Super Bowl LII Las Vegas Odds & NFL Expert Picks: Philadelphia Eagles vs New England Patriots
Sunday, February 04, 2018
by Liev Jackson

Super Bowl 52 is Here as Philadelphia Meet New England

Super Bowl LII Las Vegas Odds & NFL Expert Picks: Philadelphia Eagles vs New England Patriots

Philadelphia Eagles (15-3) vs
New England Patriots (15-3)

Time: 6:30 PM ET
Date: Sunday, February 4, 2018
Where: U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis, Minnesota
Watch on: NBC
Odds: Patriots -4½
Total O/U: 48

They say that defense wins championships. But what are you supposed to do about the fact that Philadelphia has arguably the most complete defense in the NFL this season and New England has allowed the fewest points in the NFL since week five?

Philadelphia are the underdogs as they’ve been for every game they’ve played in these playoffs. Their defense has been so good, that they’ve only allowed two touchdowns in the two playoff games they’ve been in thus far. The defensive line is the strength of this team and one of the best in the NFL. Fletcher Cox is the anchor and a true star at stopping the run and defending the pass.

The New York Giants showed us the way to beat Tom Brady in the Super Bowl is to make him uncomfortable in the pocket all night, give him hard shots as he’s releasing passes and be able to do it with a four-man rush. With sidekicks like Chris Long, Brandon Graham and Derek Barnett they have just the lineup who can cause New England fits. And then with Malcolm Jenkins, Ronald Darby and company in the secondary they have the kind of players who should be able to keep up with the Patriots bevy of passing threats both out of the backfield and on the sidelines.

What’s more, QB Nick Foles has been a revelation and the Eagles game planning showed that he was capable of winning ugly and pretty in these playoffs. Against Atlanta they kept things as conservative as possible and he pulled off just enough third down passes to keep drives running. Minnesota expected a similar game plan, but instead the Eagles took the reigns off and he beat them deep all-day long. That is going to make game planning that much tougher for the Patriots as they’ll have to decide whether to force quick throws by bringing pressure or sit back and anticipate more of an aerial attack. All told Foles has completed 77.8% of his passes and has three TDs with no interceptions. In his career, he’s thrown five TDs in the playoffs and zero picks.

The Patriots defensive line has been incredible in the playoffs, starting with the play of Trey Flowers who was also a force to be reckoned with in last year’s comeback. They also have an incredible secondary and it was Stephon Gilmore -who came over from Buffalo in the offseason- sealing the game with his pass defense on Dede Westbrook to end the game and seal the Patriots fourth quarter comeback.

Brady has once again been saving his best for last, completing 67% of his passes with five TDs and no interceptions in the playoffs and averaging over 300 yards passing a game.

Danny Amendola was the hero last week, coming up with two fourth quarter TDs after scoring two all season. But what makes this team so dangerous is those heroes are all over the field. From Rob Gronkowski to Deon Lewis to last year’s unsung hero James White, to Brandin Cooks and even Chris Hogan and Phillip Dorsett, Bill Belichick will find the guy the other team least expects and make them pay.

Philadelphia Eagles vs. New England Patriots Betting Odds & Team Stats

Gm# Team
Opener
101 Philadelphia
48
102 New England
-6
 
 
Philadelphia Eagles
 
New England Patriots
15-3
Won 2
35
12-6
28.33
17.33
11
7-3
5-3
9-9
4-6
5-3
Record
Streak
Last Meeting
ATS
Offense
Defense
Diff.
ATS Home
ATS Away
O/U Record
O/U Home
O/U Away
Injuries
15-3
Won 5
28
12-6
28.72
18.33
10.39
6-4
6-2
8-10
6-4
2-6

Philadelphia Eagles vs. New England Patriots Betting Trends & Predictions

Philadelphia:
Philadelphia is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Philadelphia is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 15 of Philadelphia's last 20 games on the road
Philadelphia is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 games
Philadelphia is 14-2 SU in its last 16 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Philadelphia's last 9 games

New England:
New England is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games at home
New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 8 of New England's last 12 games at home
New England is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 games
New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of New England's last 7 games

The Bottom Line:
New England is -4½ point favorites after the line started at -6. I do think Foles will be up to the task of playing his best and I also think Eagles coach Doug Pederson’s aggressive play calling and willingness to go for it on fourth down should maximize every Eagles opportunity. Do I think it’ll be enough to dethrone the champs? No I do not. Brady has too many weapons and all that experience to his name. But I think a field goal decides it. The Pick: Patriots 24-21.

Liev Jackson NFL Predictions: Philadelphia +4½
Total O/U: Under 48
NFL Record: Season 2018: 17-20-0   /   -4.60 Units

 

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Tags
bill belichick - brandin cooks - brandon graham - chris hogan - chris long - danny amendola - dede westbrook - derek barnett - james white - malcolm jenkins

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