't overcome. And the Chargers are playing with a rare assuredness; they've won big games all through November and December, and they've been in the playoffs four seasons in a row. Chargers win but Jets cover. Take points and Jets.

By: Aengus Moorehead @ 19:00 | Category: Football  | Comments: 0 | Permalink

Wild Card Weekend

January 8 2010 @ 11:06

Greetings Lasses and Lads.

My record against the spread:

Last week: 7-9

Season: 128-128.

 

NY Jets at Cincinnati (-2.5)

Last week: Jets beat Bengals 37-0.

The Bengals crash the postseason party for the first time since the 2005 season and for only the second time in 19 years. It's a rarity, and the only way to make it memorable is to rebound from that embarrassing 37-0 loss to the Jets in the regular-season finale on national TV and win the wild card rematch at Cincinnati's Paul Brown Stadium. If the Bengals follow up their first-round playoff defeat in '05 with another quick exit, disappointment as well as disgust will reign in the Queen City.

The Jets boast the NFL's No. 1 defense (252.3 yards) and the league's No. 1 rushing attack (172.2), but they're second to last in passing and 20th overall on offense. The numbers are clear signs that rookie QB Mark Sanchez is well-protected by a stellar defense and strong running game. Jets head coach Rex Ryan is simply asking Sanchez to manage games, not win them all by himself. The same goes for Bengals QB Carson Palmer, who is surrounded by the league’s No. 9 rushing attack (128.5) and No. 4 defense (301.4).

The game marks the first time the Bengals will play the same opponent in consecutive weeks. The closest previous instance was in 1990 when they clawed the Houston Oilers, 41-14, in the wild card playoff round two weeks after beating them, 40-20, in Week 15. The last team to beat the Bengals in a playoff game in Cincinnati? The Jets, 44-17, on Jan. 9, 1983. Saturday will be the 27th anniversary of the Jet’s rout; will history repeat? Stay tuned.

In games in which they have more takeaways than their opponents, the Jets are 8-0, including wins in their last two regular-season games. And they are 0-5 in games in which they have more giveaways. The Jets must run the ball effectively, as they did Sunday against the Bengals, and keep the game from being decided by Sanchez.

QB Carson Palmer started and played into the third quarter last week but the Bengals showed little on offense keeping the game plan as vanilla as possible. While the Jets certainly didn't show everything in their defensive arsenal last week, they showed more than Cincinnati because it was a must-win game for New York. The Jets must prepare for many more wrinkles from Palmer & Co. on Saturday.

Wide receiver/Wildcat QB/return man Brad Smith has been a key cog in the Jets' past two victories, but the Bengals surely will be more prepared for him this time around. If Cincinnati forces him to pitch out when he runs the option, it will be up to trailing back Shonn Greene to make something happen. Or perhaps Sanchez will need to turn it loose once or twice and look for Braylon Edwards downfield.

The Jets have formidable runners in Thomas Jones (1,402 yards), Greene (540) and Smith (207). Jones is fast, quick and elusive, Greene is a hammer and Smith is a valuable weapon out of the Wildcat formation. If the Bengals can't contain them to create third-and-long situations, they'll be at the mercy of the clock-eating Jets.

To prevail, the Bengals must win the turnover battle. They're 37-6-1 under Coach Marvin Lewis when they generate a positive turnover differential. On the flip side, they're 7-35 under Lewis when they lose the turnover battle. The Bengals, who have been limited to three second-half touchdowns in the past nine games, must create opportunities and take advantage of them.

Bengal RB Cedric Benson and the offensive line hold the keys to victory. The line is built to run the ball, and Benson has the speed, power, quickness and agility to move the chains and cross the goal line. The Bengals' goal is to keep the game close, then win it in the fourth quarter in true "Cardiac Cats" style like they did so many times this season.

Cincinnati has scored only 49 points in the third quarter this season, a sign they struggle with halftime adjustments. The offense also is famous for false-start penalties and alignment and assignment errors. If they don't clean up the mistakes, they can't win.

The Bengals made their intentions clear in the final game of the regular season. They preferred to take their chances in a playoff rematch against Sanchez rather than face Texans gunslinger Matt Schaub.

The Bengals, who get two injured starters -- defensive tackle Domata Peko and free safety Chris Crocker -- back for the playoffs, believe they can contain New York's vaunted running attack and cause Sanchez to make mistakes by throwing the ball sooner than he wants.

Like the Jets on Sunday night, the Bengals will have a stadium full of passionate fans behind them. But that won't bother the confident Jets, who have exactly what you need come playoff time --- a great defense, a great rushing attack and momentum. Take Jets.

Philadelphia at Dallas (-3.5)

Last week: Eagles lost to Cowboys 24-0.

The Cowboys have a wretched streak of 12 consecutive seasons without a playoff win. The only way to end this streak is to beat their nemesis Philadelphia. The Cowboys already have beaten Philadelphia twice this season, but it won't be easy to beat the Eagles a third time.

