Super Bowl LVIII

January 31 2009 @ 18:47

Super Bowl

MY RECORD AGAINST THE SPREAD

Two weeks ago: 1-1

Season: 140-126

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Arizona Cardinals (6.5)

Where: Raymond James Stadium. Tampa, Florida.

When: Kick off at 6:28 p.m. ET on NBC.

This might not be a Super Bowl full of marquee names, but it is a game chock full of intrigue.

Will the Cardinal’s Kurt Warner or Steeler’s Ben Roethlisberger join Tom Brady as the only active quarterbacks with multiple Super Bowl rings? Warner torched the Eagles' blitz with his quick release but now has to face Pittsburgh zone-blitz master Dick LeBeau, who has more natural pass-rush talent to send at Warner. Roethlisberger seemingly always finds a way to elude pressure and connect on passes in key situations.

Will the Cardinals' Ken Whisenhunt or Steelers' Mike Tomlin join Bill Belichick and Tom Coughlin as the only active coaches with a Super Bowl title? Added intrigue involves the two head coaches plus Cardinals assistant head coach/offensive line coach Russ Grimm. Whisenhunt and Grimm, both former Steelers assistants, were finalists for the Steelers' head coaching job that went to Tomlin after Bill Cowher walked away in '07.

Will the Steelers be able to do what no playoff team has been capable of -- contain Cardinals wide receiver Larry Fitzgerald who already has broken Jerry Rice's NFL record for receiving yards in the playoffs with 419?

Steelers wide receiver Hines Ward (knee) and Cardinals wide receiver Anquan Boldin (hamstring) both say they'll play in the Super Bowl, but how effective they'll be is unknown. The only other injury concerns involve Cardinals outside linebacker Travis LaBoy (triceps), and Steelers offensive linemen Max Starks (knee) and Darnell Stapleton (ankle). Starks and Stapleton definitely will play. LaBoy is iffy, but his loss wouldn't be devastating because Bertrand Berry has played well in his place.

The Steeler’s defense's No. 1 priority – stopping Fitzgerald --- something they have been able to do with many of the league's top receivers this season. The Steelers have used cornerback Ike Taylor to shadow top receivers because Taylor is tall, fast and athletic. But they also rotate their coverages to use a safety to prevent deep passes.

It's unlikely the Steelers will use heavy blitz pressure on Warner -- at least, not early -- because of his quick drops and releases. Instead, they will give him a variety of looks, especially with strong safety Troy Polamalu to get him to force throws into coverage.

The Steelers success will depend on Roethlisberger, especially if the team has problems running the ball against the Cardinals. He has been making all the big plays and all the big throws in the postseason and has been very comfortable on the big stage.

The Cardinals have surged in the playoffs, and it's no coincidence they've been able to run the ball successfully in that time. The numbers haven't been great, but the club has at least kept alive the threat of the run. If Edgerrin James and Tim Hightower can pick up four to six yards on first or second downs, offensive coordinator Todd Haley will have plenty of options on his call sheet.

The Cardinal’s pass protection has to hold up. Warner has had time to throw in the postseason, and he's been able to get the ball deep to Fitzgerald. Warner has been efficient against the blitz all year, and he has the weapons to make teams pay. The Cardinals have done a nice job with screens and draws recently, which has helped to slow down the rush.

The defense has greatly improved over the past month, controlling some of the best ground attacks in the league. The Steelers aren't great offensively, but Roethlisberger can make plays on the run. He's creative, and the Cardinals need to keep him in the pocket and bring him down when they get a shot.

It's no surprise the Steelers are here; it's a shock the Cardinals are. They aren't a fluke, however. You don't win three playoff games as an underdog by luck. This is a very talented offense with a number of threats, which presents numerous problems for a defense even as good as the Steelers'. Take points and Cardinals.

By: Aengus Moorehead @ 18:47 | Category: Football  | Comments: 0 | Permalink

NFL Conference Championships

January 17 2009 @ 16:17

MY RECORD AGAINST THE SPREAD

Last week: 3-1

Season: 139-125

Philadelphia at Arizona (3.5)

Venue: University of Phoenix Stadium. Glendale, Arizona.

Date: Sunday, January 18, 2009. 3:00 p.m. ET

The Cardinals are in the NFC title game for the first time, and they're playing just their second home playoff game since 1947. The other was their wild-card round victory over Atlanta two weeks ago.

