Week 6

October 12 2008 @ 08:35

Favorites had a slight edge last week, going 7-5-1, but the hex on double-digit favorites continued.

The Cowboys were the only double-digit favorite last week, giving up 17 points to the visiting Bengals. The Cowboys won the game 31-22, but obviously didn't cover the spread. During the first five weeks, there have been five double-digit favorites. None of them has covered the spread, although three won the game straight-up.

There are two double-digit favorites this week: the Vikings are favored by 13 ½ over the visiting Lions, while the Redskins are favored by 13 ½ over the visiting Rams.

MY RECORD AGAINST THE SPREAD

Last week: 5-9

Season: 36-38

Chicago at Atlanta (2.5)

Last week: Chicago beat Detroit 34-7; Atlanta beat Green Bay 27-24.

The Chicago Bears and Atlanta Falcons were expected to be rebuilding this season. With strong play from the quarterback and running back positions, both teams have emerged as big surprises in the NFL.The NFC North-leading Bears look to win their third straight game, while the Falcons try to build off an impressive victory when they meet Sunday at the Georgia Dome. Rookie quarterback Matt Ryan has had mixed results against the two cover 2 teams he has face. He was successful against Detroit's version and had a tough time against Monte Kiffin's Tampa Bay unit. The Falcons' offensive line has improved its pass blocking, and that has afforded the rookie time to find his receivers. He'll face another test and perhaps better pressure from the Bears. The Bears do give up 223.4 yards passing a game, 23rd in the league. No one had the Falcons going into Lambeau Field and coming out with a victory last week. The Bears likely will be the favorite at the Georgia Dome and toss the Falcons around. But if the Falcons can get the running game going just enough and the wide receivers don't drop passes -- they dropped six against Carolinas and three against Green Bay -- this could be another upset special. Take Falcons.

Detroit at Minnesota (-13.5)

Last week: Detroit lost to Chicago 34-7; Minnesota beat New Orleans 30-27.

On Sunday, the woeful Lions will try to snap a 10-game slide at the Metrodome as they meet the Minnesota Vikings, who will try to build off their biggest win of 2008. Since 2001, Detroit was an NFL-worst 31-84 under general manager Matt Millen before finally firing him on Sept. 24. That change, though, failed to pay immediate dividends on the field. After a 34-7 loss to Chicago last week, the Lions (0-4) remain the only team without a point in the first quarter or a defensive interception at any point of a game. At 2-3, the Vikings are tied with Green Bay for second place in the division behind Chicago (3-2). The Vikings are coming off a win at New Orleans, a team that had Super Bowl aspirations to start the season. The Vikings didn't play well -- their offense struggled most of the night and Adrian Peterson rushed for just 32 yards -- but they took advantage of three key Saints turnovers. Minnesota must pass to establish the run. The tradition formula of running to set up the pass isn't working. The Lions haven't intercepted a pass this season, so Gus Frerotte must take advantage and be aggressive throwing the ball. Opposing quarterbacks have a 122.2 passer rating against the Lions, the NFL's highest figure. The Vikings have swept this series the last five years. Take Vikings.

Carolina at Tampa Bay (-1.5)

Last week: Carolina beat Kansas City 34-0; Tampa Bay lost to Denver 16-13.

The first game against Carolina ended in disaster for the Bucs each of the past two years. In 2006 Tampa Bay lost quarterback Chris Simms for the season to a spleen injury. Last season they lost starting left tackle Luke Petitgout and starting running back Cadillac Williams to knee injuries. None of the three is with the team today. What kind of disaster awaits the Bucs in this one? Well, they could come out of this game injury free and still be hurting, because a loss will drop them two games behind the Panthers in the NFC South title race. This then becomes something of a must win for the Bucs, whose only remaining division matchups are road games against Carolina and Atlanta and a home game against New Orleans. This game will feature a changing of the guard at quarterback for the Bucs, who finished last week on a good note when Jeff Garcia rallied them for a late touchdown after replacing an injured Brian Griese (elbow). Garcia is expected to start Sunday's game. Griese's play has slipped markedly since he took over as the starter a few weeks ago. The Panthers, meanwhile, come into the game riding a wave of success. They pounded away at the Chiefs last week and are 4-1 and off to their best start since reaching the Super Bowl after the 2003 season. They'll be looking to put the Bucs way behind in the race for the division crown. Take Panthers.

Jacksonville at Denver (-3.5)

Last week: Jacksonville lost to Pittsburgh 26-21; Denver beat Tampa Bay 16-13.

Denver regained some equilibrium after a stunning loss in Kansas City by beating a physical Tampa Bay team. It will be deja vu Sunday in terms of playing style from the smash-mouth Jaguars. The Broncos, led by their maligned defense, finally demonstrated that they could hold a team down when the offense isn't in shoot-out mode. The Broncos swarmed to the ball, limited big plays, created turnovers and, perhaps most important, put pressure on the quarterback.

The onus may be on Denver's defense again, with some injuries piling up on the offensive side of the ball that could keep playmakers Eddie Royal and Tony Scheffler out. The defensive challenge will be slightly different this week with Jacksonville QB David Garrard. The Broncos have yet to face someone who's as dangerous escaping the pocket as he is throwing from within it. Denver's defensive ends and linebackers will have to be conscious of their contain responsibilities. But overall, this may be a season-defining game for Jacksonville, coming off another disappointing loss to Pittsburgh. A win sends the Jags into the bye week hoping to get their banged-up roster healthy at 3-3, but 2-4 would be a lengthy climb in the ultra-competitive AFC. Take Jaguars.