The matchup remains the same: The Cowboys have the better defense, and the Eagles have the better offense. The difference: The Cowboys' defense has a bigger edge on the Eagles' offense than the Eagles' defense has on the Cowboys' offense. Dallas has scored at least 20 points in each game this season, and the Eagles have managed just one touchdown in eight quarters against the Dallas D.

If the Eagles can't get their big-play offense untracked this week, then they have no chance to beat the Cowboys. DeSean Jackson has just 76 yards receiving and no touchdowns in two games against Dallas. Donovan McNabb has one touchdown and two interceptions against Dallas, and running backs LeSean McCoy and Brian Westbrook essentially have been non-factors.

The Cowboys are playing with a confidence they have rarely displayed in the last decade. They're starting fast and letting their defense dictate the game. It's up to Philadelphia to match their intensity.

Perhaps overanxious to make plays with a division title at stake last week, Eagles receivers dropped at least five passes and McNabb lost a fumble when he couldn't handle a low snap. The receivers must make routine catches Saturday night, especially on third downs, to move the chains and keep Dallas' defense on its heels.

Jackson, among the best big-play receivers in the game, has five 100-yard games and nine touchdowns, but he has been a non-factor in two games against Dallas. Eagles coach Andy Reid must design more plays that give Jackson an opportunity to make plays, and McNabb can't miss them. The Cowboys have slowed Jackson by mixing coverages man and zone as well as occasionally giving their cornerbacks deep help and also using some bump-and-run.

Westbrook's return has thrown off the running game. Leonard Weaver and McCoy, who carried the load while Westbrook missed seven games from concussions, only carried the ball twice last week for 6 yards combined. They must be more involved Saturday night, and the coaches must keep the offense balanced.

In two games against Dallas, McNabb has completed fewer than 60 percent of his passes with virtually no impact. Part of the reason is the Cowboys have kept him in the pocket, sacking him seven times and keeping him from extending drives and making big plays out of chaos with his legs. The Cowboys can keep him contained because nose tackle Jay Ratliff does a good job of penetrating up the middle, stopping McNabb from stepping up into the pocket. Pressure from outside linebackers Anthony Spencer and DeMarcus Ware keep him hemmed in.

QB Tony Romo threw 34 passes last week against Philadelphia and rarely was touched. That's among the reasons he finished with 311 yards passing and two touchdowns and a bevy of completions of 20-plus yards. No way will the Eagles let him sit in the pocket and take his time Saturday. Philadelphia will unleash every blitz it has in hopes of making Romo make bad decisions under duress. They sacked him four times in the Nov. 8 game, which Dallas needed a fourth-quarter TD pass from Romo to Miles Austin to win.

The Eagles' defense is small up front, especially when using nickel personnel and bringing in defensive ends to play tackle. The Cowboys used that to their advantage last week as Marion Barber and Felix Jones steamrolled the Eagles for 182 yards rushing and took advantage of a massive offensive line that plowed its way downfield. Eagles defenders must shed blocks faster and swarm to the ball.

Beating a team three times in one season is difficult, but it's not nearly the super human feat we're led to believe. Dallas has yielded one touchdown to Philadelphia and its high-scoring offense in eight quarters. There's no reason to think that will change in Game 3. With a beat up offensive line, Philadelphia will find it difficult to keep the pass rush at bay. Wins over New Orleans and convincing victory over Philadelphia last week to win the NFC East have the Cowboys feeling confident. Take Cowboys.

Baltimore at New England (-3.5)

Last week: Ravens beat Raiders 21-13; Patriots lost to Texans 34-27.

Can the Patriots overcome the loss of Wes Welker, the NFL's leading receiver? The sight of Welker crying into his towel on the sidelines last Sunday, his knee torn to bits, is something that will stick with Patriots fans. Can one of the most prolific offenses still function? Tom Brady & Co. will move on and click again, but it won't be easy.

Can the Ravens upset the handicappers? Few experts are picking the Ravens. Baltimore, the No. 6 seed in the AFC, has the near-impossible task of trying to be the first team to hand Brady a home playoff loss; he's 8-0 in home playoff games. Sound impossible? Perhaps you didn't hear Ravens cornerback Domonique Foxworth officially declare the Patriots "beatable." Baltimore did turn in two upset playoff wins last year.

The Patriots' season has been imperfect in many ways. Fourth-quarter leads have evaporated, the invincible Brady has been inconsistent as he battles injuries to his ribs and ring finger, and the secondary has a propensity for allowing big plays. Yet still, it's the Patriots. Three rings. Belichick and Brady. Mystique. They might not be the machine of years past, but you might not want to stop watching.

Raven QB Joe Flacco struggled in the second half of the season, especially in the last two games. New England cornerbacks Darius Butler and Leigh Bodden are suspect, so the Ravens will have opportunities to throw downfield. If Flacco is on, the Ravens have a chance to pull the upset. If he is hot, the Ravens could win big.