The Eagles finished 9-6-1 and the Cardinals were 9-7. The Cardinals had the good fortune of playing in the NFC West, where they were able to clinch with three games remaining. The Eagles needed considerable help in the final week to even make the playoffs.

The Eagles humiliated the Cardinals, 48-20, on Thanksgiving night in Philadelphia. The Cardinals were coming off a tough loss to the Giants the previous Sunday and had to travel cross-country days later. The Eagles were desperately seeking a victory to remain in playoff contention. They jumped on the Cardinals early and the Cardinals didn't show much of a fight.

On defense, not only must the Eagles’ defensive backfield play tight coverage against the best receiving unit left in the playoffs -- and maybe the best in football -- it also needs to be aggressive and physical at the line of scrimmage in press coverage, especially against Larry Fitzgerald in their press coverage. The Cards' world-class receiver will get his catches, but the Eagles have to knock him every time and wear him out -- or else they'll get worn out.

Eagles defensive coordinator Jim Johnson will make sure to scheme against resurgent running back Edgerrin James but his top priority will be releasing the hounds against QB Kurt Warner and making sure the ageless quarterback doesn't get comfortable in the pocket. Johnson's pressure-from-everywhere schemes have confounded Warner the last two times he's faced them. Getting some push from his front four would really help Johnson's cause and allow him to keep his linebackers and safeties back in coverage.

Johnson will blitz almost anyone and from different spots. Warner wasn't sacked in the first game while throwing three touchdown passes. He also was intercepted three times. The Cardinals' blockers have been decent at handling pressure, but the Eagles present special problems.

On offense, Brian Westbrook is averaging 1.9 yards per carry in the postseason. That just won't do. The key to Philadelphia's offense is nursing ankle and knee injuries that have robbed him of his trademark explosion. Offensive coordinator Marty Mornhinweg knows Westbrook can break a long run at any moment, so he's still feeding Westbrook the ball, but Mornhinweg might have to give backup Correll Buckhalter more carries to keep Westbrook from running on empty.

The Cardinals' defense has held elite running backs in check in the team's first two playoff games. Atlanta's Michael Turner gained just 42 yards, and the Panthers, with DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart, had only 75. But Westbrook is dangerous as a runner and a receiver. He scored four touchdowns against the Cardinals earlier this year, two on the ground and two in the air.

Arizona's D-line produced them in the two playoff games; it forced two fumbles that led to points and had a sack for a safety. It needs to bring pressure against Eagles quarterback Donovan McNabb and control his scrambling.

The Eagles are on a roll, having won playoff games at Minnesota and the New York Giants. They won't be rattled by playing on the road for the NFC title; after all, they've done it before. The Cardinals have played well over the past three weeks, and they play better at home than on the road. If the defense comes through again, the Cardinals will win. This game could be decided by a field goal. Take Cardinals.

Baltimore at Pittsburgh (-5.5)

Venue: Heinz Field. Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.

Date: Sunday, January 18, 2009. 6:30 p.m. ET

There are several intriguing factors to this matchup, beyond the winner getting to advance to the Super Bowl. For starters, they are division rivals meeting for the third time this season. The Steelers won the first two games. Also, the Steelers and Ravens have the Nos. 1 and 2 ranked defenses, respectively, in the league.

What's more, there isn't another team in the league the Steelers dislike more than the Ravens, and vice versa. The series has been highlighted with trash talk and ejections over the years, not to mention vicious hits and blocks. Last year, wide receiver Hines Ward decleated safety Ed Reed and linebacker Bart Scott with such stunning blocks that Scott threatened to "kill him" in a subsequent game. It also prompted defensive end Terrell Suggs to issue a public "bounty" on Ward this year. Middle linebacker Ray Lewis ended rookie running back Rashard Mendenhall season with such a hard, albeit clean, tackle in the first meeting that Mendenhall fractured his scapula -- an injury usually associated with car accidents, not football games.

And, if none of that is enough, the Ravens have a quarterback, Joe Flacco, who reminds everyone of Ben Roethlisberger, right down to getting his team to the AFC title game as a rookie, just as Roethlisberger did in 2004.

The Ravens must shut down Pittsburgh's running game, which means stopping running back Willie Parker. The Steelers' passing game, much like the Ravens', is predicated on play action. In recent games, Parker has had little success against the Ravens, and most likely won't have much Sunday, either.

