Liev Jackson NFL Predictions: Cowboys Season is Once Again on the Line with Visit to Green Bay
Sunday, December 13, 2015
by Liev Jackson

Liev Jackson NFL Predictions: Cowboys Season is Once Again on the Line with Visit to Green Bay

Dallas Cowboys vs. Green Bay Packers

Cowboys: 4-8 SU,4-8 ATS
Packers: 8-4 SU,7-5 ATS
When:
4:25 PM ET, Sunday, December 13, 2015
Where: Lambeau Field, Green Bay, Wisconsin
TV: FOX

Last Monday the Dallas Cowboys saved their season –barely- with a 19-16 last minute victory on the road in Washington. It was an ugly victory that saw the score tied at 9 until less than two minutes was left in the game. The teams then traded scores with Dallas getting the last laugh. It was their first win of the season in eight tries with a QB not named Tony Romo at the helm.

Now they head up to Green Bay on a short week for a rematch of last year’s memorable playoff matchup. We all remember that game from the memorable catch that wasn’t a catch made by Dez Bryant that for all intense purposes would have tied the game with less than five minutes to go in the game. With that 4th down play reversed, the Packers held onto the lead and won the game.

This is one of those cases where one can say ‘my what a difference a year makes’. That game featured two teams firing on all cylinders. This year both teams are struggling in a major way offensively. The Cowboys with Matt Cassell at quarterback have had one game out of five where they scored in the twenties. In the other four games they have averaged 14.25 points a game.

But the team has managed to stay in almost all of their games due to a defence that has kept them close –at least until the 4th quarter. The only exceptions were against the Patriots and Panthers. The average margin in all their other eight games since week three is six points (including their two victories against the Dolphins and Redskins).

The Packers were incredibly fortunate to come out of last week’s game against the Lions with a victory. That one was due to one of the worst defensive coverages you’ll ever see on a last second Hail Mary. And the fact that they scored 27 points masks the fact that this team has been struggling to score points most weeks ever since their 29-10 loss to the Broncos in week 8. Detroit had that game in the bag and they essentially gave it away.

A big part of the problem has been a rushing game that has mostly disappeared the last six weeks. In four of the six games their totals are between 47 and 90 yards. They are 1-3 in those games, with the only win being the miracle in Detroit. The other problem has been that defences seem to have figured out a way to neutralize a passing game that is sorely lacking #1 receiver Jordy Nelson who went down for the season in the preseason.

Perhaps TE Richard Rodgers is the new answer. He certainly came up big last week with 8-146-1 totals and the Hail Mary catch. Before that game he did not have a game with more than 45 yards in his two year career.

On the whole Dallas is 29th in the league with 18.6 PPG and Green Bay is 12th at 24.1. Defensively the Packers are 6th with 19.6 PPG and 19th in yards allowed (356.8). The Cowboys are 15th in points allowed (23.1) and 5th in yards allowed (326.5).

The Cowboys are missing QB Romo, RB Lance Dunbar and CB Orlando Scandrick.

The Packers are coming off a 10 day break and are without WR Nelson, C Corey Linsley (doubtful), and LB Sam Barrington.

Bovada has the Packers favorites at 7- point favorites and the total sitting at 43 according to MyBookie.ag

On the NFL Football Moneyline Odds at BetOnline Packers are the Favorite at -275.

Dallas Cowboys vs. Green Bay Packers Odds & Betting Lines

Gm# Team
Opener
129 Dallas
43½
130 Green Bay
-7
  Moneyline
+230/-290

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Green Bay won its last outing, a 27-23 result against the Lions on December 03. The Packers covered in that game as a -2.5-point favorite, while the 50 combined points took the game OVER the total.

Dallas was a 19-16 winner in its last match on the road against the Redskins. They covered the +2-point spread as underdogs, while the total score of 35 sent UNDER bettors to the payout window.

Dallas Cowboys vs. Green Bay Packers NFL Betting Odds & Trends

Dallas:
Dallas is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games
Dallas is 2-8 SU in its last 10 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Dallas's last 6 games

Green Bay:
Green Bay is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games
Green Bay is 16-6 SU in its last 22 games
Green Bay is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games

Next up:
Dallas home to New York Saturday, December 19
Green Bay at Oakland Sunday, December 20

The Bottom Line: Most experts are writing off the Cowboys in this game, but I don’t see it. They have the survival, revenge and nobody believes in us factors all in their favor. Plus they finally won that elusive game with Cassell at QB. Seven points is a big spread with this much on the line. The Pick: Cowboys 21-17.

Liev NFL Prediction: Dallas +7 at MyBookie

 

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Tags
corey linsley - dallas cowboys - dez bryant - green bay packers - lance dunbar - matt cassell - orlando scandrick - richard rodgers - sam barrington - tony romo

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