In big games this season, the Ravens have self-destructed with penalties. The Ravens, especially on the defensive side of the ball, are infamous for late hits and unsportsmanlike conduct penalties that keep opponents' drives alive. The Ravens were the third-most penalized team in the league. To beat New England, the Ravens must be on their best behavior, especially in Foxborough, where Belichick gets a lot of home cooking.

The Steelers and Raiders blitzed the Ravens often in the last two games, so the Patriots will employ the same game plan and blitz a lot off the perimeter. The Ravens must do a better job in recognition, especially Flacco, because he must make the hot reads. The Ravens' offensive linemen also have been slow to make decisions on which players needed to chip block (tight ends or running backs) or if the guards needed to pull.

The Patriots thrived in the Week 4 game against Baltimore, in part, because Brady kept the ball away from the dynamic Ed Reed. Reed has battled injury issues and won't be 100 percent Sunday. He'll still be strong enough to play mind games with Brady, and it'll be easier without Welker. Brady must locate Reed on every play and steer clear.

As if it's not enough pressure to be the receiver handed Welker's job, his replacement Julian Edelman is just a rookie who played quarterback in college. And it's the playoffs. To ease Edelman into the biggest day of his life, Patriots coaches must hold his hand. To start, simple is the way to go. Make it easy. If Edelman does half of what Welker did, the offense will have a big day.

For all the Patriots' flaws, most seem to evaporate at home. They haven't allowed any late comebacks, and their running game looks to be able to hang with the best -- in Gillette Stadium. All that will be important. Just as evident is how much they will need to pressure quarterback Joe Flacco, who is looking beaten down and weary during the second half of the season.

This is the time to attack him. And thanks to a newly improved pass rush led by Tully Banta-Cain and Derrick Burgess, they can. But most importantly, during a season that includes Tom Brady's return from a knee injury, there is no way it'll end in a whimper at home. Patriots by a field goal. Take Ravens.

Green Bay at Arizona (-2.5)

Last week: Packers beat Cardinals 33-7.

The Packers pounded the Cardinals in two meaningless games; one in preseason and again in the season finale. Last week, Cardinals coach Ken Whisenhunt pulled most of his starters after the first quarter while the Packers' starters played through three quarters. The result was a 33-7 victory by Green Bay. The Cardinals aren't attaching any significance to it, since they didn't game plan for the contest or use front-line players. At full strength, can the Cardinals change the result this week?

Can Cardinals protect the quarterback? The key to stopping the Cardinals is pressuring Kurt Warner with a minimal blitzing. Last week, Packers outside linebacker Clay Matthews beat right tackle Levi Brown in the first quarter. If the Packers can bring pressure from the edge, the Cardinals are in trouble. Packers cornerback Charles Woodson is smart and athletic and can make plays on passes thrown under duress.

How will the Cardinals pass defense hold up? The Packers have a lot of weapons in quarterback Aaron Rodgers, a solid corps of receivers and running back Ryan Grant. The Cardinals must pressure Rodgers with a variety of blitzes. In last week's game, Packers receivers dominated Arizona's cornerbacks. It's hard to say if that means anything since the Cardinals played backups most of the day.

It's not a given that you can beat Warner with the blitz. He's quick to read defenses and quick to throw. He can anticipate where the open man is, and his throws are deadly accurate. The key to pressuring him is inside blitzes, make him aware that it's coming at him. Because Warner doesn't have much mobility, he can't buy much extra time. The Packers have to get a lot of hits on him and disrupt his timing with receivers.

Charles Woodson's strength has been roaming the middle of the field in nickel situations and offering run support or blitz help. He's a big reason the run defense is as good as it has been. On Sunday, however, he must devote his time to covering Arizona wide receiver Larry Fitzgerald. The best candidate to replace Woodson as the rover is linebacker Brandon Chillar. He can cover tight ends and backs, is a good blitzer and is big enough to have some impact in the running game.

The Packers like to play bump-and-run coverage with Woodson, and Larry Fitzgerald has improved at escaping jams in recent years. The Cardinals need to get Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin, if able to play through a high ankle sprain and a sprained knee, matched up with the Packers' nickel and dime backs. If that happens, the Cardinals will make some big plays.

The Cardinals must keep the Packers' outside rushers honest and make them play the run. The Cardinals' running game improved greatly over the last half of the season, and Beanie Wells gives them a big-play threat they've lacked for years.

When they've struggled this season, the Cardinals have committed turnovers in the first half against Indianapolis, Carolina and San Francisco. The running backs, Tim Hightower and Wells, have ended promising drives with fumbles early in games. The Cardinals must be productive on offense early, because the Packers are going to score some points.

The Packers won seven of their last eight games, and a case could be made that they are playing as well as any team in the NFC. The Cardinals enter the playoffs this year with much more confidence than last season, when they caught fire in the postseason. The club seems quietly confident it can have success against Green Bay, although they failed to prove that in two games this year, the preseason and the season finale. Take Packers.

 

By: Aengus Moorehead @ 11:06 | Category: Football  | Comments: 0 | Permalink

Week 17

January 2 2010 @ 11:18

Greetings Lasses and Lads.

My record against the spread:

Last week: 9-7.