For the Ravens to succeed, they absolutely must contain Roethlisberger. He has been a Ravens killer. Because of his size, he is hard to bring down. In the two games the Ravens lost to Pittsburgh this season, Roethlisberger made big plays while scrambling late in each of those contests,

The Ravens must protect their own quarterback, Joe Flacco. The Steelers use the same basic approach on defense as the Ravens, and they love to bring pressure. The Ravens must contain the pressure off the corners, and might have to roll out Flacco more than usual.

On the ground for the Ravens they must rely on Le’Ron McLain. He rushed for 87 yards in the second meeting in Baltimore, the third-most yards allowed by the Steelers this season. The Steelers' plan is to always take away the run and force a team to become one-dimensional, which is what they did when they held the Chargers to a franchise postseason-record 15 yards rushing.

Roethlisberger did not have a turnover against the Chargers because he did not force throws into coverage and even stayed away from the big sack. He needs to continue to do that against the Ravens, particularly against big-play safety Ed Reed when there is zone coverage.

The Ravens have several bothersome injuries, most notably to Suggs and McClain, while the Steelers are as healthy as they have been since the season opener. None of that, though, has seemed to bother Flacco, who has stayed away from big mistakes on the road. But the Steelers did a good job pressuring and confusing Flacco in the last meeting and did not allow any big plays in the passing game. The return to form of running back Willie Parker brings back a dimension that has been missing from the offense -- the big run -- and it takes a lot of pressure off Roethlisberger. The Steelers will make it a clean series sweep, right to the Super Bowl, but it will be a close one. Take points and Ravens.

By: Aengus Moorehead @ 16:17 | Category: Football  | Comments: 0 | Permalink

NFL Divisional Playoffs

January 10 2009 @ 12:46

NFL Divisional Playoffs

MY RECORD AGAINST THE SPREAD

Last week: 3-1

Season: 136-124

Baltimore at Tennessee (-2.5)

The Titans and Ravens have some history, dating back to their days together in the old AFC Central. Despite the fact they don't play each other as regularly as they once did, these two teams don't especially like one another. The Titans have a chance to exorcize some old demons with a win. Back in 2000, when they also finished 13-3 and had the No. 1 seed in the AFC, the Ravens came to Nashville and squashed Tennessee's dreams en route to winning Super Bowl 35. The Ravens finished the season ranked No. 2 in total defense while the Titans finished No.7 overall. Saturday's game should be a battle of the defenses, and whichever one forces the most turnovers has a good chance of winning. The Ravens led the NFL with 34 takeaways, though the Titans intercepted 20 passes and made things happen on defense, as well. It might not be a pretty game, but it should be a close one.

Titans quarterback Kerry Collins has been down this road before. He guided two teams to the NFC Championship, and one – a loss to the Ravens -- to the Super Bowl. He has played in 6 playoff games during his 14-year career. Ravens rookie quarterback Joe Flacco meanwhile, is learning on the go. But he's off to a good start. He won his first playoff game this past weekend in Miami. Who will come out on top this weekend -- the graybeard or the kid?

On offense, the Ravens would like to turn this game into a brawl; they have to become more balanced. The Titans have too much muscle up front for the Ravens to just come in and run over them. The Ravens have to be unpredictable. They have to pass when they are expected to run, and run when they are expected to pass.

Defensively, the Ravens must shut down Tennessee's running game and make Collins beat them. Collins did so early in the season with a late fourth-quarter rally, but the Ravens want to put him in that situation again. They like the odds.

In a Week 5 matchup in Baltimore, the Titans had all kinds of trouble running the football. They managed just 47 rushing yards in the game, and rookie Chris Johnson had only 44 yards on 18 carries. In the end, Collins was able to guide the Titans to a game-winning drive. This time, the Titans need to have early success on the ground.

The Ravens intercepted Dolphins quarterback Chad Pennington four times in the playoffs' first round, and caused five turnovers in the contest. As a result, Miami never had a chance. They'll try to force the Titans into mistakes as well, something they were able to do in Week 5. Collins threw two picks in that game, though he was able to overcome it. The Titans might not be so fortunate the second time around if they turn the ball over.

Flacco has settled down as the season has progressed and isn't making the rookie mistakes he did early on. The Titans would like to change that with a defense geared to pressure him and force him into mistakes. The Titans intercepted Flacco twice in Week 5, and will likely come after him on Saturday. Flacco handled his first playoff test well in Miami, partly because he had a lead to work with and the Ravens were able to run the ball. If the Titans can stuff the run, can Flacco handle the pressure?

