NLCS Game 4 Baseball Betting Prediction: San Francisco vs St. Louis

Thursday, October 18, 2012

Mike Stewart

  San Francisco Giants at St. Louis Cardinals
When: 8:00 PM ET, Thursday, October 18, 2012
Where: Busch Stadium, St. Louis, Missouri
TV: 8 p.m. ET, FOX

Opening Line: St. Louis -135
Current Line: St. Louis -135
MLB Betting Lines from: Bovada Sportsbook

The St. Louis Cardinals hold a 2-1 lead in the National League Championship Series, but they could be without hot-hitting Carlos Beltran in Game 4. Beltran, who is batting .414 this postseason with three homers, is listed as day-to-day after exiting Wednesday’s game in the second inning with a strained left knee. Matt Carpenter replaced Beltran and promptly hit a two-run homer to help the Cardinals win 3-1 in a game that was delayed three hours and 28 minutes because of rain. After the loss, Giants manager Bruce Bochy announced that Tim Lincecum and Barry Zito will start the team’s next two games, with struggling Madison Bumgarner moving to the bullpen. Bumgarner is 0-2 with an 11.25 ERA in two postseason starts after ending the regular season with a 5.89 ERA in his last seven outings.

Giants right fielder Hunter Pence will likely keep his starting job, but he might be moved down in the batting order after going hitless in four at-bats in Game 3. Pence is 5-for-31 (.161) with four strikeouts and no RBI this postseason. First baseman Brandon Belt, who is 3-for-11 with no extra base hits in the NLCS, might be rested Thursday so Buster Posey can play first and Hector Sanchez can catch Lincecum. The Cardinals are hoping for a long outing from Adam Wainwright in Game 4 after using four relievers on Wednesday. The Cardinals’ bullpen has worked 37 1/3 innings in nine postseason games, and closer Jason Motte recorded the first two-inning save of his career in Game 3. He threw just 19 pitches, however, so he could be available in a save situation Thursday.

PITCHING MATCHUP: Giants RH Tim Lincecum (1-0, 1.08 ERA) vs. Cardinals RH Adam Wainwright (0-0, 7.88)

Lincecum is set to make his first start of the postseason after allowing one run on three hits with nine strikeouts in three relief appearances. Beltran is 7-for-14 with a homer against Lincecum, who is 5-1 with a 2.89 ERA in seven career starts against St. Louis. The two-time Cy Young award winner had an uncharacteristically poor regular season, especially on the road, where he went 6-6 with a 6.43 ERA in 16 outings.

Wainwright looks to rebound from the shortest start of his career after allowing six runs over 2 1/3 innings against Washington last Friday in Game 5 of the Division Series. He’s 2-4 with a 3.04 ERA is six career starts against the Giants, including 1-1 with a 2.13 ERA in two outings this season. Pence is 11-for-38 (.289) with a homer against Wainwright, who is making the first LCS start of his seven-year major league career.

1. Since 1985, 17 of the 21 teams to take a 2-1 lead in the NLCS have gone on to advance to the World Series.

2. Giants 2B Marco Scutaro started Wednesday after leaving Game 2 with a strained left hip and had two hits. He’s 6-for-13 with two RBI in the series.

3. Wednesday’s win gave the Cardinals 40 postseason victories in the last 10 seasons, tied with the Yankees for most in the majors during that stretch.

Recent Trends on San Francisco:

• Under is 6-2-1 in SF last 9 playoff road games.
• SF are 25-10 in their last 35 road games.
• Over is 37-18-2 in SF last 57 on grass.

Recent Trends on St. Louis:

• STL are 8-3 in their last 11 playoff games.
• Over is 8-3 in STL last 11 playoff games.
• STL are 18-7 in their last 25 overall.

Las Vegas Sports Betting MLB Prediction: San Francisco +125

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Tags

adam wainwright - barry zito - brandon belt - bruce bochy - buster posey - carlos beltran - hector sanchez - hunter pence - jason motte - madison bumgarner