PGA Golf Odds & Predictions: Day set for 2015 rerun as he defends at Farmers Insurance
Wednesday, January 27, 2016
by Aengus Moorehead

PGA Golf Odds & Predictions: Day set for 2015 rerun as he defends at Farmers Insurance

The Story:
The PGA TOUR makes its annual stop in La Jolla, California, for the Farmers Insurance Open where players will take on the North and South courses at iconic Torrey Pines. The host South Course ranked as the fourth toughest course (non-majors) on TOUR in 2015 and has not produced a first-time winner in 25 years.

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The event is played over two courses, with the entire field playing the North and South Courses over the first two days, before the weekend play is staged entirely on the tougher, longer, South Course.

It will be intersting to see how defending Champion Jason Day performs this year after what was a quite an incredible finish to 2015. After last year’s win in San Diego, it took him more than six months to win again but he then went barmy - winning four out of six events including the PGA Championship. He played some of the best golf witnessed in many a year then and if he can get back to that level, his price of 7/1 will look generous, even in a field of this quality.

Having finished third in the TOC and second at the Sony Open, Brandt Snedeker is trending towards a second success at Torrey Pines. He shot 61 in his very first competitive round here back in 2007 having birdied the first 10 holes and he's played well here on many occasions since. His form figures read 3-MC-9-42-2-9-1-2-MC-19 and he looks to have a great chance. He's already won the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am twice and loves California.

Without an outing since November, Justin Rose is impossible to fancy this weekend and he’s also surprisingly bad at Torrey Pines, with two top 25s, but no top 10s, in six trips to the Farmers. Phil Mickelson makes much more appeal.

Lefty won this event back-to-back in 2000 and 2001 and he finished runner-up to Bubba Watson in 2011 so he has plenty of course form and he is the hometown favorite. He finished third last week at the CareerBuilder Challenge and if he can build on that he may well contend but he hasn't won in a long while now and age may be taking its toll.

Because of the length of the South course, distance is a big deal. It brings par 5 scoring opportunities into play. From a statistical standpoint, a solid total driving rank with an emphasis on distance over accuracy would be tasty.

My Top Three:
Jason Day: +650
Can anybody even remember the last time the defending champ didn’t finish a tournament inside of the top 10? His last three starts at Torrey Pines went T9-T2-Win. He shook off the holiday/baby rust at the Hyundai TOC, and was looking like the real Jason Day by week’s end. With a couple more weeks of practice reps in, Day should be just fine in his title defense.

Brandt Snedeker: +1600
On fire with a T3 and a P2 in the Hyundai Tournament of Champions and the Sony Open to open the season and throw in a playoff win here back in 2012 then Snedeker is your man this weekend. During a 7-year stretch from 2007-2013, Snedeker was top-10 in 6 of his 8 appearances in tournaments played at Torrey Pines (including a 9th place finish at the 2008 U.S. Open).

Gary Woodland: +6600
In three straight years, Woodland has made the cut at Torrey Pines and as the weekend progresses on the South Course, his length will be an absolute advantage for him. Woodland has been discussing his body transformation and how well he’s felt, specifically this season. It’s good. So far in the 2015-2016 season, Woodland is number one in driving distance, averaging over 323 yards per drive.

Propping up:

  1. Take Jason Day -180 over Rickie Fowler +140
  2. Take Brandt Snedeker for top-10 finish +135
  3. Take Francisco Molinari for top European +1100
  4. Take Emiliano Grillo -125 over Smylie Kaufman -105

Here are the odds for the top field:

Jason Day   +650
Rickie Fowler   +1100
Dustin Johnson   +1600
Brandt Snedeker   +1600
Justin Rose   +2000
Patrick Reed   +2200
Jimmy Walker   +2500
Phil Mickelson   +1800
Hideki Matsuyama   +2800
Bill Haas   +3300
Charles Howell III   +4000
J.B. Holmes   +3300
Paul Casey   +4500
Emiliano Grillo   +5000
Gary Woodland   +6600
Graham DeLaet   +5000
Harris English   +6600
Hunter Mahan   +8000
Marc Leishman   +4000
Shane Lowry   +6000
Brendan Steele   +5000
Brian Harman   +6600
Cameron Tringale   +8000
Daniel Berger   +6000
Danny Lee   +6600
Fabian Gomez   +6600
Jamie Lovemark   +5000
Matt Jones   +6600
Patrick Rodgers   +6600
Scott Piercy   +6600
Si Woo Kim   +6600
Smylie Kaufman   +6600
Tony Finau   +6600

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brandt snedeker - bubba watson - jason day - justin rose - phil mickelson

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