The Titans won more games than anyone else in the NFL this season for a reason. They played solid defense, ran the football, and veteran Kerry Collins made plays when he had to. To get to Super Bowl 43, the Titans will try to rely on that same formula. The matchup vs. the Ravens is a tough one, and even though the Titans are back at full strength on defense with the expected return of defensive tackle Albert Haynesworth and defensive end Kyle Vanden Bosch, I believe the Ravens will win the battle of the bullies. Take Ravens.

Arizona at Carolina (-9.5)

The Panthers host the Cardinals with a berth to the NFC Championship Game on the line and numerous subplots about to play out.

One question will be how the Panthers secondary is able to handle the Arizona passing game. QB Kurt Warner threw for 381 yards in the first squabble between the teams, the most the Panthers had given up prior to Drew Brees' 386 yards in his late push for Dan Marino's single-season passing record in the regular-season finale. But if wide receiver Anquan Boldin isn't able to go (hamstring), that could affect what the Cardinals are able to do with the ball.

If the Panthers continue to run the way they did during the second half of the year, it might not matter. Running back DeAngelo Williams spent November and December on a tear, and if the Cardinals can't prevent the home run, the Panthers might keep them at arm's length all day.

Arizona actually held a 17-3 third-quarter lead here in October, but the Panthers came back for the win, paced by QB Jake Delhomme and wide receiver Steve Smith. Both, particularly Delhomme, tend to save big performances for the postseason.

The Cardinals typically struggle on the road. While their win over Atlanta was sparked by a rabid home crowd, they traditionally have traveled poorly, and the fans in Charlotte are particularly lathered up after an 8-0 home record in the regular season.

Indeed, the Cardinals are 2-19 in the Eastern time zone over the past six years, including 0-5 this season. Some games have been disasters, including big losses at the Jets, Eagles and Patriots. But they played the Panthers tough in Carolina earlier this year, blowing a 14-point lead in the third quarter and losing 27-23. But since this game is at night, the trip east should be easier for the Cardinals.

In the first meeting, the Panthers loaded up to stop the run, sometimes going with goal-line personnel. So the Cardinals turned to the pass and were effective. Kurt Warner went 35 of 49 for 381 yards and two touchdowns. The Cardinals have been efficient running the ball the past two games and would like to keep that as an option on Saturday night.

After beating Arizona in Week 8, the Panthers had a bye and then three straight weeks of lackluster performances. As much as their banged up offensive and defensive lines needed their bye-week rest, the Panthers need to quickly regain the momentum they built in December.

The Panthers know Arizona will try to spread the field and throw. That makes it even more important for the Panthers to line up and mash at them when they have the ball. Carolina's been running extremely well down the stretch, and they could really use a few long drives to eat some clock and keep the ball out of Warner's hands.

The Cardinals were considered suspect by many before their Wild Card win over Atlanta, but they emerged victorious by playing physical defense and distracting QB Matt Ryan with disruptive pressure up front and new blitzes. Delhomme's seen it all, however, and tends to look his best in the postseason.

If the Panthers can get any kind of pressure on Warner (and that's hard), it will help a back seven which has given up a lot of yards lately. That'll allow the Panthers to play the kind of ball-control offense they like. The Panthers have been getting a huge lift at home, and that might make it tough for anyone to win here, but the Cardinals will keep it close. Take points and Cardinals.

Philadelphia at NY Giants (-4.5)

Whether it's early in the season or down the stretch when neither team has much to play for, Giants-Eagles always is compelling because of the dislike between the teams and the intensity that fuels this Jersey Turnpike rivalry. Twice a season these NFC East foes square off and now it's three times, which means familiarity will no doubt breed contempt. Every time, this clash brings out the hardest hits and extra shots and with the stakes so high there's no reason to think this third meeting will be any different.

If the Eagles can win this game they can rightfully make the claim that they are this year's version of the 2007 New York Giants. A year ago, the Giants squeezed into the playoffs via the wild card route then began winning road playoff games, including a rousing upset of the No. 1 seed Cowboys in Dallas. The Eagles thus far have followed a similar script and awaiting them at Giants Stadium is the No. 1 seed in the NFC. No longer thrust into the underdog role, the Giants are favored to make it back-to-back Super Bowl appearances and that is not a position they have found themselves in very often.

