Longshots Betting and Vegas Odds to Win the 2012 Belmont Stakes

Thursday, June 07, 2012

by Bovada Racebook

The last horse to sweep the American Triple Crown was AFFIRMED back in 1978, but there have been numerous upsets in the Belmont Stakes that go beyond the defeats suffered by the 11 horses who came to New York with a chance to do what Affirmed accomplished.

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Restricting the many longshot Belmont winners to those who paid 10-1 or better still leaves a relatively long list of 10 long range bombers:

TEMPERENCE HILL at 53-1 in 1980; COLONIAL AFFAIR at 13-1 in 1993; LEMON DROP KID at 28-1 in 1999; COMMENDABLE at 18-1 in 2000; SARAVA at 70-1 in 2002; BIRDSTONE at 36-1 in 2004; DA’ TARA at 38-1 in 2008; SUMMER BIRD at 11-1 in 2009; DROSSELMEYER at 13-1 in 2010, and RULER ON ICE at 24-1 last year.

Of those, Lemon Drop Kid ended CHARISMATIC’s Triple Crown bid; Sarava did the same to WAR EMBLEM; as Birdstone did to SMARTY JONES and Da’ Tara stopped BIG BROWN.

Given these trends, it only makes sense to examine the potential longshot bombers in this Belmont Stakes.

So here is the complete Belmont Stakes field in post position order with their program numbers, jockeys and respective morning line odds. Obviously the main contenders are ILL HAVE ANOTHER, (4-5 in the morning line); DULLAHAN, (5-1); UNION RAGS (6-1) and PAYNTER, (8-1).

But for the nine other horses listed at 10-1 or higher, I have accented the positive more than their actual performances may be worth. Should any of these longshots win on Saturday, you probably will learn what they brought into the race in the next day’s newspapers. But, with the comments below, you will be able to say you read it here first.

#1 STREET LIFE | J. Lezcano | 12-1
Was an encouraging third with first time blinkers in the nine furlong Peter Pan Stakes over the track, May 12 to suggest he belongs here. . . Sired by a Derby winner (Street Sense) out of a mare sired by a Derby winner (Grindstone).

#2 UNSTOPPABLE U | J. Alvarado | 30-1
Undefeated in two lifetime starts for trainer Ken McPeek, who scored the biggest upset in the history of this 144 year old classic race with Sarava in 2002.

#3 UNION RAGS | J. Velasquez | 6-1
Would not be a big upset given his win in the Grade-1 Champagne on this track last fall; his early season hype and troubled trips in the Florida Derby and Kentucky Derby.

#4 ATIGUN | J. Leparoux | 30-1
Uncoupled Ken McPeek trained stablemate to Unstoppable U who has won three of nine, including his last outing over allowance types at Churchill Downs on a muddy track. Handles dry surfaces too and has trained well at Belmont.

#5 DULLAHAN | J. Castellano | 5-1
Two-time Grade-1 winner was a fast closing third in the Kentucky Derby. Seems a logical, obvious threat to I’ll Have Another.

#6 FIVE SIXTEEN | R. Napravnik | 50-1
Maiden race winner was distant fourth in lone start against winners Apr. 18 and while he is a son of INVASOR, one of the best horses of the past 20 years and will be ridden by talented jockey Rosie Napravnik, should this one actually upset this field, I might give up the game.

#7 RAVELO'S BOY | A. Solis | 50-1
Was a fair fourth in the Sam F. Davis Stakes two races back at Tampa Bay Downs and did show some improvement in recent workouts at Calder racetrack in Florida after a dull fifth place finish in the Tampa Bay Derby.

#8 GUYANA STAR DWEEJ | K. Desormeaux | 50-1
Former $25,000 maiden claimer needed eight starts before he won a maiden race and followed that performance with a modest second place finish against allowance rivals over this track. That’s about as positive as I can stretch his relatively weak past performance profile.

#9 PAYNTER | M. Smith | 8-1
Rapidly developing, very lightly raced colt trained by Hall of Famer Bob Baffert, won a highly rated allowance race on the Preakness undercard May 19. Certainly has the speed to lead these for at least a mile. After that it’s anybody’s guess.

#10 Optimizer | C. Nakatani | 20-1
His one good race this year was a fast closing second to SECRET CIRCLE in the 1-1/16 mile, $500,000 Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park. Showed very little in the Arkansas Derby, Kentucky Derby and the Preakness. Still, Optimizer is bred to run this far and longer and is trained by Hall of Famer D. Wayne Lukas who put over Commendable in 2000.

#11 I'LL HAVE ANOTHER | M. Gutierrez | 4-5
Has won his last four with strong rallies from mid pack and/or from a stalking position and seems to be coming into this race ready to complete the sweep. But the same was true for several who failed to perform at their best in “The Test of the Champion.”

#12 MY ADONIS | R. Dominguez | 20-1
Was second in the Gotham to HANSEN in March and a close third at 3-10 odds in a non Graded Stakes at Pimlico on May 5. Combined, those are light credentials for this. Nevertheless, he is owned and trained by the same connections who brought us RULER ON ICE last year and that is food for thought.

All that said, I will not be surprised if Dullahan, or Union Rags, or even Paynter can upset Ill Have Another on Saturday. But, I will be shocked if any horse other than the four pre-race favorites actually adds his name to the group of unheralded longshot bombers who won this, the final and longest race in America’s popular Triple Crown.

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Category

• Horse Racing

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bob baffert - dullahan - ill have another - paynter - rosie napravnik - union rags