Miami at Houston (-2.5)

Last week: Miami beat San Diego 17-10; Houston lost to Indianapolis 31-27.

The Dolphins were once one of the teams the Texans were most likely to defeat this season. That, of course, has changed. The Texans are still looking for their first victory, while the Dolphins are already 2-2 with back-to-back victories over the AFC's two best teams from a year ago -- San Diego and New England. The Texans are trying to rebound from an emotional defeat to the Indianapolis Colts, in which the Texans lost a 17-point lead in the final five minutes to create one of the worst collapses in NFL history. The Texans must see if they can finish a game off. They not only crumbled against the Colts last week, but the previous week the defense was miserable in an overtime loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars. The two teams present an interesting contest. The Dolphins went 1-15 last seasonand is trying to regain the NFL's respect. They are well on their way after convincing victories over the Patriots and Chargers. But they can't afford a slip-up over an 0-4 team. The Texans, on the other hand, thought this was going to be "the season." They had finally gotten to 8-8 last season, and they were sure a winning record and possibly a playoff berth would be in the picture this season. Now, they are simply trying to salvage some of the respect they had started to gain around the league last year. Take Dolphins.

Green Bay at Seattle (-2.5)

Last week: Green Bay lost to Atlanta 27-24; Seattle lost to NY Giants 44-6.

One of these wayward teams will have to find its way back to the winning path. The Seahawks are 1-3 after being drubbed by the Giants last week, while the Packers have squandered a 2-0 start by yielding 27, 30 and 27 points in dropping their past three games -- including a three-point loss to the Atlanta Falcons at Lambeau Field last week.

This is no longer the pupil (Brett Favre) vs. the tutor (Mike Holmgren) matchup that has drawn so much attention when these two teams have met the past three seasons -- and four times in the past five seasons. Favre is now with the Jets, while Holmgren is in his final season as the Seahawks' coach. Instead, this is a battle of a struggling quarterback (the Seahawks' Matt Hasselbeck, who has a 57.7 passer rating) vs. an injured quarterback (the Packers' Aaron Rodgers, who is playing with a sprained shoulder); and two defenses that seem incapable of stopping anyone (the Packers rank No. 26; the Seahawks No. 27).

Something has to give, doesn't it? It does if either of these teams is going to salvage this season and play up to its playoff expectations. Take Packers.

Oakland at New Orleans (-7.5)

Last week: Oakland lost San Diego 28-18 two weeks ago; New Orleans lost to Minnesota 30-27.

New Orleans' offense has been outstanding this season, and the defense has stepped up in recent weeks. It's too early to give up on the season, but a loss to Oakland would be difficult to overcome. Take Saints.

St-Louis at Washington (-13.5)

Last week: St-Louis lost to Buffalo 31-14 two weeks ago; Washington beat Philadelphia 23-17.

The Redskins are ripe for an upset, but the Rams are not the team to do the job. Take Redskins.

Cincinnati at NY Jets (-5.5)

Last week: Cincinnati lost to Dallas 31-22; NY Jets beat Arizona 56-35 two weeks ago.

It appears to have taken Brett Favre only four games with the New York Jets to erase the culture of losing that came with last year's 4-12 squad. It is uncertain if Cincinnati Bengals coach Marvin Lewis can overcome that same problem with his young team. Take Jets.

Baltimore at Indianapolis (-4.5)

Last week: Baltimore lost to Tennessee 13-10; Indianapolis beat Houston 31-27.

The Colts have yet to win in Lucas Oil Stadium, and that can't continue. They are starting to find their rhythm on offense and should be able to make enough plays to outscore a Ravens outfit that has scored 20 points or fewer in three of four games. Take Colts.

Dallas at Arizona (5.5)

Last week: Dallas beat Cincinnati 31-22; Arizona beat Buffalo 41-17.

The Cardinals already are playing up the lack of respect angle and know beating the Cowboys would send a signal to the rest of the league. Not to mention improve their record to 4-2 entering the bye week. The Cowboys, however, are more talented and should win a close one. Take Cardinals.

Philadelphia at San Francisco (4.5)

Last week: Philadelphia lost to Washington 23-17; San Francisco lost to New England 30-21.

San Francisco's previous games don't bode well for a matchup against McNabb and his increasingly healthy group of receivers. Take Eagles.

New England at San Diego (-5.5)

Last week: New England beat San Francisco 30-21; San Diego lost to Miami 17-10.

The Chargers can win this game, and they will be as motivated as they were in their Week 2 game against the Jets, in which they scored 31 first-half points en route to a blowout. But they are facing a better team here. Take Patriots.

NY Giants at Cleveland (-7.5)

Last week: NY Giants beat Seattle 44-6; Cleveland beat Cincinnati 20-12 two weeks ago.

The defending world champs are on a smash-mouth high on both sides of the ball. Cleveland as a viable team remains a shaky theory until the Browns prove otherwise. Take Giants.

Bye: Buffalo, Kansas City, Pittsburgh and Tennessee.