Eli Manning is coming off his best NFL season from a statistical standpoint and earned his first Pro Bowl selection. His performance was highly scrutinized, as everyone wanted to see how he would respond to his unexpected success during last year's playoff run, which culminated with his MVP award for Super Bowl 42. This season Manning led the Giants to a 12-4 record but he did not exactly sprint to the finish line. In his last five games, he threw only five touchdown passes and tossed three interceptions. Manning has developed a reputation for not always compiling the most impressive numbers but coming up big when the Giants need him to play big. This is one of those situations.

In each of the last four regular-season games the Giants allowed a running play of at least 30 yards for a touchdown. That downward trend started back on Dec. 7 when Brian Westbrook had a 30-yard scoring run in addition to a 40-yard catch-and-run for a touchdown in a 20-14 Eagles victory at Giants Stadium. The Giants know they can bottle up Westbrook play after play but then at any moment he can make them pay with a momentum-changing run or reception.

The first time the Giants played the Eagles this season, they ran for 219 yards and won 36-31. In the second meeting the Giants ran for only 88 yards in a 20-14 loss and did not score an offensive touchdown until the final minute. Brandon Jacobs was forced out of the second meeting after re-injuring his knee, and his presence on the field is crucial to set the physical tone the Giants want and need.

Up front, the Giants take great pride in protecting Manning, who was sacked 27 times in 479 pass attempts. The Eagles take great pride in harassing opposing quarterbacks with defensive coordinator Jim Johnson's pressure package.

These games are usually close. Take a look at the season series. The Eagles scored 51 points, the Giants 50. The Giants were far and away the better team for three-fourths of the season but in the month of December the Eagles played as well as any team in the league and certainly more consistently than the Giants.

Both sides should be healthy and there are no secrets between these fierce NFC East rivals. The Eagles should have no trouble with whatever winter weather awaits them and are never intimidated coming into Giants Stadium.

On both sides of the ball, the Giants have shown signs of slipping a bit from the high standards they set while compiling an 11-1 record. Any slippage in a game of this magnitude will not be easily overcome. The roll the Eagles are on could take them one step further, into the NFC Championship Game. Take Eagles.

San Diego at Pittsburgh (-5.5)

This is a rematch of a regular-season game, won by the Steelers, in which it marked the first time in NFL history a game ended with an 11-10 score. The game is actually known for another reason, too: A fumble return for touchdown by Troy Polamalu on the game's final play was disallowed by what was later to be acknowledged as an incorrect call. The Steelers didn't score a touchdown despite having a 300-yard passer (Ben Roethlisberger) a 100-yard receiver (Hynes Ward) and a 100-yard rusher (Willie Parker) for the only time this season. But their No. 1 defense stymied QB Philip Rivers, who had two interceptions and a passer rating of 43.6 despite coming into the game as the AFC's leading passer, and held the Chargers to 66 yards rushing on 22 attempts. The Chargers come into Heinz Field with the league's longest winning streak -- five in a row -- and have averaged 34.4 points in that span. The Steelers allowed a league-low 223 points and have surrendered just three touchdowns in their past four homes games.

Rivers' biggest improvement this year has been pocket presence, and his biggest improvement late in the season has been protecting the ball when under pressure. But like most QBs, he is most effective when given time. Last week, the Colts' pressure (and fine coverage) did not allow Rivers to go deep more than once. Another week without Vincent Jackson catching a pass might not end so well.

The Steelers won the November meeting by keeping the Chargers' offense off the field. The Chargers ran just 50 plays, including eight in the third quarter. The main problem was that the defense couldn't keep the Steelers from sustaining drives, something the Chargers were struggling with in general at that time and have fixed over the past month.

Charger running back Darren Sproles touched the ball just three times for 25 yards in the first meeting, 16 of which came on a kick return. That could change this time after what Sproles did to the Colts -- compiling 328 all-purpose yards. Not only did the Steelers rank No. 1 in the AFC in rush defense, they ranked No. 1 in kick coverage and fourth in punt coverage.

The Steelers used a lot of different looks and coverages to frustrate Rivers into his worst performance of the season. They sacked him only twice, preferring to drop more players in coverage and take away his outside receivers.

