Sunday Night Football Vegas Odds & Liev Jackson NFL Picks: Atlanta Falcons vs New England Patriots
Saturday, October 21, 2017
by Liev Jackson

Atlanta Visits New England in Super Bowl Rematch

Sunday Night Football Vegas Odds & Liev Jackson NFL Picks: Atlanta Falcons vs New England Patriots

Atlanta Falcons vs. New England Patriots

Falcons: 3-2-0 (2-0-0 V)
Patriots: 4-2-0 (1-2-0 H)
When: 8:30 PM ET, Sunday, October 22, 2017
Where: Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, Massachusetts
TV: NBC

Last February the Patriots and Falcons were clearly the two best teams in the NFL. And we all know what happened next as New England came back from the largest deficit in Super Bowl history to win the game 34-28.

Now both teams face off Sunday night in what was expected to be the marquee matchup of the regular season. And while it may be a great game, both teams have shown to have some pretty serious issues in the first part of the season.

Atlanta’s offense carried them to the big game last year, but offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan moved on to become the 49ers coach and they have been inconsistent under new OC Steve Sarkisian. They started strong, averaging 29 PPG in their first three games, but have scored 17 in each of the last two, both losses to the Bills and Dolphins.

WR Julio Jones is their best weapon, but he’s been banged up even if he’s played through it. QB Matt Ryan is the defending MVP, but he’s thrown just six TDs this year and has six INTs as well.

The defense on the other hand really started to come on in the second half of last season and they look to be on the same positive trajectory this year as they’ve allowed just 312.4 YPG which is 10th in the league.

New England had the stingiest defense last year, allowing 15.6 PPG, a full 2.2 points better than number two on the list. Their 326.4 YPG was eighth best.

This year they have yet to hold a team to less than 400 YPG on the way to allowing a league worst -by more than 30 yards- 440.7 YPG. That’s the bad news. The good news is that in the past two weeks they’ve figured out how to be a bend but don’t break kind of team. The Patriots beat Tampa 19-14 two weeks ago and the Jets 24-17 last week.

Offensively, New England with QB Tom Brady are looking as good as ever. He leads the league with 1959 yards passing coming into this week and he has 13TDs to two INTs. The Pats have however turned the ball over four times the past two weeks, versus one turnover through the first four games.

New England, with the loss of WR Julian Edelman and the addition of WR Chris Hogan have become more of a downfield offense. Brady therefore is also taking more of a beating as he’s been sacked 16 times in six games. Last year he was sacked 15 times in 12 games.

The Falcons are 12th averaging 24.2 PPG and 13th allowing 21.8 PPG.

The Patriots are 5th scoring 28.7 PPG and 30th allowing 26.5 PPG

Bovada has the Patriots listed as 3½-point favorites and the game's total is sitting at 56½ according to MyBookie.

On the NFL Football Moneyline Odds at BetOnline Patriots are the Favorite at -170.

Atlanta Falcons vs. New England Patriots Sunday Night Football Vegas Odds

Gm# Team
Opener
475 Atlanta
53½
476 New England
-4½
  Moneyline
+163/-190

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New England won its last outing, a 24-17 result against the Jets on October 15. The Patriots failed to cover in that game as a -9-point favorite, while the 41 combined points took the game UNDER the total.

Last time out for Atlanta, they were a 20-17 loser as they battled the Dolphins at home. The Falcons failed to cover in the match as a -14-point favorite, while 37 combined points moved the game UNDER for totals bettors.

Atlanta Falcons vs. New England Patriots Sunday Night Football Vegas Odds & Trends

Atlanta:
Atlanta is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
Atlanta is 9-3 SU in its last 12 games
The total has gone OVER in 19 of Atlanta's last 24 games

New England:
New England is 18-7 ATS in its last 25 games
New England is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
New England is 14-2 SU in its last 16 games

Next up:
Atlanta at New York Sunday, October 29
New England home to Los Angeles Sunday, October 29

The Bottom Line:
New England are -3.5 favorites playing at home in a Super Bowl rematch. This should be an emotional game and a measuring stick game for both teams. I trust New England at home and see that their defense is slowly but surely getting better. It’s time for them to step up. The Pick: Patriots 42-24.

Liev Jackson NFL Picks: New England -3½ & Over 56½ at Bovada

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Category

Tags
atlanta falcons - chris hogan - julian edelman - julio jones - kyle shanahan - matt ryan - new england patriots - steve sarkisian - tom brady

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