Season: 121-119.

 

Philadelphia at Dallas (-2.5)

Last week: Eagles beat Broncos 30-27; Cowboys beat Redskins 17-0.

Does it really get any better than this? Philadelphia on the road in Dallas with the NFC East title at stake.

Last year, with Dallas needing a victory in the final game to get into the playoffs, the Eagles embarrassed the Cowboys 44-6. Now, the Cowboys have an opportunity to exact revenge.

One could make the case that this game involves two of the NFC's three hottest teams, with Green Bay being the third. Philadelphia, which typically peaks this time of the year, has won six consecutive games since losing to Dallas in November. The Cowboys gave New Orleans its first loss and shut out Washington last week.

The Eagles' quick-strike offense gives them the ability to score from anywhere on the field. Andy Reid is a master at creating mismatches and confusion whether with misdirection or bunch formations. He's a daring play-caller -- sometimes he takes too many risks -- and it's Donovan McNabb's ability to take advantage of one or two of the opportunities created by Reid that are often the difference.

But the Cowboys are playing terrific team defense. The Giants are the only team to score more than 21 points against Dallas this season, and when Dallas faced Philadelphia earlier this season, the Cowboys held Philadelphia below its season averages in points and yards.

The Cowboys' blitz has come alive in the past two weeks, with Dallas totaling three sacks in each of its past three games. Outside LBs Anthony Spencer and DeMarcus Ware have combined for five sacks in the past four games. Spencer and Ware are fast off the edges and threaten to disrupt McNabb's timing, especially on five-step drops, if they're not picked up.

Thanks to their explosive offense, the Eagles have outscored opponents 99-50 in the first half during their six-game win streak. If they can jump on Dallas early and set the pace in a game that will decide the NFC East champion, it'll quiet the home crowd and put all the pressure on the Cowboys. Pressure usually leads to pressing, which often results in mistakes.

In the biggest game of the season, the Eagles need to get the ball to their best playmaker. WR DeSean Jackson has receiving touchdowns in five straight games, one shy of tying a club record. He only had two receptions for 29 yards against Dallas in the first matchup -- his third-fewest receiving yards of the season. The Eagles can't let the Cowboys take Jackson out of the game and expect to win.

Indeed, with all due respect to Cowboy WR Miles Austin, Jackson is the best big-play threat in the league. He's averaging 18.9 yards per catch and has scored nine touchdowns. He has 17 receptions of 20 yards or more and 10 of more than 40. The Eagles do a good job of creating mismatches with him, and he has so much speed that he just once he has a step on his opponent, he's gone. He caught only two passes for 29 yards in the first meeting between these teams, which is one reason the Eagles scored just 16 points. The Cowboys won't be afraid to double him because they trust CBs Mike Jenkins and Terrence Newman in one-on-one situations.

C Jamaal Jackson, who had started 71 consecutive games at center for the Eagles, is out for the season. That means Nick Cole, who had been the left guard, will move to center. This could be disastrous, because he'll make his debut against Jay Ratliff, one of the league's best nose guards. Cole must handle Ratliff's quickness to keep him from being a disruptive force up the middle and send McNabb scrambling into the arms of Ware or Spencer. Cole will also be responsible for make the protection calls and other adjustments critical to the offense functioning effectively.

Earlier this season, the Cowboys' owned short-yardage situations, especially with Marion Barber carrying the ball. They converted 10 of 11. But they've struggled lately in those situations. Two weeks ago, Barber was stopped three times from the one by San Diego. Last week against the Redskins, the Cowboys failed to convert twice on third-and-1 and once on fourth-and-1. The blame has been equally dispersed between Barber, the offensive line and offensive coordinator Jason Garrett.

The Cowboys are feeling better about themselves than at any other point of the season. Also, the pressure of making the playoffs is off. They're home and playing a team that humiliated them last season. They have every reason to make a statement. For once, the wine-and-cheese crowd at Cowboys Stadium will be hyped from the opening kickoff. This will have a playoff feel to it. Take Cowboys.

Kansas City at Denver (-12.5)

Last week: Chiefs lost to Bengals 17-10; Broncos lost to Eagles 30-27.

The Broncos still have playoff hopes, even after they gave away control of their own destiny with three straight losses. Although there are scenarios in which the Broncos get in with a loss, the most realistic chance they have is to win and get some help. Missing the playoffs after starting 6-0, with a 3 1/2-game lead in the AFC West, would make for a very long offseason.

The Broncos also need a win to feel good about making progress this season. Last year, an 8-8 record with a historic collapse cost Mike Shanahan his job. The Broncos are 2-7 since their great start, and an 8-8 finish would be very unsatisfying to a new regime. A 9-7 season without a playoff berth wouldn't be ideal, but it would be better than finishing on a four-game losing streak.

The Chiefs have nothing tangible to play for, but going into the offseason with a win and crushing their division rival's playoff hopes would be a nice way to send off a poor season. Kansas City did not win in December. One of the Chiefs' losses in that stretch was an uncompetitive 44-13 loss to the Broncos. Getting some payback for that loss has to be on their minds.