The Steelers have to take some of the pressure off Big Ben by running the ball, especially because Roethlisberger, who was sacked an NFL-high 46 times, is coming off a concussion against the Browns in Week 17. Willie Parker had 115 yards in the first meeting and didn't have another 100-yard game until the season finale against the Browns (116).

The Steelers were fortunate to win the first game, even though they dominated the Chargers in total yards (410 to 218) and time of possession (36:31 to 23:29) and didn't have a turnover. However, the Chargers are playing with more confidence than the last time they came to Heinz Field and their offense has been more explosive. But their defense is still susceptible to giving up yards and points, something the Steelers defense doesn't do. It won't be another one-pointer, but it will be close. Take points and Chargers.

By: Aengus Moorehead @ 12:46 | Category: Football  | Comments: 1 | Permalink

Wild Card Playoffs

January 2 2009 @ 16:42

MY RECORD AGAINST THE SPREAD

Last week: 9-7

Season: 133-123

Atlanta at Arizona (1.5)

Where: University of Phoenix Stadium, Glendale, Arizona.

When: Saturday, January 3. 4:30PM

The Cardinals are playing their first home playoff game since 1947. That's the year they won the NFL title. They have made only one previous playoff appearance, in 1998, since moving to Arizona more than 20 years ago. The Cardinals won their first division title since 1975 but didn't play well after clinching almost a month ago. It will be a historic game for the team, and the Cardinals could capture the imagination of Phoenix fans if they advance beyond this week.

The game will be a contrast of styles. The Cardinals love to throw and the Falcons have one of the best rushing games in the NFL. A victory likely won't validate either style as the sole way to win in the NFL, but the game will provide an interesting distinction. Defensively, the Falcons will give up some yards but they count on stopping teams in the red zone. The Cardinals have been good in the red zone all year, so it will be strength against strength.

Both franchises have been invigorated by coaching changes. Cardinals coach Ken Whisenhunt is 17-15 in his two years in Arizona. That's a pedestrian record in most cities, but it's worthy of a parade in the greater Phoenix area. He's changed just as much behind the scenes, adding a sense of professionalism and accountability that had been missing. Falcons coach Mike Smith finished 11-5 in his first season, an astounding turnaround from last year, when the Falcons went 4-12.

On the field, the Falcons must establish their running game against the Cardinals. RB Michael Turner ran for 1,699 yards in the regular season and is still running strong. Running mate Jerious Norwood appears to have recovered from a rib injury that slowed him significantly in the second half of the season. Running the ball will help the Falcons take time off the clock and help keep their secondary off the field as much as possible. The Cardinals have a solid run defense which finished 16th in the league.

Pro Bowl receiver Roddy White of the Falcons did not have more than 61 yards receiving in the final three regular-season games and had one touchdown. He must turn in an explosive game against the Cardinals. White set a team mark for most yards receiving in a season with 1,382 and scored seven touchdowns. He has to get open if the Cardinals commit eight players into the box to set up the run. White is one of the team's playmakers, but he didn't do much in wins over Tampa Bay, Minnesota and St. Louis down the stretch.

The Cardinals haven't played well early in a game since beating the Rams on Dec. 7. Against good teams, those slow starts have been devastating, and Atlanta is a good team. Kurt Warner hasn't been sharp early, and the offensive struggles seem to carry over to the defense. The Cardinals likely will try to shut down the Falcons' strength, the running game -- or at least control it. They'll take their chances with rookie quarterback Matt Ryan, although he has been effective. The run defense was spotty over the past month.

The Cardinals have been making dumb mistakes lately. Trying to pick up fumbles instead of falling on them, false starts, alignment mistakes and so on. They are talented enough to overcome those mistakes when they play bad teams. But they won't be able to overcome them against the Falcons.

The Cardinals have been looking ahead to this game, at least subconsciously, since it became apparent back in November that they were going to win the division. They have lost their last five games against teams outside the NFC West. The Falcons have shown more toughness and resiliency, and playing on the road won't affect them. Take Falcons

Baltimore at Miami (2.5)

Where: Dolphin Stadium, Miami, Florida.

When: Sunday, January 4, 1:00PM

No matter what happens Sunday, both teams' seasons will be considered successful considering the low expectations coming into the year. Just don't tell that to the players. They aren't interested in simply calling it a year just because they got to the playoffs. They now want more. For the Dolphins, after orchestrating arguably the greatest turnaround in NFL history, there's reason to believe this train may keep rolling -- even if the Ravens might look, on paper, like the better team.

