Liev Jackson NFL Free Picks: Game of the Week Features Cincinnati Visiting Denver on MNF
Sunday, December 27, 2015
by Liev Jackson

Liev Jackson NFL Free Picks: Game of the Week Features Cincinnati Visiting Denver on MNF

Cincinnati Bengals vs. Denver Broncos

Bengals: 11-3 SU,11-2-1 ATS
Broncos: 10-4 SU,7-5-2 ATS
When:
8:30 PM ET, Monday, December 28, 2015
Where: Sports Authority Field at Mile High, Denver, Colorado
TV: ESPN

Two backup QBs are set to face off in the biggest game of the week as the Bengals travel to Mile High Stadium to take on the Broncos.

In his first ever start as a professional; A.J. McCarron took care of business in a 24-14 victory over the 49ers. His coaches didn’t ask him to do too much and the game was never in doubt. But he made the throws when he needed to, especially in the second quarter as the Bengals built up a 21-0 lead. In the second half he became a game manager and let the defence do its thing as they coasted to victory.

They forced three interceptions, had four sacks and a forced fumble.

The challenge will be much greater this week against a team that has looked pretty good in Peyton Manning’s absence.

Brock Osweiler has put up much better numbers than Manning. In five starts vs. Manning’s nine he has 8TDs to Manning’s. He has thrown 4 INTs to Manning’s 17. The QB rating is 84.9 vs. 67.6.

The one place he hasn’t been as proficient is where it really counts, which is the won-loss column. He started strong with three straight wins, but now is 3-2 at the helm. The Broncos were 7-2 with Manning in charge.

The big problem in the two losses to the Raiders and Steelers were the second half adjustments. He took his team into the halftime locker room leading in both games including 27-13 against Pittsburgh. But the team was held off the scoresheet in the second half in both games.

That speaks to a young player still figuring out the position and how the NFL may be catching up to what coach Gary Kubiak is aiming to do with him at QB.

With Osweiler, the Broncos have averaged 20.6 PPG. With such a small sample of games there is no rhyme or reason to those numbers. The Broncos have had two home games and in the snow put up 30 points on 6th ranked New England and 12 points on 20th ranked Oakland. The other high scoring game was against 11th ranked Pittsburgh last week (27 points). But against 19th ranked San Diego and 21st ranked Chicago they scored 17 points in each game.

The defence has been mostly great and is #1 in yards allowed (279.9) and fourth in points allowed (18.4/G). They have had trouble against the best offences lately. Since November, against the Chiefs, Pats, Steelers and Andrew Luck led Colts the opposition has averaged 28.5 PPG and the team is 1-3.

The Bengals are the number one defensive team in the league at 17.4 PP. In winning three of their last four they gave up 33 points to Pittsburgh in the game Andy Dalton was injured on the first possession and 24 points to the Rams, Browns and 49ers collectively.

They are the 4th ranked scoring team in the league at 27 PPG.

AJ Green had his worst week of the season last week as he left with a back injury after one catch for 37 yards. He is probable for this week. Breakout TE star Tyler Eifert missed the game. He is also out this week with a concussion

Bovada has the Broncos favorites at 3½-point favorites and the total sitting at 39½ according to MyBookie.ag

On the NFL Football Moneyline Odds at BetOnline Broncos are the Favorite at -180.

Cincinnati Bengals vs. Denver Broncos Odds & Betting Lines

Gm# Team
Opener
131 Cincinnati
42
132 Denver
-3½
  Moneyline
+165/-185

Live NFL Football Odds & Scores - Click here

Denver lost its last outing, a 34-27 result against the Steelers on December 20. The Broncos earned a push in that game as a +7-point underdog, while the 61 combined points took the game OVER the total.

Cincinnati won its last outing, a 24-14 result against the 49ers on December 20. The Bengals covered in that game as a -7-point favorite, while the 38 combined points took the game UNDER the total.

Cincinnati Bengals vs. Denver Broncos NFL Betting Odds & Trends

Cincinnati:
Cincinnati is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Cincinnati is 11-3 SU in its last 14 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Cincinnati's last 8 games

Denver:
Denver is 2-4-1 ATS in its last 7 games
Denver is 10-4 SU in its last 14 games
Denver is 12-3 SU in its last 15 games at home

Next up:
Cincinnati home to Baltimore Sunday, January 3
Denver home to San Diego Sunday, January 3

The Bottom Line: If Osweiler’s stats show anything it’s that he shows up on the biggest stage. The Pittsburgh game was a perfect test for what to expect here. Mc Carron is the great unknown and he’s on the road in Mile High. If you think with McCarron in charge the Bengals are still a very dangerous offence the pick should be Cincinnati. But the safest bet here is the under,and also for Denver to cover. The Pick: Denver 20-10.

Liev NFL Prediction: Denver -3½ at MyBookie


Category

Tags
a.j. mccarron - aj green - andy dalton - brock osweiler - cincinnati bengals - denver broncos - gary kubiak - peyton manning - tyler eifert

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