The Broncos committed three turnovers at Kansas City in Week 13. The Chiefs converted those turnovers into 10 of their 13 points. Kansas City won't be able to move the ball consistently against Denver's strong defense Sunday, so they'll have to again take advantage if they can force the Broncos into multiple turnovers.

Denver's 245 yards rushing were a key in their blowout win at Arrowhead Stadium. Though the Bengals ran for 144 against the Chiefs last week, Kansas City limited the big plays and made them earn every yard. The Chiefs again might have to commit to stopping the run foremost and thus leave cornerback Brandon Flowers man-to-man against Denver wide receiver Brandon Marshall, but the fiery wide-out is out of Sunday’s caper hence alleviating the pressure on the front line.

The Broncos forced Chiefs QB Matt Cassel into his worst game of the season (10-of-29 passing, 84 yards, two interceptions) last time these teams met. The Chiefs can take pressure off Cassel by giving the ball frequently to Jamaal Charles, their best offensive player. While the Broncos have played consistently well against the pass, they have shown weakness at times against a determined running attack.

There are plenty of reasons for the Broncos to come out flat Sunday. There's a good chance even a win won't save their playoff hopes. For the first time all year, the Broncos don't control their own destiny and it will be Coach Josh McDaniels' job to make sure Denver focuses on what it can control, which is winning.

In each of the last three games, the Broncos had a chance to pull out a late win but let the game slip away. The team had a physical training camp, and while nobody has said that is a reason for the late-season slide, it could be a factor. No matter the reason, the Broncos have to make a game-winning play in the fourth quarter if the situation arises.

After Denver blew a game at home against the Raiders two weeks ago, it's tough to completely discount the chance that the Chiefs will play a spoiler role. Still, the Broncos should be hungry and are clearly better than Kansas City. They showed that during a blowout win at Arrowhead Stadium less than a month ago, when they ran the ball at will and completely stifled the Chiefs' offense. If Denver can stay focused and not let the Chiefs stick around early, the Broncos should get a much-needed victory but without Marshall, the Chiefs keep it close. Take points and Chiefs.

Pittsburgh at Miami (PK)

Last week: Steelers beat Ravens 23-20; Dolphins lost to Texans 27-20.

The Dolphins and the Steelers will both need plenty of help to return to the postseason -- but neither team has been mathematically eliminated just yet. In order to pick up an AFC Wildcard berth, the first part of the equation for each team is simple: They need to win this game. From there, the Dolphins need losses from the Jets, the Ravens, the Texans and the Jaguars. And the Steelers will be rooting for a combination of losses from the Texans and the Jets, the Texans and the Ravens or the Ravens, the Jets and the Broncos. But for the sake of limiting confusion, it's still much simpler: The only way either team will have a chance begins with a win Sunday.

Safety Troy Polamalu has already been forced to miss 10 games in an injury-riddled season. It remains to be seen whether he'll also miss his 11th. Last week, it appeared Polamalu's knee was nearly to the point when he could play against the Ravens, but the team decided to keep him sidelined yet again. Whether the team decides to play him against the Dolphins remains to be seen. If they do, it will be interesting to see whether Polamalu can shake the rust of his time away quickly enough to make an impact. The Dolphins surely hope not, since their passing game isn't exactly on fire right now to begin with.

The Dolphins are still trying to maintain motivation based on the possibility that they could still make the playoffs. But with four other teams needing to lose Sunday, it's not exactly a prospect that's providing a great deal of inspiration. The Dolphins should still have plenty of reason to be motivated, if not only because of the future of the organization. There are many young players -- guys who are expected to be impact players on this team for years to come -- who need as much valuable game experience as they can get. So Sunday will be an important day for quarterback Chad Henne, rookie cornerbacks Vontae Davis and Sean Smith, nose tackle Paul Soliai, defensive end Randy Starks and a number of other players who want to show they belong on the field this year as well as next year.

Even without Ronnie Brown, the Dolphins have continued to feature one of the best rush offenses in the league behind Ricky Williams. That will be a problem for the Steelers, whose rush defense has faltered. They have allowed 171 and 175 yards rushing in two of the past three games, the highest totals they have yielded this season.

The Steelers have put even more emphasis on throwing the past couple of weeks, which is a byproduct of having a suspect defense that has trouble protecting leads. The Dolphins have allowed 16 pass plays of 40 yards or longer (tied for the league high) and 54 plays of 20 yards or more (tied for third most in the league). Expect the pass-happy trend to continue.

Only a month ago, the Dolphins were having significant issues closing out games, as evidenced by the fact they'd already allowed more points in the fourth quarter than any team in franchise history. Now, over the past two weeks at least, they're having trouble getting started. A week ago, the Dolphins got behind 27-0 against Houston before staging a comeback the fell short. If Miami wants to have a chance against the Steelers, it will have to come out of the gate with intensity and purpose.