Just a year ago, this same matchup had a special meaning for Miami: A win against the Ravens marked the only victory of the season, keeping the Dolphins from making history as the first 0-16 team. But on Sunday, the stakes are even bigger.

In 2001, the last time Miami made the playoffs (and also played the Ravens), the game was not televised locally because it didn't even sell out. This year? It took one day to sell every seat in Dolphin Stadium.

Perhaps as much as any Dolphins storyline this season, the Wildcat package has been spotlighted during the team's success. But against the Ravens in Week 7, it had little success. Baltimore was really the first team to shut down the direct snaps to Ronnie Brown -- which makes one wonder whether Miami will try to use it again. If it doesn't work early, don't be surprised to see the Dolphins abandon it and instead focus on working out of the base offense.

The Ravens have to control Ronnie Brown whether the Dolphins are in the Wildcat offense or their base package. As Brown goes, so goes the Dolphins. The Ravens have to be aware of Brown's cutbacks. He likes to cut back to the weak side, so the Ravens have to stay in their lanes.

For the Ravens rookie QB Joe Flacco mustn’t panic. The first-round pick out of the University of Delaware has been cool all season, but the game becomes faster and more intense in the playoffs. The Ravens have a lot of young players on offense, and the one player who can't afford to lose control is Flacco.

Indeed, Flacco has played tremendously during his rookie year. And yes, he has proven plenty capable of handling big-time pressure. Now, though, he needs to prove it on a much bigger stage, and you can expect the Dolphins to bring plenty of pressure, especially from linebacker Joey Porter.  But Porter hasn't been quite as effective lately as he was earlier this season. The Ravens will need to shift some focus away from Porter only if the rest of the defensive front can apply pressure, which is also the most probable way the sackmaster will be able to work his magic.

On defense for the  Ravens safety Ed Reed will be the best playmaker on the field. For the Dolphins to counter Reed's ability to create turnovers, Dolphin cornerback Andre Goodman must keep alive his own current hot streak. Goodman has seven pass defensed and three interceptions in the past two weeks, and his plays have been critical to Miami's success. If Goodman produces similarly in the postseason it may pay off big.

If any team that was dismal in 2008 wants reassurance that things can get better in 2009, Sunday's game between the Ravens and Dolphins should provide a clear example of hope. Both teams struggled last season -- and both were resurrected by new quarterbacks, new coaches and new cultures within the organization.

Yet, Baltimore is one of those wild-card teams that nobody wants to play. They've got a dependable defence and a rookie quarterback who plays like a veteran. The Ravens are coming off an easy win over Jacksonville. Miami had to depend on Brett Favre's propensity to self-destruct for the Jets. It will be physical and it will be close, but the Ravens shall prevail. Take Ravens

Philadelphia at Minnesota (2.5)

Where: Metrodome, Minneapolis Minnesota.

When: Sunday, January 4, 4:30PM.

The Vikings-Eagles playoff game provides plenty of story lines to watch.

Minnesota coach Brad Childress, the former Eagles offensive coordinator and quarterbacks coach, is matched up against his former boss and mentor, Philadelphia coach Andy Reid. Childress has the advantage because his team is playing at home as the higher seed (No. 3 vs. No. 6). And the Eagles are just 3-4-1 on the road this year. In the end, it will be up to Childress to show that he can out-coach Reid.

Childress has to do some of his best work in practice this week to get quarterback Tarvaris Jackson comfortable with the blitzes the Eagles are sure to throw at him. Jackson has to be a better game manager than he showed against Atlanta and the New York Giants the past two weeks.

Vikings running back Adrian Peterson has to get back on track in terms of his confidence after yet another fumble. With the exception of a 67-yard touchdown against the Giants, Peterson had just 36 yards on the other 20 carries. The Vikings need Peterson, who won the league's rushing title with 1,760 yards, at his best in the playoffs.

When the Eagles start quickly and pounce, Reid is prone to stick with the run and keep the offense balanced, which alleviates pressure from McNabb to carry the offense on his back. It's when they get down early and struggle in the trenches when Reid starts to get an itchy trigger finger in the passing game and those lopsided pass-run ratios resurface. If Brian Westbrook and Correll Buckhalter can move the chains, the offense is in good hands.