For those who doubt inside linebacker Channing Crowder's impact, consider what happened Sunday when he suffered a foot injury during the first defensive series. Miami's run defense crumbled and the communication within the unit was poor. Crowder is a field general for the defense, and considering he won't be able to play Sunday against the Steelers, it's time for somebody else to take on the role. Reggie Torbor will take Crowder's place at inside linebacker, but Akin Ayodele likely will be the voice of the defense. This shapes up as another tough day for Miami's run defense.

The Dolphins started fast early in the season. Now, they're coming out completely flat. Whatever the problem is, Miami is scrambling to find its identity as the final game approaches. Even with a win Sunday, the Dolphins won't likely make the playoffs because of all the help they need. It would still be nice for the sake of something to build on to put together a complete game. If the Dolphins can do that, it would at least prove they are capable of the feat, something that hasn't been the case often this season. .

It's hard to imagine either of these teams making the playoffs, considering how much help both squads will need even if they win. But the Dolphins and the Steelers are two gritty teams that surely won't quit, which should still make this a fun battle to watch regardless of its implications. However, with linebacker Channing Crowder out of this game with a foot injury, the Dolphins' defense will be in a situation that's going to cause some severe difficulties slowing down the Steelers' offense. At full strength, this game could easily go either way. Without Crowder, the Steelers get the edge. Take Steelers.

NY Giants at Minnesota (-8.5)

Last week: Giants lost to Panthers 41-9; Vikings lost to Bears 36-30.

The Vikings, losers of three of their past four games, are playing their worst football of the season. They have one last chance during the regular season to regain some momentum.

They're coming off back-to-back losses to teams with losing records, and after the 36-30 overtime setback at Chicago, the only good news for them is that their next game is at home. The Vikings are 7-0 at home this season and are matched up with a New York Giants team that was eliminated from the playoffs last week.

The Giants might not have much motivation for this game, and that could compound their problems on the field. New York is allowing an average of 25.5 points a game, which ranks 28th in the NFL. That includes an embarrassing 41-9 loss at home last week to Carolina.

Playing the Giants next might be just what the Vikings need to get back on track before the playoffs start.

Carolina's Jonathan Stewart was able to run for 206 yards against the Giants, and that could be a sign of things to come for Vikings running back Adrian Peterson. He's gone six consecutive games without topping 100 yards, the longest streak of his career. It's important to get Peterson's confidence re-established after he fumbled in overtime against Chicago and the Bears scored on the next play to send Minnesota home with a loss.

The Giants were so embarrassed following their 41-9 loss to the Panthers in their final game at Giants Stadium that Tom Coughlin and Eli Manning made public apologies to the fans. The Giants haven't closed out a season playing a game out of playoff contention since the end of the 2004 season and it remains to be seen how much fight and passion they will have as they near the end of a highly-disappointing year with a road game against a motivated, playoff-bound opponent.

Consistent pressure on the quarterback has been an ongoing problem for the Giants, who have only 32 sacks this season. After griping about his playing time vs. the Panthers, figure DE Osi Umenyiora gets some extra time on the field and if he does he will try to use his speed rush to get around LT Bryant McKinnie, who is coming off rough outings against Julius Peppers and also against the Bears. Umenyiora leads the Giants with seven sacks and desperately wants a strong finish to a very frustrating season.

The Giants' injury-ridden and talent-starved secondary has been ravaged for big plays all season and the Vikings can definitely add to those woes with Sidney Rice and rookie Percy Harvin. It looks as if CBs Corey Webster (knee) and Aaron Ross (hamstring) will again be sidelined, giving the Vikings a huge advantage against undersized reserve corners Kevin Dockery and Bruce Johnson. For the Giants to have a chance, second-year CB Terrell Thomas — one of the more consistent players for the Giants but coming off a poor game vs. Carolina — is going to have to play at an exceptionally high level.

The Vikings have tried to force feed Adrian Peterson the ball lately, and it hasn't worked. He's been stuffed by opposing defenses who are focused on stopping him. That trend continued against Chicago in the first half. But the Vikings' offense came to life when Brett Favre got the passing game going, which opened room for Peterson on the ground. They need to continue throwing the ball to loosen up defenses and find room for Peterson to run.

Struggling CB Antoine Winfield isn't 100 percent healthy, and that's a major problem moving forward with the playoffs around the corner. The Vikings might have to consider resting him against the Giants. That could potentially give him two weeks to rest if the Vikings secure a first-round playoff bye. Then he could come back and perform at the level before he missed six games with a fractured right foot. Right now, Winfield is a liability, as he's showed the past two weeks, getting torched by Carolina's Steve Smith and then giving up the game-winning TD to Chicago's Devin Aromashodu.

When the Vikings were at their best en route to a 10-1 start this season, they won the battles up front on the offensive and defensive lines. That's not happening any more. Teams are sending extra help against DE Jared Allen, minimizing his pressure on quarterbacks. And the offensive line isn't performing well, giving up seven sacks in the past two games, while not providing many holes for Peterson. That has to change.

The Vikings have one game left in the regular season to try to fix their problems that have been exposed in recent weeks. And if they can't figure out how to avoid slow starts on offense early in games, cut down on the big plays allowed by the defense, and be more physical along the offensive line, their postseason run could be limited to one game.

The Giants have a chance to play the spoiler role, but with their playoff hopes dead, there's reason to question whether they're up to the task. Look for the Vikings to bounce back at home in the Metrodome, where their defense plays so much better. They win but Giants cover. Take points and Giants.

Cincinnati at NY Jets (-9.5)

Last week: Bengals beat Chiefs 17-10; Jets beat Colts 29-15.

Can the Jets get into the playoffs? All they need is a victory, and for the second straight week, they are facing a team that is expected to pull its starters before the game is over. If the Jets can beat the Bengals, they will make the playoffs for the fifth time in the last nine seasons, and this is the seventh time this decade in which they have had a playoff spot on the line on the regular season’s final Sunday.
 
How will the Bengals play it? A la Indianapolis coach Jim Caldwell last week, Cincinnati coach Marvin Lewis played it coy Monday about who will play and for how long, admitting that results earlier in the day could affect his mindset. The AFC North champion Bengals are guaranteed a home playoff game no matter what happens, but QB Carson Palmer indicated Monday he thinks the offense needs to be sharper and he wants to play to get ready for the playoffs.
 
It’s the final game at Giants Stadium. No, it’s never been as storied as, say, Soldier Field or Lambeau Field, but it did serve as home to the Giants for 34 seasons and to the Jets for 26. The Giants didn’t exactly finish their tenure well with an embarrassing loss to Carolina, so it’s up to the Jets to give their home fans something to celebrate in the final game there.

This game has a different feel because the Bengals have already been crowned AFC North champs and the Jets need a win to get in the playoffs. The Bengals are a physically, mentally and emotionally drained squad forced to fight through the Dec. 17 death of wide receiver Chris Henry. The offense won’t reveal anything exotic because the Bengals could wind up hosting the Jets on Wild Card Weekend. Don’t be surprised if Lewis pulls some of his key starters in the third quarter. As much as the Bengals would like to have momentum going into the playoffs, they need a break and need to get fresh for the postseason.

The Bengals are a running team that relies on defense, but there are signs the passing game is slowly coming to life. Palmer continues to work to get wide receivers Laveranues Coles, Andre Caldwell and Quan Cosby more involved to take the heat off Chad Ochocinco. Backup running back Larry Johnson should get more carries because it’s critical for starter Cedric Benson to be at the top of his game once the playoffs begin.

If the Bengals truly want to win the game, they need to match the physicality of the Jets, who will throw every kind of stunt and blitz scheme at them. The Bengals have been good at fighting through adversity and staying calm. That kind of maturity has served them well through a turbulent, roller-coaster season.

The numbers don’t lie. In games in which they have more takeaways than their opponents, the Jets are 7-0, including their win over the tanking Indianapolis Colts on Sunday. And they are 0-5 in games in which they have more giveaways. QB Mark Sanchez must play under control, as he did against Indy, when he erred on the side of caution instead of throwing some passes where they could’ve been picked off.
 
Say this about the Jets in their tainted win over the Colts--they continued to play hard, if not harder, when Indianapolis rested its offensive starters in the third quarter. Perhaps they did that because they knew they had the advantage at that point. Whatever the case, they need to bring it for four quarters even if the Bengals do not.

Coach Rex Ryan has pushed the right motivational buttons with this team lately, and must do so again Sunday. Most pundits are expecting potentially motivation-less Cincinnati to be a no-show, much as Indianapolis was in the last 20 minutes against the Jets, and are thus conceding the Jets a playoff spot before the opening coin toss.

The Jets cannot fall into that mindset, because Cincy backup QB J.T. O’Sullivan (nine NFL TD passes, 13 picks) at least has some experience, unlike Indy’s deer-in-the-headlights rookie Curtis Painter. A healthy dose of Thomas Jones runs and mistake-free play by Sanchez gives the Jets the win, but barely. Take points and Bengals.

Indianapolis at Buffalo (-8.5)

Last week: Colts lost to Jets 29-15; Bills lost to Falcons 31-3.

Colts Coach Jim Caldwell took a lot of heat from fans and media for pulling his starters so early last week and costing the team a chance at a perfect season. It's doubtful he will be swayed by public opinion on Sunday, especially with nothing to play for and the fear of losing important players to injury.

If the Colts try just a little bit, they could still win this game because the Bills are ready for the season to be over. But it's doubtful the Colts will care about the outcome. Beating the Colts at full strength would be a whole lot more meaningful than beating a bunch of backups, but the Bills will take a win any way they can get it. Take points and Colts.

New Orleans at Carolina (-8.5)

Last week: Saints lost to Buccaneers 20-17; Panthers beat Giants 41-9.

This game may come down to how much the Saints want to win. They've played some sloppy games in losing to Dallas and Tampa Bay, and need to sharpen the blade before heading into an off week and then the divisional playoffs.