Defensively for the Eagles, coordinator Jim Johnson will preach gang tackling against the NFL's premier running back and formulate a game plan designed to throw seven and eight men at Peterson at all times. Without any receivers to fear, Johnson can bring an extra safety in the box and leave his cornerbacks alone against the Vikings' run of the mill receivers. Only five of the Eagles' 16 opponents this season totaled more than 100 rushing yards.

Playoff games are won by taking advantage of the opponent's mistakes. Vikes QB Tarvaris Jackson is the kind of quarterback who can be counted on to make a handful of poor choices, and the Eagles have to turn those miscues into turnovers, which usually creates good field position. The Eagles are plus-six in turnover ratio in their past four wins.

Jackson struggled against the heavy dose of blitzes the New York Giants brought in the regular-season finale. Now it's up to him to make the appropriate adjustments to be ready for the pressure he will face from Philadelphia. The Eagles rank third in the NFL with 48 sacks.

Jackson and Peterson have been careless with the football down the stretch this season. Peterson has three fumbles the past two games and played a role in another on a botched handoff with Jackson. Peterson led NFL running backs with nine fumbles in the regular season. He's got to be smarter with the ball. Jackson has to be smarter as well. He can't telegraph passes or handle the ball away from his body when he gets hit, as he's done lately.

The Eagles played inspired football last week against Dallas. They just wanted it more than the Cowboys. Minnesota struggled to get by the Giants, who were playing a lot of backups, and won on a last-second field goal. Like the Ravens in AFC, the Eagles are a wild-card team that no one in the NFC wants to face. Take Eagles.

Indianapolis at San Diego (1.5)

Where: Qualcomm Stadium, San Diego California.

When: Saturday, January 3, 8:00PM.

It's hot. Some think the winner of this game will produce the AFC champion, as two of the league's hottest teams meet. The Colts have won nine straight, the Chargers four. The Colts outscored their four December opponents 120-48. The Chargers outscored their final four opponents 149-73.

It's always close. This is the fourth meeting in the past two years between these teams. The Chargers won twice last year, in the regular season (23-21) and a divisional playoff game (28-24), while the Colts won 23-20 on a last-second field goal in November.

Recently crowned MVP Peyton Manning has 17 TD passes versus three interceptions and a 109.7 passer rating. In the last four games, he completed 90 of his 110 passes (81.8 pct) for 1,054 yards and 8 TDs without an interception. Philip Rivers led the league with a 105.5 passer rating and 34 touchdown passes.

Manning has been the catalyst for the team's nine-game winning streak. During that stretch he's compiled a 109.7 rating by completing better than 72 percent of his passes with 17 TDs and just three INTs. He can have success against San Diego's No. 31-ranked pass if his protection keeps the aggressive Chargers out of his face.

The Colt’s running game has been one of the least productive in club history (79.6 yards per game, 3.4 yards per rush), but it will be important for Manning to turn to RBs Joseph Addai and Dominic Rhodes on occasion. A one-dimensional attack could add bite to San Diego's pass rush.

Manning completed 72 percent of his passes at San Diego in November, his highest rate in his past four meetings with the Chargers. That's because the Chargers harassed him less than usual. Manning's passer rating is 74.6, and he has thrown 11 interceptions and been sacked seven times in those four games

Rivers' only negative this season has been the untimely turnovers -- be it a fumble or interception. A fumble deep in Chargers territory set up a Colts touchdown in the November meeting. He has not turned the ball over in the past two games and has done so just once since the Colts game.

The Chargers are playing so much better up front on both sides of the ball, and they need to keep establishing the run and stopping it. Also, their defensive backs need to set a tone, playing press and keeping the Colts' fine stable of receivers from running free.

If the Chargers are going to win against the Colts, Jacob Hester has to play his best football through the playoffs.

Who is Jacob Hester, you ask? He is a 5'11'' 228 lbs. fullback, a third round draft choice out of LSU. The reason he is so significant in the playoffs is that he does the job that Lorenzo Neal did previously; that is, block for LaDainian Tomlinson.

When Tomlinson has success, Philip Rivers has success at the quarterback position. But like any running back, Tomlinson needs a good point of attack block to get him to and through that second level, the linebacker level, to run the ball effectively.

If that happens, San Diego has a pretty good chance of walking away with the victory. Take Chargers.

By: Aengus Moorehead @ 16:42 | Category: Football  | Comments: 0 | Permalink