The Panthers present a playoff-caliber defense, so it makes sense to let Brees and Co. play some, if only to try to regain some of their previous polish. Defensively, the Saints might not see a rushing attack like this in the playoffs, and the Panthers haven't been taking many chances in the air. Take Panthers.

Jacksonville at Cleveland (-1.5)

Last week: Jaguars lost to Patriots 35-7; Browns beat Raiders 23-9.

The Jaguars and Browns aren't so far apart in the quality of their seasons. The Jaguars have won three more games, but they are slumping. The Browns have played a substantially stronger schedule, and they have won three straight games in December for the first time since 1987.

The Jaguars looked like a mess last week against the Patriots. The Browns ended a 12-game losing streak to their rival, Pittsburgh, and have been on a high ever since. The Jaguars still have an outside chance at the playoffs, but the Browns are at home, playing to keep the Mangini regime intact. The momentum is on Cleveland's side, big-time but the Jags have much more on the line. Take Jaguars.

Chicago at Detroit (+2.5)

Last week: Bears beat Vikings 36-30; Lions lost to 49ers 20-6.

Regardless of who plays quarterback, the Lions can't find a way to score with any consistency, and that's not going to change in the season's final week. The offensive line can't get it together, and the team doesn't have any weapons other than Johnson.

The Bears have to play this smart and not take risks trying to win the game; all they have to do is stay out of the Lions' way and allow them to find a way to lose it. It might take a while, but Detroit will eventually self-destruct. Take Bears.

New England at Houston (-7.5)

Last week: Patriots beat Jaguars 35-7; Texans beat Dolphins 27-20.

If Belichick rests players like Brady, Moss and Welker, the Texans should win handily. If not, it could be close. The Texans haven't lost by more than eight points since the opening game.

Their offense has been able to move the ball against everybody, and their defense has been outstanding against the run. This game means much more to the Texans than the Patriots. Take Texans.

San Francisco at St-Louis (+6.5)

Last week: 49ers beat Lions 20-6; Rams lost Cardinals 31-10.

The Rams have beaten one team all year, when they dropped the Detroit Lions in Week 8. They have not scored over 20 points since Week 10 and they have allowed 30 points or more six times this season.

With a win, the 49ers will reach the .500 mark but when you look at their past 15 games, they have really been blown out one time (45-10 against the Falcons). The first encounter between these two was a 35-6 thrashing by the Niners. Look for San Francisco to do the same. Take 49ers.

Atlanta at Tampa Bay (+1.5)

Last week: Falcons beat Bills 31-3; Buccaneers beat Saints 20-17.

The Bucs and Falcons have nothing but pride and jobs to play for now, but this game is still worth a look because it offers even casual fans the chance to watch two of the game's most promising young quarterbacks.

The Bucs are on a roll but they're not even sure themselves if they're just hot or if they've really turned the corner; how about neither. Take Falcons.

Green Bay at Arizona (-2.5)

Last week: Packers beat Seahawks 48-10; Cardinals beat Rams 31-10.

It's hard to predict this one because the clubs might face each other the following week. That changes personnel and game-planning decisions. But the Cardinals are at home and the Packers have less to play for. Coach Mike McCarthy likely will hold some things back. The Cardinals starters will play enough to stay in rhythm. Take Cardinals.

Baltimore at Oakland (+10.5)

Last week: Ravens lost to Steelers 23-20; Raiders lost to Browns 23-9.

The Ravens have far more to gain with a victory than the Raiders, a team to which they are superior offensively and defensively. The Raiders have shown that they can beat some of the league's top-tier teams -- they have victories over the Eagles, Bengals, Broncos and Steelers -- but upsetting a team on the verge of a playoff berth is too much to ask for a Raiders team fresh from a lopsided loss to the Cleveland Browns.

The Ravens will jump to early lead, milk the clock behind the running of Ray Rice and rely upon their defense to keep the Raiders from mounting a comeback. Take Ravens.

Washington at San Diego (-3.5)

Last week: Redskins lost to Cowboys 17-0; Chargers beat Titans 42-17.

The Chargers coaches and players on the field will be trying to win, but their main hope will be to get out of Sunday with everyone healthy and having gotten some good experience. Thing is, the Chargers have played so many people and those people have played so well, they are capable of handling the Redskins.

Washington has lost five of six, but it won at Oakland, took New Orleans to overtime and beat Denver in the final half of the season. Nevertheless, take Chargers.

Tennessee at Seattle (+4.5)

Last week: Titans lost to Chargers 42-17; Seahawks lost to Packers 48-10.

Tennessee is the only team in the league that has yet to play at Qwest Field, which is considered one of the loudest stadiums in the league. A lot of the noise will be directed at the Seahawks this week, though. Seattle has lost three in a row by a combined 106-24.

The Titans are 7-2 since making Young their starting QB. Only two teams have better records in that time: the Chargers (9-0) and the Colts (8-1). The Titans will continue their roll. Take Titans.

 

 

 

 

By: Aengus Moorehead @ 11:18 | Category: Football  | Comments: 0 | Permalink